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Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, Dept. of Applied Mathematics, 2002. / "July 2002." Bibliography: leaves 119-126.

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The European Union has long established itself as the world's most powerful regional supranational formation, which is achieved thanks to its economic results, geopolitical influence, and military might. European integration offers countries with an opportunity to boost their development and have greater impact in the international arena. However, the EU accession criteria are quite hard to meet, and many countries face significant difficulties in this respect, which is the case of Turkey. Since 1987, when Turkey officially applied for membership in the EU, the country hasn't completed its integration in the European community yet. This thesis investigates the main economic advantages and disadvantages in the context of Turkey's prospective accession to the European Union as a full-fledged member state.

Statement of Problem In the past few years, there has been increased interest in the intravenous administration of antibiotics in the home. The catalyst for this interest has been the need to contain costs and decrease surgical waiting lists in hospitals. However, the scientific evidence for cost containment for home parenteral programs is scant, conflicting and confusing. This study is the first to undertake an economic model based on a cost-benefit framework encompassing both direct and the often-ignored indirect costs. It also examines patient self-administered home parenteral antibiotic therapy (HPAT) within an economic, clinical and humanistic outcomes (ECHO) structure as a source of model inputs. The modelling approach overcomes the analytical and statistical difficulties associated with these early discharge programs due to the small and diverse nature of the populations. Methods and Procedures This study uses data from the Alternate Site Infusion Service (ASIS) at Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia to populate some fields in the economic model. This service is based on the patient self-administration model and provides early hospital discharge to medically stable patients who require medium to long-term intravenous antibiotics for the treatment of infectious disease. The economic model is described as a probabilistic, second-order, Monte Carlo simulation based on cost-benefit design and constructed from realistic incremental differences in costs and benefits. The multi-dimensional probabilistic sensitivity analysis is used to account for uncertainty present in some of the model inputs. Risk analysis software known as “@Risk” Version 4.5.5 Professional is used to construct the simulation model. The cost and benefit framework, and ultimately inputs, are constructed from primary data emanating from the databases of the ASIS unit, Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane for the period 2001 to 2002, secondary data based on literature reviews, and expert opinion. Societal perspective is chosen to encompass areas such as loss or gain of productivity and carer burden. Clinical outcome is investigated by examining the ASIS database regarding the treatment outcome of HPAT patients. The incidence and mortality rates of nosocomial intravascular bacteraemia (NIB) for hospital and HPAT patients are based on the literature review and included as inputs in the model. Carer burden is determined by the identified carers of ASIS patients with the completion of the mailed Caregiving Distress Scale (CDS) and the Impact of Caring Scale (ICS) instruments. A labour questionnaire was designed to collect data on paid employment, students returning to education and individuals returning to normal daily activities (including forgone leisure activities). The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Australian Standard Classification of Occupations (ASCO) and the ABS gender-specific average weekly wages for nine major work groups are used to estimate productivity of patients and their carers. The value of a hospital bed day was modelled to estimate the value of hospitalisation at the end of a hospital length of stay to avoid using an average bed day cost. The change in the utilisation of nursing, medical and pharmacy human resources due to HPAT is also modelled to avoid using average estimates. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the value of a hospital bed day to measure the impact on the net benefit. Results The @Risk economic model was undertaken with 10,000 iterations to capture the variability of the net benefit. The value of a hospital bed day appears to have the greatest impact on the net benefit of ASIS with the probability of NIB and incidence of death from NIB in hospital also contributing. The correlation of CDS and the ICS demonstrates a linear relationship, and a total of 93% of carers indicate that they would repeat their participation as a carer. However, most relationships between variables are not statistically significant, or clinically unimportant. Carer burden is suggested to be low in home parenteral antibiotic patients despite the ASIS unit adopting the patient self-administered form of service delivery. However, the number of patients identifying a carer is low and, therefore, there is difficulty in the collection of a suitable sized data set. HPAT failed in 10% of home patients and was fairly comparable with other studies based on the patient self-administered model of service delivery. A total of 58% of HPAT patients (total patients = 123 and 3,939 bed days) returned to work or normal activities with an estimated productivity gain of $190,045 for the economic model of 3,964 bed days. Lost productivity for carers emanating from the survey research was estimated to be $118,121 for the economic model of 3,964 bed days. A mean cost difference of $19,584 between the hospital and home NIB, based on literature probability rates, was estimated indicating a benefit to the HPAT with regard to NIB. Overall, the @Risk model for the ASIS patients representing 3,964 bed days calculated a mean net benefit of $2,450,163 for the HPAT program. A 50% reduction in a hospital bed day value to $253 still resulted in a mean net benefit of $1,447,273 – and a zero net benefit resulted when the value of a hospital bed day reached $112. This suggests that the HPAT program, based on a patient self-administered model of service delivery, represents a viable option for healthcare delivery.

