Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research explored factors underlying successful implementation of development policy. It applied new institutional economic analysis to policy-making processes viewed from the theory, methodology and practice perspectives. Two important results came out of the analysis. Firstly, policy performance depends on private actors’ optimization processes that may or may not end up in conflict with the policy prescriptions. This constitutes a major source of uncertainty. Secondly, getting the policy content right is a necessary but not sufficient condition for success. How policy actions are delivered (implemented by private agents) matters a lot. The policy maker is therefore invited to devise an appropriate mechanism design to that effect. The study proposes the Connectedness model as a normative methodology to minimize uncertainty and increase the likelihood of policy success. The model was inspired by a retroductive inference from some Rwandan living experiments in policy management, which have assisted the country to quickly recover from the 1994 Genocide of the Tutsi and achieve high economic performance in a record time. The Connectedness model defines four actors of a policy process – the politician, the policy expert/bureaucrat, the change manager/consciousness nurturer and the private actor– and describes the nature of interactions between and among them susceptible to guarantee success. The more role players are coordinated, share the same vision and implement consensus building mechanisms, the higher the likelihood for the policy to deliver according to plans. The study proposes three recommendations. Firstly, further research is needed to operationalize leadership, private sector spirit and connectedness institutions as endogenous variables in the new growth theory models. Secondly, new methodologies are to be devised to capture behaviour of individuals and the dynamic nature of policy making processes in macroeconomic modeling. Thirdly, economists and policy makers ought to value more the contribution of social science disciplines such as sociology and psychology in gathering evidence and tools to handle change effectively. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing het faktore ondersoek wat onderliggend is aan die suksesvolle implementering van ontwikkelingsbeleid. Dit het nuwe institusionele ekonomiese analise op beleidmakingsprosesse toegepas, gesien vanuit die perspektiewe van teorie, metodologie en die praktyk. Daar het twee belangrike gevolge vanuit hierdie analise voortgevloei. Eerstens, beleidsprestasie hang af van die private rolspelers se optimaliseringsprosesse wat aan die einde van die dag in stryd met beleidsvoorskrifte mag wees – of dalk nie. Dit is dus ‘n groot bron van onsekerheid. Tweedens is die regkry van die beleidsinhoud ‘n noodsaaklike maar nie genoegsame voorwaarde vir sukses nie. Hoe beleidsaksies gelewer word (geïmplementeer word deur privaatagente) is baie belangrik. Die beleidmaker word dus uitgenooi om ‘n toepaslike meganisme-ontwerp te dien effekte te skep. Die navorsingstudie stel die verbondenheidsmodel voor as ‘n normatiewe metodologie om onsekerheid te minimaliseer en die waarskynlikheid van beleidsukses te verhoog. Die model is geïnspireer deur ‘n retroduktiewe afleiding wat gemaak is na aanleiding van ‘n paar Rwandese lewende eksperimente in beleidsbestuur wat die land gehelp het om vinnig te herstel na die menseslagting van die Tutsi’s gedurende 1994 en om hoë ekonomiese prestasie in ‘n rekordtyd te bereik. Die verbondenheidsmodel omskryf vier rolspelers van ‘n beleidsproses – die politikus, die beleidskundige/burokraat, die veranderingbestuurder/bewussynsversorger en die private rolspeler – en beskryf die aard van die interaksies tussen hulle wat na alle waarskynlikheid sukses kan waarborg. Hoe meer die rolspelers gekoördineer word, dieselfde visie deel en konsensusbouende meganismes implementeer, hoe hoër is die waarskynlikheid dat die beleid volgens plan sal lewer. Die navorsingstudie stel drie aanbevelings voor. Eerstens is verdere navorsing nodig om leierskap, die gees van die privaatsektor sowel as die verbondenheidsinstellings te operasionaliseer as endogene veranderlikes in die nuwe groeiteoriemodelle. Tweedens behoort daar nuwe metodologieë geskep te word om die gedrag van individue sowel as die dinamiese aard van beleidmakingsprosesse in makro-ekonomiese modellering vas te vang. Derdens behoort ekonome en beleidmakers die bydraes van dissiplines in die Sosiale Wetenskappe byvoorbeeld Sosiologie en Sielkunde hoër aan te slaan wanneer bewyse en instrumente bymekaar gemaak word om verandering op ‘n effektiewe manier te hanteer.

