Esta dissertação de mestrado apresenta uma proposta de critério para a construção de faixas adicionais em rodovias com longos declives. A proposta contempla três aspectos: 1-) Elaboração de um programa de computador que permita calcular a temperatura do sistema de freios de qualquer veículo que esteja operando em qualquer ponto de uma rampa descendente, conhecidas as características do veículo, da massa transportada, da velocidade desenvolvida pelo veículo e da rampa em questão (comprimento e declividade). Em outras palavras: o programa permite gerar as curvas de desempenho para qualquer veículo de carga, em qualquer trecho de descida de uma rodovia; 2-) Determinação da redução de velocidade para caminhões nos trechos estudados; e 3-) Cálculo da porcentagem de veículos de carga no fluxo total de veículos que utilizam a rodovia, valor esse que viabilize economicamente a construção de faixas auxiliares. Esta dissertação aborda mais profundamente o primeiro aspecto da proposta. Os outros dois, devido à sua complexidade, são sugeridos como tema para trabalhos futuros. De posse do programa computacional, o mesmo foi utilizado para simular o comportamento da frota de veículos de carga brasileiros, em greides com comprimento variável de 1.000 a 12.000 metros e inclinações que variam de 1 a 12%. Também foi verificado o impacto da aplicação da resolução 777/93 do CONTRAN - que regulamenta o desempenho e o sistema de freios dos veículos de carga - na frota brasileira de veículos de carga. Os resultados obtidos indicam, além da importância de uma legislação adequada para o tema, uma urgente renovação ou adequação da frota brasileira de veículos de carga, haja visto que grande parte da mesma, por possuir uma elevada idade média, não atinge os requisitos mínimos para circular pelas rodovias brasileiras sem comprometimento das condições de segurança, dirigibilidade, estabilidade e desempenho. / This master thesis presents a criteria\'s proposal to construction of auxiliary lanes in roads with long and steep downgrades. The proposal contemplates three aspects: 1-) Elaboration of a computer\'s program that allows to obtain the brake system\'s temperature of any heavy truck performing at any point of a long and steep downgrade. It\'s necessary to know the truck\'s brake characteristics, the brake-motor power, the total mass transported, the vehicles\'speed and the downhill characteristics (length and percent). With this data, the program calculates the performance curves of brazilian trucks, regarding brakes\'system\'s termical aspects; 2-) Determination of the maximum speed reduction of slow trucks on downhill; and, 3-) Estimation of minimum downgrade traffic flow rates and truck percents that would warrant the construction of declivity help lanes, from costs-effectiveness approach. This master thesis broaches more profundity the first proposal\'s aspects. The aspects two and three, due to its complexity, are suggested to be future studies\'object. The computational program developed in this work was used to simulate the performance of brazilian\'s fleet heavy truck in declivities with lengths from 1.000 till 12.000 meters and declivity that vary from 1 till 12%. It was used, too, to show the impact of the resolution number 777/93 - edited by CONTRAN - applicated in the same fleet. This resolution rules ship vehicles\'brakes\'system and their performance. The obtain results denote, farther importance of a adequate legislation for the theme, a urgent renovation or adequation of brazilian\'s fleet heavy truck due to, a large part of it, with more than ten year of age, is unable to reach the minimum requisites to moving on brazilian roads and highways without implication of security, conductibility, stability and performance\'s conditions.

