Thesis (M.S.)--Ohio University, March, 1994. / Title from PDF t.p.

Univ., Habil.-Schr.--Stuttgart, 2005. / Literaturverz. S. [245] - 252.

Orientador: Carlos Alberto Favarin Murari / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T05:02:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silva_JulianoAndrade_M.pdf: 2172048 bytes, checksum: c41c62db07439b74c8ae778f46eda707 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A partir das privatizações do setor elétrico nacional na década de 90, o governo federal julgou necessário fortalecer a regulação sobre as concessionárias de distribuição de energia elétrica enquanto que as empresas adquirentes buscaram formas de tornar esta atividade mais rentável, visando a valorização das suas ações. Nesse contexto, é importante que as distribuidoras de energia elétrica disponham de mecanismos de combate às perdas não técnicas, visando minimizar as perdas por fraude, furto, desvios, queimas de equipamentos, ligações erradas nas medições de energia elétrica, entre outras dessa natureza, que influenciam diretamente no faturamento das concessionárias. A partir da classificação socioeconômica de cada área de concessão, a ANEEL realizou estudos estatísticos para determinar a empresa benchmark e, a partir desta, determinar as metas de redução de perdas para as concessionárias. O regime yardstick competition adotado, estimula a competição em relação à empresa com melhores níveis de eficiência na redução de perdas e com níveis de complexidade socioeconômico similares. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi a elaboração de um modelo matemático fundamentado na teoria de conjuntos nebulosos (Fuzzy Sets), visando a melhoria dos critérios de seleção de unidades consumidoras para fins de inspeção, com o intuito de reduzir as perdas não técnicas. Em MatLab? elaborou-se um algoritmo com variáveis pertinentes ao problema e, por meio de um sistema baseado em regras, sob a égide de um controlador nebuloso aplicando o Método Mamdani, pode-se determinar um escore das instalações mais favoráveis à inspeção pela concessionária. O algoritmo baseado em lógica nebulosa apresentou bom desempenho, com a indicação de novos nichos de seleção e portanto superior ao patamar de especificidade de métodos já usados, entre eles redes neurais e modelo CHAID. A função do modelo nebuloso é fornecer um escore final que diz o quanto a unidade consumidora é irregular ou não / Abstract: From the national power sector privatization in the 90¿s, the federal government has deemed necessary to strengthen the regulation on the electricity distribution utilities while the acquiring companies sought ways to transform this activity into a product that generates more value to their stock trading. In this context, it is important that the electric utilities have mechanisms for combating non-technical losses in order to minimise losses for fraud, theft, misappropriation, burning equipment, faulty connections in the kwh meters, among others, that influence directly in the billing of dealers. From the socioeconomic classification of each concession area, the Electric Power Federal Agency - ANEEL conducted statistical studies to determine the benchmark company and, from this, determine the goals of reducing losses to the electric utilities. The yardstick competition enables compare the performance of various agents and stimulates the competition in relation to the company with the highest levels of efficiency in reducing losses. The objective of this research was the development of a mathematical model based on the theory of fuzzy sets applied to the improvement of the selection criteria of consumer units for inspection purposes, in order to reduce the non-technical losses. In MATLAB? it was developed an algorithm with variables relevant to the problem and, through a rules-based, under the aegis of a Mamdani fuzzy controller applying the method, the system can determine a score of more favorable consumers to inspection by the concessionaire. The algorithm based on fuzzy logic performed well, indicating new niches of selection and therefore superior to the level of specificity of methods already used, including neural networks and the CHAID technique. The function of the fuzzy model is to provide a final score that tells how much the consumer unit is irregular or not / Mestrado / Energia Eletrica / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

Orientador: Jose Roberto de França Arruda / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-05T10:01:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Nunes_RonaldoFernandes_D.pdf: 2368458 bytes, checksum: 01da7061fcacf61682f9aa00dceb6837 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Neste trabalho, o problema da análise dinâmica de estruturas em médias freqüências é abordado. Em geral, métodos numéricos tais como elementos finitos e elementos de contorno não são apropriados para tratar estes casos. As principais razões são a necessidade do refinamento das malhas com o aumento da freqüência e o cálculo da influência dos parâmetros incertos, cujo efeito em particular, para médias e altas freqüências, tende a ser significativo. O problema do refinamento do modelo pode ser superado através de métodos semi-analíticos, como por exemplo, o método do elemento espectral. Em relação à simulação dos sistemas com parâmetros de entrada incertos, métodos baseados em conjuntos nebulosos e métodos probabilísticos são adotados. Nesta tese, uma proposta combinando o método do elemento espectral com conjuntos nebulosos é conduzida. O principal foco deste trabalho é apresentar uma nova abordagem para o problema em médias