This thesis is developed in the context of investigating the health co-benefit of decarbonisation. Health co-benefit refers to the collateral benefit which arises from decarbonisation policies external to the main intended benefit of climate change mitigation via the reduction of Greenhouse Gases (GHG). Health co-benefit of this kind often arises via the corresponding reduction in air pollutants when GHG is reduced. This is because GHG and air pollutants such as particulate matter are often derived from the same source - the combustion of fossil fuels which drive economic activities. Existing literature in the health co-benefit of decarbonisation fail to give consider the effect of socio-economic variables such as income and education on the expected health co-benefits, and this is where the thesis begins. The backdrop of health co-benefit modelling and the need to incorporate socioeconomic considerations provide the impetus to develop a health economics model. However, in many ways this health economic model deviates from the health co-benefit studies methodologically and instead follows the tradition of the Health Capital Model developed by Grossman (1972). This is due to the micro-economic nature of this health economic model which employs standard economic theory and technique of optimisation, which differs from the fundamentally empirically driven approach of health co-benefit studies. The health economic model developed here is an opportunity to address some of the short-comings of the Health Capital Model. The health co-benefit background however provides some concrete context and inspiration for the application of the theoretical insights which can be drawn from this model. The main contribution of the model develop in this thesis from the theoretical point of view lies in the division of the lifecycle analysis of health into two distinct but related phases of childhood and adulthood. The two phases are specified with different assumptions reflecting the differing characteristics of childhood and adulthood. The most important distinction between the two phases is the manner in which investment in health capital (using time and goods resources) enters the modelling framework. In the childhood phase, health investment augments or increases the existing stock of health capital, while during the adulthood phase health investment prevents the decline of health but does not increase its stock. I believe this better reflects the biological behaviour of health over one's life than the HCM which implicitly assumes that new stock of health and existing stock are perfectly substitutable. In my model, this substitutability is possible only during the childhood corresponding with the body and mental development. On the other hand, during adulthood when them body no longer grows, health investment may only preserve health. After developing the model, I went about to test it empirically. I used the Understanding Society youth questionnaire to test the child model and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) to test the adulthood model. Due to the way that optimisation problem was specified, the terminal end time conditional in the optimal control model became another endogenous variable. This variable is treated empirically as the life expectancy at the national level. I find that in general the empirical data strongly supports the theoretical propositions of my model. It should be noted here that since the main contribution of this thesis is in theoretical development, the empirical efforts were designed primarily with the intention of validating the propositions of the model, and not really for direct policy application. This is also reinforced by the use of ordered logit models where the coefficients of the independent variables on the dependent variable generally have no meaning, where we only concentrate on the signs of the relationship. Having successfully developed the model, it is applied in two policy settings. Firstly, through reformulation of the model gives the inclusion of socio-economic variables in the measure of Relative Risk (RR) a theoretical grounding. We utilised the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to compute RR across 180 countries in the world and regressed with World Bank data on ambient particulate matter pollution as well as GDP per capita. The former variable represents the exogenous rate of depreciation while the latter socio-economic variables, particularly income. I find that the RR is negatively associated with the GDP per capita at the national level. Using the estimated coefficients with the help of Professor Crawford-Brown we attempted to forecast how GDP per capita will interact with the health co-benefits of decarbonisation under a range of future scenarios. The second application of the model is in its use to predict the inequality implications of decarbonisation policy. This is performed by taking the second order partial derivative of an endogenous variable such as health, as will be described in detail later. This approach is sufficiently flexible to accommodate the prediction of inequality over range of policies and variables. The inequality implications and predictions according to this model are not tested empirically here. However, they are perhaps the most fruitful area for future research.

