Grasslands provide fundamental ecosystem services in many arid and semi-arid regions of the world, but are experiencing rapid increases in fire activity making them highly susceptible to post-fire accelerated soil erosion by wind. A quantitative assessment that integrates fire-wind erosion feedbacks is therefore needed to account for vegetation change, soil biogeochemical cycling, air quality, and landscape evolution. We investigated the applicability of a novel tracer technique – the use of multiple rare earth elements (REE) - to quantify aeolian soil erosion and to identify sources and sinks of wind-blown sediments in a burned and unburned shrub-grass transition zone in the Chihuahuan desert, NM, USA. Results indicate that the horizontal mass flux of wind-borne sediment increased approximately three times following the fire. The REE-tracer analysis of aeolian sediments shows that an average 88% of the horizontal mass flux in the control area was derived from bare microsites, whereas at the burned site it was derived from shrub and bare microsites, 42% and 39% respectively. The vegetated microsites, which were predominantly sinks of aeolian sediments in the unburned areas, became sediment sources following the fire. The burned areas exhibited a spatial homogenization of sediment tracers, highlighting a potential negative feedback on landscape heterogeneity induced by shrub encroachment into grasslands. Though fires are known to increase aeolian sediment transport, accompanying changes in the sources and sinks of wind-borne sediments likely influence biogeochemical cycling and land degradation dynamics. Our experiment demonstrated that REEs can be used as reliable tracers for field-scale aeolian studies. / Geology / Accompanied by one compressed .zip file: MET_Tower_Data.zip

[EN] Water is the foundation for all biological life on Earth and one of the basic links between the biosphere and atmosphere. It is equally fundamental for humans and nature (Tolba, 1982). In an environment of growing scarcity and competition for water, increasing the understanding of all fluxes of the water cycle lies at the heart of the scientific community's goals. Traditionally, water and vegetation have been considered as different systems. However, it is necessary to take a holistic approach which considers the question of the water cycle in an integrated manner by taking into account both: blue water and green water (Birot et al., 2011). Around this idea, the new discipline Ecohydrology emerged in the early 20th century and, from then; it has grown steadily as shown by the increasing number of research lines and scientific papers related to this new field. However, most of the current hydrological models includes the vegetation as static parameter and not as state variable. There are some exceptions taking explicitly the vegetation as state variable but in those cases, the models' complexity and parametrical requirements increase substantially. In practice, we have to deal against the 'data scarcity - high parametrical requirements' issue really often. To reduce that issue, two strategies can be applied: (1) simplification of the models' conceptual scheme and (2) increase of data availability by incorporating new sources of information. In this thesis, we explored the use of a distributed parsimonious ecohydrological modelling (with low parametrical requirements) calibrated and validated exclusively with remote sensing data. First, we used the parsimonious ecohydrological model proposed by Pasquato et al. (2015) in an experimental plot located in a semi-arid Mediterranean forest. The results in this previous stage suggested that the model was able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of vegetation as well as the soil moisture variations. In other words, it has been shown that a parsimonious model with simple equations can achieve good results in general terms. But, as long as we applied the model at plot scale, the challenging task to reproduce the spatial variation of the vegetation and water cycle remained. To explore the spatio-temporal variation of the vegetation and the water cycle, the distributed version of the parsimonious ecohydrological model used previously was applied in a basin located in Kenya, concretely in the Upper Ewaso Ngiro River basin. In order to explore the potential applicability of the satellite data, we calibrated the model using exclusively the NDVI provided by NASA. First of all, we had to deal with the fact that we were not calibrating the model with only one temporal series such as historical streamflow as usual. In fact, satellite data is composed by one temporal series per pixel. We had to identify how to use spatio-temporal (and not only temporal) data during models' calibration and validation. In that sense, unfortunately, there is still a deep lack in literature. A methodology based on the use of Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis was proposed and successfully applied. This