The purpose of this work is to provide simulation-based support for making optimal (or near-optimal) decisions in situations where decision makers are faced with imperfect information. We develop several novel techniques and algorithms for simulation-based optimization and decision support and apply them to two categories of problems: (i) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) path planning in search operations, and; (ii) optimization of business process models. Common features of these two problems for which analytical approaches are not available, are the presence of imperfect information and their inherent complexity. In the UAV path planning problem, the objective is to define the path of a UAV searching for a target on a known road network. It is assumed that the target is moving toward a goal and we have some uncertain information about the start point of the target, its velocity, and the final goal of the target. The target does not take evasive action to avoid being detected. The UAV is equipped with a sensor, which may detect the target once it is in the sensor’s scope. Nevertheless, the detection process is uncertain and the sensor is subject to both false-positive and false-negative errors. We propose three different solutions, two of which are simulation-based. The most promising solution is an on-line simulation-based method that estimates the location of the target by using a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method. During the entire mission, different UAV paths are simulated and the one is chosen that most reduces the uncertainty about the location of the target. In the optimization of the business process models, several different but related problems are addressed: (i) we define a measure of performance for a business process model based on the value added by agents (employees) to the process; (ii) we use this model for optimization of the business process models. Different types of processes are distinguished and methods for finding the optimal or near-optimal solutions are provided; (iii) we propose a model for estimating the performance of collaborative agents. This model is used to solve a class of Assignment Problems (AP), where tasks are assigned to collaborative agents; (iv) we propose a model for team activity and the performance of a team of agents. We introduce different collaboration strategies between agents and a negotiation algorithm for resolving conflicts between agents. We compare the effect of different strategies on the output of the team. Most of the studied cases are complex problems for which no analytical solution is available. Simulation methods are successfully applied to these problems. They are shown to be more general than analytical models for handling uncertainty since they usually have fewer assumptions and impose no restrictions on the probability distributions involved. Our investigation confirms that simulation is a powerful tool for providing decision-making support. Moreover, our proposed algorithms and methods in the accompanying articles contribute to providing support for making optimal and in some cases near-optimal decisions: (i) our tests of the UAV simulation-based search methods on a simulator show that the on-line simulation method has generally a high performance and detects the target in a reasonable time. The performance of this method was compared with the detection time when the UAV had the exact information about the initial location of the target, its velocity, and its path (minimum detection time). This comparison indicated that the online simulation method in many cases achieved a near-optimal performance in the studied scenario; (ii) our business process optimization framework combines simulation with the Hungarian method and finds the optimal solution for all cases where the assignment of tasks does not change the workflow of the process. For the most general cases, where the assignment of tasks may change the workflow, we propose an algorithm that finds near-optimal solutions. In this algorithm, simulation, which deals with the uncertainty in the process, is combined with the Hungarian method and hill-climbing heuristics. In the study of assigning tasks to collaborative agents we suggest a Genetic Algorithm (GA) that finds near-optimal solutions with a high degree of accuracy, stability, scalability and robustness. While investigating the effect of different agent strategies on the output of a team, we find that the output of a team is near-optimal, when agents choose a collaboration strategy that follows the principle of least effort (Zipf’s law) and use our suggested algorithm for negotiation and resolving conflicts. / QC 20111202

ABSTRACT The aim of industrial production changed from mass production at the beginning of the 20th century. Today, production flexibility determines manufacturing companies' course of action. In this sense, Volvo Group Trucks Operations is interested in meeting customer demand in their assembly lines by adjusting manpower. Thus, this investigation attempts to analyze the effect of manning on the main final assembly line for thirteen-liter heavy-duty diesel engines at Volvo Group Trucks Operations in Skövde by means of discrete-event simulation. This project presents a simulation model that simulates the assembly line. With the purpose of building the model data were required. One the one hand, qualitative data were collected to improve the knowledge in the fields related to the project topic, as well as to solve the lack of information in certain points of the project. On the other hand, simulation model programming requires quantitative data. Once the model was completed, simulation results were obtained through simulation-based optimization. This optimization process tested 50,000 different workforce scenarios to find the most efficient solutions for three different sequences. Among all results, the most interesting one for Volvo is the one which render 80% of today’s throughput with the minimum number of workers. Consequently, as a case study, a bottleneck analysis and worker performance analysis was performed for this scenario. Finally, a flexible and fully functional model that delivers the desired results was developed. These results provide a comparison among different manning scenarios considering throughput as main measurement of the main final assembly line performance. After analyzing the results, system output behavior was revealed. This behavior allows predicting optimal system output for a given number of operators.

