Since the early days of psychology, practitioners have recognised that metacognition - or the act of thinking about one's own thinking - is intertwined with our experience of the world. In the last decade, scientists have started to understand metacognitive signals, like judgments of confidence, as precise mathematical constructs. Confidence can be conceived of as an internal estimate of the probability of being correct. As such, confidence influences both advice seeking and advice taking while allowing people to optimally combine their views for joint action and group coordination. This work begins by exploring the idea that confidence judgments are important for monitoring not only uncertainty associated with one's performance but also, thanks to their positive covariation with accuracy, the reliability of social advisers, particularly when objective criteria are not available. I present data showing that, when adviser and advisee's judgments are independent, people are able to detect subtle variations in advice information, irrespective of feedback presence. I also show that, when such independence is broken, the use of subjective confidence to track others' reliability leads to systematic deviations. I then proceed to explore the differences existing between static and dynamic social information exchange. Traditionally, social and organisational psychology have investigated one-step unidirectional information systems, but many real-life interactions happen on a continuous time-scale, where social exchanges are recursive and dynamic. I present results indicating that the dynamics of social information exchange (recursive vs. one-step) affect individual opinions over and above the information that is communicated. Overall, my results suggest a bidirectional involvement of confidence in social inference and information exchange, and highlight the limits of the mechanisms underlying it.

Aims: This thesis had three aims: to review evidence evaluating the effectiveness of decision aids at increasing cancer patients’ treatment-related knowledge and reducing decisional conflict; to explore the decision-making processes of ovarian cancer patients who had opted for or against CA-125 testing during post-treatment surveillance; and to elicit patients’ and health professionals’ views on the proposed development of a decision aid aimed at helping women decide for or against CA-125 testing during post-treatment surveillance for ovarian cancer. Methods: A systematic review was conducted of evidence relating to the effectiveness of cancer treatment-related decision aids at increasing treatment-related knowledge and reducing decisional conflict. In the qualitative study, semi-structured interviews were conducted with ovarian cancer patients (n = 18) and health professionals (n = 6) in an outpatient gynecological oncology clinic. Framework analysis was used to identify themes in the qualitative data. Results: Overall, results from the systematic review supported previous research where decision aids were found to improve patient knowledge and reduce decisional conflict across a range of cancer treatment-related decisions. However, the lack of psychometric support for the treatment-related knowledge measures used in the majority of the studies compromised their ability to address the review question. In the qualitative study, accurate knowledge about CA-125 testing in post-treatment surveillance was found to greatly influence participants’ decision-making processes. Most women with less knowledge about the test chose to have testing based on the false belief that earlier detection of recurrence would lead to earlier treatment and prolonged survival. There was strong enthusiasm from patients and health professionals for the development of the proposed decision aid to assist women facing this treatment decision. Conclusions: The systematic review findings add to previous research supporting the use of decision aids in cancer-related treatment decisions and advocate for their continued development, evaluation and implementation into the healthcare system. The need for a decision aid to ensure accurate knowledge about CA-125 and to aid decision-making for women with ovarian cancer was supported. As well as assisting women with this decision, the proposed decision aid may ultimately support health professionals in practicing shared decision-making regarding CA-125 testing with ovarian cancer patients.

Three experiments were conducted to identify the impact of factors associated with the environment (predictability of the environment) and factors associated with an available expert (the accuracy of the expert and the cost of the expert's advice) on the optimal utilization of the expert. Across all three experiments, participants overutilized the expert (requesting advice when advice was suboptimal) when the expert accuracy was higher and when the environment was less predictable. Conversely, participants underutilized the expert (not requesting advice when doing so was optimal) more when the environment was more predictable and the expert was less accurate. Participants showed little sensitivity to the cost of advice, further compounding the errors. Requiring participants to request advice on every training trial increased reliance on the later optional expert and led to properties of the expert primarily influencing the decision to request advice. Requiring participants to rely only on the environmental cue during training decreased overall reliance on the later optional expert and led to properties of the environment primarily influencing the decision to request advice. Requiring participants to interact with both the environment and the expert during training led to better overall decisions and to the integration of environmental cues and properties of the expert to inform the decision to request advice.

