As diversas crises financeiras e econômicas ocorridas nas últimas décadas geraram uma demanda pelo estudo da propagação destes efeitos entre as economias. Neste sentido este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o efeito contágio (Shift Contagion) tal como definido em Rigobon (2002) do mercado financeiro do Brasil para quatro países para o período de 2011 a 2016, que inclui a recente crise econômica no Brasil. Tais países são Argentina, Colômbia, Chile, e Peru. Para tal, utilizou-se metodologia de cópulas paramétricas estáticas. Com base nos resultados obtidos, não é possível identificar indícios da ocorrência de contágio do mercado financeiro brasileiro para os mercados financeiros dos países analisados no período do estudo. / Different financial and economic crises that occurred in the last decades have generated a demand of studies on propagation of their effects between economies. In this sense, this work has the goal to study the contagion effect (shift contagion), as defined by Rigobon (2002), from the Brazilian financial market to four countries in the period from 2011 to 2016 that includes the recent Brazilian economic crisis. These countries are Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru. For this purpose, the methodology of parametric static copulas is used. Accordingly with the results, it is not possible to identify evidences of the contagion effect from the Brazilian financial market to the analyzed countries.

O intento do trabalho é verificar se empresas com ações negociadas na Bovespa enfrentam restrição ao crédito. A análise de painel com base em dados de balanço patrimonial para o período de 2001 a 2005 revelou que, diferentemente do que se esperava, empresas de grande porte apresentam maior dependência dos fluxos de caixa para efetivar seus investimentos. Todavia, há argumentos teóricos na literatura que fundamentam esses resultados, bem como outras evidências empíricas semelhantes. / The paper focuses on evaluating whether Brazilian listed firms have faced financial constraints. Relying on data over the period 2001-2005, a panel data analysis was carried out, but the evidence raised turned out differently from the initially expected: large firms are more sensitive to cash flows to undertake their investment than smaller ones. Nonetheless, the recent literature provides theoretical rationale to deal with those findings as well as empirical evidence consistent with them.

A relação entre a BOVESPA e o mercado financeiro globalizado é o eixo central desse trabalho. A forma pela qual uma instituição centenária, surgida em país periférico, gradativamente se atrela ao movimento do grande capital tornando-se um dos players globais, é a sua especificidade. O desdobramento dessa problemática nuclear se dá em três níveis. Primeiro, pela busca de conexões entre as crises do capitalismo em distintas temporalidades, a Crise de 1929 e as crises dos anos 1990, cujo elo se estabelece na busca de um denominador comum, detectado no estado de expectativa discutido por Keynes, que remete à natureza do capitalismo financeirista na sua dimensão fictícia descoberto por Marx. O segundo nível se faz por via da caracterização da estrutura econômica, alicerçada no capitalismo da era da globalização, em que a dimensão financeira se torna dominante e na qual as crises de sobreacumulação transformam-se em crises de acumulação por despossessão, forma perversa de desvalorização e revalorização de ativos financeiros, por via da reciclagem. O terceiro nível envolve a análise da trajetória da Bolsa de valores de São Paulo em seu percurso centenário que, nos anos 1990, a transforma em instituição compatível com suas congêneres internacionais, ocupando o primeiro lugar disparado entre as bolsas brasileiras e o primeiro na América Latina. O enlace entre micro e macro história, o diálogo permanente entre as determinações mais gerais e as experiências locais dão a tônica metodológica ao estudo. / The relation between the São Paulo Stock Exchange and the financial market in the globalization scenario is the central axle of the present work. The way in which a centennial institution is blossomed in a peripheral country like Brazil and gradually joins the movement of the great capital to ultimately become one of the international players, is its specificity. The unfolding of such a nuclear problematic occurs in three levels. At the first level, there is a quest for the connections among the crises of capitalism which have erupted in distinct temporalities. For instance, the 1929 crisis and the 1990s crises, whose link is established along the search for a common denominator, detected in the Keynesian concept of expectation, which sends to the nature of the financial capitalism in its fictitious dimension uncovered by Marx. The second level happens through the characterization of an economic structure whose foundation was laid in the Capitalism of Globalization Era where the financial dimension becomes dominant, the over-accumulation crises is changed into accumulation crises for dispossession, a perverse form of depreciation and re-valorization of financial assets through recycling. The third level is a comprehensive analysis of the São Paulo Stock Exchange in its centenarian course which by the 1990s becomes not only a financial institution compatible with the international ones, but also the most important stock trading center in Brazil, and the largest one in Latin America. The unique encounter between micro and macro history and the permanent dialogue between most general events and local experiences give to the present study a methodological tone.

