nÃo hà / O objeto dessa dissertaÃÃo à analisar a influÃncia da receita lÃquida, patrimÃnio lÃquido total e dÃvidas de longo prazo sobre a rentabilidade do valor das aÃÃes da ARCADIS, atravÃs da aplicaÃÃo de mÃtodos de sÃries de tempo, tais como, teste de raiz unitÃria, teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen, o modelo autorregressivo vetorial (VAR), vetor de correÃÃo de erros (VEC), funÃÃo impulso-resposta e decomposiÃÃo da variÃncia dos erros de previsÃo. A base de dados à quadrimestral no perÃodo de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2012. De acordo com o teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen, os resultados indicam que as sÃries que apresentam raiz unitÃria sÃo todas integradas de ordem um em nÃvel e mostram uma relaÃÃo de longo prazo entre elas. Os coeficientes obtidos no modelo estimado se apresentaram de acordo com a literatura. Pode-se observar tambÃm que os testes demonstraram uma forte influÃncia da receita lÃquida sobre o valor da aÃÃo quando comparados com as outras variÃveis. A partir das avaliaÃÃes realizadas neste estudo, pode-se afirmar que as variÃveis sÃo relevantes para explicar as variaÃÃes ocorridas no decorrer do tempo, na variÃvel dependente valor da aÃÃo na bolsa de valores. O referido trabalho apresenta uma anÃlise da evoluÃÃo das empresas de engenharia consultiva e o crescente grau de internacionalizaÃÃo. Destaca-se a relevÃncia do estudo de comparaÃÃo com o propÃsito de entender o crescimento da empresa ARCADIS no segmento de engenharia consultiva e gerenciamento de projetos, alÃm de analisar como se ampliou sua competitividade no mercado. / The object of this dissertation is to analyze the influence of net revenue, total shareholders' equity and long-term debt on the profitability of the value of the shares of ARCADIS, by applying methods of time series, such as unit root test, test Johansen cointegration, the vector autoregression model (VAR), vector error correction (VEC), impulse response and variance decomposition of forecast errors function. The database is quarterly from January 2000 to December 2012 According to the Johansen cointegration test, the results indicate that the series that have unit roots are all integrated of order one in level and show a relationship term between them. The coefficients in the estimated model is presented according to the literature; can also observe that the tests demonstrated a strong influence of net revenue on the share value when compared with the other variables. From the evaluations performed in this study, it can be stated that the variables are relevant to explain the variations over time in the dependent variable value of the share on the stock exchange. That paper presents an analysis of the evolution of consulting engineering companies and the increasing degree of internationalization. Highlights the relevance of the study compared with the purpose of understanding the growth of the company ARCADIS in consulting engineering and project management segment. And since expanded its market competitiveness.

O objeto dessa dissertaÃÃo à conhecer a influÃncia do cÃmbio sobre as exportaÃÃes brasileiras de carnes bovina, suÃna e de frango e, posteriormente, comparar os resultados encontrados, decorrentes da obtenÃÃo das elasticidades-cÃmbio e elasticidades-renda mundial de curto e longo prazo. Verificar se houve quebra estrutural no perÃodo referente à anÃlise, jà que, neste mesmo perÃodo, a economia brasileira sofreu diversas turbulÃncias e mudanÃas de regimes cambiais. Para obter os resultados esperados, foram empregados mÃtodos de sÃries de tempo, teste de raiz unitÃria, teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen, o modelo autorregressivo vetorial (VAR), vetor de correÃÃo de erros (VEC), funÃÃo impulso-resposta, decomposiÃÃo da variÃncia dos erros de previsÃo e teste de causalidade de Granger. O perÃodo escolhido abrange abril de 1989 a marÃo de 2009 distribuÃdo em 80 observaÃÃes trimestrais. Os resultados indicam que as sÃries que apresentam raÃzes unitÃrias sÃo todas integradas de ordem um em nÃvel e mostram uma relaÃÃo de longo prazo entre elas, de acordo com o teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen. Os coeficientes dos modelos estimados apresentaram resultados compatÃveis com a teoria econÃmica quando tratados sob a forma de elasticidades; os resultados mostraram, tambÃm, a forte influÃncia da renda mundial sobre as exportaÃÃes de carnes quando comparados com a taxa de cÃmbio. A relaÃÃo entre as variÃveis indicou que o sentido da causalidade à unidirecional, ou seja, a taxa de cÃmbio real e a renda mundial afetam as exportaÃÃes de carnes (gado, frango e suÃna), mas a recÃproca nÃo à verdadeira. Por fim cabe salientar, que a importÃncia do estudo de comparaÃÃo visa entender a particularidade de cada tipo de carne estudado para efeito de planejamento e desenvolvimento de polÃticas econÃmicas adequadas. / The object of that dissertation