No description available.

This dissertation examines to what extent off-farm diversification may be an appropriate and accessible tool to mitigate the adverse effects from market failures and incompleteness in the crop and farm income insurance market. While the influence of the nonfarm sector has long been recognized as a primary force in shaping farm structure, off-farm income is rarely acknowledge as a risk management tool for operators and households of commercial farms. The dissertation develops a dynamic model that includes capital market imperfections, economies of scale in farm production, and the presence of adjustment costs in labor allocation decisions. The model provides a realistic characterization of the environment defining income and financial risks faced by farm operators, as well as the risk management alternatives available to them. It is found that introducing off-farm labor can substantially mitigate the adverse effects of farm income risk on farm operators' and households' welfare, even for larger commercial farms. However, the diversification of labor by the main operator seems to impose labor and managerial constraints that can reduce the intensity and technical efficiency of the farm production. Alternatively, diversification at the household level through the allocation of spousal labor off the farm provides benefits in mitigating the adverse effects of farm income risk on farm production and efficiency, and on operators and households welfare. It thus provides an efficient risk management alternative that is consistent with most rationales that are invoked to justify farm policies. Results suggest that the increasing incidence and importance of off-farm income within the farm population of most OECD countries is highly relevant in the design of effective farm policies This form of diversification can reduce the need and effectiveness of farm income stabilization polices. While it has been argued elsewhere that broader economic policies had a large influence in closing the income gap between farm and urban households, such policies may also have a role to play in addressing farm income risk issues and, in some cases, may represent more sustainable and efficient policy alternatives.

Les dernières décennies ont été marquées la surexploitation de nombreux stocks de ressources marines. Po ur limiter ce déclin et restaurer les communautés impactées, l'instauration de mesures de gestion s'est révélée nécessaire. Les Aires Marines Protégées (AMP), initialement développées pour protéger les habitats remarquables et la biodiversité associée, sont de plus en plus utilisées en tant qu'outil de gestion spatialisée des activités de pêche.L'objectif de cette thèse était d'évaluer à l'aide d'indicateurs et de modèles prédictifs (i) l'impact de la mise en place de la Réserve Naturelle des Bouches de Bonifacio (Corse) sur les communautés de poissons et (ii) les bénéfices de ce type de gestion pour l'activité de pêche artisanale locale. Nous avons ensuite développé un modèle et testé (iii) les scénarios de gestion les mieux adaptés au maintien de la ressource de langouste rouge, en déclin dans la réserve, et à son exploitation durable. Les données de captures de la pêche artisanale du sud de la Corse nous ont permis de mettre en évidence l'impact de la pêche plaisancière sur la structure et la biomasse des communautés exploitées. Bien que la forte diminution de l'effort de pêche ait pu contribuer à une augmentation des captures par unité d'effort, l'analyse sous forme de groupes de réponse nous a permis de mettre en évidence une augmentation différenciée des captures de la pêche artisanale en fonction de l'intérêt des espèces pour la chasse au harpon. De plus, nous avons remarqué que la réglementation de la RNBB ne semble pas suffire à la protection d'une espèce emblématique, la langouste rouge. Les indicateurs issus de l'outil de modélisation ISIS-Fish nous ont permis de constater la nécessité d'une restriction plus importante de l'accès à cette ressource dans l'objectif d'une pêche durable. / These last decades have been characterized by a great development of fishing techniques, contributing to the overexploitation of numerous marine fish stocks. In order to limit this collapse and to restore impacted communities, the implementation of management measures was necessary. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), initially developed to protect remarkable habitats and associated biodiversity, are more and more used as a tool for spatial management of fishing activities, by adult export and/or larvae migrations from protected zones to surrounding fisheries.The aim of this PhD was to evaluate using indicators and predictive models (i) the impact of the Bonifacio Strait Natural Reserve (Corse) implementation on fish communities and (ii) the benefits of such management measures for the local artisanal fishery. We then developed a model and tested (iii) management scenarios for maintaining the spiny lobster resource, en decline in the reserve, into a sustainable exploitation way.Artisanal fishery catch data from south Corsica has permitted to highlight the indirect impact of recreational fishing on exploited fish communities structure and biomass. Whereas a decrease of the fishing effort may contribute to increasing catches per unit effort (CPUE), the analysis using response groups helped us to reveal differentiated increase of the artisanal fishery catches considering the interest of species to spearfishing. Moreover, we noticed than even if the BSNR legislation represents a benefit for many species, it is not sufficient for the emblematic red spiny lobster recover. Indicators issued from the ISIS-Fish model showed that higher restrictions on this resource access are necessary in the objective of sustainable fisheries.

