Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Hawaii, 2000. / "May 2000." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 276-294).

The Irish crash that began in 2008 has been described as one of the most dramatic economic reversals ever experienced by an industrialised country. There is a strong consensus about the economic roots of the crisis: the country experienced a classic asset bubble. Much more difficult to explain however, is how a mature democracy sleep-walked into a crisis that had so much precedent and in retrospect seems to have been so apparent. The policy decisions made in the boom period must shoulder much of the blame, but they were not created in a vacuum. This thesis systematically examines the discourse on the Irish economy from a broad range of commentators in the years prior to the crash, including international and domestic organisations, academics, the newspapers, and politicians. It demonstrates that key mainstream analysts anticipated how the property boom would end on the basis of estimated fundamental house prices and demand levels. This implicitly assumed that these fundamentals would remain strong as the boom abated, and ignored the potential for a market panic. By contrast, the most prescient analysts relied heavily on international precedent, and recognised that property price falls would be closely correlated with the increase observed during the boom. A key dimension of the discourse was therefore how the lessons of financial history were applied or disregarded. The Irish crash that began in 2008 has been described as one of the most dramatic economic reversals ever experienced by an industrialised country. There is a strong consensus about the economic roots of the crisis: the country experienced a classic asset bubble. Much more difficult to explain however, is how a mature democracy sleep-walked into a crisis that had so much precedent and in retrospect seems to have been so apparent. The policy decisions made in the boom period must shoulder much of the blame, but they were not created in a vacuum. This thesis systematically examines the discourse on the Irish economy from a broad range of commentators in the years prior to the crash, including international and domestic organisations, academics, the newspapers, and politicians. It demonstrates that key mainstream analysts anticipated how the property boom would end on the basis of estimated fundamental house prices and demand levels. This implicitly assumed that these fundamentals would remain strong as the boom abated, and ignored the potential for a market panic. By contrast, the most prescient analysts relied heavily on international precedent, and recognised that property price falls would be closely correlated with the increase observed during the boom. A key dimension of the discourse was therefore how the lessons of financial history were applied or disregarded.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.

This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector. / This thesis consists of four essays on finance and the real economy. Chapter 1 studies the effect of banking crises on the composition of investment. It builds a partial equilibrium growth model with a banking sector and two types of investment projects: a safe, low return technology and an innovative, high productivity one. Investments in innovation are risky since they are subject to a liquidity cost which entrepreneurs cover by borrowing from the banking sector. When bank creditors are sufficiently pessimistic about the aggregate liquidity needs of the real sector, they will run on the bank and cause a credit freeze. This leads banks to tighten credit supply after the crisis, which decreases disproportionately investment in innovation and slows down economic growth. An empirical investigation, employing industry-level data on R&D investment around 13 recent banking crises, confirms this hypothesis. Industries that depend more on external finance, in more bank-based economies, invest disproportionately less in R&D following episodes of banking distress. These industries also have a relatively lower share of R&D in total investment, suggesting a shift in the composition of investment after the crisis. Such differential effects across sectors imply that the drop in R&D spending is, at least partially, the result of the contraction in credit supply.Chapter 2 studies the impact of coordination frictions in financial markets on the cost of capital. In the model, a financial intermediary seeks to raise funds to finance a risky capital-intensive project. Capital is owned by a large number of small investors, who observe noisy signals about the project's implementation cost. Employing a global games equilibrium refinement, we characterize a unique threshold equilibrium of the coordination game between investors. We then show that the relationship between the probability of success of the project and the rate of return on capital is non-monotonic. There exists a socially optimal price of capital, which maximizes the probability that the project is profitable. However, fee-maximizing intermediaries will generally set an interest rate that is higher than the socially optimal rate. The model best characterizes project finance investments funded through the bond market.Chapter 3 proposes a laboratory experiment to study the impact of partial deposit insurance schemes on the risk of deposit withdrawals. In the experiment, depositors decide whether to withdraw or leave their money in a bank, triggering a default when too many participants choose to withdraw. When a bank run occurs, the amount of wealth each depositor can recover depends on the number of withdrawals and a deposit insurance fund whose size cannot cover in full all depositors. We consider two treatments: (i) a perfect information case when depositors know the size of the insurance fund and (ii) a heterogeneous information setting when they only observe noisy signals about its size. Our results show that uncertainty about the level of deposit coverage exerts a significant impact on the propensity to run. The frequency of runs is relatively high in both treatments. A majority of subjects follow a threshold strategy consistent with a risk-dominant equilibrium selection. Finally, the last chapter re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that the evidence in support of a finance-led growth is weak once we take into account the dynamics of financial and economic development. We show that, causality patterns depend on whether countries' financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector.

