[pt] A política de distribuição de dividendos têm despertado o interesse de economistas deste século e nas últimas cinco décadas foi objeto de uma intensa modelagem teórica e de testes empíricos. Um grande número de modelos é conflitante entre si (todos sem grande suporte empírico), e definem as tentativas de explicar o comportamento da distribuição de lucros. Buscaremos explicar o comportamento, fazendo uma análise empírica da distribuição de dividendos no mercado brasileiro. / [en] The politics of distribution of dividends has been an important matter of economists of this century and in last the five decades. It was object of an intense theoretical modeling and empirical tests. A great number of models are conflicting among thenselves(all without great empirical support), and define the attempts to explain the behavior of the distribution of profits. We will try to explain the behavior, making an empirical analysis of the dividends distribution, in the brazilian equity market.

Existe uma extensa literatura teórica e empírica que procura determinar quais são os fatores que determinam a estrutura de capital das empresas, no entanto pouco se concluiu a respeito dessas teorias. Buscando identificar quais são os fatores que a literatura aponta como determinantes para as decisões de financiamento das firmas, nota-se uma escassez de estudos internacionais e nacionais que tratam a liquidez no mercado de ações como um fator significante nas decisões da estrutura de capital das empresas. Neste sentindo este trabalho tem como objetivo principal investigar a relação entre liquidez no mercado de ações e estrutura de capital das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. Os dados foram coletados por meio do sistema Economática, aplicado a um conjunto de 587 firmas não financeiras durante o período de 1998 a 2009. A técnica estatística utilizada neste estudo foi a metodologia do modelo de dados em painel, devido a necessidade de se combinar características de séries temporais com dados em corte transversal. O estudo considera uma regressão em que as medidas representativas da estrutura de capital são índices de endividamento da firma e atuam como variável dependente, e as variáveis de controle são representativas das características específicas das empresas, já para liquidez no mercado de ações, foram utilizadas três medidas diferentes. Como resultado principal percebe-se que a liquidez das ações é significativa para a política de endividamento das firmas. Os resultados da análise obtidos mostraram que empresas com maior liquidez de ação apresentam maior nível de endividamento em longo prazo. / There is an extensive theoretical and empirical literature that seeks to determine what are the factors that determine the capital structure of companies. However little concluded about these theories. Seeking to identify what are the factors that the literature points as determinants to the financing decisions of firms, furthermore liquidity is notably absent in international and national empirical studies about capital structure. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between equity market liquidity and and capital structure of Brazilian publicly traded companies. We collected the data using the system Economática, using a sample of 587 Brazilian firms from 1998 - 2009. The statistical technique used in this study was the methodology of panel data model. The proxies of capital structure are levels of leverage and are used as dependent variables in the model, and control variables are representative of the specific characteristics of firms, to liquidity there were four different measures. As main result, it was found that equity liquidity is significant for the debt policy of firms. The analysis results showed that firms with more liquid equity have greater leverage.

Eventos puramente cosméticos como o desdobramento ou grupamento de ações não deveriam gerar modificações no preço de mercado das empresas que realizaram tais operações. Porém, inúmeros estudos realizados nos mercados internacionais indicam que existem retornos anormais no preço das ações para tais eventos. Foi verificada a reação do mercado brasileiro aos grupamentos de ações que ocorreram entre 1986 e 2007 através do método de estudo de eventos. Os resultados indicam que não há retorno anormal nos preços das ações e que o evento possui efeitos puramente cosméticos no mercado acionário brasileiro, divergindo dos estudos realizados ao redor do mundo, predominantemente no mercado americano. Tal fato pode ocorrer pelas diferenças institucionais entre os dois países. / Purely cosmetic events such as the split or inplits should not generate changes in market prices of companies that performed such operations. However, numerous studies in international markets indicate that there are abnormal returns in the stock price for such events. It was found that the reaction of the Brazilian market to groups of actions that occurred between 1986 and 2007 by the method of study events. The results indicate that there are no abnormal returns in stock prices for these events in the national market. These results indicate that the event is purely cosmetic in the Brazilian equity market which differs from studies conducted in other markets, but predominantly in the U.S. market, and this fact can occur by the difference in institutional settings between the two countries.

The aim of the thesis is to determine the market value of the company GZ Media, a.s. to 1.1.2015. The first part provides the basic information about the company. This chapter is than followed by financial analysis which is assessing the overall financial health of the company for the years 2010 to 2014. Strategic analysis focuses on the market and competitive position of the company and provides the forecast of the sales. The next chapter analyzes and forecasts the value generators and defines the main indicators later used for financial plan. The value of the company is calculated based on the DCF Equity method.