A realização de previsões de volatilidade é uma atividade de suma importância para empresas e agentes econômicos, entretanto utilizar-se de apenas um modelo para obtê-las pode não ser suficiente para incorporar todo o conhecimento associado ao ambiente de previsões. As técnicas de combinação de previsões podem incorporar todo o conhecimento associado ao ambiente de previsão. As técnicas de combinação têm como objetivo principal incorporar vários modelos com a finalidade de reduzir as medidas de erro de previsão. Este trabalho apresenta uma comparação da acurácia dos modelos individuais e das técnicas de combinação. Os modelos individuais incluídos nas técnicas de combinação são os modelos da família GARCH, o modelo de Alisamento Exponencial e o de Volatilidade Estocástica. Já as técnicas de combinação escolhidas foram a técnica de combinação por média aritmética, a técnica de combinação de pesos fixos proposta por Granger e Ramanathan (1984), a técnica de combinação com pesos móvel de Terui e Djik (2002). / The realization of forecasts of volatility is an activity of extreme importance for companies and economy agents, however to utilize only one model to obtain them could be insuficient to incorporate all the knowledge associated to the ambient of previsions. The technics of combination of forecasts have as its main objective to incorporate various models with the finality to reduce the measures of error of prediction. This work presents a comparision of the acuracy of the individual models and of the combination technics. The individual models included on the technics of combination are the models of the family GARCH, the model of Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Thus the technics of combination chosen were the technic of combination by arithmetic average, the technic of fixed weights proposed by Granger and Ramanathan (1984), the technic of combination of movable weights of Terui e Djik (2002).

The aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of ECB's communication on financial market co- movements between Italy, Spain, Germany and France using MGARCH family of models. Author addresses partially the potential problem of endogeneity of central bank communication by using Composite indicator of systemic stress and excess liquidity. The author estimates the impact of ECB's communication on correlations of government bond yield changes using daily data from 2008 to 2014. For this purpose author employs bivariate diagonal BEKK(1,1) and bivariate scalar BEKK(1,1) with surprises of macroeconomic announcements under control. The results are consistent and robust for all models, the results suggest that communication does not have statistically significant effect on financial market correlations in the Euro area. Furthermore, author defines delta functions which describe and quantify the immediate and full effect of explanatory variables on conditional correlations in bivariate diagonal BEKK(1,1) and bivariate scalar BEKK(1,1). To the best of author's knowledge this thesis is the only one in the literature which examines this effect of ECB's communication by MGARCH models. Keywords: Financial markets, central bank communication, correlation, MGARCH, BEKK Author's e-mail: milankucera1@seznam.cz...

A relação entre a BOVESPA e o mercado financeiro globalizado é o eixo central desse trabalho. A forma pela qual uma instituição centenária, surgida em país periférico, gradativamente se atrela ao movimento do grande capital tornando-se um dos players globais, é a sua especificidade. O desdobramento dessa problemática nuclear se dá em três níveis. Primeiro, pela busca de conexões entre as crises do capitalismo em distintas temporalidades, a Crise de 1929 e as crises dos anos 1990, cujo elo se estabelece na busca de um denominador comum, detectado no estado de expectativa discutido por Keynes, que remete à natureza do capitalismo financeirista na sua dimensão fictícia descoberto por Marx. O segundo nível se faz por via da caracterização da estrutura econômica, alicerçada no capitalismo da era da globalização, em que a dimensão financeira se torna dominante e na qual as crises de sobreacumulação transformam-se em crises de acumulação por despossessão, forma perversa de desvalorização e revalorização de ativos financeiros, por via da reciclagem. O terceiro nível envolve a análise da trajetória da Bolsa de valores de São Paulo em seu percurso centenário que, nos anos 1990, a transforma em instituição compatível com suas congêneres internacionais, ocupando o primeiro lugar disparado entre as bolsas brasileiras e o primeiro na América Latina. O enlace entre micro e macro história, o diálogo permanente entre as determinações mais gerais e as experiências locais dão a tônica metodológica ao estudo. / The relation between the São Paulo Stock Exchange and the financial market in the globalization scenario is the central axle of the present work. The way in which a centennial institution is blossomed in a peripheral country like Brazil and gradually joins the movement of the great capital to ultimately become one of the international players, is its specificity. The unfolding of such a nuclear problematic occurs in three levels. At the first level, there is a quest for the connections among the crises of capitalism which have erupted in distinct temporalities. For instance, the 1929 crisis and the 1990s crises, whose link is established along the search for a common denominator, detected in the Keynesian concept of expectation, which sends to the nature of the financial capitalism in its fictitious dimension uncovered by Marx. The second level happens through the characterization of an economic structure whose foundation was laid in the Capitalism of Globalization Era where the financial dimension becomes dominant, the over-accumulation crises is changed into accumulation crises for dispossession, a perverse form of depreciation and re-valorization of financial assets through recycling. The third level is a comprehensive analysis of the São Paulo Stock Exchange in its centenarian course which by the 1990s becomes not only a financial institution compatible with the international ones, but also the most important stock trading center in Brazil, and the largest one in Latin America. The unique encounter between micro and macro history and the permanent dialogue between most general events and local experiences give to the present study a methodological tone.