Thesis (MCom)--University of Stellenbosch, 1966. / 242 leaves typed on single pages, preliminary pages i-v and numbered pages 1-230. Includes bibliography. / Digitized at 330 dpi black and white PDF format (OCR),using KODAK i 1220 PLUS scanner.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates the extent to which educational attainment, school quality and numeric competency influence individuals’ employment and earnings prospects in the South African labour market using data from the 2008 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). While NIDS is one of the first datasets to contain concurrent information on individual labour market outcomes, educational attainment levels, numeric proficiency and the quality of schooling received in South Africa, it is also characterised by limited and selective response patterns on its school quality and numeracy measures. To account for any estimation biases that arise from the selective observation of these variables or from endogenous selection into labour force participation and employment, the labour market returns to human capital are estimated using the Heckman Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach. The Heckman ML estimates are then compared to Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates obtained using various sub-samples and model specifications in order to distinguish between the effects that model specification, estimation sample, and estimation procedure have on estimates of the labour market returns to human capital in South Africa. The findings from the multivariate analysis suggest that labour market returns to educational attainment in South Africa are largely negligible prior to tertiary levels of attainment and that racial differentials in school quality may explain a significant component of the observed racial differentials in South African labour market earnings. Neither numeracy nor school quality appears to influence labour market outcomes or the convex structure of the labour market returns to educational attainment in South Africa significantly once sociodemographic factors and other human capital endowment differentials have been taken into account. Though the regression results vary substantially across model specifications and estimation samples, they are largely unaffected by attempts to correct for instances of endogenous selection using the Heckman ML procedure. These findings suggest that the scope for overcoming data deficiencies by using standard parametric estimation techniques may be limited when the extent of those deficiencies are severe and that some form of sensitivity analysis is warranted whenever data imperfections threaten to undermine the robustness of one’s results. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek in watter mate opvoedingspeil, skoolgehalte en numeriese vaardighede individue se werks- en verdienstevooruitsigte in die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark beïnvloed. Die studie gebruik data van die 2008 National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS). Alhoewel NIDS een van die eerste datastelle is wat inligting oor individuele arbeidsmarkuitkomste, opvoedingsvlakke, numeriese vaardighede sowel as skoolgehalte bevat, word dit ook gekenmerk deur beperkte en selektiewe responspatrone rakende skoolgehalte en die numeriese vaardigheidmaatstaf. Die arbeidsmarkopbrengs op menslike kapitaal word deur middel van die Heckman ‘Maximum Likelihood (ML)’-metode geskat om te kontroleer vir moontlike sydighede wat mag onstaan weens selektiewe waarneming van hierdie veranderlikes of as gevolg van endogene seleksie in arbeidsmarkdeelname of indiensneming. Die Heckman ML-skattings word dan vergelyk met gewone kleinste-kwadrate-skattings wat met behulp van verskeie modelspesifikasies en steekproewe beraam is, om sodoende te bepaal hoe verskillende spesifikasies, steekproewe en beramingstegnieke skattings van die arbeidsmarkopbrengste op menslike kapitaal in Suid-Afrika beïnvloed. Die meerveranderlike-analise dui daarop dat daar grotendeels onbeduidende arbeidsmarkopbrengste is op opvoeding in Suid-Afrika vir opvoedingsvlakke benede tersiêre vlak, en dat rasseverskille in skoolgehalte ’n beduidende deel van waargenome rasseverskille in arbeidsmarkverdienste mag verduidelik. Indien sosio-demografiese faktore en ander menslike kapitaalverskille in ag geneem word, beïnvloed syfervaardigheid en skoolgehalte nie arbeidsmarkuitkomstes en die konvekse struktuur van die arbeidsmarkopbrengste op opvoeding in Suid-Afrika beduidend verder nie. Terwyl die regressieresultate aansienlik tussen die verskillende modelspesifikasies en steekproewe verskil, word die resultate weinig geraak deur vir gevalle van endogene seleksie met behulp van die Heckman ML-metode te kontroleer. Hierdie bevindinge dui daarop dat daar net beperkte ruimte bestaan om ernstige dataleemtes met behulp van standaard parametriese beramingstegnieke te oorkom, en dat die een of ander vorm van sensitiwiteitsanalise benodig word wanneer datagebreke die betroubaarheid van die beraamde resultate nadelig kan raak.