Orientador: Aparecido Carlos Gonçalves / Resumo: Pares engrenados são elementos de transmissão de potência amplamente utilizados em máquinas e equipamentos, todavia as falhas catastróficas desses componentes são comuns e dispendiosas. A análise de vibrações está entre as técnicas de diagnóstico de defeitos incipientes utilizadas em manutenção preditiva, posto que a presença de uma falha altera o comportamento dinâmico do sistema e o estado de degradação pode ser detectado pelo monitoramento dos sinais de vibração. Na indústria atual, onde as aquisições de dados, tanto para controle de processos, quanto para o monitoramento das condições de integridade de equipamentos, são realizadas em tempo real, faz-se necessário o desenvolvimento de métodos que aumentem a confiabilidade das tomadas de decisões em relação à identificação, localização e prognóstico de falhas. O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver um modelo matemático de par de engrenagens que auxilie no monitoramento da condição e validar o modelo dinâmico com dados de vibração de um multiplicador de velocidades obtidos experimentalmente. Para tanto, foi elaborada uma metodologia baseada no modelo dinâmico de par engrenado com 6 graus de liberdade para simulação de sinais de vibração; nesse modelo, inclui-se erros geométricos no perfil do dente; de maneira analítica, simula-se uma a trinca do dente de uma das engrenagens que ocasiona a queda de rigidez em função do tempo; desenvolveu-se também um experimento com um multiplicador de velocidades; e, por fim, algumas técnic... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: Spur gears are transmission power elements widely used in machinery, however catastrophic failures of this components are just as common and onerous. Vibration analysis is a technique, in among of others, that can be used in diagnostics of incipient damages, common in predictive maintenance, because they change the dynamic behavior of the mechanical system, and the degradation state can be detected by vibration signal or noise. In the current industry production, in which real-time data acquisition - whether for processes control, or for health condition monitoring of equipment - is the reality, it is necessary to develop auxiliary methods that provide high reliability to identification, localization and failure prognostics. In this work, the main objective is to provide a spur gears’ model-based methodology for condition-monitoring and to validate a dynamic model with experimental vibration data of a gearbox. Hence, a dynamic model of spur meshing gears was developed considering a 6 degrees of freedom and time-varying meshing stiffness to simulate vibrations signals; a tooth profile error was also included; in this analytical model, a straight crack was simulated by reducing the meshing stiffness in a tooth; experiments with a gearbox experimental set were run; and, some signal processing was apllied in the vibration data. The results allowed the model validation with the comparison between simulate and experimental signals, in time-domain and frequency-domain / Mestre

With the fast progress of the Internet the Swedish gambling monopoly is no longer able to control the market. Gambling companies licensed in foreign countries can compete with Svenska Spel via the Internet offering lower prices. The authors investigated whether the competition has lead Svenska Spel to lower their prices. Focus has been put on the years 2000-2006 and on Svenska Spel’s sports betting section Oddset since competition here is high. To help analysing Svenska Spel’s pricing behaviour the dynamic limit pricing model of optimal pricing when faced with entry was used. The effect on Svenska Spel´s advertising expenditures following the competition was also investigated. For this part A dynamic model of advertising and market shares was used. The analysis indicates that when the number of firms on the market increased, prices decreased and Svenska Spel’s advertising expenses increased.

This thesis treats the subject of a complete steady state and dynamic model of the VSC-HVDC covering both the AC and DC system-side of the converter. The topology of the model is recreated after the scheduled transmission line in the south of Sweden, called SydVästlänken. The topology covers both a simple two terminal connection as well as a multi-terminal one. This model is to be implemented in the power system simulation program ARISTO. The main directive of the model is operation planning and education during real-time scenarios. The model is deliberately designed as a complete and complex model but with methods of reducing it's complexity to suit the users needs at the time for implementation. Further more the author have made sure that it is a complete generic model to suit the application of the program as the technology to the day of this study are unknown. Lastly, a method of controlling the converters are presented where Droop-control take a prominent roll as the AC and DC voltage regulator.

<p>With the fast progress of the Internet the Swedish gambling monopoly is no longer able to control the market. Gambling companies licensed in foreign countries can compete with Svenska Spel via the Internet offering lower prices. The authors investigated whether the competition has lead Svenska Spel to lower their prices. Focus has been put on the years 2000-2006 and on Svenska Spel’s sports betting section Oddset since competition here is high. To help analysing Svenska Spel’s pricing behaviour the dynamic limit pricing model of optimal pricing when faced with entry was used.</p><p>The effect on Svenska Spel´s advertising expenditures following the competition was also investigated. For this part A dynamic model of advertising and market shares was used.</p><p>The analysis indicates that when the number of firms on the market increased, prices decreased and Svenska Spel’s advertising expenses increased.</p>

