The following study assesses whether an economic relationship exists between the money supply (i.e. M2), interest rates, and the exchange rate and the retail food price level in the United States. Data for the M2 classification of the United States money supply, the Effective Federals Funds (interest) Rate, and the United States Trade Weighted Exchange Index: Major Currencies for the period from January 1974 through December 2007 are evaluated as they relate to the United States Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers: Food for the same period. The statistical analysis involves an examination of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions of each variable, a test for the presence of stationarity in each variable(Augmented Dickey-Fuller test), Johansen’s test for co-integrating equations of the variables considered, Granger’s test for causality, and finally an estimation of regression models of United States retail food prices as a function of the money supply, interest rates, and exchange rates. Results indicate that a statistically significant relationship exists among the variables tested. A causal relationship exists between the Federal Funds Rate and the money supply, the money supply and the retail level of food prices, and also between the exchange rate and the retail level of food prices. The implications of the results are assessed through the lens of agricultural producers and processors, investors, lenders, consumers, and monetary and agricultural policymakers. Keywords: retail food prices, money supply, Federal Funds Rate, exchange rate, augmented Dickey-Fuller, Johansen’s test for co-integration, Granger causality

<p>  </p> <p>Cattle derived food, like beef and dairy, have long been a staple of our human diets and continue to be prominent in our days. This prominence and their relevance naturally extend to our economies. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service (2022), cattle production is the most important agricultural industry in the US representing about 17% of the $391 billion total cash receipts for agricultural commodities in 2021.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Economists have looked into cattle derived products from a wide array of perspectives focusing on the product itself, for example beef, but also in the forces of supply and demand that at times are external to product attributes. The effect of supply and demand shocks on agricultural markets have been heavily considered in the literature (Thomsen and McKenzie, 2001; McKenzie and Thomsen, 2001; Lusk and Schroeder, 2002, Piggott and Marsh, 2004). Yet another important aspect of agricultural markets is price determination and the body of literature in this area is ample (Tomek & Robinson, 2003). Recent phenomena in the world, like the availability of information, good or bad, in the most current, voluminous and accessible way that we have ever seen, could be a new force in price determination of agricultural products. My research contributes to such strains of literature by investigating perceptions and willingness to pay for beef attributes, market shocks in beef markets, and the role of online media in dairy prices.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Beef attributes, and their relative valuation by consumers, have been studied to assist in understanding consumer demand for beef. Given the relevance of such attributes in consumer’s mind, researchers have sought to study how to profitably provide those beef attributes demanded by consumers. Addressing consumer demands for tenderness, an important attribute (Schroeder and Mark, 2000), aging beef has been proved to be a technology that improves flavor, tenderness and juiciness (Kim, Kemp & Samuelson, 2016). By using aging processes, the same cattle carcass can generate more highly valued beef products. I study the willingness to pay for aging and USDA grade in beef, to understand valuation of attributes by consumers with various demographics. </p> <p><br></p> <p>In beef markets, the heterogeneity of beef cuts in their usage, pricing and distribution channels is crucial. Supply and demand shocks can affect individual cuts in different ways (Ortez et al, 2022). With some beef cuts relying heavily on restaurant sales more than others, this offers a good opportunity to introduce a new concept in beef market analysis, namely the price relationship amongst beef cuts and its response to different market shocks. The traditional discussion around spreads in meat focus on differences in price at separate steps in the supply chain, namely farm, wholesale and retail. However, little attention has been given to the relative differences in prices of specific cuts of beef.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The potential influence of online media chatter in its sentiment and volume has largely been under appreciated in the Agricultural Economics literature. A predecessor in this area is Tonsor and Olynk (2011) who first established a connection between news activity and economic fundamentals in agriculture. The advent of the internet may have the ability to decrease information asymmetry and bridge the information gap between consumers, producers and market products. Online media listening allows for data collection efficiently and in real time (Widmar, 2019) and it may be a relevant aspect in the decision making of agricultural and food industries. Moved by this endeavor, I seek to understand if potential relationships between online media chatter sentiment and volume with futures prices in dairy products exist.</p> <p>  </p>