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study analyses the relationship between mineral rent and Botswana’s economic diversification. The analysis is done by; 1) providing an overview of Botswana’s economy and development, 2) explaining the economics of minerals, 3) describing Botswana’s mineral economy, 4) examining how mineral rent is generated and utilised in Botswana, 5) analysing the economic diversification of Botswana, 6) investigating constraints faced by Botswana in diversifying the economy, and 7) concluding by offering recommendations that can assist policy makers with decisions regarding economic diversification. The economic value of minerals is measured by the rent they earn. Rent is profit above the normal return on total investment and is due to the scarcity of minerals. Management of minerals to achieve sustainability requires that rent is recovered through various taxes and be invested in economic activities that can provide income and employment for the future generation. In Botswana, mineral rent is generated from royalty payments, profit taxes and withholding tax on remitted dividends. Total resource rent was estimated at P160 million in 1979, but by the 2008/09 financial year, rent had increased by more than tenfold and was estimated at P10.56 billion. Diamond mining generates most of the rent and accounts for most of all the economic value of minerals, between 98 percent and 99 percent from 2004 and 2009. Copper nickel is the second most important resource after diamonds with a contribution that is between 1.03 percent and 1.34 percent of total resource rent in the 2007/08 and 2008/09 financial years. Coal, gold and soda ash are much less valuable from an economic perspective. In the 1973/74 financial year, the mining industry contributed about 34 percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices and a high of 48 percent in 2000/01, although contribution declined to 40 percent in 2007/08. The mining industry contributed about 90 percent to total exports in 2001. In the same year, diamonds contributed about 85 percent to total exports and about 95 percent to the mining sector’s exports. Since minerals took centre stage in the economy of Botswana, rent has been utilised to acquire foreign reserves abroad and finance development priorities such as the provision of health care, education and infrastructure. Part of the rent is also used to develop economic diversification through targeted initiatives that increase private sector involvement in economic activity. Even though that is the case, the Ogive Index shows that from 1973 to 2009, economic diversification has taken place, but at a slow pace. Slow economic diversification is a result of structural problems such as; a small domestic economy, high transportation costs, high cost of doing business, not fully benefitting from regional trade and vulnerability to transitional challenges like the economic crisis’. To overcome these problems, Botswana should benchmark in other mineral-rich countries to address internal capacity problems and production deficiencies. The country should also strive to benefit from international trade at a bilateral, regional and multilateral level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie is die verhouding tussen mineraalontginningsurplus en Botswana se ekonomiese diversifikasie ontleed. Hierdie ontleding is gedoen deur 1) ’n oorsig te bied van Botswana se ekonomie en ontwikkeling; 2) die ekonomie van minerale te verduidelik; 3) Botswana se mineraalekonomie te beskryf; 4) die manier waarop mineraalontginningsurplus in Botswana gegenereer en benut word, te ondersoek; 5) die ekonomiese diversifikasie van Botswana te ontleed; 6) beperkings waarvoor Botswana te staan kom in die diversifikasie van die ekonomie te ondersoek; en 7) af te sluit met aanbevelings wat beleidmakers kan help met besluite oor ekonomiese diversifikasie. Die ekonomiese waarde van minerale word gemeet deur die ontginningsurplus wat dit verdien. Ontginningsurplus is wins bo die normale rendement van die totale belegging en is in gebruik weens die skaarste van minerale. Die bestuur van minerale vir volhoubaarheid vereis dat ontginningsurplus deur verskeie soorte belasting verhaal word en in ekonomiese aktiwiteite belê word wat inkomste en werkverskaffing vir die toekomstige generasies kan verskaf. In Botswana word mineraalontginningsurplus uit tantièmebetaling, winsbelasting en terughoubelasting op geremitteerde dividende gegenereer. Die totale hulpbronontginningsurplus is in 1979 op P160 miljoen geraam, maar teen die 2008/09- finansiële jaar het die ontginningsurplus tienvoudig vermeerder en is dit op P10.56 biljoen geraam. Diamantontginning genereer die meeste van die ontginningsurplus en is verantwoordelik vir die grootste gedeelte van die totale ekonomiese waarde van minerale – tussen 98% en 99% vanaf 2004 tot 2009. Nikkeliet is die tweede belangrikste hulpbron ná diamante,met ’n bydrae van tussen 1.03% en 1.34% van die totale hulpbronontginningsurplus in die 2007/08- en 2008/09- finansiële jaar. Steenkool, goud en soda-as is aansienlik minder waardevol vanuit ’n ekonomiese perspektief. In die 1973/74- finansiële jaar het die mynwese ongeveer 34% tot die bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) teen huidige pryse bygedra, met ’n hoogtepunt van 48% in 2000/01, alhoewel die bydrae tot 40% in 2007/08 afgeneem het. Die mynwese het ongeveer 90% tot totale uitvoere in 2001 bygedra. In dieselfde jaar het diamante ongeveer 85% tot totale uitvoere en ongeveer 95% tot die mynbedryf se uitvoere bygedra. Sedert minerale die kern van Botswana se ekonomie begin vorm het, is ontginningsurplus gebruik om buitelandse reserwes te verkry en ontwikkelingsprioriteite, soos die verskaffing van gesondheidsorg, opvoeding en infrastruktuur, te finansier. ’n Gedeelte van die ontginningsurplus word ook gebruik om ekonomiese diversifikasie te ontwikkel deur teikeninisiatiewe wat die privaat sektor se betrokkenheid by ekonomiese aktiwiteit bevorder. Ten spyte hiervan, toon die Ogive-index dat ekonomiese diversifikasie wel van 1973 tot 2009 plaasgevind het, maar dat dit teen ’n stadige pas geskied het. Stadige ekonomiese diversifikasie is ’n gevolg van strukturele probleme soos ’n klein binnelandse ekonomie, hoë vervoerkoste, hoë sakekoste, streekshandel waaruit voordeel nie ten volle verkry word nie en kwesbaarheid vir oorgangsuitdagings soos die ekonomiese krisis. Botswana moet met ander mineraalryk lande normeer om interne kapasiteitsprobleme en produksiegebreke die hoof te bied. Die land moet ook daarna streef om op ’n bilaterale, streeks- en multilaterale vlak uit internasionale handel munt te slaan.