Estimation of static and dynamic petrophysical properties of multi-layer hydrocarbon reservoirs is crucial for the assessment of storage and flow capacities, compartmentalization, and for best primary or enhanced recovery practices. Interactive numerical simulation to reproduce field logs and core data is a reliable procedure to estimate static and dynamic petrophysical properties of complex rock formations. Previously, Voss et al. (2009) introduced the concept of Common Stratigraphic Framework (CSF) to construct and cross-validate multi-layer static/dynamic petrophysical models by invoking the interactive, numerical simulation of well logs both before and after invasion. This thesis documents the successful implementation of the CSF concept to examine and quantify the effects of mud-filtrate invasion on apparent resistivity, nuclear, and magnetic resonance logs acquired in San Martin, Cashiriari and Pagoreni gas fields in Camisea, Peru. Conventional petrophysical interpretation methods yield abnormally high estimates of water saturation in some of the reservoir units that produce gas with null water influx. This anomalous behavior is due to relatively low values of deep apparent electrical resistivity, and has otherwise been attributed to the presence of clay-coating grains and/or electrically conductive grain minerals. On the other hand, electrical resistivity logs exhibit substantial invasion effects as evidenced by the separation of apparent resistivity logs (both LWD and wireline) with multiple radial lengths of investigation. In extreme cases, apparent resistivity logs “stack” because of very deep invasion. We diagnose and quantify invasion effects on resistivity and nuclear logs with interactive numerical modeling before and after invasion. The assimilation of such effects in the interpretation consistently decreases previous estimates of water saturation to those of irreducible water saturation inferred from core data. It is shown that capillary pressure effects are responsible for the difference in separation of resistivity curves in some of the reservoir units. The final multi-layer CSF is in agreement with gas production measurements and permits reliable flow predictions to assist in reservoir engineering and production studies. / text

Baigiamajame darbe nagrinėjamos visureigio automobilio dinaminės charakteristikos bei pagrindiniai jas lemiantys parametrai, ieškoma būdų šių parametrų pagerinimui. Taip pat darbe apžvelgiamos automobilį veikiančios jėgos, apžvelgiama automobilio masės bei įkrovos lygio įtaka automobilio dinamikai, priekabos įtaka automobilio stabilumui bei valdomumui. Atlikus eksperimentinius visureigio automobilio kėbulo svyravimų bandymus priklausomai nuo: priekabos įkrovos, kelio dangos, bei transporto priemonės ir transporto priemonių junginio greičio gauti rezultatai išanalizuoti ir palyginti tarpusavyje. Pateikiami skaitinius bandymų rezultatus atitinkantys grafikai. Išvadose apibendrinami tyrimo rezultatai. / This master thesis analysis dynamic characteristics of all – terrain vehicle, main parameters having impact on them, searches for ways to improve them. The paper also reviews the forces operating on the vehicle, reviews the impact of the vehicle’s weight and the level of load on the dynamics of the vehicle, the influence of a trailer on the stability and controllability of the vehicle. The results of the experimental tests of all – terrain vehicles body’s swinging were analyzed and compared. The charts depicting numeric results of tests are provided. The conclusions summarize the results of the research.

Įvairių sričių reiškinių matematiniai modeliai apima daug faktorių, kurie yra priklausomi nuo laiko, o taip pat pastebima jų tarpusavio priklausomybė. Vadinasi, norint nagrinėt šių reiškinių kitimo dėsnius, patartina sudaryti šių procesų dinaminį modelį. Šiame darbe dinaminio modelio sudarymui naudojami indikatoriai. Indikatorius tai specialus rodiklis, kuriuo pasinaudojus galima skaitiškai įvertinti svarbius analizuojamos srities faktorius. Indikatorių reikšmės gaunamos iš statistinių duomenų. Diferencialinių lygčių sistemos koeficientams skaičiuoti pristatomi du būdai: algebrinis ir mažiausių kvadratų metodai. Indikatorių išraiškas, gautas išsprendus diferencialinių lygčių sistemą, galima panaudoti prognozavimui. Tačiau įgyvendinant naujus projektus, šias indikatorių išraiškas reikia patikslinti, atsižvelgiant į naujus faktorius. Kadangi naujų faktorių reikšmės nėra tiksliai žinomos (gautos iš ekspertinio vertinimo), jų įtaka sistemai yra išreiškiama atsitiktiniu dydžiu su žinomu tikimybiniu skirstiniu. Naujų faktorių įtaka indikatoriams dinaminiame modelyje yra patikslinama Bajeso metodu. Kaip pavyzdys, sudarytas dinaminis modelis pritaikytas energijos tiekimo saugumo indikatorių modeliavimui. / In many areas mathematical models of processes take into acount variuos time dependent factors, they also can be dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model. In this master thesis we use indicators to describe dynamic model. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to inportant factors for the investigated sector. The values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. There are presented two calculation ways of differential equations systems coefficients (using algebraic and least square methods). Furthermore created dynamic model enables us to forecast the dynamics of the indicators according to new factors. Since the parameters of different new factors are not exactly known (got from expert judgement), their influence on indicators are expressed as random variables with known probablistic distributions. Indicators model based on historical data is adjusted using a Bayesian approach. For practical demonstration of the proposed dynamic model energy security assessment indicators were chosen.