Staple food prices rose sharply in 2007/2008, dropped slightly after July 2008, and rose again in 2010/2011. Since 2008, food prices have remained high, indicating a structural upward adjustment in food prices amidst excessive price volatility. The 2008 food price increases led to considerable media coverage and alarm among governments who implemented a variety of responses to protect their populations from food insecurity. At the start of the high food price crisis in May 2008, the African Union and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU/NEPAD) invited 16 African countries to a workshop in South Africa. The aim of the workshop was to assist selected African countries identify and formulate appropriate plans to mitigate food insecurity and manage rising food prices. This study set out to investigate whether the strategies implemented by national governments at the start of the crisis mitigated high food prices through improved risk management strategies in five African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda) and evaluated these strategies to see if they were included in the national agriculture and food security investment plans. To achieve this, the study set out to explore four sub-problems, namely: What was the impact of high food prices on populations in the five selected countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda)? How did the five countries respond to the 2008 food price crisis with regard to providing for immediate needs and protecting vulnerable groups from food insecurity? How many early actions were included in country compacts and agriculture and food investment programmes? Do country investment plans include household risk management programmes that will protect vulnerable groups against high food prices in future? The involvement of the researcher in the AU/NEPAD workshop and his subsequent engagement with national government representatives provided a unique opportunity to analyse the iterative process of Country Investment Plan (CIP) development. This innovative and largely qualitative study integrated comparative, content and thematic analysis approaches, using the four elements of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme’s (CAADP) Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) to analyse the national plans. The study drew on available data from a wide variety of national, regional and international documents. Additional data were collected through a survey questionnaire completed by CAADP country focal persons. Data sourced from documents included Food Price Indices, country policy responses to high food prices, poverty and malnutrition indicators and the types of risk management strategies designed under CAADP. The study found that food prices increased across all five countries between 2007 and 2008, although the effects of the increases varied, being influenced by, among other factors, the proportion of national stocks purchased on the international market (i.e. net importers of staple crops), the availability of substitute staples on the domestic market and the magnitude of the difference between international and domestic market prices. The 2008 food price increases forced populations to spend a higher proportion of their income on food and eroded their purchasing power, impacting on the food security of these populations. Poor people adopted eroding consumption strategies that increased food insecurity. The impact of the high food prices on populations was determined by whether they were net food buyers or producers, the mix of staple commodities in their food basket and the proportion of income spent on food. As poor net food importing countries, imported staple foods became too costly, except in Uganda - a net exporter of food staples consumed in the surrounding countries. High food prices also provoked social unrest in Ethiopia and exacerbated political and economic instability in Kenya. Countries’ early responses to the food price crisis were varied and included responses that can be classified into three main categories, namely: Trade-oriented responses protected domestic stocks, reduced tariffs, restricted exports to reduce prices for consumers or increased domestic supply Consumer-oriented responses provided direct support to consumers and vulnerable groups in the form of, among others, food subsidies, social safety nets, tax reductions and price controls Producer-oriented responses provided incentives for farmers to increase production - using measures such as input subsidies and producer price support. Most responses were aimed at managing prices, suggesting that governments tried to protect citizens from price increases and buffer consumption reduction. Safety net programmes mitigated risks through the provision of food for immediate consumption. As a result, malnutrition levels unexpectedly decreased or remained static in these five countries, despite expectations and media claims that the number of hungry people would increase significantly. The early actions from the food price workshop plans were generally systematically translated into long-term programmes in the Compacts and Country Investment Plans. In Ethiopia, seven of eight early action plans were translated into the CIP, Kenya included three of eight, Malawi’s CIP included four of ten, and Rwanda included six of its ten early actions in their CIP programme, while Uganda included only six of thirteen early actions in their CIP. The study found that CIPs included risk management strategies, but these focused predominantly on improving early warning systems and crisis prevention. The risk management options largely included options for improving crisis prevention, followed by improving emergency responses and strengthening risk management policies and institutions. Only Kenya’s CIP included more risk management options for improving emergency responses – four of six risk management programmes. Despite expectations that programmes developed under CAADP FAFS would include all FAFS elements, CIPs lacked programmes to improve dietary quality. Only Rwanda’s CIP included nutrition programmes - three of six programmes in their CIP. The study concluded that while the proposed risk management strategies could mitigate risks associated with high food prices and offer some buffer for populations from food insecurity, the programmes are not comprehensive. The plans were generally weak regarding improving dietary quality through diversification of food consumption and production. Although the CIPs included risk management strategies, these strategies would not address risks in a comprehensive manner. More effective and coherent actions are still required to help the most food insecure populations cope with increasing high food prices and future price shocks; help developing country farmers respond to the opportunities offered by the rising demand for their products; and bring more stability in prices. The early food price response workshop seems to have influenced the development of programmes in the CAADP compact and CIPs, despite the fact that the workshop did not intend to assist countries with the development of comprehensive national investment plans. The large funding gaps in the CIPs constrain implementation of essential mitigation and development strategies and could leave countries vulnerable to the negative impacts of higher prices for consumers and threaten future household food security. The study recommends that countries invest in agriculture-led growth to boost domestic production and strengthen institutional capacities regarding national food stock reserves to reduce their dependency on imports and ensure food insecurity. National monitoring and evaluation systems need to be strengthened to evaluate and monitor the implementation of CIPs and to warn about future high food prices. Empirical estimation of the impact of price increases on households across all CAADP countries is needed to understand and monitor the impact of price changes and interventions. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

