We study the benefits of resource flexibility, considering two different flexibility structures. First, we want to understand the impact of the firm's pricing strategy on its resource investment decision, considering a partially flexible resource. Secondly, we study the benefits of a flexible resource strategic approach, considering a resource flexibility structure that has not been studied in the previous literature. First, we study the capacity investment decision faced by a firm that offers two products/services and that is a price-setter for both products/services. The products offered by the firm are of varying levels (complexities), such that the resources that can be used to produce the higher level product can also be used to produce the lower level one. Although the firm needs to make its capacity investment decision under high demand uncertainty, it can utilize this limited (downward) resource flexibility, in addition to pricing, to more effectively match its supply with demand. Sample applications include a service company, whose technicians are of different capabilities, such that a higher level technician can perform all tasks performed by a lower level technician; a firm that owns a main plant, satisfying both end-product and intermediate-product demand, and a subsidiary, satisfying the intermediate-product demand only. We formulate this decision problem as a two-stage stochastic programming problem with recourse, and characterize the structural properties of the firm's optimal resource investment strategy when resource flexibility and pricing flexibility are considered in the investment decision. We show that the firm's optimal resource investment strategy follows a threshold policy. This structure allows us to understand the impact of coordinated decision-making, when the resource flexibility is taken into account in the investment decision, on the firm's optimal investment strategy, and establish the conditions under which the firm invests in the flexible resource. We also study the impact of demand correlation on the firm's optimal resource investment strategy, and show that it may be optimal for the firm to invest in both flexible and dedicated resources when product demand patterns are perfectly positively correlated. Our results offer managerial principles and insights on the firm's optimal resource investment strategy as well as extend the newsvendor problem with pricing, by allowing for multiple resources (suppliers), multiple products, and resource pooling. Secondly, we study the benefits of a delayed decision making strategy under demand uncertainty, considering a system that satisfies two demand streams with two capacitated and flexible resources. Resource flexibility allows the firm to delay its resource allocation decision to a time when partial information on demands is obtained and demand uncertainty is reduced. We characterize the structure of the firm's optimal delayed resource allocation strategy. This characterization allows us to study how the revenue benefits of the delayed resource allocation strategy depend on demand and capacity parameters, and the length of the selling season. Our study shows that the revenue benefits of this strategy can be significant, especially when demand rates of the different types are close, while resource capacities are much different. Based on our analysis, we provide guidelines on the utilization of such strategies. Finally, we incorporate the uncertainty in demand parameters into our models and study the effectiveness of several delayed capacity allocation mechanisms that utilize the resource flexibility. In particular, we consider that demand forecasts are uncertain at the start of the selling season and are updated using a Bayesian framework as early demand figures are observed. We propose several heuristic capacity allocation policies that are easy to implement as well as a heuristic procedure that relies on a stochastic dynamic programming formulation and perform a numerical study. Our study determines the conditions under which each policy is effective. / Ph. D.

A tendência de aumento de mix e redução do ciclo de vida de produtos está se ampliando em diversos setores da economia e a imprevisibilidade de demanda resultante gera novos desafios para o gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos que deve buscar maximizar a disponibilidade dos produtos ao mesmo tempo em que a sobra é minimizada. Apesar dessa tendência ainda não estar consolidada, a relevância de setores que já enfrentam esses desafios (principalmente as indústrias relacionados à moda e à tecnologia) e a importância da adequação dos processos da empresa a esse novo ambiente para a lucratividade do negócio constituem os motivadores dessa pesquisa. Dessa forma, o principal objetivo deste trabalho é identificar quais práticas de melhoria de manufatura podem ser utilizadas para lidar com os desafios inerentes a esse ambiente. Além disso, propõe-se caracterizar tais desafios formalmente, explicitando mais detalhadamente a relação entre eles, às práticas de manufatura e alguns resultados operacionais e financeiros das empresas. Para isso são utilizadas a revisão bibliográfica e a pesquisa-ação em uma indústria de vestuário de moda como os dois principais procedimentos técnicos de pesquisa. Os resultados positivos obtidos permitem concluir que práticas de melhoria provenientes da manufatura enxuta e da manufatura ágil podem ser utilizadas em conjunto para adequar o processo de planejamento e produção aos desafios desse novo cenário, permitindo a obtenção de melhores resultados operacionais. / The trend of increased mix and shorter product life cycle is expanding in several sectors of the economy and the resulting demand unpredictability generates new challenges for the supply chain management, which needs to find new ways to maximize products availability and minimize inventory obsolescence. Despite this trend is not yet consolidated, the relevance of sectors already facing this challenges (especially industries related to fashion and technology) and the importance of processes adaptation to this new environment for business profitability are the motivators of this research. Thus, the main objective of this work is to identify which manufacturing improvement techniques can be used to deal with this environment challenges. Furthermore, it is proposed to formally characterize those challenges, explaining in more detail the relationship between them, the manufacturing practices and some operational and financial results of companies. To achieve this goal, literature review and action research in a fashion apparel industry are used as the two main research procedures. The positive results obtained indicate that improvement practices from lean manufacturing and agile manufacturing can be used together to tailor production and the planning process to this new scenario, allowing for better operational results.