This paper examines bubbles on the JSE All Share Index as well as the critical time of the stock market crash from 2/01/ 2004 – 27/03/2014. The underlying hypothesis define bubbles as extreme and begin as a group of small events which grow in a super exponential form explained by a log periodic power law model (LPPL model). The hypothesis is based on the assumption of investors’ herding behavior, where investors collude by making investment decision correlated with their counterparties. The paper implements a Savitzky Golary Algorithm to detect peaks and calculate the critical time of the crash from the peaks. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is used to determine both the value of stock market price index at the critical time and the increase in the stock market price index over the time before the crash. The remaining parameters of the LPPL model are estimated using a Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. On the empirical results; 68 peaks were detected, and the LPPL model at the critical crash time is estimated 34736.586. Five bubbles are detected; the 15/8/2005 bubble, 28/5/2013 bubble, 23/8/2013 bubble, 5/11/2013, and 1/20/2014.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.

O nível de risco sistêmico no sistema financeiro tem sido objeto de constante preocupação no âmbito de organismos internacionais e autoridades de supervisão. As crises financeiras ocorridas em países da América Latina, do Sudeste Asiático, na Rússia, e em diversos outros, causaram vultosos prejuízos econômicos e custos sociais elevados. As pesquisas referentes ao assunto têm buscado encontrar características comuns que possam sinalizar antecipadamente a proximidade dessas crises. Até o momento, as variáveis utilizadas são de natureza econômica, como reservas internacionais, taxa de câmbio e endividamento externo de curto prazo. Frente a essa constatação, este estudo buscou mensurar o nível de risco sistêmico no setor bancário com a utilização de variáveis contábeis e econômicas. Por meio das variáveis econômicas, relativas às taxas de juros e de câmbio, e das variáveis contábeis, representativas da qualidade do crédito e da liquidez, foi possível construir indicadores de riscos que, juntamente com outros de natureza puramente contábil, foram submetidos à análise de regressão logística, a fim de verificar a significância estatística desses indicadores, bem como a existência de modelos capazes de aferir a probabilidade de determinado sistema bancário ser classificado como suscetível ou não à ocorrência de crise. Os resultados alcançados revelaram a existência de indicadores contábeis e de riscos capazes de discriminar os sistemas bancários dos países componentes da amostra pelo nível de risco. As variáveis contábeis e econômicas mais associadas à ocorrência de crises são relacionadas com a qualidade dos créditos, o volume de resultados e o nível de taxa de juros. Todos os indicadores construídos com base nessas variáveis foram identificados como relevantes no processo de classificação, destacando-se os relacionados à volatilidade da inadimplência, à volatilidade da rentabilidade e à volatilidade da taxa de juros, assim como à média da rentabilidade e à média do risco de crédito. Corroborando essa evidência, as equações compostas pelos indicadores citados apresentaram percentuais de acerto nas classificações superiores a 90%. Adicionalmente à correta separação dos grupos, as classificações dos países foram ponderadas pelo índice de risco sistêmico (IRS), que expressa a probabilidade de pertencer a determinado grupo. O ordenamento dos países pelo grau de risco sistêmico no setor bancário fornece parâmetro de comparação significativo para a tomada de decisão calibrada à exigência de cada situação. Por meio dele, é possível saber qual país apresenta maior ou menor risco sistêmico. Além disso, o acompanhamento dos IRS de um país no tempo expõe as tendências e os pontos críticos, os quais servem de subsídios à atuação das autoridades responsáveis pela estabilidade e funcionamento do sistema, tanto do país em foco como dos países relacionados. / The systemic risk in the financial system has been a constant concern for the international institutions and supervisory authorities. The financial crises occurred in Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia, and other countries, have caused significant economic damages and high social costs. The related researches have tried to find common characteristics able to early warn the proximity of crises. Up to now, the variables that have been used come from economic features, like international reserves, foreign exchange rate, and external debt. Considering the high correlation between the financial system and the economic health, the objective of this study is to measure the systemic risk of the banking system, utilizing accounting and economic variables together. Through the volatilities of economic variables, like interest rate and foreign exchange rate, and accounting variables, representatives of credit quality and liquidity, it was possible to