Thesis (MComm (Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / The aim of this study was to analyse educational performance in Mozambique by 1) comparing the determinants of education in developing countries with the situation in country, 2) understanding the supply factors that influence enrolments and education attainment, 3) evaluating the efficiency of the current education system, 4) analysing the importance to education of each of the demand determinants and of school quality on education attainment, and 5) contributing information to assist policy makers with decisions regarding education. Mozambique is one of the poorest countries in the world. More than half of the population lives below the poverty line and the general adult literacy is only 54%. The education system is mainly characterized by weak performance as a whole, high grade repetition, high dropout rates, low survival rates, high pupil-teacher ratios and a low percentage of qualified teachers. In addition to this, there is a great deal of inequality in education achievement by province, place of residence, income group and gender. After this preliminary analysis, chapter II (literature review) highlighted critical inputs and served as a guideline for the following chapters of this study. The dimensions analysed in the followed chapters were: 1) Supply Factors, 2) Demand determinants and 3) School Quality. Chapter III therefore consisted of a descriptive analysis of the most important supply ...

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nearly five million South Africans were unemployed in 2002 and creating employment opportunities is a difficult challenge. Before this issue can be tackled, however, it is critical to understand the problem. This thesis opts to contribute to this understanding by considering aspects around the demand for labour. The analysis considers a selection of the theoretical literature on the demand for labour, estimates key labour market parameters and then undertakes a number of simulations using a structural model. There are many conflicting paradigms that can be used to analyse the issue: microeconomic versus macroeconomic; neoclassical versus structuralist; theoretical versus empirical and so forth. Some of these paradigms are considered as part of the attempt to build an empirical framework that can be used to analyse the issue. The empirical results of the thesis suggest that: • Higher real wages lead to lowering of the quantity demanded of labour. The thesis estimates an economy-wide wage elasticity of employment of approximately -0,67; • Higher output stimulates the demand for labour. The single equation estimate of the employment elasticity of output is between 0,66 and 0,75, whilst the economy-wide estimate is approximately 1,1. The latter takes into account feedback effects from other macroeconomic variables, such as productivity and wages; • There is little evidence to show that the efficiency wage hypothesis holds - higher productivity leads to higher wages, but the converse is not true; • Union power increases real wages, indirectly leading to a fall in the demand for labour. This suggests that the labour market has insiders and outsiders; and • The relative price of labour is also important, with a fall in the cost of capital leading to a decrease in the demand for labour. Simulations suggest that job creation can be achieved through policies that encourage wage moderation and increase economic growth. There is also a potential role, albeit limited, for fiscal incentives such as a mooted earned income tax credit. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Byna vyf miljoen Suid-Afrikaners was werkloos in 2002 en werkskepping is 'n moeilike uitdaging. Voordat hierdie kwessie aangepak kan word, is dit egter noodsaaklik om die probleem te verstaan. Hierdie tesis dra by tot hierdie begrip deur te fokus op punte rondom die vraag na arbeid. Die ontleding kyk na 'n verskeidenheid van teoretiese literatuur oor die vraag na arbeid en identifiseer sleutel-parameters vir die arbeidsmark. Daar is soveel teenstrydige paradigmas wat gebruik kan word om die kwessie te ontleed: Mikro-ekonomies teenoor makro-ekonomies; neoklassiek teenoor strukturalisties; teoreties teenoor empiries, ensovoorts. Sommige van hierdie paradigmas word bespreek as deel van die poging om 'n empiriese raamwerk te bou wat gebruik kan word om die kwessie te ontleed. Die empiriese resultate van die tesis toon: • Hoër reële lone lei tot 'n verlaging van die hoeveelheid arbeid aangevra. Die tesis beraam die ekonomiewye loonelastisiteit van indiensneming op sowat - 0,67; • Hoër uitset stimuleer die vraag na arbeid. Die enkelvergelyking-raming van die uitset-elastisiteit van indiensneming is tussen 0,66 en 0,75, terwyl die ekonomiewye raming sowat 1,1 is. Laasgenoemde neem terugvoerinvloede van ander makro-ekonomiese veranderlikes in ag, bv. produktiwiteit en lone. • Daar is min bewyse dat die doeltreffende loon-hipotese water hou: Hoër produktiwiteit lei tot hoër lone, maar die teendeel is onwaar; • Vakbonde se mag verhoog reële lone, wat indirek lei tot 'n daling van die vraag na arbeid. Dit dui daarop dat die arbeidsmark 'n binnekring en buitestaanders het; en • Die relatiewe prys van arbeid is ook belangrik: 'n Afname van die koste van kapitaal veroorsaak 'n daling van die vraag na arbeid. Simulasies toon dat werkskepping bevorder kan word deur beleid wat loonmatiging en ekonomiese groei bevorder. Daar is ook 'n rol, alhoewel beperk, vir fiskale insentiewe, b.v. 'n loonsubsidie.

