I investigated the effect of climate change in one of the few expanding markets in the world in Brazil. In the last decades the demand for pulpwood increased from zero to 11 million tons, leading to an expansion of 700 thousand hectares of Eucalyptus plantation. In 2024, a new mill will start operating increasing the consumption of wood fiber by 8.2 million tons (+49%). I used mathematical programming to investigate how different scenarios of productivity and land will affect the market. My results showed that around 946,000 hectares (+124%) of additional timberland will be necessary in the upcoming decades. The first impact will be an increase in the production cost of around US$550 million (+16.4%) in 25 years. If the rate of land cover change remains constant, the broad development of the local market would be constrained, discouraging future investments, and reducing potential positive externalities in the region.

Familjeskogsbruket har sällan någon anledning att bekymra sig om grundläggande förändringar av verksamhetens inriktning. I ett slag har dock situationen förändrats för skogsägarna i de stormdrabbade områdena. Den uppkomna situationen gör att många olika beslut måste tas som kommer att forma skogsfastigheten i flera decennier. Det finns därför ett behov av att kunna styra skogsgårdens verksamhet så att varje enskilt beslut bildar ett enhetligt mönster mot ett gemensamt mål. Ett sätt att göra det på är att använda teorierna kring strategisk management och applicera dessa på familjeskogsbruken. Denna rapport har utgått från gängse metodik vid strategiframtagning och målsättningsarbete. Olika metoder och verktyg beskrivs till sitt innehåll och syfte. Därefter samlas ett antal metoder i ett arbetsflöde som passar behoven för skogsgårdens strategiframtagning. Slutligen testas metodiken på en speciell skogsgård i det storm-drabbade området För att få kontinuitet i förändringsarbetet så har en återkommande revidering av strategiarbetet föreslagits. Det är bara genom ett enträget och långsiktigt arbete som gamla vanor och arbetsprocesser kan förändras. / The family forest farms do seldom have any reason to worry about basic changes of the business plan. In an instant, that has been changed for the forest owners in the region that was hardest hit by the storm. The situation at hand calls for a lot of different decisions to be taken that will shape the forest estate for several decades. There is a need for controlling the forest farm business so that each individual decision is forming a uniform pattern against a defined objective. One way of doing just that is to use the theories of strategic management and apply those on the family forest farm business. This report is based on the generic methodology that is used for strategy definition and goal setting. Different methods and tools are described to content and purpose. After that, a couple of methods are used in a work flow that fit the needs when developing the strategies for the forest farm. As a last step, the methodology is tested on a special forest farm that is situated in the storm hit region. To achieve continuity in the change process, a reoccurring assessment of the strategy work has been proposed. It is only by dedicated and consistent work that old habits and working processes can be changed.

The purpose of this study is to explain how the value of sawn wood changes when sawn wood are cut in 30 respective 60 cm lengths. The raw material into the saw mill will mainly be bucked in 30 cm and 60 cm modules. There will also be two alternatives where the timber will be bucked special lengths, 370, 490 and 550 cm but also in 490 and 550 cm. The method used for the study is to simulate both cutting and sawing the woods. For cutting the simulator Timan is used and for sawing the simulator Timberopt is used. When data is generated from the simulators, calculations of some key figures is done and also how much the revenue need to be increased for the sawn wood in order to cover for the increased costs of changing sawn wood from 30 cm to 60 cm modules The conclusion is that the single biggest reason, impacting the value of the sawn wood is the cutting at the saw mill. When going from 30 to 60 cm modules, the impact will be that the customers to the saw mill must pay more to increase the revenue by at least 10% for the sawn wood in order to justifice the change in production. It is also possible to increase the value of the products further by bucking the timber in three lengths, 370, 490 and 550 cm, in order to get 12 % increase of the share of longer sawn wood (>= 480 cm). / Syftet med studien är att förklara hur värdet på sågad vara förändras när den avkapas i 30 respektive 60 cm moduler. Råvaran in till sågverket kommer