Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / Some digitised pages may appear illegible due to the condition of the original hard copy. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Medicine in our country is under severe stress, brought about by internal and external forces that need a response from the medical profession. The profession's attempts and response will fall short unless the profession itself is aligned with the new social ethos and the responses are based on the profession's inherent values. Problem Statement: Medical doctors have always been highly valued in society because of the duty they have when illness and disease set in. As individuals, doctors have fulfilled other important roles in the communities where they work. These include giving advice to young people on career choices, counseling on various matters and provision of material help where there is need. This profession has for a long time been shrouded in mystery, being a trade learnt by a few. All these factors contributed to their social standing increasing phenomenally. There is a view that this has also led to public perceptions that doctors are the rich untouchable elite who have no interest or are unconcerned about problems faced by society. The medical profession faces a challenge that is more significant because of the value placed on it by society. The numerous submissions by the victims of human rights abuses to the Truth and Reconciliation Commission have cast a shadow of doubt on the medical profession for its complicity in these acts. The present government has declared transformation of health care as one of its top priorities. The response of the medical profession to this initiative has so far not led to any significant changes of public perception that the profession is unwilling to participate in the transformation of our society. The challenge and subject of discussion in this thesis therefore is: "What is the ideal role of the medical profession in a transforming South African society?" The medical profession, being the nerve centre of health care, has a big responsibility in social transformation. Doctors stand accused as a collective for failing to protect the human rights of patients and not living up to the standards of ethics required of them when patients' rights were violated. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission record of the hearings into the role of the professional organisations in health is used in this thesis to illustrate how serious society views the medical profession's role in the human rights abuses of the past. Based on the T. R. C's report and the assumption that society traditionally places high value on the medical profession, I conducted a survey among South African doctors to test their attitudes towards a range of policy and transformational issues. The unit of analysis was the medical doctors who are in active practice in South Africa in whatever mode of practice. The survey sought to explore the awareness of the respondents about a range of transformation policy changes and invite their comments on the role that they envisage for the medical profession in the process of transformation of society. There is unfortunately scarcity or a lack of applicable South African literature on this topic thus limiting local material for referencing. The search of international literature only yielded the subject of the study of professional values and not necessarily the role of a medical profession in a transforming society. The medical profession has to re-visit its foundations, analyse its history and map out its future in the context of the South African realities. It must find a way of aligning itself with the new ethos and diverse cultures South Africa possesses. Medicine has its own traditional goals and values derived and adapted from society's diverse cultural value systems. With its national and international networks, the inherent knowledge and skills that it possesses, guided by an ethical code, the Hippocratic Oath that serves as a public promise, it influences policy on the country's health care system - a mechanism that government uses to provide a basic human need. The medical profession therefore has to be responsive to the needs of society as much as society needs to support the profession. This thesis explores the role that the profession should play in a transforming South African society. The argument is that this can only be done through the profession examining its values and aligning itself with broader societal value systems, the moral and social norms. It is further argued that visible realistic commitment by the profession to public health will lead to an improvement in its public image. It is the actions or non-actions of the majority that the public notices. The majority of respondents to the survey have indicated that they approve of the transformation policies in health but that they may differ in the way they were introduced. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die geneeskunde in ons land is onder geweldige druk as gevolg van interne en eksterne faktore en dit is nodig dat die mediese beroep reageer. Dit sal die beroep egter nie help om te reageer indien sy lede hulle nie met die nuwe maatskaplike etos vereenselwig nie en die reaksie op die inherente waardes van die mediese beroep geskoei word nie. Probleemstelling Mediese dokters is nog altyd baie hoog geag deur die gemeenskap as gevolg van die verpligting wat hulle het om na mense om te sien wanneer hulle siek word. In hulle individuele hoedanigheid het dokters ook ander belangrike bydraes tot hulle gemeenskappe gelewer. Dit sluit in: advies aan jong mense oor loopbaankeuses, berading en die verskaffing van finansiele hulp waar nodig. Die beroep as sulks was egter vir baie lank ietwat van 'n misterie omdat dit 'n vakrigting is waarin baie min mense hulle kon bekwaam. Al hierdie faktore het die maatskaplike aansien/waarde van dokters geweldig verhoog. Daar is ook diegene wat van mening is dat hierdie faktore aanleiding gegee het tot die openbare mening dat dokters 'n ryk en onaantasbare elite is en glad nie in die probleme van die gemeenskap belangstel nie. Die etlike voorleggings deur die slagoffers van menseregtevergrype aan die Waarheids- en Versoeningskommissie het ook vrae rondom die beroep se betrokkenheid by sodanige gevalle laat ontstaan. Die huidige regering het die transformasie van gesondheidsorg as een van sy grootste prioriteite verklaar. Die reaksie van die beroep hierop het tot dusver nie tot enige noemenswaardige veranderinge in die openbare mening dat dokters nie bereid is om aan die transformasie van ons gemeenskap deel te neem gelei nie. Wat is die ideale rol van die mediese beroep in die transformasie van die Suid- Afrikaanse gemeenskap? As die senusentrum van gesondheidsorg het die mediese beroep 'n groot verantwoordelikheid in maatskaplike transformasie. Dokters word kollektief beskuldig dat hulle nagelaat het om die menseregte van pasiente te beskerm en nie voldoen het aan die nodige etiese standaarde wat van hulle verwag word in die tyd toe pasienteregte geskend is nie. Die rekord van die verhore van die Waarheids- en Versoeningskommissie oor die rol van professionele gesondheidsorganisasies is vir die doeleindes van hierdie tesis gebruik om te illustreer hoe ernstig die gemeenskap voeloor die mediese beroep se rol in die menseregte vergrype van die verlede. Gegrond op die WVK-verslag en die aanname dat die gemeenskap die mediese beroep hoog ag, het ek 'n meningsopname onder 300 Suid-Afrikaanse dokters gedoen om hulle houding jeens 'n aantal beleids- en transformasiekwessies te toets. Die eenheid van analise was mediese dokters wat in die aktiewe praktyk staan, ongeag hulle praktykgebied. Die opname het gepoog om te bepaal wat die vlak van bewustheid by die respondente oor 'n aantal beleidsveranderinge gerig op transformasie is, en hulle uit te nooi om kommentaar te lewer op die rol wat hulle meen die mediese beroep behoort in die proses te speel. Ongelukkig is daar nie toepaslike Suid-Afrikaanse literatuur oor die onderwerp beskikbaar me. 