The thesis is an explorative study of the notion of constraints to Russia’s foreign policy. The explorative attempt investigates Moscow’s external behaviour vis a vis the states of the Baltics and the South Caucasus from 2013 to 2020. The analysis argues that the notion of constraints, under the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, can offer a certain degree of explanatory power in terms of foreign policy variance. The operationalization of the notion, based on Foreign Policy Analysis Theory, proposes specific factors for inspection. Initially, a thematic analysis of Russia’s Foreign Policy Documents of 2013 and 2016, illustrates that the notion of constraints and regionalism is lacking from the perception of the actor. The two documents understand the external world more in terms of threat/risk instead of constraints. Consequently, an examination of the constraints on the level of the international system, and the regional actors demonstrates that the notion holds analytical value under certain circumstances, however, it overlaps with existing frameworks such as that of Tsygankov’s constructivist version, and Structural Realism. The explorative research brings forward fields where the literature on Russia’s foreign policy can be enriched. One of the suggestions is associated with inspecting the notion of fear conditioning in the policy documents of the country.

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Possessing a vision to correct problems is an area of interest for leadership and political studies, as presumably vision provides the goal to orient upon and overcome problems, and should apply at all levels of leadership. The worsening situation in Syria since the end of the Cold War begs the questions of whether any recent U.S. President tried to address the issues in the relationship with Syria, and what was the vision the President sought to achieve. This study reviews Presidential rhetoric from President's News Conferences, major speeches and Executive Orders for a vision to ascertain the intended direction for U.S. policy for Syria. Also, the study reviews the leadership styles of the five Presidents for consistency and effectiveness in conveying a foreign policy message. Broadly, the study concludes that the Presidents need more than a strategy to engage other nation to fix problems. They need an achievable outcome to aim the U.S. government towards and to effectively broadcast their vision to a broad audience. It takes an appreciation for history, realistic expectations and an eye for the future to form a vision for a coherent way forward. Unfortunately, the Presidents in this study did not give the appropriate time or resources to correct the pervasive problems in Syria. Their overall policies ranged from incoherent to stagnant, therefore hampering the U.S. ability to guide progress fixing the situation. / Master of Arts / The pervasive problems within Syria are some of the more important U.S. foreign policy issues that require guidance and direction to overcome. The worsening situation in Syria since the end of the Cold War begs the questions of whether any recent U.S. President tried to address the issues in the relationship with Syria. Broadly, the study concludes that it takes more than a strategy to engage another nation and fix problems. It takes an appreciation for history, realistic expectations and an eye for the future to form a vision for a coherent way forward. Additionally, Presidents require the ability to effectively communicate their vision to a broad audience. Unfortunately, it appears the Presidents in this study did not give the appropriate time or resources to correct the problems, and therefore hampered the U.S. President’s ability to guide progress to fix the situation.

Buscando-se comparar a política externa dos dois últimos governos do Brasil, trabalhamos com as hipóteses de que houve redução de esforços, causadas pelo perfil da atual presidente, menos tendente a abordar assuntos internacionais, e pela conjuntura internacional de crise econômica, que restringe a margem de ação externa do Brasil. Para verificar essas hipóteses, comparam-se as características da política externa de ambos os governos – por meio da avaliação de variáveis como viagens presidenciais e expansão do Ministério das Relações Exteriores –, contrapondo os dados às perspectivas já disponíveis de analistas da área. Para explicar as mudanças constatadas, utiliza-se o modelo de análise de política externa de Hermann, que prevê a consideração dos perfis dos líderes, das conjunturas internacionais durante cada período e de outras variáveis capazes de influenciar a política externa do país. A conclusão aponta para a verificação das hipóteses e para a importância da continuidade do estudo. / Attempting to compare the foreign policy from the two past Brazilian presidencies, we develop the hypothesis that there has been a withdraw of efforts, caused by the profile of the current president, less willing to approach international affairs, and by the international context of economic crisis, that restrain the margin of action of Brazil. To verify these hypothesis, characteristics of the foreign policy of both governments are compared - through the evaluation of variables such as presidential travels and expansion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs -, comparing collected data to already available perspectives of analysts from the area. To explain the changes we identify, we use the model of foreign policy analysis developed by Hermann, which considers the profile of leaders, the international conjuncture during each period and other variables capable of influencing the national foreign policy. The conclusion stresses the verification of the hypothesis and the importance of new researches on the theme.

Buscando-se comparar a política externa dos dois últimos governos do Brasil, trabalhamos com as hipóteses de que houve redução de esforços, causadas pelo perfil da atual presidente, menos tendente a abordar assuntos internacionais, e pela conjuntura internacional de crise econômica, que restringe a margem de ação externa do Brasil. Para verificar essas hipóteses, comparam-se as características da política externa de ambos os governos – por meio da avaliação de variáveis como viagens presidenciais e expansão do Ministério das Relações Exteriores –, contrapondo os dados às perspectivas já disponíveis de analistas da área. Para explicar as mudanças constatadas, utiliza-se o modelo de análise de política externa de Hermann, que prevê a consideração dos perfis dos líderes, das conjunturas internacionais durante cada período e de outras variáveis capazes de influenciar a política externa do país. A conclusão aponta para a verificação das hipóteses e para a importância da continuidade do estudo. / Attempting to compare the foreign policy from the two past Brazilian presidencies, we develop the hypothesis that there has been a withdraw of efforts, caused by the profile of the current president, less willing to approach international affairs, and by the international context of economic crisis, that restrain the margin of action of Brazil. To verify these hypothesis, characteristics of the foreign policy of both governments are compared - through the evaluation of variables such as presidential travels and expansion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs -, comparing collected data to already available perspectives of analysts from the area. To explain the changes we identify, we use the model of foreign policy analysis developed by Hermann, which considers the profile of leaders, the international conjuncture during each period and other variables capable of influencing the national foreign policy. The conclusion stresses the verification of the hypothesis and the importance of new researches on the theme.

Buscando-se comparar a política externa dos dois últimos governos do Brasil, trabalhamos com as hipóteses de que houve redução de esforços, causadas pelo perfil da atual presidente, menos tendente a abordar assuntos internacionais, e pela conjuntura internacional de crise econômica, que restringe a margem de ação externa do Brasil. Para verificar essas hipóteses, comparam-se as características da política externa de ambos os governos – por meio da avaliação de variáveis como viagens presidenciais e expansão do Ministério das Relações Exteriores –, contrapondo os dados às perspectivas já disponíveis de analistas da área. Para explicar as mudanças constatadas, utiliza-se o modelo de análise de política externa de Hermann, que prevê a consideração dos perfis dos líderes, das conjunturas internacionais durante cada período e de outras variáveis capazes de influenciar a política externa do país. A conclusão aponta para a verificação das hipóteses e para a importância da continuidade do estudo. / Attempting to compare the foreign policy from the two past Brazilian presidencies, we develop the hypothesis that there has been a withdraw of efforts, caused by the profile of the current president, less willing to approach international affairs, and by the international context of economic crisis, that restrain the margin of action of Brazil. To verify these hypothesis, characteristics of the foreign policy of both governments are compared - through the evaluation of variables such as presidential travels and expansion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs -, comparing collected data to already available perspectives of analysts from the area. To explain the changes we identify, we use the model of foreign policy analysis developed by Hermann, which considers the profile of leaders, the international conjuncture during each period and other variables capable of influencing the national foreign policy. The conclusion stresses the verification of the hypothesis and the importance of new researches on the theme.