huvudsakligen att apteras i 30 cm respektive 60 cm moduler. Det kommer också att finnas två alternativ där timret apteras i speciallängderna 370, 490 och 550 cm, samt 490 och 550 cm. Metoden som användes i studien är att simulera såväl aptering som avkapning. För aptering i skogen användes simulatorn Timan. För sönderdelning och avkap på sågverket användes simulatorn Timberopt. När data genererats från simulatorerna har också beräkning av vissa nyckeltal gjorts, samt beräkningar på hur mycket intäkterna för den sågade varan behöver öka för att täcka värdeminskningen av en omläggning av sågad vara från 30 cm till 60 cm moduler. Slutsatsen är att den största, enskilda posten till minskat värde uppstår vid avkapet i justerverket. Vid en övergång från 30 cm till 60 cm moduler, blir konsekvensen att kunderna till sågverket måste vara beredda att betala minst 10% mer för att täcka värdeminskningen vid omläggning till 60 cm moduler. Det är också möjligt att öka värdet på produkten ytterligare genom att aptera timret i två långa och en kort längd, dvs 370, 490 och 550 cm. Då fås en ökning med ca 12% av sågad vara som överstiger 480 cm i längd.

<p>Familjeskogsbruket har sällan någon anledning att bekymra sig om grundläggande förändringar av verksamhetens inriktning.</p><p>I ett slag har dock situationen förändrats för skogsägarna i de stormdrabbade områdena. Den uppkomna situationen gör att många olika beslut måste tas som kommer att forma skogsfastigheten i flera decennier. Det finns därför ett behov av att kunna styra skogsgårdens verksamhet så att varje enskilt beslut bildar ett enhetligt mönster mot ett gemensamt mål. Ett sätt att göra det på är att använda teorierna kring strategisk management och applicera dessa på familjeskogsbruken.</p><p>Denna rapport har utgått från gängse metodik vid strategiframtagning och målsättningsarbete. Olika metoder och verktyg beskrivs till sitt innehåll och syfte. Därefter samlas ett antal metoder i ett arbetsflöde som passar behoven för skogsgårdens strategiframtagning. Slutligen testas metodiken på en speciell skogsgård i det storm-drabbade området</p><p>För att få kontinuitet i förändringsarbetet så har en återkommande revidering av strategiarbetet föreslagits. Det är bara genom ett enträget och långsiktigt arbete som gamla vanor och arbetsprocesser kan förändras.</p> / <p>The family forest farms do seldom have any reason to worry about basic changes of the business plan.</p><p>In an instant, that has been changed for the forest owners in the region that was hardest hit by the storm. The situation at hand calls for a lot of different decisions to be taken that will shape the forest estate for several decades. There is a need for controlling the forest farm business so that each individual decision is forming a uniform pattern against a defined objective. One way of doing just that is to use the theories of strategic management and apply those on the family forest farm business.</p><p>This report is based on the generic methodology that is used for strategy definition and goal setting. Different methods and tools are described to content and purpose. After that, a couple of methods are used in a work flow that fit the needs when developing the strategies for the forest farm. As a last step, the methodology is tested on a special forest farm that is situated in the storm hit region.</p><p>To achieve continuity in the change process, a reoccurring assessment of the strategy work has been proposed. It is only by dedicated and consistent work that old habits and working processes can be changed.</p>

<p>The purpose of this study is to explain how the value of sawn wood changes when sawn wood are cut in 30 respective 60 cm lengths. The raw material into the saw mill will mainly be bucked in 30</p><p>cm and 60 cm modules. There will also be two alternatives where the timber will be bucked special lengths, 370, 490 and 550 cm but also in 490 and 550 cm.</p><p>The method used for the study is to simulate both cutting and sawing the woods. For cutting the simulator Timan is used and for sawing the simulator Timberopt is used. When data is generated</p><p>from the simulators, calculations of some key figures is done and also how much the revenue need to be increased for the sawn wood in order to cover for the increased costs of changing sawn wood</p><p>from 30 cm to 60 cm modules</p><p>The conclusion is that the single biggest reason, impacting the value of the sawn wood is the cutting at the saw mill.</p><p>When going from 30 to 60 cm modules, the impact will be that the customers to the saw mill must pay more to increase the revenue by at least 10% for the sawn wood in order to justifice the change</p><p>in production.