freqüências. Neste contexto, funções de resposta em freqüência são adotadas para representar o efeito dos parâmetros de entrada não determinísticos na resposta dinâmica de estruturas. Para ilustrar o procedimento proposto, exemplos numéricos são tratados, como o caso simples de uma placa retangular reforçada com vigas e também o caso de uma estrutura do tipo pórtico / Abstract: It is well-known that, in the mid-frequency range, numerical methods such as finite and boundary elements are not suitable for structural dynamic analysis. One of the reasons is the fine mesh resolution required to accurately model the physical problem, leading to large computational models. The other reason is associated with the difficulty in estimating the response statistics for system parameter variations. The mesh refinement problem can be addressed using semi-analytical methods, such as the spectral element method. However, in general, these methods are very limited with respect to the geometry and boundary conditions that can be treated. With respect to parameter variation, the simulation of systems with uncertain parameters has in the past been addressed with different techniques, such as finite elements applied to stochastic problems and fuzzy set based methods. In this thesis, the spectral element method is combined with a special implementation of a fuzzy set based method that avoids the well-know effect of overestimation in interval computations. In this regard, some efficient alternatives, such as the transformation method and the sparse grids approach are proposed. In this work, the main goal is to provide alternatives to address dynamic problems under uncertainty in the mid-frequency range. In this context, envelopes for frequency response functions are used to represent the effect of non-deterministic input parameters in the dynamic response of structures. To illustrate he proposed procedure, numerical examples are treated, such as a simple rectangular plate reinforced with beams and a frame-type model / Doutorado / Mecanica dos Sólidos e Projeto Mecanico / Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica

Este trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de otimização multidisciplinar de projeto conceitual de aeronaves. O conceito de aeronave otimizada tem como base o estudo evolutivo de características das categorias imediatas àquela que se propõe. Como estudo de caso, foi otimizada uma aeronave de treinamento militar que faça a correta transição entre as fases de treinamento básico e avançado. Para o estabelecimento dos parâmetros conceituais esse trabalho integra técnicas de entropia estatística, desdobramento da função de qualidade (QFD), aritmética fuzzy e algoritmo genético (GA) à aplicação de otimização multidisciplinar ponderada de projeto (OMPP) como metodologia de projeto conceitual de aeronaves. Essa metodologia reduz o tempo e o custo de projeto quando comparada com as técnicas tradicionais existentes. / This work is concerned with the development of a methodology for multidisciplinary optimization of the aircraft conceptual design. The aircraft conceptual design optimization was based on the evolutionary simulation of the aircraft characteristics outlined by a QFD/Fuzzy arithmetic approach where the candidates in the Pareto front are selected within categories close to the target proposed. As a test case a military trainer aircraft was designed target to perform the proper transition from basic to advanced training. The methodology for conceptual aircraft design optimization implemented in this work consisted on the integration of techniques such statistical entropy, quality function deployment (QFD), arithmetic fuzzy and genetic algorithm (GA) to the weighted multidisciplinary design optimization (WMDO). This methodology proved to be objective and well balanced when compared with traditional design techniques.

Este trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de uma metodologia de otimização multidisciplinar de projeto conceitual de aeronaves. O conceito de aeronave otimizada tem como base o estudo evolutivo de características das categorias imediatas àquela que se propõe. Como estudo de caso, foi otimizada uma aeronave de treinamento militar que faça a correta transição entre as fases de treinamento básico e avançado. Para o estabelecimento dos parâmetros conceituais esse trabalho integra técnicas de entropia estatística, desdobramento da função de qualidade (QFD), aritmética fuzzy e algoritmo genético (GA) à aplicação de otimização multidisciplinar ponderada de projeto (OMPP) como metodologia de projeto conceitual de aeronaves. Essa metodologia reduz o tempo e o custo de projeto quando comparada com as técnicas tradicionais existentes. / This work is concerned with the development of a methodology for multidisciplinary optimization of the aircraft conceptual design. The aircraft conceptual design optimization was based on the evolutionary simulation of the aircraft characteristics outlined by a QFD/Fuzzy arithmetic approach where the candidates in the Pareto front are selected within categories close to the target proposed. As a test case a military trainer aircraft was designed target to perform the proper transition from basic to advanced training. The methodology for conceptual aircraft design optimization implemented in this work consisted on the integration of techniques such statistical entropy, quality function deployment (QFD), arithmetic fuzzy and genetic algorithm (GA) to the weighted multidisciplinary design optimization (WMDO). This methodology proved to be objective and well balanced when compared with traditional design techniques.

