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Macroeconomists dedicated substantial efforts to clarify the puzzle of growing incomes in some regions of the world and rising differences in standards of living across the globe. Although the question of why economies perform differently is as old as the theory of economic thought itself, it is only since recent times that economists integrate development patterns over the very long-run into formal dynamic general equilibrium models. The models we present here consider development patterns observed in advanced economies since the Industrial Revolution. The objective of this study is to shed light on the mechanics of economic development within the frame of (dynamic) general equilibrium models. Since this requires the solution of multi-dimensional and non-linear systems of difference or differential equations that govern the evolution of the model economy over time (in some cases with heterogeneous agents) analytical solutions are in general not obtainable. Therefore, this work relies on numerical and computational methods at large, in order to visualize the development path of economies over time.

Does an increase of elderly employment cause a decline in youth employment? A simplified view of a demand driven economy would give a positive answer to this question. Econometric studies based on a single equation approach deliver little support for this belief. However, these studies typically suffer from identification problems to which no attention is paid in most cases. We therefore use a general equilibrium framework when trying to quantify these effects. Using yearly and quarterly Austrian labor and gdp data, we estimate two model variants by Bayesian methods: a) a standard equilibrium model where the degree of complementarity between old, young and primary labor is crucial for the sign and strength of the relevant effects and b) a simple, solely demand driven model which always leads to a crowding out of young through an increase in employment of the old. It turned out that the demand driven model is inferior in fitting the data compared to the standard model. Further, the degree of complementarity is estimated to be strong enough to lead to a small positive effect of elderly employment on youth employment. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This study evaluates the land use changes and forests in Brazil, focusing on deforestation and its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). More specifically, it analyses: (i) how the specialized literature integrates land-use changes to GHG emissions into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework; and (ii) the economic impacts of halting the deforestation. For this purpose, this study was divided into three independent essays. The first essay is theoretical, and evaluates the state of the art of the integration between land-use change and GHG emissions into CGE models. The second essay, is an empirical study about the economic impacts of zero deforestation in the Amazon Biome. The third essay, evaluates the implication of productivity gains in agriculture on land allocation, GHG emissions and the Brazilian economy. The results highlight the difficulties to integrate land use to its GHG emissions, as well as the effectiveness of the deforestation control in the Amazon to reduce national emissions, although it imposes losses to the economy and boosts regional inequalities. Finally, productivity gains in agriculture in turn, also may reduce the domestic emissions, but with no adverse impacts on the economy. However, such effects are limited, as they expire with the productivity gains. / Este trabalho analisa as mudanças do uso da terra e florestas no Brasil, com ênfase no desmatamento e nas emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Mais especificamente, avaliam-se: (i) como a literatura especializada realiza a integração entre as mudanças do uso da terra e emissões de GEE no arcabouço dos modelos de equilíbrio geral computável (EGC); (ii) os principais impactos em termos econômicos e de emissões, de políticas de redução do desmatamento. Para isso, esta tese foi dividida em três ensaios independentes. O primeiro ensaio, de caráter teórico, avalia as principais contribuições para a integração das mudanças do uso da terra às emissões de gases de efeito estufa em modelos EGC. O segundo ensaio, é um estudo empírico sobre os impactos econômicos do desmatamento zero no Bioma Amazônia. O terceiro ensaio, analisa as implicações de ganhos de produtividade na agropecuária sobre a alocação de terras, emissões de GEE e economia brasileira. Os principais resultados evidenciam as dificuldades para a integração das mudanças do uso da terra às emissões de GEE, bem como a efetividade do controle do desmatamento na Amazônia em reduzir as emissões nacionais, apesar de impor perdas à economia e intensificar as desigualdades regionais. Já os ganhos de produtividade na agropecuária, também reduziram as emissões domésticas, mas, sem impactar negativamente a economia. Porém, tais efeitos são limitados, uma vez que expiram com os ganhos de produtividade.

