Thesis (M.S. in Information Systems)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 1992. / Thesis Advisor: Nakagawa, Gordon. "March 1992." Description based on title screen as viewed on March 4, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 66).

Στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία παρουσιάζονται τα ιατρικά συστήματα λήψης απόφασης (MDSS) και αρχιτεκτονικές ανάπτυξή τους. Πραγματεύεται τις έννοιες του ευφυούς ελέγχου και της ασάφειας για να καταλήξει στον όρο Ασαφή Γνωστικά Δίκτυα(FCΜ). Αφού περιγράφεται αναλυτικά η ανάπτυξή, ο καθορισμός των παραμέτρων και οι μεθοδολογίες εκμάθησης ενός Ασαφούς Γνωστικού Δικτύου, καταλήγει τελικά στην εφαρμογή τους στον χώρο της ιατρικής. Τέλος, ακολουθεί το μοντέλο ενός Ασαφούς Ελεγκτή για ιατρικές εφαρμογές και η ανάπτυξη ενός MDSS για την εύρεση Κάκωσης Γόνατος με αρχιτεκτονικές Ανταγωνιστικού Ασαφούς Γνωστικού Δικτύου (CFCΜ). / The thesis represents the medical decision support systems (MDSS) and their architecture. Starting with the concepts of intelligent control and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), it describes in detail the development, the setting parameters, and the learning methods of FCMs, with the purpose of their application into the field of medicine. Finally, it illustrates the model of a Fuzzy Controller for medical applications and the development of an MDSS for finding knee injury with the architecture of Competitive FCMs (CFCM).

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The volume of information available to the individual today is greater than ever before. From sources that range from verbal to non-verbal, paper to electronic and audio to visual, there is a constant and ubiquitous supply of information. For managers in an organisational context, whose job it is to manage information from various sources and make decisions based on that, this proliferation of information can be overwhelming. As a result, decision-makers can experience information overload, which can have various detrimental effects on them. Both the problems that information overload can cause, as well as some suggested solutions to the effect are explored. A brief investigation follows into the way in which information in different forms is cognitively processed by individuals is explored. Two possible ways in which decision-makers can respond to the problem of information overload are examined. The first focuses on the visualisation of information and visual management in organisations, looking at two examples, the balanced scorecard and the oobeya room. The visualisation of information often integrates information from various sources, reducing its volume to facilitate cognitive processing. The second response to information overload looks at the use of fast and frugal heuristics. These heuristics ignore some of the available information to ease cognitive processing, resulting in faster decisions that use as little information as possible. Both of these two approaches are explored as potential decision support systems for decision-makers in an organisational context, separately and in combination. One approach is structured and planned, while the other is largely unplanned and intuitive. The similarities are investigated in the way that these two approaches structure information. Both methods aim to reduce the amount of cognitive processing for the decision-maker, minimising the chances of information overload occurring and can be used under certain appropriate conditions to minimise the negative effects of information overload on decision-makers in organisations to result in more effective decision-making processes. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die volume inligting wat beskikbaar is tot die individu vandag is groter as ooit tevore. Vanaf bronne wat wissel van verbale tot nie-verbale, papier na elektroniese- en klank tot visuele bronne, is daar 'n konstante en alomteenwoordige verskaffing van inligting. Vir bestuurders in 'n organisasiekonteks, wie se werk dit is om inligting uit verskillende bronne te bestuur en besluite op die hierdie verspreiding van inligting te basseer, kan dit oorweldigend wees. As gevolg hiervan kan besluitnemers ’n inligting-oorlading ervaar, wat verskeie nadelige effekte op hulle kan hê. Beide die probleme wat inligting-oorlading kan veroorsaak, asook 'n paar voorgestelde oplossings met betrekking tot die effek, word ondersoek. 'n Kort ondersoek kyk na die manier waarop die inligting in verskillende vorme kognitief deur die individue verwerk word. Twee moontlike maniere waarop besluitnemers kan reageer op die probleem van inligting-oorlading, word ondersoek. Die eerste fokus op die visualisering van inligting en visuele bestuur in organisasies, deur te kyk na twee voorbeelde: die gebalanseerde telkaart en die oobeya kamer. Die visualisering van inligting behels dikwels die integrasie van inligting uit verskeie bronne en so word die volume saamgevat om kognitiewe prosessering te fasiliteer. Die tweede reaksie op inligting-oorlading kyk na die gebruik van "snelle en spaarsame" heuristiese metodes. Hierdie heuristiese metodes ignoreer sommige van die beskikbare inligting wat kognitiewe prosessering verlig, wat individue