experience provided amazing and promising results. The obtained results demonstrated that: (1) satellite data of vegetation dynamics contains an extraordinary amount of information that can be used to implement ecohydrological models in scarce data regions; (2) the proposed semi-automatic calibration methodology works satisfactorily and it allows to incorporate spatio-temporal data in the model parameterization and (3) the model calibrated only using satellite data is able to reproduce both the spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics and the observed discharge at the outlet point. It is important to highlight the positive consequences of this last result particularly in ungauged basins where the use of satellite data could be an alternative in order to obtain a proxy of the streamflow at outlet point. / [ES] El agua es la base de toda vida biológica en la Tierra y uno de los enlaces básicos entre la biosfera y la atmósfera. Es igualmente fundamental para los seres humanos y la naturaleza (Tolba, 1982). Tradicionalmente, el agua y la vegetación se han considerado como sistemas diferentes pero es claramente necesario tomar un enfoque holístico que considere la cuestión del ciclo del agua de una manera integrada, teniendo en cuenta tanto el agua azul como el agua verde (Birot et al., 2011). Alrededor de esta idea surgió la nueva disciplina llamada Ecohidrología a principios del siglo XX y desde entonces, no ha dejado de crecer tal y como demuestran el creciente aumento de líneas de investigación y publicaciones científicas relacionadas con este nuevo campo. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los modelos hidrológicos actuales incluye la vegetación como un parámetro estático y no como una variable de estado. Hay algunas excepciones que toman explícitamente la vegetación como variable de estado, pero en esos casos, la complejidad y el número de parámetros a determinar de los modelos aumentan sustancialmente. En la práctica, tenemos que hacer frente a la temible combinación de "escasez de datos - alto número de parámetros a determinar" con mucha frecuencia. Para reducir este problema, se pueden aplicar dos estrategias: (1) simplificar la complejidad conceptual de los modelos y así reducir el número de parámetros a calibrar, y/o (2) aumentar la disponibilidad de datos mediante la incorporación de nuevas fuentes de información. En esta tesis, hemos explorado el uso de un modelo ecohidrológico distribuido y parsimonioso (con pocos parámetros a determinar) que ha sido completamente calibrado y validado exclusivamente con datos de teledetección. En primer lugar, se utilizó el modelo ecohidrológico parsimonioso propuesto por Pasquato et al. (2015) en una parcela experimental situada en un bosque mediterráneo semiárido. Los resultados obtenidos en esta primera etapa de la tesis sugirieron que el modelo era capaz de reproducir adecuadamente la dinámica de la vegetación, así como las variaciones de humedad del suelo. En otras palabras, se pudo demostrar que un modelo parsimonioso con ecuaciones simples puede lograr buenos resultados en términos generales. Pero, como el modelo había sido aplicado a escala de parcela, todavía quedaba como tarea pendiente reproducir la variación espacial de la vegetación y del ciclo hidrológico. Para explorar la variación espacio-temporal de la vegetación y del ciclo del agua, se aplicó la versión distribuida del modelo ecohidrológico y parsimonioso utilizado previamente en una cuenca situada en Kenia. Con el fin de explorar la posible aplicabilidad de los datos de satélite, calibramos el modelo utilizando exclusivamente el NDVI proporcionada por la NASA. Se aplicó con éxito una metodología basada en el uso de la identificación de las funciones ortogonales empíricas (EOF por sus siglas en inglés). Esta última prueba proporcionó resultados prometedores: (1) los datos de satélite contienen una cantidad extraordinaria de información que puede ser usado para implementar modelos ecohidrológicos en regiones donde no se dispone de tal cantidad de información; (2) la metodología de calibración propuesta funciona satisfactoriamente y permite incorporar datos espacio-temporales en el proceso de parametrización del modelo, y (3) el modelo calibrado sólo con datos de satélite es capaz de reproducir tanto la dinámica espacio-temporal de la vegetación así como el caudal observado en el punto de desagüe de la cuenca. Es importante destacar las consecuencias positivas de este último resultado sobre todo en cuencas no aforadas, donde el uso de datos de satélite podría ser una alternativa para obtener una aproximación del recurso en el punto de desagüe. / [CA] L'aigua és la base de tota vida biològica a la Terra i un dels enllaços bàsics entre la biosfera i l'atmosfera. És igualment fonamental per als éssers humans i la naturalesa (Tolba, 1982). Tradicionalment, l'aigua i la vegetació s'han considerat com a sistemes diferents però és clarament necessari prendre un enfocament holístic