Esta dissertação de mestrado apresenta uma proposta de critério para a construção de faixas adicionais em rodovias com longos declives. A proposta contempla três aspectos: 1-) Elaboração de um programa de computador que permita calcular a temperatura do sistema de freios de qualquer veículo que esteja operando em qualquer ponto de uma rampa descendente, conhecidas as características do veículo, da massa transportada, da velocidade desenvolvida pelo veículo e da rampa em questão (comprimento e declividade). Em outras palavras: o programa permite gerar as curvas de desempenho para qualquer veículo de carga, em qualquer trecho de descida de uma rodovia; 2-) Determinação da redução de velocidade para caminhões nos trechos estudados; e 3-) Cálculo da porcentagem de veículos de carga no fluxo total de veículos que utilizam a rodovia, valor esse que viabilize economicamente a construção de faixas auxiliares. Esta dissertação aborda mais profundamente o primeiro aspecto da proposta. Os outros dois, devido à sua complexidade, são sugeridos como tema para trabalhos futuros. De posse do programa computacional, o mesmo foi utilizado para simular o comportamento da frota de veículos de carga brasileiros, em greides com comprimento variável de 1.000 a 12.000 metros e inclinações que variam de 1 a 12%. Também foi verificado o impacto da aplicação da resolução 777/93 do CONTRAN - que regulamenta o desempenho e o sistema de freios dos veículos de carga - na frota brasileira de veículos de carga. Os resultados obtidos indicam, além da importância de uma legislação adequada para o tema, uma urgente renovação ou adequação da frota brasileira de veículos de carga, haja visto que grande parte da mesma, por possuir uma elevada idade média, não atinge os requisitos mínimos para circular pelas rodovias brasileiras sem comprometimento das condições de segurança, dirigibilidade, estabilidade e desempenho. / This master thesis presents a criteria\'s proposal to construction of auxiliary lanes in roads with long and steep downgrades. The proposal contemplates three aspects: 1-) Elaboration of a computer\'s program that allows to obtain the brake system\'s temperature of any heavy truck performing at any point of a long and steep downgrade. It\'s necessary to know the truck\'s brake characteristics, the brake-motor power, the total mass transported, the vehicles\'speed and the downhill characteristics (length and percent). With this data, the program calculates the performance curves of brazilian trucks, regarding brakes\'system\'s termical aspects; 2-) Determination of the maximum speed reduction of slow trucks on downhill; and, 3-) Estimation of minimum downgrade traffic flow rates and truck percents that would warrant the construction of declivity help lanes, from costs-effectiveness approach. This master thesis broaches more profundity the first proposal\'s aspects. The aspects two and three, due to its complexity, are suggested to be future studies\'object. The computational program developed in this work was used to simulate the performance of brazilian\'s fleet heavy truck in declivities with lengths from 1.000 till 12.000 meters and declivity that vary from 1 till 12%. It was used, too, to show the impact of the resolution number 777/93 - edited by CONTRAN - applicated in the same fleet. This resolution rules ship vehicles\'brakes\'system and their performance. The obtain results denote, farther importance of a adequate legislation for the theme, a urgent renovation or adequation of brazilian\'s fleet heavy truck due to, a large part of it, with more than ten year of age, is unable to reach the minimum requisites to moving on brazilian roads and highways without implication of security, conductibility, stability and performance\'s conditions.

Submitted by Nicolò Rocca (nicolo.rocca@outlook.com) on 2017-02-22T22:26:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV-EESP Dissertation Nicolò Rocca.pdf: 1754308 bytes, checksum: 9f5af21bb7819365b18cde149f924fff (MD5) / Rejected by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br), reason: Dear Nicolo, Please, it’s necessary to correct some things in your thesis: • Withdraw the pages numbers before the introduction, but they must to be considered, the numbers need to start in the introduction and they must to be on the superior right side of the page; • At the Page 3 – You need to ask the Ficha catalográfica code for Biblioteca, according the orientation sent to you by email, it’s the first step: Step 1: Ficha Catalográfica: To fill in the “Ficha Catalográfica”, access the link: http://sistema.bibliotecas-sp.fgv.br/ficha_catalografica, fill the information and await for the email the “Biblioteca Digital (Digital Library)” will send you (it might take up to 72 hours to be processed and sent to your email address). • At the page 4 - Data da aprovação: thesis presentation date Withdraw the small line above the professor’s names on 2017-02-23T12:11:41Z (GMT) / Submitted by Nicolò Rocca (nicolo.rocca@outlook.com) on 2017-02-23T21:47:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV-EESP Dissertation Nicolò Rocca.pdf: 1720638 bytes, checksum: 4e69717cae8077ae5c8dfd5e481e84c6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br) on 2017-02-24T11:55:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV-EESP Dissertation Nicolò Rocca.pdf: 1720638 bytes, checksum: 4e69717cae8077ae5c8dfd5e481e84c6 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-02T15:59:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FGV-EESP Dissertation Nicolò Rocca.pdf: 1720638 bytes, checksum: 4e69717cae8077ae5c8dfd5e481e84c6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-01-30 / First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors, Professor Miguel Ferreira at Nova SBE and Professor Ricardo Rochman at FGV-EESP, for