A tendência de aumento de mix e redução do ciclo de vida de produtos está se ampliando em diversos setores da economia e a imprevisibilidade de demanda resultante gera novos desafios para o gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos que deve buscar maximizar a disponibilidade dos produtos ao mesmo tempo em que a sobra é minimizada. Apesar dessa tendência ainda não estar consolidada, a relevância de setores que já enfrentam esses desafios (principalmente as indústrias relacionados à moda e à tecnologia) e a importância da adequação dos processos da empresa a esse novo ambiente para a lucratividade do negócio constituem os motivadores dessa pesquisa. Dessa forma, o principal objetivo deste trabalho é identificar quais práticas de melhoria de manufatura podem ser utilizadas para lidar com os desafios inerentes a esse ambiente. Além disso, propõe-se caracterizar tais desafios formalmente, explicitando mais detalhadamente a relação entre eles, às práticas de manufatura e alguns resultados operacionais e financeiros das empresas. Para isso são utilizadas a revisão bibliográfica e a pesquisa-ação em uma indústria de vestuário de moda como os dois principais procedimentos técnicos de pesquisa. Os resultados positivos obtidos permitem concluir que práticas de melhoria provenientes da manufatura enxuta e da manufatura ágil podem ser utilizadas em conjunto para adequar o processo de planejamento e produção aos desafios desse novo cenário, permitindo a obtenção de melhores resultados operacionais. / The trend of increased mix and shorter product life cycle is expanding in several sectors of the economy and the resulting demand unpredictability generates new challenges for the supply chain management, which needs to find new ways to maximize products availability and minimize inventory obsolescence. Despite this trend is not yet consolidated, the relevance of sectors already facing this challenges (especially industries related to fashion and technology) and the importance of processes adaptation to this new environment for business profitability are the motivators of this research. Thus, the main objective of this work is to identify which manufacturing improvement techniques can be used to deal with this environment challenges. Furthermore, it is proposed to formally characterize those challenges, explaining in more detail the relationship between them, the manufacturing practices and some operational and financial results of companies. To achieve this goal, literature review and action research in a fashion apparel industry are used as the two main research procedures. The positive results obtained indicate that improvement practices from lean manufacturing and agile manufacturing can be used together to tailor production and the planning process to this new scenario, allowing for better operational results.

The paper is concerned with the impact of market research prior to integration, on the structures of noncompetitive industries in integrated economy. The analysis focuses on separated, single commodity, monopolistic markets with stochastic demand. Monopolistic firms are considered in dynamic multiperiod model, where intertemporal links are determined by expenditures on market research in a present period and benefits from this activity (i.e., smaller variance of the prediction error) in the future. Assuming that each firm maximizes its total discounted expected utility from profit in indefinite time, we show that the optimal market research strategy is stationary and depends on market size. Consequently, in the period following integration firms operating prior to integration in small markets (such as Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary or Estonia) are expected to have much less information about the integrated market than their competitors operating before integration on European market. This informational asymmetry may affect the structure of the industry in integrated economy. In the extreme case, the firm operating before integration in the small market can be ruled out from the integrated market. (authors' abstract)

The paper provides an explanation of the mechanisms underlying trade roots of the contagion effects emanating from the recent turmoils. It is argued that under demand uncertainty risk averse behavior of firms provides a basis for international trade. The paper shows by means of a simple two-country model that risk averse firms operating in perfectly competitive markets with uncertainty of demand tend to diversify markets what gives a basis for international trade in identical commodities even between identical countries. It is shown that such trade may be welfare improving despite efficiency losses due to cross-hauling and transportation costs. The analysis reveals that change of the expectations concerning market conditions caused by the turmoil in the neighbor country (i.e., shift in the perception of market conditions) may lead to macroeconomic destabilization (increase in price level and unemployment, worsening of terms of trade, and deterioration of trade balance). / Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