que considere la qüestió del cicle de l'aigua d'una manera integrada, tenint en compte tant l'aigua blava com l'aigua verda (Birot et al., 2011). Al voltant d'aquesta idea va sorgir la nova disciplina anomenada Ecohidrología a principis del segle XX i des de llavors, no ha deixat de créixer tal com demostren el creixent augment de línies de recerca i publicacions científiques relacionades amb aquest nou camp. No obstant això, la majoria dels models hidrològics actuals inclou la vegetació com un paràmetre estàtic i no com una variable d'estat. Hi ha algunes excepcions que prenen explícitament la vegetació com a variable d'estat, però en aquests casos, la complexitat i el nombre de paràmetres a determinar dels models augmenten substancialment. En la pràctica, hem de fer front a la temible combinació de "escassetat de dades - alt nombre de paràmetres a determinar" amb molta freqüència. Per reduir aquest problema, es poden aplicar dues estratègies: (1) simplificar la complexitat conceptual dels models i així reduir el nombre de paràmetres a calibrar, i/o (2) augmentar la disponibilitat de dades mitjançant la incorporació de noves fonts d'informació. En aquesta tesi, hem explorat l'ús d'un model ecohidrològic distribuït i parsimoniòs (amb pocs paràmetres a determinar) que ha estat completament calibrat i validat exclusivament amb dades de teledetecció. En primer lloc, es va utilitzar el model ecohidrològic i parsimoniòs proposat per Pasquato et al. (2015) en una parcel·la experimental situada en un bosc mediterrani semi-àrid. Els resultats obtinguts en aquesta primera etapa de la tesi van suggerir que el model era capaç de reproduir adequadament la dinàmica de la vegetació, així com les variacions d'humitat del sòl. En altres paraules, es va poder demostrar que un model parsimoniòs amb equacions simples pot aconseguir bons resultats en termes generals. Però, com el model havia estat aplicat a escala de parcel·la, encara quedava com a tasca pendent reproduir la variació espacial de la vegetació i del cicle hidrològic. Per explorar la variació espai-temporal de la vegetació i del cicle de l'aigua, es va aplicar la versió distribuïda del model ecohidrològic i parsimoniòs utilitzat prèviament en una conca situada a Kenya. Al mateix temps, amb la finalitat d'explorar la possible aplicabilitat de les dades de satèl·lit, calibrem el model utilitzant exclusivament el NDVI proporcionat per la NASA. Es va aplicar amb èxit una metodologia basada en l'ús de la identificació de les funcions ortogonals empíriques (EOF per les seues sigles en anglès). Aquesta última prova va proporcionar resultats sorprenents i prometedors. De fet, els resultats obtinguts van demostrar que: (1) les dades de satèl·lit contenen una quantitat extraordinària d'informació que pot ser usada per implementar models ecohidrològics en regions on no es disposa de tal quantitat d'informació; (2) la metodologia de calibratge proposat funciona satisfactòriament i permet incorporar dades espai-temporals en el procés de parametrització del model, i (3) el model calibrat només amb dades de satèl·lit és capaç de reproduir tant la dinàmica espai-temporal de la vegetació així com el cabal observat en el punt de desguàs de la conca. És important destacar les conseqüències positives d'aquest últim resultat sobretot en conques no aforades, on l'ús de dades de satèl·lit podria ser una alternativa per obtenir una aproximació del recurs en el punt de desguàs. / Ruiz Pérez, G. (2016). On the use of satellite data to calibrate a parsimonious ecohydrological model in ungauged basins [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/72639

Dryland ecosystems are some of the most prevalent ecosystems on Earth and have recently shown stress indicators from climate change. These water-limited systems are vulnerable to increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, especially when looking at carbon cycling dynamics across biological sol crusts and vegetation mortality patterns. This dissertation aims to 1) evaluate how precipitation dynamics, vegetation location, and microclimate conditions influence biological soil crust carbon conditions, and 2) evaluate how topographic influences drive patterns of plant mortality during prolonged drought on the Colorado Plateau. Using high-resolution monitoring of long-term NEE chambers, we found that intermediately disturbed biocrusts are becoming carbon sources with increased temperatures, specifically peaking in summer months. With multi-year, ground-collected plant surveys, we found shrubland resistance to drought-induced mortality to be higher than grasslands. Utilizing UAV imagery, we mapped cactus mortality across various landcover classes and identified cactus size and proximity to other cactus as primary drivers in widespread cactus mortality events. Overall, we found that warming temperatures and increasing aridity are driving further carbon loss and higher rates of plant mortality across different plant functional groups.