The primary task of the diploma thesis is the valuation of the company Family brewery Bernard corp. The corporation belongs among the biggest Czech manufacturers of beer. The goal of the valuation is to independently determine market value of the company on 1.1.2015. Taking into account the specifics of the market and the company itself it is used discounted cash flow method DCF Equity. This main method is supported by the alternate method of market comparison. The diploma thesis comprises of financial and strategical analysis, value drivers, financial plan and final valuation.

The aim of this thesis is to determine the market value of the company Kiekert-CS, s.r.o. as of 1 April 2013. Strategic analysis is the first part of this thesis, which has a crucial role throughout the valuation, because there is identified the market development potential, business potential of Kiekert-CS, s.r.o. and the means, which the company owns. Several studies of leading consulting companies are used for determination of market potential. Subsequently, there is prepared financial analysis and value drivers forecast, which underlines the financial plan. DCF equity method serves as an essential method within the process of valuation, method of market multiples is used as a complementary one. The final market value of the company Kiekert-CS, s.r.o. is set in the range of 2,9 billion CZK and 3,4 billion CZK, with the most likely market value considered by the author 3,38 billion CZK.

[pt] Um dos fatos estilizados mais pronunciados acerca das distribuições de retornos financeiros diz respeito à presença de caudas pesadas. Isso torna os modelos paramétricos tradicionais de cálculo de Valor em Risco (VaR) inadequados para a estimulação de VaR de baixas probabilidades (1% ou menos), dado que estes se baseiam na hipótese de normalidade para as distribuições dos retornos. Tais modelos não são capazes de inferir sobre as reais possibilidades de ocorrência retornos atípicos. Sendo assim, o objetivo de presente trabalho é investigar o desempenho de modelos baseados na Teoria dos Valores Extremos para cálculos de VaR, comparando-os com modelos tradicionais. Um modelo incondicional, proposto a caracterizar o comportamento de longo prazo da série, e um modelo condicional, sugerido por McNeil e Frey (1999), proposto a caracterizar a dependência presente na variância condicional dos retornos foram utilizados e testados em quatro séries de retornos de ações representativas do mercado brasileiro: retornos de Ibovespa, retornos de Ibovespa Futuro, retornos das ações da Telesp e retornos das ações da Petrobrás. Os resultados indicam que os modelos baseados na Teoria dos Valores Extremos são mais adequados para a modelagem das caudas, e conseqüente para a estimulação de Valor em Risco quando os níveis de probabilidade de interesse são baixos. Além disso, modelo condicional é mais adequado em épocas de crise, pois, ao contrário do modelo incondicional, tem a capacidade de responder rapidamente a mudanças na volatilidade. Medidas de risco, como a perda média e a perda mediana também foram propostas, a fim de fornecer estimativas para as perdas no caso do VaR ser violado. / [en] The existence of fat tails is one of the striking stylized facts of financial returns distribution. This fact makes the use of traditional parametric models for Value at Risk (VaR) stimulation unsuitable for the estimation of low probability events (1% or less). This is because traditional models are based on the conditional normality assumption for financial returns distributions, making them unsuitable to predict the actual probabilities of occurrence of atypical returns. The main purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the performance of VaR models based on extreme Value Theory (EVT), and to compare them to some traditional models. Two classes of models are investigated. The first class is based in an unconditional model, which characterizes the long-term behavior of the time series of returns. The other class of models is a conditional one, which incorporates the short-term behavior of the return series, characterized by the strong dependency observed on the conditional variance of the returns. Both models were applied to four representative time series of the Brazilian stock market: The Bovespa Index, Future of Bovespa Index, Telesp stocks and Petrobrás stocks. The results indicates that EVT based models are suitable for low probability VaR stimulation estimation. Besides that, its possible to conclude that the conditional model is more appropriate for crisis periods, because of its capacity to quickly respond to volatily changes. Alternative risk measures are also used, to give estimates losses magnitudes in the case of VaR violation.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:31:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Marcos Robertoprot.pdf: 3270286 bytes, checksum: 656412122410522073af0f0ac5a7066e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-03 / Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie / The aim of this study is to verify the influence of the sector of activities, economic and market factors and business performance in the definition of capital structure. It uses data from Economática with 415 Brazilian companies that operated in the capital market (BM&FBOVESPA), between 2001 and 2014, to examine the behavior to such dimensions and their adherence to the wider theoretical set today. Inappropriate decisions of capital structure raises the cost of capital, hindering acceptable investments that maximize the wealth of the owners. Many studies regarding the indebtedness of companies were made in recent decades, but so far has no obvious response of relevance or lack thereof. In this sense, one can conclude that we do not have a theory fully accepted on the capital structure. It is difficult to generalize about funding policies because they differ widely from company to company and in the various sectors of activity. The specific variables to business performance continue to be used exhaustively to seek underpin a theoretical framework on the subject. Other studies, on a smaller scale, mainly in Brazil, investigate a possible influence of the sectors of activity and the economics and market conditions / restrictions in the choice of capital structure. In this sense, realizing the gap of capital structure studies in Brazil, that address sectors of activity and economic and market variables, it opens up the opportunity for this research project. As a result it appears that, after robust regression problems correct order autocorrelation of errors and heteroscedasticity, the variables average leverage of sector, investment of sector, Ibovespa, GDP, inflation, market-to-book, Tobin's Q, profitability, liquidity, growth and business risk were statistically significant in order to explain the variations dependent variable, ie, leverage the market value. Other variables, such as concentration of the sector, interest rate, size and tangibility, did not show, after the robust regression, statistical significance. As a result it appears that, after robust regression correct order autocorrelation problems of errors and heteroscedasticity, the average leverage variables sector, industry investment, Ibovespa, gdp, inflation, market-to-book, Tobin's Q, profitability, liquidity, growth and business risk were statistically significant in order to explain the variations of the dependent variable, ie, leverage at market value. Other variables, such as concentration of the sector, interest rate, size and tangibility, did not show, after the robust regression, statistical significance. / O objetivo principal deste estudo é verificar a influência do setor de atividades, dos fatores econômicos e de mercado e do desempenho empresarial na definição da estrutura de capital. Utiliza-se de dados da Economática com 415 empresas brasileiras que atuaram no mercado de capitais (BM&FBOVESPA), no período entre 2001 e 2014, buscando examinar o comportamento de tais dimensões e sua aderência ao conjunto teórico mais difundido atualmente. Decisões inadequadas de estrutura de capital eleva o custo de capital, dificultando investimentos aceitáveis que maximize a riqueza dos proprietários. Muitos estudos em relação ao endividamento das empresas foram realizados nas últimas décadas, mas, até agora, não foi encontrada uma resposta de relevância ou falta dela. Neste sentido, pode-se concluir que não temos ainda uma teoria totalmente aceita sobre a estrutura de capital. É difícil generalizar sobre políticas de financiamento, pois elas diferem bastante de empresa para empresa e nos diversos setores de atividades. As variáveis específicas de desempenho empresarial continuam sendo usadas de forma exaustiva para buscar alicerçar um arcabouço teórico a respeito do tema. Outros estudos, em menor escala, principalmente no Brasil, investigam uma possível influência do setor de atividade e das condições/restrições econômicas e de mercado na escolha da estrutura de capital. Neste sentido, percebendo a lacuna de estudos de estrutura de capital no Brasil, que contemplem setor de atividades e variáveis econômicas e de mercado, abre-se a oportunidade para a contribuição deste projeto de pesquisa. Como resultado constata-se que, após regressão robusta visando corrigir problemas de autocorrelação dos erros e heterocedasticidade, que as variáveis alavancagem média do setor, investimentos do setor, Ibovespa, pib, inflação, market-to-book, Q de Tobin, lucratividade, liquidez, crescimento e risco do negócio apresentaram significância estatística, no sentido de explicar as variações da variável dependente, ou seja, a alavancagem a valor de mercado. Outras variáveis, como concentração do setor, taxa de juros, tamanho e tangibilidade, não apresentaram, depois da regressão robusta, significância estatística.

