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Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / One of the assumptions of conventional regression analysis is I that the parameters are constant over all observations. It has often been suggested that this may not be a valid assumption to make, particularly if the econometric model is to be used for economic forecasting0 Apart from this it is also found that econometric models, in particular, are used to investigate the underlying interrelationships of the system under consideration in order to understand and to explain relevant phenomena in structural analysis. The pre-requisite of such use of econometrics is that the regression parameters of the model is assumed to be constant over time or across different crosssectional units.

Thesis advisor: Alicia Munnell / Thesis advisor: Tony Webb / Risk level of investments helps to determine investment return in the long run. Consequently, it is important to understand how investors determine their acceptable level of risk. Previous studies have suggested that women have a lower risk tolerance in investing than men. This is troubling because it means that women are likely to make lower returns on investments than men. This difference in acceptable risk could lead to income inequality between men and women during retirement as people rely on wealth generated from investments made during their lifetime to live during this stage of life. This study seeks to explain what motivates women to choose their acceptable level of investment risk by expanding on the models of previous studies, which are believed to be overly simplistic in their treatment of gender. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2008. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

O presente trabalho analisa a evolução da indústria brasileira de celulose no período de 1980 a 2005, enfocando três objetivos específicos: 1) analisar a estrutura e o desempenho da indústria brasileira de celulose, avaliando sua produção, exportação e custo de produção. Ao mesmo tempo, discute-se a reorganização dessa indústria a partir da década de 1980 e ressalta as mudanças que surgiram e seus impactos na competitividade da indústria; 2) identificar as pesquisas e inovações tecnológicas que ocorrem nas áreas florestal e industrial e ressaltar seus possíveis impactos sobre a competitividade da indústria brasileira de celulose; e 3) analisar a evolução das exportações brasileiras de celulose, elaborando um modelo econométrico para evidenciar os principais determinantes de sua oferta e demanda. Quanto ao primeiro objetivo desse trabalho, a estrutura e o desempenho da indústria brasileira de celulose foram analisados pelas seguintes variáveis: produção, exportação, custo de produção, número de empresas e, também, índices de concentração. Constatou-se que o Brasil vem ampliando e ganhando marketshare nas exportações de celulose. Esse desempenho exportador é causado, principalmente, pelas vantagens de custo de produção. Para analisar o segundo objetivo dessa dissertação, utilizou-se dados primários, coletados através questionários e a revisão de literatura, a fim de se realizar um levantamento das principais inovações tecnológicas ocorridas na silvicultura e produção industrial de celulose. Ao longo dos anos 80 e 90 e nos anos 2000, pesquisas ocorreram em diferentes intensidades, nas distintas etapas de produção florestal e industrial. Os dados das entrevistas, organizados na forma tabular e gráfica, bem como analisados pelo teste de Wilconox, ressaltam melhoria nas inovações tecnológicas em etapas do processo produtivo que trouxeram expressivos aumentos de produtividade na silvicultura e na produção industrial de celulose e que implicaram redução no custo de produção da celulose. Esta útima elevou a rentabilidade do setor, causando sua expansão. No terceiro objetivo desse trabalho, foram realizadas estimativas das equações de oferta e demanda de celulose para o período de 1980 a 2005. Em relação à oferta de celulose, as variáveis preço brasileiro da celulose exportada e exportações defasada foram significativas a 20% e a 1%, respectivamente. Já o custo de produção não apresentou significância estatística, mas teve o sinal esperado. A elasticidade-preço da oferta brasileira de celulose foi de 0,40, ou seja, trata-se de inelástica em relação ao seu preço. Em relação à estimativa da equação de demanda, o preço da celulose brasileira e a demanda internacional de celulose foram significativos a 1%. A elasticidade-preço da demanda de celulose encontrada foi -0,69 indicando que a demanda pela celulose brasileira é inelástica com relação ao seu preço. Por outro lado, a elasticidade da quantidade demandada de celulose brasileira em relação à demanda internacional desse produto foi 2,17, indicando que a quantidade demandada da celulose brasileira é elástica em relação à demanda internacional desse produto. / The present dissertation analyses the evolution of Brazilian pulp industry from 1980 to 2005, paying attention to three specific objectives: (1) analysis of the Brazilian pulp industry?s structure and performance, evaluating its production, exports and production costs. Besides that, the dissertation discusses the reorganization of this industry since the 1980\'s and highlights the changes that happened and their impacts on the sector\'s competitiveness; (2) Identify the researches and technological innovations that took place in forest and industrial areas, and emphasize their possible impacts on the competitiveness of Brazilian pulp industry; (3) analyze the evolution of the Brazilian pulp exports, elaborating an econometric model to evidence the main determinants of supply and demand for these exports. In relation to the first objective of this work, the structure and performance of the Brazilian pulp industry were analyzed through the following variables: production, export, production costs, number of enterprises, and also concentration indexes. It was evidenced that Brazil is increasing its market share in pulp exports. The increase of exports is mainly due to production cost advantages what associate to innovations in forest and industrial areas. To analyze the second objective of this dissertation, primary data, collected through questionnaires, and literature review were used to realize a survey of the main technological innovations that had occurred in silviculture and in Brazilian pulp production. Throughout the 1980\'s and 1990\'s and during the six first years of the 2000\'s, researches occurred in different intensities, in the distinct stages of industrial and forest production. The primary data organized in tables and graphs, as well as analyzed by Wilconox test, highlight the improves in the technological innovations in the stages of the production process what brought significant increases of productivity in silviculture and in the pulp industrial production, causing the reduction of pulp production cost. The latter enlarged sector\'s profitability, causing its expansion. In the third objective, supply and demand equations for pulp exports were run for data ranging from 1980 to 2005. Regarding to the pulp supply, Brazilian exported pulp price and lagged exports were statistically significant at 20% and 1% level, respectively. The production cost did not show statistically significant, but it had the expected signal. The price elasticity of Brazilian pulp supply was 0.4, so it is inelastic in relation to its price. The demand elasticity price founded was -0.69, indicating the quantity of Brazilian pulp demanded is inelastic in relation to its price. Meanwhile, the elasticity of Brazilian pulp demanded quantity in relation to international demand of this product was 2.17, indicating the demanded quantity of Brazilian pulp is elastic in relation to the international demand of the product.