</p><p>It is also possible to increase the value of the products further by bucking the timber in three lengths, 370, 490 and 550 cm, in order to get 12 % increase of the share of longer sawn wood (>= 480 cm).</p> / <p>Syftet med studien är att förklara hur värdet på sågad vara förändras när den avkapas i 30 respektive 60 cm moduler. Råvaran in till sågverket kommer huvudsakligen att apteras i 30 cm respektive 60 cm moduler. Det kommer också att finnas två alternativ där timret apteras i speciallängderna 370, 490 och 550 cm, samt 490 och</p><p>550 cm.</p><p>Metoden som användes i studien är att simulera såväl aptering som avkapning. För aptering i skogen användes simulatorn Timan. För sönderdelning och avkap på sågverket användes simulatorn Timberopt. När data genererats från simulatorerna har också beräkning av vissa nyckeltal gjorts, samt beräkningar på hur mycket intäkterna för den sågade varan behöver öka för att täcka värdeminskningen av en omläggning av sågad vara från 30 cm till 60 cm moduler.</p><p>Slutsatsen är att den största, enskilda posten till minskat värde uppstår vid avkapet i justerverket.</p><p>Vid en övergång från 30 cm till 60 cm moduler, blir konsekvensen att kunderna till sågverket måste vara beredda att betala minst 10% mer för att täcka värdeminskningen vid omläggning till 60 cm moduler.</p><p>Det är också möjligt att öka värdet på produkten ytterligare genom att aptera timret i två långa och en kort längd, dvs 370, 490 och 550 cm. Då fås en ökning med ca 12% av sågad vara som överstiger 480 cm i längd.</p>

Au cours des dernières décennies, la détérioration de la santé des forêts a entraîné des épidémies fréquentes des ravageurs et pathogènes. Ces phénomènes menacent la capacité des forêts à fournir des biens et services écosystémiques à la société. Il est donc nécessaire de maintenir la santé des arbres et de réduire les effets des parasites et des agents pathogènes. Cette thèse considère trois problèmes de gestion du point de vue économique : l'invasion actuelle, l'invasion attendue d'un agent pathogène, et les attaques d'un parasite endémique. À partir de ces trois problèmes de gestion, la thèse vise à évaluer les impacts des ravageurs et des pathogènes forestiers et à informer sur la manière dont les ressources peuvent être réparties de façon optimale pour assurer la fourniture de biens et de services par la forêt à long terme.Les invasions biotiques ont un impact sur les prix des produits du bois du fait des chocs d'approvisionnement qui, à leur tour, influencent les choix de gestion forestière. Ceci permet d'introduire des effets de réaction entre les dynamiques écologiques et de marché. Le premier article vise à évaluer ces impacts en combinant un modèle d’équilibre partiel avec des modèles de diffusion spatiale et de mortalité, calibrés pour représenter le dépérissement du Frêne en France (causé par le pathogène Hymenoscyphus fraxineus). Les résultats montrent que les impacts dépendent généralement de la distribution des ressources, de la propagation du pathogène et de la structure du marché. On observe que les choix d’adaptation des gestionnaires forestiers (c'est-à-dire les choix de régénération et de récolte) sont une composante non négligeable de la perte de volume totale.Le deuxième article est axé sur la surveillance et le contrôle d’une invasion attendue. La surveillance et la détection précoce des espèces envahissantes sont importantes pour atténuer les dommages et réduire les coûts de contrôle. Dans le cas où plusieurs propriétaires sont concernés, l’effort de surveillance des propriétaires plus proches du point d'introduction n’est pas optimal, car il ne prend pas en compte les effets négatifs de l'invasion dans les propriétés voisines. Grâce à un jeu différentiel, combiné à un modèle épidémiologique, nous avons calculé la solution non coopérative et coopérative. Nous avons conçu un paiement monétaire pour soutenir la coopération en fonction d'une décomposition intertemporelle du système de négociation de Nash. Les résultats nous montrent que ce paiement garantit que l’accord entre les deux propriétaires est crédible et incitatif. Le modèle est calibré pour l’éventuelle invasion du nématode du pin (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) dans le Massif Landais.L'objectif principal du troisième article est d'adapter la gestion forestière aux perturbations biotiques et abiotiques. On combine le modèle classique de Faustmann avec un modèle dynamique de population de ravageurs et un modèle de tempête pour calculer l'âge de coupe optimale et le bénéfice actualisé en séquence infinie (BASI) pour différents scénarios de perturbations. Le modèle est appliqué aux dégâts de la chenille processionnaire du pin (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) dans les Landes. Nos