Este trabalho procurou analisar o sistema produtivo da atividade leiteira em Minas Gerais, identificando a capacidade dos produtores em permanecer no negócio, a longo prazo, através da estimação da função custo translogarítmica. O estudo demonstrou que os produtores analisados ainda praticam altos custos por unidade produzida, sugerindo baixa eficiência dos estabelecimentos e falhas na administração do empreendimento. Os resultados econométricos revelam a possibilidade de ganhos de escala, no que se refere à alocação e melhor aproveitamento dos recursos, ou seja, as propriedades apresentam economias de escala. No entanto, retornos crescentes de escala não são compatíveis com a existência de mercados competitivos, sinalizando que os produtores enfrentam restrições geradas pelas imperfeições de mercado. O conhecimento dessas imperfeições é essencial à formulação de políticas econômicas e de organizações privadas que visem ao desenvolvimento econômico deste mercado, que atualmente é o sexto maior do mundo. Além disso, os resultados das elasticidades mostram que o produtor é mais sensível às variações de preços na mão-de-obra do que às variações nos demais fatores, reduzindo em maior proporção o uso do trabalho na produção, à medida que seu preço aumenta. Isto evidencia a principal característica regional da produção leiteira no país, que é o uso intensivo do fator trabalho. Também foi identificado que o os medicamentos, alimentos e energia, denominados no estudo de fator dispêndio, são os mais difíceis é o mais difícil de serem substituídos na produção, devido às particularidades no uso dos componentes deste insumo. Por fim, os valores positivos encontrados para as elasticidades parciais de substituição de Allen confirmam a substitutibilidade entre os fatores. / This study analyzes the production system of dairy farming in Minas Gerais, identifying the ability of producers to stay in business in the long run, by estimating the translog cost function. The study showed that the producers still have high costs per unit, suggesting low efficiency of facilities and mismanagement of the enterprise. The econometric results show the existence of economies of scale in relation to allocation and better utilization of resources. However, increasing returns to scale are not compatible with the existence of competitive markets, indicating that producers face constraints generated by market imperfections. Knowledge of these shortcomings is essential to the formulation of economic policies and private organizations that address the economic development of this market, which is currently the sixth largest in the world. In addition, the results show that elasticities of the producer is more sensitive to price changes in labor than to changes in other factors, reducing the use of a higher proportion of labor in production, as its price increases. This highlights the main feature of the regional dairy production in the country, which is the intensive use of labor. The study has also identified that the use of selected inputs, such as medication, food and energy, identified in the study as expense factor, are the most difficult to replace due to peculiarities in the use of components of this material. Finally, the positive values founds for the partial Allen elasticities of substitution confirm the substitutability between factors.

O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar as elasticidades-preço e renda da demanda residencial por energia elétrica no Brasil utilizando dados em painel. A heterogeneidade da economia brasileira faz com que existam diversos padrões de consumo residencial de energia elétrica e diferentes estruturas tarifárias entre as distribuidoras. Nesse sentido, este trabalho utiliza um banco de dados em painel formado por 63 distribuidoras de energia elétrica no Brasil, para o período 1999-2006. Isso permite controlar possíveis efeitos individuais não observáveis existentes entre as distribuidoras. Três métodos de estimação em painel foram aplicados: o Pooled OLS, o de Efeitos Fixos e o de Efeitos Aleatórios. Além disso, também foi testado se no período de racionamento de energia elétrica ocorrido no Brasil em 2001/2002, ocorreu alguma alteração na sensibilidade dos consumidores com relação a variações nas tarifas de energia elétrica e na renda dos consumidores no período. Os resultados mostraram que a utilização de dados em painel produz estimativas de elasticidades preço e renda de acordo com a teoria econômica. Além disso, os resultados ficaram próximos aos da literatura nacional. Os resultados também mostraram que no período do racionamento aumentou a sensibilidade dos consumidores com relação a alterações nas tarifas de energia elétrica. / The objective of this thesis is to estimate the price and income elasticities of residential electric power demand in Brazil using panel data. The heterogeneity of the Brazilian economy leads to the existence of different patterns of residential electric power consumption and different tariffs structures among the electric power utilities companies. In this regard, this work uses a panel database composed by information about 63 electric power companies in Brazil, in the period 1996-2006. Three panel data methods were applied: Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects and Random Effects. Furthermore, it also was tested if there were some changes in the sensitivity of the consumers regarding the variations in the price and income variables during the electric power rationing in Brazil, in 2001/2002. The results showed that the panel data provides estimations of price and income elasticities in accordance with the economic theory. In addition, the results were close to those in the national literature. The estimations also showed the sensitivity of consumers increased in the period of electric power rationing.

