Health is one of the most important components of human capital. It can affect production level of a country through various channels. In this study the causal relationship of health and real GDP per capita income in 5 low income countries of Africa south of the Sahara is analyzed using granger causality test. Unbalanced panel data set during the year 1970 to 2009 is used. Life expectancy and mortality rate are used as a proxy for health. The result revealed that mortality rate has a significant and negative impact on real per capita income. The Granger causality test showed, real GDP per capita and mortality rate have causal or bidirectional relationship. On the other hand, real GDP per capita does not granger cause life expectancy, but life expectancy granger cause real GDP per capita. The comparative descriptive analysis of the health indicators in different income groups of the world also showed that, higher income countries are better off in their health status.

Exports are an important source of income for Sweden. They are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as GDP. This paper examines the elasticity of Swedish export to changes in the GDP of Sweden’s 25 most important export partners. The sensitivity to changes in GDP, the elasticity, can be different for different goods. Therefore, we examine export elasticities for five different commodity groups, which include durable as well as non-durable goods. Moreover, special focus is put on the trade relationship between Sweden and Germany in order to see if their long common trade history has any impact on the elasticity of Swedish exports to Germany. The analysis is based on an export demand function that links exports to GDP and geographical distance. We include dummy variables in our regression model to control for EU-membership and common borders.       For Swedish exports to Germany, we find that exports of food and live animals are least elastic, whereas exports of machinery and transport equipment are most elastic. This is coherent with previous empirical findings about demand elasticities of non-durable and durable goods. We find that exports in two out of five commodity groups are unit elastic. This means that when German GDP increases by one percent, Sweden’s export to Germany in these commodity groups also grows by approximately one percent. Thus, Sweden is not able to capture additional profit through over proportional increases in exports to Germany. For Swedish exports to its 25 most important trading partners, on average, we find that exports of manufactured goods as well as machinery and transport equipment are the least elastic exports. This gives them the lowest growth potential.

GDP and GDP per capita are widely used to gauge for living standards across countries. However, they have originally not been constructed for this purpose and are therefore subject to significant limitations. This paper aims at developing a better and non-monetary development index with which cross-country living standards can be assessed. This index, the BDI, can then be utilized for policy making. When constructing the BDI, this study utilizes time series analysis and panel unit root tests. A major finding of this study is that the BDI does indeed produce statistically significantly different results/ rankings for a special set of countries, compared to GDP and GDP per capita.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.

China´s ongoing transformation into a consumer-driven economy, could this influence the Swedish society in more ways than just the economic? The purpose of this study is to contribute with qualitative research examples for further research in order to shed some light on, or give significant insights into how contemporary and emerging relations between China and Sweden might influence Swedish society and culture. This study seeks to find a understanding if there is a connection between household consumption expenditure growth and the rise of the middle class in China which might be related to the structural transition to a modern consumer economy, and if this in turn can impact Swedish society in more ways than just the economic in a globalization perspective. The methodology choice for this study is a Sociological exploratory approach with qualitative semi-structured expert interviews. The study shows that the Swedish society could be affected in more unprecedented ways than just the economic.

<p>This thesis attempts to establish what determines financial development in Africa by making use of cross sectional and panel data techniques. Financial development, the dependent variable, is measured using the banking sector indicator liquid liabilities (M3) while trade openness, financial openness and the GDP growth rates are used as independent variables. The data used in this research ranges from 1975-200, though for the cross sectional analysis particular years (1975, 1985, 1995, and 2005) are focused on.</p><p>The empirical results from both regression types generally suggest that trade openness has a significantly positive effect on Africa’s financial development. Cross-sectional results show that financial openness and the GDP growth rate are significantly negative in 2005. With the panel data results, financial openness is significantly negative in explaining financial development, while the GDP growth rate is insignificant suggesting that it is not an important determinant of financial development for African countries.</p>