résultats ont montré que les tempêtes ont tendance à réduire l'âge optimal de la récolte, alors que le parasite tend à l'augmenter. Les éclaircies augmentent la rentabilité et constituent une stratégie de couverture efficace contre les deux risques. Dans le troisième article, nous avons introduit une règle de décision cut-or-keep pour modéliser le problème du propriétaire forestier après une tempête. Ces implications en termes de gestion sont étudiées plus en détail dans le quatrième article. Notre règle de décision conduit à des gains plus élevés (dans environ 75% des cas) qu’en suivant la règle, généralement utilisée en économie, qui consiste à couper et à replanter les arbres survivants indépendamment du niveau de dégâts. / In recent decades, the deterioration of forest health resulted in frequent pests’ outbreaks and the diffuse pathogens’ presence. These phenomena threaten forests’ ability to supply ecosystem goods and services to the society. It is therefore necessary to maintain tree health and reduce pest’s and pathogen’s impacts. This thesis approaches three management problems from an economic perspective such as the current invasion and the incumbent invasion of a forest pathogen as well as the outbreaks of a native pest. Starting from these three pest and pathogen management problems, the thesis aims at assessing the impacts of forest pests and pathogens and, secondly, informing how resources can be optimally allocated for assuring the long-term provision of good and services.Pest and pathogens invasions have an impact on the prices of wood products via supply shocks, which, in turn, influence forest management choices, thus introducing feedback effects between market and ecological dynamics at a large scale. The first paper aims at evaluating these impacts by combining a recursive partial equilibrium model with spatial-explicit pathogen-spread and pathogen-induced mortality models calibrated to represent the ash dieback in France (caused by the pathogen Hymenoscyphus fraxineus). Results showed that impacts are not homogeneous across regions and generally depend on the resource distribution, pathogen spread and market structure. We observed that the behavioural adaptation of forest managers (i.e., regeneration and harvesting choices) is a non-negligible component of the total standing volume loss.The second paper focusses on monitoring and control of an incumbent invasion. Monitoring and early detection of invasive species is important to mitigate the damages and reduce the control costs. However, when multiple decision-makers are involved, the monitoring effort of frontier landowners (landowners closer to the introduction point) is suboptimal because it does not consider the negative impacts of the invasion spreading to neighbouring properties. Through a two-player differential game combined with an epidemiological compartmental model, we computed the non-cooperative and the cooperative solution. We designed a monetary payment to sustain cooperation based on an intertemporal decomposition of the Nash bargaining scheme. We showed that this payment assured time-consistent outcomes, meaning that the ex-ante agreement between the two landowners was credible and self-enforcing. The model was calibrated for the possible invasion of the pine wilt nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) in south-western France.In the last two papers, the analysis is downscaled from the landscape level to the stand level and concentrates on a native defoliator pest. The main objective of the third paper is to adapt forest management to biotic and abiotic disturbances. The classic Faustmann model was combined with a pest population model and a windstorm model to compute the optimal rotation age and the land expectation value (LEV) for different disturbances scenarios. The model was calibrated for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) plantations in south-western France and Pine Processionary Moth (PPM, Thaumetopoea pityocampa) cyclical outbreaks. Our results showed that storms tend to reduce the optimal harvest age, whereas PPM tends to increase it. Overall, the impact of PPM on the rotation length prevails and, here, risks increase rather than decrease the optimal rotation length. Thinnings increased profitability and constitute an effective hedging strategy against both risks. In the third paper, we introduced a cut-or-keep decision rule to model the forest owner problem after a storm event. Its economic and management implications are further investigated in the fourth paper. Unlike previous economic studies which assumed clearing and replanting regardless of the level of damages, the cut-or-keep condition led to higher payoffs in roughly 75% of the cases.

