Studies were conducted on the effects of alcohol and opioids on the development of forensically important flies. In addition different methods of degree-day calculations and development thresholds were used to determine the effects on PMI estimates. The first study determined the effects of ethanol on the development of Phormia regina in vitro. Ground pork loin was treated with a 1, 5, or 10% ethanol solution to give an equivalent Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.8 % w/v. A significant difference in the time for second instars to complete the stage was seen between the 1% treated and control. Significant differences were also found among pupal and adult weights between all treatments and the control. A significant difference was shown between growth curves of the 5% treated and control for third instar larvae using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The ethanol content of Phormia regina in migrating third instar larvae that fed on treated meat was examined using headspace-gas chromatography (HSGC). All larvae had a content of 0.01% w/v, including the control. The effects of ante-mortem injection of oxycodone in pigs were examined with respect to insect succession patterns and the development rates of Phormia regina. Pigs were given a subcutaneous injection of oxycodone hydrochloride (3 mg/kg by weight) and antemortem blood samples were collected prior to and following drug injection. Shortly after death the carcasses were placed at an open field site and allowed to decompose in a field cage. Insect samples were collected from carcasses for seven days post-mortem and the collected data were used to develop occurrence matrices. The Simple Matching Coefficient showed that successional patterns were similar between treated and untreated animals. Loin and liver from the carcasses were used as rearing media for in vitro development studies of Phormia regina. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that third instar P. regina maggots from treated loin tissue were significantly longer in length than maggots feeding on untreated loin tissue. A significant difference in time was found among larvae on loin for the time from eclosion to completion of the second instar. Significant differences were seen in the weight of adults reared on liver and loin. A chi-square for homogeneity showed that adults were biased towards males (2:1) from untreated loin tissue. A final study compared weather data sources, Accumulated Degree-Day (ADD) methods, and postmortem interval (PMI) estimations based on threshold and developmental data source. Four pigs were used for statistical comparisons. Pigs were taken to a test site and allowed to decompose in an experimental cage. Probes recorded ambient temperatures and body temperatures. Maggot sampling was completed every day for each pig. A three way factorial linear fit model was used to test for statistical differences. Significant differences were seen in the calculated ADD based on probe location and the development threshold used. The ADD calculated from local weather station locations: Kentland Farm, Moore Farm, and Blacksburg Airport were also compared. A significant difference in ADD was found in the main effects among locations (Airport 44.1 ADD, Kentland 37.5 ADD, Moore 48.6 ADD), as well as among the thresholds used (10,12.2, and 14°C). Different PMI estimations also resulted when using development data from different development studies on Phormia regina. / Ph. D.

Busseola fusca is an indigenous lepidopteran pest species in tropical Africa, attacking several grain crops. Crop loss caused by this pest can be as high as 100 % depending on conditions. Despite it being a major pest in Africa, occurring in contrasting climatic zones, only a few studies have been published on its developmental biology. The effect of temperature on the development of B. fusca was studied at five different temperature regimes namely 15, 18, 20, 26 and 30 ± 1 °C and 70 ± 30 % relative humidity (RH) with 14L: 10D photoperiod. The number of instars for B. fusca was also determined. The most favourable temperature as well as the upper threshold temperature for larval development was found to be between 26 and 30 °C. Total development period was 152.6 to 52.6 days, respectively, at 15 °C, and 26 - 30 °C. The thermal constants for B. fusca was 99.50, 536.48, 246.25 and 893.66 °D and lower temperature threshold was 10.36, 8.14, 8.99 and 8.84 °C, for completion of the egg, larval, pupal, and egg-to-adult stages, respectively. The number of larval instars was determined by using head capsule widths that ranged from 0.31 - 2.68 mm. Clear distinctions of head capsule widths could be made from instar 1 to 3, yet overlapping occurred from instar 4 to 6. No distinction could be made between instars 7 and 8 in terms of head capsule width. All successive instars, except for instar eight, increased in size according to Dyar’s ratio. The effect of temperature on reproduction of B. fusca was studied at 15, 20, 26 and 30 ± 1 °C, 70 ± 30 % RH with 14L: 10D photoperiod. Oviposition occurred at all the temperatures evaluated, but no fertility was recorded at 30 °C. The total number of eggs laid by B. fusca females was 300 - 400 eggs and the optimum temperature for oviposition and fertility was determined to be between 20 and 26 °C. Results from this study on the thermal constants and lower and upper threshold temperatures of B. fusca can be used to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution and population growth of this pest. / MSc (Environmental Sciences), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Busseola fusca is an indigenous lepidopteran pest species in tropical Africa, attacking several grain crops. Crop loss caused by this pest can be as high as 100 % depending on conditions. Despite it being a major pest in Africa, occurring in contrasting climatic zones, only a few studies have been published on its developmental biology. The effect of temperature on the development of B. fusca was studied at five different temperature regimes namely 15, 18, 20, 26 and 30 ± 1 °C and 70 ± 30 % relative humidity (RH) with 14L: 10D photoperiod. The number of instars for B. fusca was also determined. The most favourable temperature as well as the upper