their constructive feedback and insightful guidance throughout the research. I would also like to thank all the members of International Master in Finance Brazil-Europe for providing me deep knowledge in the areas of corporate finance, quantitative analysis, management of financial institutions and investment banking necessary to excel in today’s international financial markets. Furthermore, I would also like to express gratitude for the extensive facilities provided by the institutions, for the staff and for the IMF program that blends analytical, applied and scientific rigor. I would like to express my most sincere gratitude to my family for providing me continuous encouragement throughout my years of university. Thanks to all of them. / O primeiro objetivo desta pesquisa é estudar quais são os principais determinantes das mudanças nas classificações de crédito corporativo brasileiro fornecidas pela Standard & Poor's. As regressões de painel são aplicadas para analisar as relações entre classificações e sete determinantes. Os resultados mostram cinco determinantes estatisticamente significativos. A segunda parte do estudo examina como as empresas brasileiras listadas reagiram às recentes baixas soberanas emitidas pela Standard & Poor, pela Moody's e pela Fitch. Metodologia do estudo do evento é usada. Todos os eventos apresentam evidências empíricas de retornos anormais negativos, mostrando uma forte correlação negativa entre as ações negativas de rating de crédito eo mercado de ações brasileiro. Ao agregar os eventos, os downgrades ao território da sucata e as mudanças da avaliação de Moody's são aquelas que derrubam estoques retornam o mais.

This dissertation consists of two topics. Chapter 1 explores the relationship between U.S. Property-Casualty (P/C) insurers’ underwriting risk, investment risk, and leverage risk, using data from 1998 to 2013. I test the trade-off hypothesis using a simultaneous equation model framework with partial adjustment effects. The three equations model intend to examine the interrelations between insurers’ leverage and two measures of firm risks: underwriting risk and investment risk. The empirical evidence, various to different sample periods and model specifications, suggests there is no significant relationship existing between insurers’ underwriting risk and investment risk. But these two types of risks are both significantly and negatively related to the leverage ratio. The overall results imply that insurers tend to tradeoff leverage risk and underwriting risk/investment risk, but it appears that they have not taken an integrated approach between the total level of underwriting risk and investment risk yet. The second part of this dissertation empirically investigates the impact of credit risk on insurers’ reinsurance demand, using data on the U.S. P/C insurance industry from 2000 to 2014. I mainly explore how insurers’ credit rating status and downgrade risk affects their reinsurance demand. Using a two-stage least square (2SLS) regression model, I find that low-rated insurers are associated with a higher utilization of reinsurance. In addition, insurers that are downgraded in the previous year tend to have a higher reinsurance demand than the others. Results also show that downgraded group-affiliated insurers tend to significantly increase their internal reinsurance demand from the group-affiliated members while decreasing the purchase of external reinsurance significantly. In general, I find that insurers’ reinsurance demand is affected by their credit rating and downgrade risk. / Business Administration/Risk Management and Insurance

The subject of this thesis is recent development of credit evaluation industry and analysis of rating agency`s behaviour in relation to official rating changes. In the first chapter, fundamental limitations of analytical ratings are defined. Stating both advantages and disadvantages arising mainly from market defficiency, the second one introduces credit default swap as an alternative manner for credit risk measurement. Next part summarizes existing academic activity in context of rating informatory value, highlighting abnormal and asymmetric market reactions. Based on Moodys` approach, the fouth chapter provides reader with the concept of market implied ratings that are consequently used to analyse relation between CDS-IR and official ratings. The last subchapters investigate sensitivity ratio of how rating gap level determines prospective response of rating agency.

The thesis examines whether the role of credit rating prior to the announcement of credit rating change is the neglected factor explaining in large extent the paradox investigated in prior papers that downgrades influence the stock prices of company but upgrades not. It is motivated by the notion that credit rating changes from low credit rating classes influence the stock price of company more distinctively than changes from higher credit rating classes and there is proportionally more downgrades from low credit rating classes than upgrades. The large sample of credit rating changes including proportionally more upgrades from low credit rating classes than downgrades is collected and the results suggesting the influence of downgrades on stock prices of company and any influence of upgrades persist. Furthermore when controlled for credit rating prior to the announcement of credit rating change, magnitude of credit rating change, crossing the investment-speculative barrier, credit rating changes within and across credit rating categories, consecutive credit rating changes in the same direction and industry sector of issuer all the results are consistent with the original conclusions proposing significant stock price reaction to announcements of credit rating downgrades and no stock price response to...