A consideração de condicionantes espaciais em modelos de otimização matemática para lidar com o manejo de florestas públicas e privadas é cada vez mais comum. Um desses condicionantes é a imposição de corredores de conectividade para o abrigo e movimentação da fauna e flora, principalmente devido ao elevado grau de fragmentação das áreas de vegetação nativa, o qual exerce um forte impacto na probabilidade de sobrevivência de várias espécies no longo prazo. O objetivo deste trabalho é o desenvolvimento de metodologias auxiliares que permitam ao gestor florestal garantir uma conectividade mínima entre fragmentos de vegetação nativa utilizando unidades de manejo da floresta de produção com determinadas características, interligando fragmentos adjacentes a floresta de produção concomitantemente com a produção de bens e serviços florestais. Duas técnicas foram consideradas; um modelo matemático de programação linear inteira mista e uma heurística denominada heurística da RazãoR. Os dois métodos consideraram o estabelecimento de corredores de conectividade em todos os períodos do horizonte de planejamento simultaneamente, e as equações inseridas permitem ao gestor controlar a qualidade das unidades de manejo aptas a formar o corredor. O modelo de programação linear inteira mista proposto para resolução desse problema faz uso de uma importante propriedade da programação em redes, permitindo a inserção das restrições de conectividade sem adicionar variáveis binárias além daquelas necessárias ao modelo sem conectividade. A solução ótima foi obtida tanto o problema com incorporação de conectividade como para o problema sem conectividade, sendo a diferença entre valores das respectivas funções objetivo o custo de oportunidade do estabelecimento dos corredores. Na heurística da RazãoR, utilizou-se um algoritmo recursivo baseado na Teoria de Grafos e na programação dinâmica para se avaliar o déficit de conectividade das soluções. Dois estudos de caso foram utilizados para a aplicação das técnicas propostas, uma fazenda de uma empresa de celulose do estado de São Paulo, denominada Fazenda Empresarial, e o Parque Estadual Anhanguera. Os dois métodos alcançaram o objetivo de elaborar planos otimizados de manejo florestal estabelecendo uma conectividade mínima entre os fragmentos de vegetação nativa. O custo avaliado para o estabelecimento da conectividade da Fazenda Empresarial foi de 0,051% do valor da função objetivo do problema sem conectividade. A heurística mostrou-se eficaz em encontrar ótimas soluções viáveis, com valores da função objetivo variando de 99,71% a 99,83% do valor encontrado pelo modelo de programação linear inteira mista, após um número médio de 48 iterações. Entretanto, o tempo médio para a heurística encontrar uma solução para o problema foi de dez minutos e vinte e cinco segundos, sendo cinco vezes superior ao tempo necessário para o modelo matemático retornar a solução ótima (um minuto e cinqüenta e quatro segundos). A provável causa do baixo desempenho da heurística em termos de tempo para encontrar uma solução se encontra no método de programação que não buscou gerar um código rápido, deixando espaço no futuro para melhorias quando problemas de maior escala precisem ser resolvidos e a solução de grandes problemas de programação linear inteira mista não possa ser encontrada pelos softwares convencionais. / The consideration of spatial constraints into mathematical optimization models to deal with the management of public and private forests is increasingly common. Due to the increasing fragmentation of natural forests and decreasing species survival\'s probability, an important constraint considers the existence of corridors that work as shelters to allow for the movement and exchange of fauna and flora species. The aim of this paper is the development of auxiliary methodologies to support forest manager in creating a minimal net of corridors formed by industrial forest stands with certain characteristics that connect industrial stands and still conciliate production and environmental concerns. Two techniques were considered; a mixed integer linear programming model and a heuristic procedure called the R-ratio method. Both techniques dealt with the simultaneous incorporation of connectivity corridors over all planning periods in the planning horizon, and allowed the manager to control the quality of the forest stands that can take part of the corridors. The mixed integer linear programming model created