'n Internasionale literatuursoektog het net studies rondom waardes opgelewer, en nie oor die rol van 'n mediese beroep in die transformasie van 'n gemeenskap nie. Die mediese beroep moet die grondslag van sy wese in oenskou neem, die geskiedenis analiseer en sy toekoms in die konteks van die Suid-Afrikaanse realiteite uitstippel. Die beroep moet 'n manier vind om homself met die nuwe etos en uiteenlopende kulture van Suid-Afrika te vereenselwig. Die geneeskunde het sy eie tradisionele doelwitte en waardes gekry en aangepas vanuit die uiteenlopende kulturele waardestelsels van die gemeenskap. Deur middel van sy nasionale en internasionale netwerke, inherente kennis en vaardighede, die leiding van 'n etiese kode, die Eed van Hippokrates wat as 'n belofte aan die publiek dien, beinvloed die mediese beroep die land se gesondheidsorgstelsel - 'n meganisme van die regering om in 'n basiese menslike behoefte te voorsien. Die mediese beroep moet daarom ingestel wees op die behoeftes van die gemeenskap in dieselfde mate as wat die gemeenskap die beroep behoort te ondersteun. Hierdie tesis ondersoek die rol wat die mediese beroep behoort te vervul in 'n Suid-Afrikaanse gemeenskap waar transformasie besig is om plaas te vind. Daar word geargumenteer dat dit net gedoen kan word indien die beroep sy waardes ondersoek en hom met die breer maatskaplike waardestelsels vereenselwig. Daar word verder geargumenteer dat 'n sigbare realistiese verbintenis van die mediese beroep tot openbare gesondheid tot die verbetering van sy openbare beeld sal lei. Dit is die optrede of nie-optrede van die meerderheid wat die publiek raaksien. Die meerderheid respondente in die meningsopname het aangedui dat hulle die transformasiebeleid vir gesondheid ondersteun, maar dat hulle verskil van die wyse waarop dit in werking gestel is.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Poverty in South Africa’s rural areas is complex and severe, especially among female-headed households. The marginalisation of South Africa’s rural areas over a period of decades resulted in an acute lack of economic opportunities, limited infrastructure and a serious breakdown of social capital. Women living in rural areas are particularly poor in moneymetric terms; they are often illiterate and therefore isolated from economic and social opportunities; and many fall victim to violence in the household. They eke out a meagre existence, based on small-scale agriculture, marginal self-employment or limited wage and remittance income. While such income diversification, combined with the government’s range of development interventions, helps to buffer them against risks such as illness, death and disaster, rural poverty is not just a matter of income and assets. It is also rooted in other disadvantages, such as exclusion, disempowerment and unequal power relations. These all contribute to making poverty a multidimensional phenomenon. The South African government has committed significant resources to poverty intervention over the past 17 years. These interventions, which include social assistance grants, basic municipal services and free water, electricity, schooling and health services, certainly have an impact on the livelihoods of the rural poor, but they do not seem to bring a significant improvement in the standard of living of the most vulnerable people in marginalised areas. There is increasing recognition in the poverty literature that vulnerabilities – of income, health, social exclusion and service delivery – are linked, and that support programmes should focus not only on increasing the poor’s access to resources and assets but also on empowering individuals to use these assets and make decisions. This study investigates the potential of microfinance to address the overlapping vulnerabilities experienced by women in South Africa’s rural areas. It suggests that microfinance has the potential to generate positive shifts in selected indicators of empowerment and well-being among participating women in rural areas. These claims are tested by evaluating data gathered among clients of the Small Enterprise Foundation (SEF) against a conceptual framework. The framework offers a stepwise progression away from vulnerability: acquiring internal skills (empowerment), strengthening social capital, accumulating assets and, eventually, transforming these assets into wealth. Existing datasets, gathered over a period of five years in rural Limpopo and representing both a group that received microfinance from SEF and a control group, were examined. No evidence could be found that the recipients of SEF’s microfinance experienced increased empowerment, but the results did provide evidence that belonging to the group that received microfinance increased the likelihood of experiencing livelihood security and well-being. The findings show that microfinance can, even over the short term, make a difference in people’s ability to smooth their consumption and, as such, provide them with more secure livelihoods. The research also suggests that microfinance assists women in rural areas in constructing and maintaining a portfolio of assets, thus improving well-being among the recipients of microfinance. The scope of the study was confined to measuring the effect of microfinance on selected poverty indicators, and it did not attempt to prove that microfinance alleviates poverty. As such, the research demonstrates that the government’s efforts to reduce rural poverty can be complemented by micro-level interventions such as access to finance. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Armoede in Suid-Afrika se landelike gebiede is kompleks en straf, veral vir huishoudings met vroue aan die hoof. Landelike gebiede is vir dekades lank gemarginaliseer en dit het gelei tot gebrekkige ekonomiese geleenthede, beperkte infrastruktuur en ‘n ineenstorting van sosiale kapitaal. Vroue in Suid-Afrika se landelike gebiede is nie net arm in monetêre terme nie, maar ook dikwels ongelettered, geïsoleerd van ekonomiese en sosiale geleenthede, en dikwels die slagoffers van huishoudelike geweld. Hul huishoudings oorleef deur die skamele bestaan wat hulle maak uit bestaansboerdery, gebrekkige besoldiging en trekarbeider lone. Alhoewel die regering se wydverspreide ontwikkelingshulp daartoe bydra om arm mense te help om risiko’s soos siekte, dood en natuurrampe te kan hanteer, gaan landelike armoede oor veel meer as net inkomste en bates, en sluit dit ook ontmagtiging, uitsluiting en ongelyke magsverdeling in. Al hierdie ontberinge maak armoede ‘n multidimensionele verskynsel. Die Suid-Afrikaanse regering het oor die afgelope 17 jaar aansienlike bronne op armoede verligting gespandeer. Die hulp, wat maatskaplike toelaes, basiese munisipale dienslewering, gratis water, elektrisiteit, opvoeding en gesondheidsdienste insluit, het sonder twyfel die oorlewing van die armes in landelike gebiede meer houdbaar gemaak, maar tog lyk dit nie of die lewenskwaliteit van die mees kwesbare huishoudings in die gemarginaliseerde areas verbeter het nie. Die armoede-literatuur dui daarop dat verskillende vorms van kwesbaarheid – kwesbaarheid in terme van inkomste, gesondheid, sosiale uitsluiting en dienslewering – met mekaar verband hou. Daarom is dit belangrik dat hulpverlening nie alleen vir die armes toegang gee tot hulpbronne en bates nie, maar ook die individue bemagtig om die bronne te gebruik en besluite te neem. Hierdie studie ondersoek die potensiaal van mikrofinansiering om die verskeidenheid sosiale kwesbaarhede wat vroue in Suid Afrika se landelike gebiede ervaar aan te spreek. Die studie voer aan dat mikrofinansiering kan lei tot positiewe veranderinge in geselekteerde bemagtigings- en welvaarts-indikatore onder deelnemende vroue. Data wat versamel is onder die kliente van die Small Enterprise Foundation (SEF) word gebruik om hierdie aansprake te evalueer. Die studie is gedoen teen die agtergrond van ‘n konseptuele model, wat voorhou dat armoede en kwesbaarheid oorkom kan word as ‘n trapsgewyse program gevolg word – deur eerstens kundigheid (bemagtiging) te verkry, daarna sosiale kapitaal te versterk, bates op te bou en uiteindelik die bates in rykdom te omskep beweeg die vroue, en hul huishoudings, al verder weg van hulle aanvanklike kwesbaarheid. Bestaande data, versamel oor ‘n tydperk van vyf jaar in die landelike gebiede van Limpopo is geanaliseer. Die data verteenwoordig twee groepe – ‘n groep wat mikrofinansiering ontvang het en ‘n kontrole groep. Geen empiriese bewyse kon gevind word dat die vroue wat mikrofinansiering van SEF ontvang het, bemagtig is nie. Die resultate het wel daarop gedui dat vroue wat mikrofinansiering ontvang na alle waarskynlikheid meer bestaans-sekerheid het en dat hulle welvaart verbeter het. Die bevindinge dui daarop dat mikrofinansiering, selfs oor die kort termyn, ‘n wesenlike verskil kan maak in die vermoë van kwesbare vroue om hulle verbruik, oor tyd, beter te bestuur en sodoende bestaans-sekuriteit te verseker. Die navorsing toon ook dat mikrofinansiering vroue in landelike gebiede kan help om ‘n portefeulje van bates te skep en te handhaaf, wat bydra tot groter welvaart. Hierdie studie het die impak van mikrofinansiering op geselekteerde armoede indikatore geevalueer, en het nie gepoog om te bewys dat mikrofinansiering armoede verlig nie. Sodoende dui die navorsing daarop dat die regering se pogings om armoede te verlig kan baat vind by mikrovlakintervensies soos mikrofinansiering.

