Submitted by Kamila Costa (kamilavasconceloscosta@gmail.com) on 2015-06-12T20:37:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao-Werley M Takeda.pdf: 2678050 bytes, checksum: 44000c59a239d5b966efb9137a721331 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-06-15T18:25:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao-Werley M Takeda.pdf: 2678050 bytes, checksum: 44000c59a239d5b966efb9137a721331 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2015-06-15T18:26:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao-Werley M Takeda.pdf: 2678050 bytes, checksum: 44000c59a239d5b966efb9137a721331 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-15T18:26:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao-Werley M Takeda.pdf: 2678050 bytes, checksum: 44000c59a239d5b966efb9137a721331 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-24 / Não Informada / The timber industry has contributed increasingly to the economy and shown itself as an important and promising economic activity. In Brazil the activity gains greater importance due to the country’s reserves of tropical forests internationally recognized as the world's largest ones. Although the region’s abundant forest assets that offer huge potential for sustained timber forestry, increased deforestation is observed. In an attempt to curb the illegal exploitation and stop deforestation, the government developed an electronic control mechanism of forest products and by-products, which served as a primary source of information in order to diagnose the forest sector in the Western Amazon, between 2007 and 2013. Important results for forest management stand up such as: 1) relevance of small farms; 2) predominance of projects in areas not subject to flooding with an incidence of at least 3 dry months; and 3) greater inclination of municipalities to deforestation profile at the expense of forest production. For clear-cutting activities, it was observed: 1) greater relevance of small farms; and 2) concentration and importance of the activity in Roraima and Acre states. As for the wood consumption, it is shown the importance of municipalities member of intermediate and old logging frontiers, and the preference for woods with characteristics very similar in density and destination of use. Finally, it is concluded that the forest management activity showed a growth of up to 2.71 times during the study period, while clearing activity decreased up to 13.31 times in the same period. Properties with up to 500 ha were more representative for both activities. Most forest management projects are located in regions with at least three dry months. The cities examined are often more inclined to deforestation, rather than timber production from forest management. Forestry activities were located near the transport infrastructure, whether natural or constructed. The assessment of similarity demonstrated the formation of clusters consisting mainly by municipalities in the same state. / O setor madeireiro tem contribuído de forma crescente com a economia do país e se mostra como uma importante e promissora atividade econômica. No Brasil a atividade ganha maior relevância devido as suas reservas de florestas tropicais internacionalmente reconhecidas como as maiores do mundo. Embora a região disponha de ativos florestais abundantes que representam um enorme potencial para a exploração florestal madeireira sustentada, observase o aumento do desmatamento. Na tentativa de coibir a exploração ilegal e conter o desmatamento, o poder público desenvolveu um mecanismo de controle eletrônico dos produtos e subprodutos florestais, o qual serviu como fonte primária de informações, a fim de diagnosticar o setor florestal na Amazônia Ocidental, entre 2007 e 2013. Como resultados importantes para manejo florestal, destacaram-se a: 1) relevância das pequenas propriedades; 2) predominância de projetos em regiões não sujeitas a inundações e com ocorrência de pelo menos 3 meses secos; e 3) maior inclinação dos municípios ao perfil de desmatamento em detrimento da produção florestal. Para a atividade de desmatamento observou-se: 1) maior relevância das pequenas propriedades; e 2) concentração e importância da atividade em Roraima e no Acre. Quanto ao consumo de madeira evidenciou-se a importância de municípios integrantes das fronteiras madeireiras intermediária e antiga, bem como a preferência por madeiras com características muito similares de densidade e destinação de uso. Por fim, conclui-se que a atividade de manejo florestal apresentou um crescimento de até 2,71 vezes, ao longo do tempo do estudo, enquanto a atividade de desmatamento decresceu até 13,31 vezes, no mesmo período. As propriedades com até 500 ha apresentaram-se mais representativas para ambas atividades. A maior parte dos projetos de manejo florestal se localiza em regiões que apresentam, pelo menos, três meses secos. Os municípios analisados apresentam-se mais inclinados ao desmatamento, em detrimento da produção madeireira manejada. As atividades florestais localizam-se próximas as infraestruturas de transportes, sejam elas naturais ou construídas. A avaliação da similaridade demonstrou a formação de agrupamentos constituídos principalmente por municípios do mesmo estado.