build indicators comprising risk factors. These indicators, added to simple accounting indicators, were submitted to logistic regression analysis, in order to test the statistic significance of them, and to verify the existence of a model to evaluate the probability of any banking system be classified as susceptible, or not, to financial crises. The results exposed the existence of accounting and risk indicators capable to discriminate banking systems according to the risk level. The accounting and economic variables most associated to financial crises are related to credit quality, earnings, and interest rate level. All of indicators composed by these variables showed to be relevant in the classification process, highlighting those related to the volatility of non-performing loans, profitability, and interest rate, as well those representatives of the profitability and credit risk means. Confirming that, the equations resulted in correct classification above 90%. In addition to the correct segregation between groups, the countries classifications were weighted by the systemic risk index (IRS), which expresses the probability to become to each group. The classification of countries by the level of systemic risk provides parameters for comparison of situations and to take actions adjusted to the severity of each one. Through these indexes (IRS), it is possible to recognize which country has more or less systemic risk, and to monitor trends and critical points, which are so important to the authorities responsible for the financial system stability.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.

Orientador: Luiz Koodi Hotta / Dissertação ( mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matematica, Estatistica e Computação Cientifica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-15T13:05:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ribeiro_AndreLuizPrima_M.pdf: 3151695 bytes, checksum: d87230fa6191977394ccb585657639ad (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: O conhecimento das relações de dependência entre as economias são relevantes para tomadas de decisões de Bancos Centrais, investidores e governos. Um tema desafiador é o estudo da existência de contágio entre as economias. Este trabalho considera o Modelo Canônico de Contágio estudado por Pesaran e Pick (2007), o qual diferencia contágio de interdependência. O estimador de mínimos quadrados ordinário para este modelo é viesado devido à existência de variáveis endógenas no modelo. A teoria de variáveis instrumentais é utilizada para diminuir o viés existente nos estimadores de mínimos quadrados ordinários. Este trabalho estuda este modelo na presença de erros heteroscedásticos e utiliza as volatilidades condicionais como variáveis instrumentais. São estudados vários métodos para teste de hipóteses, com ênfase em testes robustos a instrumentos fracos. São abordadas duas diferentes definições de crise e são postuladas como instrumentos válidos as volatilidades condicionais dos índices de desempenho das economias e analisadas por meio de simulações de Monte Carlo a validade destes instrumentos para identificar a existência de contágio. Especificamente, são consideradas as distribuições dos estimadores e a função poder dos testes propostos para diferentes tamanhos de amostras, bem como, estudadas as aproximações das distribuições assintóticas dos estimadores e estatísticas dos testes. Finalmente, o modelo canônico de contágio é utilizado na análise dos dados de retorno dos principais índices acionários de Argentina, Brasil, México e EUA, assim como para alguns países asiáticos / Abstract: The understanding of the dependence among the economies are relevant to policy makers, Central Banks and investors in the decision making process. An important issue is the study of the existence of contagion among the economies. This work consider the Canonical Model of Contagion of Pesaran and Pick (2007), which diferentiates contagion of interdependence. The ordinary least squares estimator for this model is biased because there are endogenous variables in the model. Instrumental variable are used in order to decrease the bias of the ordinary least squares estimators. The model is extended to the case of heteroskedastic errors, feature usually found in financial data. Two definitions of crises are applied and we postulate the conditional volatility of the performance indexes as a instrumental variable. We analyze the validity of this instruments by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo simulations are used to analyst the distributions of the estimators and the power functions of the tests proposed. Finally, the canonical model of contagion is used to analyst the data of the most important performance indexes of Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and USA, as well the performance indexes of seven Asiatic countries / Mestrado / Estatistica / Mestre em Estatística

