The diploma thesis deals with current issues of risk management in a selected insurance company. The thesis is conceptually divided into two parts the literature recherche and the empirical part. The first section introduces the individual risks and the basic methods of the quantification of the risks which affect the functioning of commercial insurances. A new system of European insurance regulation, Solvency II, is also described. The empirical part of the diploma thesis deals with the risk quantification of the selected insurance company according to the standard and internal model. The thesis is concluded with the evaluation of the risk management in the selected insurance company and of the company preparedness for the regulatory regime Solvency II. Based on this quantification, the recommendations are put forward to improve the risk management of the selected insurer.

We have developed a game-theory based prediction tool, named Preana, based on a promising model developed by Professor Bruce Beuno de Mesquita. The first part of this work is dedicated to exploration of the specifics of Mesquita's algorithm and reproduction of the factors and features that have not been revealed in literature. In addition, we have developed a learning mechanism to model the players' reasoning ability when it comes to taking risks. Preana can predict the outcome of any issue with multiple stake-holders who have conflicting interests in economic, business, and political sciences. We have utilized game theory, expected utility theory, Median voter theory, probability distribution and reinforcement learning. We were able to reproduce Mesquita's reported results and have included two case studies from his publications and compared his results to that of Preana. We have also applied Preana on Iran's 2013 presidential election to verify the accuracy of the prediction made by Preana.

x, 94 p. : ill. (some col.) / This paper examines how competition faced by firms affects asset risk and expected returns. Contrary to Hou and Robinson's (2006) findings, I find that cross-industry variation in competition, as measured by the concentration ratio, is not a robust determinant of unconditional expected stock returns. In contrast, within-industry competition, as measured by relative price markup, is positively related to expected stock returns. Moreover, this relation is not captured by commonly used models of expected returns. When using the Markov regime-switching model advocated by Perez-Quiros and Timmermann (2000), I test and find support for Aguerrevere's (2009) recent model of competition find risk dynamics. In particular, systematic risk is greater in more competitive industries during bad times and greater in more concentrated industries during good times. In addition, real investment by firms facing greater competition leads real investment by firms facing less competition, supporting Aguerrevere's notion that less competition results in higher growth options and hence higher risk in good times. / Committee in charge: Dr. Roberto Gutierrez, Chair; Dr. Roberto Gutierrez, Advisor; Dr. Diane Del Guercio, Inside Member; Dr. John Chalmers， Inside Member； Dr. Bruce Blonigen， Outside Member

This Diploma Thesis deals with the problem of cyberbullying at basic schools and its place in the lessons of media education. The theoretical part is divided into two parts. The first part handles with the specification of lessons of media education as they are defined in the ?RVP ZV?. It also mentions the recommended expected outputs which in the field of media education include also the problem of safe using of the internet and mobile phones at schools. The second part handles with cyberbullying considering its actuality and differences from the classic bullying. The methods of preventing and possible solutions are emphasized as well as the introduction of some stories from the reality. The practical part describes the circumstances of creating the lessons. This is followed by the description of six linked lessons and the evaluation of the process of the education. The evaluation is based on the feed-back from the students and their suggestions. The aim of my Diploma Thesis is to show a possible way of the realisation of lessons including the problem of cyberbullying in the lessons of media education. I also wanted to refer to the importance of bringing this problem to basic schools.