Healthy dietary changes would be beneficial for society, as the economic burden of diet-related diseases is massive, and for the individual, who would reduce their risk of ill health. However, it is not easy to change dietary habits. Therefore, the aim of this thesis was to better understand dietary change, focusing on the barriers to and facilitators of healthy dietary change by i) examining changes in food choices when dietary change is imposed by a medical diagnosis, ii) examining experiences related to dietary change and its sustainability after participation in a study where healthy dietary changes were required, and iii) examining diet cost in relation to healthiness of the diet. Methods Eighty children aged 13 who were diagnosed with celiac disease (CD) by a screening study reported their food intake in a food frequency questionnaire before and 1,5 years after commencing a gluten-free diet. Changes in food intake and the healthiness of the diet were examined, controlling for societal changes through the use of an age- and sex-matched control group. Diet healthiness was assessed using the National Food Administration’s (NFA) food index and the Diet Quality Index-Swedish Nutritional Recommendations. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 14 individuals who participated in an intervention study five years earlier where they had been randomly selected to adhere to a Mediterranean-like diet for three months. Analyses of the transcribed interviews focused on their experiences of barriers to and facilitators of dietary change and its sustainability. The costs related to healthy diets were examined by comparing consumer food prices with dietary intake data collected in two separate studies. The first study collected dietary intake data through a diet history interview with participants who had been randomized to either a Mediterranean-like diet or to continue their normal diet. The second study collected dietary intake data from 4-, 8-, and 11-year-old children by means of food diaries and was conducted by the NFA. Diet healthiness was assessed using the Healthy Eating Index 2005. Results The screened CD group made relatively few changes to their diets. They decreased their intake of certain gluten-containing products, including pizza, chicken nuggets, fish sticks, and pastries. There were no changes in the healthiness of their diet. The narratives of the individuals changing their diets showed that social relationships were the main barrier to sustainability. Social relationships within the household were especially troublesome, and various coping strategies were required on an everyday basis. Dietary change also increased the burden of food work (e.g., planning, shopping, cooking), which was another major barrier to dietary change. Comparisons between consumer costs of healthy and less healthy diets showed that those consuming the healthier diets also had consumed more expensive diets. Conclusion More barriers to healthy dietary changes were found than facilitators of these transitions. For instance, the impact of social relationships on sustainability of dietary change was found to be high, indicating the importance of participation of other household members when dietary changes are implemented. The higher cost of the healthier diets may be another barrier for healthy dietary changes, especially for those with limited resources. Even though it is possible to eat healthily at a lower cost, such a diet would likely require both cooking skills and time, thus making the task more difficult. However, the finding that children diagnosed with CD only made minor changes in their consumption of, for instance, bread and pasta, indicates that one way of increasing the healthiness of a diet is to substitute healthier alternatives within the same food group for less healthy food items.

No description available.