ENGLISH ABTRACT: This study considers the policy options for the accelerated decarbonisation of travel and tourism (or ‘travelism’) over the next four decades. The concept of ‘travelism’ approaches aviation, travel and tourism as an integrated value chain. The value chain’s carbon footprint and possible mitigation options (or ‘wedges’) are analysed through the lenses of the three pillars of sustainable development (i.e. social, environmental and economic values), which represent the core of a conceptual model for green, low-carbon travelism growth. This model provides a systems perspective on the ‘what’, ‘why’ and ‘how’ of the envisioned low-carbon transformation. Travelism is both a vector and victim of climate change, and simultaneously makes a significant economic and social contribution to society at large. ‘Doing nothing’ to face up to the challenges of climate change is therefore not an option, nor is the ‘slowing down’ of travelism demand. Yet, the approaching clash of trajectories between business-as-usual travelism growth and climate stabilisation goals provides strong motivation for ‘decoupling’ (i.e. decarbonising travelism). Travelism has to contribute its fair share to keeping global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, while allowing development to proceed sustainably. Consequently, mitigation ‘wedges’ are identified for three travelism sub-clusters with quantifiable carbon footprints (i.e. accommodation, land transport and air transport). A combination of public policy approaches (i.e. information-based, incentive-based and directive-based) are identified that can help to overcome implementation barriers for those cost-efficient mitigation options with significant carbon abatement potential and other sustainable-development co-benefits. In the accommodation cluster, green building design, energy-efficiency measures and renewable-energy deployment are priorities. In the land transport cluster, passenger modal shifts, more efficient vehicles and low-carbon fuels as well as improved public transport in ‘green cities’ represent the most promising mitigation options. In both these clusters, integrated planning and alignment with other policy domains, best-practice sharing, consumer education, vertical supply chain partnerships and a mix of government incentives and regulatory standards are required. In the air transport cluster, mitigation options related to operational, infrastructural and technology-driven efficiency improvements represent the ‘low-hanging fruit’ for the next two decades. However, once this emissions reduction potential has been optimised, only two (known) game changers remain: firstly, the development and commercialisation of secondgeneration (i.e. sustainable) drop-in biofuels as substitute for high-carbon kerosene jet fuel, and, secondly, the introduction of a market-based mechanism (MBM). Based on the analysis of the technical and financial feasibility, sustainability and scalability of the biofuels mitigation wedge, it is concluded that there is no either/or choice between drop-in biofuels and MBMs. A risk management approach requires pursuance of both. Creating a global aviation biofuels industry will be no small endeavour, though. It will require a package of public policies, funding and partnerships at various stages of the technology life cycle and throughout a long value chain. Besides carbon abatement, local economic development and job creation co-benefits in developing and emerging economies are also achievable. An MBM for aviation emissions should ideally be designed as a global, ‘open’ emissions-trading scheme that (i) provides a progressive price incentive for the uptake of sustainable biofuels as well as pursuance of the other mitigation options, and (ii) creates flexibility for the aviation sector to offset its unavoidable emissions with lower-cost emissions reductions from other economic sectors.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第24924号 / エネ博第466号 / 新制||エネ||87(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 MCLELLAN Benjamin, 教授 宇根﨑 博信, 教授 河本 晴雄 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

La question de la réduction des émissions de CO2 est aujourd’hui clairement posée dans le monde entier et la COP21 a mis en évidence les nouvelles exigences internationales auxquelles les pays pourraient ou devraient être confrontées à court terme. L’objectif fondamental de la thèse consiste à contribuer à l’identification des solutions possibles dans le domaine de la production croissante d’électricité dans un pays en développement, le Vietnam, en tenant compte de la nécessaire réduction des sources d’énergie carbonées. Dans ce but, plusieurs scénarios concernant le développement du secteur électrique au Vietnam sont construits en vue de mesurer les effets des choix relatifs à la production d’électricité sur les émissions de CO2.Après avoir présenté un panorama de la situation énergétique du Vietnam et mis en évidence l’augmentation rapide de la consommation d’électricité du fait de la pression démographique et de l’expression de nouveaux besoins, la question des importations de charbon et de gaz et celle de la production de nouvelles forme d’énergie sont posées, au regard des contraintes économiques, mais aussi environnementales. Les réflexions théoriques, l’étude de la construction des plans directeurs d’électricité, l’analyse des outils économiques disponibles et l’application des modèles de la prévision de la demande d’énergie permettent de comprendre la complexité du « pari électrique » auquel est confronté le Vietnam. Après une présentation des instruments quantitatifs potentiels de simulation, ELECsim a été choisi pour la modélisation du secteur électrique au Vietnam. Les scénarios se basent sur plusieurs hypothèses concernant l’évolution de la croissance économique et de la démographie, le prix de l’énergie, le développement des technologies de production d’électricité, la valeur déclarée du carbone, les taux d’actualisation et les taux de change. Le Vietnam peut d’abord maîtriser la croissance de la demande par une action forte sur l’efficacité énergétique, tout en réduisant parallèlement à la fois les coûts de production de l’électricité et les émissions de CO2. Plusieurs scenarios