近年來，化妝品零售業之發展已趨成熟，且邁入「消費者導向」的時代。在屈臣氏、康是美等傳統藥妝店之銷售模式下，業者必須提早預測未來市場的流行趨勢及需求量，提早生產，並鋪貨至全台各門市，導致其需要花時間去反應市場需求變動，使供應鏈內的存貨量相當高，支付大量無謂的存貨成本，最終便轉嫁予消費者。而近年新崛起的化妝品零售業者，網羅各國的美妝品，隨時掌握最新流行資訊、能夠精準抓住趨勢、快速回應消費者需求，減少為反應市場需求變動所備之存貨，同時還能維持低價競爭。 在外部環境不斷變化的消費市場裡，此種快速回應能力被視為能夠提升競爭優勢的利器，尤其是在化妝品市場裡，因其汰換快及生命週期短的產業特性，必須更強調「速度」的要求。 故，本研究採用個案研究法，並挑選最初此開創全新商業模式的企業之一-小三美日作為研究對象，探討為什麼會有需求不確定性，以及化妝品零售業者在面對需求不確定性時如何因應，及其快速回應市場需求之商業模式。 經過深入探討個案公司之快速回應策略以及商業模式，歸納本研究之發現如下： 1. 以顧客為中心之商業模式 2. 快速回應策略 3. 承擔風險換取彈性 本研究之貢獻在於建立一快速回應需求不確定性之改善原則和因應策略之架構，以期瞭解如何透過快速回應消除供應鏈上沒有加值的活動，從而提升消費者價值，創造共同利益，並為未來其他業者提供發展方向。然而，本研究僅就個案公司之主要商業流程活動以及如何因應需求不確定性進行探討，未針對執行後之效果及績效衡量指標進行後續研究。此外，由於本研究為單一個案研究，若能增加研究樣本，或可歸納出快速回應市場需求之準則，作為不同產業中的企業之參考案例。 / In recent years, the development of cosmetics retailing has matured and entered the "consumer-oriented" era. Under the business model of Watsons, Cosmed and other traditional cosmetics channels, the companies must predict the future trends and the market demands before producing and distributing products to various channels in Taiwan. Under this model, the companies need time to respond to the changes in demand, and companies are therefore faced with considerably with high level of stock. Not only does this generates a lot of unnecessary inventory costs, but this costs will also be passed on to consumers, which is reflected on the retail price. On the other hand, the new rising cosmetics retailers collect products from all over the world; these companies are able to accurately grasp the trend and quickly respond to various of demands of consumers. As a result, the companies do not have to keep high level of stock, this eliminates non value-added activities and unnecessary expenses, which also allows them to maintain their competitiveness in price. In the constantly changing consumer market, the ability to respond quickly can be seen as a competitive advantage. Especially in the cosmetics market with short product life cycle, the cosmetics retailer must place emphasis on speed. This research is based on case study method, and selects one of the first companies that developed the new business model as the research subject: 小三美日. The research is to discuss, the causes of demand uncertainty, how do the cosmetics retailers respond when facing demand uncertainty, and the business model of quick response to market demand. With in-depth case study of the quick response strategies and business model of 小三美日, the findings are as below: 1. The customer-oriented business model 2. Quick response strategies 3. Risk taking for flexibility The academic contribution of this study is to create the structure of improving principles and strategies of quick response to demand uncertainty, understand how to eliminate non value-added supply chain activities through the strategies of quick response, thus increasing customer value, creating common interests accordingly, and providing guidance for the future development of other retail industries. However, this research discusses the business model and quick response strategies while ignoring the performance evaluation. Meanwhile, since this is a single case study, the future research could increase the research subjects to construct the guidelines of quick response to market demand as a reference to companies in different industries.

本文將探討當一販售耐久財的獨佔廠商面臨到商品產量限制以及市場上存在著個人需求不確定性時的最適訂價模式。此外本文也透過分析不同時期消費者所面臨的每期使用價格變化來說明當消費者存在個人需求不確定性時，廠商於兩期使用價格的設定會出現異於Coasian耐久財模型的兩期使用價格設定。當商品效用在第二期出現壞結果時低於一定標準時，廠商兩期使用價格訂價模式將出現第一期使用價格下降而第二期使用價格反而上升的現象，甚至可能出現第二期使用價格高於第一期使用價格的現象。而這與Coasian耐久財模型所呈現的兩期使用價格訂價模式是大不相同。 我們發現當廠商採取非價格承諾的訂價策略且廠商產能處於一定的數值時，廠商採取讓消費者面臨限量風險的訂價策略可獲得較Coasian耐久財模型更高的利潤。由此可見產能限制將可使廠商在採取非價格承諾的訂價策略下仍能透過讓消費者面臨限量的風險來保有獨佔力並且賺取較高利潤。 / This paper will investigate the best pricing strategy for durable goods monopolist with capacity constraint and individual demand uncertainty. We also introduce the concept of “per-period usage price” and illustrate the difference between traditional Coasian durable goods pricing strategy and ours. When the product utility turns out to be a bad outcome and its value is lower than the certain standard, first period’s per-period usage price will decrease while second period’s per-period usage price will increase simultaneously. This consequence is totally different from Coasian durable goods model. When monopolist use non-commitment pricing strategy and face capacity constraint, monopolist will set the price for exerting the risk of rationing to consumers which will help monopolist gain higher profit than Coasian durable goods model. This shows that capacity constraint will help monopolist keep monopoly power and gain higher profit.