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estudar dispositivos para contenção de veículos desgovernados por falta de freios em declives longos e íngremes. Para tanto, fez-se uma revisão abrangente da literatura especializada e coletaram-se dados em testes realizados na área de escape construída no km 42,7 da pista sul da Via Anchieta, onde existe um declive de 12,8 km de extensão. A pesquisa relatada nesta dissertação focaliza três aspectos principais: a eficiência do dispositivo em deter caminhões sem freios, a localização do dispositivos e a determinação da velocidade segura de operação de caminhões nesse declive. Dados empíricos da desaceleração dos caminhões no dispositivo foram coletados com auxílio de GPS, o que permitiu estudar o comportamento dos caminhões dentro da caixa de retenção. Os dados coletados foram usados para a calibração de um modelo capaz de estimar a desaceleração média proporcionada pelo dispositivo em função da velocidade de entrada e do número de eixos do caminhão. Para a análise da localização do dispositivo, propôs-se um modelo que leva em consideração o perfil vertical do declive, a velocidade dos caminhões, a temperatura dos freios e a frequência de acidentes com veículos desgovernados ao longo do declive. A determinação da estratégia ótima de condução no declive consistiu em determinar a máxima velocidade que os caminhões podem percorrer o declive sem que os freios sofram superaquecimento. Os parâmetros usados na análise foram a massa bruta total do veículo e as reduções da sua caixa de câmbio. Foram estabelecidas velocidades e marchas máximas para 16 tipos de caminhão. Os resultados obtidos mostram que este tipo de dispositivo é capaz de deter caminhões desgovernados com segurança e podem subsidiar projetos de novas áreas de escape no Brasil. / The objective of the dissertation was to study devices for arresting runaway trucks on long and steep downgrades. A comprehensive review of the literature was carried out and empirical data were collected by means of real life trials at an arrester bed build at a 12.8 km downgrade on the southward lanes of Via Anchieta, the old highway connecting the cities of São Paulo and Santos, in Brazil. The research reported focused on three major aspects: arresting capability of the escape area, location of the escape area and safe operating speeds for trucks on this downgrade. Truck deceleration data were collected during the trials by means of GPS equipment installed in the vehicles and were used to determine truck behavior within the arrester bed. A mathematical model, which allows the estimation of average deceleration as a function of entry speed and number of axles, was fitted to the observed data. The location study proposed a method to establish the points along the downgrade where arrester beds are needed, based on road profile, truck speed, brake temperature and accident data. Optimal driving strategies for truck drivers to negotiate safely the downgrade were also studied, in order to determine the downgrade maximum speed that would avoid brake overheating. The parameters used in this analysis were gross vehicle mass and gearbox characteristics. Safe maximum downgrade speeds and gears were established for 16 truck models. The results, which showed that arrester beds are capable of safely stopping runaway trucks in long and steep downgrades, may also be used to assist the design of new arrester beds in Brazil.

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estudar dispositivos para contenção de veículos desgovernados por falta de freios em declives longos e íngremes. Para tanto, fez-se uma revisão abrangente da literatura especializada e coletaram-se dados em testes realizados na área de escape construída no km 42,7 da pista sul da Via Anchieta, onde existe um declive de 12,8 km de extensão. A pesquisa relatada nesta dissertação focaliza três aspectos principais: a eficiência do dispositivo em deter caminhões sem freios, a localização do dispositivos e a determinação da velocidade segura de operação de caminhões nesse declive. Dados empíricos da desaceleração dos caminhões no dispositivo foram coletados com auxílio de GPS, o que permitiu estudar o comportamento dos caminhões dentro da caixa de retenção. Os dados coletados foram usados para a calibração de um modelo capaz de estimar a desaceleração média proporcionada pelo dispositivo em função da velocidade de entrada e do número de eixos do caminhão. Para a análise da localização do dispositivo, propôs-se um modelo que leva em consideração o perfil vertical do declive, a velocidade dos caminhões, a temperatura dos freios e a frequência de acidentes com veículos desgovernados ao longo do declive. A determinação da estratégia ótima de condução no declive consistiu em determinar a máxima velocidade que os caminhões podem percorrer o declive sem que os freios