Why and under what conditions do governments borrow before elections? This thesis aims to shed light on this question by exploring governments' incentives that give rise to political budget cycles, i.e. fluctuations in the budget balance during election times, under different political, institutional, and economic contexts. The argument will be developed in three stages. First, the thesis will explain why politicians may choose to use debt strategically to win elections and discuss and evaluate different models that can explain political budget cycles. One model, a moral hazard type competence model is, as will be shown, particularly suited for this study. It will be extended in stages two and three. The second stage will look at the benefits and costs from public debt, with a particular emphasis on the likelihood of re-election (government popularity), party system polarisation, and sovereign risk. Sovereign risk increases the cost of borrowing and thus dampens the magnitude of political budget cycles; the effect of government popularity on strategic debt is conditional on the degree of polarisation. The third stage will take the motives to borrow as given and examine the effectiveness of debt as a strategic instrument. The less voters attribute responsibility for fiscal policy to governments, the less effective debt is as a strategic instrument. Economic volatility, regulatory density, and economic openness, this thesis argues, reduce this effectiveness and in turn the political budget cycle. Similarly, coalition government reduces responsibility associated with individual coalition partners, and thus the strategic value of public debt - yet this effect is moderated by the distribution of cabinet portfolios. The argument in this thesis is based both on formal models and on empirical, time series-cross sectional, analyses. It is arguably the most comprehensive treatment of political budget cycles and adds to an increasing literature on the contextual determinants of fiscal policy.

Contexte : Les répercussions de l’alcool au niveau des fonctions cognitives sont bien documentées. Certaines hypothèses suggèrent que l’alcool affecte des fonctions cognitives spécifiques alors que d’autres avancent l’hypothèse de déficits diffus. Cependant, une ambigüité persiste concernant quelles fonctions cognitives sont le plus touchées par l’alcool, et à quel point la durée d’abstinence affecte la récupération cognitive. Nous avons procédé à une des premières méta-analyses qui s’intéresse aux différentes fonctions cognitives touchées par la consommation problématique d’alcool et à la durée d’abstinence requise pour une récupération au niveau des cognitions. Méthodes : Une recherche de la littérature a permis d’identifier 62 études évaluant les cognitions chez les personnes présentant des troubles liés à l’utilisation d’alcool. Les estimations de la taille d’effet ont été calculées avec la Comprehensive Meta Analysis –V2 pour les 12 domaines cognitifs suivants : quotient intellectuel, fluidité verbale/langage, vitesse de traitement de l’information, mémoire de travail, attention, résolution de problème/fonctions exécutives, inhibition/impulsivité, apprentissage verbal, mémoire verbale, apprentissage visuel, mémoire visuelle, habiletés visuo-spatiales. Parmi ces 12 domaines cognitifs, 3 estimations de la taille d’effet ont été calculées selon les durées d’abstinences suivantes : court- (<1 mois), moyen- (2 à 12 mois) et long- (>1 an) termes. Résultats : Les résultats ont révélé la présence de dysfonctions modérées dans 11 domaines cognitifs durant l’abstinence à court terme, et dans 10 domaines cognitifs pour le moyen-terme. Des dysfonctions cognitives minimales furent notées durant l’abstinence à long-terme. Conclusions : Ces résultats révèlent des déficits cognitifs significatifs et diffus durant la première année d’abstinence. Déficits qui se normalisent après un an. Ces résultats soutiennent l’hypothèse de déficits cognitifs diffus reliés à l’alcoolisme et suggèrent que la cognition devrait faire partie intégrante du traitement d’alcoolisme. / Background: The cognitive repercussions of alcoholism are well documented. However, the literature remains somewhat ambiguous with which distinct cognitive functions are more susceptible to impairment in alcoholism and to how duration of abstinence affects cognitive recovery. Some theories claim alcohol negatively affects specific cognitive functions while others assert that deficits are more diffuse in nature. We performed the first meta-analysis to examine cognition in alcoholism and how duration of abstinence affects cognitive recovery. Methods: A literature search yielded 62 studies assessing cognitive dysfunction among alcoholics. Effect size estimates were calculated using the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis V2, for the following 12 cognitive domains: intelligence quotient, verbal fluency/language, speed of processing, working memory, attention, problem solving/executive functions, inhibition/impulsivity, verbal learning, verbal memory, visual learning, visual memory, and visuo-spatial abilities. Within these 12 domains, 3 effect size estimates were calculated based on abstinence duration and partitioned into short- (<1 month), intermediate- (2 to 12 months) and long- (>1 year) term abstinence. Results: Findings revealed moderate impairment across 11 cognitive domains during short term abstinence with moderate impairment across 10 domains during intermediate term abstinence, and overall small effect size estimates during long term abstinence. Conclusions: Results suggest significant cognitive dysfunction during the first year following abstinence from alcohol and that long term abstinence yields near normalisation of cognitive function. These findings support the diffuse brain deficits hypothesis. Clinical implications suggest that cognition may need to be considered an integral part of the treatment of alcoholism.