Traditional approaches to predicting financial market dynamics tend to be linear and stationary, whereas financial time series data is increasingly nonlinear and non-stationary. Lately, advances in dynamical systems theory have enabled the extraction of complex dynamics from time series data. These developments include theory of time delay embedding and phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems from a scalar time series. In this thesis, a time delay embedding approach for predicting intraday stock or stock index movement is developed. The approach combines methods of nonlinear time series analysis with those of causality testing, theory of dynamical systems and machine learning (artificial neural networks). The approach is then applied to the Standard and Poors Index, and the results from our method are compared to traditional methods applied to the same data set.

Cette thèse porte sur la gestion des risques associés aux marchés financiers au sein des grandes organisations financières européennes. A partir d’un travail ethnographique approfondi et d’entretiens, elle vise à améliorer la compréhension de la gestion des risques de marchés financiers dans les banques et les compagnies d'assurance de la zone euro. Cette recherche montre que les gestionnaires de risque construisent leur connaissance et leur évaluation des risques avec un but premier : celui de satisfaire les exigences de d’acteurs extérieurs à l’organisation davantage que de couvrir les risques générés par les activités de celle-ci. Plusieurs acteurs ont en effet la possibilité de mettre en danger la santé de l’organisation, par exemple les régulateurs ou les actionnaires et les contreparties. Les gestionnaires de risque se préoccupent surtout de l’évaluation par le régulateur. Dans la limite de ce que leur permettent les possibilités de calcul et la comptabilité, ils essayent de répondre au mieux aux pressions de ces acteurs. Par une communication qui reflète ce qu’ils anticipent des souhaits des acteurs externes, les gestionnaires de risque essayent d’éviter des sanctions de la part de ces derniers. / Risks taken in the financial sector have been in the public eye since the financial crisis of 2008. This thesis explores the internal workings of the large organisations that take financial market risks, banks and insurance companies. It follows their risk managers, analysing their work and output. The thesis is based on an ethnography with 84 semi-structured interviews and two participant observations in risk management. EU regulation and literature on financial risk state that risk managers control risk taking of their organisations. This thesis shows that is not the case. The risk managers do not have the resources to make the control stick. They focus on another aspect, namely on keeping the organisation alive. The risk managers prevent negative consequences from happening to their organisation by handling the communications to resourceful outsiders. Regulators, shareholders and counterparties all have the power to bring down a financial organisation. The risk managers manage communications about the state of the organisation to these outsiders. With the help of their risk assessments, they want to avoid the negative effects an outsider could bring. Accounting rules and mathematical standards restrict the malleability of the risks, depending on enforcement of powerfull outsiders. The risk managers juggle the different limits to show an organisation in good health.

Original sin in economy literature is defined as the inability of countries to borrow in domestic currency from abroad (even from local markets with long maturities and fixed-rate). There are two dimensions of the problem, international and domestic. In this thesis, some of theories on determinants of international original sin phenomenon are investigated. The results suggest that absolute size of the economy is a significant determinant of the international original sin. Financial and economic development is also found to be necessary in order to redeem from the original sin problem. Existence of strong policies and institutions, monetary credibility, and flexible exchange rate regime are found as other significant factors in terms of explaining the phenomenon. Countries that faces credit market imperfections and poor contract enforcement more prone to original sin problem.

The aim of this thesis is to analyze the probable effects of integration with European stock markets on stock market in Turkey as an acceding country. The required changes in Turkey&rsquo / s legal framework and economic effects on Turkish stock market have been examined by reference to the current legal framework of the EU and the measures that can be defined as reform within the dynamic integration process of the EU. It is determined that adopting the legal framework of the EU will have numerous effects on all the parties involved in the stock market, namely / stock exchange, financial intermediaries, firms and investors, leading to a pro-competitive environment, the end result of which is likely to be an increase in the share of the stock market in the national economy and a positive growth effect for the economy as a whole.