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the world market price of crude oil, coal and natural gas affects the demand of and dependency on energy imports from the Russian Federation of key European countries[1]. We achieve our objective through econometric estimations of import demand equations concerning imports from the Russian Federation of crude oil, coal and natural gas for seven EU key countries during 1990-2014.Three out of twenty-one models were found to be statistically significant for both the spot price- and income elasticity. The spot price elasticities for the models where: coal import demand for Finland (-0.49), crude oil import demand for Italy (-0.44) and the Netherlands (-0.42). The income elasticities for the aforementioned models were found to be: Finland (2.58), Italy (5.85) and the Netherlands (7.62). The remaining models were statistically insignificant presumably due to different internal structures in the data or due to the assumption of perfect substitute model. [1] EU key countries include: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. / Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera hur världsmarknadspriset på råolja, kol och naturgas påverkar den europeiska efterfrågan på och beroendet av energiimport från Ryssland. Ekonometriska uppskattningar av importefterfrågan för råolja, kol och naturgas som produceras av Ryska Federationen för sju EU nyckelländer kommer att produceras. Huvudsyftet är att uppskatta elasticiteter hos importefterfrågan som kännetecknar de handelsförbindelserna mellan Ryssland och sju EU nyckelländerna med avseende på de tre energiresurser.  Tre av tjugoen modeller visade sig vara signifikanta för både världsmarknadspriset och inkomstelasticiteten. Följande variabler och elasticiteter för priset var signifikant; Kol Importefterfrågan för Finland (-0,49), Olje Importefterfrågan för Italien (-0,44) och Nederländerna (-0,42). Inkomstelasticitet för de nämnda modellerna estimeras vara; Finland (2,58), Italien (5,85) och Nederländerna (7,62). Den statistiska insignifikansen hos de övriga modellerna härstamma troligtvis från den interna strukturen på datat eller antagandet om den perfekta substitut modellen

An evidence-based policy debate about future fuel demand requires reliable estimates for fuel price elasticities. Such predictions are often based on revealed preference (RP) data. However, this procedure will only yield reliable results in the absence of severe structural discontinuities. In order to overcome this potential limitation we used a situational stated preference (SP) survey to estimate the response to hypothetical fuel price changes beyond the scope of previous observations. We elicit fuel price elasticities for price increases up to four Euros per liter and find that the situational approach predicts the actual responses to previously observed fuel price changes very well. We conclude that applying a situational approach is particularly useful, if behavioral predictions for unprecedented (non-monetary) policy interventions or supply side shocks are of interest that go beyond the reach of standard RP approaches.