sont alors proposés, mettant en évidence à la fois la nécessité de la recherche d’une plus grande efficacité énergétique et la promotion des énergies en bas carbone, dans le cadre d’une réorientation rapide des choix politiques face aux nécessités d’un développement économique accéléré, mais aussi durable. Six scenarios ont été construits, sur la base d’un scenario de référence, insistant successivement sur l’efficacité énergétique, le nucléaire, la technologie CCS, les énergies renouvelables et un mix électrique plus équilibré. La contrainte environnementale globale (réduction des émissions de CO2) est prioritaire dans le processus de construction des scénarios. Cette approche multicritères est très nouvelle au Vietnam, pays plutôt préoccupé, aujourd’hui, par la contrainte des coûts d’approvisionnement. Les scénarios analysés dans la thèse prennent en compte la réduction de l’intensité carbone du secteur électrique du Vietnam. Il est alors proposé, comme seuil du critère de référence, le niveau d’émission de 50 à 80 g/kWh (choisi à partir des seuils étudiés par deux économies asiatiques voisines du Vietnam telles qu’Indonésie et Inde). Les différents mix de production électrique proposés semblent offrir des solutions pertinentes. Elles permettent de relever les défis économiques et environnementaux lié à l’expansion du secteur électrique du Vietnam. L’analyse prend en compte notamment la pression croissante de la demande, la sécurité de l’approvisionnement des combustibles avec des choix alternatifs, la réduction des coûts totaux d’une production électrique élevée, le contrôle de la facture extérieure, la prise en compte de l’impact social (notamment sur la santé des citoyens) et de l’occupation des sols et, enfin, le respect des normes relatives à la protection de l’environnement régional, national et mondial. / Reduction of CO2 emissions issue is clearly a world challenge today and COP21 highlighted the international requirements for countries to address related issues in the short and long term. The fundamental objective of the thesis is to contribute to the identification of possible climate policy solutions related to growing electricity production in a developing country, namely Vietnam, taking into account the need to reduce carbon energy sources. For this purpose several scenarios for electricity sector development are constructed in order to measure effects of choices related to the electricity production on CO2 emissions.The thesis presents an overview of the energy situation in Vietnam and highlights the rapid increase in electricity consumption due to population pressure and new needs. It also considers major issues of coal and gas imports, new energy sources, in light of economic constraints but also environmental challenges. The theoretical and analytical chapter reviews the analyses of electricity master plans construction, major available economic tools for energy demand forecast models. This forms the framework to understanding the complexity of the "electric bet" which Vietnam faces. After a presentation of potential quantitative simulation instruments, ELECsim was chosen for modeling the electricity sector in Vietnam. This leads to a comprehensive scenario approach; Scenarios are based on several assumptions about the evolution of economic growth and demographics, energy prices, the power generation technology development, the declared carbon value, discount rates and change rate. As a first step in energy and climate policy Vietnam can control the demand growth by strong action on energy efficiency, while reducing parallel to both the electricity production costs and CO2 emissions. Several scenarios are then proposed, highlighting both the need to search for higher energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon energies. Research envisages a rapid shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam’s neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam’s electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection.

By August 2016, 180 countries have signed the Paris Agreement and committed to holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2degC above pre-industrial levels. Abiding by the agreement will require a substantial reduction of emissions over the next few decades and near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases by the end of this century. In this context, the decarbonisation of the global power sector is of strategic importance, because low-carbon electricity has system-wide benefits that go beyond the electricity sector, enabling significant reductions of CO2 emissions in the industry, transport and buildings sectors. To make the necessary changes depends partly on improving the analysis and estimates of the economics of climate change, and for that there is an urgent need for a new generation of models that give a more accurate picture of the potential decarbonisation pathways. The technological transition towards a low carbon power sector depends on many uncertain factors, such as policy efficiency, renewable energy investment and availability of energy resources. The knowledge about how these uncertain factors interact, and the impacts on the technological evolution of the energy sector, are the key to creating successful policies for driving the economy towards a cleaner, low carbon society. In this context, the work presented here provides decarbonisation scenarios of the global power sector, under uncertain drivers of technological change, and in doing so, enables a better understanding of technology diffusion process in the power sector. The scenarios are created using the FTT:Power model, a representation of global power systems based on market competition, induced technological change and natural resource use and depletion. The scenarios analysed in this dissertation are focused on four drivers of technological change: energy policy, energy resource availability, learning and investment. The influence of uncertainty on each of these drivers is analysed in detail, through endogenous emission scenarios of the global power sector between 2016 and 2050. Emission pathways with uncertainty ranges, as well as policy recommendations, are presented as a result of the modelling exercise.