Introduction It is widely reported that people with schizophrenia have social cognition deficits. In addition to their negative impact on functioning and quality of life, these deficits may also contribute to the use of violence. It has recently been established that social cognitive interventions (SCIs) can ameliorate deficits in facial affect recognition (FAR). This project aimed to systematically review whether SCIs can also improve theory of mind (ToM) abilities in people with schizophrenia. The empirical study aimed to explore whether the extent of the deficits in FAR and ToM in people with schizophrenia differed between those with and without a substantial history of violence. Method A systematic review was undertaken to identify studies where SCIs were provided to adults with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Key findings were highlighted with the quality of the studies’ methodology and reporting assessed. A quantitative research study was also undertaken involving 22 men aged 18-64 with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder, comparing those with and without a substantial history of violence (SHV) on measures of FAR and ToM. Results The majority of the 13 studies included in the systematic review found that the provision of SCIs led to significant improvements in ToM. However, all studies demonstrated a potential for bias and were limited by inadequate sample size. In the empirical study, less than half of participants scored within the normal range for overall FAR ability, with no difference identified between the SHV and no-SHV group. However, the SHV group were poorer at recognising sadness and showed a tendency to perform better at the detection of faux pas, compared to the no-SHV group. Conclusions The systematic review identified that a wide range of SCIs can improve ToM abilities in people with schizophrenia. Its findings highlight that stringent, adequately powered studies should be undertaken, utilising standardised assessments of a range of levels of ToM ability, to enable identification of the most effective intervention. The findings of the empirical study are limited by a small and imbalanced sample size between groups and so must be interpreted with caution. However, patterns observed in the results highlight areas for further exploration. The strengths of this study’s design and recruitment challenges are discussed.

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is an umbrella term for disorders involving deficits in social interaction, stereotyped behaviours and communication dificulties. A growing area of research has recently focused on motor deficits in ASD, which have been noted in clinical observations and diagnostic criteria since autism was first described. However, motor deficits have traditionally carried little weight in the diagnostic procedure. Until recent changes to diagnostic criteria (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 5th edition: DSM-5), a comorbid diagnosis of Developmental Coordination Disorder (DCD: a neurodevelopmental disorder affecting motor development) was not possible for those with ASD and motor deficits. This exclusion criterion prompted an investigation of the nature of motor deficits in ASD, questioning whether they are characteristically different from motor deficits in DCD. Previous literature suggested a possible double dissociation in the use of vision and proprioception to guide movement and perception in ASD and DCD, with a reliance on proprioception in ASD, and an over-reliance on vision in DCD. Motor deficits were first investigated by looking at high-level motor skills, and then more basic sensory processing associated with movement to investigate this possible dissociation. There was no significant difference between ASD and DCD on a standardised motor battery (Movement Assessment Battery for Children 2nd edition: MABC-2), with 70% of children with ASD showing motor difficulties within the clinical range on tasks such as timed manual dexterity tasks and balance. Similarly, children with ASD and poor motor skills were indistinguishable from children with DCD on a number of basic motor tasks manipulating visual and proprioceptive cues. These tests included spatial location matching, reaching, goal-directed movements towards proprioceptively-defined targets, and the rubber hand illusion. Children with poor motor skills with a diagnosis of either ASD or DCD seemed to either rely more heavily on visual cues, or behaved in a similar way to typically developing (TD) children. In the spatial location matching task, children with ASD and spared motor skills showed a tendency to give more weight to proprioceptive cues, however too few children with ASD and spared motor skills took part in other tasks to fully investigate cue weighting in this subgroup. Mirroring the overlap in social and motor skills in the clinical groups, a study of the relationship between perceived social and motor ability in a large sample of TD children highlighted the related nature of these developmental domains in typical development. It is concluded that motor deficits in ASD are not ASD-specific but are instead indicative of an additional diagnosis of DCD. This is supported by the recent change to diagnostic criteria.