Thesis (PhD (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLSIH ABSTRACT: At the time of South Africa‟s transition to democracy the school system was envisaged to be a powerful vehicle for nation-building and transformation. The chronic low performance of the South African school system has subsequently become the subject of widespread public concern. This thesis examines the distribution of cognitive achievement amongst South African children and the factors influencing it, especially socio-economic status, and asks what the implications of this are for future economic development. The methodologies employed are predominantly quantitative as various sources of data are examined in order to collect evidence pertaining to the question above. Chapter 1 lays down a conceptual framework for understanding the role of schooling in economic development. The point is made that although education is often envisaged as a vehicle for development and mobility out of poverty, the home socio-economic status of children impacts significantly on their educational outcomes. Chapter 2 reviews recent and relevant literature to establish main currents of thinking regarding the influence of socio-economic status on educational outcomes. Chapter 3 follows this with an empirical examination of the influence of socio-economic status on reading achievement amongst South African children. The results indicate that the relationship between socio-economic status and educational achievement in South Africa is particularly strong by international standards. Furthermore, the historical divisions within the school system remain key to understanding continuing inequalities in educational outcomes. The socio-economic status of students is crucial in determining which part of the school system students enter; then for those entering the historically disadvantaged system the chances of achieving high quality educational outcomes are small, regardless of their home background. The main priority in the latter part of chapter 3 and thereafter is the attempt to identify factors that improve cognitive achievement, given the socio-economic context of schools and their students. In chapter 4, this search is taken up by examining a rich collection of data regarding school and teacher practices in South African primary schools. In chapter 5 this is done by analysing trends in the ability of high schools to convert demonstrated grade 8 achievement into matric outcomes. An additional perspective is provided through a comparison of the performance of South Africa‟s independent and public schools in Chapter 6. The final chapter summarises the results from these various approaches and highlights several key areas on which, it is recommended, attempts to improve South Africa‟s schools should focus. These include the management of school resources, teacher work ethic, time management and planning within schools, curriculum coverage, the accuracy of assessment and feedback to students, and parent commitment to education. Improving these areas within the large and struggling part of the South African school system will be decisive for the country‟s economic development. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ten tye van Suid-Afrika se demokratiese oorgang is die skoolstelsel as ʼn sterk instrument vir nasiebou en transformasie gesien. Die kroniese swak vertoning van die Suid-Afrikaanse skoolstelsel het sedertdien tot wye openbare besorgdheid gelei. Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die verdeling van kognitiewe prestasie onder Suid-Afrikaanse kinders en die faktore wat dit beïnvloed, veral sosio-ekonomiese status, asook die implikasies daarvan vir toekomstige ekonomiese ontwikkeling. Die metodologie wat gebruik word, is hoofsaaklik kwantitatief, want verskeie databronne word ondersoek om getuienis in te win rakende bogenoemde vraagstuk. Hoofstuk 1 stel ʼn konseptuele raamwerk daar om die rol van onderwys in ekonomiese ontwikkeling te verstaan. Die punt word gemaak dat, alhoewel onderwys dikwels as ʼn instrument vir ontwikkeling en uitstyging uit armoede gesien word, die sosio-ekonomiese status van kinders se huislike omgewing hulle onderwysuitkomste beduidend beïnvloed. Hoofstuk 2 bied ʼn oorsig van onlangse en relevante literatuur om die hoofstrome van denke oor die invloed van sosio-ekonomiese status op onderwysuitkomste aan te dui. Hoofstuk 3 volg dit op met „n empiriese ontleding van die invloed van sosio-ekonomiese status op leesvaardigheid onder Suid-Afrikaanse kinders. Die resultate dui daarop dat die verband tussen sosio-ekonomiese status en onderwysuitkomste volgens internasionale standaarde in Suid-Afrika besonder sterk is. Verder is die historiese verdelingslyne binne die skoolstelsel van sleutelbelang om voortgesette ongelykheid in onderwysuitkomste te verstaan. Die sosio-ekonomiese status van studente bepaal grootliks tot watter deel van die skoolstelsel kinders toegang kry. Vir daardie kinders wat in die histories-afgeskeepte deel van die stelsel beland, is die waarskynlikheid van hoë gehalte onderwys klein, ongeag hulle gesinsagtergrond. Die klem in die laaste gedeelte van hoofstuk 3 en daarna val daarop om faktore te identifiseer wat kognitiewe uitkomste verbeter, gegewe die sosio-ekonomiese konteks van skole en studente. In hoofstuk 4 word hierdie speurtog voortgesit deur ʼn ryk verskeidenheid data rakende skole en onderwysers se praktyke in Suid-Afrikaanse laerskole te ondersoek. In hoofstuk 5 word dit gedoen deur ʼn analise van die vermoë van hoërskole om graad 8-vlak prestasie in graad matriekuitkomste te omskep. ʼn Vergelyking van die prestasie van Suid-Afrika se onafhanklike skole met openbare skole in hoofstuk 6 bied verdere perspektief hierop. Die finale hoofstuk som die bevindinge van hierdie verskillende benaderings op en belig sekere sleutelaspekte waarop pogings om Suid-Afrika se skole te verbeter klem behoort te lê. Dit sluit in bestuur van skoolhulpbronne, onderwysers se werksetiek, tydsbestuur en beplanning binne skole, dekking van die kurrikulum, die akkuraatheid van assessering en terugvoer daaroor aan studente, en ouers se betrokkenheid by onderwys. Verbetering op hierdie gebiede binne die groot, sukkelende deel van die Suid-Afrikaanse skoolstelsel sal deurslaggewend wees vir die land se ekonomiese ontwikkeling.

Dissertation (PhD) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Lucas critique states that if expectations are not explicitly dealt with, conventional econometric models are inappropriate for policy analyses, as their coefficients are not policy invariant. The inclusion of rational expectations in ·conventional model building has been the most common response to this critique. The concept of rational expectations has received several interpretations. In numerous studies, these expectations are associated with model consistent expectations in the sense that expectations and model solutions are identical. To derive a solution, these models require unique algorithms and assumptions regarding their terminal state, in particular when forward-looking expectations are present. An alternative that avoids these issues is the concept of weak rational expectations, which emphasises that expectation errors should not be systematic. Expectations are therefore formed on the basis of an underlying structure, but full knowledge of the model is not essential. The accommodation of this type of rational expectations is accomplished by means of an explicit specification of an expectations equation consistent with the macro econometric model's broad structure. The estimation of coefficients relating to expectations is achieved through an Instrumental Variable approach. In South Africa, monetary policy has been consistent and transparent in line with the recommendations of the De Kock Commission. This allows the modelling of the policy instrument of the South African Reserve Bank, i.e. the Bank rate, by means of a policy reaction function. Given this transparency in monetary policy, the accommodation of expectations of the Bank rate is essential in modelling the full impact of monetary policy and in avoiding the Lucas critique. This is accomplished through weak rational expectations, based on the reaction function of the Reserve Bank. The accommodation of expectations of a policy instrument also allows the modelling of anticipated and unanticipated policies as alternative assumptions regarding the expectations process can be made during simulations. Conventional econometric models emphasise the demand side of the economy, with equations focusing on private consumption, investment, exports and imports and possibly changes in inventories. In this study, particular emphasis in the model specification is also placed on the impact of monetary policy on government debt and debt servicing costs. Other dimensions of the model include the modelling of the money supply and balance of payments, short- and long-term interest rates, domestic prices, the exchange rate, the wage rate and employment as well as weakly rational expectations of inflation and the Bank rate. The model has been specified and estimated by usmg concepts such as cointegration and Error Correction modelling. Numerous tests, including the assessment of the Root Mean Square Percentage Error, have been employed to test the adequacy of the model. Similarly, tests are carried out to ensure weak rational expectations. Numerous simulations are carried out with the model and the results are compared to relevant alternative studies. The simulation results show that the reduction of inflation by means of only monetary policy could impose severe costs on the economy in terms of real sector volatility. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Lucas-kritiek beweer dat konvensionele ekonometriese modelle nie gebruik kan word vir beleidsontleding nie, aangesien dit nie voorsiening maak vir die verandering in verwagtings wanneer beleidsaanpassings gemaak word nie. Die insluiting van rasionele verwagtinge in konvensionele ekonometriese modelle is die mees algemene reaksie op die Lukas-kritiek. Ten einde die praktiese insluiting van rasionele verwagtings III ekonometriese modelbou te vergemaklik, word in hierdie studie gebruik gemaak van sogenaamde "swak rasionele verwagtings", wat slegs vereis dat verwagtingsfoute me sistematies moet wees nie. Die beraming van die koëffisiënte van die verwagtingsveranderlikes word gedoen met behulp van die Instrumentele Veranderlikes-benadering. Monetêre beleid in Suid-Afrika was histories konsekwent en deursigtig in ooreenstemming met die aanbevelings van die De Kock Kommissie. Die beleidsinstrument van die Suid-Afrikaanse Reserwebank, naamlik die Bankkoers, kan gevolglik gemodelleer word met behulp van 'n beleidsreaksie-funksie. Ten einde die Lukas-kritiek te akkommodeer, moet verwagtings oor die Bankkoers egter ingesluit word wanneer die volle impak van monetêre beleid gemodelleer word. Dit word vermag met die insluiting van swak rasionele verwagtings, gebaseer op die reaksie-funksie van die Reserwebank. Sodoende kan die impak van verwagte en onverwagte beleidsaanpassings gesimuleer word. Konvensionele ekonometriese modelle beklemtoon die vraagkant van die ekonomie, met vergelykings vir verbruik, investering, invoere, uitvoere en moontlik die verandering in voorrade. In hierdie studie word daar ook klem geplaas op die impak van monetêre beleid op staatskuld en die koste van staatsskuld. Ander aspekte wat gemodelleer word, is die geldvoorraad en betalingsbalans, korttermyn- en langtermynrentekoerse, binnelandse pryse, die wisselkoers, loonkoerse en indiensneming, asook swak rasionele verwagtings van inflasie en die Bankkkoers. Die model is gespesifiseer en beraam met behulp van ko-integrasie en die gebruik van lang-en korttermynvergelykings. Die gebruiklike toetse is uitgevoer om die toereikendheid van die model te toets. Verskeie simulasies is uitgevoer met die model en die resultate is vergelyk met ander relevante studies. Die gevolgtrekking word gemaak dat die verlaging van inflasie deur alleenlik gebruik te maak van monetêre beleid 'n swaar las op die ekonomie kan lê in terme van volatiliteit in die reële sektor.

Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A number of themes run through this dissertation, the first of which is the importance of money in facilitating decentralised decision making by lowering transaction costs and by contributing to the definition and maintenance of property rights. A second (and more melancholy) theme is that government control of money has often been poor, and systematically so since the War. This leads to a third theme, the combined force of economic theory and central bank practice of the last quarter of a century or so has led to clearer limits to the discretionary power of government in the management of money. These limits are increasingly expressed as contingent rules containing explicit targets for monetary policy, for example an inflation target. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate inflation targeting both normatively and positively as a framework for monetary policy. A set of criteria from the New Institutional Economics literature is used to evaluate the extent to which inflation targeting captures the lessons from the three themes mentioned above, in both normative and positive dimensions. The practical importance of the thesis is in the application of this institutional evaluation to the inflation the targeting regime of recent vintage in South Africa, which leads to a number of policy recommendations. Part I consists of three chapters of which the first two are mainly abstract and concerned with the theory of the New Institutional Economics. The third chapter has a historical character and considers the history of and recent trends in monetary policy. These trends are consistent with adopting an inflation target as a framework for monetary policy. The second part of the thesis starts with a theoretical consideration of monetary policy rules in chapter 4, and is followed by a discussion of one such rule, inflation targeting, in chapter 5. This discussion starts with the theory of inflation targeting, but proceeds to details of actual inflation targeting central banks, with special reference the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The history of anti-cyclical monetary in South Africa is also considered empirically to determine whether inflation targeting would represent an important new direction on this issue. Chapter 6 follows with a literature review of the empirical record of the first decade of inflation targeting internationally. The seventh chapter is the core of the thesis and provides the institutional evaluation of inflation targeting. This evaluation is applied to the present inflation targeting regime in South Africa, and leads to recommended policy reforms. These policy reforms are mapped on a two-dimensional chart that indicates their priority and the expected cost of the associated institutional reform. Additionally a new econometric methodology is used in chapter 7 to gauge the contribution of monetary policy to the more stable economy of recent years. In part 3 the focus of the thesis turns to certain political economy considerations that arise from the independence of the central banks (as is typical for inflation targeting central banks). Chapter 8 considers the issue of central bank independence and is followed by an application of constitutional economics to inflation targeting in chapter 9. Whereas the bulk of the dissertation is concerned with the positive evaluation of inflation targeting, chapter 9 attempts a normative evaluation using the Pareto-Wicksell criterion. Both the positive and normative assessments in this thesis support the case for inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy, / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie proefskrif is 'n institusionele evaluering van inflasieteikening as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid. Vir hierdie doel is 'n stel kriteria saamgestel uit die literatuur van die Nuwe Institusionele Ekonomie met die oog op 'n positiewe en 'n normatiewe evaluering van inflasieteikening as 'n raamwerk vir monetêre beleid. Die praktiese waarde van die tesis lê in die stel institusionele hervormings wat voorgestel word om die stelsel van inflasieteikening in Suid- Afrika meer doeltreffend en normatief meer gewens te maak. Etlike temas loop deur die proefskrif, maar veral drie verdien vermelding in die opsomming, naamlik: eerstens, die belangrikheid van die monetêre stelsel om gedesentraliseerde besluitneming te vergemaklik en as bydraende faktor in die vestiging van eiendomsreg. Tweedens, hoewel moderne owerhede tipies 'n monopolie op die plaaslike geldeenheid bestuur, het die monetêre bestuur in die moderne tydgewrig (veral sdert WOII) veel te wense oorgelaat. Hierdie wanbestuur was boonop telkens sistematies. Derdens, beide teoretiese ontwikkelings en die praktyk van sentrale bankwese het die afgelope kwarteeu aanleiding gegee tot 'n terugrol van die regering se rol in monetêre beleid en die toenemende gebruik van sistematiese beleidsreëls as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid. Die eerste deel van die proefskrif beskou die teorie van die Nuwe Institusionele Ekonomie in hoofstukke 1 en 2. Die derde hoofstuk is histories van aard en beskou die geskiedenis van moderne monetêre beleid en die tendense wat daaruit afgelei kan word. Afdeling twee fokus meer nougeset op inflasieteikens en begin met die teorie van beleidsreëls in hoofstuk 4. Die vyfde hoofstuk volg met 'n interpretasie van inflasieteikens as een van die sogenaamde terugvoerreëls vir monetêre beleid wat sedert die laat sewentigerjare ontwikkel is en sedertdien gewild geword het. 'n Toenemende aantal ontwikkelde- en ontwikkelende-lande het gedurende die afgelope dekade (en langer) inflasieteikens as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid aangeneem. Hoofstuk ses evalueer die empiriese rekord van hierdie kort geskiedenis. Die sewende hoofstuk is die kern van die tesis en bevat die institusionele evaluering van die inflasieteikens aan die hand van die kriteria saamgestel in hoofstuk 1, met spesifieke toepassing op Suid-Afrika. 'n Nuwe ekonometriese tegniek word ook in hoofstuk 7 gebruik om die bydrae van monetêre beleid tot die meer stabiele ekonome van onlangse tydgewrig te kwantifiseer. Die netelige institusionele kwessie van onafhanklik sentrale banke word rue 111 hoofstuk 7 bespreek rue, maar staan oor tot deel drie van die proefskrif waar die politieke-ekonomie van inflasietekens bespreek word. Hoofstuk 8 handel dan oor onafhanklike sentrale banke, met toepassing op die SARB, terwyl hoofstuk 9 'n toepassing is van die konstiutionele ekonomie op inflasieteikening. Hoofstukke 8 en 9 bied derhalwe verdere positiewe evaluering van die instrument-onafhanklike SARB onder inflasieteikens, asook 'n normatiewe evaluering van inflasieteikens aan die hand van die Pareto-Wicks ell kriteria wat uit hoofstuk 2 spruit. Beide die normatiewe en positiewe evaluerings ondersteun die saak ten gunste van inflasieteikens as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid.

Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: At the beginning of the 1990s, the South African textile industry faced many challenges, including the dismantling of protective barriers, requiring firms to adapt to increased foreign competition in the local and global markets. Many opted for investment in new technology. This study set out to analyse the behaviour of South African textile firms in the process of introducing new technology in pursuit of competitiveness. The analysis was conducted following the evolutionary approach in economics (discussedin Chapter 2). This approach incorporates time, pays attention to the deliberate actions of firms to shape their environment, as well as persistent diversity amongst firms. This study asked two broad questions. First, what were the major trends in textiles regarding technology, demand-side factors, the trade regime, etc.? (Chapter3). Chapter 3 sets the scene for the rest of the study in that it illustrates how the competitive environment of textile firms has changed and argues that the aggregate picture is often not a true reflection of the dynamics of the industry, thus paving the way for micro-level analysis of firms and institutions. Secondly, what were the subsequent responsesby textile firms and institutions to these changes?This question is investigated for the global textile industry (Chapter 3), the South African, Italian and Mauritian textile industries (Chapters 4 and 5), and for specific firms in the South African textile industry (Chapters 6 and 7). Institutions play an important role in shaping the development of industries, just as firms in an industry may influence institutions. The role of institutions in the South African textile industry is considered in Chapter 5, which serves as background to Chapter 6, where we enquire about the significance of these institutions from the firms' perspective. The central focus of Chapter 6, however, is on the processof acquisition and implementation of new technology in South African textile firms. The implications of this process for other strategies, organisational processes, competencies, and routines are also analysed. Basedon the outcome of the firm-level analysis, three categories of firms are distinguished, namely leading firms, moderate adapters, and laggards. Using the characteristics of the firms in each category, we select three firms to pursue further in case studies. Chapter 7 presents the results of these case studies. Although the main focus of our study is on the implementation of new technology, we want to illustrate in this chapter how the successof this process critically depends on factors such as an appropriate organisational structure, the competencies of management and labour, as well as the institutions in the industry. We further highlight the important role that individuals, such as entrepreneurs, play in shaping the paths of firms, their relationships with institutions, suppliers, and customers, and even the structure of the industry. We conclude that investing in new technology is a necessary but not sufficient strategy for successful rejuvenation of firms in a mature industry. Complementary changes, such as in organisational structure, use of human resources, and supply-chain relations, are of crucial importance, too (Chapter 8). / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Aan die begin van die 1990s het die Suid-Afrikaanse tekstielbedryf menige uitdagings (soos die aftakeling van beskermingsmaatreëls) in die gesig gestaar, wat hulle gedwing het om meer doeltreffend in die plaaslike en globale markte te word. Hierdie studie ontleed die gedrag van ondernemings in die tekstielbedryf in die proses van verkryging en implementering van nuwe tegnologie ten einde mededingingendheid te bevorder. Die studie volg die evolusionêre benadering, wat tyd inbou en aandag skenk aan doelbewuste aksies deur maatskappye om hulle omgewing te beïnvloed, asook volgehoue diversiteit tussen maatskappye (Hoofstuk 2). Die studie het twee breë vrae gestel. Eerstens, is daar gekyk na die belangrikste tendense t.O.V. tegnologiese veranderinge, vraagkantfaktore, handelsregulasies, ensovoorts, in die tekstielbedryf (Hoofstuk 3). Hoofstuk 3 skets die struktuur vir die res van die studie deur die veranderinge in die omgewing waarbinne tekstielmaatskappye meeding uit te lig, maar ook deur aan te toon dat die globale prentjie nie altyd 'n ware refleksie van die dinamiek van 'n nywerheid is nie, omdat soveel diversiteit daardeur verbloem kan word. Hierdie argument is dus ten gunste van verdere mikrovlak analise van ondernemings en instellings. Tweedens word gevra watter reaksies op hierdie veranderinge daar van ondernemings en instellings se kant af was. Hierdie vraag word ondersoek vir die globale tekstielbedryf (Hoofstuk 3), die Suid-Afrikaanse en Italiaanse tekstielbedrywe, asook die bedryf in Mauritius (Hoofstuk 4 en 5). Verder word die vraag vir spesifieke Suid-Afrikaanse ondernemings in Hoofstukke 6 en 7 bestudeer. Instellings speel 'n belangrike rol in die ontwikkeling van nywerhede, net soos ondernemings in nywerhede ook instellings kan beïnvloed. Die rol van instellings in die Suid-Afrikaanse tekstielbedryf word in Hoofstuk 5 behandel, deels as agtergrond vir Hoofstuk 6 waar die belangrikheid van instellings uit die ondernemings se oogpunt van naderby beskou word. Die hooffokus van Hoofstuk 6 is egter die verkryging en implementering van nuwe tegnologie in Suid-Afrikaanse tekstielmaatskappye. Die implikasies wat hierdie proses vir ander strategieë, organisatoriese prosesse, vaardighede en roetines van die ondernemings inhou, word ook bestudeer. Voortvloeiend uit die ondernemingsvlakanalise, word drie kategorieë van ondernemings onderskei, naamlik leiers, middelmatige aanpassers en sloerders. Op grond van die kenmerke van die ondernemings in elkeen van die kategorieë is drie maatskappye vir verdere ontleding in gevallestudies gekies (Hoofstuk 7). Alhoewel die hooffokus van die studie die implementering van nuwe tegnologie is, illustreer ons ook in Hoofstuk 7 dat die proses sterk beïnvloed word deur faktore soos die organisatoriese struktuur, die vaardighede van die bestuur en werkers, sowel as die instellings in die industrie. Ons beklemtoon verder die belangrike rol wat individue, soos entrepreneurs, speel t.O.V. die ontwikkelingstrajek van ondernemings, sowel as die verwantskappe wat ondernemings met verskaffers, instellings en klante opbou. Aksies deur individue beïnvloed in die finale instansie ook die struktuur van die industrie. Ons gevolgtrekking is dat investering in nuwe tegnologie 'n noodsaaklike maar nie voldoende strategie vir die suksesvolle vernuwing van ondernemings in 'n volwasse nywerheid is nie. Komplementêre veranderinge, byvoorbeeld in die organisatoriese struktuur, die benutting van arbeid, en verhoudings in die verskaffingsnetwerk, is ook van kernbelang.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 1997. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Standard financial literature contains various explanations for the unique role of deposit-taking intermediaries in an economy. None of these reasons adequately explains the extensive degree of banking regulation evident in practice. The nature of a deposit, which guarantees capital repayment independent of bank performance, uniquely incentivises banks to be exposed to financial risks. In the absence of appropriate regulation, banks may be tempted to assume an unacceptably high level of risk that could ultimately result in bank failure. Thus, the regulation of banking risks is justified in terms of the public interest theory whereby banking regulation seeks to avoid the market imperfections arising from informational asymmetries and "domino" externalities associated with bank failure. Accordingly, the rationale of banking regulation lies in the protection of consumers and in preserving the stability of the financial system. Direct monetary controls, on the other hand, impact adversely on the risk-management activities of banks. The framework utilised to analyse and compare banking regulation consists of three broad categories namely: preventative regulation, protective regulation and monetary requirements. Preventative or prudential regulation is aimed at managing the levels of risks assumed by banks. This form of regulation relates to entry requirements; limitations on certain business activities; the disclosure of risk-related information; the adequacy of capital resources; portfolio restrictions on risk assets; and the sufficiency of liquidity. Protective regulation is concerned with the immediate protection of depositors and maintenance of overall financial stability once a bank has failed. lt consists of crisis management measures and deposit insurance schemes. Direct, and hence inappropriate, monetary requirements are variations in reserve asset requirements, as well as interest rate and credit controls. The banking systems of South Africa, the United Kingdom and Germany were chosen to perform a comparative analysis of financial regulation. The London financial markets are mature and a large variety of banks are regulated in a flexible manner by the Bank of England. By contrast, the strictly regulated German banks dominate their domestic financial system. South Africa is a hybrid of the former systems with a modern banking industry operating in well developed financial markets and supervised according to advanced risk-management considerations. The analysis of preventative and protective regulation in all three financial systems indicates that banking regulation is indeed concerned with the regulation of banking risks. The efforts of the Bank for International Settlements to harmonise regulation across domestic financial systems has contributed significantly to improved regulatory techniques for the management of these risks. None of the three systems make use of direct monetary requirements which suggest awareness of the costs associated with such regulation. A number of recommendations are made to improve financial regulation in South Africa: extension of regulatory coverage to include other types of financial intermediaries who also engage in risky activities; further relaxation of exchange control regulations which restrict the foreign exchange risk management; the adoption of a formal deposit protection scheme; increased consolidated supervision by a single regulatory authority with executive powers; further deregulatory measures in instances where regulations are not appropriate from a risk-management perspective; and re-regulation to the extent that the risk-management activities can be regulated more efficiently. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die finansiele literatuur bevat verskeie verklarings vir die unieke rol wat depositonemende instellings in 'n ekonomie vervul. Geeneen van die redes verskaf 'n bevredigende verklaring vir die wye omvang van bankregulasies in die praktyk nie. Die aard van 'n deposita is sodanig dat die terugbetaling van die kapitaalsom deur 'n bank gewaarborg word, onafhanklik van die winsprestasie van die bank. Gevolglik het banke die unieke eienskap om hulself aan finansiele risikos bloat te stel. Sander gepaste regulering sou banke moontlik daartoe geneigd wees om oormatige hoe risikovlakke na te streef wat tot bankmislukking kan lei. Die regulering van bankrisikos vind dus bestaansreg in die teorie van openbare belang, d.w.s. dat regulering die potensiele markmislukkings, wat voortspruit uit asimmetriese inligting en "domino" eksternaliteite, kan voorkom. Die rasionaal van bankregulering is die beskerming van verbruikers, asook die handhawing van 'n stabiele finansiele stelsel. Direkte monetere beheermaatreels, daarenteen, het 'n ongunstige uitwerking op die bestuur van risikos deur banke. Die raamwerk waarbinne bankregulering ontleed en vergelyk word, bestaan uit drie kategoriee, naamlik voorkomende regulering, beskermende regulering en monetere vereistes. Voorkomende regulering is daarop gemik om die risikos waaraan banke blootgestel is te bestuur. Sodanige regulering verwys na toelatingsvereistes, beperkings op sekere sake-aktiwiteite, die openbaarmaking van risiko-verwante inligting, die toereikendheid van kapitaalhulpbronne, beperkings ten opsigte van baterisikos en voldoende likiditeit. Beskermende regulering is gemoeid met die beskerming van deposante en bestaan uit krisisbeheermaatreels en depositoversekeringskemas. Direkte (en gevolglik ontoepaslike) monetere vereistes bestaan uit veranderlike reserwebatevereistes, asook rentekoers- en kredietbeheermaatreels. Die bankstelsels van Suid Afrika, die Verenigde Koningkryk en Duitsland is gekies vir 'n vergelykende analise van finansiele regulering. Die finansiele markte in Londen is hoogs ontwikkeld en 'n groat verskeidenheid en aantal banke word op 'n pragmatiese wyse deur die Bank of England gereguleer. In direkte teenstelling daarmee word die Duitse banke, wat hul binnelandse finansiele markte domineer, onderwerp aan 'n streng formele toesighoudingstelsel. Die SuidAfrikaanse finansiele stelsel bevat elemente van beide bogenoemde stelsels, by wyse van 'n moderne banksektor, wat funksioneer in goed ontwikkelde finansiele markte en gereguleer word ooreenkomstig gevorderde risikobestuursbeginsels. Die analise van voorkomende en beskermende regulering in die drie finansiele stelsels, bevestig dat bankregulering inderdaad afgestem is op die regulering van finansiele risikos. Die pogings van die Bank van lnternasiona~e Vereffeninge om die regulasies in finansiele stelsels internasionaal met mekaar in orreenstemming te bring het wesenlik hiertoe bygedra. Die vermyding van direkte monetere vereistes dui verder daarop dat toesighoudende owerhede bewus is van die nadele van sodanige regulering. 'n Aantal aanbevelings word gemaak, naamlik: meer omvattende regulering ten einde ander finansiele instellings wat ook finansiele risikos bestuur, te dek; verdere verslappings van valutabeheermaatreels wat tans die bestuur van wisselkoersrisiko beperk; die totstandkoming van 'n formele depositoversekeringstelsel; 'n groter mate van gekonsolideerde toesighouding; verdere deregulering in gevalle waar regulasies vanuit 'n risikobestuursoogpunt nie wenslik is nie; en her-regulering in die mate waartoe die risikobestuurspraktyke meer effektief gereguleer kan word.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The restoration of natural capital has ecological, hydrological and economic benefits. Are these benefits greater than the costs of restoration when compared across a range of dissimilar sites? This study examines the impact of restoration at eight case study sites distributed throughout South Africa. The benefits of restoration include improved grazing values and crop yields, improvements in water yield and quality, soil carbon improvements, wild products, lumber, fuelwood and electricity. The impact of restoration on all forms of natural capital (i.e. cultivated, replenishable, renewable and non-renewable) is therefore quantified. The costs of restoration include depreciation on capital expenditure, labour costs, equipment and bond refinancing costs. The literature review done during this study presents three frameworks. The first framework classifies social science using the classification scheme of Burrell and Morgan. It shows that system dynamics modelling and neoclassical economics share the same epistemological and ontological characteristics, both of these fall within the naturalistic paradigm, which also characterises most of scientific research. System dynamics modelling and neoclassical economics, however, digress in the Flood and Jackson classification scheme, which is the second framework for classifying social science. Neoclassical economics is characterised by a small number of elements and few interactions between the elements. Systems dynamics modelling, on the other hand, is characterised by a large number of elements and many interactions between the elements. The nature-freedom ground motive is subject to a number of criticisms, including the fact that it introduces dualistic thinking into the analysis, as well as that it does not adequately address normative or moral issues. The framework of Dooyeweerd, the third framework, is presented as a means of transcending the nature-freedom ground motive. Although the nature-freedom ground motive is largely utilised in this study, the analysis does transcend the traditional economic approach in a number of areas. These include, for example, a focus on transdisciplinary methods, disequilibria, adopting a case study approach, and empirical estimation instead of theoretical models. The restoration case studies in this study are examples of individual complex systems. Eight system dynamics models are developed to model interactions between the economic, ecological and hydrological components of each of the case studies. The eight system dynamics models are then used to inform a risk analysis process that culminates in a portfolio mapping exercise. This portfolio mapping exercise is then used to identify the characteristics and features of the different case study sites based on the risk profile of each sites. This study is the first known application of system dynamics, risk analysis and portfolio mapping to an environmental restoration project. This framework could potentially be used by policymakers confronted with budgetary constraints to select and prioritise between competing restoration projects. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die restorasie van natuurlike kapitaal het ekologiese, hidrologiese en ekonomiese voordele. Maar is hierdie voordele groter as die kostes verbonde aan restorasie wanneer dit oor verskeie ongelyksoortige terreine vergelyk word? Hierdie studie bestudeer die impak van restorasie op agt verskillende studie terreine versprei regoor Suid-Afrika. Die voordele van restorasie sluit die volgende in: beter weiding waardes en oes opbrengste, verbeterde water lewering en water kwaliteit, verbetering van grondkoolstof, wilde produkte, hout, brandstofhout en elektrisiteit. Die impak van restorasie op alle vorme van natuurlike kapitaal (gekultiveerd, aanvulbaar, hernubaar en nie-hernubaar) is daarom gekwantifiseer. Die kostes van restorasie sluit in ‘n vermindering in kapitaal uitgawes, arbeidskoste, toerusting en verband herfinansieringskoste. Die literatuurstudie hou drie raamwerke voor. Die eerste raamwerk klassifiseer sosiale wetenskappe volgens die Burrel en Morgan klassifikasie skema. Dit wys daarop dat dinamiese stelsel modellering en neoklassieke ekonomie dieselfde epistemologiese en ontologiese eienskappe deel; beide val binne die naturalistiese paradigma, wat dan ook meeste wetenskaplike navorsing tipeer. Stelseldinamiese modellering en neoklassieke ekonomie wyk egter af na die Flood and Jackson klassifikasie skema, wat die tweede raamwerk is waarvolgens sosiale wetenskappe geklassifiseer word. Neoklassieke ekonomie word gekenmerk aan 'n klein aantal elemente en 'n beperkte hoeveelheid interaksie. Stelseldinamiese modellering het egter 'n groot aantal elemente met veel meer interaksies tussen hierdie elemente. Die natuur-vryheid grondmotief is onderworpe aan 'n aantal punte van kritiek, insluitende die feit dat dit dualistiese denke in analise inbring. Verder spreek dit ook nie voldoende die normatiewe of morele kwessies aan nie. Die raamwerk van Dooyeweerd, wat dan die derde raamwerk is, word voorgestel as 'n wyse waarop die natuur-vryheid grond-motief getransendeer kan word. Alhoewel die natuur-vryheid grondmotief grootliks gebruik word in hierdie studie, transendeer die analise die tradisionele ekonomiese benadering op 'n aantal gebiede. Hierdie gebiede sluit die volgende in: 'n fokus op transdissiplinere metodes, onewewigtigheid, 'n gevallestudie benadering, en empiriese skatting in plaas van teoretiese modelle. Die restorasie gevallestudies wat in hierdie studie gebruik word is voorbeelde van individuele komplekse sisteme. Agt dinamiese stelsel modelle word ontwikkel om die interaksies tussen ekonomiese, ekologiese en hidrologiese komponente in elke gevallestudie te modelleer. Hierdie agt stelseldinamiese modelle word dan gebruik in 'n risiko analise proses wat uitloop op 'n portefeulje plot oefening. Hierdie portefeulje plot oefening word dan gebruik om eienskappe en kenmerke van verskeie gevallestudie terreine te identifiseer gebaseer op die risiko profiel van elke terrein. Hierdie studie is die eerste bekende toepassing van dinamiese stesels, risiko analise en portefeulje plot tot 'n omgewingsrestorasie projek. Hierdie raamwerk kan potensieël gebruik word deur beleidskrywers wat met begrotings beperkinge gekonfronteer word om tussen restorasie projekte te kies en om hulle te prioritiriseer.