La thèse est principalement centrée sur l'étude de la résolution verticale des diagraphies. On outre, l'arithmétique floue est appliquée aux modèles expérimentaux pétrophysiques en vue de transmettre l'incertitude des données d'entrée aux données de sortie, ici la saturation irréductible en eau et la perméabilité. Les diagraphies sont des signaux digitaux dont les données sont des mesures volumétriques. Le mécanisme d'enregistrement de ces données est modélisé par des fonctions d'appartenance floues. On a montré que la Résolution Verticale de la Fonction d'Appartenance (VRmf) est supérieur d'espacement. Dans l'étape suivante, la fréquence de Nyquist est revue en fonction du mécanisme volumétrique de diagraphie ; de ce fait, la fréquence volumétrique de Nyquist est proposée afin d'analyser la précision des diagraphies. Basé sur le modèle de résolution verticale développée, un simulateur géométrique est conçu pour générer les registres synthétiques d'une seule couche mince. Le simulateur nous permet d'analyser la sensibilité des diagraphies en présence d'une couche mince. Les relations de régression entre les registres idéaux (données d'entrée de ce simulateur) et les registres synthétiques (données de sortie de ce simulateur) sont utilisées comme relations de déconvolution en vue d'enlever l'effet des épaules de couche d'une couche mince sur les diagraphies GR, RHOB et NPHI. Les relations de déconvolution ont bien été appliquées aux diagraphies pour caractériser les couches minces. Par exemple, pour caractériser une couche mince poreuse, on a eu recours aux données de carottage qui étaient disponibles pour la vérification : NPHI mesuré (3.8%) a été remplacé (corrigé) par 11.7%. NPHI corrigé semble être plus précis que NPHI mesuré, car la diagraphie a une valeur plus grande que la porosité de carottage (8.4%). Il convient de rappeler que la porosité totale (NPHI) ne doit pas être inférieure à la porosité effective (carottage). En plus, l'épaisseur de la couche mince a été estimée à 13±7.5 cm, compatible avec l'épaisseur de la couche mince dans la boite de carottage (<25 cm). Normalement, l'épaisseur in situ est inférieure à l'épaisseur de la boite de carottage, parce que les carottes obtenues ne sont plus soumises à la pression lithostatique, et s'érodent à la surface du sol. La DST est appliquée aux diagraphies, et l'intervalle d'incertitude de DST est construit. Tandis que la VRmf des diagraphies GR, RHOB, NPHI et DT est ~60 cm, la VRmf de l'intervalle d'incertitude est ~15 cm. Or, on a perdu l'incertitude de la valeur de diagraphie, alors que la VRmf est devenue plus précise. Les diagraphies ont été ensuite corrigées entre l'intervalle d'incertitude de DST avec quatre simulateurs. Les hautes fréquences sont amplifiées dans les diagraphies corrigées, et l'effet des épaules de couche est réduit. La méthode proposée est vérifiée dans les cas synthétiques, la boite de carottage et la porosité de carotte. L'analyse de partitionnement est appliquée aux diagraphies NPHI, RHOB et DT en vue de trouver l'intervalle d'incertitude, basé sur les grappes. Puis, le NPHI est calibré par la porosité de carottes dans chaque grappe. Le √MSE de NPHI calibré est plus bas par rapport aux cinq modèles conventionnels d'estimation de la porosité (au minimum 33% d'amélioration du √MSE). Le √MSE de généralisation de la méthode proposée entre les puits voisins est augmenté de 42%. L'intervalle d'incertitude de la porosité est exprimé par les nombres flous. L'arithmétique floue est ensuite appliquée dans le but de calculer les nombres flous de la saturation irréductible en eau et de la perméabilité. Le nombre flou de la saturation irréductible en eau apporte de meilleurs résultats en termes de moindre sous-estimation par rapport à l'estimation nette. Il est constaté que lorsque les intervalles de grappes de porosité ne sont pas compatibles avec la porosité de carotte, les nombres flous de la perméabilité ne sont pas valables. / In the subsurface geology, characterization of geological beds by well-logs is an uncertain task. The thesis mainly concerns studying vertical resolution of well-logs (question 1). In the second stage, fuzzy arithmetic is applied to experimental petrophysical relations to project the uncertainty range of the inputs to the outputs, here irreducible water saturation and permeability (question 2). Regarding the first question, the logging mechanism is modelled by fuzzy membership functions. Vertical resolution of membership function (VRmf) is larger than spacing and