sofram superaquecimento. Os parâmetros usados na análise foram a massa bruta total do veículo e as reduções da sua caixa de câmbio. Foram estabelecidas velocidades e marchas máximas para 16 tipos de caminhão. Os resultados obtidos mostram que este tipo de dispositivo é capaz de deter caminhões desgovernados com segurança e podem subsidiar projetos de novas áreas de escape no Brasil. / The objective of the dissertation was to study devices for arresting runaway trucks on long and steep downgrades. A comprehensive review of the literature was carried out and empirical data were collected by means of real life trials at an arrester bed build at a 12.8 km downgrade on the southward lanes of Via Anchieta, the old highway connecting the cities of São Paulo and Santos, in Brazil. The research reported focused on three major aspects: arresting capability of the escape area, location of the escape area and safe operating speeds for trucks on this downgrade. Truck deceleration data were collected during the trials by means of GPS equipment installed in the vehicles and were used to determine truck behavior within the arrester bed. A mathematical model, which allows the estimation of average deceleration as a function of entry speed and number of axles, was fitted to the observed data. The location study proposed a method to establish the points along the downgrade where arrester beds are needed, based on road profile, truck speed, brake temperature and accident data. Optimal driving strategies for truck drivers to negotiate safely the downgrade were also studied, in order to determine the downgrade maximum speed that would avoid brake overheating. The parameters used in this analysis were gross vehicle mass and gearbox characteristics. Safe maximum downgrade speeds and gears were established for 16 truck models. The results, which showed that arrester beds are capable of safely stopping runaway trucks in long and steep downgrades, may also be used to assist the design of new arrester beds in Brazil.

In the last decade, Swedish commercial real estate companies have increased their presence on thecorporate bond market significantly. The real estate companies now account for the majority ofoutstanding bonds and the trend appears to continue. Furthermore, the companies strive to achieve acredit rating within the boundaries of what is known as Investment Grade. Being rated Investment Gradeby the rating agencies generally means access to a broader investor base and better terms for borrowing.Consequently, the investors on the Swedish bond market are now more exposed to the real estate marketand the real estate companies rely on the bond market for their financial needs. The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority has commented on the increased presence of commercialreal estate companies on the Swedish bond market and proclaimed that it is not clear whether it increasessystemic risk or not. However, as was shown by the Coronavirus pandemic, the Swedish bond markethas flaws relating to liquidity which can be triggered by an increased selling pressure. A scenario forincreased selling pressure could be a collective downgrade of commercial real estate companies to belowinvestment grade, also known as a fallen angel event. This degree project aims to increase the understanding within the field of risk analysis of credit ratingdowngrades of real estate companies issuing corporate bonds. Furthermore, the study aims to identify ifprerequisite factors for a downgrade scenario are present. This study is based on a multi-methodquantitative approach. The Altman Z-score will be performed on the companies in the lower bounds ofinvestment grade to identify if there are early warnings of financial distress and if any companies shouldbe downgraded. By means of a questionnaire, the aim is to identify how domestic investors are allowedto act in a downgrade scenario and what factors affect their actions. The study will also perform asensitivity analysis of the same companies to investigate how sensitive they are to changes in a set ofparameters before reaching the boundaries of investment grade established by the rating agencies. The study shows that one in five investors are required to sell a bond that has been downgraded to belowinvestment grade. This may cause a first mover advantage effect, which in turn leads to fire sale ofdowngraded bonds. Not in line with previous literature, one out of six insurance investors are notallowed to keep downgraded bonds according to the questionnaire results. Furthermore, the results ofthe survey indicate that the investors that are not allowed to keep downgraded bonds are to a large extentgoverned by regulatory restrictions. 