in staat stel om vinniger besluite te neem en so min as moontlik inligting gebruik. Beide van hierdie twee benaderings word ondersoek as moontlike ondersteuningstelsels vir besluitnemings deur besluitnemers in 'n organisasiekonteks, beide afsonderlik en as ’n kombinasie. Die een benadering is gestruktureerd en beplan, terwyl die ander grootliks onbeplan en intuïtief is. Die ooreenkomste in die manier waarop hierdie twee benaderings inligting struktureer, word ondersoek. Beide metodes poog om die kognitiewe verwerkingslading vir die besluitnemer te verminder en so die kanse vir inligting-oorlading te verlaag. So kan dit gebruik word om onder gepaste toestande die negatiewe effekte van inligting-oorlading te verminder, sodat besluitnemers in organisasies meer effektiewe besluitnemingsprosesse kan implimenteer.

abstract: Every year, more than 11 million maritime containers and 11 million commercial trucks arrive to the United States, carrying all types of imported goods. As it would be costly to inspect every container, only a fraction of them are inspected before being allowed to proceed into the United States. This dissertation proposes a decision support system that aims to allocate the scarce inspection resources at a land POE (L-POE), to minimize the different costs associated with the inspection process, including those associated with delaying the entry of legitimate imports. Given the ubiquity of sensors in all aspects of the supply chain, it is necessary to have automated decision systems that incorporate the information provided by these sensors and other possible channels into the inspection planning process. The inspection planning system proposed in this dissertation decomposes the inspection effort allocation process into two phases: Primary and detailed inspection planning. The former helps decide what to inspect, and the latter how to conduct the inspections. A multi-objective optimization (MOO) model is developed for primary inspection planning. This model tries to balance the costs of conducting inspections, direct and expected, and the waiting time of the trucks. The resulting model is exploited in two different ways: One is to construct a complete or a partial efficient frontier for the MOO model with diversity of Pareto-optimal solutions maximized; the other is to evaluate a given inspection plan and provide possible suggestions for improvement. The methodologies are described in detail and case studies provided. The case studies show that this MOO based primary planning model can effectively pick out the non-conforming trucks to inspect, while balancing the costs and waiting time. / Dissertation/Thesis / code developed in this dissertation / Ph.D. Industrial Engineering 2012

Group Support Systems (GSS) are systems, normally involving the use of Information Technology, that have been designed to support groups of people meeting to undertake some task. By providing an additional channel of communication, GSS attempt to reduce group process losses, such as domination of the group by one or more members, and to enhance positive aspects of the group process, for example a group member thinking of a new and useful idea as a result of awareness of the contribution of other group members. A number of different types of GSS have been developed involving different levels of IT support. However, the majority of research has been targeted at GSS involving networked personal computers, where each member of the group uses an individual personal computer to enter opinions and values. Another type of GSS involves a single personal computer, a large screen that can be viewed by all members of a group, and a number of personal handsets that can be used to send numeric information to the personal computer. Relative to networked personal computer based GSS, there has been far less research on the effectiveness of handset based GSS in supporting a group of people meeting on some task. Additionally, there is conflicting evidence between studies of GSS that have been undertaken in the laboratory, and studies that have been undertaken in the field. Laboratory studies have found little evidence to suggest that the group process is improved through the use of a GSS, whilst field studies have identified benefits. The evaluation of the validity of a GSS is a complex issue, and can be considered from a number of perspectives and approaches. This portfolio of projects concerns the development and evaluation of a type of k-GSS in organisational settings. The portfolio includes an account of the background to the development of the GSS and an initial evaluation of the usefulness of the system through a number of field studies. Two field applications of the GSS are the subject of an in-depth evaluation, and include evaluation of both process variables and output variables. The evaluation of the GSS in these applications suggests that an important factor in improving the group process through using a GSS is the extent to which dialogue is encouraged in the group. Additionally, a GSS Design Framework and GSS Design Guidelines are identified which should be reviewed when an application using this type of technology in an organisational context is being considered.