O vírus de influenza aviária H5N1 tem se disseminado rapidamente por diversos países e continentes nos últimos anos, gerando grandes perdas econômicas e de vidas humanas. Existe a possibilidade de a doença chegar ao Brasil, o que provocaria elevado impacto sobre a economia, especialmente sobre o setor avícola. A ausência e a necessidade de estimativas de impacto econômico no país, derivadas de surtos de gripe aviária em território brasileiro, motivaram a presente pesquisa. Visando gerar tais estimativas e analisá-las, foram simulados três cenários utilizando-se de um modelo aplicado de equilíbrio geral inter-regional, denominado TERM-BR. O primeiro cenário (Cenário I) contempla um foco da doença no Rio Grande do Norte, região Nordeste do país. O segundo (Cenário II) simula a presença de diversos focos da doença no estado de São Paulo. O terceiro (Cenário III) considera o surgimento de diversos focos presentes nos estados Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, São Paulo e Rio Grande do Sul. Os resultados sinalizam impactos de maior dimensão na medida em que os focos da doença surgem próximos aos mercados produtores, exportadores e consumidores, como é o caso da região Sul e Sudeste. Na região Sul, em função da dimensão da avicultura na economia local, a crise do setor avícola acaba refletindo negativamente e acentuadamente sobre o conjunto da economia local. Nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, as restrições sobre a aquisição de aves vivas pelas famílias têm grande peso na retração da atividade econômica do setor avícola, já que a atividade de abate é pouco representativa e parcela importante das aves é adquirida diretamente pelas famílias, o que não acontece na mesma dimensão nas demais regiões do país. Observa-se também que o aumento do consumo de carne bovina e suína contribui para reduzir a crise na economia estadual nos estados produtores, e é também a fonte de crescimento para os estados em que a bovinocultura se destaca. O choque de demanda doméstica de produtos avícolas, comparado com os demais choques, revela-se como o principal responsável pelo comportamento na produção em quase todos os estados. Já a redução das exportações tem grande peso sobre o comportamento da produção avícola quando o foco da doença é na região exportadora ou próxima a ela. No estado de Santa Catarina, o choque de exportações prepondera sobre a queda do consumo doméstico quando do fechamento quase total dos mercados externos para carne de aves. Por último, o choque de oferta, via mortalidade das aves e destruição de ovos, pouco influencia a magnitude da queda na produção dos produtos da avicultura. / In the past few years, the bird flue virus H5N1 spread rapidly through various countries and continents, causing great economic and human losses. There is also the possibility of the disease arriving in Brazil, which would have a substantial impact on the country\'s economy, particularly on its poultry sector. The present study addresses the lack of estimates of the potential economic consequences of a bird flu outbreak on commercial poultry production in Brazil. The analysis consists of three simulations using a interregional general equilibrium model called TERM-BR. The first scenario focuses on an outbreak in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the Northeastern part of the country. The second scenario simulates an outbreak at various places in the State of Sao Paulo, and the third scenario assesses the consequences of a bird flue outbreak in various states simultaneously, Rio Grande do Norte, Rondônia, São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul. The results indicate greater economic impact when the outbreak occurs close to points of production and consumption, which is the case in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil. In the South, where the poultry sector constitutes a larger share of the local economy, a potential avian flu outbreak will also have a greater negative economic impact. In the Northern and Northeastern region, live birds are generally purchased and slaughtered directly by individual families living in suburban and small town settings rather then by large scale processors and packinghouses. This characteristic explains why potential restrictions on these small purchases of live birds will have a very large negative economic impact on the poultry sector in the affected states. A possible reduction in poultry supply could however be offset by an increase in beef and pork consumption, thereby softening the economic affect of a bird flue outbreak by promoting growth of the beef and pork industry. In most states, this fall of domestic poultry demand is the primary cause for a shift in production. In contrast, the fall in export demand only weighs heavily on the local economy when the outbreak occurs close to exporting regions. In the state of Santa Catarina, for example, the effect of a fall in export demand dominates the effect of a fall in domestic demand, as export markets are almost completely shutdown. Finally, the reduction in poultry supply through death of infected birds and destruction of eggs, has little affect on the decrease of poultry production.