The recent revival of debates concerning livestock development in Africa follows the more widespread acceptance of paradigm shifts within rangeland science, and maintaining pastoral mobility is now recognised as fundamental for the future survival of pastoralism and sustainability of dryland environments. However, in southern Africa communal pastoral drylands continue to be enclosed and dissected by large-scale barrier fences designed to control livestock diseases, thus protecting lucrative livestock export agreements. This interdisciplinary research examines the extent to which these veterinary cordon fences have changed people’s access to, and effective management of, natural resources in northern Botswana and how fence-restricted resource use by livestock, wildlife and people has changed the natural environment. Critical political ecology informed the approach, given its emphasis on socio-political and historical influences on resource access, mobility and user relationships. This enabled the biophysical effects of social changes to be investigated fully, thereby moving beyond a tradition of discipline-based studies often resulting in severely repressive rangeland policies. The research demonstrates how enclosure by veterinary cordon fences restricts patterns of resource access and mobility within pastoral drylands, with serious implications for both social and environmental sustainability. Enclosure increases the vulnerability of people to risks and natural hazards, while resource access constraints and pastoral adaptations to enclosure have favoured the increasing commercialisation of livestock production, thus obstructing pathways into pastoralism. While widespread environmental change in livestock areas cannot be attributed thus far to enclosure, the curtailment of wild migratory herbivores at the wildlife–livestock interface has caused some large-scale structural vegetation changes and there are indications that fence induced sedentarisation could be accentuating existing degradation trends. Given these changes, future rangeland policies in Africa should be aware of the social and environmental impacts associated with export-led disease management infrastructure and consider alternative, less intrusive, approaches to livestock development and disease control in extensive pastoral drylands.

<p>The general perception today is that the Shashi-Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is hot and dry and not conducive to human habitation. Today there is no doubt that the Shashi-Limpopo Basin has been home to many communities throughout the pre-historical period. A study of the changing ecological conditions in the Mateke Hills and the Shashi-Limpopo Valley as well as historical and present day land-usage offers an alternative explanation of how prehistoric communities could have interacted with this changing landscape. The archaeological record, historical sources and recent land-use patterns show that settlement location has always been orientated towards the rivers and circumscribed environments. The mosaic of floodplains, wetlands, drylands and circumscribed zones provided the ideal ecological setting for the development of socio-political complexity in southern Africa. The resilience of these semi arid savanna regions together with human innovation and local knowledge ensured that societies continued to derive subsistence even in the face of seasonal variability in rainfall and even climate change.</p>

The general perception today is that the Shashi-Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is hot and dry and not conducive to human habitation. Today there is no doubt that the Shashi-Limpopo Basin has been home to many communities throughout the pre-historical period. A study of the changing ecological conditions in the Mateke Hills and the Shashi-Limpopo Valley as well as historical and present day land-usage offers an alternative explanation of how prehistoric communities could have interacted with this changing landscape. The archaeological record, historical sources and recent land-use patterns show that settlement location has always been orientated towards the rivers and circumscribed environments. The mosaic of floodplains, wetlands, drylands and circumscribed zones provided the ideal ecological setting for the development of socio-political complexity in southern Africa. The resilience of these semi arid savanna regions together with human innovation and local knowledge ensured that societies continued to derive subsistence even in the face of seasonal variability in rainfall and even climate change.