In the last two decades, the western world witnessed a continuous rise in the health expenditure. Meanwhile, complaints from patients on excessive waiting times are also increasing. In the past, many researchers have tried to devise appointment scheduling rules to provide trade-offs between maximizing patients’ satisfaction and minimizing the costs of the health providers. For instance, this challenge appears appointment scheduling problems (ASP). Commonly used methods in ASP include analytical methods, simulation studies, and combination of simulation with heuristic approaches. Analytical methods (e.g., queuing theory and mathematical programming) face challenges of fully capturing the complexities of systems and usually make strong assumptions for tractability of problems. These methods simplify the whole system to a single-stage unit and ignore the actual system factors such as the presence of multiple stages and/or resource constraints. Simulation studies, conversely, are able to model most complexities of the actual system, but they typically lack an optimization strategy to deliver optimal appointment schedules. Also, heuristic approaches normally are based on intuitive rules and do not perform well as standalone methods. In order to reach an optimal schedule while considering complexities in actual health care systems, this thesis proposes efficient and effective methods that yield (near) optimal appointment schedules by integrating mathematical programming, a tabu search optimization algorithm and discrete event simulation. The proposed methodologies address the challenges and complexities of scheduling in real world multistage healthcare units in the presence of stochastic service durations, a mix of patient types, patients with heterogeneous service sequence, and resource constraints. Moreover, the proposed methodology is capable of finding the optimum considering simultaneously multiple performance criteria. A Pareto front (a set of optimal solutions) for the performance criteria can be obtained using the proposed methods. Healthcare management can use the Pareto front to choose the appropriate policy based on different conditions and priorities. In addition, the proposed method has been applied to two case studies of Operating Rooms departments in two major Canadian hospitals. The comparison of actual schedules and the ones yielded by the proposed method indicates that proposed method can improve the appointment scheduling in realistic clinical settings.

In the last two decades, the western world witnessed a continuous rise in the health expenditure. Meanwhile, complaints from patients on excessive waiting times are also increasing. In the past, many researchers have tried to devise appointment scheduling rules to provide trade-offs between maximizing patients’ satisfaction and minimizing the costs of the health providers. For instance, this challenge appears appointment scheduling problems (ASP). Commonly used methods in ASP include analytical methods, simulation studies, and combination of simulation with heuristic approaches. Analytical methods (e.g., queuing theory and mathematical programming) face challenges of fully capturing the complexities of systems and usually make strong assumptions for tractability of problems. These methods simplify the whole system to a single-stage unit and ignore the actual system factors such as the presence of multiple stages and/or resource constraints. Simulation studies, conversely, are able to model most complexities of the actual system, but they typically lack an optimization strategy to deliver optimal appointment schedules. Also, heuristic approaches normally are based on intuitive rules and do not perform well as standalone methods. In order to reach an optimal schedule while considering complexities in actual health care systems, this thesis proposes efficient and effective methods that yield (near) optimal appointment schedules by integrating mathematical programming, a tabu search optimization algorithm and discrete event simulation. The proposed methodologies address the challenges and complexities of scheduling in real world multistage healthcare units in the presence of stochastic service durations, a mix of patient types, patients with heterogeneous service sequence, and resource constraints. Moreover, the proposed methodology is capable of finding the optimum considering simultaneously multiple performance criteria. A Pareto front (a set of optimal solutions) for the performance criteria can be obtained using the proposed methods. Healthcare management can use the Pareto front to choose the appropriate policy based on different conditions and priorities. In addition, the proposed method has been applied to two case studies of Operating Rooms departments in two major Canadian hospitals. The comparison of actual schedules and the ones yielded by the proposed method indicates that proposed method can improve the appointment scheduling in realistic clinical settings.