Thesis (MComm.)--Stellenbosch University, 1995. / Many co-operative societies make use of a system of pooling the produce delivered to it by its members. The delivered produce is thrown into one common stock and its identity is lost in the process. Each season's harvest would normally form a separate pool. The co-operative keeps record of all the pool transactions in the form of a pool account. In short these transactions consist of the proceeds from the sale of the pooled mass, commission charged by the co.:.operative, expenses incurred in the processing and marketing of the products, as well as advances to the members. The surplus of the pool account is divided among the members at the closing of the account, in proportion to their contributions to that specific pool. Each member's share in the surplus is reduced by advances already received. In practice, only the advances and the final share of the surplus, reduced by advances already received, are included in the taxable income of the members. Realised sales, not yet distributed to the members are therefore not included in the taxable income of the members, nor of the co-operative society. The value of unsold pool stock at year end is further not included in the taxable income of the individual members, nor of the co-operative society. In this study, the treatment of co-operative pools from an income tax perspective is investigated in order to determine whether the treatment in practice is a correct reflection of the law. The study first gives a general background of the co-operative society as a form of a business enterprise. This is necessary in order to understand the creation of co-operative pools. The study further deals specifically with co-operative pools and the income tax consequences thereof. The following aspects are discussed: (a) The legal nature and consequences of pooling are investigated. The rights and obligations between the relevant parties will determine the income tax consequences. The study concentrates on whether ownership of the produce is transferred to the co-operative society as well as the implications in law of the mixing of all the produce and the further processing thereof. The capacity in which the co-operative processes and disposes of the products are also investigated. (b) A discussion is also given on whether the participants of a particular pool form an association of persons. Certainty in this regard is necessary before the income tax consequences of pooling for the co-operative society or the individual members can be discussed. An association of persons is regarded as a person for income tax purposes and is therefore a separate taxpayer. A partnership will, however, not be a separate taxpayer. As the circumstances with pooling resembles that of a partnership, the legal requirements of partnerships are also investigated. (c) The income tax consequences of pooling for the co-operative society as well as the individual members are discussed in detail. The conclusions are reached by applying the general income tax principals, as laid down by the courts, on the circumstances that exist with pooling. The fact that the members are co-owners of the pooled mass and the co-operative society is regarded as the irrevocable agent of the members, has a significant influence on the income tax consequences. From the above, the conclusion is reached that the income tax treatment of pooling in practice, is a correct reflection of the law, not only in respect of receipts and accruals, but also in respect of the treatment of unsold pool stock.

