京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第19158号 / 地環博第133号 / 新制||地環||27(附属図書館) / 32109 / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎環境マネジメント専攻 / (主査)教授 ｼｮｳ ﾗｼﾞﾌﾞ, 教授 岡﨑 健二, 教授 清野 純史, 准教授 小林 広英, 准教授 西前 出 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

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Yes / ¿Part 1: The congestion of humanitarian space¿, assesses what affect the rapid proliferation of the international aid community¿s presence in Sri Lanka has had on local level relationships and emergency response capacities. It contends that the burgeoning presence of aid agencies resulted in humanitarian assistance becoming a hotly contested and competitive activity. It goes on to identify the possible factors that have contributed to the rapid congestion of this space in suggesting an explanation of why the humanitarian communities¿ normative standards appear to have failed.

<p dir="ltr">Increased frequency and intensity of disasters necessitate the dynamic post-disaster recovery process. Developing human mobility patterns, household return decision-making models, and agent-based simulations in disaster management has opened a new door towards more intricate and enduring recovery frameworks. Despite these opportunities, the importance of a unified framework is underestimated to identify the underlying mechanisms hindering the post-disaster recovery process. My research has been geared towards forging advancements in civil and disaster management, focusing on two main areas: (1) modeling the post-disaster recovery process and (2) identifying critical transitions within the recovery process.</p><p dir="ltr">My dissertation explores the collective and individual dynamics of post-disaster recovery across different spatial and temporal scales. I have identified the best recovery strategies for various contexts by constructing data-driven socio-physical multi-agent systems. Employing various advanced computational methodologies, including machine learning, system dynamics, causal discovery, econometrics, and network analysis, has been instrumental. I start with aggregated level analysis for post-disaster recovery. Initially, I examined the system dynamics model for the post-discovery recovery process in socio-physical systems, using normalized visit density of points of interest and power outage information. Through counterfactual analyses of budget allocation strategies, I discovered their significant impact on recovery trajectories, noting that specific budget allocations substantially enhance recovery patterns. I also revealed the urban-rural dissimilarity by the data-driven causal discovery approach. I utilized county-level normalized visit density of points of interest and nighttime light data to identify the relationship between counties. I found that urban and rural areas have similar but different recovery patterns across different types of points of interest.</p><p dir="ltr">Moving from aggregated to disaggregated level analysis on post-disaster recovery, I investigated household-level decision-making regarding disaster-induced evacuation and return behaviors. The model yielded insights into the varying influences of certain variables across urban and rural contexts. Subsequently, I developed a unified framework integrating aggregated and disaggregated level analyses through multilayer multi-agent systems to model significant shifts in the post-disaster recovery process. I evaluated various scenarios to pinpoint conditions for boosting recovery and assessing the effects of different intervention strategies on these transitions. Lastly, a comparison between mathematical models and graph convolutional networks was conducted to better understand the conditions leading to critical transitions in the recovery process. The insights and methodologies presented in this dissertation contribute to the broader understanding of the disaster recovery process in complex urban systems, advocating for a shift towards a unified framework over individual models. By harnessing big data and complex systems modeling, I can achieve a detailed quantitative analysis of the disaster recovery process, including critical transition conditions of the post-disaster recovery. This approach facilitates the evaluation of such recovery policies through inter-regional comparisons and the testing of various policy interventions in counterfactual scenarios.</p>

The aim of this research was to understand what elements should be considered in the construction of a pre-disaster recovery plan in order to move society towards sustainability during post-disaster recovery after a natural hazard event. A conceptual framework for Pre-disaster recovery planning (Pre-DRP) based on the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) was developed and critiqued by professionals in disaster management, resilience thinking, and sustainability in order to collect qualitative data to make the tool more rigorous and applicable to its intended audience. The revised framework, called the Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (Pre-DRP FSSD), includes a broad set of principles, planning strategies and guidelines, specifically designed to help communities become more resilient to disasters and move towards sustainability through Pre-DRP. As such, the Pre-DRP FSSD may help emergency planners at various levels of government to implement some of the strategic guidelines set out in the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015.

This research focuses upon cases wherein post]disaster housing assistance was affected by tenure insecurity. In the case of post]Katrina New Orleans, the Road Home, which provided monies for rebuilding, faced difficulties in allocating its aid because of heirship titles, a form of tenure insecurity to which the United States has often been misconceived as immune. In the case of post]Hurricane Mitch in Tegucigalpa, a post]disaster housing relocation program struggled to find lands in an urban land market with pervasive insecurity

Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005 and drastically altered the city of New Orleans causing the most damage to minority and low socioeconomic status communities such as the Lower Ninth Ward. Prior to Hurricane Katrina, African American women in the New Orleans constituted the group most marginalized in society. Following Hurricane Katrina, several studies have explored Hurricane Katrina and disaster recovery in New Orleans. However, few studies have explored gender as it relates to natural disasters and recovery. Therefore, this study explores the experiences of African American women with disaster recovery in the Lower Ninth Ward.

