Land-use changes impact the energy balance of the Earth system, and feedbacks in the Earth system can dampen or amplify this perturbation. We analyze here from satellite data the response of clouds and subsequently radiation to a change of land use for the example of deforestation in the Amazon Basin. In this region, the characteristics of different cloud types over two vegetation types (forest and crop-/grasslands) were calculated for a time period of five years by using satellite data from the instruments MODIS and CERES. The cloud types are defined according to height, optical thickness, and fraction of cloud cover. For calculating the radiative forcing caused by deforestation, the dependency of spatial and temporal averages for the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation of the top of the atmosphere on vegetation types were determined as well. The results show distinct differences in cloud cover and radiative forcing over crop-/grasslands and forests for the two vegetation regimes, implying a potentially significant positive cloud feedback to deforestation.

Landwirtschaftliche Expansion und Intensivierung treiben die Umwandlung natürlicher Ökosysteme weltweit. Bis heute ist unklar, inwieweit politische Maßnahmen negative Folgen für die Umwelt minimieren können. Die Kombination mit Szenarien-Analysen kann ein Rahmen zur Unterstützung von Planungsprozessen schaffen, um potentielle Auswirkungen von politischen Maßnahmen zu erforschen. Das Ziel dieser Dissertation war es, die Triebkräfte der Veränderung von Argentiniens Agrarlandschaften zu verstehen, potentielle zukünftige Landnutzungsveränderungen zu analysieren und den Einfluss ökonomischer und naturschutzbezogener politischer Maßnahmen auf diese zu erfassen. Im ersten Teil der Dissertation wurden die Triebkräfte landwirtschaftlichen Landnutzungswandels mittels eines Nettoertrags-Modells ermittelt. Danach wurde der Einfluss von ökonomischen und naturschutzbezogenen Maßnahmen auf zukünftige Landnutzungsveränderungen sowie auf die Konnektivität von Waldgebieten mit Hilfe von Landnutzungs-Szenarien analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass landwirtschaftliche Intensivierung von ökonomischen Maßnahmen getrieben ist, während landwirtschaftliche Expansion durch naturräumliche Eigenschaften und Zonierungsprogramme jenseits der Profitmaximierung determiniert wird. Politische Maßnahmen mögen einen geringeren Einfluss auf Landnutzungswandel haben als bisher erwartet. Die Entwicklung von Agrarland konzentriert sich auf Gebiete mit hoher Priorität für den Umweltschutz. Zonierungsprogramme wie das Argentinische Waldgesetz stellen wirkungsvolle Maßnahmen dar, um umweltschädigenden Entwicklungen vorzubeugen. Die Erkenntnisse zeigen, dass Naturschutz nicht zwingend im Konflikt mit ökonomischer Entwicklung steht, denn mittels Landschaftsplanung kann die Konnektivität von Waldgebieten auch unter gleichbleibenden Abholzungsraten bewahrt werden. Die Dissertation zeigt den Mehrwert von a-priori Evaluierungen der potentiellen Einflüsse von Maßnahmen auf Landnutzungswandel. / Agricultural expansion and intensification drive the conversion of natural areas worldwide. Yet, it is not clear where and how much production would need to expand and intensify to meet future demands and how policies may help minimizing environmental trade-offs. Particularly the latter requires an understanding of the underlying forces that drive agricultural land-use changes. This offers a framework for planners and decision makers to explore potential impacts from policies, especially in very dynamic regions. Argentina, where agricultural expansion and intensification result in dramatic conversions of natural areas, is a good example of a dynamic human-environment system. The goal of this thesis was to understand the drivers of agricultural land-use change and to explore future trajectories of land-use change, and how economic and conservation policies may impact them. This thesis examines drivers of agricultural land-use changes using a net returns model of agricultural production. Then, it evaluates the effects of economic and conservation policies on future land-use changes and on the connectivity of forests by developing scenarios of future land-use change. Results highlight that agricultural intensification in Argentina is driven by economic interventions, whereas agricultural expansion primarily responds to environmental characteristics and zonation programs. Economic policies may have less power in governing land use changes than previously thought, as results suggest that there are other factors, than profit maximization, influencing land conversions. Future agricultural development would occur in priority areas for conservation in Argentina, but zonation policies, such as the Forest Law, appear to be powerful in limiting potential environmental trade-offs. Conservation planning does not necessarily need to conflict with economic development, since under similar deforestation rates; landscape planning can preserve forest connectivity in the Chaco.