A utilização de biomassa vegetal para produção de etanol como forma de substituição dos combustíveis fósseis, é uma alternativa explorada por diversos países. O Brasil, segundo produtor mundial de etanol, utiliza como principal matéria-prima a cana-de-açúcar. Entretanto, com a possibilidade da extração de etanol de outras matérias-primas já realizados em outros países, como EUA, China, União Européia, surge, no estado do Mato Grosso, Brasil, o interesse em processar mandioca, milho e sorgo sacarino para produção do etanol. Utilizando-se do aporte teórico da Teoria da Localização, este trabalho tem por objetivo, avaliar a viabilidade da produção de etanol a partir de uma planta multi-produto na região Oeste do estado do Mato Grosso. Com a utilização de modelagem matemática, avaliou-se o local ideal para construção de uma planta industrial, bem como os custos de produção para as matérias-primas provindas de cada município. Os resultados apontam para viabilidade econômica do processamento da mandioca e do sorgo sacarino para produção de etanol em alguns municípios da região. O processamento dessas duas culturas para produção de etanol pode vir a modificar o sistema produtivo atual, aumentando as áreas destinadas ao cultivo de mandioca e sorgo sacarino, diminuindo a dependência dos programas de subsídios para o escoamento da produção do milho. A cultura do sorgo sacarino se inviabiliza conforme o aumento da necessidade de transporte. A cultura do milho, mesmo com a venda do subproduto protéico, mostrou-se inviável do ponto de vista econômico para produção de etanol. / The use of biomass for ethanol production as a way to replace fossil fuels, an alternative explored by several countries. In Brazil, the second largest producer in the world, the main raw material used for ethanol production is sugarcane. However, with the possibility of extracting ethanol from other feedstocks as already made in other countries such as USA, China, Hong Kong, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, there is a growing interest in processing cassava, maize and sweet sorghum for production of ethanol. Using the Theory of Location, this article is aimed at the evaluation of the feasibility of producing ethanol in a multi-product plant in the Western state of Mato Grosso. Using mathematical modeling, we evaluated the ideal location for building an industrial plant and calculated the production costs for raw materials coming from each neighbor municipality. The results point to the economic viability of the processing of cassava and sweet sorghum for ethanol production in some city areas. The processing of these two crops to produce ethanol is likely to modify the current production system, increasing the areas for the cultivation of cassava and sweet sorghum, and reducing the dependence on subsidy programs for marketing of corn production. The cultivation of sweet sorghum is unfeasible with increasing need for transportation. The corn crop, even with the sale of DDGS, proved to be unfeasible economically for ethanol production.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-22T20:49:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-02-22 / Introdução: o diagnóstico da doença celíaca é um processo complexo devido à multiplicidade dos sintomas, sinais, grupos de risco, formas de apresentação e intersecção dos sintomas com outras doenças. Para a confirmação da suspeita diagnóstica, é imprescindível a realização da biopsia do intestino delgado, o padrão-ouro. Objetivo: desenvolver um sistema de apoio à decisão, em ambiente web, integrado a um classificador automático para reconhecimento dos casos de doença celíaca. Métodos: um sistema web foi construído para suportar um protocolo eletrônico esquematizado para atendimento e registro dos dados clínicos dos pacientes. Uma avaliação preliminar de usabilidade foi realizada. Uma base de dados de retrospectiva com 178 casos clínicos para treinamento foi construída. Foram testados 270 classificadores automáticos disponíveis no software Weka 3.6.1, utilizando cinco técnicas de inteligência artificial, a saber, árvores de decisão, classificador bayesiano, k-vizinhos próximos, máquinas de vetor de suporte e redes neurais artificiais. As métricas analisadas foram área sob a curva ROC, sensibilidade, especificidade e taxa de acerto, utilizadas nessa sequência como critério para seleção do algoritmo a ser implantado no sistema web. O algoritmo com maior AUC foi selecionado e acoplado ao sistema web, gerando o software intitulado SADCEL. Uma base de dados de teste foi construída, com 38 casos clínicos, para a avaliação do SADCEL em relação à utilidade diagnóstica. A hipótese