Orientador: Simone Silva de Deos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-19T23:47:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rosa_EvertonSottoTibirica_M.pdf: 3774538 bytes, checksum: 6f8ef3a3c31e107e4d361f1f98ba0372 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: A crise iniciada nos EUA, em 2007, pode ser entendida como resultado da limitação e incapacidade de supervisão das autoridades do governo associadas à evolução de práticas e inovações inerentes à dinâmica do sistema financeiro, sobretudo por conta dos processos de desregulamentação e liberalização financeiras, em curso nas últimas décadas. Porém, a própria reversão e a lenta recuperação da economia americana têm destacado outros aspectos, entre eles, o de que as famílias estavam diretamente envolvidas na geração da fragilidade financeira que antecedeu a crise. O endividamento destes agentes é um dos elementos mais nítidos deste processo, contudo, tem recebido interpretações parciais e, por vezes, inconsistentes do ponto de vista agregado e das variáveis de fluxo e estoque. Neste ponto, a própria alavancagem do consumo poderia ser compreendida a partir de um processo mais amplo, tendo em vista a estrutura de passivos e ativos das famílias e a complexidade das decisões envolvidas. Assim, pode-se dizer que algumas das preocupações de Minsky concretizaram-se, entre elas, a de que as famílias, enquanto unidades econômicas caracterizadas por seus portfólios, também podem assumir posições financeiras crescentemente especulativas (expressas na relação entre renda e despesas financeiras, ou na relação ativo-passivo) e contribuir para a geração de fragilidade no sistema. Quando isso ocorre, num contexto de largo aprofundamento das finanças na economia, a ?ação financeira das famílias? não pode ser desconsiderada pela teoria, nem sua participação na demanda reduzida ao consumo corrente, ou ao consumo de ?bens-salário? financiado por crédito de curto prazo, sem a geração de maior impacto no sistema. Nesta dissertação defende-se que a fragilidade financeira das famílias contém uma importante dimensão patrimonial, evidenciada a partir da aquisição de ativos e de um longo processo de endividamento - o qual assumiu maior intensidade no ciclo de liquidez recente. Cabe ressaltar que, a gravidade da crise estaria, justamente, no fato de que famílias dos mais diferentes perfis de renda e riqueza, a partir da aquisição e financiamento de imóveis, passaram a apresentar posturas financeiras cada vez mais dependentes da dinâmica de preços dos ativos, sobretudo com a intensificação do endividamento frente à valorização imobiliária. Estes aspectos, portanto, justificariam a própria revisão do papel macroeconômico das famílias / Abstract: The financial crisis that began in 2007, in the U.S., can be understood as a result of restrictions and inability of the supervision and regulation of the State linked to the evolution of practices and financial innovation inherent to financial system operation, mainly due to the processes of financial deregulation and liberalization ongoing for decades. However, the reversion and sluggish recuperation of American economy have highlighted other aspects, among then, that families were directly involved in the creation of the financial fragility that preceded the crisis. The debt of these agents is one of the most visible elements of this process; nevertheless, has received restricted and, sometimes, inconsistent interpretations in terms of the aggregated and stock and flow variables. At this point, the leveraged consumption could be understood from a more sophisticated process in view of the structure of liabilities and assets of families and the complex nature of decisions involved. Thus, one can state that some of Minsky's concerns were realized, among them, that households, as economics units characterized by their portfolios, can also assume increasingly speculative financial positions (expressed in the relation between income and financial expenditure, or asset-liability ratio) and contribute to the generation of fragility in the system. When this happen in a context of large and pervasive spreading of the financial dimension in the economy, ?the family's financial action? can not be ignored by the theory, or its participation in the demand be reduced to everyday consumption, or consumption of ?wage goods? financed by short-term credit, without greater impact on the system. This thesis is defended that the financial fragility of households has a significant dimension sheet, which can be seen by the acquisition of assets and the long process of composition of the ineptness - which has gained more intensity in the recent liquidity cycle. Moreover, the severity of the crisis is precisely in the fact that families from the most distinct income and wealth levels, through acquisition and finance of houses, has showed financing postures even more dependent to the price's asset volatility, over all, with the increase of the accumulation of debts through the process of inflation these assets. Thus, these aspects allow the review of the macroeconomic role of the families / Mestrado / Ciências Economicas / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas