Energy production in power plants comes with both high costs and turnover whereas variations in the production strategy—that is, which boilers, coolers, or generators that should be running—have big impact on the economic result. This is especially true for a combined heat and power (CHP) plant where the production of district heating and electricity is linked, thus allowing for a higher flexibility in the production strategy and potential of increasing the revenue. Previous research states that thermo-economic optimization can have a great impact on economic result of power plants, but every power plant is operating under a unique set of conditions depending on its location, operating market, load demand, construction, surrounding, and the like, and comparable studies on CHP plants in Sweden are very few. This study aims to fill this research gap by evaluating savings potential of a CHP plant in Lidköping, Sweden by utilizing thermo-economic optimization with the approach of combining actual historical data from the power plant with mass-flow equations and constraints to construct a mathematical MODEST model that is optimized by linear programming. The result demonstrates a clear theoretical potential to improve earnings and the conclusion that the studied CHP would benefit by implementing optimization procedures or software to schedule production. The result was also comparable to previous research but varied over time, which highlights how unique conditions may impact the result.

Orientadores: Secundino Soares Filho, Mônica de Souza Zambelli / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-25T07:16:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silva_ThayzeD'MartinCostada_M.pdf: 9346773 bytes, checksum: 73c504aef1611f22af50cead8deff7bf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: O Princípio do Equivalente Certo (PEC) garante que as abordagens determinística e estocástica são equivalentes na otimização de sistemas dinâmicos estocásticos quando satisfeitas certas condições. É possível que o problema de planejamento da operação energética (POE) se aproxime de satisfazer as condições do PEC, apesar de não atendê-las teoricamente. Assim, o objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a validade do PEC no âmbito da Programação Dinâmica aplicado ao POE de sistemas hidrotérmicos constituídos de um único reservatório e avaliar o impacto da violação de cada condição. As hipóteses do PEC foram analisadas progressivamente por meio da comparação dos resultados dos modelos considerados, desde o ideal que atende teoricamente às condições, até o mais próximo da realidade. Foram observadas diferenças pouco significativas entre as políticas de operação determinística e estocástica, indicando que o modelo de POE se aproxima de atender às condições do PEC. Uma consequência imediata deste estudo seria que a abordagem determinística do problema de POE para sistemas hidrotérmicos com um único reservatório pode ser tão eficaz quanto as abordagens estocásticas / Abstract: Certainty Equivalence Principle (CEP) ensures that deterministic and stochastic approaches are equivalent in stochastic dynamic systems optimization when some assumptions hold. It is possible that Long Term Hydrothermal Scheduling (LTHS) problem is close to attaining CEP¿s assumptions, although it does not attain them theoretically. Thus, the objective of this dissertation is to analyze the validity of CEP in Dynamic Programming framework applied to single reservoir LTHS problem and to evaluate the impacts of each CEP¿s condition violation. The CEP¿s conditions were progressive analyzed by comparison of the considered models results from an ideal case where theoretically assumptions hold until a case study closer to reality. Slight differences were observed between deterministic and stochastic operation policies, indicating that LTHS model is close to attain the CEP¿s conditions. An immediate consequence of this study would be that deterministic approach for the single reservoir LTHS problem can be as effective as stochastic ones / Mestrado / Energia Eletrica / Mestra em Engenharia Elétrica