Although much emphasis has been given to the analysis of continuous forest conversion in tropical regions, our understanding in detecting, mapping and interpreting the spatial pattern of woodland deforestation and degradation is still limited. This thesis focuses on two factors contributing to this limitation: uncertainties in retrieving woodland change from remote sensing imagery, and the complex processes that may cause woodland deforestation and degradation. Firstly, I investigate approaches to minimising uncertainty in ALOS PALSAR-derived biomass maps by modifying a widely used processing chain, with the aim of provide recommendations for producing radar-based biomass maps with reduced uncertainty. Secondly, to further improve the retrieval of woody biomass from ALOS PALSAR imagery, the semi-empirical Water Cloud Model (WCM) is introduced to account for backscattering from soil. In wooded areas with low canopy (such as the miombo woodland which dominates the study area) the effect from soil moisture on the received backscattered signal is critical. Thirdly, based on the biomass maps retrieved from the refined radar-remote-sensing-based methodology discussed above, the influence of driving variables of the woodland deforestation and degradation, and how they alter the spatial patterns of these two processes, are analysed. The threshold for defining woodland deforestation and degradation in terms of biomass loss intensity is generated through integration of radar-based biomass loss maps, an optical forest cover change map and fieldwork investigation. Multi-linear model simulations of the spatial variation of deforestation and degradation events were constructed at a district and 1 km resolution respectively to rank the relative importance of driving variables. Results suggest that biomass-backscatter relationships based on plots of approximately 1 ha, and processed with high resolution DEMs, are needed for low uncertainty biomass maps using ALOS PALSAR data. Although plots sizes of 0.1 - 0.5 ha lead to large uncertainties, aggregating 0.1 ha plots into larger calibration sites shows some promise even in hilly terrain, potentially opening up the use of common forest inventory data to calibrate remote-sensing-based biomass retrieval models. Such relationships appear to hold across the miombo woodland ecoregion, which implies that there is a consistent relationship at least in the miombo woodland. From this I infer that random error, different processing methods and fitting techniques, and data from small plots are the source of the differences in the savanna biomass-backscatter relationships seen in the literature. The interpreted WCM presented in this study for L-band backscatter at HV polarisation improves biomass retrieval for areas with a biomass value less than 15 tC/ha (or 0.025 m2/m2 in backscatter). Use of the WCM also results in better quality regional biomass mosaics. This is because the WCM helped to improve the correlation of biomass estimation for overlay areas by reducing bias between adjacent paths, especially the bias introduced by changes in soil moisture conditions between different acquisition dates for different paths. Result shows that active and combined soil moisture datasets (from the Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture Dataset) can be used as effective soil moisture proxies in the WCM for biomass retrieval. This quantitative analysis on the driving variables of woodland deforestation and degradation suggests that large uncertainty exists in modelling the occurrence of deforestation and degradation, especially at a 1 km scale. The spatial patterns of woodland deforestation and degradation differ in terms of shape, size, intensity, and location. Agriculture-related driving variables account for most of the explained variance in deforestation, whereas for degradation, distance to settlements also plays an important role. Deforestation happens regardless of the original biomass levels, while degradation is likely to happen at high biomass areas. The sizes of degradation events are significantly smaller than those of deforestation events, with 90% of deforestation events sharing boundaries with degradation events. This thesis concludes by outlining the importance and difficulties in integrating 'distal' (underlying) drivers in modelling the spatial dynamics of deforestation and degradation. Further work on the causal connection between deforestation and degradation is also needed. The processing chain and biomass retrieval models presented in this study could be used to support monitoring and analysis of biomass change elsewhere in the tropics, and should be compatible with data derived from ALOS-2 and the future SAOCOM and BIOMASS satellite missions.