Thesis (MComm.)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the recent past the industrialised world bore witness to staggering growth in the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. In the face of this growth process economic theory had to confront new challenges in explaining and interpreting economic phenomena. The complex nature of inter- and intra-firm relationships forced a pragmatic stance on policy makers to ensure that all actions are efficient and competitive. Two prominent schools of thought with contradictory viewpoints emerged. The Structuralists built upon the foundations laid by Bain (1951) and Mason (1939). This implied a theoretical framework, namely the Structure, Conduct and Perofrmance paradigm (SCP paradigm) that could be used to explain inter- and intra-firm relations according to a simple forward causality argument. The Structuralists' interpretation of the SCP paradigm provides strong support for the implementation of deconcentration measures by competition authorities. The Chicago School, however, developed a counter-argument inspired by Demsetz's (1973) efficiency hypothesis. According to them, causality is reversed and deconcentration measures are used at the expense of the most efficient firms. The thesis aims to study these contradictory arguments as well as their evolution in South Africa. Various researchers in South Africa have built on the arguments of the Structuralists and the Chicagoans regarding the manufacturing sector. The theoretical methods implemented by them will be applied to the long-term insurance industry to assess the validity of the SCP paradigm as a theoretical framework for the application of competition policy. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Fenomenale groei in die sekondêre en tersiêre sektore van die ekonomie het nuwe uitdagings ter verklaring en interpretering van inter- en intra-ondernemingsverhoudinge verskaf. Die komplekse aard van die verhoudinge het 'n pragmatiese aanslag ter versekering van effektiwiteit deur beleidmakers genoodsaak. Twee prominente denkskole met teenstrydige argumente het ontstaan. Die Strukturaliste het hulle sieninge op die werk van Bain (1951) en Mason (1939) gebaseer. Hierdie teorieë verwys na 'n teoretiese raamwerk, naamlik die Struktuur, Gedrag en Prestasie paradigma (SGP paradigma), wat gebruik kan word om inter- en intra-ondernemingsverhoudinge aan die hand van 'n kousaliteitsvloei van struktuur na prestasie, te verklaar. Die Strukturaliste se interpretasie van die SGP paradigma verskaf ondersteuning Vir die implementering van 'n dekonsentrasiebeleid deur mededingingsowerhede. Die Chicago Skool het 'n argument ontwikkel wat op die effektiwiteitshipotese van Demsetz (1973) gebaseer is. Volgens hulle beweeg kousaliteit in die teenoorgestelde rigting as wat die Strukturaliste beweer en straf dekonsentrasiemaatreëls die mees effektiewe ondernemings. Hierdie werkstuk het ten doelom hierdie argumente sowel as die evolusie daarvan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks te ondersoek. Verskeie navorsers in Suid-Afrika het op argumente van dié twee denkskole ten opsigte van die vervaardingingsektor voortgebou. Die teoretiese metodiek wat deur hulle ontwikkel is, sal aangewend word om die geldigheid van die SGP paradigma as die teoretiese raamwerk vir die aanwending van 'n mededingingsbeleid in die langtermyn-versekeringsbedryf van Suid-Afrika vas te stel.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2002. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa faces one of the world's most severe HIV/AIDS epidemics. Whereas the disease was initially only regarded as a serious health crisis, it is now clear that the epidemic will also have economic repercussions. The objective of this study is to project the extent of the macro-economic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa over the next 10 to 15 years. The study commences with a discussion of the key characteristics of HIV/AIDS and the current status of the epidemic in South Africa. The demographic inputs used are based on projections produced by the HIV/AIDS model of Metropolitan Life (the Doyle model). The methodology and key assumptions behind the Doyle model are described briefly, after which the demographic projections are presented and discussed. The paper contains a summary of previous approaches to modelling the economic impact of HIV/AIDS, as well as a presentation and discussion of their simulation results. In reviewing the available literature on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS, it becomes apparent that researchers have not yet reached consensus on the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa - estimates of the impact on GDP growth range anywhere between a reduction of 0.3 and 2.0 percentage points over the next 10 to 15 years. The approach that is used in modelling the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in this study comprises the following: Firstly, a no-AIDS forecast of the South African economy is generated using the annual macro-econometric forecasting model of the Bureau for Economic Research. Secondly, the channels through which the epidemic would likely impact on the economy are identified and modelled. These include slower growth in the population and the labour force; higher employee benefit contributions by employers and employees; indirect costs to the private and public sectors (e.g. lower productivity and higher recruitment and training costs); and higher health and welfare expenditure by the government, as well as an increase in tax rates. The economic effects of each impact channel are analysed independently, after which the different impact channels are combined in the model for the aggregated AIDS inclusive simulation. The results are presented in the form of comparisons between "no-AIDS" and "AIDS" projections for key economic variables for the period 2001 to 2015. The paper also contains results from a macro-economic sensitivity analysis, in which seven of the key assumptions are altered in order to test the sensitivity of the model to these changes. Simulation results indicate that the epidemic will have a negative impact on economic growth in South Africa - real GDP growth could fall from a projected average of 3.7% over the period 2002-2015 without HIV/AIDS to between 3.4% and 3.1 % per year with HIV/AIDS. In contrast, real per capita GDP growth is projected to be 0.7 to 1.0 percentage points higher compared to a no-AIDS scenario, as the adverse impact of the epidemic on the population will outweigh the negative impact on real GDP. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika staar een van die wêreld se ernstigste MIV/VIGS epidemies in die gesig. Aanvanklik is die siekte slegs as 'n erge gesondheidskrisis beskou, maar vandag is dit duidelik dat die epidemie ook ekonomiese gevolge sal hê. Die oogmerk van hierdie studie is om die omvang van die makro-ekonomiese impak van MIV/VIGS oor die volgende 10 tot 15 jaar in Suid-Afrika te beraam. Die proefskrif begin met 'n bespreking van die belangrikste eienskappe van MIV/VIGS en die huidige stand van die epidemie in Suid-Afrika. Die demografiese insette wat gebruik word, is gebaseer op projeksies van Metropolitan se MIV/VIGS model (die Doyle model). Die metodiek en die sleutel aannames van die Doyle model word kortliks bespreek, waarna die demografiese projeksies aangebied en bespreek word. Die studie bevat 'n opsomming van benaderings wat van te vore gebruik is om die ekonomiese impak van MIV/VIGS te modelleer, asook 'n voorlegging en 'n bespreking van hul resultate. 'n Oorsig van beskikbare literatuur oor die ekonomiese impak van MIV/VIGS bring aan die lig dat daar in werkilikheid nog geen konsensus oor die omvang van die impak op die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie bereik is nie. Beramings van die impak op BBP groei oor die volgende 10 tot 15 jaar wissel van 'n vermindering met 0.3 tot 2.0 persentasie punte. Die benadering wat in hierdie studie gevolg word om die ekonomiese impak van HIV/VIGS te modelleer behels die volgende: Eerstens word 'n vooruitskatting van die Suid- Afrikaanse ekonomie sonder MIV/VIGS gegenereer met die hulp van die makroekonometriese vooruitskattings model van die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek. Die tweede stap behels die identifisering en die modellering van die verskillende kanale waardeur die epidemie moontlik die ekonomie kan affekteer. Dit sluit onder andere die volgende in: stadiger groei in die populasie en die arbeidsmag; hoër bydraes deur werkgewers en werknemers aan werknemer-bystandfondse; indirekte onkostes vir die privaat en openbare sektore (bv. laer produktiviteit en hoër werwings- en opleidings koste); 'n toename in staatsbesteding op gesondheids en welsyns dienste; asook 'n styging in belastingkoerse. Die ekonomiese implikasies van elkeen van die kanale word individueelontleed, waarna die verskillende kanale saamgevoeg word vir die oorkoepelende simulasie. Die resultate word aangebied in die vorm van vergelykings tussen "geen-VIGS" en "VIGS" projeksies vir sleutel ekonomiese veranderlikes oor die periode 2001-2015. Die proefskrif bevat ook 'n voorlegging van die resultate van 'n makro-ekonomiese sensitiviteits ontleding, waarin sewe van die sleutel aannames verander is met die doelom die gevoeligheid van die model vir hierdie veranderinge te bepaal. Die resultate toon dat die epidemie 'n negatiewe uitwerking op ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika sal hê - die gemiddelde groeikoers in die reële BBP oor die periode 2001-2015 mag daal van 'n geprojekteerde 3.7% sonder MIV/VIGS tot tussen 3.4% en 3.1 % met MIV/VIGS. In teenstelling toon die resultate dat die gemiddelde groeikoers in per capita reële BBP tussen 0.7 en 1.0 persentasie punte hoër mag wees vergeleke met die "geen-VIGS" scenario. Die toename in per capita BBP groei kan toegeskryf word aan die skerp daling in die groei van die populasie as gevolg van MIV/VIGS.

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 1992. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Societies are imaginative when setting up non-marl\et responses to deal v1ith insecurity and deprivation. The result is that there are many different services (such as income support, personal welfare services, education, health care and housing) catering for the very general objective of providing security. In addition, a variety of institutions can, and do, provide these services. While the traditional theory of public goods and e::...1ernalities does not provide clear justification for increased state provision of these services (in contrast to market, family, community and employer provision), increased state provision and coordination do seem to be a clear trend both from historical and comparative perspectives. Furthermore, this increased role of the state can be interpreted as representing a reassignment of the traditional roles of other institutions (noted above) to the state. The above trend can be rationalized on economic grounds as being the result of the changing nature of societies which affects the viability of different institutions In the provision of social services. Economic devt~lopment affects the cost of production of social services by different institutions differently. Taking a more in depth view of the costs of production, there are grounds to believe that the comparative advantage of the state in the provision of these_ services grows- a-s economic development takes place. "Nationalization" of