Trade is largely considered a driving force of economic growth and development of nations. To this end, there is vast and far-reaching research on the subject, especially on matters international. However, research on intra-African trade is lacking in comparison to research on trade amongst the rest of the world, not just developed, but also developing countries alike. That aside there are numerous efforts put in place to enhance and encourage trade within and without the continent. The research presented in this thesis aims to investigate and address three key issues specific to intra-Africa trade. The questions asked are: are the measures currently in place successful in the promotion of intra-Africa trade; is the continent ready for measures about to be implemented and after all that, is trade really the key driving force for economic growth and development within Africa? To answer these questions, the research presented here in this thesis employs the gravity modelling approach, the G-PPP test and develops a macro-economic model which is applied to the Kenyan economy. The results indicate that; yes, trade is significant and important in determining economic growth, and while measures taken thus far such as the creation of Economic Integrations have not been as successful as was envisioned, trade openness continues to be among the most important ways in which trade is encouraged and enhanced, to this end, although the continent is yet to fulfil all the requirements for the formation of a full-blown Economic Union, it is ready for drastic measures such as the formation of a currency union. Literature reveals that this could form the basis of hastening complete integration and harmonization of all systems of the participating economies, thereby benefiting not just trade but also all other sectors of the economies.

Many bumblebee species have experienced severe population declines in response to the use of intensive land management practices throughout the UK and western Europe during the latter half of the twentieth century. The loss of wildflower-rich unimproved lowland grasslands has been particularly detrimental and, as a result, in the UK two bumblebee species are now extinct, seven are listed on the UK Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP), and only six extant species remain common and ubiquitous. Populations of the rarer species are often fragmented and restricted to isolated areas, such as the crofting regions of northwest Scotland, in which the use of intensive farming practices has remained relatively limited. Consequently, in this study I primarily focus on the conservation of B. distinguendus and B. muscorum, two of the UK’s rarest species which have strongholds in the Outer Hebrides. In this region crofting is the dominant form of agriculture, and is traditionally typified by small-scale mixed livestock production accompanied by rotational cropping activities. With the use of very few artificial inputs, traditional crofting activities are environmentally sensitive and promote the diverse wildflower assemblages characteristic of the machair which provide suitable forage for bumblebees. However, the changing demographic structure of the islands, in conjunction with a range of other socio-economic factors, is resulting in the adoption of more intensive land management practices by crofters and changing the nature of the crofted landscape. These changes are likely to have a detrimental impact on the rare bumblebee populations that rely on crofting to provide suitable foraging habitats. Neglecting to examine the socio-economic issues behind the decline in crofting activities, and failure to develop a means of making the system economically viable and sustainable, is likely to reduce the effectiveness of any bumblebee conservation measures introduced in the region. Through my research I address this socio-ecological problem by taking an interdisciplinary approach, and combine the two disciplines of ecology and economics to find a way to ensure crofting is sustainable whilst promoting sympathetic land management practices to aid bumblebee conservation. The results of my research demonstrate that current croft land management practices do not support high abundances of foraging bumblebees in the Outer Hebrides, and that sheep grazing during the summer has a particularly negative impact on bumblebee abundance on croft land. My research also highlights the importance of non-agricultural habitats for foraging long-tongued bumblebee species in agricultural landscapes. Grazing management can promote bumblebee abundance, with cattle grazing providing a valuable foraging habitat for short-tongued bumblebees in southwest England. Therefore, to conserve bumblebees in agricultural landscapes the type of farming system needs to be taken into account in developing grazing management regimes, whilst non-agricultural habitats need to be integrated into local land management plans to ensure the provision of forage for bumblebees throughout the flight period. The outputs of the ecological-economic models show that compensation payments are not always required to encourage beneficial land management practices to enhance bumblebee populations in crofted areas. However, crofting is a marginal farming system that is heavily influenced by socio-economic factors, and this should be taken into consideration in the development of future agricultural policy for the region.