sampling rate. Due to volumetric mechanism of logging, volumetric Nyquist frequency is proposed. Developing a geometric simulator for generating synthetic-logs of a single thin-bed enabled us analysing sensitivity of the well-logs to the presence of a thin-bed. Regression-based relations between ideal-logs (simulator inputs) and synthetic-logs (simulator outputs) are used as deconvolution relations for removing shoulder-bed effect of thin-beds from GR, RHOB and NPHI well-logs. NPHI deconvolution relation is applied to a real case where the core porosity of a thin-bed is 8.4%. The NPHI well-log is 3.8%, and the deconvolved NPHI is 11.7%. Since it is not reasonable that the core porosity (effective porosity) be higher than the NPHI (total porosity), the deconvolved NPHI is more accurate than the NPHI well-log. It reveals that the shoulder-bed effect is reduced in this case. The thickness of the same thin-bed was also estimated to be 13±7.5 cm, which is compatible with the thickness of the thin-bed in the core box (<25 cm). Usually, in situ thickness is less than the thickness of the core boxes, since at the earth surface, there is no overburden pressure, also the cores are weathered. Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) was used to create well-log uncertainty range. While the VRmf of the well-logs is more than 60 cm, the VRmf of the belief and plausibility functions (boundaries of the uncertainty range) would be about 15 cm. So, the VRmf is improved, while the certainty of the well-log value is lost. In comparison with geometric method, DST-based algorithm resulted in a smaller uncertainty range of GR, RHOB and NPHI logs by 100%, 71% and 66%, respectively. In the next step, cluster analysis is applied to NPHI, RHOB and DT for the purpose of providing cluster-based uncertainty range. Then, NPHI is calibrated by core porosity value in each cluster, showing low √MSE compared to the five conventional porosity estimation models (at least 33% of improvement in √MSE). Then, fuzzy arithmetic is applied to calculate fuzzy numbers of irreducible water saturation and permeability. Fuzzy number of irreducible water saturation provides better (less overestimation) results than the crisp estimation. It is found that when the cluster interval of porosity is not compatible with the core porosity, the permeability fuzzy numbers are not valid, e.g. in well#4. Finally, in the possibilistic approach (the fuzzy theory), by calibrating α-cut, the right uncertainty interval could be achieved, concerning the scale of the study.

In arid regions, mountain catchments are the major contributor to the total natural water yield. Due to generally low groundwater tables, subsurface underflow - referred to as mountain-front recharge - is important in distinction to the surface runoff at the mountain front. The extent of the groundwater basin is hereby often vague. Approaches to assess mountain-front recharge are mostly based on groundwater data and integrate over time and space. This, however, cannot provide prognostic and time-dependent estimates of subsurface inflow to the adjacent alluvial basin aquifer. Consequently, the proposed strategy builds on rainfall based approaches. Temporal and spatial resolution is in this case mostly limited by data scarcity regarding hydrological characteristics of the catchment area and high-resolution rainfall data. The proposed novel strategy combines three approaches to tackle these challenges. A newly developed conceptual hydrologic model provides time-dependent estimates based on fully distributed monthly rainfall. For distinct response units and seasons, non-linear relationships between rainfall and recharge describe the hydrogeologic response. The derivation of the response functions is based on a mass balance and considers the principal recharge mechanisms. Parameterisation makes use of available expert knowledge on geomorphology and seasonal rainfall characteristics. As an efficient tool to assess uncertainties, fuzzy arithmetic is used for complementary long-term average water balance estimates. This technique allows considering fuzziness in rainfall input, crop water use in mountain oases, and best available assumptions on recharge as portion of rainfall. Uncertainty regarding the potential, albeit unknown extent of groundwater basins is portrayed based on continuous surfaces which represent the degree of membership to a distinct geographical entity (termed as fuzzy regions). Distinct subsets of these fuzzy regions represent potential