Understanding financial asset return correlation is a key facet in asset allocation and investor’s portfolio optimization strategy. For the last decades, several studies have investigated this relationship between stock and bond returns. But, fewer studies have dealt with multi-asset return dynamics. While initial literature attempted to understand the fundamental pattern of comovements, later studies model the economic state variables influencing such time-varying comovements of primarily stock and bond returns. Research widely acknowledges that return distributions of financial assets are non-normal. When the joint distributions of the asset returns follow a non-elliptical structure, linear correlation fails to provide sufficient information of their dependence structure. In particular two issues arise from this existing empirical evidence. The first is to propose a more reliable alternative density specification for a higher-dimensional case. The second is to formulate a measure of the variables’ dependence structure which is more instructive than linear correlation. In this work I use a time-varying conditional multivariate elliptical and non-elliptical copula to examine the return comovements of three different asset classes: financial assets, commodities and real estate in the US market. I establish the following stylized facts about asset return comovements. First, the static measures of asset return comovements overestimate the asset return comovements in the economic expansion phase, while underestimating it in the periods of economic contraction. Second, Student t-copulas outperform both elliptical and non-elliptical copula models, thus confirming the ii dominance of Student t-distribution. Third, findings show a significant increase in asset return comovements post August 2007 subprime crisis ... [cont.].

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