Macroeconomists dedicated substantial efforts to clarify the puzzle of growing incomes in some regions of the world and rising differences in standards of living across the globe. Although the question of why economies perform differently is as old as the theory of economic thought itself, it is only since recent times that economists integrate development patterns over the very long-run into formal dynamic general equilibrium models. The models we present here consider development patterns observed in advanced economies since the Industrial Revolution. The objective of this study is to shed light on the mechanics of economic development within the frame of (dynamic) general equilibrium models. Since this requires the solution of multi-dimensional and non-linear systems of difference or differential equations that govern the evolution of the model economy over time (in some cases with heterogeneous agents) analytical solutions are in general not obtainable. Therefore, this work relies on numerical and computational methods at large, in order to visualize the development path of economies over time.

No description available.

No / Conventional models of economic behavior have failed to account for a number of observed empirical regularities in macroeconomics and international economics. This may be due to preference specifications in conventional models. In this paper, we consider preferences with the ¿spirit of capitalism¿ (the desire to accumulate wealth as a way of acquiring status). We analyze a number of potential effects of international catching-up and the spirit of capitalism on savings, growth, portfolio allocation and asset pricing. Moreover, we obtain a multi-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Our results show that status concerns have non-trivial effects on savings, growth, portfolio allocation, asset prices and the foreign exchange risk premium.

No / We compare actual and calibrated values for the foreign exchange risk premium based on the definition in [J. Int. Econ. 32 (1992) 305]. Calibrated values are found from within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy consisting of risk averse optimizing agents with unconventional preferences. We find that the equilibrium foreign exchange risk premium is a function of exogenous shocks in the model and is sensitive to assumed attitudes towards risk. Furthermore, various forms of policy uncertainty improve the capacity of the model to generate values closer to those found in the data.

One of the main concerns with the introduction of competition in the power sector is the strategic behaviour of market participants. Computable models of strategic behaviour are becoming increasingly important to understand the complexities of competition. Such models can help analyze market designs and regulatory policies. In this thesis, further developments on the modelling and analysis of strategic behaviour in electricity markets are presented. This thesis work has been conducted along three research lines. <br /><br /> In the first research line, an oligopolistic model of a joint energy and spinning reserve market is formulated to analyze imperfect competition. Strategic behaviour is introduced by means of conjectured functions. With this integrated formulation for imperfect competition, the opportunity cost between generation and spinning reserve has been analytically derived. Besides, inter-temporal and energy constraints, and financial transmission rights are taken into account. Under such considerations, competition in electricity markets is modelled with more realism. The oligopolistic model is formulated as an equilibrium problem in terms of complementarity conditions. <br /><br /> In the second research line, a methodology to screen and mitigate the potential exacerbation of market power due to the ownership of financial transmission rights is presented. Hedging position ratios are computed to quantify the hedging level of financial transmission rights. They are based on the actual impact that each participant has in the energy market, and on the potential impact that it would have with the ownership of financial transmission rights. Thus, hedging position ratios are used to identify the potential gambling positions from the transmission rights bidders, and, therefore, used to prioritize critical positions in the auction for transmission rights. <br ><br /> In the last research line, alternative equilibrium models of markets for financial transmission rights are formulated. The proposed equilibrium framework is more natural and flexible for modelling markets than the classic cost-minimization markets. Different markets for financial transmission rights are modelled, namely: i) forwards, ii) options, and iii) joint forwards and options. Moreover, one-period, multi-period and multi-round markets for forwards are derived. These equilibrium models are proposed to analyze the bidding strategies of market participants. The potential impact of bidders on congestion prices is modelled by means of conjectured transmission price functions.