Thesis (M.Com (Economics)) --University of Limpopo, 2018 / The burden of public debt is an economic issue, dominating debates in different sectors of our society. The post financial crisis era has been marked with an increasing level of public debt at international, national and sub-national level. The study investigates if public debt can affect economic growth in South Africa, for the period 1995 to 2016. The results for Johansen test of cointegration signposted the existence of cointegration among variables observed in this study. The trace statistic and max-eigen value complimented each other to confirm the cointegration, thus, showing a long run relationship. Furthermore, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to achieve the objectives of the study, complemented by other econometric tests such as, Granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The VECM results revealed the existence of a short run relationship between public debt and economic growth. Granger causality results have shown that public debt can Granger cause economic growth, and there is bi-direction relationship between the two variables. The results for Variance Decomposition indicate that, a shock to public debt causes 1.509115 % fluctuation in economic growth in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, a shock to public debt account for 16.39628 % fluctuations in economic growth. This shows that, as time goes on, a shock to public debt account for a high percent of fluctuation in economic growth. The Impulse Response Function has shown that, the period of ten quarters marks a negative response of economic growth to public debt. Thus, one standard deviation shock in public debt will inversely affect economic growth. The diagnostic tests such as serial correlation and heteroskedasticity bode well for the model because, neither serial correlation nor heteroskedasticity has been found. Moreover, the model has shown that the residuals are normally distributed, and also the stability of the model has been confirmed. The study recommends that, since South Africa is a capital scarce country, it is encouraged to borrow so that there is an increase in the accumulation of capital. However, the later stage of borrowing marked with high debt will lead to subdued economic growth. / SETA

Radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGN) are one class of objects associated with accretion activity onto supermassive black holes in centers of massive galaxies. They are believed to be in a radiatively-inefficient accretion mode with low accretion rate. To understand this accretion mode, it is important to measure its radiative output at high energies (> 13.6eV), which can be traced through optical emission lines. However, little is known about their true radiative output. This is because no correlation between optical emission-line and radio luminosity has been found for the majority of low-luminosity radio AGN, which are often classified as low-excitation radio galaxies, or Fanaroff-Riley Class I (FR-I) radio galaxies. We demonstrate that most of the line emission found in these galaxies is not powered by the central AGN, but likely powered by some old stellar population. Only when this component is subtracted or otherwise taken into account can we estimate the true line emission associated with the AGN. These emissions may show interesting correlations with the radio luminosities in some cases.

A majority of disk galaxies host stellar bars that regulate and amplify the flow of angular momentum, J, between disks and their parent dark matter (DM) halos. These bars constitute the prime factor driving internal galaxy evolution. Yet, a non-negligible fraction of disks lack this morphological feature, which led to adoption of the Hubble Fork Diagram. The complex evolution of barred galaxies has been studied by means of numerical simulations, complemented by observations. Despite prolonged efforts, many fundamental questions remain, in part because cosmological simulations still lack the necessary resolution to account for resonant interactions and simulations of isolated galaxies have ignored the cosmological spin of halos. The goal of my thesis is to analyze the J-redistribution in barred galaxies embedded in spinning DM halos, and quantify the DM response. Using high-resolution N-body stellar and DM numerical simulations, I model and analyze the dynamical and secular evolution of stellar bars in disk galaxies and their DM counterparts —induced DM bars in spinning halos with a range of cosmological spin parameter λ ~ 0-0.09. Using a novel method to create initial conditions for the self-consistent equilibrium disk-halo systems, and evolving them for 10 Gyr, I follow the basic parameters of stellar and DM bars, including their observational corollaries. My conclusions are based on nonlinear orbit analysis which quantifies the orbit trapping by the resonances. My main results emphasize a new effect: the DM halo spin has a profound effect on the evolution of stellar and DM bars. Specifically, with increasing λ in the prograde direction: (1) stellar bars develop faster dynamically, but (2) experience a reduced growth during the secular phase of evolution, and basically dissolve for λ > 0.06. These disks can represent the unbarred branch of galaxies on the Hubble Fork Diagram; (3) the stellar bar pattern speeds level off and lose less J; and (4) the stellar bars exhibit ratios of corotation-to-bar radii, RCR/Rbar > 2, representing the so-called slow bars without offset dust lanes. Furthermore, I find that (5) the induced DM bars reach maximal amplitudes which strongly depend on λ, while those of the stellar bars do not; (6) efficiency of resonance trapping of DM orbits by the DM bars, their masses and volumes — all increase with λ; (7) contribution of resonant transfer of J to the DM halo increases with λ as well. (8) prograde and retrograde DM orbits play different roles in J-transfer. (9) Finally, I find that dependence of DM response on λ has important implications for a direct detection of DM and of the associated stellar tracers, such as 'streamers.' Additional results relate the above analysis of corotating disks and halos with those of the counter-rotating ones.