to solve this problem relies on an important property of network optimization models, allowing the insertion of the connectivity restrictions without increasing the number of binary variables already present in the model with no connectivity constraints. The optimal solution was achieved in both models, and the difference between the two objective functions revealed the opportunity cost of establishing the corridors. In the R-ratio heuristic, a recursive algorithm based on Graph Theory and on dynamic programming was used. The technique was applied in two cases, a farm of a owned by a pulpwood company in the State of São Paulo, referred to as the Company Farm, and the Anhanguera Forest State Park. Both methods optimized the objective and produced forest management plans that resulted in minimal connectivity among all fragments of native forests. The cost of creating corridor on the Company Farm represents 0,051% of the total objective function value for the no connectivity formulation. The R-ratio heuristic was effective in finding good viable solutions to the problem, with values to the objective function varying from 99,71% to 99,83% of the value found to the optimal solution of a mixed integer linear programming, after an average of 48 iterations. Meanwhile, the heuristic took an average time of ten minutes and twenty five seconds to find a viable good viable solution, representing five times the time required by the mixed integer formulation to find an optimal solution. The probable cause of this low performance in terms of time to find a solution is that the heuristic was not programmed to efficiently generate fast executable codes, leaving space for future improvements if necessary when dealing with large scale problems and in the absence of conventional software capable of dealing with large scale mixed integer linear programming problems.

Denna studie handlar om pelletering som möjlig lönsam marginalaffär vid mindre sågverk/hyvlerier. Studien, vilken skett genom djupintervjuer på plats, omfattar fem olika mindre sågverk/hyvlerier i Småland. Verksamheterna är sinsemellan på många sätt olika men har samtliga satsat på pelletering av ekonomiska skäl och av miljöskäl. Studien visar att pelletering är lönsam men också att det krävs vissa förutsättningar för att långsiktigt nå denna lönsamhet. Den viktigaste är långsiktig tillgång till råvara i form av torrt spån men det krävs även ett genuint intresse och en stor kunskap inom såväl teknik som trä för den som skall pelletera Detta beror på att produktionsprocessen är mycket komplicerad och även beroende av en del yttre omständigheter som t.ex. fukt, kyla och torka. Eftersom komplexiteten, och därmed den initiala personella insatsen är stor, bör man också uppnå vissa minimikvantiteter i produktionen. Studien visar också att det även krävs ett antal övriga element för att pelleteringen skall uppvisa den lönsamhet som en hastig förkalkyl ger vid handen. Klarar man att leva upp till de flesta av dessa finns det goda förutsättningar att pelletering över en konjunkturcykel kan medverka till att förbättra lönsamheten för den typ av mindre anläggningar som studerats. / This study is about pelleting as a possible profitable marginal business for minor saw-mills and planing mills. It has been carried out through in depth interviews of five different minor saw-mills and planing mills in Småland. These businesses are different themselves but all of them have invested in pelleting for financial and environmental reasons. The study shows that pelleting is profitable but also that a number of conditions must be fulfilled to reach profitability in the long run. The most important success factor is long-term access to raw material (dry chip) but the production process also demands a high interest and knowledge in wood and processing technology. This is due to the fact that the process is very complex and also depending on external circumstances like humidity, coldness and dryness. Due to this complexity and that the demand of manpower is rather high one should aim for producing at least a certain minimum quantity. The study also shows that there are a couple of other factors that are needed to be fulfilled to reach the profitability that the pre-calculation indicates. If most of these conditions are fulfilled there are very good possibilities that pelleting over a business cycle can contribute to an improved profitability for the type of businesses that have been studied.

<p>Denna studie handlar om pelletering som möjlig lönsam marginalaffär vid mindre sågverk/hyvlerier. Studien, vilken skett genom djupintervjuer på plats, omfattar fem olika mindre sågverk/hyvlerier i Småland. Verksamheterna är sinsemellan på många sätt olika men har samtliga satsat på pelletering av ekonomiska skäl och av miljöskäl.</p><p>Studien visar att pelletering är lönsam men också att det krävs vissa förutsättningar för att långsiktigt nå denna lönsamhet. Den viktigaste är långsiktig tillgång till råvara i form av torrt spån men det krävs även ett genuint intresse och en stor kunskap inom såväl teknik som trä för den som skall pelletera Detta beror på att produktionsprocessen är mycket komplicerad och även beroende av en del yttre omständigheter som t.ex. fukt, kyla och torka. Eftersom komplexiteten, och därmed den initiala personella insatsen är stor, bör man också uppnå vissa minimikvantiteter i produktionen. Studien visar också att det även krävs ett antal övriga element för att pelleteringen skall uppvisa den lönsamhet som en hastig förkalkyl ger vid handen.</p><p>Klarar man att leva upp till de flesta av dessa finns det goda förutsättningar att pelletering över en konjunkturcykel kan medverka till att förbättra lönsamheten för den typ av mindre anläggningar som studerats.</p> / <p>This study is about pelleting as a possible profitable marginal business for minor saw-mills and planing mills. It has been carried out through in depth interviews of five different minor saw-mills and planing mills in Småland. These businesses are different themselves but all of them have invested in pelleting for financial and environmental reasons.</p><p>The study shows that pelleting is profitable but also that a number of conditions must be fulfilled to reach profitability in the long run. The most important success factor is long-term access to raw material (dry chip) but the production process also demands a high interest and knowledge in wood and processing technology. This is due to the fact that the process is very complex and also depending on external circumstances like humidity, coldness and dryness. Due to this complexity and that the demand of manpower is rather high one should aim for producing at least a certain minimum quantity.</p><p>The study also shows that there are a couple of other factors that are needed to be fulfilled to reach the profitability that the pre-calculation indicates.</p><p>If most of these conditions are fulfilled there are very good possibilities that pelleting over a business cycle can contribute to an improved profitability for the type of businesses that have been studied.</p>

Les forêts de l'Union Européenne croissent de 1.2 milliards de m³ par an. La moitié de ce volume reste en forêt. L'autre moitié alimente trois filières industrielles: la filière matériaux, la filière papiers et la filière énergie. Ces flux de produits industriels sont mis en mouvement et financés par divers consommateurs. Or depuis 2000, la consommation change de régime, au point de perturber fortement certains flux de bois et d'impacter l'emploi et la balance commerciale du secteur. Pour prévoir l'impact de ces changements, les économistes modélisent les relations entre l'offre de matières premières, la demande de produits finis, les prix, la production et le commerce international. Cette thèse construit un modèle empirique à même d'évaluer l'impact de ces changements pour le secteur forêt-bois en Europe.Un chapitre introductif définit le contexte des ressources forestières et des produits analysés au niveau macroéconomique. Puis je présente les principaux modèles en équilibre partiel utilisés pour les études prospectives du secteur forêt-bois. A partir d'un cadre général incluant la production et le commerce international, je détaille les problèmes spécifiques rencontrés lors de l'estimation des fonctions de demande. Un deuxième chapitre étudie l'impact potentiel d'un accord commercial entre l'Union Européenne et les États-Unis sur le secteur forestier. Nous avons trouvé que le bien-être total augmenterait dans la région de l'accord et diminuerait légèrement ailleurs. De plus l'accord est plus avantageux pour les consommateurs que pour les producteurs. Les résultats montrent aussi que des pays tiers sont impactés par l'accord, ce qui