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter titled ``U.S. Grass-fed Beef Price Premiums" examined monthly retail-level price premiums for grass-fed beef (relative to conventional grain-fed beef) in the U.S. from 2014 through 2021. We found that premiums were heterogeneous, with premium cuts (such as sirloin steak, tenderloin, ribeye, and filet mignon) enjoying the highest premiums. Premiums were not consistent with price levels, as the lowest premiums were observed for short ribs, skirt steak, and flank steak. Our findings suggest that grass-fed beef price premiums were negatively affected by the consumption of food away from home. Changes in income, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, revocation of the USDA grass-fed certification program in 2016 and COVID-19 pandemic, also affected premiums for several individual cuts. Premiums were not sensitive to changes in information about climate change. The second chapter, ``Impact of Animal Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Meat Demand'', examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (AI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broilers in the U.S from 1997 to 2019. Using time-varying elasticities obtained from a Rotterdam model with animal disease cases, we found that BSE outbreaks reduced beef consumption by 0.64 percent and increased pork consumption by 2.34 percent, on average. While BSE outbreaks reduced beef demand, these effects were short lived and did not extend beyond one quarter. On the other hand, broiler consumption decreased during the HPAI outbreaks while beef and broiler consumption increased after such outbreaks. Our time-varying cross-price elasticities indicated that substitution between beef and broilers and beef and pork strengthened after Quarter 4 of 2003. The third chapter is titled ``Impact of North American Mad Cow Disease Outbreaks on The U.S. Cattle Futures". Our study developed a distributional event response model (DERM) framework to show the duration and magnitude of market responses of the U.S. cattle futures market during episodes of mad cow disease (BSE) in North America between 2010 and 2019. Our results indicated that the 2017 U.S. BSE outbreak reduced the returns of live cattle futures. Additionally, the average duration of the BSE event response was about 8.5 days. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation focused on the price analysis of the U.S. livestock market. The first chapter analysed the pattern of grass-fed beef price premiums measured as the difference between grass-fed beef price and conventional beef price. We mainly explored how the premiums were affected by consumers' income, food consumption away from home, and information on climate change, beef taste, and nutrition. We found that consumption of food away from home reduced the grass-fed beef price premiums. In addition, increased information about taste, protein and minerals, fat, and COVID-19 pandemic, could also affected the grass-fed premiums for several individual cuts. The second chapter explored how mad cow diseases and bird flu diseases affected the demand for beef, pork, and chicken. We particularly investigated how each disease outbreak affected the meat demand. My result showed that in the presence of mad cow diseases in the U.S., people bought more pork. This result that retailers should have higher pork demand when mad cow diseases are detected. The third chapter explored how mad cow diseases in North America affected the U.S. live cattle futures. We showed that the U.S. mad cow disease in 2017 reduced the returns of U.S. cattle futures and this impact lasted about 8.5 days. Simultaneously, we found that mad cow disease outbreaks in Canada did not significantly affect the U.S. cattle futures.

A análise de regressão kernel não paramétrica desconsidera qualquer influência das formas funcionais geralmente empregadas em análises de regressões paramétricas, permitindo os dados \"falarem por si mesmos\". Enquanto os estimadores paramétricos são considerados globais, os kernels não paramétricos usam uma amostra de dados próximas (definida pela largura da janela) a um ponto para ajustar a estimação, o que permite focar em peculiaridades locais dos dados. Ambas as análises foram aplicadas aos dados do Censo Agropecuário de 2006 realizado pelo IBGE, agregados municipalmente e em dezessete faixas de áreas, para estimar uma função de produção com o objetivo de estabelecer a relação entre o tamanho das propriedades agrícolas e o valor da produção por hectare (produtividade). A relação constatada foi inversa, porém a análise local feita pelos estimadores kernels explicitou uma relação direta entre as elasticidades de produção dos insumos e o tamanho das propriedades agrícolas, o que não justifica uma política de redistribuição de terras no sentido do aumento da produtividade. Além disto, análises gráficas contra fatuais (que manteve os insumos, exceto a área, constantes em seus valores médios) mostraram que a relação não é linear, não é monotônica, e difere dentre as regiões, o que é um desafio para a elaboração de políticas de redistribuição de terras. / Nonparametric kernel regression analysis disregards any influence of the functional forms commonly employed in parametric regression analyzes, allowing the data to \"speak for itself.\" While parametric estimators are considered global, nonparametric kernels use a sample of nearby data (defined by the bandwidth) at a point to adjust the estimation, which allows focusing on local peculiarities of the data. Both analyzes were applied to data from the 2006 IBGE Census of Agriculture, aggregated in municipalities and in seventeen areas, to estimate a production function with the objective of establishing the relationship between the size of agricultural properties and the value of production by hectare (productivity). The observed relationship was reversed, but the local analysis made by the kernels estimators explained a direct relationship between the elasticities of production of the inputs and the size of the agricultural properties, which does not justify a policy of redistribution of land in order to increase productivity. In addition, graphical analyzes against factors (which kept the inputs, except the area, constant in their mean values) showed that the relationship is not linear, is not monotonic, and differs among regions, which is a challenge for the elaboration of land redistribution policies.