La présente thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre théorique de l’Européanisation qui peut être saisi à travers la notion d’usages instrumentaux, stratégiques, cognitifs et légitimant. L’objet de l’étude est un examen comparatif de l’adaptation des deux régions au nouveau contexte politique, légal et financier qui résulte du développement et de l’extension de l’intégration de l’UE dans le domaine de l’énergie et du changement climatique. Les ‘usages’ réfèrent à la capacité et à la volonté des acteurs de saisir des opportunités et des contraintes européennes pour formuler des politiques nationales (et dans ce cas régionales) traduisant l’impératif de la décarbonisation. Nous avons cherché à mesurer jusqu’à quel point des exécutifs régionaux étaient capables de mobiliser des ressources de l’UE dans le but de poursuivre leurs stratégies dans le domaine de la décarbonisation, ainsi que de déterminer si leur capacité d’utiliser des ressources européennes dépend de leur appartenance à un ‘ancien’ ou à un ‘nouvel’ Etat membre de l’UE. Au final, il s’agit d’évaluer jusqu’à quel point leur capacité d’innover et d’organiser la résilience territoriale à l’aide d’outils européens est liée à la division Est/Ouest. L’analyse est conduite sur deux cas d’études : deux régions européennes qui sont aujourd’hui des émettrices majeures en CO2, parce qu’elles sont encore industrialisées, densément peuplées, qu’elles abritent des sites de production en énergie, et que les bâtiments et les logements (publics et privés) sur leurs territoires sont des passoires énergétiques. La haute Silésie en Pologne et le Nord-Pas de Calais en France peuvent toujours être considérés comme des territoires industrialisés et peuvent être comparés dans une perspective « nouveau/ancien » Etat membre de l’UE. La présente recherche examine les différences dans les usages dans les deux cas d’études. Nous recherchons des variables explicatives pour ces divergences qui peuvent être trouvées dans le passé de chacune des régions. En procédant de cette manière, nous plaçons notre modèle dans une perspective de dépendance au sentier et nous regardons ce qui est pertinent dans le dispositif régional. / The object of the study is a comparative examination of two regions' adaptation to the new political, legal and financial context that results from the development and extension of the EU integration in the field of energy and climate change – or decarbonisation agenda. The ‘usages’ refer to stakeholders’ ability and willingness to take advantage of the European opportunities and constraints provided to them to shape national (and in this case regional) policies. In addition to the intentional dimensions ‘usages’ also cover the actual practices observed in each region. We search to determine to what extent the ability of the regional executives to mobilise EU resources for the purpose of pursuing their strategies in the field of decarbonisation depends on whether they are situated in an ‘old’ or a ‘new’ member state of the EU. We attempt to assess to what extent their ability to innovate and to organise a territorial resilience is related to the East/West divide.The analysis is conduced on two case studies: two European regions that are today major CO2 emitters, because they are still industrialized, densely populated, they host energy production sites, and their housing requires deep and extensive thermal renovation. Two regions in Europe appeared particularly fitting that description, and cumulate all disadvantages (as regards the importance of CO2 emissions). Upper Silesia in Poland and Nord-Pas-de-Calais in France can still be considered as industrialized territories that can be compared in a “new/old” member state of the EU perspective. The present research looks at differences in usages in the two case studies. We search for pertinent explanatory variables for those divergences to be found in each region’s past, deconstructed in institutional, interest-related and ideational components. We place our model in a path-dependence perspective and we look at how it is relevant in a regional setting.

This study explored how social aspects for stakeholder engagement are being addressed and incorporated in climate action plans (CAPs). This focus was chosen to address the knowledge gap in research on social conditions for climate action which has been found to provide barriers to achieving deep decarbonisation. The thesis conducted a case study of two cities, Copenhagen (Denmark) and Stockholm (Sweden). Each city’s CAP was analysed through a thematic document analysis that explored through what measures each city aim to achieve stakeholder engagement for local climate action.    Five overarching themes were identified through a literature review and used as an analysis framework: citizen engagement, private sector engagement, stakeholder collaboration, awareness development and advocacy. For both CAPs, the results showed an extensive variation for measures that contributed to each theme. The main findings were that measures should focus on developing collaborations, partnerships, networks, knowledge, awareness, skills, green procurement policies and stricter environmental regulations to support the level of stakeholder engagement needed for deep decarbonisation. Also, to focus on advocation measures, as well as measures aimed at developing knowledge and support to accelerate systematic change. In addition, it was found that cities need to focus on ensuring higher levels of equity and formalize extended citizen involvement for more inclusive and fair transitions. Findings also highlighted similarities and differences between the two CAPs, what lessons could be learned from these and connected these findings to how climate action could be further developed.