Semi-arid areas are, due to their climatic setting, characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand as a consequence of population growth and economic development as well as a decreasing water availability in the course of possible climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future, which often exists already for present-day conditions in these areas. Understanding the mechanisms and feedbacks of complex natural and human systems, together with the quantitative assessment of future changes in volume, timing and quality of water resources are a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management to enhance the adaptive capacity of these regions. For this task, dynamic integrated models, containing a hydrological model as one component, are indispensable tools.<br /> The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability in view of environmental change over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments.<br /> The study area is the Federal State of Ceará (150 000 km2) in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Mean annual precipitation in this area is 850 mm, falling in a rainy season with duration of about five months. Being mainly characterized by crystalline bedrock and shallow soils, surface water provides the largest part of the water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. <br /> The hydrological model Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) developed in this study is a deterministic, spatially distributed model being composed of conceptual, process-based approaches. Water availability (river discharge, storage volumes in reservoirs, soil moisture) is determined with daily resolution. Sub-basins, grid cells or administrative units (municipalities) can be chosen as spatial target units. The administrative units enable the coupling of Wasa in the framework of an integrated model which contains modules that do not work on the basis of natural spatial units.<br /> The target units mentioned above are disaggregated in Wasa into smaller modelling units within a new multi-scale, hierarchical approach. The landscape units defined in this scheme capture in particular the effect of structured variability of terrain, soil and vegetation characteristics along toposequences on soil moisture and runoff generation. Lateral hydrological processes at the hillslope scale, as reinfiltration of surface runoff, being of particular importance in semi-arid environments, can thus be represented also within the large-scale model in a simplified form. Depending on the resolution of available data, small-scale variability is not represented explicitly with geographic reference in Wasa, but by the distribution of sub-scale units and by statistical transition frequencies for lateral fluxes between these units.<br /> Further model components of Wasa which respect specific features of semi-arid hydrology are: <br /> (1) A two-layer model for evapotranspiration comprises energy transfer at the soil surface (including soil evaporation), which is of importance in view of the mainly sparse vegetation cover. Additionally, vegetation parameters are differentiated in space and time in dependence on the occurrence of the rainy season. <br /> (2) The infiltration module represents in particular infiltration-excess surface runoff as the dominant runoff component. <br /> (3) For the aggregate description of the water balance of reservoirs that cannot be represented explicitly in the model, a storage approach respecting different reservoirs size classes and their interaction via the river network is applied. <br /> (4) A model for the quantification of water withdrawal by water use in different sectors is coupled to Wasa. <br /> (5) A cascade model for the temporal disaggregation of precipitation time series, adapted to the specific characteristics of tropical convective rainfall, is applied for the generating rainfall time series of higher temporal resolution.<br /> All model parameters of Wasa can be derived from physiographic information of the study area. Thus, model calibration is primarily not required.<br /> Model applications of Wasa for historical time series generally results in a good model performance when comparing the simulation results of river discharge and reservoir storage volumes with observed data for river basins of various sizes. The mean water balance as well as the high interannual and intra-annual variability is reasonably represented by the model. Limitations of the modelling concept are most markedly seen for sub-basins with a runoff component from deep groundwater bodies of which the dynamics cannot be satisfactorily represented without calibration.