My research seeks to understand the behaviour of workers and firms and how their decisions affect labour market outcomes. My PhD dissertation consists of three separate Chapters that use detailed historical, census and administrative data to gain insights into the mechanisms at play when incentives for production and location decisions change. Chapter 1 asks whether financial incentives can induce inventors to innovate more. I exploit a large reduction in the patent fee in the United Kingdom in 1884 to distinguish between its effect on increased efforts to invent, and a decrease in patent quality due to a lower quality threshold. For this analysis I create a detailed new dataset of 54,000 British inventors with renewal information for each patent. In the longer run high-quality patenting increases by over 100 percent, and the share of new patents due to greater effort accounts for three quarters of the pre-reform share of high-quality patents. To test for the presence of credit constraints I generate two wealth proxies from inventor names and addresses, and find a larger innovation response for inventors with lower wealth. These results indicate efficiency gains from decreasing the cost of inventing and in addition, from relaxing credit constraints. In Chapter 2 we assess the effects of changes in ethnic neighbourhood composition in England and Wales. A change in social housing allocations in the 1990s serves as instrument for changes in the local ethnic composition. For the analysis we create a dataset of highly disaggregated census geographies for 1991-2011. The results imply that an exogenous increase in social housing minority share by 10 percentage points raises the minority share in private housing by 1.2 percentage points initially. This sorting effect is larger for privately rented than for privately owned housing. We further show that an increase in the minority share leads to higher local population growth and a small decrease in house prices in the longer run. Chapter 3 proposes a new approach for analysing responses to comprehensive labour market reforms. Using detailed micro data we evaluate the German Hartz reforms that aimed at reducing unemployment. The timing of the reforms affects the model parameters, which are estimated using matched data on 430,000 workers in 340,000 firms. Contrary to previous findings, our analysis shows that the reforms marginally reduced unemployment at the cost of a pronounced decline in wages. Low-skilled workers suffered the largest wage losses. Furthermore, we decompose the contribution of each reform wave on employment and wages, and document a structural shift in the factors that govern overall wage dispersion.

Submitted by Cristiane Oliveira (cristiane.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T16:56:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100274.pdf: 1517139 bytes, checksum: 14aa5d4963f1c54e4540e594fbf636af (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia(suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T17:03:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100274.pdf: 1517139 bytes, checksum: 14aa5d4963f1c54e4540e594fbf636af (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão(vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2011-06-03T17:07:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100274.pdf: 1517139 bytes, checksum: 14aa5d4963f1c54e4540e594fbf636af (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-06-03T17:09:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 66080100274.pdf: 1517139 bytes, checksum: 14aa5d4963f1c54e4540e594fbf636af (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-07 / Gasoline and ethanol are the main fuels for cars and light commercials in Brazil and the study of demand for these products provides important indicators about consumer behavior. There are many researches estimating the price and income elasticities of gasoline and few studies trying the same for ethanol. This dissertation makes such a study, taking into account the specific characteristics of the fuel market in Brazil and, in some extent, contributing to past research. An econometric analysis was conducted in two stages with monthly data from the ANP to the units of Brazil, using the tools to control for the endogeneity in demand analysis. In addition, we took into consideration the fact that not all states have on ethanol-gasoline price in the range near the critical value of 70%, which may complicate the measurement of price elasticities in these regions. Thus, the states whose relative price of ethanol-gasoline is usually in the range far