groundwater basins for water balance assessment. The proposed strategy was applied on the large scale in an arid karst mountain range in northern Oman. The two complementary assessment approaches result in similar ranges of values. They are in good agreement with inversely computed inflow to a steady state groundwater model for the adjacent basin aquifer. The results of the conceptual hydrologic model are confirmed by the plausibility of average recharge rates for distinct response units and seasons. This shows that less intense winter rainfall contributes mainly to groundwater recharge. Uncertainties due to the vague extent of the groundwater basin are about 30 % of the total mean annual value. An option to mitigate this uncertainty is the complementary consideration of adjacent aquifer systems in future studies. Hydrogeologic survey and observation of groundwater levels in the alluvial basin aquifer in near distance to the mountains is a way to underpin these findings in future studies. This recommenddation applies not only to the discussed study area, but also to mountain block systems in general. / In ariden Gebieten haben Gebirgseinzugsgebiete einen wesentlichen Anteil am gesamten natürlichen Wasserdargebot. Aufgrund i. Allg. tief liegender Grundwasserspiegel ist - in Abgrenzung zum Oberflächenabfluss am Gebirgsrand - auch der unterirdische Abstrom (mountain-front recharge) von besonderer Bedeutung. Die Ausdehnung des unterirdischen Einzugsgebiets ist dabei oft vage. Ansätze zur Abschätzung des mountain-front recharge basieren meist auf Grundwasserdaten und integrieren in Zeit und Raum. Damit können allerdings keine prognostischen oder zeitabhängigen Schätzungen für den Zustrom zur benachbarten alluvialen Aquifer gemacht werden. Daher wird im folgenden ein niederschlagsbasierter Ansatz vorgeschlagen. Das vorgeschlagene neue Konzept kombiniert drei Ansätze, um den genannten Herausforderungen zu begegnen. Mit einem neu entwickelten konzeptionellen hydrologischen Modell auf Basis verteilter Niederschläge werden monatliche Werte für die Grundwasserneubildung bereitgestellt. Es basiert auf nicht-linearen Beziehungen zwischen Niederschlag und Grundwasserneubildung für definierte hydrologisch homogene Einheiten und Jahreszeiten. Deren Ableitung basiert auf einer Massenbilanz und berücksichtigt die wesentlichen Neubildungsmechanismen. Die Parametrisierung basiert auf Expertenwissen zu Geomorphologie und Niederschlagscharakteristika. Fuzzy Arithmetik wird zur Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten in einer ergänzenden mittleren jährlichen Wasserbilanz verwendet. Damit können Unschärfen im Niederschlagsinput, beim Pflanzenwasserbedarf in Gebirgsoasen und best verfügbaren Schätzungen der Neubildung als Bruchteil des Niederschlags effizient berücksichtigt werden. Mittels kontinuierlicher Oberflächen, die den Grad der Zugehörigkeit zu einer bestimmten geographischen Entität anzeigen (fuzzy regions) werden Unsicherheiten in der räumlichen Ausdehnung der unterirdischen Einzugsgebiete beschrieben. Definierte Teilmengen dieser fuzzy regions werden dann bei den Wasserhaushaltsbetrachtungen als potentielle Grundwassereinzugsgebiete verwendet. Der vorgeschlagene Ansatz wurde in einer ariden, teils verkarsteten Gebirgsregion im Norden des Sultanats Oman angewendet. Die beiden sich ergänzenden Ansätze zur Abschätzung der Grundwasserneubildung ergaben im langjährigen Mittel vergleichbare Werte. Diese stimmten auch gut mit den Ergebnissen einer inversen Grundwassermodellierung überein. Die Plausibilität der Neubildungsraten für bestimmte hydrologisch homogene Einheiten und Jahreszeiten spricht für die Verlässlichkeit der Ergebnisse des konzeptionellen hydrologischen Modells. Offensichtlich tragen insbesondere die weniger intensiven Winterniederschläge wesentlich zur Grundwasserneubildung bei. Die Unsicherheiten bezüglich der Ausdehnung des Grundwassereinzugsgebiets belaufen sich auf ca. 30 % des mittleren jährlichen Dargebots. Die komplementäre Betrachtung benachbarter Grundwassereinzugsgebiete ist ein denkbarer Weg, diese Unsicherheit in Zukunft zu reduzieren. Ein wesentlicher Beitrag um die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zukünftig weiter zu untermauern wären hydrogeologische Erkundung und Beobachtung von Grundwasserständen im alluvialen Aquifer, insbesondere nahe dem Gebirgsrand. Diese Empfehlung gilt über dieses Fallbeispiel hinaus für vergleichbare Systeme, in denen ein Gebirgseinzugsgebiet den Aquifer in der angrenzende Ebene speist.