A persistência e gravidade dos problemas sociais ao longo da história e a escassez dos recursos públicos disponíveis para solucionar tais problemas, têm sido motivo de grande preocupação para economistas e governos. Dentre os problemas sociais que afligem a humanidade, nada se compara à escassez de alimentos; em especial à fome ainda presente em muitos países e até mesmo em algumas regiões brasileiras. A história mostra que a modernização dos meios de produção de alimentos não é capaz de baratear o preço da alimentação, notadamente o da alimentação básica, obrigando o trabalhador, principalmente aquele que ganha menor renda, a comprometer mensalmente considerável parte desse ganho na aquisição de alimentos básicos. A essa quantidade mínima de alimentos básicos denomina-se Cesta Básica daí sua importância na renda do trabalhador. O objetivo deste trabalho é comparar o comportamento do preço mensal da cesta básica e da renda do trabalhador que ganha um salário mínimo nominal no município de Imperatriz MA, em São Luís MA e nas capitais que compõem a região 2 (Norte/Nordeste) definida pelo Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Socioeconômicos, no período de setembro de 2009 a agosto de 2012. A pesquisa foi um trabalho de campo, documental, qualitativa e quantitativa descritiva e relacionou as variáveis cesta básica e renda do trabalhador que ganha um salário mínimo nominal pelo cálculo da quantidade de horas de trabalho despendidas mensalmente para adquirir a cesta. A pesquisa concluiu que a variação na renda do trabalhador que ganha um salário mínimo não foi suficiente para fazer frente às variações das cestas básicas em todas as localidades mencionadas, o que aponta para a necessidade de definição e implementação de políticas públicas que incentivem a produção local de alimentos de qualidade e em quantidades suficientes, além de promoverem o acesso do trabalhador a esses alimentos. / The persistence and the serious social problems along the time and the need of the public resources ready to solve such problems have been the reason of deep concern for the economists and the governments. Among social problems that worry the mankind, nothing is compared to the need of food; specially the hunger which is still present in several countries. Even in some Brazilian regions. History shows that the modernization of the means of food production is not able to lower the price of food, were unable to make the price of food cheaper. The basic one is really more important for those workers who earns the least amount. They have to involve the lions share for the basic food. This small quantity of food is called the Basic Basket. The objective of this study is to compare the behavior of the monthly price of basic food and income worker who earns a nominal minimum wage in the city of Empress - MA in São Luís - MA and in capitals that make up the region 2 (North / Northeast) defined by the Departamento Intersindical de Estatística e Estudos Socioeconômicos, from September 2009 to August 2012. The research is a documentary, qualitative and quantitative descriptive field which related the changeable baskets and the workers salary who earns a nominal minimum wage for the calculation of the number of business hours spent monthly to get the basket. The research concluded that the variation in income worker who earns minimum wage was not enough to cope with the variations of baskets in all localities mentioned, which points out to the need for defining and implementing public policies that encourage local production food quality and in sufficient quantities, and promote worker access to these foods.

(Ph. D. (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / The issues regarding the determinants of agricultural production and food supply are currently of great interest in developing countries. This, in turn, has led to the undertaking of this study focusing on the effectiveness of incentives that can be offered within the agricultural sector to boost production. The study aims to model the supply response of key agricultural commodities to price incentives, price risk and non-price incentives. Special focus is given to four major grain crops, namely; maize, wheat, sorghum and barley, which are of strategic interest to South Africa. The emphasis of the study is on two significant aspects of agricultural supply response: First, an attempt is made to determine the level of price risk among the selected grain crops using two distinct price risk measures. Second, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag-Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) approach to cointegration is used to estimate the responsiveness of grain producers to price risk, price incentives and non-price incentives. Annual historical time series data of 49 observations for the period 1970 to 2018 is used in the analysis. Data is tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Dickey-Fuller Generalised Least Square (DF-GLS) detrending test. The empirical results reveal that grain supply in South Africa is reasonably responsive to price incentives. However, the degree of responsiveness is low and varies among different crops. Depending on the crop, the results show that own price supply elasticities range from about 0.24 to 0.75. Supply elasticities for nonprice factors are much higher, indicating that non-price incentives (i.e. rainfall, fertiliser, technology) are better production drivers than price incentives in South Africa. Thus, instead of regarding price mechanisms as being the only tools to promote agricultural production, it is concluded that further expansion of irrigation facilities and encouraging the adoption of drought-resistant varieties will stimulate grain production. The results underscore the relevance of price risk in determining production output and show that greater price risk leads to reduced production levels, particularly for maize and barley. In light of such evidence, any policy initiatives undertaken to stabilise the grain industry should look into proposing packages (i.e., forward contracts, futures contracts, contract farming) that reduce the negative impacts of price volatility in grain commodity markets

In this dissertation I analyze patterns of maternal-infant health in developing contexts. My first chapter uses child hemoglobin as a bio-marker for maternal malnutrition in Senegal during the 2008 food price crisis. In early 2008, world rice prices skyrocketed, causing people around the world to plunge into poverty. Senegal, in particular, depends heavily on imported foodstuffs. I find that the crisis had a large, negative impact on child anemia in urban Senegal, most likely reflecting a deterioration of maternal nutrition caused by rising food prices. In the second and third chapters, we introduce a novel indicator of maternal-infant health: childhood sex ratios. Because infant females have lower rates of mortality than infant males, the sex ratio of the surviving population reflects the level of infant mortality. Childhood sex ratios are widely available from census data, meaning we can use them to shed new light on historical populations who lack traditional sources of data on infant mortality, like birth and death records. We apply this new method to the 19th-century US, where the lack of vital statistics has left uncertainty over even approximate levels of infant mortality. We find that the level of infant mortality in the pre-industrial US was much lower than previously thought, but that racial health disparities were much greater.