from the critical value of 70% were analyzed separately. Finally, as the analysis was done separately for two different periods, it is expected that the growing fleet of vehicles with flex-fuel engines change consumer behavior. The regression results confirm an increase in price elasticities (own and cross) of gasoline and ethanol in Brazil. However, it was not confirmed the hypothesis that the estimated elasticities would be larger in states close to parity. Additionally, the estimates suggest that in the most recent period ethanol presented in module price elasticity significantly greater than gasoline. / A gasolina e o etanol são os principais combustíveis para veículos leves no Brasil e o estudo da sua demanda fornece importantes indicadores a respeito do comportamento dos consumidores. Vários pesquisadores no mundo tentaram estimar as elasticidades de preço e renda da gasolina e em menor número do etanol. Esta dissertação faz um estudo desse tipo, levando em consideração as características específicas do mercado de combustíveis no Brasil e contribuindo em alguns pontos em relação às pesquisas realizadas anteriormente. Um estudo econométrico em dois estágios foi realizado com dados mensais da ANP para as unidades federativas do Brasil, utilizando variáveis instrumentais para controlar a endogeneidade na análise da demanda. Além disso, levou-se em consideração o fato de que nem todos os estados brasileiros têm preço relativo etanol-gasolina numa faixa próxima ao valor crítico de 70%, o que pode dificultar a mensuração das elasticidades-preço nessas regiões. Assim sendo, os estados cujo preço relativo álcool-gasolina costuma estar numa faixa distante do valor crítico de 70% foram analisados separadamente. Por fim, a análise foi feita separadamente para dois períodos distintos, pois é esperado que o crescimento da frota de veículos com motores flex-fuel altere o comportamento dos consumidores. Os resultados das regressões confirmam um aumento das elasticidades-preço própria e cruzada do consumo de gasolina e etanol no Brasil. Contudo, não foi confirmada a hipótese de que as elasticidades estimadas seriam maiores nos estados próximos a paridade. Adicionalmente, as estimações sugerem que no período mais recente o etanol apresenta em módulo uma elasticidade-preço significativamente maior que a gasolina.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study aims to analyze the performance of Brazilian exports, disaggregated by aggregate factor (Basic, Semi-manufactured and Manufactured), to Asia and Trade Partners NAFTA and the European Union, based on monthly data for the period January 1999 to June 2013. For this, were identified based on theoretical grounds, the main determinants and, through statistical tools, equations of short and long run for Brazilian sector exports were estimated, so that they could evaluate the elasticities quantum exported from the country. Still, were analyzed the performance and structure of Brazilian exports sector, their relationships with selected trade partners as well as their participation in world trade. For this, from an extension of the traditional theoretical model of imperfect substitutes, elaborated by Goldstein and Khan (1978), we use the method of Johansen cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) for determining the elasticities. Through the traditional literature of foreign trade, it was inferred that the determinants of exports are pegged to an index of income from trading partners, to index relative price of exports and the exchange rate. The results showed that the elasticities are greater than the long term to short term. Facing the sectorial impacts, the elasticities of trade with Asia and NAFTA show that the class of basic goods is more sensitive to income, while the other classes are more sensitive to exchange rate variations. On the other hand, exports to the European Union, income is the main determinant of the classes of manufactured and semimanufactured goods, while basics goods are more sensitive to exchange rates. In reference to average sectorial elasticities, one can say that income is the main determinant of basic products exports, while the classes of semi-manufactured and manufactured goods are more sensitive to changes in price levels. Finally, the negative effect of exchange rate volatility, verified is be a dynamic mainly short run. / O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar o desempenho das exportações brasileiras, desagregadas por fator agregado (Básicos, Semimanufaturados e Manufaturados), para a Ásia e os Blocos Econômicos Nafta e União Europeia, a partir de