Heavy rainfall is a common source of disasters in Taiwan. In recent years, floods have become more frequent and more severe. Therefore, there is a need for more research on Taiwanese flood preparedness. This study aims to study Kaohsiung residents¡¦ risk perception and preparation for floods, using Rogers¡¦ (1983) protection motivation theory as the theoretical model. A convenience sample of 256 residents answered the questionnaire in this study. Results found that respondents¡¦ perception of flood risk and perception of weather forecast (its timeliness, accuracy and comprehensibility) could affect their intent to prepare. These findings suggest that the government should put more effort into flood risk education and improve the quality and trustworthiness of weather forecast.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23497号 / 工博第4909号 / 新制||工||1767(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻 / (主査)教授 清水 芳久, 教授 米田 稔, 准教授 松田 知成 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Changes in global climate will likely increase climate variability. In turn, changes in climate variability have begun to alter the frequency, intensity, and timing of climate disturbances. Continued changes in the climate disturbance regime experienced by natural systems will undoubtedly affect ecological processes at every hierarchical scale. Thus, in order to predict the dynamics of ecological systems in the future, we must develop a more mechanistic understanding of how and in what ways climate disturbance affects natural systems. In South Florida, two climate disturbances recently affected the region, a severe cold spell in 2010, and a drought in 2011. Importantly, these disturbances affected an ecosystem of long-term, comprehensive, and persistent ecological study in the Shark River estuary in the Everglades National Park. The aims of my dissertation were to (1) assess the relative severity of these two climate disturbances, (2) identify effects of these disturbances on community structuring, (3) compare community change from the 2010 cold spell with community change from another extreme cold spell that affected sub-tropical China in 2008, (4) assess the effects of the drought on predator prey interactions in the Shark River and (5) apply a spatial approach to predicting population resistance to these events. My results show that the 2010 cold spell was the most severe cold event to affect the Shark River in the last 80 years, while the drought was the worst drought to occur in the last 10 years. The cold spell drove community change that was predictable based on the traits of component species, whereas community change was less predictable using trait-based approaches. When comparing community change from the extreme 2010 event in Florida with the event in China, I identified three consistencies related to community change from extreme cold events that occurred across both events that will help build generalized understanding of community resistance to increasingly extreme climate events in the future. From the trophic study, I found that the drought reduced prey for estuarine piscivores. Not only was prey biomass reduced, the drought drove a compositional shift in prey communities from fish to invertebrates, which are lower in calories. Last, I found that animal movement may create temporally dynamic resistance scenarios that should be accounted for when developing predictive models.

[pt] Movimentos e coletivos sociais urbanos têm desempenhado um papel fundamental nas pautas dos direitos sociais e econômicos ao longo da história. Já a agenda climática se desenvolveu e se fortaleceu principalmente em espaços de governança globais, dominados por cientistas, organizações não governamentais e governos, e só nas últimas décadas têm tido mais permeabilidade em normativas e debates nacionais e subnacionais. O presente artigo pretende articular a ideia de como se expressa atualmente o encontro entre os debates globais e a experiência de movimentos e coletivos urbanos no trato da pauta climática, trazendo um estudo de caso da comunidade de Vila Arraes, em Recife, que foi fortemente atingida por chuvas torrenciais em maio de 2022, e desde então tem se fortalecido para enfrentar eventos climáticos extremos. O estudo busca identificar os principais elementos incorporados pelo coletivo comunitário local para voltar a sua atuação para o enfrentamento das mudanças climáticas e desenvolvimento da capacidade de resiliência e resposta da comunidade a eventos extremos e como eles podem trazer respostas para lacunas dos debates globais. Embora ainda haja uma distância significativa entre a agenda global e os desafios vividos pelas comunidades mais afetadas pelas mudanças climáticas, há oportunidades de enriquecer os debates globais, em especial quando se trata da aplicação de planos de adaptação climática, resiliência comunitária e perdas e danos, a partir das experiências do território. / [en] Urban social movements and collectives have played a fundamental role in the social and economic rights agenda throughout history. The climate agenda, on the other hand, has been developed and strengthened mainly in global governance spaces, dominated by scientists, non-governmental organizations and governments, and only in recent decades has it become more permeable in national and sub-national regulations and debates. This article aims to articulate the idea of how the encounter between global debates and the experience of urban movements and collectives in dealing with the climate agenda is currently expressed, bringing a case study of the community of Vila Arraes, in Recife, which was hit hard by torrential rains in May 2022, and has since strengthened itself to face extreme climate events. The study seeks to identify the main elements incorporated by the local community collective to turn their actions towards tackling climate change and developing the community s resilience and response capacity to extreme events, and how they can provide answers to gaps in global debates. Although there is still a significant gap between the global agenda and the challenges experienced by the communities most affected by climate change, there are opportunities to enrich global debates, especially when it comes to the application of climate adaptation plans, community resilience and loss and damage, based on the experiences of the territory.