Renewable energy (RE) resources are relatively unpredictable and dependent on climatic conditions. The negative effects of existing randomness in RE resources can be reduced by the integration of RE resources into what is called Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES). The design of HRES remains as a complicated problem since there is uncertainty in energy prices, demand, and RE sources. In addition, it is a multi-objective design since several conflicting objectives must be considered. In this thesis, an optimal sizing approach has been proposed to aid decision makers in sizing and performance analysis of this kind of energy supply systems. First, a straightforward methodology based on ε-constraint method is proposed for optimal sizing of HRESs containing RE power generators and two storage devices. The ε-constraint method has been applied to minimize simultaneously the total net present cost of the system, unmet load, and fuel emission. A simulation-based particle swarm optimization approach has been used to tackle the multi-objective optimization problem. In the next step, a Pareto-based search technique, named dynamic multi-objective particle swarm optimization, has been performed to improve the quality of the Pareto front (PF) approximated by the ε-constraint method. The proposed method is examined for a case study including wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, diesel generators, batteries, fuel cells, electrolyzers, and hydrogen tanks. Well-known metrics from the literature are used to evaluate the generated PF. Afterward, a multi-objective approach is presented to consider the economic, reliability and environmental issues at various renewable energy ratio values when optimizing the design of building energy supply systems. An existing commercial apartment building operating in a cold Canadian climate has been described to apply the proposed model. In this test application, the model investigates the potential use of RE resources for the building. Furthermore, the application of plug-in electric vehicles instead of gasoline car for transportation is studied. Comparing model results against two well-known reported multi-objective algorithms has also been examined. Finally, the existing uncertainties in RE and load are explicitly incorporated into the model to give more accurate and realistic results. An innovative and easy to implement stochastic multi-objective approach is introduced for optimal sizing of an HRES. / February 2016

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Le contrôle hétérarchique des systèmes de production flexibles (FMS) préconise un contrôle peu complexe et hautement réactif supporté par des entités décisionnelles locales (DEs). En dépit d'avancées prometteuses, ces architectures présentent un comportement myope car les DEs ont une visibilité informationnelle limitée sue les autres DEs, ce qui rend difficile la garantie d'une performance globale minimum. Cette thèse se concentre sur les approches permettant de réduire cette myopie. D'abord, une définition et une typologie de cette myopie dans les FMS sont proposées. Ensuite, nous proposons de traiter explicitement le comportement myope avec une architecture semi-hétérarchique. Dans celle-ci, une entité décisionnelle globale (GDE) traite différents types de décisions myopes à l'aide des différentes techniques d'optimisation basée sur la simulation (SbO). De plus, les SbO peuvent adopter plusieurs rôles, permettant de réduire le comportement myope de plusieurs façons. Il est également possible d'avoir plusieurs niveaux d'autonomie en appliquant différents modes d'interaction. Ainsi, notre approche accepte des configurations dans lesquelles certains comportements myopes sont réduits et d'autres sont acceptés. Notre approche a été instanciée pour contrôler la cellule flexible AIP- PRIMECA de l'Université de Valenciennes. Les résultats des simulations ont montré que l'architecture proposée peut réduire les comportements myopes en établissant un équilibre entre la réactivité et la performance globale. Des expérimentations réelles ont été réalisées sur la cellule AIP-PRIMECA pour des scenarios dynamiques et des résultats prometteurs ont été obtenus. / Heterarchical-based control for flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) localizes control capabilities in decisional entities (DE), resulting in highly reactive and low complex control architectures. However, these architectures present myopic behavior since DEs have limited visibility of other DEs and their behavior, making difficult to ensure certain global performance. This dissertation focuses on reducing myopic behavior. At first, a definition and a typology of myopic behavior in FMS is proposed. In this thesis, myopic behavior is dealt explicitly so global performance can be improved. Thus, we propose a semi-heterarchical architecture in which a global decisional entity (GDE) deals with different kinds of myopic decisions using simulation-based optimization (SbOs). Different optimization techniques can be used so myopic decisions can be dealt individually, favoring GDE modularity. Then, the SbOs can adopt different roles, being possible to reduce myopic behavior in different ways. More, it is also possible to grant local decisional entities with different autonomy levels by applying different interaction modes. In order to balance reactivity and global performance, our approach accepts configurations in which some myopic behaviors are reduced and others are accepted. Our approach was instantiated to control the assembly cell at Valenciennes AIPPRIMECA center. Simulation results showed that the proposed architecture reduces myopic behavior whereby it strikes a balance between reactivity and global performance. The real implementation on the assembly cell verified the effectiveness of our approach under realistic dynamic scenarios, and promising results were obtained.