<br /> Further results of model applications are:<br /> (1) Lateral processes of redistribution of runoff and soil moisture at the hillslope scale, in particular reinfiltration of surface runoff, lead to markedly smaller discharge volumes at the basin scale than the simple sum of runoff of the individual sub-areas. Thus, these processes are to be captured also in large-scale models. The different relevance of these processes for different conditions is demonstrated by a larger percentage decrease of discharge volumes in dry as compared to wet years.<br /> (2) Precipitation characteristics have a major impact on the hydrological response of semi-arid environments. In particular, underestimated rainfall intensities in the rainfall input due to the rough temporal resolution of the model and due to interpolation effects and, consequently, underestimated runoff volumes have to be compensated in the model. A scaling factor in the infiltration module or the use of disaggregated hourly rainfall data show good results in this respect.<br /> The simulation results of Wasa are characterized by large uncertainties. These are, on the one hand, due to uncertainties of the model structure to adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes. On the other hand, they are due to uncertainties of input data and parameters particularly in view of the low data availability. Of major importance is:<br /> (1) The uncertainty of rainfall data with regard to their spatial and temporal pattern has, due to the strong non-linear hydrological response, a large impact on the simulation results.<br /> (2) The uncertainty of soil parameters is in general of larger importance on model uncertainty than uncertainty of vegetation or topographic parameters.<br /> (3) The effect of uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is usually different for years with rainfall volumes being above or below the average, because individual hydrological processes are of different relevance in both cases. Thus, the uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is of different importance for the uncertainty of scenario simulations with increasing or decreasing precipitation trends.<br /> (4) The most important factor of uncertainty for scenarios of water availability in the study area is the uncertainty in the results of global climate models on which the regional climate scenarios are based. Both a marked increase or a decrease in precipitation can be assumed for the given data.<br /> Results of model simulations for climate scenarios until the year 2050 show that a possible future change in precipitation volumes causes a larger percentage change in runoff volumes by a factor of two to three. In the case of a decreasing precipitation trend, the efficiency of new reservoirs for securing water availability tends to decrease in the study area because of the interaction of the large number of reservoirs in retaining the overall decreasing runoff volumes. / Semiaride Gebiete sind auf Grund der klimatischen Bedingungen durch geringe Wasserressourcen gekennzeichnet. Ein zukünftig steigender Wasserbedarf in Folge von Bevölkerungswachstum und ökonomischer Entwicklung sowie eine geringere Wasserverfügbarkeit durch mögliche Klimaänderungen können dort zu einer Verschärfung der vielfach schon heute auftretenden Wasserknappheit führen. Das Verständnis der Mechanismen und Wechselwirkungen des komplexen Systems von Mensch und Umwelt sowie die quantitative Bestimmung zukünftiger Veränderungen in der Menge, der zeitlichen Verteilung und der Qualität von Wasserressourcen sind eine grundlegende Voraussetzung für die Entwicklung von nachhaltigen Maßnahmen des Wassermanagements mit dem Ziel einer höheren Anpassungsfähigkeit dieser Regionen gegenüber künftigen Änderungen. Hierzu sind dynamische integrierte Modelle unerlässlich, die als eine Komponente ein hydrologisches Modell beinhalten. <br /> Vorrangiges Ziel dieser Arbeit ist daher die Erstellung eines hydrologischen Modells zur großräumigen Bestimmung der Wasserverfügbarkeit unter sich ändernden Umweltbedingungen in semiariden Gebieten.