NY, Cornell Univ., Diss.--Ithaca, 2004. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich. - Enth. 3 Beitr.

Ohio, Ohio State Univ., Diss.--Columbus, 2004. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich. - Enth. 2 Beitr.

Univ., Diss.--Göteborg, 2005. / Enth. 3 Beitr.

Humboldt-Univ., Diss.--Berlin, 2007.

Land-use changes impact the energy balance of the Earth system, and feedbacks in the Earth system can dampen or amplify this perturbation. We analyze here from satellite data the response of clouds and subsequently radiation to a change of land use for the example of deforestation in the Amazon Basin. In this region, the characteristics of different cloud types over two vegetation types (forest and crop-/grasslands) were calculated for a time period of five years by using satellite data from the instruments MODIS and CERES. The cloud types are defined according to height, optical thickness, and fraction of cloud cover. For calculating the radiative forcing caused by deforestation, the dependency of spatial and temporal averages for the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave radiation of the top of the atmosphere on vegetation types were determined as well. The results show distinct differences in cloud cover and radiative forcing over crop-/grasslands and forests for the two vegetation regimes, implying a potentially significant positive cloud feedback to deforestation.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.

This publication summarizes the main results of the INCAProject during 2011/2012 and the contributions to the according INCA-Summer-School, which took place from September 19th – September 27th 2012 at the Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Institute of International Forestry and Forest Products, Professorship of Tropical Forestry in Tharandt, Germany.:AN INTERNATIONAL NETWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SMALL FARMERS IN THE TROPICAL ANDES – GLOBAL CONVENTIONS FROM A LOCAL PERSPECTIVE S. 1 1. Introduction S. 2 2. The concept of an International Network on Climate Change S. 5 3. The outlook on an endogenous approach S. 9 4. References S. 12 ADAPTATION MEASURES S. 17 Adaptation strategies of Andean campesinos to cope with the climatic variability – Examples from the Mantaro Valley, Peru S. 18 A socio-economic analysis of livelihood strategies in rural forest depending communities in lowland Bolivia under a changing climate S. 20 Who knows what and why? Intra-cultural knowledge variation of agroforestry plants S. 21 Traditional ecological knowledge, resilience and food security: local strategies in three communities in the Yungas ecosystem, La Paz, Bolivia S. 22 Influence of agroforestry systems in risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Peruvian Andes S. 24 Assessing adaptation to climate change: Environmental and socio-economic changes in the Andes of Bolivia S. 26 Adaptive capacity of rural communities to climate change in the bio-cultural system of the Andes, Bolivia S. 28 Socio-economic analysis of farm-forestry systems: Case studies from Achamayo and Palcazu watersheds, Peruvian Andes S. 29 MONITORING AND MODELING LAND USE CHANGE S.33 Modeling and forecast of changes in land-use and land-cover caused by climate change in the Peruvian Andes S. 34 Land-use and land-cover change in Cotapata National Park – Natural integrated management area, Bolivia S. 37 Monitoring and analyzing land-use / land-cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in the Achamayo and Shullcas region, Peruvian Andes S. 39 Climate change and land-use in the Bolivian Andes S. 41 Modeling the adaptation strategies of farmers of the Andes against climate change and the related development of land-use / land-cover S. 43 MANAGEMENT OF A CHANGING LANDSCAPE S. 45 Evaluating the strategies for the management of biophysical resources in farm communities of the Mantaro Valley, Central Andes of Peru S. 46 Participative planning, monitoring and evaluation system in bio-cultural local communities S. 50 The monitoring program in Apolobamba protected area S. 51 Progress in the diagnosis of biodiversity vulnerability to climate change in Bolivia S. 52 Sectoral program of adaptation to climate change of biodiversity and ecosystems S. 53 DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE S. 55 Possible interactions between climate projections and deforestation scenarios in Bolivia S. 56 Transport and possible climate impacts of aerosols from biomass burning from the Amazon to the Bolivian Andes S. 56 Transboundary air pollution in southern Amazon of Peru S. 57 SUMMARY S. 59 Challenges presented by climate change in the Andean region: Land-use cover change and adaptive response of small farmers S. 60 List of participants and additional information S. 62