the provision of services providing social security as economic development takes place can thus be seen as a stylized fact of economic development, and as representing an adjustment which can be efficiency enhancing. lt is from this perspective that the issue of the affordabiiity of increased social provision in developing countries should be approached. The South African experience provides further evidence of the increasing pressures, over time, for greater state provision of social security. The experience also, how . .:wer, furnishes examples of how in a specific situation these forces can be obstructed by speciric political institutions and how social policy can fail to adjust to changing circumstances. This resulted in the current unequal access to social services, the inequality of benefit levels and the incomplete coverage of risks faced by people in the South African economy. In spite of the incompleteness of the South African social safety net and the inequality which it reflects, fiscal and macroeconomic constraints seem to limit the possibilities for eAtending the safety net and for making it more just These constraints imply, and have resultoo in, the lowering of benefits to the previously privileged _;-( and an adjustment in the nature of benefits, leading to a focus on lower cost services which offer high rates of return. Current demands and envisaged changes in the spht?re of social policy, especially those surrounding a national pension system with universal coverage and G:·.tensive speci31 employm.3nt programmes, however, indicate the strength of the forces making for increase:d "nationali:ation" of income support and other social services. How the perceived fiscal constraints can be reconciled with the alleged rationality of a growing role for the South African state in social provision remains a question. The very general response of this study needs to be evaluated by looking in more d.:.tail at specific programmes and specific aspects of insecurity. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Samelewings is verbeeldingryk met die daarstelling van nie-markgeorienteerde installings om armoede en 'n gebrek aan bestaanssekerheid die hoof te bied. Daarom is daar 'n verskeidenheid dienste (soos inkomsteversekering, persoonlih:e welsynsdienste, gesondheid, onderwys en behuising) om die baie algemene behoefte aan bestaanssekerheid aan te spreek. Daar is dan ook 'n hele verskeidenheid instellings wat hierdie dienste voorsien, en kan voorsien. Alhoewel die tradisionele teorie van publieke goedere en ekstemaliteite nie voldoende regverdiging vir groeiende staatsvoorsiening van hierdia dlenste (in teenstelllng met verskafflng deur markte, families, gemeenskappe en werkgewers) daarstel nie, blyk dit dat toenemende staatsvoorslening uit 'n historiese sowel as vergelykende perspektief 'n duid&like tendens verteenwoordlg. Verder kan die groeiende rol van die staat in hierdle steer oak gesit:m word .:ts die gevolg van die hertoewysing van tradisionele rolle van ander instellings (soos hierbo genoem) aan die staat. Hierdie tend ens kan op ekonomiese gronde gerasionaliseer word as die gevolg van die veranderende aard van samelewlngs wat die ekonomiese lewensvatbaarheid van instellings in die voorsiening van sosiale dienste beinvloed. Ekonomiese ontwikkeling affekteer verskillende instellings, en daarom die produksiekoste van sosiale dienste deur die instellings voorsien, op uiteenlopende maniere. lndien 'n bree konsep van produksiekoste gebruik word is dit moontlik am te argumenteer dat die ataat se vergelykende voordeel in die voorsiening van hierdie dienste toeneem soos 'n land ekonomies ontwikkel. "Nasionalisering" van die dienste wat sosiale sekuriteit daarstel kan dan gesien word as een van die basiese neigings wat met ekonomiese ontwikkeling geassosieer kan word. sowel as 'n aanpassing wat ekonomiese doeltreffendheid verbeter. Hierdle perspektief Is die gewensde een wanneer die kwessie van die bekostigbaarheid van toenemende sosiale voorsiening in ontwikkelende lande aangespreek word. Die Suid-Afrih:aanse ondervlnding in hierdie verband verskaf verdere getuienis van toenemende kragte, oar tyd, wat groeiende staatsvoorsiening van sosiale sekuriteit (sekerheid) In die hand werk. Die ondervinding voorsien egter oak voorbeelde van hoe hierdie kragte deur spesifleke politieke instellings omvorm kan word en hoe sosiale beleid 1\an agterbly by veranderende omstandighode. Hierdie faktore het aanleiding gegee tot die huidige ongelyke toegang tot sosiale dienste, ongelyke voordele en onvoldoende dekking teen die rlsiko's wat die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie inhou. Ten spyte van die tekortkominge van die Suid-Afrik3.anse stelsel van bestaansbeveiliging en die ongelyh:heid daarin gereflehteer, kom dit voor asof fiskale en makro-ekonomiese beperkinge die moontlikhede am die stelsel te omvorm streng beperk: Hierdie beperkinge impliseer, en het aanleiding gegee tot, 'n verlaging van die voordele van die bevoorregte groepe en 'n aanpassing van die aard van voordele, veral in die rigting van goedkoper dienste met steeds hoe opbrengskoerse. Huidige eise en voorsit3ne veranderinge in die sfeer van sosiale beleid. veral ten opsigte van 'n univo3rsele sto::l3o:.l van 3osiale pensioene en spesiale werkskeppingsprogramme, dui egter op die sterkte van die kragte wat to8n8m-:mde "nasionalisering" van sosiale dienste in die hand werk. Hoe die klaarblyklike fish:ale bepalings ta versoen is met die beweerde rasionaliteit van 'n grater rol vir die Suid-Afrikaanse staat in sosiale voorsiening bly 'n vraag. Dit is nodig am die bree perspektief van hierdie studie te evalueer deur in meer detail te kyh: na spesifiek programme en spesifleke oorsah:e van 'n gebrek aan bestaanssekerheid.