threshold temperature for larval development was found to be between 26 and 30 °C. Total development period was 152.6 to 52.6 days, respectively, at 15 °C, and 26 - 30 °C. The thermal constants for B. fusca was 99.50, 536.48, 246.25 and 893.66 °D and lower temperature threshold was 10.36, 8.14, 8.99 and 8.84 °C, for completion of the egg, larval, pupal, and egg-to-adult stages, respectively. The number of larval instars was determined by using head capsule widths that ranged from 0.31 - 2.68 mm. Clear distinctions of head capsule widths could be made from instar 1 to 3, yet overlapping occurred from instar 4 to 6. No distinction could be made between instars 7 and 8 in terms of head capsule width. All successive instars, except for instar eight, increased in size according to Dyar’s ratio. The effect of temperature on reproduction of B. fusca was studied at 15, 20, 26 and 30 ± 1 °C, 70 ± 30 % RH with 14L: 10D photoperiod. Oviposition occurred at all the temperatures evaluated, but no fertility was recorded at 30 °C. The total number of eggs laid by B. fusca females was 300 - 400 eggs and the optimum temperature for oviposition and fertility was determined to be between 20 and 26 °C. Results from this study on the thermal constants and lower and upper threshold temperatures of B. fusca can be used to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution and population growth of this pest. / MSc (Environmental Sciences), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:24:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-07-05Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:31:24Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 isler_pr_me_botfca.pdf: 418245 bytes, checksum: 17cd225e9fb840990eb59cc92588bcb5 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O Brasil é um grande produtor agrícola. Os dados do Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola (LSPA), divulgados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), mostram uma previsão de 158,7 milhões de toneladas para a safra brasileira em 2011, um volume 6% maior que o recorde de 149,7 milhões de toneladas colhidas em 2010. Nos últimos anos a produção tem crescido e a área apta para plantio ainda não foi totalmente utilizada e estima-se que está sendo usada metade da área adequada para a agricultura. Esta grande produção se deve, em grande parte, ao clima do país, pois apesar das variações atuais de temperatura, o Brasil ainda possui um clima adequado para o cultivo de um grande número de espécies. Outro fator que tem sido relevante para o crescimento da agricultura é a evolução na forma de produção, pois a utilização de tecnologia de ponta e de novas variedades tem participação fundamental no desenvolvimento agrário. Mas, as grandes dimensões do país, a rapidez no desenvolvimento e as intensas modificações climáticas, têm trazido grandes problemas técnicos, econômicos e administrativos. Assim, os gestores deste setor têm buscado o auxílio de técnicas matemáticas e computacionais na obtenção de estimativas e nas tomadas de decisões. A modelagem matemática pode ser utilizada como ferramenta para auxiliar a melhoria na precisão e conseqüentemente na rentabilidade agrícola. Este trabalho propõe o uso de técnicas para modelagem matemática da temperatura diária, visando determinar equações matemáticas que descrevam as temperaturas diárias de um modo satisfatório, de tal forma que as curvas descritas pelas equações, auxiliem no cálculo de Graus Dia, que é uma importante medida na área de produção agrícola. Uma aplicação deste procedimento é feito para a cultura da cana de açúcar / Brazil is a large agricultural producer. The data in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), show a forecast of 158.7 million tonnes for the brazilian harvest in 2011, a volume 6% higher than the record of 149.7 million tons harvested in 2010. In recent years the production has grown and the area suitable for planting has not yet been fully used and it is estimated that is being used half the area suitable for agriculture. This large production is, in large part, to the climate of the country, because in spite of the variations of current temperature, Brazil still has a suitable climate for the cultivation of a large number of species. Another factor that has been important for the growth of agriculture is the evolution in the form of production, because the use of high technology and new varieties are also fundamental in agricultural development. But, the big dimensions of the country, the speed in the development and the intense climate changes, has brought a great many technical problems, economic and administrative. Thus, the managers of this sector has sought the aid of mathematical techniques and computational to obtain estimates and in making decisions. The mathematical modeling can be used as a tool to help the improvement in accuracy and consequently in agricultural profitability. This paper proposes the use of techniques for mathematical modeling of daily temperatures, in order to determine how mathematical equations to describe the daily temperatures in a satisfactory manner, so that the curves as described by the equations, help in the calculation of Degree-Day, which is a significant extent in the area of agricultural production. An application of this procedure is done for the culture of sugar cane