souligne l'importance d'utiliser un modèle mondial. Dans un troisième chapitre, j'estime les élasticités prix et revenu de la demande en produits forestiers sur un panel de pays européens. Je traite des problèmes de non stationnarité en panel et j'estime les élasticités au sein de panels cointégrés. Les élasticités de demande sont inférieures aux estimations précédentes dans la littérature. Ces élasticités robustes insérées dans un modèle secteur forêt-bois projettent une demande plus faible sur une période de 20 ans. Dans un quatrième chapitre, j'analyse les changements structurels dans la consommation de papier. J'utilise un modèle économétrique sur données de panel permettant d'estimer les effets de seuil dans la relation entre l'utilisation des technologies de l'information et la consommation de papier: papier journal, papier d'impression et papier d'écriture. Je montre comment l'élasticité de demande de papier dépend de la pénétration d'internet dans la population. Un effet de seuil a lieu lorsque la majorité d'une population a accès à internet. Après le seuil, les coefficients liant la consommation et ses variables explicatives (prix et revenu) diminuent en valeur absolue ou changent de signe. A partir d'une projection du nombre d'utilisateurs d'internet par pays, les projections de consommation de papier pourraient être mises à jour avec ce type de modèles à transition. Une plus faible demande de papier libère des ressources et les rend disponibles pour le développement d'autres produits et services forestiers innovants. / Forests in the European Union grow by 1.2 billion m³ per year. Half of this volume stays in the forest, in particular for sustainable forest management purposes. The other half flows into three industrial sectors: wooden material, paper products and wood energy. These industrial product flows are set into motion and paid for by diverse final consumers. Since 2000, consumption is undergoing important structural changes which cause large disturbances in material, paper and fuel flows. To predict the impact of these changes, economists model relationships between raw material supply, final products demand, prices, production and international trade. This thesis uses panel data econometrics to estimate parameters of empirical models. An introductory chapter sets the policy context of forest resources and forest products of interest at a macroeconomic level. Then I review major forest sector models and I focus on issues encountered while estimating parameters of demand models. A second chapter investigates the potential impact of a trade agreement between the EU and the US on the forest sector. We found that total welfare would increase in the region of the agreement, in addition the agreement benefits more to consumers than to producers. Results show that third party countries are impacted by the agreement too, which highlights the importance of using a global trade model in analysing the impacts of the agreement. In a third chapter I estimate revenue and price elasticities of demand for forest products on a panel of European countries. I deal with non stationarity issues and estimate demand elasticities within cointegrated panels. I demonstrate that revenue elasticities of demand are lower than previous estimates from the literature. Simulations using these robust elasticities in a forest sector model, show a lower demand over a 20 years time horizon. In a fourth chapter, I analyse structural changes in paper products consumption. For this purpose, I use a panel threshold model to estimate the relationship between information technology use and paper products consumption: newsprint, printing and writing paper. I show how paper demand elasticities depend on internet penetration in the population. Thresholds occur once a majority of the population has access to the internet. After the threshold, coefficients between paper consumption and its explanatory variables revenue and price become smaller in absolute terms or even change sign. Based on projections of the number of internet users per country, paper consumption projections could be updated with this type of thresholds models. From a policy perspective, lower demand for graphics paper would free resources and make them available for innovative forest products and services.