The occurrence of devastating natural disasters in the past several years have prompted communities, responding organizations, and governments to seek ways to improve disaster preparedness capabilities locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. A holistic approach to design used in the aerospace and industrial engineering fields enables efficient allocation of resources through applied parametric changes within a particular design to improve performance metrics to selected standards. In this research, this methodology is applied to disaster preparedness, using a community's time to restoration after a disaster as the response metric. A review of the responses from Hurricane Katrina and the 2010 Haiti earthquake, among other prominent disasters, provides observations leading to some current capability benchmarking. A need for holistic assessment and planning exists for communities but the current response planning infrastructure lacks a standardized framework and standardized assessment metrics. Within the humanitarian logistics community, several different metrics exist, enabling quantification and measurement of a particular area's vulnerability. These metrics, combined with design and planning methodologies from related fields, such as engineering product design, military response planning, and business process redesign, provide insight and a framework from which to begin developing a methodology to enable holistic disaster response planning. The developed methodology was applied to the communities of Shelby County, TN and pre-Hurricane-Katrina Orleans Parish, LA. Available literature and reliable media sources provide information about the different values of system parameters within the decomposition of the community aspects and also about relationships among the parameters. The community was modeled as a system dynamics model and was tested in the implementation of two, five, and ten year improvement plans for Preparedness, Response, and Development capabilities, and combinations of these capabilities. For Shelby County and for Orleans Parish, the Response improvement plan reduced restoration time the most. For the combined capabilities, Shelby County experienced the greatest reduction in restoration time with the implementation of Development&Response capability improvements, and for Orleans Parish it was the Preparedness&Response capability improvements. Optimization of restoration time with community parameters was tested by using a Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. Fifty different optimized restoration times were generated using the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm and ranked using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The optimization results indicate that the greatest reduction in restoration time for a community is achieved with a particular combination of different parameter values instead of the maximization of each parameter.

This study sets out: 1. To identify and demonstrate a body of knowledge relevant to Maori and remediation of biological hazards, chemical hazards and natural disasters (disaster recovery) 2. To do it in a Maori-appropriate way that supports Maori research approach 3. To provide something new and useful for Maori and other stakeholders involved in such issues A Kaupapa Maori mixed-methodology was used to guide research decisions and actions, including the development of a ‘Haurapa’ approach based on the journey of a ‘typical Maori researcher’. Through literature review, case studies and semi-structured interviews, a pool of knowledge was identified and used to draw out a set of themes and indicators which complement others in related fields. New knowledge was validated against related findings. Use of the findings is demonstrated, along with ideas for future application and testing. A conceptual ‘Pa model’ is proposed as a useful way to approach the subject for engagement with Maori and improved understanding of the overall context. Existing frameworks are adapted to work for this topic, including a useful tool for filtering potential indicators. In conducting this study, the following hunches or hypotheses were considered: ? That Maori are not adequately prepared or included regarding modern hazards and disaster response ? A lack of Maori involvement results in inequalities ? Valuable gains can be made with a Maori-centred approach and proper treatment of Maori issues The conclusion supports the statements and recommends further work in the area.

This study sets out: 1. To identify and demonstrate a body of knowledge relevant to Maori and remediation of biological hazards, chemical hazards and natural disasters (disaster recovery) 2. To do it in a Maori-appropriate way that supports Maori research approach 3. To provide something new and useful for Maori and other stakeholders involved in such issues A Kaupapa Maori mixed-methodology was used to guide research decisions and actions, including the development of a ‘Haurapa’ approach based on the journey of a ‘typical Maori researcher’. Through literature review, case studies and semi-structured interviews, a pool of knowledge was identified and used to draw out a set of themes and indicators which complement others in related fields. New knowledge was validated against related findings. Use of the findings is demonstrated, along with ideas for future application and testing. A conceptual ‘Pa model’ is proposed as a useful way to approach the subject for engagement with Maori and improved understanding of the overall context. Existing frameworks are adapted to work for this topic, including a useful tool for filtering potential indicators. In conducting this study, the following hunches or hypotheses were considered: ? That Maori are not adequately prepared or included regarding modern hazards and disaster response ? A lack of Maori involvement results in inequalities ? Valuable gains can be made with a Maori-centred approach and proper treatment of Maori issues The conclusion supports the statements and recommends further work in the area.