Nesta tese analisamos a influência dos preços dos ativos na condução da política monetária nos países emergentes no período de 1990 a 2006. Primeiramente, investigamos a presença de bolhas racionais nos preços das ações dos países emergentes através de testes de cointegração linear e não linear. Os resultados indicam a presença de bolhas racionais em pelo menos um dos testes realizados para cada um dos países estudados. Todavia, nossos resultados permitem concluir que as bolhas tendem a ser provocadas por fatores extrínsecos e não pela relação não linear intrínseca entre os preços das ações e os dividendos. Estudamos também a relação entre os retornos de mercado, inflação esperada e crescimento/hiato do produto, através de testes individuais e em conjunto utilizando modelos em painel linear e não linear. Em ambos verificamos que as variáveis financeiras carregam informações úteis, tanto direta como indireta, a respeito da inflação e do crescimento do produto, dentro ou fora da amostra. Por fim, investigamos se os preços dos ativos devem exercer um papel central nas decisões de política monetária, através de modelos GMM (individuais e em painel) e de otimização dinâmica. Os resultados indicam que a razão dividendo-preço e a taxa de câmbio real são bons instrumentos na função de reação dos bancos centrais dos países emergentes, porém não podemos concluir que estas variáveis devam ser utilizadas como argumentos nestas funções de reação. Os resultados também indicam que, nos países que optaram pelo regime de metas de inflação estrita, a melhor opção seria não considerar explicitamente os retornos das ações em suas funções de reação. Para bancos centrais atuando em regimes de metas de inflação com política monetária acomodatícia ou outro tipo de regime, a melhor opção seria considerar os preços das ações em suas funções de reação. / We examine the relationship (if any) between stock prices and monetary policy in 22 emerging countries over the period 1990-2006. First, we investigate whether rational stock price bubbles are present in such countries using linear and nonlinear cointegration. Bubbles were found in at least one out of the six tests considered. These were likely to be caused by extrinsic factors, rather than by the intrinsic nonlinear relation between the stock prices and dividends. Secondly, we evaluate the link between market returns, expected inflation and output gap and growth by employing both individual and joint tests of linear and nonlinear panel models. We find that the stock prices convey useful information about inflation and output growth in-sample and out-of-the-sample Finally, we ask whether the stock prices are to be given a central role in monetary policy decisions using both (individual and panel) GMM models and dynamic optimization. We find that though the dividend-price ratio and the real exchange rate can provide useful information for monetary policy decisions, we should not jump to the conclusion that they have to be considered as arguments of the central banks' reaction functions. For the central banks with explicit inflation targeting, the best choice is not to consider the stock returns in their reaction functions. However, for the other regimes the best choice is to consider the stock returns in the reaction functions.

Nesta tese analisamos a influência dos preços dos ativos na condução da política monetária nos países emergentes no período de 1990 a 2006. Primeiramente, investigamos a presença de bolhas racionais nos preços das ações dos países emergentes através de testes de cointegração linear e não linear. Os resultados indicam a presença de bolhas racionais em pelo menos um dos testes realizados para cada um dos países estudados. Todavia, nossos resultados permitem concluir que as bolhas tendem a ser provocadas por fatores extrínsecos e não pela relação não linear intrínseca entre os preços das ações e os dividendos. Estudamos também a relação entre os retornos de mercado, inflação esperada e crescimento/hiato do produto, através de testes individuais e em conjunto utilizando modelos em painel linear e não linear. Em ambos verificamos que as variáveis financeiras carregam informações úteis, tanto direta como indireta, a respeito da inflação e do crescimento do produto, dentro ou fora da amostra. Por fim, investigamos se os preços dos ativos devem exercer um papel central nas decisões de política monetária, através de modelos GMM (individuais e em painel) e de otimização dinâmica. Os resultados indicam que a razão dividendo-preço e a taxa de câmbio real são bons instrumentos na função de reação dos bancos centrais dos países emergentes, porém não podemos concluir que estas variáveis devam ser utilizadas como argumentos nestas funções de reação. Os resultados também indicam que, nos países que optaram pelo regime de metas de inflação estrita, a melhor opção seria não considerar explicitamente os retornos das ações em suas funções de reação. Para bancos centrais atuando em regimes de metas de inflação com política monetária acomodatícia ou outro tipo de regime, a melhor opção seria considerar os preços das ações em suas funções de reação. / We examine the relationship (if any) between stock prices and monetary policy in 22 emerging countries over the period 1990-2006. First, we investigate whether rational stock price bubbles are present in such countries using linear and nonlinear cointegration. Bubbles were found in at least one out of the six tests considered. These were likely to be caused by extrinsic factors, rather than by the intrinsic nonlinear relation between the stock prices and dividends. Secondly, we evaluate the link between market returns, expected inflation and output gap and growth by employing both individual and joint tests of linear and nonlinear panel models. We find that the stock prices convey useful information about inflation and output growth in-sample and out-of-the-sample Finally, we ask whether the stock prices are to be given a central role in monetary policy decisions using both (individual and panel) GMM models and dynamic optimization. We find that though the dividend-price ratio and the real exchange rate can provide useful information for monetary policy decisions, we should not jump to the conclusion that they have to be considered as arguments of the central banks' reaction functions. For the central banks with explicit inflation targeting, the best choice is not to consider the stock returns in their reaction functions. However, for the other regimes the best choice is to consider the stock returns in the reaction functions.