In arid regions, mountain catchments are the major contributor to the total natural water yield. Due to generally low groundwater tables, subsurface underflow - referred to as mountain-front recharge - is important in distinction to the surface runoff at the mountain front. The extent of the groundwater basin is hereby often vague. Approaches to assess mountain-front recharge are mostly based on groundwater data and integrate over time and space. This, however, cannot provide prognostic and time-dependent estimates of subsurface inflow to the adjacent alluvial basin aquifer. Consequently, the proposed strategy builds on rainfall based approaches. Temporal and spatial resolution is in this case mostly limited by data scarcity regarding hydrological characteristics of the catchment area and high-resolution rainfall data. The proposed novel strategy combines three approaches to tackle these challenges. A newly developed conceptual hydrologic model provides time-dependent estimates based on fully distributed monthly rainfall. For distinct response units and seasons, non-linear relationships between rainfall and recharge describe the hydrogeologic response. The derivation of the response functions is based on a mass balance and considers the principal recharge mechanisms. Parameterisation makes use of available expert knowledge on geomorphology and seasonal rainfall characteristics. As an efficient tool to assess uncertainties, fuzzy arithmetic is used for complementary long-term average water balance estimates. This technique allows considering fuzziness in rainfall input, crop water use in mountain oases, and best available assumptions on recharge as portion of rainfall. Uncertainty regarding the potential, albeit unknown extent of groundwater basins is portrayed based on continuous surfaces which represent the degree of membership to a distinct geographical entity (termed as fuzzy regions). Distinct subsets of these fuzzy regions represent potential groundwater basins for water balance assessment. The proposed strategy was applied on the large scale in an arid karst mountain range in northern Oman. The two complementary assessment approaches result in similar ranges of values. They are in good agreement with inversely computed inflow to a steady state groundwater model for the adjacent basin aquifer. The results of the conceptual hydrologic model are confirmed by the plausibility of average recharge rates for distinct response units and seasons. This shows that less intense winter rainfall contributes mainly to groundwater recharge. Uncertainties due to the vague extent of the groundwater basin are about 30 % of the total mean annual value. An option to mitigate this uncertainty is the complementary consideration of adjacent aquifer systems in future studies. Hydrogeologic survey and observation of groundwater levels in the alluvial basin aquifer in near distance to the mountains is a way to underpin these findings in future studies. This recommenddation applies not only to the discussed study area, but also to mountain block systems in general.:1 Mountains - 'water towers' for water resources systems in arid regions 2 Mountain hydrology and water resources assessment 2.1 Mountain hydrology and mountain-front recharge 2.2 Essential aspects to advance mountain hydrology 2.2.1 Rainfall characteristics and options for data acquisition 2.2.2 Groundwater-surface water interactions and availability of reference values 2.3 Approaches to the assessment of mountain-front recharge 2.3.1 Options to assess groundwater recharge 2.3.2 Arid zone water balance modelling - options and limitations 2.3.3 Key components for assessing mountain-front recharge 2.4 Linear reservoir models to describe base flow recession 3 Approaches to deal with uncertainty with a special focus on fuzzy sets 3.1 Probability based uncertainty assessment versus fuzzy reasoning 3.2 Fuzzy sets and related methods 3.3 Ranges of application in hydrology and water resources management 4 A novel strategy for estimating groundwater recharge in arid mountain regions 5 Fuzzy-based tools to portray uncertainties in water balance assessment 5.1 Fuzzy Recharge Areas: From qualitative data to quantitative conclusions 5.1.1 