Do maximizers maximize across decision domains? An assumption underlying the literature on maximizing is that the tendency to strive to make the best choice spans domains. The current research provides a direct test of this assumption by examining the association between trait maximizing and domain-specific maximizing, consisting of maximizing measures in a wide range of decisions (consumer goods, services and experiences, and life decisions). Study 1 tested this association at two different time points in order to minimize common method bias. Study 2 was a highpowered pre-registered cross-sectional replication. Results of both studies showed that trait maximizing was associated with higher maximizing tendencies across all three decision domains. However, in line with prior research suggesting that people generally maximize less in experiential than in material domains, trait maximizing was associated with maximizing in services and experiences significantly less than with maximizing in consumer goods or in life decisions. These results provide empirical support for a central tenet of maximizing theory and suggest useful directions for future research.

The landscape of the Internet is continually evolving. This creates huge opportunities for different industries to optimize vital channels online, resulting in various-forms of new Internet services. As a result, digital users are interacting with many digital systems and they are exhibiting dynamic behaviors. Their shopping behaviors are drastically different today than it used to be, with offline and online shopping interacting with each other. They have many channels to access online media but their consumption patterns on different channels are quite different. They do philanthropy online to help others but their heterogeneous motivations and different fundraising campaigns leads to distinct path-to-contribution. Understanding the digital user’s decision making process behind their dynamic behaviors is critical as they interact with various digital systems for the firms to improve user experience and improve their bottom line. In this thesis, I study digital users’ decision journeys and the corresponding digital technology firms’ strategies using inter-disciplinary approaches that combine econometrics, economic structural modeling and machine learning. The uncovered decision journey not only offer empirical managerial insights but also provide guideline for introducing intervention to better serve digital users.

Cette thèse traite du problème de la façon de prendre des décisions impliquant à la fois la temporisation et l'information ambiguë. Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres. Le chapitre 1 passe en revue une série d'études sur l'influence de l'ambiguïté et de la temporisation sur la prise de décision individuelle, et soulève deux questions de recherche de la thèse actuelle: 1) Est-ce que les préférences d'ambiguïté des décideurs sont différentes pour les perspectives résolues dans le présent et l'avenir? et 2) Est-ce que les préférences temporelles de décideurs diffèrent sous les récompenses ambiguës et non ambiguës? Les chapitres 2 et 3 sont deux essais indépendants qui traitent de ces deux questions, respectivement. Le premier essai examine les préférences d'ambiguïté sous la résolution actuelle et retardée à travers les probabilités basses et hautes. Les résultats des trois études montrent un effet d'interaction entre le temps de résolution et le niveau de probabilité. Sous résolution immédiate, nous constatons que les individus présentent l'aversion d'ambiguïté à des probabilités élevées et ambiguïté-recherche faible, ou l'indifférence à faibles probabilités, cohérentes avec la littérature antérieure. Toutefois, la résolution future régresse aversion et de comportement de recherché à la neutralité. S’appuyant sur la théorie du niveau de construal et la théorie de double-processus, nous attribuons cet effet d'interaction à la différence de styles de traitement pour les perspectives présentes et futures. Le deuxième essai démontre l'impact de récompenses futures ambigus sur les préférences intertemporelles. Six études montrent que, malgré le fait que les récompenses ambiguës et retardées sont généralement detestés séparément, ensemble, elles produisent un effet positif. C'est-à-dire que, les récompenses ambiguës futures sont plus susceptibles d'être préférés que les récompenses précises (avec les valeurs attendues égales) dans la prise de decision intertemporelle. Nous proposons l'hypothèse de l’eclipse (overshadowing) pour expliquer cet effet et excluons trois autres possibilités. Enfin, nous établissons des conditions aux limites en examinant systématiquement si l'effet persiste à différents niveaux d'ambiguïté et de points de temps. / This dissertation addresses the issue of how to make decisions involving both time delay and ambiguous information. This dissertation is arranged into three chapters. Chapter 1 reviews a set of studies on the influence of ambiguity and time delay on individual decision making and raises two relevant research questions: (1) Are decision makers' ambiguity preferences different for prospects resolved in the present and the future?; and (2) Do decision makers' time preferences differ under ambiguous and unambiguous payoffs? Chapter 2 and 3 are two independent essays, each addressing one of the above questions. The first essay examines ambiguity preferences under present and delayed resolutions across low and high probabilities. Results of three studies show an interaction effect between resolution time and probability level. Under the immediate resolution, we find that individuals exhibit ambiguity aversion at high probabilities and weak ambiguity seeking or indifference at low probabilities, consistent with prior literature. However, delayed resolution regresses aversion and seeking behaviors to neutrality. Drawing on the construal level theory and the dual-process theory, we attribute this interaction effect to the difference in processing styles for present and future prospects. The second essay demonstrates the impact of ambiguous future payoffs on intertemporal preferences. Six studies show that, despite the fact that ambiguous and delayed payoffs are generally disliked separately, together they produce a positive effect. That is, ambiguous future payoffs are more likely to be preferred than precise payoffs (with equal expected values) in intertemporal decision-making. We propose the overshadowing hypothesis to explain this effect and rule out three other possibilities. Finally, we establish boundary conditions by systematically examining whether the effect persists at various ambiguity levels and time points.