The purpose of this quantitative cross-sectional study was to obtain a more accurate diagnosis of the factors that incite terrorism through examining the extent to which independent variables (the Group Grievance Index (GGI), the Legitimate State Index (LSI), and the External Intervention Index (EII)) can predict the dependent variable (the level of global terrorism (GTI)) for the period between 2006-2017. The study included data from the 162 member states of the United Nations, covering 99.7% of the world's population. Game theory and the political process theory provided the theoretical frameworks for the study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to assess the effect of the interaction on the relation between GGI, SLI, EII, and GTI. The results of the study showed that the relationship between the level of terrorism and the independent variables varies according to the level of terrorism. Interaction between GGI, SLI, and EII was negatively associated with GTI in countries with low GTI risk with an adjusted odds ratio 0.99, but in the countries with a medium and high level of GTI, the relationship was positive, and the adjusted odds ratio was respectively 1.01 and 1.02. The findings benefit international and national security decision-makers by identifying the nature of the relationship between terrorism and the factors affecting it. As well, the importance of considering the interaction between variables that affect terrorism. The results of the study may serve to bring social change within government cultures in the third world when dealing with minorities and grievance groups. Furthermore, it may motivate third world nations to achieve legitimate representation within all social strata and push the international community to reduce interference in the affairs of other sovereign nations.

Cette thèse porte sur analyser la place de l'audit, plus particulièrement l'audit externe, dans l'évolution de gouvernance des organisations publiques à Djibouti qui a débuté depuis plus de quinze (15) ans. Il s'agit aussi d'apporter des éléments de réponse sur les formes d'audit qui sont associés à cette évolution de la gouvernance. Il s'agit ici d'une l'analyse des pratiques de contrôle externe relatives au secteur public djiboutien et plus particulièrement celles concernant les établissements publics, en s’appuyant sur un cadre théorique privilégiant les relations entre parties prenantes de la gouvernance de ces organisations.Pour ce faire, cette recherche se propose, après avoir proposer un cadre d'analyse de la gouvernance et des systèmes de contrôle externe dans lequel évoluent les établissements public djiboutien, de montrer la place essentiel de l’audit externe dans la gouvernance de ces établissements publics en tant que mécanisme de règlement des conflits d’intérêts entre les principaux acteurs de la vie publique. / This thesis analyzes the place of the audit, more particularly the external audit, in the evolution of governance of the public organizations in Djibouti which began for more than fifteen years. This study is also bringing answers on the forms of audit which are associated to this evolution of the governance.To do it, this search proposes, having proposed a frame of analysis of the governance and the systems of external control in which evolve the Djiboutian public institutions, to show the essential place of the external audit in the governance of these public institutions as mechanism of regulation of conflicts between the main actors of the public administration.

This study analyzes the determination of the exchange rate system in a small economy when external real and monetary disturbances occur. Choice of exchange rate policy is investigated using a model assuming rational expectations and a loss function expressing the squared deviations of the small country output from desired output. The distinguishing feature of the analysis is the emphasis on real as well as monetary disturbances which originate abroad but are a source of domestic output variation. the link between foreign monetary and real disturbances and variance in output is traced using the thoretical model and the loss function assumed. The emphasis of the analysis is on a three country (one small and two large) trading situation, whereby the small country trades with two major large country trading partners. It is assumed throughout that there is perfect commodity arbitrage between two large countries. The small country imports an intermediate good from one of the large countries and exports a finished good. The small country doesnot import goods for consumption. there is perfect capital movement between two large countries, but capital is immobile between the small and these two large countries. The analysis indicates that occurrence of purely nominal shocks abroad are not transmitted to the small country under floating exchange rate system. The presence of real disturbances in large countries induce lower prices for the goods they produce, but the effect on the exchange rate is ambiguos. This study concludes that in general the adoption of a flexible exchange rate system by a small country is preferred and results in lower loss in most cases of external disturbance.