Este trabalho buscou quantificar alguns impactos no ciclo hidrológico, especialmente o padrão de precipitação, decorrentes do desmatamento regional nas proximidades da rodovia Cuiabá-Santarém (BR-163), por meio de um experimento numérico de simulação da atmosfera com o modelo RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), na versão brasileira (Brazilian RAMS – BRAMS), com alta resolução (célula de 16x16 km). Foi utilizado um cenário de desmatamento, provido por modelos empíricos de desmatamento, para o ano de 2026, numa situação sem governância, com um tempo de simulação de 40 dias entre 20 de Outubro a 30 de Novembro. Os dados de forçamento na fronteira utilizaram a reanálise do NCEP para o ano de 2002. Houve uma redução média de 7% do padrão de chuva na região após o desmatamento, na área perturbada, e não houve efeitos substanciais nas regiões além da fronteira de desmatamento como um todo. Porém, a distribuição heterogênea do uso da terra induziu à formação de uma célula térmica, sobre a região desmatada, que resultou em uma certa variabilidade espacial da chuva próxima ao setor de desmatamento. Uma célula térmica induziu o levantamento de massa (por convergência) aproximadamente acima da região desmatada, carregando vapor d’água proveniente das regiões de floresta nas adjacências, e promovendo a formação de chuva convectiva. A extensão da célula, entre os dois ramos descendentes, foi aproximadamente o dobro da extensão da faixa de desmatamento. Neste caso da BR-163, a célula foi levemente deslocada para oeste, onde ocorreu aumento da precipitação. A leste, e sobre o setor central do desmatamento, houve redução da precipitação. Notou-se uma pequena mudança na distribuição da chuva ao longo do dia no caso do desmatamento, que não mostrou um horário de máxima precipitação bem definido, e também sugeriu um pequeno aumento da chuva no período noturno. As respostas ao desmatamento ocorreram de forma diferenciada conforme a faixa de topografia analisada. Nas áreas além das fronteiras do desmatamento, houve um pequeno sinal de redução da chuva, nos setores de cota superior à 500 m. / This study aim was to evaluate some impacts on the hydrological cycle, specially the precipitation pattern, due to the regional deforestation along the corridor of the Cuiaba-Santarem highway (BR-163), using a high resolution (16x16 km grid) atmospheric model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), in its Brazilian version, the Brazilian RAMS or BRAMS. A deforestation scenario for 2026 has been provided by empirical models of deforestation, under no governance conditions (also known as the business-as-usual scenario) and it has been used in this study. The time length of simulation was 40 days, from October 10th to November 30th. The forcing data of 2002 were provided by the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project. Mean rainfall decreased 7% in the region in which the forest was replaced by pasture. There were no substantial changes where the forest land cover was kept undisturbed. However, the rainfall showed spatial variability due to the local circulation (thermal) induced by land cover heterogeneity. Over the pasture area (deforestation), hot air rises by convergence carrying water vapor from the undisturbed forest located close to the pasture increasing the convective precipitation. This local cell is approximately twice as big as the deforestation length. In the BR-163 study case, the cell was located nearest to the west side of the land cover transition area (forest-pasture) where the rainfall rate increased. On the east side and over the deforestation area, the precipitation rate was reduced. The diurnal cycle of the precipitation has been slightly changed in the deforestation case. During the day, it was not possible to identify the rainfall maximum while at night it suggested a slightly increase of precipitation. The response of the fluxes and surface variables may be different depending on its topography level. A small rainfall reduction has been observed where the forest was kept undisturbed over 500 meters.