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In order to evaluate the extent to which South Africa achieve the objectives of poverty and inequality reduction as well as job creation, up-to-date and reliable data are required. Since the transition, various survey data have been commonly used for these analyses, namely Census, Community Survey (CS) 2007, Income and Expenditure Survey (IES), October Household Survey (OHS), Labour Force Survey (LFS), Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), General Household Survey (GHS), Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development (PSLSD), National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) and All Media Products Survey (AMPS). However, these datasets are not fully comparable, due to differences in the sampling design, sample size, questionnaire structure, methodology to derive labour market status, as well as the way the income and expenditure information was collected. Hence, this dissertation begins by analysing these issues in each survey in Chapter 2. With regard to the income and expenditure information, it was collected differently in the surveys: the recall method was used in all surveys except IES 2005/2006, the only survey that adopted the diary method; respondents were asked to report the actual amount in some surveys but only asked to declare the relevant interval in others; for the former approach, respondents could either declare the single estimate amount or amounts for sub-categories that were then aggregated; for interval data, various methods can be used to determine the amount in each interval. Thus, Chapter 3 begins by discussing the merits and drawbacks of these approaches, as well as how they would affect the reliability and comparability of income and expenditure variables across the surveys. In some surveys (e.g., the two censuses and CS 2007), quite high proportions of households incorrectly reported zero income or expenditure or did not specify their income or expenditure. Poverty and inequality estimates could be influenced by either including or excluding these households from the analyses. Hence, various approaches to deal with these households are examined in Chapter 3. As the surveys typically under-captured income or expenditure when compared with the national accounts income, the validity of the resultant poverty and inequality estimates might be affected. Hence, arguments for and against adjusting the survey means in line with the national accounts mean (e.g. by shifting the survey distribution rightwards) are discussed. As the survey data are, strictly speaking, crosssectional and not designed for time-series labour market, poverty and inequality analyses, it is sometimes argued that the data should be re-weighted to be consistent with demographic and geographic numbers presented by the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) and Census data. This cross entropy re-weighting approach is discussed in Chapter 3. Finally, the chapter examines the labour market status derivation methodology in all OHSs, LFSs and QLFSs in greater detail, and investigates how the changes across the surveys could possibly affect the comparability of labour market estimates throughout the years. The dissertation then examines the labour market trends since the transition by using the OHS, LFS and QLFS data, and it is found that both the labour force and employment numbers increased in general since the transition, but the latter increase was not rapid enough to absorb the expanding labour force. In addition, the number of narrow unemployed doubled between 1994 and 2009, and the narrow unemployment rate showed an upward trend and peaked at just above 30% in 2003. It decreased between 2004 and 2007, before rising again in 2008- 2009 due to the impact of global recession. Application of the cross entropy approach does not substantially affect labour market trends, suggesting that the trends (including the abrupt increase in labour market estimates during the changeover from OHS to LFS) were either real or took place due to the improvement of the questionnaire to capture the labour market status of the respondents better. Furthermore, the application of the LFS 2000b-LFS 2007b methodology on the earlier surveys reduced the extent of the abrupt increase of the number of broad unemployed and broad unemployment rates during the changeover between OHS and LFS. Finally, the use of the QLFS methodology (which required minor revisions) on the LFSs greatly reduced the extent of the abrupt decrease of unemployment aggregates between LFS 2007b and QLFS 2008Q1, thereby improving the comparability of these aggregates across the surveys. In Chapter 5 poverty and inequality concepts are reviewed, followed by a detailed explanation of the sequential regression multiple imputation (SRMI) technique to deal with households with zero or missing income or expenditure, as well as the derivation of real income, expenditure and consumption variables in each survey. Poverty and inequality trends since the transition are examined in Chapter 6. With regard to poverty, with the exception of AMPS, the poverty trends were very similar across the surveys, that is, poverty increased since the transition, before a downward trend took place since 2000. As far as inequality is concerned, both the levels and trends in the Gini coefficients differed a lot amongst the surveys, as the estimates were very stable in the AMPSs, showed an upward trend in surveys like IESs and GHSs, but first increased until 2000 before a downward trend took place in others (e.g., the two censuses and CS 2007). The levels of inequality also differed when comparing the surveys. The abovementioned poverty and inequality estimates and trends could in part be affected by the various issues discussed in Chapter 3, thus there is a need for careful analysis. The impact of the number and width of intervals in which income or expenditure data are recorded on poverty and inequality estimates and trends are dealt with in greater detail in Chapter 6 by applying various intervals on the three IESs and NIDS 2008. It is found that the number and width of intervals only had some impact on these estimates and trends in some surveys. The effect of adjusting the survey means in line with the national accounts mean is also investigated. Finally, the application of the cross entropy re-weighting technique did not have any significant impact on the poverty and inequality estimates and trends. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Data wat op datum en betroubaar is word vereis om te kan evalueer in watter mate Suid- Afrika sy doelwitte rakende die vermindering van armoede en ongelykheid en die skepping van werkgeleenthede bereik. Sedert die politieke oorgang word verskeie opnamedatastelle gewoonlik vir sulke ontledings gebruik, byvoorbeeld Sensusse, die Gemeenskapsopname van 2007, Inkomste- en Bestedingsopnames, Oktober-huishoudingsopnames, Arbeidsmagopnames, Kwartaallikse Arbeidsmagopnames, Algemene-Huishoudingsopnames, die Nasionale-Inkomste-Dinamika-Studie en die Alle-Media-en-Produkte-opnames. Weens verskille in steekproef-ontwerp, struktuur van die vraelyste, metodologie om arbeidsmarkstatus te klassifiseer, asook maniere waarop inligting oor inkomste en besteding ingewin is, is hierdie datastelle egter nie ten volle vergelykbaar nie, Gevolglik begin hierdie proefskrif in Hoofstuk 2 om elk van hierdie kwessies in elke opname te ontleed. Inkomste- en bestedingsinligting is in die opnames verskillend ingewin: In die meeste opnames is respondente gevra om aan te dui hoeveel hulle in die verlede bestee of verdien het, maar in die Inkomste- en Bestedingsopname van 2005/2006 is die dagboekmetode gebruik; respondente is in party opnames gevra om die presiese bedrag te vermeld, terwyl hulle in ander opnames die betrokke inkomste- of bestedingsinterval moes aandui; vir eersgenoemde is hulle gevra om òf die enkelbedrag te verklaar, òf hulle moes ‘n aantal sub-komponente onderskei; vir intervaldata kan verskillende metodes gebruik word om skattings van die inkomste in elke interval te maak. Dus begin Hoofstuk 3 met ‘n oorsig van die voor- en nadele van die verskillende benaderings en ‘n bespreking van hoe dit die betroubaarheid en vergelykbaarheid van inkomste- en bestedingsveranderlikes oor die opnames beïnvloed. In party opnames (bv. die twee sensusse en die Gemeenskapsopname van 2007) dui heelwat huishoudings verkeerdelik aan dat hulle geen inkomste verdien of uitgawes aangaan nie, of hulle spesifiseer nie hoeveel hulle verdien of bestee nie. Ramings van armoede en ongelykheid kan geraak word deur sulke respondent in te sluit of deur hulle uit te laat in die ontledings. Gevolglik word verskeie benaderings in Hoofstuk 3 bespreek om hiermee om te gaan. Omdat opnames vergeleke met die nasionale rekeninge tipies inkomste of besteding onderskat, mag dit die geldigheid van daaruitvoortspruitende armoede- en ongelykheidsramings raak. Gevolglik word argumente vir en teen die aanpsssing van die opname-data om dit in ooreenstemming te bring met die nasionale rekeninge (d.w.s. deur die verdeling na regs te verskuif) bespreek. Ten slotte, omdat die opnamedata streng gesproke kruissnitdata is en nie ontwerp is vir tydreekse van die arbeidsmag, armoede en ongelykheid nie, word soms aangevoer dat die gewigte van die data herweeg moet word om in ooreenstemming te wees met demografiese en geografiese data soos verkry van die Aktuariële Vereniging van Suid-Afrika en sensusdata. Hierdie kruisentropie herwegingsmetode word in Hoofstuk 3 bespreek. Ten slotte ondersoek die laaste hoofstuk die metodologie vir die bepaling van arbeidsmarkstatus in all die OHS, LFS en QLFS opnames in groter besonderhede, en ook hoe die veranderings oor die verskillende opname-reekse heen dalk die vergelykbaarheid van arbeidsmarkramings deur die jare kan beïnvloed. Die proefskrif