This study explores the most current theories surrounding organization-public relationship measurement, which is one approach used to verify the effectiveness of public relations programs. The study attempted to define and test two new factors that may affect organization-public relationships, which are identified as public image and public trust. Existing factors used to test such relationships, such as trust, satisfaction, commitment, and control mutuality, focus on testing the perceptions stakeholders have about an organization based upon their interpersonal relationship with that organization. However, in organizations where the dominant coalition still does not view public relations as a management function, use of the existing scales to measure the long-term effectiveness of public relations programs can be dangerous and inaccurate, especially when public relations practitioners are not responsible for creating, maintaining, or managing those organization-public relationships. A 65-item questionnaire was administered via email to a convenience sample of 5,799 stakeholders. A total of 1,193 completed questionnaires were received; however, a response rate could not be reported because the questionnaire was posted to a popular Internet site. The survey instrument tested new items for public image and public trust, as well as the existing relationship items of trust, satisfaction, commitment, and control mutuality defined by Hon and J. E. Grunig (1999). Factor analysis defined two new indices for public image and public trust and Cronbach's alpha further supported the reliability of these measures. Also, Cronbach's alphas tested reliable for trust, satisfaction, commitment, and control mutuality. However, when all items for public image, public trust, trust, satisfaction, commitment, and control mutuality were subject to factor analysis, all but four items weighted into one factor. This suggests the need to further explore new measurement tools for assessing the long-term effectiveness of public relations programs beyond the organization-public relationship.

This study examined the concept of organizational uncertainty and the involvement of public relations practitioners. Understanding organizational uncertainty is imperative to the success of an organization, but the effects of uncertainty have been relatively undertheorized within public relations. To close the gap, this study blended multidisciplinary theories pertaining to uncertainty with a triangulated methodological approach. First, this study took a macro-organizational look at uncertainty by analyzing trends in the literature and conducting qualitative in-depth interviews with members of management and employees in an organization. The results of this portion of the study found uncertainty to be multi-layered and the most common causes of uncertainty to be organizational changes, unclear policies, job insecurities, and the external environment. This data was then used to conduct a micro-organizational analysis of uncertainty. Therefore, the second step of this study expanded on the organizational findings to look at the role of public relations in uncertainty management. Through this study, a valuable survey instrument was created containing five significant factors of: job insecurities, the external environment, organization uncertainty, practitioner perceived involvement, and practitioner feelings. It was administered, primarily through use of the Internet, to members of the Public Relations Society of America (N=1,135), yielding a response rate of 31.8 percent. The results of this study indicated that public relations practitioners do not perceive four main causes of uncertainty, but instead they perceive two: job insecurities and the external environment. The results also suggest that public relations practitioners personally have low feelings of uncertainty, although they believed their organizations have moderate levels of uncertainty. Additionally, this study found that practitioners reported being moderately involved in the management of uncertainty, with the level of involvement most influenced by job insecurities. Finally, the results found that public relations practitioners most frequently used electronic communication to help employees cope with organizational uncertainty pertaining to organizational change, policies, and the external environment. However, with job insecurities, interpersonal communication was the most popular communication strategy. Overall, the results of this study bring us a step closer in establishing a framework for public relations practitioner involvement in the management of organizational uncertainty.

El presente documento tiene como finalidad proponer un modelo de gestión de interesados externos que mejore la dinámica que se maneja actualmente en las áreas de Responsabilidad Social Corporativa de las empresas del sector minero peruano, en particular, en la región Pasco. Se realizó una evaluación y diagnóstico acerca de la situación de los proyectos en dicha región. Para ello, se recopiló información de las principales fuentes del Estado, quienes llevan registro de la evolución del sector. Se analizaron los conflictos que conllevaron la creciente exploración minera y su impacto en los aspectos económico, social y medioambiental del país. De la misma forma, se realizó un análisis de las herramientas y buenas prácticas idóneas para la gestión de interesados externos para proyectos mineros en la región Pasco. El nuevo modelo de gestión de interesados externos contribuirá al logro del desarrollo sostenible a partir de la creación de un área de gestión de interesados externos que brinde los lineamientos necesarios para el registro de interesados, comunicación y flujo adecuado de información relevante del proyecto. Se ha estimado que la implementación de esta área se traducirá en un ahorro económico y de recursos, y preservará una buena relación con los interesados externos del proyecto, así como la imagen y reputación de la empresa. / The purpose of this document is to propose a management model for external stakeholders that will improve the dynamics currently being handled in the areas of Corporate Social Responsibility of companies in the Peruvian mining sector, particularly in the Pasco region. An evaluation and diagnosis was made about the situation of the mining projects in that region. For that purpose, information was gathered from the main sources of the State, who keep track of the industry's evolution. The conflicts that led to the growing mining exploration and its impact on the economic, social and environmental aspects of the country were analyzed. In the same way, an analysis was conducted about the tools and good practices for the management of external stakeholders for mining projects in the Pasco region. The new management model of external stakeholders will contribute to the achievement of sustainable development through the creation of a management area for external stakeholders that provides the necessary guidelines for the registration of interested parties, communication and adequate flow of relevant project information. It has been estimated that the implementation of this area will result in economic and resource savings, and will preserve a good relationship with the external stakeholders of the project, as well as the image and reputation of the company. / Trabajo de investigación

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