dados mensais para o período de janeiro de 1999 a junho de 2013. Para isso, foram identificados, com base nos fundamentos teóricos, os principais determinantes e, através do ferramental estatístico, foram estimadas equações de curto e longo prazo para as exportações setoriais brasileiras, para que se pudesse avaliar as elasticidades do quantum exportado do país. Ainda, foram analisados o desempenho e a estrutura das exportações setoriais brasileiras, suas relações com os parceiros comerciais selecionados, bem como sua participação no comércio mundial. Para tanto, a partir de uma extensão do tradicional modelo teórico de substitutos imperfeitos, elaborado por Goldstein e Khan (1978), utiliza-se o método de cointegração de Johansen e o Modelo de Correção de Erros (ECM) para a determinação das elasticidades. Através da literatura tradicional de comércio exterior, inferiu-se que os determinantes das exportações estão atrelados a um índice de renda dos parceiros comerciais, ao índice de preço relativo das exportações e a taxa de câmbio. Os resultados mostraram que as elasticidades de longo prazo são superiores às de curto prazo. Frente aos impactos setoriais, as elasticidades do comércio com a Ásia e o Nafta mostram que a classe de produtos básicos é mais sensível à renda, enquanto que as demais classes são mais sensíveis às variações cambiais. Por outro lado, nas exportações para a União Europeia, a renda é o principal determinante das classes de manufaturados e semimanufaturados, enquanto que os produtos básicos são mais sensíveis ao câmbio. Em referência às elasticidades setoriais médias, pode-se dizer que a renda é o principal determinante das exportações de produtos básicos, enquanto que as classes de semimanufaturados e manufaturados são mais sensíveis às variações dos níveis de preços. Por fim, quanto ao impacto negativo da volatilidade cambial, verificou-se ser uma dinâmica, principalmente, de curto prazo.

A análise de regressão kernel não paramétrica desconsidera qualquer influência das formas funcionais geralmente empregadas em análises de regressões paramétricas, permitindo os dados \"falarem por si mesmos\". Enquanto os estimadores paramétricos são considerados globais, os kernels não paramétricos usam uma amostra de dados próximas (definida pela largura da janela) a um ponto para ajustar a estimação, o que permite focar em peculiaridades locais dos dados. Ambas as análises foram aplicadas aos dados do Censo Agropecuário de 2006 realizado pelo IBGE, agregados municipalmente e em dezessete faixas de áreas, para estimar uma função de produção com o objetivo de estabelecer a relação entre o tamanho das propriedades agrícolas e o valor da produção por hectare (produtividade). A relação constatada foi inversa, porém a análise local feita pelos estimadores kernels explicitou uma relação direta entre as elasticidades de produção dos insumos e o tamanho das propriedades agrícolas, o que não justifica uma política de redistribuição de terras no sentido do aumento da produtividade. Além disto, análises gráficas contra fatuais (que manteve os insumos, exceto a área, constantes em seus valores médios) mostraram que a relação não é linear, não é monotônica, e difere dentre as regiões, o que é um desafio para a elaboração de políticas de redistribuição de terras. / Nonparametric kernel regression analysis disregards any influence of the functional forms commonly employed in parametric regression analyzes, allowing the data to \"speak for itself.\" While parametric estimators are considered global, nonparametric kernels use a sample of nearby data (defined by the bandwidth) at a point to adjust the estimation, which allows focusing on local peculiarities of the data. Both analyzes were applied to data from the 2006 IBGE Census of Agriculture, aggregated in municipalities and in seventeen areas, to estimate a production function with the objective of establishing the relationship between the size of agricultural properties and the value of production by hectare (productivity). The observed relationship was reversed, but the local analysis made by the kernels estimators explained a direct relationship between the elasticities of production of the inputs and the size of the agricultural properties, which does not justify a policy of redistribution of land in order to increase productivity. In addition, graphical analyzes against factors (which kept the inputs, except the area, constant in their mean values) showed that the relationship is not linear, is not monotonic, and differs among regions, which is a challenge for the elaboration of land redistribution policies.