is to know the influence of the exchange on the bovine Brazilian exports of meats, suÃna and of chicken and, later, to compare the found results, mainly the elasticity-exchange and world elasticity-income of short and soon period. Verify if there was structural break in the period regarding analysis, since, in this period, the Brazilian economy suffered several turbulences and changes of exchange regimes. To obtain the expected results, they were employees methods of series of time, test of unitary root, test of cointegraÃÃo of Johansen, the vectorial autoregressive model (VAR), error correction vector (VEC), function pulse-answer, decomposition of the variance of the forecast mistakes and test of causality of Granger. The chosen period includes April from 1989 to March of 2009 distributed in 80 observations quarterly. The results indicate that the series present unitary roots, they are integrated of order an and they present a relationship of soon period among them, in agreement with the test of cointegraÃÃo of Johansen. The coefficients of the dear models presented compatible results with the economical theory when treaties in the form of elasticities, the results also showed to strong influence of the world income on the exports of meats when compared with the exchange rate. The relationship among the variables indicated that the sense of the causality is unidirecional, in other words, the real exchange rate and the world income affect the exports of meats (cattle, chicken and suÃna), but the reverse is not true. Finally he/she fits to point out, that the importance of the comparison study seeks to understand the particularity of each one of the meats studied for planning effect and development of appropriate economic policies.

Sjöfartsverkets ställning liknande ett naturligt monopol och dagens politiska läge kräver en farledsavgift utformad på ett sätt som gör att Sjöfartsverket täcker sina kostnader samtidigt som de snedvrider beteendet av sjöfartens aktörer så lite som möjligt. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka elasticiteterna för olika fartygssegment och om Ramseyprissättning utifrån dessa kan användas för att utforma de svenska farledsavgifterna så att dessa krav uppfylls. Genom att kartlägga de avgiftsförändringar som skett mellan 2008–2020 och använda data från Sjöfartsverkets årliga farledsdeklarationer för samma period kan vi skatta elasticiteterna inom svensk sjöfart. Våra resultat indikerar att olika fartygssegment har olika elasticiteter vilket innebär att de har olika känslighet för avgiftsförändringar. Likt tidigare forskning är de elasticiteter vi får fram främst oelastiska och negativa. Vissa icke-signifikanta eller orimliga resultat innebär dock osäkerhet kring hur segmenten skiljer sig åt mellan varandra och över tid. Denna osäkerhet tillsammans med osäkerheten kring beräkningen av marginalkostnader och konkurrensen med andra transportslag gör att vi rekommenderar att Ramseyprissättning inte borde användas som grund för farledsavgifternas utformande i dagens läge. Vår kartläggning av avgiftsförändring kom fram till att endast två av dessa var lämpliga att utföra skattningar på. Detta tillsammans med det endogenitetsproblem som farledsavgifternas nuvarande struktur ger upphov till bidrog troligen till att vi inte kunde få fler signifikanta och rimliga elasticiteter. / The Swedish Maritime Administrations (SMA) position resembling that of a natural monopoly and the current political situation demands a fairway due designed in a way that allows the SMA to cover their costs while at the same time distorts the behaviour of the maritime agents as little as possible. The purpose of this essay is to examine the elasticities of different ship segments and whether Ramsey pricing based on these can be used to design the Swedish fairway dues in a way that meets these demands. By mapping the changes in dues between 2008-2020 and using data from the SMAs yearly fairway declarations during the same period, we can estimate the elasticities within Swedish shipping. Our results indicate that different ship segments have different elasticities which means that they have different sensitivity to changes in dues. Like previous research, the elasticities we find are mainly inelastic and negative. However, some insignificant or unreasonable results imply uncertainty around how the segments differ from each other and over time. This uncertainty together with the uncertainty around the calculations of marginal costs and competition with other modes of transportation makes us recommend not to use Ramsey pricing as a basis for designing the fairway dues in the current situation. Our mapping of changes in dues concluded that only two of these were suitable for making estimations. This, together with the endogeneity problem that the current structure of the fairway dues generates, probably contributed to our resulting elasticities not being more significant and reasonable.