Le contrôle de la déforestation, par la mise en place par les autorités étatiques d'interdits et de restriction sur l'usage des ressources forestières, se heurte à des difficultés de succès dans beaucoup de pays en développement. L'approche actuelle consiste souvent à rendre aux communautés locales le contrôle de leurs ressources, lorsque l'Etat et les marchés n'arrivent pas à résoudre les problèmes comme la gestion des externalités négatives dans le cas d'une exploitation de ressources en propriété commune et de la provision de biens publics. Cet article analyse les solutions crédibles et durables aux problèmes de coordination dans l'usage de la forêt classée de Tiogo au Burkina Faso.

The African Sahel is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate variability at different time scales. It is an arid to semi-arid region with limited water resources. The summer rainfall is one of these sources, but it exhibits pronounced interannual variability. This thesis presents several aspects of Sahelian Sudan rainfall. Sudan is located at the eastern fringe of the Sahel and its least studied part. We have examined the impact of tropical deforestation on the rainfall, the moisture sources of the region and the temporal characteristics of the observed and modeled rainfall. In a sensitivity study we performed three simulations, one control simulation and then setting the surface condition of South Sudan to either grass or desert conditions. The rainfall was reduced by 0.1 − 0.9 in the grass scenario and by 0.1 − 2.1 mm day−1 (hereafter mm d−1) in the desert scenario. These changes also propagated northward into Sahelian Sudan, indicating a remote impact. The total moisture convergence into Sahelian Sudan was reduced by 11.5% and 21.9% for grass and desert conditions, respectively. The change in moisture convergence into the region motivated a comprehensive analysis of the moisture sources for the region. Two different modeling approaches, Lagrangian and Eulerian, were applied to identify the moisture sources and quantify their contributions to the total annual rainfall budget. The analysis shows that atmospheric flows associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), e.g. from Guinea Coast, Central African and Western Sahel, brings about 40% − 50% of the annual moisture supply, while local evaporation adds about 20%. The rest of the moisture comes from the Mediterranean, Arabian Peninsula and the Southern part of the Indian Ocean. While there were differences in the details between the results from the two modeling approaches, they agree on the larger scale results. In an attempt to characterize the temporal character of the rainfall, observed and modeled daily rainfall from different regional climate models was classified into five categories: weak (0.1 −1.0), moderate (&gt;1.0 − 10.0), moderately strong (&gt;10.0 − 20.0), strong (&gt;20.0 − 30.0), and very strong (&gt;30.0) mm d−1. We found that most rain-days were in the weak to moderate rainfall categories, accounting for 60% − 75%. Days that have strong rainfall represent about 6% of the total rain-days, yet they represent about 28% − 48% of the total amount of the annual rainfall. Regional climate models fail to produce the strong rainfall, instead most of the modeled rain-days are in the moderate category and consequently the models overestimated the number of rain-days per year. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

Land-use changes impact the energy balance of the Earth system, and feedbacks in the Earth system can dampen or amplify this perturbation. We analyze here from satellite data the response of clouds and subsequently radiation to a change of land use for the example of deforestation in the Amazon Basin. In this region, the characteristics of different cloud types over two vegetation types (forest and crop-/grasslands) were calculated for a time period of five years by using satellite data from the instruments MODIS and CERES. The cloud types are defined according to height, optical thickness, and fraction of cloud cover. For calculating the radiative forcing caused by deforestation, the dependency of spatial and temporal averages for the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation of the top of the atmosphere on vegetation types were determined as well. The results show distinct differences in cloud cover and radiative forcing over crop-/grasslands and forests for the two vegetation regimes, implying a potentially significant positive cloud feedback to deforestation.