This thesis deals with the appropriate handling of spatial data in general, and in particular in the framework of economic sciences. An overview of well known methods from the field of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics is given. Furthermore a special class of spatial objects is described, namely objects that are that far apart from all other observations in the dataset, that they are not connected to them anymore. Different treatments of such objects are suggested and their influence on the Moran's I test for spatial autocorrelation is analyzed in more detail. After this theoretical part some adequate spatial methods are applied to the well-known problem of R&D spillovers. The corresponding dataset is not obviously spatial, nevertheless spatial methods can be used. The spatial contiguity matrix is based on an economic distance measure instead of the commonly used geographic distances. Finally, optimal design theory and spatial analysis are combined via a new criterion. This criterion was developed to be able to take a potential spatial dependency of the data points into account. The aim is to find the best design points that show the same spatial dependence structure as the true population. (author's abstract)

Tourism - in particular its determinants and effects - is an issue presently attracting much attention worldwide. International tourism is considered to be the largest single item of the world's foreign trade and for some countries it is the most important export industry and earner of foreign exchange. In addition to its economic significance, tourism contributes to the quality of life. It produces intangible benefits which are directly related to the physical and psychological health of people, and the enjoyment of the right to rest and free time. This applies with equal validity to both domestic and international tourism; the latter establishing international economic, political and socio-cultural links, as well as strengthening the domestic character of a nation. At the individual level, tourism satisfies the need to travel in search for relief from the stress of work and the routine of daily life in the big urban centres. At macro (country) level, tourism is, therefore, a human and economic activity which concerns most of us in many parts of the world, directly or indirectly. One country for which foreign tourism is of considerable importance is Greece. In order to identify likely supply constraints (e. g. tourist accommodation and basic infrastructure) and to establish the major market segments of Greek tourism, the growth and structure of foreign tourism in Greece between 1960 and 1984 is examined. Special attention is given to the magnitude of tourism in Greece and its economic effects on the national economy. The non-economic effects of tourism are also considered. This is followed by the construction of a tourist profile so that the types of foreign visitors that go to Greece are identified. Subsequently, an econometric model is developed and empirical results provided to explain foreign tourist arrivals in Greece and to assess the impact of promotional expenditure by the Greek National Tourist Organisation in a number of foreign tourist generating markets. Finally, a tourism marketing planning model is devised which highlights the main variables affecting the international tourism marketing policies of the Greek National Tourist Organisation and, in particular, empirical results are used in conjunction with- a tourism market choice matrix for selecting market targeting strategies. The major conclusion emerging from the research is that as the tourist industry in Greece is of vital importance, the adoption of a strategic, interdisciplinary and integrated tourism planning process along with the establishment of a tactically orientated task unit could provide important improvements in the effectiveness and contribution of tourism in Greece. A few proposals regarding future policies by the Greek authorities are made, such as the establishment of a co-ordinating body orchestrating the efforts of the appropriate groups relevant to the multifaceted nature of tourism.

