L'Himalaya résultant de la collision indo-asiatique, dans laquelle l'Inde plonge sous le Tibet, initie régulièrement des tremblements de terre destructeurs dont la plupart sont mortel pour les communautés népalaises et limitrophes. Telle une muraille séparant les plaines d’Inde et le haut plateau du Tibet, l’Himalaya façonne la circulation atmosphérique, affectant tant le climat régional que global. Cette thèse vise à se pencher sur l'histoire et l'évolution peu connue du climat et de la sismicité de l'Himalaya, dans une des régions les moins peuplées et la plus reculées du Népal occidental. Dans le contexte de changements climatiques et environnementaux, l'un des aspects les moins bien élucidés de l'histoire de l'Himalaya au cours du Quaternaire supérieur est celui de l'extension des glaciers ainsi que leurs impacts sur l'évolution du paysage. En nous appuyant sur des observations de terrain, sur des datations par nucléides cosmogéniques (10Be) ainsi que des observations satellitaires, nous avons pu estimer l'étendue maximale des glaciers durant le dernier maximum glaciaire. Soutenant ainsi l'hypothèse suivant laquelle la présence de glacier fut relativement plus étendue à l'échelle du Népal occidental mais pas de l’ordre d’une calotte glaciaire. Sur le plan sismologique, l’enjeu à la fois sociale, économique et politique de l’occurrence d’un séisme de magnitude plus élevée que le récent séisme de 2015 dont l’épicentre se situe près de la ville de Gorkha constitue une préoccupation majeure et motive en grande partie cette thèse. Le dernier séisme majeur ayant rompu le Main Frontal Thrust de magnitude supérieure à 8 (Mb) s’est déroulé le 6 juin 1505 et a considérablement impacté la population népalaise et environnante. Le caractère singulier du Népal occidental s’exprimant ainsi par l’hypothèse de la présence d’un hiatus sismique s’étendant sur plus de 500 ans sur base d’archives historiques et d’études paléosismologiques. Dans cette perspective, cette thèse se penche sur deux questions majeures relatives au comportement sismique de l'Himalaya : d'une part, l'hypothèse d'une lacune sismique dans l'Himalaya central et, d'autre part, de la distribution temporelle des séismes au cours de la fin du Quaternaire. A cette fin, une nouvelle approche de recherche, indépendamment du recours aux tranchées paléosismiques, a été mise en œuvre en Himalaya. En utilisant les lacs comme paleoseismomètre, au travers de la collecte de carottes sédimentaires, nous avons pu affiner la résolution temporelle et déceler des séismes à ce jours non répertorié dans les basses de données accessible et ce sur une échelle de 700 ans. La mise en évidence de séismes important (Mw>6.5) non répertorié indique que le Népal occidental connait une activité sismique comparable au centre du Népal et remet en question l’hypothèse d’un gap sismique au centre de l’Himalaya. Sur base d'une carotte sédimentaire plus longue provenant du même lac, nous avons étudié la distribution temporelle des séismes sur une période de 6000 ans, permettant ainsi de mettre en évidence le caractère aléatoire de l’occurrence des séismes constituant un changement de paradigme là où notion de cycle sismique est encore prépondérante. La mise en évidence du caractère aléatoire de l’occurrence des séismes tant à courte échelle de temps (instrumentale) qu’à l’échelle du Quaternaire infirme l’hypothèse du gap sismique au centre de l’Himalaya et mets en évidence le risque permanent pour le million de personnes concernées. Cette thèse s’achève en se penchant sur une possible relation à l’échelle globale entre la variation de taux de séismicité et les changements climatiques au cours de l’Holocène. Nous constatons ainsi que la sismicité globale connu des périodes de séismes accrue sur 7000 ans. Ces périodes de plus fortes activités semblent être synchrone avec la somme des avancées glaciaires de l'Holocène moyen et supérieur. / The Himalayan collision, in which India underthrusts below Tibet, regularly produces major destructive earthquakes in Nepal and its neighboring countries, most of which are fatal to nearby communities. As a wall dividing the Indian plains and the Tibetan plateau, the Himalaya also significantly modifies the atmospheric circulation, affecting both the local and global climate. This thesis explores the poorly known Quaternary history and evolution of Himalayan climate and seismicity, more particularly in the least populated and most remote region of Western Nepal. In terms of climate and environmental change, one of the least understood aspects of Himalayan history during the late Quaternary is the extension of glaciers and their impacts on landscape evolution. Based on field observations, cosmogenic nuclide dating (10Be) and satellite observations, we estimated the maximum extent of glaciers during the Last Glacial Maximum, which supports the hypothesis of a relatively large glacier cover, but not of an extended ice cap, at the scale of Western Nepal. In terms of seismology, the social, economic and political implications of the occurrence of an earthquake of higher magnitude than the recent earthquake