The concept of the Fuzzy Recharge Areas 5.1.2 Consideration of adjacent basins 5.2 Water balance assessment based on fuzzy arithmetic 5.2.1 Outline of the calculation procedure 5.2.2 Implementation of the fuzzy arithmetic operators 5.2.3 Implementation of the regionalisation approach APLIS 6 A conceptual hydrologic model to assess mountain-front recharge 6.1 Basic idea 6.2 Model structure 6.3 Calculation procedure using histograms of rainfall depths 6.4 Non-linear seasonal rainfall-recharge relationships 6.4.1 Derivation of the rainfall-recharge relationships 6.4.2 Sensitivity analysis 6.4.3 Response functions based on extreme parameter sets 6.5 Subsurface routing based on linear reservoir models 7 Case Study: Groundwater recharge assessment for the Barka Region (Oman) 7.1 Study area 7.1.1 Topography 7.1.2 Climate 7.1.3 Evapotranspiration 7.1.4 Rainfall characteristics 7.1.5 Geology and Hydrogeology 7.1.6 Soils 7.1.7 Runoff characteristics 7.1.8 Vegetation and irrigated agriculture in mountain oases 7.2 Recharge mechanisms in the study area 7.3 Assessment of mountain-front recharge - Methodology 7.3.1 Data Processing of Fuzzy Recharge Areas 7.3.2 Determining response units 7.3.3 Water use in mountain oases 7.3.4 Long-term average considerations based on fuzzy arithmetic 7.3.5 Time-dependent assessment using the conceptual hydrologic model 7.4 Assessment of mountain-front recharge - Results 7.4.1 Long-term average considerations 7.4.2 Time-dependent estimates 7.5 Consideration of uncertainties 7.6 Discussion & Conclusions 7.6.1 Water resources assessment in the study area 7.6.2 Modelling approaches 8 Summary 9 Prospects for future work List of Figures List of Tables List of Symbols List of Abbreviations Appendix A: Sensitivity of the response function to variations of the different model parameters B: Histograms of subsurface outflow at the mountain front QMFR based on different parameterisations of the conceptual hydrologic model References / In ariden Gebieten haben Gebirgseinzugsgebiete einen wesentlichen Anteil am gesamten natürlichen Wasserdargebot. Aufgrund i. Allg. tief liegender Grundwasserspiegel ist - in Abgrenzung zum Oberflächenabfluss am Gebirgsrand - auch der unterirdische Abstrom (mountain-front recharge) von besonderer Bedeutung. Die Ausdehnung des unterirdischen Einzugsgebiets ist dabei oft vage. Ansätze zur Abschätzung des mountain-front recharge basieren meist auf Grundwasserdaten und integrieren in Zeit und Raum. Damit können allerdings keine prognostischen oder zeitabhängigen Schätzungen für den Zustrom zur benachbarten alluvialen Aquifer gemacht werden. Daher wird im folgenden ein niederschlagsbasierter Ansatz vorgeschlagen. Das vorgeschlagene neue Konzept kombiniert drei Ansätze, um den genannten Herausforderungen zu begegnen. Mit einem neu entwickelten konzeptionellen hydrologischen Modell auf Basis verteilter Niederschläge werden monatliche Werte für die Grundwasserneubildung bereitgestellt. Es basiert auf nicht-linearen Beziehungen zwischen Niederschlag und Grundwasserneubildung für definierte hydrologisch homogene Einheiten und Jahreszeiten. Deren Ableitung basiert auf einer Massenbilanz und berücksichtigt die wesentlichen Neubildungsmechanismen. Die Parametrisierung basiert auf Expertenwissen zu Geomorphologie und Niederschlagscharakteristika. Fuzzy Arithmetik wird zur Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten in einer ergänzenden mittleren jährlichen Wasserbilanz verwendet. Damit können Unschärfen im Niederschlagsinput, beim Pflanzenwasserbedarf in Gebirgsoasen und best verfügbaren Schätzungen der Neubildung als Bruchteil des Niederschlags effizient berücksichtigt werden. Mittels kontinuierlicher Oberflächen, die den Grad der Zugehörigkeit zu einer bestimmten geographischen Entität anzeigen (fuzzy regions) werden Unsicherheiten in der räumlichen Ausdehnung der unterirdischen Einzugsgebiete beschrieben. Definierte Teilmengen dieser fuzzy regions werden dann bei den Wasserhaushaltsbetrachtungen als potentielle Grundwassereinzugsgebiete verwendet. Der vorgeschlagene Ansatz wurde in einer ariden, teils verkarsteten Gebirgsregion im Norden des Sultanats Oman angewendet. Die beiden sich ergänzenden Ansätze zur Abschätzung der