The dissertation examines advancements in the methods and techniques used in the field of econometrics. These advancements include: (i) a re-examination of the underlying statistical foundations of statistical models with binary dependent variables. (ii) using feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural networks for modeling dichotomous choice processes, and (iii) the estimation of unconditional demand elasticities using the flexible multistage demand system with asymmetric partitions and fixed effects across time. The first paper re-examines the underlying statistical foundations of statistical models with binary dependent variables using the probabilistic reduction approach. This re-examination leads to the development of the Bernoulli Regression Model, a family of statistical models arising from conditional Bernoulli distributions. The paper provides guidelines for specifying and estimating a Bernoulli Regression Model, as well as, methods for generating and simulating conditional binary choice processes. Finally, the Multinomial Regression Model is presented as a direct extension. The second paper empirically compares the out-of-sample predictive capabilities of artificial neural networks to binary logit and probit models. To facilitate this comparison, the statistical foundations of dichotomous choice models and feed-forward backpropagation artificial neural networks (FFBANNs) are re-evaluated. Using contingent valuation survey data, the paper shows that FFBANNs provide an alternative to the binary logit and probit models with linear index functions. Direct comparisons between the models showed that the FFBANNs performed marginally better than the logit and probit models for a number of within-sample and out-of-sample performance measures, but in the majority of cases these differences were not statistically significant. In addition, guidelines for modeling contingent valuation survey data and techniques for estimating median WTP measures using FFBANNs are examined. The third paper estimates a set of unconditional price and expenditure elasticities for 49 different processed food categories using scanner data and the flexible and symmetric translog (FAST) multistage demand system. Due to the use of panel data and the presence of heterogeneity across time, temporal fixed effects were incorporated into the model. Overall, estimated price elasticities are larger, in absolute terms, than previous estimates. The use of disaggregated product groupings, scanner data, and the estimation of unconditional elasticities likely accounts for these differences. / Ph. D.

Using theoretical relations as a source of econometric specifications might lead a researcher to models that do not adequately capture the statistical regularities in the data and do not faithfully represent the phenomenon of interest. In addition, the researcher is unable to disentangle the statistical and substantive sources of error and thus incapable of using the statistical evidence to assess whether the theory, and not the statistical model, is wrong. The Probabilistic Reduction Approach puts forward a modeling strategy in which theory can confront data without compromising the credibility of either one of them. This approach explicitly derives testable assumptions that, along with the standardized residuals, help the researcher assess the precision and reliability of statistical models via misspecification testing. It is argued that only when the statistical source of error is ruled out can the researcher reconcile the theory and the data and establish the theoretical and/or external validity of econometric models. Through the approach, we are able to derive the properties of Beta regression-like models, appropriate when the researcher deals with rates and proportions or any other random variable with finite support; and of Lognormal models, appropriate when the researcher deals with nonnegative data, and specially important of the estimation of demand elasticities. / Ph. D.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lincoln Diogo Lima.pdf: 1438283 bytes, checksum: 2bfc9e1f29112f1bb26c5289a9dad140 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-22 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This dissertation aims at analyzing empirically, by means of estimates of price and income elasticities, the behavior of the trade balance between Brazil and the USA, between january 1990 and october 2011. The theoretical approaches of Elasticities and Absorption provide the theoretical relations for determinants of trade balance, allowing the construction of a workable structure for empirical research. Empirical studies on the subject shows that, recently, the form of data aggregation and development of new econometric methods, considered by many researchers more appropriate for variables that are not sure about its exogeneity, drove the emergence of new work on the trade balance. The methodology used is the technique of Johansen s multivariate cointegration and vector autoregressive models (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC). It was concluded that the real exchange variables, brazilian income, income U.S., trade balance bilateral Brazil-United States has a long term relationship and expected signs, as economic theory postules, and income elasticities, especially in the U.S, are elastic and more important than the elasticity of the real exchange (inelastic) to explain the trade balance in the long run between the two countries. This indicates that to occur a reversal in the pattern of deficit trade balances of the last three years, the slowdown in income growth in Brazil and / or the