ontleed daarna arbeidsmarktendense sedert die politieke oorgang met gebruik van die Oktober-huishoudingsoponames, Arbeidsmagopnames en Kwartaallikse Arbeidsmagopnames. Beide die arbeidsmag en indiensneming het sedert die transisie toegeneem, maar die toename in indiensneming was onvoldoende om die uitbreiding van die arbeidsmag te absorbeer. Verder het die getal eng-gedefinieerde werkloses tussen 1994 en 2009 verdubbel, en die eng werkloosheidskoers het ‘n toename getoon en in 2003 ‘n toppunt van 30% bereik. Dit het daarna tussen 2004 en 2007 gedaal voordat dit weer in 2008-2009 gestyg het weens die wêreldreseessie. Die toepassing van die kruisentropie-benadering het arbeidsmarktendense nie noemenswaardig beïnvloed nie, wat daarop dui dat hierdie tendense (insluitende die skielike toename in arbeidsmagramings in die oorgang van die Oktoberhuishoudingsopname- data na die Arbeidsmarkopname-data) werklik was, of anders plaasgevind het weens veranderings in die opnamevraelyste om respondente se arbeidsmarkstatus beter te probeer bepaal. Verder het die toepassing van die LFS2000b tot LFS 2007B metodologie op die vroeëre opnames die abrupte verlaging in die oorgang tussen die OHS en LFS in die getal breed-gedefineerde werkloses en breë werkloosheidkoerse verminder. Ten slotte het die gebruik van die QLFS-metodologie op die LFS (wat kleiner hersienings benodig het) die abrupte verlaging tussen LFS2007b en QLFS2008Q1 aansienlik verminder, en dus die vergelykbaarheid van hierdie groothede oor die opnames heen verbeter. In Hoofstuk 5 word eers ‘n oorsig van armoede- en ongelykheidsbegrippe gegee, waarma die sekwensiële-regressie-veelvoudige-imputasie-tegniek in besonderhede bespreek word. Hierdie tegniek word veral gebruik vir gevalle waar huishoudings aandui dat hulle inkomste of besteding nul is, of waar hulle nie antwoord nie. Daar is ook ‘n bespreking van die bepaling van reële inkomste, besteding of verbruiksveranderlikes in elke opname. Armoedeen ongeleykheidstendense word in Hoofstul 6 bespreek. Rakende armoede is daar, met uitsondering van die Alle-Media-en-Produkte-opname, eenstemmigheid dat dit sedert die politieke oorgang eers gestyg het voor dit sedert 2000 begin daal het. Sover dit ongelykheid aanbetref verskil neigings in die Gini-koëffissiënt baie tussen die opnames, want die ramings is stabiel oor die periode vir die Alle-Media-en-Produkte-opname, styg vir die Inkomste- en Bestedingsopname en die Algemene-Huishoudingsopnames, en styg tot 2000 voordat dit afneem in ander opnames (bv. die twee sensusse en die Gemeenskapsopname van 2007). Vlakke van ongelykheid verskil ook tussen die opnames. Deels kan die genoemde tendense in armoede- en ongelykheid dalk toegeskryf word aan die kwessies wat in Hoofstuk 3 bespreek is. Die effek van die getal en wydte van die intervalle waarin inkomste- en bestedingsdata ingewin word op ramings van armoede en ongelykheid word in meer besonderheid in Hoofstuk 6 bespreek. Deur die toepassing van verskillende intervalle op data van die drie Inkomste- en Bestedingsopnames en die Nasionale-Inkomste-Dinamika-studie word bevind dat die getal en wydte van intervalle ‘n beperkte effek op hierdie ramings en tendense het. Verder word gekyk na die effek van die aanpssing van die opname-data om dit in ooreenstemming met die nasionale rekeninge te bring. Ten slotte word getoon dat die gebruik van die kruisentropie-metode nie enige beduidende uitwerking op armoede- en ongeleykheidsramings en -tendense het nie.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis deals with poverty and inequality in Mozambique and with the link of education to wellbeing through the labour market. Earlier studies that analysed well-being in Mozambique drew counter-intuitive conclusions about the spatial distribution of poverty and inequality. They focused excessively on money-metric indicators of well-being and adjusted the poverty line so as to make it reflect taste and price differentials across regions. This thesis suggests the use of a wealth index based on asset holdings and derived by employing Multiple Correspondence Analysis to support the money-metric results. If results are not also confirmed by other indicators of well-being, one should be sceptical of simply unquestioningly applying best practice approaches. In this thesis the moneymetric results drawn by earlier studies are not confirmed by this other indicator of well-being. Since education is a policy lever that can be used to influence the existing patterns of poverty and inequality, one needs to understand how it operates through the labour market in improving wellbeing. Developing and poor economies such as Mozambique are characterised by a very segmented labour market and by a small wage sector. A large proportion of the working-age population is engaged in subsistence agriculture and self-employment activities. Using a multinomial logit model this thesis demonstrates that schooling has an influence on the choice of employment segment. For instance, schooling increases an individual’s chances of getting a public sector job, but lowers his or her chances of falling into self-employment activities. This study also links schooling to earnings. It argues that when analysing the relationship between schooling and earnings in a poor developing economy one should account for the multiple segmentation of the labour market as well as for sample selection bias. To estimate the effects of schooling on earnings this thesis thus employs a modified version of Dubin and McFadden’s model. It finds a positive association between education and earnings in the public wage sector, the private wage sector and in the selfemployment segment. Convex returns to education are also found, and accounting for selectivity bias does improve the earnings functions relative to those based on ordinary least squares regressions. Education quality has a bearing on an individual’s performance in the labour market and therefore affects the role of education in alleviating poverty. Thus, this thesis identifies the correlates of education quality in Mozambique. Employing education production functions based on ordinary least squares multivariate regressions it finds that most of the correlates of educational achievement suggested by the literature are indeed associated with educational outputs. Employing Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition techniques often used in labour studies to study earnings discrimination, the thesis attempts to explain the reasons behind the average deterioration in education quality in Mozambique. The initial hypothesis on this matter was that the average deterioration in education quality over time was associated with the increase in the proportion of pupils from low socioeconomic backgrounds. This hypothesis, however, is not confirmed. Likely explanations include the decline in the efficiency of the education system and more lenient pupil promotion policies. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif handel oor armoede en ongelykheid in Mosambiek en die effek van onderwys op welsyn deur die arbeidsmark. Vroeëre studies het gevolgtrekkings oor welsyn in Mosambiek getrek wat nie met intuïsie oor die ruimtelike verdeling van armoede en ongelykheid strook nie. Sulke studies het slegs geldelike maatstawwe van welsyn gebruik en die armoedelyn aangepas om pryse en smaak in verskillende streke te reflekteer. Hierdie tesis stel die gebruik van nie-geldelike maatstawwe voor om geldelike maatstawwe aan te vul, en spesifiek ’n bate-indeks van welsyn wat verkry word deur die gebruik van Veelvuldige-Korrespondensie-Analise. Daar is rede tot skeptisisme wanneer die sogenaamde ‘beste’ metode vir die berekening van geldelike maatstawwe sonder bevraagtekening gebruik word en die resultate nie deur ander indikatore van welsyn bevestig word nie. Aangesien onderwys ’n beleidsinstrument bied om bestaande patrone van armoede en ongelykheid te beïnvloed, is dit nodig om te verstaan hoe dit deur die arbeidsmark werk om welsyn te verbeter. Ontwikkelende en arm ekonomieë soos Mosambiek word gekenmerk deur ’n baie gesegmenteerde arbeidsmark en ’n klein loonsektor. Groot persentasie van die bevolking van werkende ouderdom is by onderhoudslandbou en ander self-indiensneming betrokke. Veelvoudige-logit-model toon hoe opvoeding die keuse van indiensnemingsektor beïnvloed. Onderwys verhoog byvoorbeeld iemand se kanse om pos in die openbare sektor te kry, maar verlaag die waarskynlikheid van selfindiensneming. Die studie koppel verdienste ook aan onderwys. Daar word aangevoer dat die groot arbeidsmarksegmentasie en seleksie-sydigheid in berekening gebring moet word wanneer die verband tussen onderwys en lone in arm ontwikkelende land bestudeer word. Dus word aangepaste vorm van Dubin en McFadden se model in hierdie proefskrif gebruik om die effek van onderwys op verdienste te bereken. Positiewe verband bestaan tussen onderwys en lone in die openbare loonsektor, die private loonsektor en self-indiensname. Die opbrengsstruktuur op onderwys is konveks, en inagneming van seleksie-sydigheid verbeter die verdienstefunksies relatief tot gevalle wat net op gewone kleinste-kwadrate-regressies gebaseer is. Onderwysgehalte het invloed op persoon se vertoning in die arbeidsmark en raak daarom die rol van onderwys in armoedeverligting. Faktore wat met onderwysgehalte in Mosambiek verband hou word dus geïdentifiseer. Die gebruik van gewone-kleinste-kwadrate-veelvoudige-regressies in onderwysproduksiefunksies toon dat die meeste van die bepalende faktore wat in die literatuur genoem word inderdaad met onderwysuitsette verband hou. Deur gebruik van Oaxaca-Blinder dekomposisie-tegnieke – wat meer dikwels gebruik word om arbeidsmarkdiskriminasie te ontleed – word gepoog om die redes vir die agteruitgang van gemiddelde onderwysgehalte in Mosambiek te verklaar. Die aanvanklike hipotese hieroor was dat die agteruitgang in die gemiddelde vertoning deur die toename van leerlinge van laer sosio-ekonomiese agtergrond verklaar sou kon word. Ontleding van die data bevestig egter nie hierdie hipotese nie. Moontlike verklarings sluit in agteruitgang in die doeltreffendheid van die onderwysstelsel en minder streng beleid rakende promosie van leerlinge na hoër grade.