Als Reaktion auf die fortschreitende, anthropogen bedingte Veränderung und Zerstörung der Ökosysteme fand 1992 die Konferenz der Vereinten Nationen über Umwelt und Entwicklung in Rio de Janeiro statt. Die Konferenz markiert aus heutiger Sicht einen Startpunkt multilateraler Umweltschutzbemühungen, da offiziell formuliert wurde, dass die lokal auftretenden Umweltprobleme durch globale Veränderungen hervorgerufen werden und nur durch gemeinsame Bemühungen auf internationaler Ebene zu bewältigen sind. Ergebnis dieser Konferenz war die Verabschiedung verschiedener internationaler Abkommen zum Umweltschutz. Wälder spielen dabei in ihrer Funktion als Kohlenstoffspeicher und als terrestrischer Lebensraum mit der höchsten Artenvielfalt eine zentrale Rolle. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellen sich für die Waldinventur neue Aufgaben, sowohl bezüglich der zu erfassenden Zielgrößen als auch hinsichtlich der Rahmenbedingungen, da die erhobenen Informationen nicht mehr nur auf Betriebsebene für die Planung der Bewirtschaftung verwendet werden, sondern auch für die Erfüllung der internationalen Berichtspflichten. Als zentrale Größe des Waldmonitorings muss die Waldfläche gesehen werden, da sie die Grundlage für die meisten Berechnungen ist. Daneben wird die Waldfragmentierung, also die Form und räumliche Verteilung der Waldflächen, häufig als Indikator für die Biodiversität diskutiert. Die fernerkundliche Erfassung der Waldfläche und die Beschreibung der Waldfragmentierung mit Landschaftsstrukturmaßen (LSM) im Kontext der internationalen Umweltabkommen ist Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit. Zielsetzung ist es, kritische methodische und technische Aspekte, welche die Schätzung der Waldfläche und die Berechnung der LSM beeinflussen, zu identifizieren und ihre Wirkungen zu analysieren. Anhand einer Literaturrecherche wurden zunächst vier kritische Faktoren identifiziert: i) die Walddefinition, ii) die Waldranddefinition, iii) der Beobachtungsmaßstab und iv) das Landschaftsmodell, welches für die Berechnung der LSM verwendet wird. Die Effekte und Wechselwirkungen zwischen den vier genannten Faktoren wurden im zweiten Teil der Arbeit auf Grundlage einer Simulationsstudie untersucht. Dafür wurden Kronenkarten und Geländemodelle auf Basis von Gauß'schen Zufallsfeldern in verschiedenen Auflösungstufen simuliert. Durch Variation der Mindestüberschirmung  und der Größe der Referenzfläche, auf der die Überschirmung gemessen wird, konnten aus den Kronenkarten Waldkarten mit unterschiedlichen Wald- und Waldranddefinitionen erstellt werden. Zusätzlich wurde der Einfluss des Landschaftsmodells auf die Berechnung der LSM untersucht. Dies geschah mit Hilfe eines neuen Verfahrens, das die Berechnung der LSM im dreidimensionalen Raum ermöglicht. Die Ergebnisse der Simulation zeigen, dass alle vier Faktoren einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf die Waldflächenkarten haben können. Dabei ergeben sich besonders für die Kronenüberschirmung und die Referenzflächengröße spezifische Wechselwirkungen, die sich teilweise mit einem einfachen geometrischen Waldrandmodell theoretisch erklären lassen. So zeigt sich, dass besonders für Walddefinitionen mit einer Mindestüberschirmung, die stark von 50 % abweicht, die Referenzflächengröße einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die Waldfläche und Fragmentierung hat. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen der Simulationstudie wurde im 3. Teil der Arbeit ein Klassifikationschschema entwickelt, das es ermöglicht spezifische Kriterien einer Walddefinition in den Auswertungs- und Klassifikationsprozess von Fernerkundungsdaten zu integrieren, um standardisierte Waldkarten zu erstellen. Beispielhafte Grundlage war die Walddefinition der Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), die Wald als eine Landnutzungsform beschreibt. Im Gegensatz zu Landbedeckungsformen können Landnutzungsklassen nicht direkt in Fernerkundungsdaten beobachtet werden. Zur Erstellung einer Landnutzungskarte  müssen daher neben den Landbedeckungsklassen weitere Kontextinformationen berücksichtigt werden. Dafür wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein hierarchischer Klassifikationsschlüssel entwickelt, der ausgehend von einer Landbedeckungskarte, eine Landnutzungs- und eine Waldkarte generiert. Die benötigten Kontextinformationen werden dabei mit Hilfe von Entscheidungsbäumen, die auf eine fixe Referenzfläche angewendet werden, berücksichtigt. Dieses Verfahren ermöglicht es, Waldkarten zu erstellen, die einer bestimmten vorher festgelegten  Walddefinition entsprechen. Insofern kann das Verfahren zur Standardisierung der Waldflächenerfassung beitragen.  Darüber hinaus bietet es die Möglichkeit die Walddefinition durch Änderung der Kriterien oder der Schwellenwerte flexibel anzupassen, sodass es als wissenschaftliches Werkzeug zur Analyse des Effektes verschiedener Walddefinitionen verwendet werden kann. Im letzten Teil der Arbeit wurde eine Fallstudie durchgeführt, die untersucht inwieweit sich das entwickelte Verfahren operational für die Waldflächenerfassung einsetzen lässt. Da der Fokus der internationalen Umweltabkommen auf den tropischen Waldgebieten liegt, wurden für die Fallstudie zwei unterschiedliche tropische Waldlandschaften in Costa Rica ausgewählt. Zur Klassifikation der Landbedeckung kamen Satellitenbilder des RapidEye-Systems mit einer räumlichen Auflösung von 5 m zum Einsatz. Für die Klassifikation der Landbedeckung wurde zunächst eine Software entwickelt, welche atmosphärische und topographische Korrekturen, Bildverbesserung, nicht-parametrische Klassifikationsverfahren und den, im dritten Teil der Arbeit entwickelten hierarchischen Klassifikationsansatz für die Erstellung der Landnutzungskarten, implementiert. Die Ergebnisse der Fallstudie zeigen, dass das entwickelte Verfahren geeignet ist, Waldkarten für stark fragmentierte tropische Landschaften zu erstellen. Die Waldkarten entsprechen einer zuvor festgelegten Walddefinition (z. B. FAO), in der die einzelnen Kriterien (u. a. Mindestüberschirmung, Mindestgröße, vorherrschende Landnutzung) während der Klassifikation explizit geprüft werden. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt theoretisch, empirisch und auch in der praktischen Anwendung, dass eine Vielzahl von Faktoren die Erfassung der Waldfläche beeinflusst. Einer der wichtigsten Faktoren ist dabei die Walddefinition. Die übliche Praxis bei der fernerkundlichen Erstellung von Waldkarten, die Klasse "Wald" ohne expliziten Bezug auf geeignete Kriterien direkt auszuweisen, führt zu großen Unsicherheiten bei der Waldflächenschätzung und ist im Rahmen von international verbindlichen Abkommen kaum akzeptabel. Die Entscheidung welche Walddefinition verwendet werden soll, wird in politischen Verhandlungen bestimmt. Aufgabe der Waldinventur muss es dann sein, diese politischen Vorgaben umzusetzen. Die hier vorgestellten Methoden können insofern zur Standardisierung der fernerkundlichen Waldflächenerfassung beitragen, als das sie transparente Entscheidungsregeln implementieren und somit konsistente Waldkarten erzeugen.