resumption of US income growth is more important than a devaluation. Nevertheless, the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied and the J curve phenomenon not / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal analisar empiricamente, por meio das estimativas das elasticidades preço e renda, o comportamento do saldo da balança comercial entre Brasil e EUA, entre janeiro de 1990 e de outubro 2011. As abordagens teóricas das Elasticidades e da Absorção fornecem as relações teóricas para os determinantes do saldo comercial, permitindo a construção de uma estrutura funcional para a investigação empírica. Os trabalhos empíricos sobre o assunto demonstram que, recentemente, a forma de agregação dos dados e o desenvolvimento de novos métodos econométricos, considerados por muitos pesquisadores mais apropriados para variáveis em que não se tem certeza sobre a sua exogeneidade, impulsionaram o surgimento de novos trabalhos sobre o saldo da balança comercial. A metodologia utilizada é a técnica de cointegração multivariada de Johansen e os modelos de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) e de vetores de correção de erros (VEC). Concluiu-se que as variáveis câmbio real, renda brasileira, renda americana e saldo comercial bilateral Brasil-EUA mantêm uma relação de longo prazo e sinais esperados, como postula a teoria econômica, e as elasticidades rendas, sobretudo a americana, são elásticas e mais importantes do que a elasticidade do câmbio real (inelástico) para explicar o saldo comercial no longo prazo entre esses dois países. Isso indica que, para que haja uma reversão do padrão de saldos deficitários dos últimos três anos, a redução do ritmo de crescimento da renda brasileira e/ou a retomada do crescimento da renda americana é mais importante do que uma desvalorização cambial. Não obstante, a condição Marshall-Lerner foi satisfeita e o fenômeno da Curva J não

In an open economy economic agents distribute their spending between domestic and various import goods and they may reconsider their choice whenever relative international prices change. Armington elasticities quantify these reallocations in demand for goods produced in different countries. Recent analytical frameworks allow to further differentiate between a macro elasticity of substitution between domestic and import goods and a micro elasticity between different import sources. Despite the relevance of Armington elasticities for evaluating trade policy there has been no systematic study on whether micro and macro elasticities significantly differ for highly integrated economies within a free trade area and whether there is a common pattern. Using highly disaggregated data, this paper estimates Armington elasticities for a panel of 15 EMU Member States. Empirical results indicate a significant difference between micro and macro elasticities for up to one half of the consistent product groups considered, implying preferences across EMU countries are not perfectly aligned with non-discriminatory tariffs. I conclude that both the absolute and relative macro elasticities are informative and that heterogeneous preference patterns link to current trade imbalances. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar as elasticidades-preço e renda da demanda residencial por energia elétrica no Brasil utilizando dados em painel. A heterogeneidade da economia brasileira faz com que existam diversos padrões de consumo residencial de energia elétrica e diferentes estruturas tarifárias entre as distribuidoras. Nesse sentido, este trabalho utiliza um banco de dados em painel formado por 63 distribuidoras de energia elétrica no Brasil, para o período 1999-2006. Isso permite controlar possíveis efeitos individuais não observáveis existentes entre as distribuidoras. Três métodos de estimação em painel foram aplicados: o Pooled OLS, o de Efeitos Fixos e o de Efeitos Aleatórios. Além disso, também foi testado se no período de racionamento de energia elétrica ocorrido no Brasil em 2001/2002, ocorreu alguma alteração na sensibilidade dos consumidores com relação a variações nas tarifas de energia elétrica e na renda dos consumidores no período. Os resultados mostraram que a utilização de dados em painel produz estimativas de elasticidades preço e renda de acordo com a teoria econômica. Além disso, os resultados ficaram próximos aos da literatura nacional. Os resultados também mostraram que no período do racionamento aumentou a sensibilidade dos consumidores com relação a alterações nas tarifas de energia elétrica. / The objective of this thesis is to estimate the price and income elasticities of residential electric power demand in Brazil using panel data. The heterogeneity of the Brazilian economy leads to the existence of different patterns of residential electric power consumption and different tariffs structures among the electric power utilities companies. In this regard, this work uses a panel database composed by information about 63 electric power companies in Brazil, in the period 1996-2006. Three panel data methods were applied: Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects and Random Effects. Furthermore, it also was tested if there were some changes in the sensitivity of the consumers regarding the variations in the price and income variables during the electric power rationing in Brazil, in 2001/2002. The results showed that the panel data provides estimations of price and income elasticities in accordance with the economic theory. In addition, the results were close to those in the national literature. The estimations also showed the sensitivity of consumers increased in the period of electric power rationing.