diagnóstica apontada pelo SADCEL foi comparada às indicadas pelos especialistas durante a realização da consulta por meio de estatística kappa. Resultados: o sistema web foi avaliado pelos usuários com nível excelente de usabilidade, com SUS-score de 83,5 ± 10,0. Na fase de treinamento, as melhores métricas foram apresentadas pelo algoritmo AODE F-1, do tipo classificador bayesiano, com taxa de acerto 80,0%, sensibilidade 0,78, especificidade 0,80 e AUC 0,84. Comparado ao padrão ouro, o SADCEL alcançou uma precisão de 84,2% com um nível de concordância diagnóstica de k = 0,68 (p <0,0001), o que indicou um bom nível de concordância. A mesma taxa de acerto foi obtida na comparação entre as indicações do diagnóstico dos especialistas e o padrão-ouro, com k = 0,64 (p-value <0,0001). Entre a indicação do especialista e do SADC, obteve-se k = 0,46 (p-value = 0,0008), o que indica concordância moderada. Conclusão: o nível de precisão alcançado pelo algoritmo de classificação automática integrado ao sistema web evidencia a utilidade potencial da SADCEL no auxílio ao diagnóstico de doença celíaca / Introduction: the diagnosing of celiac disease involves some complexity due to its multiple symptoms, signs, risk groups, presentation and the wide possibility of differential diagnosis. In order to confirm the diagnosis of celiac disease, it is required to perform the biopsy or the small intestine, the gold standard. Objective: to develop a decision making support system, in web environment, including an automated classifier to recognize cases of celiac disease, to be previously selected among experimental models drawing upon techniques of artificial intelligence. Methods: a web system was implemented to support an electronic protocol designed to help with celiac disease investigation and collect clinical data. A preliminary assessment of this system usability was performed through the analysis of a questionnaire based on the System Usability Scale (SUS) completed by 10 direct users of the web system implemented. A retrospective database with 178 cases was build for training the automated classifier. A total of 270 automated classifiers available in the software Weka 3.6.1 were tested using 5 artificial intelligence techniques – decision tree, K-nearest-neighbor, Bayesian classifier, support vector machine and artificial neural networks. The parameters area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and correctness rate were used, in the order above, as criteria to select the classification algorithm to be implemented in the web system. The algorithm with the largest AUC was included in the web system whose software was named SADCEL. A database with 38 clinical cases was built to assess the diagnostic power this software. The diagnostic hypothesis obtained from SADCEL was compared with those reached by the specialists participating in the study using Kappa Statistic. Results: the preliminary usability score attained by the web system was 83.5 ± 10.0 (excellent). The Bayesian classifying algorithm AODE F1 had the best performance scoring 80.0% for correctness, 0.78 for sensitivity, 0.84 for specificity and 0.84 for AUC. Compared with the study gold standard, SADCEL achieved an accuracy of 84.2% with a level of agreement with the diagnostic gold standard rated as k = 0.68 (p-value < 0.0001), indicative of good level of agreement. The level of agreement between the specialist diagnostic hypothesis and the diagnostic gold standard was rated as k = 0.64 (p-value < 0.0001). The agreement between the specialist and SADCEL diagnostic hypotheses was rated as k = 0.46 (p-value) indicative of moderate level of agreement. Conclusion: the level of accuracy attained by the classifying algorithm incorporated in this study´s web system evidences the potential usefulness of SADCEL in helping with diagnosing celiac disease in clinical set. This study is, thus, expected to be a contribution towards the establishing of a computational means of diagnosing the celiac disease. / TEDE