<p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.</p>

The topic of insider/director trading raises interesting questions and has generated much attention from researchers, market participants and regulators. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the long-run director trading performance in the UK market. It examines relationship between aggregate director trading and indicators of the UK macroeconomy focus on the macro-aspects in Chapter 4 and 5. The extant empirical literature on aggregate director trading can be categorized into two parts: the first is the relationship between director trading and the stock market; and the second is the link between stock returns and future aggregate economic activities. Having examined the macro-picture, it goes to examine a more micro-picture. Chapter 6 examines long-run relationship between director trading and market reactions. This thesis is organized around three research studies which are presented in Chapters 4, 5 and 6 and which examine long-run director trading activities in the UK. Chapters 4 and 5 together investigate the evidence for director trading activities and the macroeconomy. There is little literature on aggregate director trading and the macro-economy: therefore Chapter 4 examines the relationship between aggregate director trading and future market excess returns. Empirical evidence is presented which demonstrates that the returns on stock market are significantly correlated to future economic growth. Chapter 5 then examines whether the forecasting ability can be improved by adding aggregate director trading as a measurement of business confidence into the forecasting model. Chapter 6 examines the long-run performance of market reaction to director roles. In order to examine the relationship between aggregate director trading and the macro-economy, the link between aggregate director trading and future market excess returns is investigated. This thesis considers the importance of the seasonality issue in UK director trading and employs a number of alternative seasonality adjustments to adjust the raw data on aggregate director trading. The positive correlation between aggregate director trading and future market excess returns is confirmed and evidence is provided that indicates directors are contrarian: in aggregate they purchase (sell) their own-company stock prior to general stock market increases (decreases). In the long-run, the empirical work demonstrates that aggregate director trading has forecasting power in terms of predicting future stock market excess returns. Additional findings are that aggregate director trading in large firms has a positive significant predictive ability for identifying future excess returns of large firms and aggregate director trading of some industries has positive significant forecasting ability for future excess returns of these industries. Having confirmed the relationship between aggregate director trading and future market movement, this thesis turns to examine the link between aggregate director trading and future UK economic growth. It measures economic growth of future real economic activity by the change in gross domestic product (GDP) and it documents a strong correlation between past aggregate director trading and future real economic activity. The predictability of future economic growth increases with both the length of forecasting horizon and past net number of director trading. In a multivariate regression analysis this thesis finds that aggregate director trading retains predicting power with respect to future GDP growth even after including popular business cycle variables (dividend yield of FTSE All share, growth rate of industrial production and term spread) as explanatory variables. This finding suggests that aggregate director trading captures things related to changes in real activity but not captured by market factors (Fama-French 3 factors: SMB, HML and RMRF) and business cycle variables. After examining the relationship between aggregate director trading, market returns and changes in GDP, the last empirical Chapter of the thesis concentrates director trading on the micro-aspects of director trading and stock movement. It examines the stock market reaction to director trading with firm characteristics and the effects of director trading pattern. Using long-run calendar-time abnormal returns (CTAR) methodology with Fama-French 3-factor model, evidence is presented that directors do have more valuable information allowing them to make significant abnormal returns than other market participants, the performance of CFOs supports the information hierarchy hypothesis in 1- and 6-month post-purchase trading time, and the director trading with firm characteristics has a significant effect on stock abnormal returns.

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Besivystančių rinkų šalyse, kur jų makroekonominiai rodikliai turi didelės ir lemtingos įtakos kreditų reitingų rezultatams, nuo kurių priklauso užsienio rinkų atsakas į valstybės poreikį pasiskolinti, būtina objektyviai ir laiku vertinti šalių būsenas bei galimybes laiku ir tinkamai vykdyti prisiimtus įsipareigojimus. Darbo tema – Lietuvos ir Islandijos užsienio skolos lyginamoji analizė 2000 – 2010 m. Tyrimo problema – augančios valstybės užsienio skolos priežasčių lyginamoji analizė. Darbo objektas – Lietuvos ir Islandijos valdžios užsienio skola 2000 – 2010 m. Tyrimo tikslas – atlikus statistinių duomenų lyginamąją analizę, įvertinti Lietuvos valdžios užsienio skolos įtaką valstybės stabilumui Islandijos atžvilgiu. Tyrimo hipotezė - Valstybę prie finansų stabilumo krizės priveda ne jos grynosios skolos perviršis, bet valstybės prisiimami įsipareigojimai užsienio kreditoriams, kurie pareikalavę skolų grąžinimo, valstybę galėtų privesti prie nemokumo ribos. Darbo metodika - dokumentų analizė: autorių darbų ir straipsnių teorinė analizė, statistinių duomenų analizė; Lietuvos valdžios skolos pokyčių 2000-2010 m. analizė; Lietuvos ir Islandijos valdžios užsienio skolų 2000 – 2010 m. lyginamoji analizė . Darbo tikslas lėmė tokią darbo struktūrą: teorinėje dalyje apžvelgta valstybės skolos reikšmė, skolos struktūra, priežastys lemiančios skolos formavimą; antroje darbo dalyje vertinami kreditų reitingų agentūrų suteikti kreditų reitingai Lietuvai, Lietuvos skolos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Objective and timely evaluation of the situation and possibilities to timely and properly meet the commitments is necessary in the countries with developing markets, where macroeconomic indicators have significant influence on the results of credit ratings that predetermine the foreign markets’ response to the country’s need to borrow. Thesis topic: Lithuania and Iceland‘s Government foreign debt comparative analysis of 2000-2010. Research problem: Comparative analysis of reasons for growing national foreign debt. Thesis subject: Lithuania and Iceland‘s Government foreign debt of 2000-2010. Research objective: to evaluate the influence of the Lithuanian Government foreign debt on the country’s stability with respect to Iceland by carrying out comparative analysis of statistical data. Research hypothesis: It is not the country’s net debt surplus that leads the state to financial stability crisis but the country’s commitments made to foreign creditors who may lead the state to insolvency by demanding debt repayment. Thesis methods: analysis of documents: theoretical analysis of the authors’ works and articles, statistical data analysis; analysis of changes in the Lithuanian Government foreign debt in 2000-2010; Lithuania and Iceland‘s Government foreign debt comparative analysis of 2000-2010. The objective of the thesis determined the following thesis structure: the importance of national debt, its structure and reasons for debt formation are reviewed in the... [to full text]