Um das 1,5°C Ziel zu verhindern, müssen bis 2020 die globalen anthropogenen CO2 Emissionen Sektor-übergreifend ihren Spitzenwert erreichen und bis 2050 auf Netto-Null-Emissionen sinken. Der AFOLU Sektor hat einen Anteil von 23% an den globalen Treibhausgasemissionen (THGE). Neben der Möglichkeit THGE zu vermeiden, bietet die Implementierung von Klimaschutzmitigation auch Synergien um die Ernährungssicherheit, Nährstoff- und Wassereffizienz zu verbessern sowie Landdegradation umzukehren. Eine kritische Bedeutung hat die Abholzung von tropischen Waldflächen durch die mehr als ein Drittel der Emissionen im Bereich des AFOLU entsteht. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden vorliegend, mit Fokus auf die Abholzung in der tropischen Zone, die indirekten Auslöser der THGE innerhalb des AFOLU untersucht. Diese Auslöser werden zunächst auf einer globalen Skala analysiert, wobei die Rolle der Variabilität von Preisveränderungen international gehandelter Waren und weiterer sozio-ökonomischer Indikatoren auf regionale Waldumwandlungsprozesse betrachtet wird. Anschließend analysiert diese Arbeit den Aspekt des Waldverlustes im Zusammenhang mit politischer Instabilität und bewaffneten Konflikten. Zudem werden regionale Lösungen zur Mitigation in weiteren Sektoren adressiert. Insbesondere wird die Möglichkeit zur THGE-Einsparung in silvopastoralen Systemen untersucht um das Zusammenspiel zwischen intensiver Viehbewirtschaftung und der Kohlenstofffixierung besser zu verstehen. Darüber hinaus werden regionale Lösungen mit Hilfe von Basisorganisationen bzw. gemeindebasierten Initiativen (CBI) zur THGE-Einsparung in den Bereichen Energie, Nahrungsmittel, Transport und Abfall erforscht. Diese Arbeit liefert vielfältige Beiträge zum Verständnis der indirekten Auslöser von Abholzung und den damit verbundenen THGE innerhalb der tropischen Zone, sowie zur Förderung lokaler Lösungen für die sektorübergreifende THG-Minderung. / Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions from different sectors must peak in 2020 and reach net zero by 2050 in order to reach the 1.5°C target. The AFOLU sector represents 23% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition to its mitigation potential, the implementation of solutions in this sector also holds the synergistic potential of enhancing climate change adaptation, improving food security, nutrient and water efficiency, and reverting land degradation. Tropical deforestation is of particular importance within the AFOLU sector, representing over a third of its emissions. Against this backdrop, this thesis examines the underlying drivers of GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector, with a particular emphasis on tropical deforestation. These drivers are explored, firstly, at a global scale by addressing the role that changes in price of internationally-traded commodity products and other socio-economic variables exert on regional forest conversion. Secondly, this work examines the relationship between tree cover loss and a very under-researched driver of tropical deforestation, namely extreme political instability and armed conflict. Motivated by the urgency of climate change impacts, this thesis also explores local solutions for climate change mitigation across different sectors. In particular, the GHG mitigation role of silvopastoral systems, a type of agroforestry system, is examined to further understand the interplay between livestock intensification and carbon sequestration. In addition, more broad, local-scale solutions are examined across the energy, food, transport, and waste sectors by addressing the GHG mitigation potential of grassroots organizations, also known as community-based initiatives (CBIs). This thesis provides manifold contributions, not only to further understand some of the underlying drivers of deforestation and associated GHG emissions in the tropics, but also towards the advancement of local solutions for GHG mitigation across sectors.