<p dir="ltr">Employee staffing and scheduling are critical aspects of resource management in labor-intensive, customer-centric service organizations. This thesis investigates the optimal decision-making process for these critical tasks in the presence of non-stationary uncertainty, such as case-mix resident need, recommended staffing hours, and potential staffing turnover, a challenge prevalent in various domains, including healthcare and nursing home management.</p><p dir="ltr">The research begins predicting resident needs accurately. For this purpose, we present a novel Bayesian modeling approach to predict nursing home need-based resident census and staffing time. The resultant time series data of need-based resident census and staffing time are nonstationary with potential correlations between resource utilization groups. We thus propose Bayesian latent variable models with time-varying latent states to capture the dynamic patterns of resident service needs. We demonstrate the superiority of the proposed Bayesian prediction models by comparing their forecasting performance with several popular benchmark models, using historical assessment and aggregate staffing data from representative nursing homes.</p><p dir="ltr">The thesis further incorporates a rolling-horizon scheduling approach that integrates a periodically evolving Bayesian forecasting method into a series of stochastic look-ahead decision actions over multiple periods. To deal with the workforce scheduling with nonstationary demand uncertainty, we introduce a stochastic lookahead optimization framework that executes two-stage stochastic programming periodically along a rolling horizon to address the evolving non-stationary uncertainty. We obtain two-stage stochastic programming models to design effective work schedules, specifically assigning nurses to various shifts while balancing the staff workload and accommodating fluctuating resident needs.</p><p dir="ltr">We finally introduce the SNHSSO framework (stochastic nursing home staffing and scheduling optimizer), encompassing data modeling and addressing multi-period, multi-uncertainty, and multi-objective staffing and scheduling challenges. When the SNHSSO Optimizer is executed with the provided inputs, it generates recommended staffing decisions for longer planning horizons, as well as schedules and contingency plans for shorter planning horizons. These adapted decisions and adjusted parameters are archived for future reference, facilitating subsequent iterations of the process. SNHSSO optimizes caregiver assignments by taking into account probabilistic forecasts of service requirements, resident acuity, and staff turnover, all within two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programs. Our approach leverages a scenario-based rolling horizon methodology to effectively solve the SNHSSO model.</p><p dir="ltr">The empirical foundation of this work is built on case studies conducted using Minimum Data Set (MDS) data spanning five years from 2014 to 2018 in Indiana nursing homes.</p>

No description available.

Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres ayant en commun la question de la qualité des exportations dans un contexte de pays en voie de développement. La thèse s’intéresse plus particulièrement à différents aspects permettant d’améliorer le niveau de qualité des exportations. Le premier chapitre est consacré à l'impact de l'Aide au commerce (Aid for trade) sur la qualité des exportations des pays récipiendaires. Il suggère un effet positif de la politique d'aide au commerce sur la qualité des exportations. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur le rôle de vérification de la qualité joué par les intermédiaires dans le commerce international. Les résultats indiquent que seuls les intermédiaires spécialisés jouent ce rôle. Le troisième chapitre examine le lien entre l'orientation à l'exportation des entreprises et leur performance en matière d'innovation. L’analyse empirique met en évidence une réduction des investissements en R&D chez les exportateurs dont les ventes s’orientent principalement vers les exportations au détriment du marché intérieur et ce d’autant plus qu’ils font face à une incertitude élevée de la demande. Ces évolutions défavorables pourraient être surmontées néanmoins si l’entreprise a une riche expérience commerciale ou une productivité élevée. Les trois résultats principaux de cette thèse sont ainsi que l'aide au commerce ainsi que l’essor d’intermédiaires de type spécialisé contribuent à la montée en qualité des exportateurs tandis que l'incertitude de la demande extérieure tend à l’inverse à entraver l’innovation des firmes exportatrices. / This thesis is composed of three chapters that have in common the question of export quality in a developing country context. The thesis focuses on different aspects of improving the quality level of exports. The first chapter is devoted to the impact of Aid for Trade on the quality of exports from recipient countries. It suggests a positive effect of Aid for Trade policy on the quality of exports. The second chapter focuses on the quality assurance role played by intermediaries in international trade. The results indicate that only specialized intermediaries play this role. The third chapter examines the link between firms' export orientation and their innovation performance. The empirical analysis shows a reduction in R&D investment by exporters whose sales reorient towards exports to the detriment of the domestic market, especially as they face high demand uncertainty. These unfavourable developments could nevertheless be overcome if the company has a long trade experience or high productivity. The three main results of this thesis are that aid for trade and the rise of specialized intermediaries contribute to the rise in quality of exporters, while the uncertainty of external demand tends, on the other hand, to hinder innovation by exporting firms.