Este trabalho procurou analisar o sistema produtivo da atividade leiteira em Minas Gerais, identificando a capacidade dos produtores em permanecer no negócio, a longo prazo, através da estimação da função custo translogarítmica. O estudo demonstrou que os produtores analisados ainda praticam altos custos por unidade produzida, sugerindo baixa eficiência dos estabelecimentos e falhas na administração do empreendimento. Os resultados econométricos revelam a possibilidade de ganhos de escala, no que se refere à alocação e melhor aproveitamento dos recursos, ou seja, as propriedades apresentam economias de escala. No entanto, retornos crescentes de escala não são compatíveis com a existência de mercados competitivos, sinalizando que os produtores enfrentam restrições geradas pelas imperfeições de mercado. O conhecimento dessas imperfeições é essencial à formulação de políticas econômicas e de organizações privadas que visem ao desenvolvimento econômico deste mercado, que atualmente é o sexto maior do mundo. Além disso, os resultados das elasticidades mostram que o produtor é mais sensível às variações de preços na mão-de-obra do que às variações nos demais fatores, reduzindo em maior proporção o uso do trabalho na produção, à medida que seu preço aumenta. Isto evidencia a principal característica regional da produção leiteira no país, que é o uso intensivo do fator trabalho. Também foi identificado que o os medicamentos, alimentos e energia, denominados no estudo de fator dispêndio, são os mais difíceis é o mais difícil de serem substituídos na produção, devido às particularidades no uso dos componentes deste insumo. Por fim, os valores positivos encontrados para as elasticidades parciais de substituição de Allen confirmam a substitutibilidade entre os fatores. / This study analyzes the production system of dairy farming in Minas Gerais, identifying the ability of producers to stay in business in the long run, by estimating the translog cost function. The study showed that the producers still have high costs per unit, suggesting low efficiency of facilities and mismanagement of the enterprise. The econometric results show the existence of economies of scale in relation to allocation and better utilization of resources. However, increasing returns to scale are not compatible with the existence of competitive markets, indicating that producers face constraints generated by market imperfections. Knowledge of these shortcomings is essential to the formulation of economic policies and private organizations that address the economic development of this market, which is currently the sixth largest in the world. In addition, the results show that elasticities of the producer is more sensitive to price changes in labor than to changes in other factors, reducing the use of a higher proportion of labor in production, as its price increases. This highlights the main feature of the regional dairy production in the country, which is the intensive use of labor. The study has also identified that the use of selected inputs, such as medication, food and energy, identified in the study as expense factor, are the most difficult to replace due to peculiarities in the use of components of this material. Finally, the positive values founds for the partial Allen elasticities of substitution confirm the substitutability between factors.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the variation in empirical estimates of the income and price elasticities of energy demand. The evidence presented, through a meta-analysis, allows identification of the weighted average of the income and price elasticities, shows that the estimates are very heterogeneous, that there is publication bias, and that factors such as region, energy sector, among others, affect its volatility. The evidence also indicates that income elasticity in Latin America is greater than in the OECD countries, and that the price elasticity of energy demand is lower in Latin America than in the OECD countries. Therefore, continued economic growth in Latin America will be accompanied by a growth in energy demand. Moreover, the establishment of a tax in Latin America, under the current elasticities, is less effective and will be insufficient to control the increase in energy consumption. / El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la variación de las elasticidades ingreso y precio de la demanda de energía. La evidencia presentada, con un metaanálisis, permite identificar la media ponderada de estas elasticidades ingreso y precio, muestra que las estimaciones son muy heterogé- neas, que existe sesgo de publicación y que algunos factores como la región, el sector del consumo de energía, entre otros, inciden en su volatilidad. La evidencia también indica que la elasticidad ingreso en América Latina es mayor que aquella de los países de la OCDE y, simultáneamente, que la elasticidad precio de la demanda de energía es menor en América Latina que en los países de la OCDE. Así, un crecimiento económico continuo en América Latina vendrá acompañado de un crecimiento de la demanda de energía y que el establecimiento de un impuesto en América Latina, bajo las actuales elasticidades, es menos efectivo y en general sería insuficiente para controlar el aumento del consumo de energía.