Submitted by Edimilson Costa Lucas (costalucas@yahoo.com) on 2015-11-10T13:28:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 EdimilsonCostaLucas_TESE.pdf: 2525096 bytes, checksum: 88b5fc4a39e14115350d9a7fddece121 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Tereza Fernandes Conselmo (maria.conselmo@fgv.br) on 2015-11-11T12:34:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 EdimilsonCostaLucas_TESE.pdf: 2525096 bytes, checksum: 88b5fc4a39e14115350d9a7fddece121 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-11-11T12:38:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 EdimilsonCostaLucas_TESE.pdf: 2525096 bytes, checksum: 88b5fc4a39e14115350d9a7fddece121 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-10-19 / The occurrence of extreme weather events, such as increased temperature, hurricanes, floods and droughts has been increasingly common around of the world. The finance literature has documented efforts directed to the assessment of economic impacts from climate change that can bring significant consequences for the world economy. However, especially in Brazil, a key emerging market, little has been studied mainly with a view to assessing the impacts of climate events in the company level. Thus, this thesis analyzes, in an unprecedented manner, the impact of weather events on the value of companies belonging to two high national interest industries, in the form of two essays. First it analyzes the impact of extreme rainfall on the stock price of the Brazilian food sector. Therefore, it is conducted the research using daily data in share prices of six companies of this industry. From the location to the main area of activity of these companies, they are considered their daily data on extreme rainfall. With the use of hybrid methodology ARMA-GARCH-GPD, it was found that the evaluated companies, the extreme rainfall impacted significantly in more than half of the 198 days of extreme rainfall between 02/28/2005 and 12/30/2014, resulting in average losses daily around 1.97% on the day after the heavy rainfall. In terms of market value, this represents total average loss of around US$ 682.15 million in a single day. Second it evaluates the impact of climate variables and location on the value of companies in the energy sector in Brazil, from data on companies in the Brazilian electricity sector, as well as rainfall, temperature and geographical location of the companies. From the analysis of data in static panel and spatial panel, the results suggest that temperature and precipitation have significant effect on the value of these companies. This study can contribute in the process of structuring and creating a weather derivatives market in Brazil. / A ocorrência de eventos climáticos extremos, tais como aumento da temperatura, furacões, enchentes e secas, tem sido cada vez mais frequente ao redor do mundo. A literatura de finanças tem documentado esforços dirigidos à avaliação de impactos econômicos oriundos das variações climáticas, com consequências significantes na economia mundial. Entretanto, especialmente no Brasil, um dos principais mercados emergentes, pouco tem sido pesquisado, sobretudo com vistas à avaliação dos impactos de eventos climáticos no nível das empresas. Sendo assim, esta tese analisa, de forma inédita, o impacto de eventos climáticos sobre o valor de empresas pertencentes a duas indústrias de elevado interesse nacional, sob a forma de dois ensaios. Em primeiro lugar analisa-se o impacto de chuvas extremas sobre o preço de ações do setor de alimentos brasileiro. Para tanto, é conduzida a pesquisa empregando dados diários do preço de ações de seis empresas dessa indústria. A partir da localização da principal região de atuação dessas empresas, são considerados os respectivos dados diários referentes às chuvas extremas. Com o emprego da metodologia híbrida ARMA-GARCH-GPD, constatou-se que, nas empresas avaliadas, as chuvas extremas impactaram significantemente em mais da metade dos 198 dias de chuvas extremas ocorridos entre 28/02/2005 e 30/12/2014, acarretando perdas médias diárias ao redor de 1,97% no dia posterior a chuva extrema. Em termos de valor de mercado, isso representa perda média total ao redor de US$682,15 mi em um único dia. Em segundo lugar avalia-se o impacto de variáveis climáticas e localização sobre o valor das empresas do setor de energia do Brasil, a partir de dados referentes às empresas do setor elétrico brasileiro, bem como precipitação pluviométrica, temperatura e localização geográfica das empresas. A partir da análise de dados em painel estático e painel espacial, os resultados sugerem que temperatura e precipitação pluviométrica têm efeito significante sobre o valor dessas empresas. O presente estudo pode vir a contribuir no processo de estruturação e criação de um mercado de derivativos climáticos no Brasil.