Orientador: José Paulo Alves Fusco / Co-orientador: José de Souza Rodrigues / Banca: José Remo Ferreira Brega / Banca: Renato de Campos / Resumo: A integração dos sistemas corporativos é importante e necessária para a realização técnica dos processos de negócios. As dificuldades (técnicas e de custo) para tornar os sistemas de gestão integrados (os ERPs) aderentes aos processos e à dinâmica organizacional levam as organizações a conviverem com sistemas de diversos fabricantes com baixa ou nenhuma integração entre eles. Essa dificuldade pode se tornar ainda maior no caso de organizações públicas. Uma alternativa para este desfaio pode ser oferecida plo conceito de Gestão de Processos de Negócio (BPM), que objetiva fornecer base conceitual para alinhar os processos de negócio com os objetivos organizacionais. Este trabalho surge da necessidade de conhecer "as implicações o conceito subjacente aos Sistemas de Implementação e Gestão de Processos com base no BPM, como o AtosBPM, têm para a integração de processos nas organizações". Para tanto foi feito um estudo exploratório usando um processo específico em uma instituição pública de ensino superior do Estado de São Paulo. A escolha da instituição foi motivada pela facilidade de acesso a seus dados e processos e a por mesma não dispor de um sistema de gestão integrado. Utilizou-se a filosofia de melhoria contínua de processos de negócio e uma ferramenta computacional para desenhar o processo analisado com base no conceito BPM. Foi gerado uma proposta de otimização do processo analisado, com a qual pode-se concluir que a modelagem e otimização de processos com base no BPM podem servir para integrar os processos organizacionais de uma forma diferente da convencional. Estas possibilidades podem tanto levar os gestores a fazer pequenas adaptações em seus sistemas "criando pontes" de ligação entre sistemas não integrados ao invés de fazerem modificações mais abrangentes, como contornar limitações de recursos orçamentários, por exemplo, para melhorar a integração de seus processos... / Abstract: The integration of enterprise systems is important and necessary for the technical realizatino of business processes. Difficulties (technical and cost) to make integrated management systems (ERPs) adhering to processes and organizational dynamics lead organizations to live with systems from various manufacturers with little or no integration between them. This difficulty can become even worse in the case of public organizations. One option for the challenge can be provided by the concept of Business Process Management (BPM), which aims to provide conceptual basis for aligning business processes with organizational goals. This work from the need to know "the implications that the concept behind the Implementation and Process management Systems based on BPM, as AtosBPM, have for the integration processes in organizations." To this end it was made an exploratory study using a specific process in a public institution of higher education in the state of São Paulo. The choice of the institution wa motivated by the ease access to your data and it does not have an integrated management system. It was used the philosophy of continuous improvement of business processes and a computational tool to design the process analyzed based on the BPM concept. It has generated an optimization proposal of the reporting process, with which it can be concluded that process modeling and optimization based on the BPM can be used to integrate business processes in a different way from conventional. These possibilities can either lead managers to make small adjustmentes in their systems "building bridges" linking nonintegrated systems rather than making broader change, like to get around limitations of budgetary resources, for example, to improve the integration of its processes. Therefore, the efficiency and effectiveness of these improvements depend on the approaches used to justify them / Mestre

Os sistemas de triagem têm sido utilizados nos serviços de emergência (SE) para determinar a prioridade clínica dos pacientes de acordo com o risco potencial, o nível de gravidade ou o sofrimento do paciente. Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar o sistema de triagem desenvolvido no Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA). Este foi um estudo retrospectivo com base de dados originada dos prontuários dos pacientes. A confiabilidade do sistema foi analisada através do acordo interobservadores e a validade usando o nível de triagem como uma variável independente para os seguintes desfechos clínicos: hospitalização, hospitalização de pacientes triados como não urgentes, os óbitos ocorridos dentro de 60 dias, tempo de permanência no SE e retorno não programado ao SE no prazo de 7 dias. O sistema de triagem do HCPA apresentou validade com confiabilidade variando de moderada a forte e correlação significativa entre o nível da triagem e os desfechos clínicos analisados. / The triage systems have been used in emergency departments (SE) to determine the clinical priority of patients according the potential risk, the level of severity or the patient's suffering. This study aimed to evaluate the triage system developed at Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA). This was a retrospective study with database originated of the clinical records of patients. The reliability of the system was analyzed through the interrater agreement and the validity of system using the level of triage as an independent variable for the following clinical outcomes: hospitalization, hospitalization of patients triaged as non-urgent, deaths within 60 days, length of stay in the SE and the unscheduled return to the SE within 7 days. The sorting system of HCPA presented validity with reliability ranging from to moderate to strong and significant correlation between the level of triage and to clinical outcomes analyzed.