One purpose of the dissertation was to determine what theoretical justification exists to support the description of problem recognition. Homeostatsis was found to be a well documented and accepted theory of tension reduction in both physiology and psychology. It was proposed as a proper theoretical foundation for problem recognition. It also implied that people develop styles as they repeatedly deal with similar problems. Another purpose of the dissertation was to develop a method for typifying consumers in the way they recognize problems. Scales were constructed to measure consumers' tendencies to recognize problems due to a change in one of their states. Three scales were developed: one to measure types sensitive to changes in the desired state, one to measure types sensitive to changes in the actual state, and a combined scale to measure tendencies to recognize problems due to changes in either state. The product category chosen to test the scales was clothing. The results indicated that all scales were extremely reliable and moderately valid.

The objective of this research is to explore the extent to which current models of decision-making and entrepreneurial cognition are relevant to a sample of true novice entrepreneurs, those who are in the process of founding their first business venture. Novice entrepreneurs are recognised as being essential to sustaining the entrepreneurial churn in economies (Disney, Haskel & Heden, 2003) especially as the young firm population requires new entrants. The need arises because of the high rates of churning observed in populations of young firms that require a constant inflow of new ventures to renew the stock of businesses (Ganguly, 1985). Whilst some studies of the behaviour of entrepreneurs do focus on relatively young firms (e.g. Chandler, DeTienne, McKelvie, & Mumford, 2011) studies of true novice entrepreneurs are rare. The thesis seeks to address this gap in the literature. A sample of true novice entrepreneurs, that founded businesses in 2013 and 2014, is interviewed to explore their decision-making and cognition regarding a realistic new business case study. The approach replicates that used by other authors who have studied expert entrepreneurs (Sarasvathy, 2001; Sarasvathy, 2008; Chandler et al., 2011; Dew, Read, Sarasvathy & Wiltbank, 2009) using a think-aloud protocol to identify causation and effectuation styles. However, by using a mixed methods approach of concurrent and retrospective think-aloud aspects it was possible to identify novice decision-making and to capture the prior experiences that they referred to (Banks, Stanton & Harvey, 2014). The sample of 32 true novices was a randomised sub-set of 1128 business founders in the UK. The experimental protocol enabled a comparison with alternative expertise theories of feedback and linear thinking in decision-making (Winch & Maytorena, 2009). The key findings were contrary to the hypotheses; the true novices were both more effectual and more casual than expected; and furthermore were frequently using feedback loops in their decision-making. In addition, as the novice entrepreneurs reflected upon their experiences that informed their decisions, the literature predicts that novice entrepreneurs would have to adopt analytical approaches to decision making as they lack salient experiences to inform their decisions in the early years of trading. However, contrary to expectations, the novices used both analogical and heuristic sense-making approaches and were adept at switching between them (Jones & Casulli, 2014). The outcome of the experimental protocol offers insights into the extent to which the current literature captures the decision-making processes and entrepreneurial cognition of true novice entrepreneurs. The evidence is mixed, offering the opportunity for further refinement of existing theoretical constructs, and reinforcing the relevance of alternative theories of cognition and decision making for novice entrepreneurs, for government policies and the support networks and that provide resources to assist the creation and survival of new entrepreneurial ventures. In addition, for novice entrepreneurs, this research examined the relevance and influence of their prior experiences and emotions on their entrepreneurial decision-making. In founding their first business, the prediction for novices is that they would struggle to draw on appropriate experiences (Mathias, Williams & Smith, 2015). However, the results showed novices referencing a wide variety of experiences, with the majority of these based on personal events that they had directly experienced either in their current start-up or previous work activity. Emotions are believed to influence entrepreneurs’ abilities to cope with uncertainty in business decision making and to persist in their endeavours in the face of adverse experiences and entrepreneurs are predicted to be over optimistic (Koellinger, Minniti & Schade, 2007; Ucbasaran, Westhead, Wright & Flores, 2010). The research profiled the novices’ emotions using the internationally externally validated PANAS (Positive and Negative Affect) scale (Watson, Clark & Tellegan, 1988) and the findings showed the novices engaged consistently with their underlying trait emotions however, interestingly, they were not statistically more optimistic than the UK population (Thompson, 2007). The findings make a contribution to both the theoretical explanations and practical aspects of novice entrepreneurship and show the appropriateness of relating current research to widely used measures from other fields of study, particularly as the impact of emotions is currently influencing the future of entrepreneurship research (Cardon, Foo, Shepherd & Wiklund, 2012; Shepherd, 2015).