81 percent of the investors have a discretionary mandate allowingthem to keep downgraded bonds and it is unclear how these investors will act in a fallen angel’s scenario.It can be argued that a discretionary mandate creates a setting for market shortcomings such asreputational concerns among portfolio managers. The study also showed that five of the analyzed companies achieved a Z-score equivalent belowInvestment Grade. This translates to approximately 15 percent of the real estate companies withinvestment grade which means that the results of the Altman Z-score suggests a three times higherdowngrade probability than the historical global average for Investment Grade rated companies. Thesensitivity analysis revealed that companies' sensitivity to net operating income ranged between 2 - 13percent with the majority of the companies between 2 - 6 percent. The sensitivity to valuation yieldranges from 0.05 - 0.76 percent with the majority in the range from 0.24 - 0.45 percent. Furthermore,the sensitivity to change in interest rate ranged between 0.45 - 2.25 percent with the majority reachinga downgrade trigger relating to interest coverage ratio with a change between 0.45 - 0.7 percent. / Det senaste årtiondet har svenska kommersiella fastighetsbolag ökat sin närvaro påobligationsmarknaden. Numera står fastighetsbolagen för merparten av utestående företagsobligationeroch det finns inga tecken på att trenden är avtagande. I och med den ökade upplåningen påobligationsmarknaden strävar fastighetsbolagen att uppnå ett kreditbetyg inom gränsen för vad sombenämns “Investment Grade”. Ett kreditbetyg av denna dignitet innebär generellt tillgång till en bredareinvesterarbas samt bättre villkor för upplåning. En konsekvens av ovan är att investerare inom svenska företagsobligationer är mer exponerade motfastighetssektorn än tidigare samt att fastighetsbolagen är mer beroende av obligationsmarknaden för atttillgodose sitt finansieringsbehov. Finansinspektionen har uttryckt sin oro över fastighetsbolagens ökadenärvaro på obligationsmarknaden och samtidigt kommenterat utvecklingen med att det är oklarthuruvida det ökar systemrisken. Det står dock klart att den svenska företagsobligationsmarknaden harbrister, vilka framkom under Coronapandemin. Bland annat tydliggjordes brister i likviditeten till följdav ett ökat säljtryck. Ett alternativt scenario med potential för ökat säljtryck är nedgradering avkreditbetyg vilket resulterar i att företag förlorar sitt Investment Grade betyg. Detta examensarbete syftar till att öka förståelsen kring riskanalys av nedgradering av kreditbetyg hosfastighetsbolag. Vidare ämnar rapporten identifiera om förutsättningarna för ett scenario mednedgraderingar av kreditbetyg som resulterar i problem på obligationsmarknaden föreligger. Studienutgår ifrån tre kvantitativa metoder. Genom en enkätundersökning undersöks hur inhemska investerareär tillåtna att agera i ovan nämnt scenario samt vilka faktorer som påverkar deras beslut. Studien kommer även att utföra en känslighetsanalys på fastighetsbolagen i de nedre regionerna av Investment Grade isyfte att synliggöra hur känsliga de är för en potentiell nedgradering av kreditbetyget. För att belysa omdet finns eventuella tidiga varningssignaler i fastighetsbolagens finansiella förmåga kommer Altman Zscore att utföras på bolagen. Studien visar att en av fem investerare måste sälja om det emitterande bolaget nedgraderas frånInvestment Grade vilket kan resultera i det som benämns First mover advantage bland investerarna itidigare litteratur. Detta kan i sin tur leda till s.k. fires sales av nedgraderade obligationer och därmed ettökat säljtryck. Resultatet av enkäten visar vidare att endast en av sex investerare frånförsäkringsbolag/livbolag inte har rätt att behålla nedgraderade obligationer vilket inte är i linje medtidigare utförda studier. Enkätsvaren visar även att investerare som inte får behålla nedgraderadeobligationer förhåller sig mestadels till regulatoriska begränsningar. Resultatet av enkäten visar att ca80 procent av investerarna har diskretionära mandat att själva bestämmer om de ska behålla eller säljaen nedgraderad obligation. Vi argumenterar för att det diskretionära mandatet innebär att investerarnasval kan påverkas av fenomen som till exempel hur deras förmåga att bedöma kreditrisk framstår.Slutligen visar studien att fem av de elva analyserade bolagen fick ett Altman Z-score motsvarandeunder Investment Grade. Detta motsvarar ungefär 15 procent av fastighetsbolagen med InvestmentGrade och innebär att Altmans metod ger en sannolikhet av nedgradering som är tre gånger större än dethistoriska genomsnittet i välden. Känslighetsanalysen visade att bolagen kunde motstå ändring avdriftnettot mellan 2 - 13 procent innan de degraderades. Känsligheten till värderingsyield låg mellan0.05 - 0.76 procent med merparten mellan 0.24 - 0.45 procent. Sist så uppmättes känsligheten igenomsnittlig låneränta till mellan 0.45 - 2.25 procent med merparten mellan 0.45 - 0.70 procent innande nedgraderas.