The purpose of this thesis is to explore the possibilities and advantages of describing macroeconomic relationships with a certain well-defined class of parametric nonlinear econometric models, called smooth transition regressions (STR). An STR model is a flexible nonlinear specification with a continuum of regimes. It is locally linear transitions from one extreme regime to another are determined by a function of a continuous variable, the transition variable.The thesis consists of four essays and the macroeconomic relationships that are considered are: Consumption, Money Demand and the Phillips Curve. The essays of this dissertation emphasise the importance of allowing for a flexible functional form when dealing with macroeconomic relationships. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk.

Submitted by ADRIANO FERREIRA DE MORAES null (adriano_afmoraes@hotmail.com) on 2017-10-02T23:51:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Adriano_Ferreira_de_Moraes.pdf: 1207340 bytes, checksum: f0cc7e7033a1326e1d5e10d4c8a60e5c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Monique Sasaki (sayumi_sasaki@hotmail.com) on 2017-10-03T16:16:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 moraes_af_me_jabo.pdf: 1207340 bytes, checksum: f0cc7e7033a1326e1d5e10d4c8a60e5c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-03T16:16:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 moraes_af_me_jabo.pdf: 1207340 bytes, checksum: f0cc7e7033a1326e1d5e10d4c8a60e5c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-09-04 / Análises econômicas resultam em ferramentas importantes na definição de políticas e medidas estruturantes para qualquer setor de produção, particularmente no setor de produtos agrícolas. Esta pesquisa teve como objetivos a avaliação de fatores que afetam a oferta cafeeira da região Nordeste do estado de São Paulo, por meio de modelagem econométrica. As variáveis utilizadas na pesquisa foram a "produção do café" (em sacas de 60 kg), a "produtividade do café" (em sacas 60 kg por hectares), "área plantada de café" (em hectares), "preço do café" no mercado (em reais por saca de 60 kg) e preços (em reais) de produtos concorrentes, como do "kg de açúcar" e da "dúzia de laranjas". Os dados são anuais e foram obtidos junto ao Instituto de Economia Agrícola (IEA), no Centro de Estudos em Economia Aplicada, referentes a 16 municípios dessa região, no período de 1995 a 2015. As análises foram realizadas com o auxílio do software GRETL (Gnu, Regression, Econometrics and Time-Series Library), com modelos de regressão linear múltipla do tipo log-log, considerando como variável dependente a "produção de café" e seguindo metodologia descrita e Gujarati e Porter (2011). Os resultados obtidos mostraram que a área plantada, a produtividade e o preço do café foram as variáveis determinantes da oferta, apresentando impacto positivo, no período de 1995 a 2015. Os preços dos produtos concorrentes, açúcar e laranja, não tiveram impactos significativos na oferta de café na região pesquisada, no período de 1995 a 2015. / Economic analyzes result in important tools in the definition of policies and structural measures for any production sector, particularly in the agricultural products sector. The objective of this study was to evaluate factors affecting coffee supply in the Northeast region of the state of São Paulo, using econometric modeling based on a log-log multiple regression. The variables used were production (the dependent variable), productivity (sacks 60 kg per hectare), planted area (hectares), prices of coffee (sack 60 kg), sugar (kg) and orange (dozen) . The data cover the period from 1995 to 2015 and were withdrawn from the Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA) at the Center for Applied Economics Studies. Multiple log-log linear regression models were developed using the software GRETL (Gnu, Regression, Econometrics and Time-Series Library), and the methodology proposed by Gujarati and Porter (2011). The results showed that the planted area, the productivity and the price of coffee were the determinants of supply, with a positive impact, from 1995 to 2015. The prices of competing products, sugar and orange, did not have a significant impact on supply in the region surveyed, from 1995 to 2015.