This thesis investigates the question how emissions from land‐use displacement can be assessed and accounted for, using the example of carbon‐leakage accounting in the planned UNFCCC mechanism on ‘Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation’ (REDD). REDD serves here as example of an international forest conservation policy that might be effective locally but could lead to displacement of deforestation to other countries. Although leakage processes within countries are initially considered, the focus of the thesis is on international displacement effects. The first part of the thesis reviews existing accounting methods for land‐use displacement from different research fields and assesses their usefulness to quantify carbon leakage from REDD. Results show that it is very difficult to assess policy‐induced (or strong) carbon leakage due to the requirement to demonstrate causal links between the policy in question and the observed land‐use changes, especially at international scale. Other accounting methods focus on demand‐driven (or weak) carbon leakage, by establishing a link between international demand and consumption patterns and land‐use changes as their  distant effects. Methods to quantify such teleconnections commonly combine land‐use accounting with tradeflow assessments to link international trade streams and consumption with environmental impacts such as land use or land‐use changes arising in the production of traded commodities. A methodological challenge is currently the quantification of emissions from land‐use change generated by distant linkages between production and consumption locations. Responding to this shortcoming, in the second part of the thesis a new method to assess these teleconnections is developed. The ‘land‐use change carbon footprint’ allows quantifying the extent to which landuse changes and associated emissions in a given country are promoted by the production of export goods, and thus are due to international demand for ‐ and consumption of ‐ forest‐risk commodities. The understanding of such distant deforestation drivers can be useful in several contexts, such as the design of conservation policies like REDD, which risk being less effective as globalized deforestation drivers pose a high risk for international leakages; or the planning of demand‐side measures that could complement supply‐side action in decreasing global deforestation levels. Demand‐side measures, such as zero‐deforestation embargos, regulations or certification schemes, could eventually contribute to decrease the risk for international land‐use displacement by addressing global consumption levels and commodity demand as one of the underlying driving forces of land‐use change and deforestation. / Avhandlingen undersöker hur utsläpp av växthusgaser, genererade genom en förskjutning av markanvändning, kan bedömas och redovisas. Detta exemplifieras genom analys av UNFCCC’s mekanism ”Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation ‐ REDD”. REDD betraktas här som ett exempel på en internationell skogsskyddspolicy som kan fungera effektivt på lokal nivå, men som ändå kan leda till förskjutning av avskogningen till andra länder. Den första delen av avhandlingen analyserar befintliga  redovisningsmetoder för förskjutning av markanvändning från olika forskningsområden och bedömer deras användbarhet när det gäller kvantifiering av koldioxidläckage från REDD. Resultaten visar att det är mycket svårt att bedöma policy‐genererat koldioxidläckage på grund av kravet att påvisa orsakssamband mellan policyn i fråga och de observerade förändringarna av markanvändningen. Andra redovisningsmetoder fokuserar på såkallade teleconnections, genom att upprätta en länk mellan internationell konsumtionsmönster och miljöpåverkan (t.ex. effekter på global markanvändning) som uppstår på grund av produktion av handelsvaror. Metoder för att bedöma sådant efterfrågestyrt koldioxidläckage brukar kombinera markanvändnings‐redovisning med bedömningar av handelsflöde för att knyta ihop internationella konsumtion med globala förändringar av markanvändningen. För närvarande är den metodologiska utmaningen att kvantifiera utsläppen från en förändrad markanvändning till följd av teleconnections. Ett förslag på en  metodlösning utvecklas inom den andra delen av avhandlingen. Indikatorn "land‐use change carbon footprint (LUC‐CFP) som kan kopplas med handelsflödesanalys ger möjlighet att kvantifiera i vilken utsträckning en förändrad markanvändning och tillhörande utsläpp i ett visst land främjas av produktionen av exportvaror. Därmed visas hur internationell efterfrågan och konsumtion av produkter fungerar som drivkraft bakom avskogning. Förståelsen för dessa globala drivkrafter kan vara användbar i flera sammanhang. Exempel är utformningen av bevarandepolicies som REDD, vilka riskerar att bli mindre effektiv när globaliserade drivkrafter bakom avskogning utgör en hög risk för internationellt läckage; eller planeringen av policyåtgärder från efterfrågesidan. Genom att ta itu med globala konsumtionsnivåer och efterfrågan på handelsvaror, som är en av de bakomliggande drivkrafterna för avskogning, kan man så småningom bidra till att minska risken för internationellt förskjutning av markanvändning.