Research on factors that contribute to the forms and functions of aggression (reactive, proactive, relational, and overt) is important for informing intervention efforts with aggressive youth. Previous research shows that aggressive youth often have cognitive and social deficits associated with their aggressive behavior. For example, aggressive youth may exhibit deficits in social variables such as social intelligence (i.e., the understanding of behaviors of people and ability to predict outcomes of situations). Hypothetically, this lack of social intelligence may be related to how youth interpret social situations, and could conceivably lead to hostile attributional bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous stimuli as hostile. The main purpose of this study was to examine whether HAB mediated the relationship between social intelligence and reactive relational aggression in a sample of detained adolescent boys (ages 12-18). The results failed to support this hypothesis. Supplemental analyses explored whether HAB moderated the relationship between social intelligence and the subtypes of aggression, but results were not consistent with this hypothesis.

The current study investigated the predictive utility of callous-unemotional (CU) traits and emotional facilitation to distress (EFD) for multiple antisocial outcomes in a sample of juvenile justice-involved males. Although CU traits and EFD did not generally interact to predict antisocial outcomes, CU traits were a consistent predictor of total, proactive, and reactive forms of aggression over 18 months. Similarly, CU traits and time interacted to predict total and violent self-reported offending, such that CU traits were positively associated with both outcomes, but this association weakened over the 18 month timeframe. Racial and ethnic differences only emerged for the prediction of days to any arrest or a violent arrest. Specifically, different factors appear to be important of the prediction of any arrest across racial/ethnic groups, whereas being Black was associated with fewer days to arrest, despite self-reporting similar levels of violent offending. Last, a joint trajectory model for CU traits and EFD was not estimated due to a lack of stability in EFD. However, the majority of the sample exhibited average or increasing levels of CU traits over the 18 month timeframe, highlighting the importance of examining not only the factors that can result in CU traits, but also the factors that can lead to increases in CU traits over time in justice-involved youth.

The aim of this master thesis is to empirically validate "hypothesis of twin deficits", resulting from Mundell-Fleming model, in the Czech Republic in years 1999-2010. The econometric method used was VAR models and Impulse Response Functions based on these models. Analysis proved that as a result of government deficit increase, through exchange rate appreciation, the balance of foreign trade deteriorates. Another fact discovered is that people are partially behaving as described by Ricardo-Barro equivalence. Their reaction on increased government deficit is increase of their personal savings as well as consumption. But increase of personal savings is not sufficiently compensating the deficit in government budget. Similar results were achieved also in analysis of government spendings.