The Swedish mining and minerals sector is one of the most prominent greenhouse gas emitters in the country. At the same time, it also provides Sweden and other nations with vast amounts of important metals and minerals, which are not easily replaced. However, in light of the increasing urgency to reduce global greenhouse gas concentrations, it is imperative that the combustion of fossil fuels is decreased. This quantitative case study uses a document review and interviews to investigate the prerequisites and technical potential for decarbonising the Dannemora iron ore mine in eastern Sweden. Furthermore, a comparative life cycle inventory based on methods from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol is performed in order to calculate potential savings of both energy and greenhouse gases from exchanging conventional underground mining equipment with more sustainable alternatives. Results show that emissions from underground activities in the Dannemora mine could potentially be reduced by up to 90 %, and energy consumption by up to 64 %. It was however also shown that no viable emission-free explosives currently exist that could safely replace conventional alternatives. Further research needs to be conducted in order to investigate the effects of Scope 3 emissions from the production of battery electric mining vehicles, as this would have an effect on overall GHG and energy savings.

Heat pumps are a key technology for decarbonising residential buildings, yet their current market share in Canada remains very low at approximately 5%. To promote heat pump adoption, governments in Canada have introduced supportive policies such as purchase subsidies, and it is often assumed that increasing consumer awareness of such policies increases heat pump adoption. Using a survey of Canadian homeowners who do not own heat pumps (n=3,138), this study assesses: (1) levels of willingness to adopt air source and ground source heat pumps across Canada; (2) the effect of information provision on willingness to adopt heat pumps, (3) levels of heat pump policy awareness across Canada; (4) whether perceived technical characteristics of heat pumps can be categorized as functional or symbolic, and as private or societal, and (5) the role of policy awareness and other drivers in explaining willingness to adopt heat pumps. The study finds that a third of Canadian homeowners are willing to adopt heat pumps. These homeowners are found predominantly within the Atlantic region and show higher levels of adoption willingness for air source rather than ground source heat pumps. Awareness of existing heat pump supportive policy is low, with only 5% of respondents able to name any policies from memory. Awareness tends to be higher in British Columbia, and for heat pump subsidies and carbon taxes. Policy awareness without cues is a predictor of willingness to adopt air source heat pumps only. When provided with a list of policies to aid reporting, policy awareness is not associated with heat pump adoption. Other significant predictors include perceptions of heat pumps’ functionality and their environmental benefits, having a technology-oriented lifestyle, being a younger homeowner, and the financial and inconvenience costs during installation. Based on findings, insights into targeted policy designs to accelerate residential building decarbonisation are provided. / Graduate

The purpose of the thesis is to contribute to grid planning and public debate about how the electric power system can cope with electrification and decarbonisation. The thesis is based on the assumption that Sweden, in accordance with the climate goals, will achieve climate neutrality by 2045. Based on a literature review, an analysis is made of how different scenarios predict the future national electricity demand up until 2045 and identifies the underlying drivers for changes in electricity demand. A more detailed analysis based on results from a literature review and interviews with industry representatives is made for four chosen regions, Norrbotten, Västra Götaland, Stockholm and Skåne. For each region, estimates are made of how high the electrification potential is in the industrial, transport, residential and service sectors. The prerequisites for the electricity grid to handle the identified electrification potential, in terms of grid capacity, have been analysed in order to highlight what challenges there are for large-scale electrification to be a key factor in achieving the climate goals. The general belief in the studied scenarios is that the national electricity demand will increase until 2045. The investigated scenarios predict increases resulting in an annual national electricity demand of up to 207 TWh in 2045, corresponding to an increase of almost 60 %. The most significant increases are due to decarbonisation in the industry and transport sector. The regional analysis shows significant electrification potentials in the investigated regions. A few industries stand out with dramatic increases, Borealis AB in Västra Götaland shows an electrification potential of 8 TWh and 1 000 MW and SSAB in Norrbotten shows an electrification potential of 9 TWh and 900 MW. Significant electrification potentials in the transport, residential and service sectors have been identified in metropolitan areas, i.e. in the region of Stockholm, Västra Götaland and Skåne. The grid analysis shows that it will be challenging to increase grid capacity at sufficient speed. It is concluded that there is currently insufficient grid capacity to meet large-scale electrification, and that the grids need to be reinforced. However, the concession process for grid reinforcements is considered too slow to meet the demands that arise, primarily in the industry sector. Three ways to address this challenge have been identified: -          If the permission process for electricity grid expansion does not change and the industry is to choose the electrification route, this needs to be decided before 2030 in order for reinforcements in the electricity grid to be ensured before 2045. -          Speed up the permit process to allow shorter lead times for power grid expansions. -          The industry choose another route for decarbonisation than electrification. The overall conclusion is that new approaches for expanding the electricity grid will be required if large-scale electrification is to be a key factor in achieving the climate goals in 2045.