In U.S. homes, 22 percent and 6 percent of the consumption of electricity is devoted to satisfy cooling and heating demands, respectively. A warming climate alters these consumption patterns by increasing the demand for cooling and reducing the demand for heating. This dissertation uses econometric techniques to examine the effect of climate change on the U.S. power industry through the study of the responsiveness of electricity demand to changes in temperature, and the impact of a climate-induced demand on electricity price and expenditures. In the second chapter a fixed-effects model and a cointegration model at the state level are used to investigate the determinants of residential, commercial and industrial electricity consumption for the 48 contiguous states. The results indicate substantial geographical heterogeneity in the response of demand to cooling and heating degree days, with the Midwest showing the greatest sensitivity. Residential consumers are impacted the most; on average, they experience a 13-18 percent increase in expenditures. In the third chapter the standard method of modeling electricity consumption is extended by the analysis of a wide range of set points above and below 65 F, and by including wet bulb temperatures. The statistical results for Massachusetts validate the use of 65 F for the residential sector, but demonstrate that a set point of 55 F and wet bulb temperature best characterizes the commercial sector. Using the models generated with these set points, climate change is projected to raise residential and commercial demand by 2.6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. In the fourth chapter, previous analyses on climate-induced expenditures are improved by accounting for the dual impact that climate change has on the electric power sector: an increase in both demand and price. A projected 2.6 C rise in temperature by 2070 in Massachusetts increases electricity prices by 11 to 18 percent. This increase in price, together with the increase in demand estimated in chapter three, translates into a 5.8 percent rise in expenditures for an average household. The results clearly demonstrate that climate-driven change in electricity price is the main determinant of the expected change in expenditures for electricity by households in the state.

Thesis deals with weather derivatives and their position within other financial instruments. It is divided into five main parts. The aim of the first part is to describe the basic mechanism and hallmarks of derivatives as a part of financial market. Also a brief history of weather derivatives is charted. The second chapter is focused on risk and fundamental risk factors and approaches. The weather risk management is presented. The third part discuses weather risk as special kind of risk. This part analyzes the impact of weather on the economy. The differences between weather derivatives and insurance are highlighted. The fourth chapter presents the weather derivatives from the users' points of view; it describes weather derivatives' structure and usage, main underlying indices and also looks on the pricing issues. In the final part the current situation and the possible future evolution of weather derivatives is presented. This part also includes information about the main organizations dealing with either weather management or derivatives.

Two measures of air temperature trends across southern Yukon and northern British Columbia were modelled based on measurements from 83 monitoring sites across seven areas, operating for up to 14 years. Both mean monthly air temperature (MMAT) and freezing and thawing degree days (FDD and TDD, respectively) were modelled across this area (59 °N to 64.5 °N) at elevations ranging from 330-1480 m asl. Lapse rates in this region show inversions in the winter months (November - March) varying in inversion strength and length in relation to degree of continentality. The spatial and elevation range of these sites allowed for regional lapse rate modelling at the monthly scale for MMAT and at the annual scale for FDD and TDD. Lapse rates below treeline were found to be correlated (p < 0.1) with degree of continentality in the colder months (November - April) and August. In these months, lapse rates were modelled using kriging trend surfaces. In months where degree of continentality was not found to have a significant impact on lapse rates (p > 0.1) (May - October, excluding August), an average lapse rate calculated from the seven study regions was used across the study region. A combination of lapse rate trend surfaces, elevation, and temperatures at sea level were used to model MMAT and F/TDD below treeline. A treeline trend surface was created using a 4th order polynomial, allowing for temperatures at treeline to be determined. MMAT and F/TDD above treeline were calculated using a constant lapse rate of -6 °C/km, elevation, and temperature at treeline. The above and below treeline models were combined to create continuous models of MMAT and F/TDD. Modelled MMAT showed a high degree of homogeneity across the study region in warmer months. Inversions in lapse rates are evident in the colder months, especially December through February, when colder temperatures are easily identified in valley bottoms, increasing to treeline, and decreasing above treeline. Modelled MMAT values were validated using 20 sites across the study region, using both Environment and Climate Change Canada and University of Ottawa sites. The RMSE between modelled and observed MMAT was highest in January (4.4 °C) and lowest in June (0.7 °C). Sites below treeline showed a stronger relationship between modelled and observed values than sites above treeline. Edge effects of the model were evident in the northeast of the study region as well as in the ice fields in the southwest along the Alaska border. The new MMAT maps can be used to help understand species range change, underlying permafrost conditions, and climate patterns over time. FDD values were found to be highly influenced by both degree of continentality as well as latitude, whereas TDD values were mainly dependent on elevation, with degree of continentality and latitude being lesser influences. FDD and TDD were validated using the same 20 sites across the study region, with FDD showing a larger RMSE (368 degree days) between modelled and observed values than TDD (150 degree days). TDD modelling performed better on average, with a lower average absolute difference (254 degree days) between modelled and observed values at the validation sites than FDD modelling (947 degree days). The models of FDD and TDD represent a component of temperature at top of permafrost (TTOP) modelling for future studies. Two mean annual air temperature (MAAT) maps were created, one calculated from the MMAT models, and the other from the F/TDD models. Most of the study region showed negative MAAT, mainly between -6 °C and 0 °C for both methods. The average MAAT calculated from FDD and TDD values was -2.4 ºC, whereas the average MAAT calculated from MMAT values was -2.8 ºC. Models of MAAT were found to be slightly warmer than in previous studies, potentially indicating warming temperature trends.

The vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus (Signoret) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae) is a pest with significant economic impact on the grape growing industry in South Africa and other parts of the world. With the isolation and synthesizing of the vine mealybug sex pheromone in 2001, new control options for the integrated management of the vine mealybug have been created. The status of sex pheromone monitoring as a tool in the integrated management of the vine mealybug has been evaluated from different perspectives. A significant quantitative difference in male vine mealybug trap catch numbers has been observed between wine and table grape vineyards and results indicated that there were differences in the susceptibility of grape cultivars to vine mealybug. Currently, the delta trap design is the accepted trap design for vine mealybug monitoring. No studies have yet been conducted to determine the optimum trap parameters like size or design. Population pressure may have an influence on the qualitative efficiency of various trap designs. The basis for degree-day forecasting models has been established adequately. However, refinements need to be done and the incorporation of factors such as humidity and regionality also need to be considered. Daily maximum temperatures fluctuating around the upper developmental threshold temperature for prolonged periods of time seemed to suppress population numbers. Different vineyard management practices exist for wine and table grape production. While an action threshold of 65 vine mealybug males per trap per two-week period seems an acceptable threshold for table grape production, it may not be appropriate for wine grape (or raisin grape) production. Using sex pheromone traps for population monitoring is a valid technique in the arsenal of management tactics against the vine mealybug. However, refinements and validation of research results must be done further to build credibility into the monitoring system. / Thesis (M. Environmental Science)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.

A produção de caqui no estado de São Paulo vem aumentando, sendo o seu cultivo uma boa alternativa para a diversificação de plantas frutíferas pelos produtores. O conhecimento sobre a fenologia e fixação de frutos das principais cultivares de caquizeiros em clima subtropical é de grande importância para o desenvolvimento de práticas culturais que visam uma boa produção, uma vez que em clima temperado a produção é instável pelas altas quedas fisiológicas de flores e frutos. Para isso avaliou-se o acúmulo de graus-dia em diferentes fases fenológicas das principais cultivares plantadas em São Paulo, em clima Cwa, e o efeito da aplicação de ácido giberélico na fixação dos frutos. Para atingir o ponto de colheita, a cultivar Fuyu necessita, após a poda, um acúmulo de 3650 graus-dia, Giombo e Rama-Forte 4559 graus-dia e Taubaté 4280 graus-dia. A queda fisiológica de frutos das quatro cultivares ocorre em até três meses após a antese, com o acúmulo médio de 2074 graus-dia. No período de queda fisiológica, para as quatro cultivares, há dois picos acentuados de abscisão de frutos, o primeiro após a queda de pétalas, com 298 graus-dia e o segundo 50 dias após a antese, com 913 graus-dia. A aplicação exógena de ácido giberélico incrementa a fixação de frutos de caqui nas cultivares Fuyu, Giombo, Rama-Forte e Taubaté, quando há ensacamento de flores. Para as cultivares Fuyu, Giombo e Rama-Forte a aplicação de 100 mg L-1 de ácido giberélico na florada, aumenta a fixação dos frutos em mais de 20%. Para a cultivar Taubaté a aplicação de 300 mg L-1 de ácido giberélico incrementa a fixação em mais de 30%. / The production of persimmon in the Brazilian state of São Paulo is increasing, as its cultivation is a good alternative for the diversification of fruit plants for farmers. The knowledge about the phenology and fruit set of the main persimmon cultivars in subtropical climates is of great importance to the development of agricultural practices aiming for a good production, as in temperate climates the production is instable due to the large physiological flower and fruit drop. Therefore, the accumulation of degree-days in different phenological phases of the main cultivars planted in São Paulo state, in a Cwa climate, was evaluated, as well as the effect of applying gibberellic acid on the fruit set. To reach the point of harvest, the cultivar Fuyu requires 3650 degree-days after pruning, Giombo and Rama-Forte 4559 degree-days and Taubaté 4280 degree-days. The phenological fruit drop of the four cultivars occurs up to three months after the anthesis, with a mean of 2074 degree-days. In the period of physiological fruit drop of the four cultivars, there are two accentuated peaks of fruit abscission, the first after the drop of petals, with 298 degree-days and the second 50 days after the anthesis, with 913 degree-days. The exogenous application of gibberellic acid increases the fruit set of the persimmons for the cultivars Fuyu, Giombo, Rama-Forte and Taubaté, with flowers being bagged. For the cultivars Fuyu, Giombo and Rama-Forte the application of 100 mg L-1 of gibberellic acid during blooming, increases the fruit set by more than 20%. For the cultivar Taubaté the application of 300 mg L-1 of gibberellic acid increases the fruit set by more than 30%.