Please read the abstract in the section 00front of this document / Dissertation (MCom (Computer Auditing))--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Accounting / MCom / unrestricted

This research explores the online purchase decision-making behaviour of consumers by introducing a comprehensive approach that covers two different viewpoints: a) individual-level behaviour and b) market-level behaviour. Individual-level behaviour enhances our understanding of how purchase decision-making processes unfold and whether they differ for different individuals. Drawing from decision analysis and consumer behaviour literature, four segments of online consumers are introduced based on two individual factors: decision making style and knowledge of the product. Archetypal behaviour of each segment is identified addressing variations in the process and process outcome for different groups. In addition, market-level behaviour investigates the actual behaviour of consumers in relation with different retailers in the market; it is based on the aggregated behaviour of 60,000 individuals. Not only behaviour in a particular website but also cross-visiting behaviour of consumers comparing multiple retailers is examined. For this purpose, a multi-level mixed-method approach is designed. Video recording sessions, think-aloud method, interviews and questionnaires are used to capture the dynamic decision-making process, segment consumers and measure the outcome of the process at individual level. Business process modeling approach and an adaptation of path configuration method are selected for modelling the process. Data from an Internet panel data provider, comScore, is analyzed to explore the market-behaviour of consumers visiting multiple retailers. A set of measurement frameworks, that have been developed to fully exploit the research potential of Internet panel data, are designed for this research. Two sectors of banking and mobile network providers are selected; this research methodology enables a much more detailed evaluation of online behaviour and can be applied in other consumer markets.A conceptual model of online purchase decision making is proposed synthesizing theory from three disciplines: consumer behaviour, decision analysis and Information Systems. This model is able to explain the complexities and dynamic nature of real-life decision-making processes. The results of individual-level analysis show that the synthesized model has an enhanced descriptive power. Purchase decision-making processes in the two sectors appear to be highly complex with a large number of iterations, being more unstructured in banking sector. The process is found to be influenced by the both individual characteristics and each segment exhibits a certain typology of behaviour. Behaviour in terms of the way stages are performed is identical across the two sectors; whereas it differs in relation to intensity of decision-making cycles, duration of the process and the process outcome, being a function of product/ market characteristics.The findings of market-level analysis revealed that banking websites are preliminary visited for using online banking services; despite the high portion of visitors, the intensity of research in these websites is low. On the contrary, mobile network providers attract a higher portion of consumers with purchase intentions and enjoy more intensive research. Consumers have a small consideration set in both sectors; and consider certain banks/providers rather than using the accessibility of all alterative on the Internet. It is evident that comparison sites play an important role in both markets affecting the behaviour of online consumers. Finally, the research stresses the use of the Internet as a complementary channel offering specific benefits in each sector.