Simulation-based optimization methodologies are widely applied in real world optimization problems. In developing these methodologies, beside simulation models, algorithms play a critical role. One example is an evolutionary multi objective optimization algorithm known as Reference point-based Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (R-NSGA-II), which has shown to have some promising results in this regard. Its successor, R-NSGA-II-adaptive diversity control (hereafter Adaptive Epsilon-R-NSGA-II (AE-R-NSGA-II) algorithm) is one of the latest proposed extensions of the R-NSGA-II algorithm and in the early stages of its development. So far, little research exists on its applicability and usefulness, especially in real world optimization problems. This thesis evaluates behavior and performance of AE-R-NSGA-II, and to the best of our knowledge is one of its kind. To this aim, we have investigated the algorithm in two experiments, using two benchmark functions, 10 performance measures, and a behavioral characteristics analysis method. The experiments are designed to (i) assess behavior and performance of AE-R-NSGA-II, (ii) and facilitate efficient use of the algorithm in real world optimization problems. This is achieved through the algorithm parameter configuration (parametric study) according to the problem characteristics. The behavior and performance of the algorithm in terms of diversity of the solutions obtained, and their convergence to the optimal Pareto front is studied in the first experiment through manipulating a parameter of the algorithm referred to as Adaptive epsilon coefficient value (C), and in the second experiment through manipulating the Reference point (R) according to the distance between the reference point and the global Pareto front. Therefore, as one contribution of this study two new diversity performance measures (called Modified spread, and Population diversity), and the behavioral characteristics analysis method called R-NSGA-II adaptive epsilon value have been introduced and applied. They can be modified and applied for the evaluation of any reference point based algorithm such as the AE-R-NSGA-II. Additionally, this project contributed to improving the Benchmark software, for instance by identifying new features that can facilitate future research in this area. Some of the findings of the study are as follows: (i) systematic changes of C and R parameters influence the diversity and convergence of the obtained solutions (to the optimal Pareto front and to the reference point), (ii) there is a tradeoff between the diversity and convergence speed, according to the systematic changes in the settings, (iii) the proposed diversity measures and the method are applicable and useful in combination with other performance measures. Moreover, we realized that because of the unexpected abnormal behaviors of the algorithm, in some cases the results are conflicting, therefore, impossible to interpret. This shows that still further research is required to verify the applicability and usefulness of AE-R-NSGA-II in practice. The knowledge gained in this study helps improving the algorithm.

In today’s world, simulation and optimization are playing a vital role in reducing the time, cost and preserving resources. In manufacturing industries, there are ample amount of problems that go on with the expansion of the industry. In such cases, to tackle these problems simulation can be helpful to check whether any change in the current situation makes any effect on the current efficiency of the overall plant. In the presented case study, a solution to the problem of internal and external logistics has been designed by using simulation and optimization to improve part of a material flow of an organization. Basically, the organization whose major production is established in the south of Sweden deals with the manufacturing and assembly of equipment. Before the dispatch, all of them go to the painting section which is the expansion of the present shop floor. However, the design and analysis of the material handling system to feed the new painting line which is going to be established by the organization is the aim of this case study. While achieving this aim the literature regarding the discrete event simulation, Lean and Simulation-Based optimization related to the material handling system has been done. Furthermore, the appropriate material handling systems along with the different scenarios were suggested to reduce the cost and the lead times between the production line and the new painting line. To support this process a methodology combining simulation, optimization and lean production has been implemented under the framework of the design and creation research strategy. In the Kaizen workshop organized at a company with managers and stakeholders, the designed scenarios were presented and after some discussion one of them was chosen and the selected scenario was designed and optimized. Moreover, the Simulation-Based multi-objective optimization has been helpful for the optimization of the designed model proposed as a final solution.

This doctoral thesis investigates the application of simulation-based optimization (SBO) as an alternative to conventional optimization techniques when the inherent uncertainty and complex features of real manufacturing systems need to be considered. Inspired by a real-world production planning setting, we provide a general formulation of the situation as an extended knapsack problem. We proceed by proposing a solution approach based on single and multi-objective SBO models, which use simulation to capture the uncertainty and complexity of the manufacturing system and employ meta-heuristic optimizers to search for near-optimal solutions. Moreover, we consider the design of matheuristic approaches that combine the advantages of population-based meta-heuristics with mathematical programming techniques. More specifically, we consider the integration of mathematical programming techniques during the initialization stage of the single and multi-objective approaches as well as during the actual search process. Using data collected from a manufacturing company, we provide evidence for the advantages of our approaches over conventional methods (integer linear programming and chance-constrained programming) and highlight the synergies resulting from the combination of simulation, meta-heuristics and mathematical programming methods. In the context of the same real-world problem, we also analyse different single and multi-objective SBO models for robust optimization. We demonstrate that the choice of robustness measure and the sample size used during fitness evaluation are crucial considerations in designing an effective multi-objective model.