Digital Repression: Backlash or Deterrence of Dissent? is a quantitative analysis of the MENA region between the years 2000 and 2020. By distinguishing, theoretically as well as empirically, between nonphysical and physical aspects of state repression, this study aims to fill an identified research gap and contribute to the literature on the repression-dissent puzzle. To answer the research question; how does digital repression affect dissent?, this study uses digital repression as the independent variable and looks into whether this nonphysical form of state repression has a positive or negative effect on dissent, aggregating between violent and nonviolent forms of the dependent variable. In connection to logistic regression, the main finding is that digital repression seems to have a positive (backlash) effect on dissent, no matter the type of dissident tactic.

Over the past decade, the success rate of non-violent resistance movements has decreased. With the development of information and communication technology (ICT), governments have taken repression into the digital realm to tamper with protest movements. The effects of repression on protest mobilization have been rather inconclusive; even less is known about the effects of digital repression. By using the political jiu-jitsu, backfire and moral jiu-jitsu theory as well as the theory on emotion and protest participation in hard autocracy, this thesis showcases how the moral shock and indignation helps to overcome fear caused by both traditional and digital repression, thus helping to explain the relationship between repression and mobilization. This theoretical framework is applied to the case of Belarusian post-election protests in 2010 and 2020. Although traditional repression was present in both time frames, there is a significant variation in the government’s digital repression resolve. The analysis shows that mobilization was primarily driven by traditional repression – police brutality and violence. However, in 2020 people were also outraged by censorship and Internet shutdowns that left them in an information vacuum which was deemed completely undeserved. The outrage about digital repression was facilitated by the opposition activities that acted against digital repression.