This dissertation comprises two components. Component A consists of background to the research and includes the problem statement, aim and objectives. It also includes the literature review, which provides details on the concept of community-based natural resources management (CBNRM) and its benefits as a participatory approach adopted in the management of natural resources. Component B is presented as a research paper that complies with the requirements of the selected journal for purposes of publication shown in appendix I. Relevant information on the purpose of the study and background to the concept of CBNRM from component A is included in component B for purposes of the research paper. It also includes research findings, analysis and conclusions of the study. CBNRM has been identified as a feasible participatory approach to natural resources management based on community needs and priorities. This research reviews the implementation of the Community Environmental Management Programme (CEMP) as a participatory approach adopted by the Zambian Government to address growing environmental concerns, with particular reference to deforestation, as a result of human activities. This study focuses on Luansobe settlement in Mufulira district, one of eight districts in which the CEMP is being implemented as a pilot project. Luansobe is located in the peri-urban area of Mufulira. The majority of the people living in the area are unemployed and live below the poverty datum line. These people are largely dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods. Unfortunately, some of the activities people are engaged in are having adverse impacts on the resources, in particular forest resources. The main sources of livelihoods are charcoal production and subsistence farming, which are contributing greatly to the deforestation of the surrounding Nsato Forest Reserve. The CEMP is intended to set up institutional structures at national, district and community levels to address the problem of deforestation and the related poverty levels. This is under the premise that this situation can be improved with good management and community involvement. The study reviewed literature on the concept of CBNRM with particular reference to co-management as one form of a participatory approach with shared responsibility on the management of natural resources between government and local communities. The significance of community involvement in the use and management of forest resources is highlighted. The factors necessary for the effective implementation of joint management programmes are also highlighted and their importance in achieving conservation, community development and good governance. A case study was reviewed to show the importance of these indicators to the successful implementation of such participatory programmes. A list of indicators was compiled as the basis for the assessment of the implementation of the CEMP. A review of government documents provided background information on the establishment of the CEMP, the need for its implementation in Luansobe and the structures put in place at national, district and community levels to implement the programme. These data were supplemented by information gathered through semi-structured interviews with purposively selected key informants and workshops with local community members. Information obtained showed that the institutional structures implementing the CEMP on the ground are different from those set out in documents and are deficient of communication links among the stakeholders, especially community members. This has had negative effects on the representativeness of decisions made regarding the implementation of the programme and accountability of leaders to community members. This has further affected the implementation of projects under the CEMP intended to improve people's livelihoods through alternative sources of income that promote the sustainable use of forest resources. / Thesis (M.Sc.)- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2004.

Societies frequently implement land use policies to regulate resource extraction or to regulate development. However, two important policy questions remain unresolved. First, how effective are land use regulations? Second, how do land use regulations affect socioeconomic conditions? Three issues complicate the evaluation of land use policies: (1) overt bias may lead to incorrect estimates of policy effects if implementation is nonrandom; (2) the policy may affect outcomes in neighboring unregulated lands; and (3) unobservable differences between regulated and unregulated lands may lead to biased assessments. Previous evaluations of land use policies fail to address these sources of bias simultaneously. In this dissertation, I develop an approach, using matching methods, which jointly accounts for these complications. I apply the approach to evaluate the effects of Costa Rica s protected areas on land use and socioeconomic outcomes between 1960 and 2000. I find that: (1) protection prevented the deforestation of only 10 percent or less of protected forests; (2) protection resulted in reforestation of only 20 percent of non-forest areas that were protected; (3) protection had little effect on land use outside protected areas, most likely because, as noted above, protected areas had only small effects on land use inside protected areas; and (4) there is little evidence that protected areas had harmful impacts on the livelihoods of local communities: on the contrary, I find that protection had small positive effects on socioeconomic outcomes. Furthermore, the methods traditionally used to conduct such evaluations are biased. In contrast to the findings above, those conventional methods overestimated the amount of avoided deforestation and erroneously implied that protection had negative impacts on the livelihoods of local communities. This dissertation contributes to policymaking by providing empirical measures of protected area effectiveness. Although annual global expenditures on protected areas are about $6.5 billion, little is known to date about the returns on these investments. This study also indicates that policymakers should give careful consideration to current proposals to compensate communities living in or around protected areas: contrary to widely held assumptions, the findings suggest that protection may not have harmful effects on socioeconomic outcomes.