A cultura da videira \'Niagara Rosada\' apresenta grande importância em diferentes regiões produtoras, principalmente no estado de São Paulo. Para a produção dessa uva é fundamental a utilização da técnica cultural da poda, que pode ocorrer em diferentes épocas. Dessa forma o presente estudo teve como objetivo comparar o desenvolvimento da videira \'Niagara Rosada\' podada em diferentes épocas mediante a análise de características como o comprimento dos ramos, velocidade média de crescimento de ramos, duração em dias de cada período do ciclo produtivo e soma térmica em graus-dia (GD). As épocas de poda adotadas foram de inverno, com realização em 04/08/2010 e de verão, com realização em 28/01/2011. O delineamento estatístico utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso com 7 e 8 unidades experimentais cada, totalizando 30 unidades. Cada bloco foi uma planta e a unidade experimental foi um ramo. Para a análise de médias foi empregado o teste de Tukey para comparar os tratamentos de poda de inverno e poda de verão. As variáveis foram comparadas em relação aos períodos do ciclo produtivos: poda à colheita, brotação à colheita, poda à brotação, brotação ao florescimento, florescimento ao início da maturação dos frutos e início da maturação dos frutos à colheita. Houve resultado significativo em todas as comparações entre os tratamentos, de forma que se confirmou que em relação ao tamanho dos ramos, a poda de inverno apresentou ramos mais compridos do que a poda de verão. Em relação à velocidade média de crescimento dos ramos, esta foi superior na poda de inverno do que o observado na poda de verão. Já na duração do ciclo produtivo, houve maior duração no início do ciclo na poda de inverno e maior duração no final do ciclo na poda de verão, de forma que no ciclo como um todo a duração foi praticamente a mesma. Finalmente para a soma térmica, a poda de inverno apresentou valores superiores em todo o ciclo, excetuando-se o período do florescimento ao início da maturação dos frutos, em que a poda de verão apresentou valores superiores. / The importance of the \'Niagara Rosada\" crop is major in several regions, especially in the state of São Paulo. In the production of this vine tree the use of pruning is essential, which can occur in several seasons. With that in mind, this study has as objective to compare \'Niagara Rosada\' vine tree\'s development under different pruning seasons by analyzing characteristics as the length of the branch, average branch growth velocity, duration in days of the production cycle and degreedays (DD). The adopted pruning seasons were the winter pruning, being done in 08/04/2010, and the summer pruning, being done 01/28/2011. As experimental plot were use 4 plants, with 7 or 8 branches each, with the total of 30 branches. To analyze the results was used the Tukey test, comparing the treatments in the different periods of the production cycle (Pruning to Harvest, Sprout to Harvest, Pruning to Sprout, Sprout to Flowering, Flowering to Early Ripening and Early Ripening to Harvest. There was a significant difference between the treatments in all the comparisons. For the length of the branches, the winter pruning showed bigger branches in all the periods than the length of the summer pruning. As for the average branch velocity, it was superior in all the periods in the winter pruning. When considering the duration in days of the periods of the production cycle there was, in the beginning, a longer duration in the winter pruning an a longer duration in the end of the cycle for the summer pruning. When considering the total duration both treatments presented almost the same number. Finally, for the degree-days, the winter pruning showed a bigger rate in all the cycle, except in the Flowering to Early Ripening period, in which the summer pruning showed a bigger rate.