<p dir="ltr">Retail prices for eggs surged during the period from early 2022 to mid-2023 in the U.S. Eggs are important to a wide range of people because of their nutritional benefits and cost relative to other protein sources. Thus, rapidly increasing egg prices can cause risks to numerous people. Using social media listening data, we analyzed the relationship between egg prices and online and social media attention and the relationship between egg prices and online and social media sentiment. Our findings suggest that egg prices are associated with the sentiment of the public as expressed in online media. However, the relationship between egg prices and online and social media attention is complex when studying the timing of increased concern with the timing of online news media coverage. Importantly, by leveraging a method of regression discontinuity in time, we show that online and social media conversations about eggs and egg prices tend to increase after the rapid rise in online news coverage. Similarly, online and social media conversations about eggs and egg prices tend to decrease after the rapid rise in online news coverage. This research also provided an example of how a total number of statements and sentiment score of social media listening data can be utilized to capture people’s attention levels, overall sentiment, and how they change over time.</p>

Aufbauend auf dem agrarökonomischen, dynamischen Optimierungsmodell MAgPIE, zeigen die hier vorgestellten Forschungsergebnisse, dass die Governance-Leistung einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf den technologischen Fortschritt und das Wachstum der Flächenproduktivität hat, insbesondere für in der Entwicklung begriffene Regionen wie Lateinamerika, Afrika südlich der Sahara, Südasien und Südostasien. Dies wirkt sich wiederum auf die Landnutzungsdynamik aus, einschließlich der Ausdehnung von Ackerflächen und der Entwaldung. Neben Umweltauswirkungen beeinflusst die Governance-Leistung auch Lebensmittelpreise und das Handelsverhalten, und damit die Existenzgrundlagen vieler Menschen. Darüber hinaus legt die Dissertation nahe, dass sich das globale Produktivitätswachstum trotz unterschiedlicher sozioökonomischer Bedingungen wahrscheinlich fortsetzen wird. Die Größenordnung der Wachstumsrate unter den jeweiligen Bedingungen variiert jedoch, je nach verwendeten Produktivitätsindizes. Unterschiede in den sozioökonomischen Gegebenheiten führen zu einer Zunahme des Produktivitätswachstums im Ackerbau, was tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf die Anbaufläche und die Lebensmittelpreise hat. Nicht zuletzt zeigen die Ergebnisse der Dissertation, dass die Liberalisierung des Agrarhandels negative Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das landwirtschaftliche Angebot abfedern kann, den Anstieg der Lebensmittelpreise im Zuge von erheblichen klimabedingten Ertragseinbußen begrenzen und die Ausdehnung der Anbauflächen im globalen Maßstab verringern kann. In bestimmten Regionen kann es aufgrund von veränderten Handelsmustern zu einer Ausdehnung der Anbauflächen kommen. In Zusammenschau der Ergebnisse aus den Einzelstudien vertieft die vorliegende Dissertation das Verständnis für potenzielle Zielkonflikte und Synergien von wirtschaftspolitischen Optionen, die darauf abzielen, die Produktionskapazitäten im landwirtschaftlichen Sektor der steigenden Nachfrage entsprechend auszubauen. / Building upon an agro-economic dynamic optimization model known as MAgPIE, this dissertation fseeks to enhance representation of the economic factors in the model. The research findings reveal that governance performance has a significant impact on technological progress and land productivity growth, especially for developing regions, such as Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. This, in turn, exerts impacts on land dynamics, including cropland expansion and deforestation. Aside from environmental impacts, governance performance affects livelihoods, as it influences food prices and trade patterns. Moreover, the dissertation suggests that global productivity growth is likely to continue, despite differences in possible socioeconomic conditions. However, the magnitude of the growth rate under each set of conditions will vary, according to different productivity indices. Differences in socioeconomic conditions lead to a spread in productivity growth in the crop sector, which will have profound implications for cropland expansion and food prices. Last but not least, the dissertation argues that liberalizing agricultural trade can buffer negative impacts from climate change on agricultural supply, limit increasing food prices in a scenario of high-end climate impacts on crop yields, and reduce cropland expansion on the global scale, though it may induce cropland expansion in certain regions due to changes in trade patterns. Synthesizing the findings from the individuals studies of which it is comprised, the dissertation is intended to enhance understanding of the trade-offs and synergies of economic options for agricultural outputs to keep pace with increasing demand and, thereby, contribute to the core discussion among agricultural economists on food production and its economic and environmental impacts.