Cette thèse a pour objet le développement d’un module d’utilisation des sols compatible avec le modèle NEMESIS, qui est un modèle économique détaillé de l’Union Européenne. Cette thèse a également pour objectif d’utiliser conjointement le modèle NEMESIS et le module d’allocation des sols pour analyser les effets de plusieurs politiques européennes et notamment leurs impacts sur l’économie et l’utilisation des sols. Le premier chapitre décrit d’une part la construction de la base de données d’utilisation des sols et d’autre part, explique le développement du module d’allocation des sols au niveau des États de l’Union Européenne, en utilisant des fonctions d’offre et de demande de terre agricole et un modèle d’expansion des terres urbaines. Le second chapitre traite, au travers de deux applications, du problème de la construction de scénarios en modélisation appliquée. Un premier scénario, construit suivant une approche dite tendancielle, est présenté de façon détaillée et analysé. Ce scénario sert également de référence pour les évaluations des politiques européennes. Une seconde application propose quatre scénarios élaborés suivant une approche dite « imaginative», c’est-à-dire en imaginant différentes possibilités d’évolution contrastée des principales variables motrices de la croissance économiques. Le troisième chapitre présente la construction et le fonctionnement d’une combinaison de différents modèles ou « chaîne de modèles ». Celle-ci sera utilisée pour l’évaluation économique et environnementale d’une politique de libéralisation de l’agriculture européenne avec ré-allocation des fonds aux contribuables ou à l’aide à la recherche et développement. Cette « chaîne de modèles » combinele modèle NEMESIS avec un modèle agricole détaillé (CAPRI), un modèle de gestion des forêts (EFISCEN )et un modèle détaillé d’allocation des sols (Dyna-CLUE). Enfin le dernier, et quatrième chapitre, présente, après la construction d’indicateurs sur l’utilisation des nutriments dans l’agriculture, l’évaluation des conséquences économiques de deux politiques européennes : d’une part, une politique de biodiversité caractérisée par l’augmentation des forêts protégées ou par une production agricole extensive et d’autre part une politique de soutien au développement des biocarburants au niveau européen. / This thesis aims to develop a land use module for the applied economic model NEMESIS which is a detailed model for European Union. This dissertation also proposes the use of the land use module with the NEMESIS model in order to analyse the effects of European policies especially their economic and land use impact. The first chapter describes, on one hand, the construction of a database on land use and, on another hand, explain the development of a land use module for the EU countries by using agricultural land supply and demand but also an modelling of urban land use. The second chapter regards, using two applications, the problem of scenario construction in applied modelling. A first scenario, constructed with an extrapolating approach, is presented and analysed. This scenario is also used as reference scenario for the assessment of European policies. A second application shows four scenario developed using an imaginative approach i.e. assuming different possibilities for the future change in main drivers. The third chapter presents and describes the functioning of four linked models which is used for the economic and environmental assessment of a European agriculture liberalisation with re-allocation of released funds either by consumer tax rebate or a subsidy to R&D investments. The linked models included (i) the NEMESIS model, (ii) the CAPRI model a detailed agricultural model, (iii) the EFISCEN model, a forest resource management model and(iv) the Dyna-CLUE model, a detailed model for land use allocation. Finally, the last chapter presents, after the construction of indicators about nutrient use in agriculture, the economic assessment of two European policies: firstly, a biodiversity conservation policy in forest area or in agricultural land and secondly a biofuel development policy at European level.

This PhD dissertation studies how market structures and economic incentives transform heterogeneity at agent levels into unequal economic outcomes. The first chapter studies the economic incentives that lead a country to specialise its production in specific segments of a supply chain, and how these incentives transform heterogeneity at the productivity level into wage differences between countries. This chapter presents an innovative framework that incorporates production networks to the Ricardian trade model. It describes the price formation mechanism that occurs along supply chains and how it induces countries to focus on the production of specific goods. Moreover, the model highlights the role of the network structure in the determination of prices, and uses it to explain how changes in the productivity of a country have consequences in the production decisions and wages of the other countries that produce goods in the supply chain. The second chapter studies the effects that the heterogeneity of income flows has over the implementation of collective agreements. Collective agreements are the primary mechanism by which communities cope with market failures. However, the lack of enforcement mechanisms generates coordination challenges. This chapter presents a theoretical framework that studies how inequality among individuals affects the participation incentives of the individuals and explains why agreements that balance the rent-seeking behaviour of wealthy individuals with the redistribution interests of the poor reduce the adverse effects of heterogeneity, and can even use it to create more robust agreements. The third chapter studies heterogeneity at the level of academic journals. This chapter models the interaction between authors and journals as a platform market and uses this model to explain how general interest journals compete against field-specific journals. The model provides new insights into the way in which general interest journals link the different publication incentives of journals across fields. The theoretical results explain why general interest journals tend to attract higher quality publications and how changes in the publication capacity of a journal, or the volume of research in a field, can affect the quality of ideas published in both field-specific and general interest journals. Finally, this chapter applies the previous theoretical results to understand how the Top 5 journals in economics obtained their central role, and how their influence has changed between 1980 and the present.

The aim of thesis is to analyse the economic model of urban residential location through the application of duality methods. Whilst some dual methods have been used in urban economic modelling in the past this paper proposes alternative dual approaches which appear to be novel, but are complimentary to existing approaches to the urban model. As part of the application of dual techniques the paper proposes a method of application which is general enough to be applied to all Von Thunen type models and tests this proposition on the fundamental agrarian model of Von Thunen. As part of the dual analysis of the urban residential model the conditions for the traditional lot size hypothesis are examined in the light of conditional demand functions stemming from the dual analysis. The work also empirically tests the traditional residential lot size hypothesis for various Australian cities. The empirical method adopted involves estimation of density gradients utilising competing non-nested flexible form models and discrimination between these alternative models utilising semi-parametric non-nested tests based on an artificial regression model. Two of the three competing models have not been used in this context before, one of them being completely novel. Moreover, the artificial regression model has not been previously used in this context, requiring some modification to deal with the problem of competing models with dependent variable transformation. / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)