<br /> Als Untersuchungsraum dient der im semiariden tropischen Nordosten Brasiliens gelegene Bundestaat Ceará (150 000 km2). Die mittleren Jahresniederschläge in diesem Gebiet liegen bei 850 mm innerhalb einer etwa fünfmonatigen Regenzeit. Mit vorwiegend kristallinem Grundgebirge und geringmächtigen Böden stellt Oberflächenwasser den größten Teil der Wasserversorgung bereit. Die Region war wiederholt von Dürren betroffen, die zu schweren ökonomischen Schäden und sozialen Folgen wie Migration aus den ländlichen Gebieten geführt haben. <br /> Das hier entwickelte hydrologische Modell Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) ist ein deterministisches, flächendifferenziertes Modell, das aus konzeptionellen, prozess-basierten Ansätzen aufgebaut ist. Die Wasserverfügbarkeit (Abfluss im Gewässernetz, Speicherung in Stauseen, Bodenfeuchte) wird mit täglicher Auflösung bestimmt. Als räumliche Zieleinheiten können Teileinzugsgebiete, Rasterzellen oder administrative Einheiten (Gemeinden) gewählt werden. Letztere ermöglichen die Kopplung des Modells im Rahmen der integrierten Modellierung mit Modulen, die nicht auf der Basis natürlicher Raumeinheiten arbeiten.<br /> Im Rahmen eines neuen skalenübergreifenden, hierarchischen Ansatzes werden in Wasa die genannten Zieleinheiten in kleinere räumliche Modellierungseinheiten unterteilt. Die ausgewiesenen Landschaftseinheiten erfassen insbesondere die strukturierte Variabilität von Gelände-, Boden- und Vegetationseigenschaften entlang von Toposequenzen in ihrem Einfluss auf Bodenfeuchte und Abflussbildung. Laterale hydrologische Prozesse auf kleiner Skala, wie die für semiaride Bedingungen bedeutsame Wiederversickerung von Oberflächenabfluss, können somit auch in der erforderlichen großskaligen Modellanwendung vereinfacht wiedergegeben werden. In Abhängigkeit von der Auflösung der verfügbaren Daten wird in Wasa die kleinskalige Variabilität nicht räumlich explizit sondern über die Verteilung von Flächenanteilen subskaliger Einheiten und über statistische Übergangshäufigkeiten für laterale Flüsse zwischen den Einheiten berücksichtigt.<br /> Weitere Modellkomponenten von Wasa, die spezifische Bedingungen semiarider Gebiete berücksichtigen, sind: <br /> (1) Ein Zwei-Schichten-Modell zur Bestimmung der Evapotranspiration berücksichtigt auch den Energieumsatz an der Bodenoberfläche (inklusive Bodenverdunstung), der in Anbetracht der meist lichten Vegetationsbedeckung von Bedeutung ist. Die Vegetationsparameter werden zudem flächen- und zeitdifferenziert in Abhängigkeit vom Auftreten der Regenzeit modifiziert. <br /> (2) Das Infiltrationsmodul bildet insbesondere Oberflächenabfluss durch Infiltrationsüberschuss als dominierender Abflusskomponente ab. <br /> (3) Zur aggregierten Beschreibung der Wasserbilanz von im Modell nicht einzeln erfassbaren Stauseen wird ein Speichermodell unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Größenklassen und ihrer Interaktion über das Gewässernetz eingesetzt. <br /> (4) Ein Modell zur Bestimmung der Entnahme durch Wassernutzung in verschiedenen Sektoren ist an Wasa gekoppelt. <br /> (5) Ein Kaskadenmodell zur zeitlichen Disaggregierung von Niederschlagszeitreihen, das in dieser Arbeit speziell für tropische konvektive Niederschlagseigenschaften angepasst wird, wird zur Erzeugung höher aufgelöster Niederschlagsdaten verwendet.<br /> Alle Modellparameter von Wasa können von physiographischen Gebietsinformationen abgeleitet werden, sodass eine Modellkalibrierung primär nicht erforderlich ist. <br /> Die Modellanwendung von Wasa für historische Zeitreihen ergibt im Allgemeinen eine gute Übereinstimmung der Simulationsergebnisse für Abfluss und Stauseespeichervolumen mit Beobachtungsdaten in unterschiedlich großen Einzugsgebieten. Die mittlere Wasserbilanz sowie die hohe monatliche und jährliche Variabilität wird vom Modell angemessen wiedergegeben. Die Grenzen der Anwendbarkeit des Modell-konzepts zeigen sich am deutlichsten in Teilgebieten mit Abflusskomponenten aus tieferen Grundwasserleitern, deren Dynamik ohne Kalibrierung nicht zufriedenstellend abgebildet werden kann.<br /> Die Modellanwendungen zeigen weiterhin:<br /> (1) Laterale Prozesse der Umverteilung von Bodenfeuchte und Abfluss auf der Hangskala, vor allem die Wiederversickerung von Oberflächenabfluss, führen auf der Skala von Einzugsgebieten zu deutlich kleineren Abflussvolumen als die einfache Summe der Abflüsse der Teilflächen. Diese Prozesse sollten daher auch in großskaligen Modellen abgebildet werden. Die unterschiedliche Ausprägung dieser Prozesse für unterschiedliche Bedingungen zeigt sich an Hand einer prozentual größeren Verringerung der Abflussvolumen in trockenen im Vergleich zu feuchten Jahren.