Para descrever os achados da espectroscopia de prótons (1H-ERM) na doença de Alzheimer (DA) e no comprometimento cognitivo sem demência (CIND) em uma amostra da comunidade foram avaliados 13 pacientes com DA, 12 com CIND e 15 controles normais. A 1H-ERM foi realizada com voxel de 8 cm3 nas regiões temporal direita, parietal esquerda e occipital medial estudando os metabólitos: N-acetilaspartato (NAA), creatina (Cr), colina (Cho) e mio-inositol (mI). O NAA foi maior nos indivíduos controles do que nos DA e intermediário no CIND; o mI foi maior no grupo DA do que nos controles; a Cho mostrou tendência a estar aumentada na DA e CIND. Correlação entre os testes cognitivos e a 1H-ERM confirmou a hipótese de que alterações metabólicas estão presentes quando do aparecimento das primeiras alterações cognitivas. A espectroscopia pode, em função disso, contribuir para o diagnóstico e seguimento de indivíduos com queixa de memória em indivíduos da comunidade com a possibilidade de diagnósticos mais precoces. / For the description of the proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-ERM) data in Alzheimer´s disease (AD) and Cognitive Impairment Not Dementia (CIND) in a community set, subjects with AD (n=13), CIND (n=12) and normal control (n=15) were investigated. 1H-ERM was performance with single voxel (8 cm3) placed in temporal, parietal e occipital region and studied metabolites: N-acetylaspartate (NAA), creatine (Cr), choline (Cho) and myo-inositol (mI). NAA concentration was higher in control subjects than AD and intermediated level in CIND patients; mI was higher in patients with AD and CIND; Cho tended to be higher in AD and CIND. Metabolisms changes are present together the first cognitive deficits as showed by correlation between cognitive tests and 1H-ERM. Spectroscopy can be used in the diagnosis and follow-up of individuals with memory complain in the community set with the possibility of early diagnosis

The aim of this work is to study the phenomenon of suicide of seniors in the context of PBSP needs. The suicidality of seniors is a serious problem and it can be assumed that its importance will increase as a result of aging of population. I tried to find out which PBSP needs are in the largest deficit in sucidal threatened seniors and how to describe the phenomenon of suicidality of elderly people. This dissertation project was realized in the form of a qualitative research study, namely the method of interpretative phenomenological analysis, the principle of which is the study of living human experience and its individualized meaning, supplemented by other relevant research methods. The primary source of data was semi-structured interviews with seniors who had suicidal thoughts, tendencies, or attempts. This research confirmed that every need of a suicidal senior can be detected by the PBSP system and then use it to better understand how to work with this individual. The need, which respondents had in the biggest deficit, was the need of place (doubt about one's own place in the world, loneliness, and the loss of meaning). It also turned out that suicidal ideas of seniors, no matter how many actually acts suicidal, unexpectedly high. The risk and safety factors, that this research has shown,...

This study examines the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth in developing countries. Based on deduction from the relevant theoretical and empirical literature, the study tests the following hypotheses regarding the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth. First, fiscal deficits have significant positive or negative impact on economic growth in developing countries. Second, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on the size of deficits as a percentage of GDP - that is, there is a non-linear relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth. Third, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on the ways in which deficits are financed. Fourth, the impact of fiscal deficits on economic growth depends on what deficit financing is used for. The study also examines whether there are any significant regional differences in terms of the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in developing countries. The study uses panel data for thirty-one developing countries covering the period 1972- 2001, which is analysed based on the econometric estimation of a dynamic growth model using the Arellano and Bond (1991) generalised method of moments (GMM) technique. Overall, the results suggest the following. First, fiscal deficits per se have no any significant positive or negative impact on economic growth. Second, by contrast, when the deficit is substituted by domestic and foreign financing, we find that both domestic and foreign financing of fiscal deficits exerts a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth with a lag. Third, we find that both categories of economic classification of government expenditure, namely, capital and current expenditure, have no significant impact on economic growth. When government expenditure is disaggregated on the basis of a functional classification, the results suggest that spending on education, defence and economic services have positive but insignificant impact on growth, while spending on health and general public services have positive and significant impact. Fourth, in terms of regional differences with regard to the estimated relationships, the study finds that, while there are some regional differences between the four different regions represented in our sample of thirty-one developing countries - namely, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa - these differences are not statistically significant. On the basis of these findings, the study concludes that fiscal deficits per se are not necessarily good or bad for economic growth in developing countries; how the deficits are financed and what they are used for matters. In addition, the study concludes that there are no statistically significant regional differences in terms of the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth in developing countries.