This thesis challenges several concepts in finance. Firstly, it is the Markowitz's solution to the portfolio problem. It introduces a new method which de- noises the covariance matrix - the cornerstone of the portfolio management. Random Matrix Theory originates in particle physics and was recently intro- duced to finance as the intersection between economics and natural sciences has widened over the past couple of years. Often discussed Efficient Market Hypothesis is opposed by adopting the assumption, that financial returns are driven by Paretian distributions, in- stead of Gaussian ones, as conjured by Mandelbrot some 50 years ago. The portfolio selection is set in a framework, where Expected Shortfall replaces the standard deviation as the risk measure. Therefore, direct optimi- sation of the portfolio is implemented to be compared with the performance of the classical solution and its denoised counterpart. The results are evalu- ated in a controlled environment of Monte Carlo simulation as well as using empirical data from S&P 500 constituents. 1

abstract: To guide the timetabling and vehicle assignment of urban bus systems, a group of optimization models were developed for scenarios from simple to complex. The model took the interaction of prospective passengers and bus companies into consideration to achieve the maximum financial benefit as well as social satisfaction. The model was verified by a series of case studies and simulation from which some interesting conclusions were drawn. / Dissertation/Thesis / Simulation File, including CSV data file / Masters Thesis Industrial Engineering 2014

This paper analyses the impact of banking mergers on systemic risk, with in particular if internationalization prior to acquisition increases systemic risk. By using the marginal expected shortfall methodology for an international sample of mergers, a significant increase in systemic risk is found as a result of mergers in the financial sector. Moreover, if a bank is operating internationally prior to acquisition, this increases systemic risk. Additionally, there is evidence of a too-big-to-fail motive for relatively smaller banks to use mergers to become systemically important. The results confirm that consolidation in the financial sector increases fragility of the financial system.

Abstract Weather conditions during the growing season are determining the size and quality of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) seed crop in northern areas. Pathogens, fungi, and insects also have an effect on seed crops. The varying quality of seeds from forest stands and seed orchards does not full fill the germination requirements of tree nurseries. Multi-phase pre-treatment are therefore used in forest tree seed centres to improve seed lots quality. The main objectives of this study were to analyse long-term variation in the size and quality of Scots pine seed crops in Northern Finland. Determine the impact of fungal injuries on the structures of Norway spruce seeds. To detect changes in the germination capacity and rate of Norway spruce seeds during pre-treatment phases and to determine the impacts of short-term and long-term storage on the germination of treated seeds. The study found that in most years, regeneration of Scots pine in Northern Finland is limited by quantity as well as quality the seed crop. The long-term average of the Scots pine seed crop was 77seeds/m2 and the long-term average expected germination percentage was 61%. Aeciospores of the inlad spruce cone rust Chrysomyxa pirolata (Körnicke) Wint. were found to form inside Norway spruce seeds, destroying the nucellar layers and reducing germination of seeds. In general, the germination capacity and rate of Norway spruce seeds increased during pre-treatment phases. The germination capacity of seeds increased about 30% and the rate by more than 40% during pre-treatment. During long-term storage the germination capacity and rate of pre-treated Scots pine seeds were preserved better in frozen storage than in cool storage. It was found that pre-treated Scots pine forest stand seeds can be stored for several years in frozen conditions. The germination capacity and rate of pre-treated orchard seeds were effected significantly more than those from forest stands. It is therefore recommended that Scots pine seeds from orchards be stored without pre-treatment. The germination capacity and rate of treated Norway spruce seeds from orchards was not significantly different after one year of storage.