Grundwasserneubildung ergaben im langjährigen Mittel vergleichbare Werte. Diese stimmten auch gut mit den Ergebnissen einer inversen Grundwassermodellierung überein. Die Plausibilität der Neubildungsraten für bestimmte hydrologisch homogene Einheiten und Jahreszeiten spricht für die Verlässlichkeit der Ergebnisse des konzeptionellen hydrologischen Modells. Offensichtlich tragen insbesondere die weniger intensiven Winterniederschläge wesentlich zur Grundwasserneubildung bei. Die Unsicherheiten bezüglich der Ausdehnung des Grundwassereinzugsgebiets belaufen sich auf ca. 30 % des mittleren jährlichen Dargebots. Die komplementäre Betrachtung benachbarter Grundwassereinzugsgebiete ist ein denkbarer Weg, diese Unsicherheit in Zukunft zu reduzieren. Ein wesentlicher Beitrag um die Ergebnisse dieser Studie zukünftig weiter zu untermauern wären hydrogeologische Erkundung und Beobachtung von Grundwasserständen im alluvialen Aquifer, insbesondere nahe dem Gebirgsrand. Diese Empfehlung gilt über dieses Fallbeispiel hinaus für vergleichbare Systeme, in denen ein Gebirgseinzugsgebiet den Aquifer in der angrenzende Ebene speist.:1 Mountains - 'water towers' for water resources systems in arid regions 2 Mountain hydrology and water resources assessment 2.1 Mountain hydrology and mountain-front recharge 2.2 Essential aspects to advance mountain hydrology 2.2.1 Rainfall characteristics and options for data acquisition 2.2.2 Groundwater-surface water interactions and availability of reference values 2.3 Approaches to the assessment of mountain-front recharge 2.3.1 Options to assess groundwater recharge 2.3.2 Arid zone water balance modelling - options and limitations 2.3.3 Key components for assessing mountain-front recharge 2.4 Linear reservoir models to describe base flow recession 3 Approaches to deal with uncertainty with a special focus on fuzzy sets 3.1 Probability based uncertainty assessment versus fuzzy reasoning 3.2 Fuzzy sets and related methods 3.3 Ranges of application in hydrology and water resources management 4 A novel strategy for estimating groundwater recharge in arid mountain regions 5 Fuzzy-based tools to portray uncertainties in water balance assessment 5.1 Fuzzy Recharge Areas: From qualitative data to quantitative conclusions 5.1.1 The concept of the Fuzzy Recharge Areas 5.1.2 Consideration of adjacent basins 5.2 Water balance assessment based on fuzzy arithmetic 5.2.1 Outline of the calculation procedure 5.2.2 Implementation of the fuzzy arithmetic operators 5.2.3 Implementation of the regionalisation approach APLIS 6 A conceptual hydrologic model to assess mountain-front recharge 6.1 Basic idea 6.2 Model structure 6.3 Calculation procedure using histograms of rainfall depths 6.4 Non-linear seasonal rainfall-recharge relationships 6.4.1 Derivation of the rainfall-recharge relationships 6.4.2 Sensitivity analysis 6.4.3 Response functions based on extreme parameter sets 6.5 Subsurface routing based on linear reservoir models 7 Case Study: Groundwater recharge assessment for the Barka Region (Oman) 7.1 Study area 7.1.1 Topography 7.1.2 Climate 7.1.3 Evapotranspiration 7.1.4 Rainfall characteristics 7.1.5 Geology and Hydrogeology 7.1.6 Soils 7.1.7 Runoff characteristics 7.1.8 Vegetation and irrigated agriculture in mountain oases 7.2 Recharge mechanisms in the study area 7.3 Assessment of mountain-front recharge - Methodology 7.3.1 Data Processing of Fuzzy Recharge Areas 7.3.2 Determining response units 7.3.3 Water use in mountain oases 7.3.4 Long-term average considerations based on fuzzy arithmetic 7.3.5 Time-dependent assessment using the conceptual hydrologic model 7.4 Assessment of mountain-front recharge - Results 7.4.1 Long-term average considerations 7.4.2 Time-dependent estimates 7.5 Consideration of uncertainties 7.6 Discussion & Conclusions 7.6.1 Water resources assessment in the study area 7.6.2 Modelling approaches 8 Summary 9 Prospects for future work List of Figures List of Tables List of Symbols List of Abbreviations Appendix A: Sensitivity of the response function to variations of the different model parameters B: Histograms of subsurface outflow at the mountain front QMFR based on different parameterisations of the conceptual hydrologic model References