O presente trabalho analisa a evolução da indústria brasileira de celulose no período de 1980 a 2005, enfocando três objetivos específicos: 1) analisar a estrutura e o desempenho da indústria brasileira de celulose, avaliando sua produção, exportação e custo de produção. Ao mesmo tempo, discute-se a reorganização dessa indústria a partir da década de 1980 e ressalta as mudanças que surgiram e seus impactos na competitividade da indústria; 2) identificar as pesquisas e inovações tecnológicas que ocorrem nas áreas florestal e industrial e ressaltar seus possíveis impactos sobre a competitividade da indústria brasileira de celulose; e 3) analisar a evolução das exportações brasileiras de celulose, elaborando um modelo econométrico para evidenciar os principais determinantes de sua oferta e demanda. Quanto ao primeiro objetivo desse trabalho, a estrutura e o desempenho da indústria brasileira de celulose foram analisados pelas seguintes variáveis: produção, exportação, custo de produção, número de empresas e, também, índices de concentração. Constatou-se que o Brasil vem ampliando e ganhando marketshare nas exportações de celulose. Esse desempenho exportador é causado, principalmente, pelas vantagens de custo de produção. Para analisar o segundo objetivo dessa dissertação, utilizou-se dados primários, coletados através questionários e a revisão de literatura, a fim de se realizar um levantamento das principais inovações tecnológicas ocorridas na silvicultura e produção industrial de celulose. Ao longo dos anos 80 e 90 e nos anos 2000, pesquisas ocorreram em diferentes intensidades, nas distintas etapas de produção florestal e industrial. Os dados das entrevistas, organizados na forma tabular e gráfica, bem como analisados pelo teste de Wilconox, ressaltam melhoria nas inovações tecnológicas em etapas do processo produtivo que trouxeram expressivos aumentos de produtividade na silvicultura e na produção industrial de celulose e que implicaram redução no custo de produção da celulose. Esta útima elevou a rentabilidade do setor, causando sua expansão. No terceiro objetivo desse trabalho, foram realizadas estimativas das equações de oferta e demanda de celulose para o período de 1980 a 2005. Em relação à oferta de celulose, as variáveis preço brasileiro da celulose exportada e exportações defasada foram significativas a 20% e a 1%, respectivamente. Já o custo de produção não apresentou significância estatística, mas teve o sinal esperado. A elasticidade-preço da oferta brasileira de celulose foi de 0,40, ou seja, trata-se de inelástica em relação ao seu preço. Em relação à estimativa da equação de demanda, o preço da celulose brasileira e a demanda internacional de celulose foram significativos a 1%. A elasticidade-preço da demanda de celulose encontrada foi -0,69 indicando que a demanda pela celulose brasileira é inelástica com relação ao seu preço. Por outro lado, a elasticidade da quantidade demandada de celulose brasileira em relação à demanda internacional desse produto foi 2,17, indicando que a quantidade demandada da celulose brasileira é elástica em relação à demanda internacional desse produto. / The present dissertation analyses the evolution of Brazilian pulp industry from 1980 to 2005, paying attention to three specific objectives: (1) analysis of the Brazilian pulp industry?s structure and performance, evaluating its production, exports and production costs. Besides that, the dissertation discusses the reorganization of this industry since the 1980\'s and highlights the changes that happened and their impacts on the sector\'s competitiveness; (2) Identify the researches and technological innovations that took place in forest and industrial areas, and emphasize their possible impacts on the competitiveness of Brazilian pulp industry; (3) analyze the evolution of the Brazilian pulp exports, elaborating an econometric model to evidence the main determinants of supply and demand for these exports. In relation to the first objective of this work, the structure and performance of the Brazilian pulp industry were analyzed through the following variables: production, export, production costs, number of enterprises, and also concentration indexes. It was evidenced that Brazil is increasing its market share in pulp exports. The increase of exports is mainly due to production cost advantages what associate to innovations in forest and industrial areas. To analyze the second objective of this dissertation, primary data, collected through questionnaires, and literature review were used to realize a survey of the main technological innovations that had occurred in silviculture and in Brazilian pulp production. Throughout the 1980\'s and 1990\'s and during the six first years of the 2000\'s, researches occurred in different intensities, in the distinct stages of industrial and forest production. The primary data organized in tables and graphs, as well as analyzed by Wilconox test, highlight the improves in the technological innovations in the stages of the production process what brought significant increases of productivity in silviculture and in the pulp industrial production, causing the reduction of pulp production cost. The latter enlarged sector\'s profitability, causing its expansion. In the third objective, supply and demand equations for pulp exports were run for data ranging from 1980 to 2005. Regarding to the pulp supply, Brazilian exported pulp price and lagged exports were statistically significant at 20% and 1% level, respectively. The production cost did not show statistically significant, but it had the expected signal. The price elasticity of Brazilian pulp supply was 0.4, so it is inelastic in relation to its price. The demand elasticity price founded was -0.69, indicating the quantity of Brazilian pulp demanded is inelastic in relation to its price. Meanwhile, the elasticity of Brazilian pulp demanded quantity in relation to international demand of this product was 2.17, indicating the demanded quantity of Brazilian pulp is elastic in relation to the international demand of the product.

This thesis is focused on analysis of the factors that influence the yields of the wheat. This thesis is divided into three parts. The first part opens the problem of wheat cultivation. The second one concerns the methodologies of creating the econometrics models and the third one solves the problem as a whole. Considering a large data file I have a need to reduce it by the factor analysis. I estimate relevant econometric model by application different econometrics methods. This model will show the influences of technological, soil and climatic factors on the yields of wheat. At the end I confront the observed variables with predicted ones by the graininess of soil, climate and the year of the crops.