<br /> (2) Die Niederschlagseigenschaften haben einen sehr großen Einfluss auf die hydrologische Reaktion in semiariden Gebieten. Insbesondere die durch die grobe zeitliche Auflösung des Modells und durch Interpolationseffekte unterschätzten Niederschlagsintensitäten in den Eingangsdaten und die daraus folgende Unterschätzung von Abflussvolumen müssen im Modell kompensiert werden. Ein Skalierungsfaktor in der Infiltrationsroutine oder die Verwendung disaggregierter stündlicher Niederschlagsdaten zeigen hier gute Ergebnisse.<br /> Die Simulationsergebnisse mit Wasa sind insgesamt durch große Unsicherheiten gekennzeichnet. Diese sind einerseits in Unsicherheiten der Modellstruktur zur adäquaten Beschreibung der relevanten hydrologischen Prozesse begründet, andererseits in Daten- und Parametersunsicherheiten in Anbetracht der geringen Datenverfügbarkeit. Von besonderer Bedeutung ist: <br /> (1) Die Unsicherheit der Niederschlagsdaten in ihrem räumlichen Muster und ihrer zeitlichen Struktur hat wegen der stark nicht-linearen hydrologischen Reaktion einen großen Einfluss auf die Simulationsergebnisse.<br /> (2) Die Unsicherheit von Bodenparametern hat im Vergleich zu Vegetationsparametern und topographischen Parametern im Allgemeinen einen größeren Einfluss auf die Modellunsicherheit.<br /> (3) Der Effekt der Unsicherheit einzelner Modellkomponenten und -parameter ist für Jahre mit unter- oder überdurchschnittlichen Niederschlagsvolumen zumeist unterschiedlich, da einzelne hydrologische Prozesse dann jeweils unterschiedlich relevant sind. Die Unsicherheit einzelner Modellkomponenten- und parameter hat somit eine unterschiedliche Bedeutung für die Unsicherheit von Szenarienrechnungen mit steigenden oder fallenden Niederschlagstrends.<br /> (4) Der bedeutendste Unsicherheitsfaktor für Szenarien der Wasserverfügbarkeit für die Untersuchungsregion ist die Unsicherheit der den regionalen Klimaszenarien zu Grunde liegenden Ergebnisse globaler Klimamodelle. Eine deutliche Zunahme oder Abnahme der Niederschläge bis 2050 kann gemäß den hier vorliegenden Daten für das Untersuchungsgebiet gleichermaßen angenommen werden.<br /> Modellsimulationen für Klimaszenarien bis zum Jahr 2050 ergeben, dass eine mögliche zukünftige Veränderung der Niederschlagsmengen zu einer prozentual zwei- bis dreifach größeren Veränderung der Abflussvolumen führt. Im Falle eines Trends von abnehmenden Niederschlagsmengen besteht in der Untersuchungsregion die Tendenz, dass auf Grund der gegenseitigen Beeinflussung der großen Zahl von Stauseen beim Rückhalt der tendenziell abnehmenden Abflussvolumen die Effizienz von neugebauten Stauseen zur Sicherung der Wasserverfügbarkeit zunehmend geringer wird.

Prairie dogs (Cynomys sp.) are considered keystone species and ecosystem engineers for their grazing and burrowing activities (summarized here as disturbances). As climate changes and its variability increases, the mechanisms underlying organisms' interactions with their habitat will likely shift. Understanding the mediating role of prairie dog disturbance on vegetation structure, and its interaction with environmental conditions through time, will increase knowledge on the risks and vulnerability of grasslands. Here, we compared how plant taxonomical diversity, functional diversity metrics, and community-weighted trait means (CWM) respond to prairie dog C. mexicanus disturbance across grassland types and seasons (dry and wet) in a priority conservation semiarid grassland of Northeast Mexico. Our findings suggest that functional metrics and CWM analyses responded to interactions between prairie dog disturbance, grassland type and season, whilst species diversity and cover measures were less sensitive to the role of prairie dog disturbance. We found weak evidence that prairie dog disturbance has a negative effect on vegetation structure, except for minimal effects on C4 and graminoid cover, but which depended mainly on season. Grassland type and season explained most of the effects on plant functional and taxonomic diversity as well as CWM traits. Furthermore, we found that leaf area as well as forb and annual cover increased during the wet season, independent of prairie dog disturbance. Our results provide evidence that grassland type and season have a stronger effect than prairie dog disturbance on the vegetation of this short-grass, water-restricted grassland ecosystem. We argue that focusing solely on disturbance and grazing effects is misleading, and attention is needed on the relationships between vegetation and environmental conditions which will be critical to understand semiarid grassland dynamics under future climate change conditions in the region.