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-13T13:26:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2015-07-02. Added 1 bitstream(s) on 2016-01-13T13:32:19Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 000854374.pdf: 2545918 bytes, checksum: 5df37d79f6f8c0e09592a176842d3ffe (MD5) / A integração dos sistemas corporativos é importante e necessária para a realização técnica dos processos de negócios. As dificuldades (técnicas e de custo) para tornar os sistemas de gestão integrados (os ERPs) aderentes aos processos e à dinâmica organizacional levam as organizações a conviverem com sistemas de diversos fabricantes com baixa ou nenhuma integração entre eles. Essa dificuldade pode se tornar ainda maior no caso de organizações públicas. Uma alternativa para este desfaio pode ser oferecida plo conceito de Gestão de Processos de Negócio (BPM), que objetiva fornecer base conceitual para alinhar os processos de negócio com os objetivos organizacionais. Este trabalho surge da necessidade de conhecer as implicações o conceito subjacente aos Sistemas de Implementação e Gestão de Processos com base no BPM, como o AtosBPM, têm para a integração de processos nas organizações. Para tanto foi feito um estudo exploratório usando um processo específico em uma instituição pública de ensino superior do Estado de São Paulo. A escolha da instituição foi motivada pela facilidade de acesso a seus dados e processos e a por mesma não dispor de um sistema de gestão integrado. Utilizou-se a filosofia de melhoria contínua de processos de negócio e uma ferramenta computacional para desenhar o processo analisado com base no conceito BPM. Foi gerado uma proposta de otimização do processo analisado, com a qual pode-se concluir que a modelagem e otimização de processos com base no BPM podem servir para integrar os processos organizacionais de uma forma diferente da convencional. Estas possibilidades podem tanto levar os gestores a fazer pequenas adaptações em seus sistemas criando pontes de ligação entre sistemas não integrados ao invés de fazerem modificações mais abrangentes, como contornar limitações de recursos orçamentários, por exemplo, para melhorar a integração de seus processos... / The integration of enterprise systems is important and necessary for the technical realizatino of business processes. Difficulties (technical and cost) to make integrated management systems (ERPs) adhering to processes and organizational dynamics lead organizations to live with systems from various manufacturers with little or no integration between them. This difficulty can become even worse in the case of public organizations. One option for the challenge can be provided by the concept of Business Process Management (BPM), which aims to provide conceptual basis for aligning business processes with organizational goals. This work from the need to know the implications that the concept behind the Implementation and Process management Systems based on BPM, as AtosBPM, have for the integration processes in organizations. To this end it was made an exploratory study using a specific process in a public institution of higher education in the state of São Paulo. The choice of the institution wa motivated by the ease access to your data and it does not have an integrated management system. It was used the philosophy of continuous improvement of business processes and a computational tool to design the process analyzed based on the BPM concept. It has generated an optimization proposal of the reporting process, with which it can be concluded that process modeling and optimization based on the BPM can be used to integrate business processes in a different way from conventional. These possibilities can either lead managers to make small adjustmentes in their systems building bridges linking nonintegrated systems rather than making broader change, like to get around limitations of budgetary resources, for example, to improve the integration of its processes. Therefore, the efficiency and effectiveness of these improvements depend on the approaches used to justify them