of 2015, whose epicenter is located near the city of Gorkha, is a major concern and largely motivates this thesis. The last major earthquake of magnitude greater than 8 (Mb) took place on 6 June 1505 and had a profound impact on the Nepalese population and the surrounding area. In Western Nepal the 1505 event was the last earthquake that ruptured the Main Frontal Thrust according to historical archives and paleoseismological studies, which gave rise to the concept of a seismic gap in western Nepal and adjacent areas in northern India. With this in mind, this thesis addresses two major issues on the Himalayan seismic behavior: on the first hand is the hypothesis of a seismic gap in the central Himalaya and on the second the temporal distribution of earthquakes during the late Quaternary. For this purpose, a new research approach independent of paleoseismic trenches was applied in the Himalaya. By using lakes as paleoseismometers, we were able to refine the temporal resolution and identify earthquakes that had not yet been documented in the accessible databases on a 700-year scale. Our results from Lake Rara highlight significant previously-unknown earthquakes (Mw>6.5) and they reveal that Western Nepal is seismically as active as central Nepal. Furthermore, they call into question the hypothesis of a seismic gap in the central Himalaya. Based on a longer sediment core from the same lake, we studied the temporal distribution of earthquakes over a period of 6000 years, which has highlighted the random nature of the occurrence of earthquakes, constituting a paradigm shift where the notion of seismic cycle is still prevalent. The random nature of the occurrence of earthquakes both on short (instrumental) and Quaternary time scales disproves the hypothesis of the seismic gap in the central Himalaya and underlines the permanent risk for the million people of concern. The final part of this thesis addresses the possible global relationship between seismic rate fluctuations and climate change during the Holocene. Our results show that the global seismicity clustered over 7000 years and appears to be synchronous with the sum of glacial advances through the Mid and Late Holocene.

La contribution des calottes polaires à l'augmentation du niveau marin est un sujet de préoccupation majeure. Dans le cadre du réchauffement climatique, la dynamique de leurs glaciers émissaires évolue et ceux-ci accélèrent leur décharge de glace vers l'océan. En tant qu'exutoires des calottes polaires et régulateurs de leur perte de masse, la prise en compte de leur fonctionnement dans les prévisions d'augmentation du niveau marin est capitale. Cependant, les processus qui régissent leur dynamique sont mal contraints et il convient alors de réduire les incertitudes qui y sont liées. Les rétroactions entre la dynamique du front et la dynamique du glacier en sont un exemple représentatif. Dans ce cadre, cette thèse se concentre sur la modélisation de la dynamique du front de vêlage, et vise à proposer une nouvelle approche physique des mécanismes aboutissant au vêlage d'iceberg. Le travail réalisé ici couple la mécanique de l'endommagement et la mécanique de la rupture. Il intègre ainsi la dégradation progressive des propriétés rhéologiques de la glace aboutissant à la formation d'un champ de crevasses et modélise ensuite la propagation des fractures caractéristiques de l'évènement de vêlage. Ce modèle nouvellement créé est contraint sur une géométrie 2D en ligne d'écoulement du glacier Helheim, au Groenland, dont on parvient à reproduire un comportement cohérent de la partie terminale. Les tests de sensibilité menés sur chacun des paramètres introduits dans le modèle contraignent l'importance de chacun d'eux. On évalue ensuite l'impact sur la dynamique du front de deux forçages naturels couramment observés dans les fjords groenlandais : la fonte de la partie immergée du front et l'impact mécanique d'un mélange de glace (mélange de glace de mer et d'icebergs). Les résultats suggèrent que si la fonte affecte légèrement la dynamique du front, le mélange de glace provoque une réponse saisonnière d'une amplitude similaire aux variations observées dans la réalité. En frottant contre les parois du fjord, il empêche le vêlage et favorise l'avancée du glacier. On montre également que la fonte ne modifie pas le bilan de masse du glacier, mais que l'effet du mélange de glace est plus marqué. Enfin, nos résultats suggèrent que lorsque le glacier présente une extension flottante, un forçage élevé peut modifier l'équilibre du glacier et affecter plus considérablement son bilan de masse pluriannuel. / Polar ice-sheets discharge and subsequent sea level rise is a major concern. Warming climate affects the behaviour of tidewater outlets glaciers and increases their ice discharge. As they drain the ice flow toward the ocean, it is pivotal to incorporate their dynamics when modelling the ice-sheet response to global warming. However, tidewater glacier dynamics is still complicated to understand, as they are believed to involve many feedbacks. The one between calving margin dynamics and glacier general dynamics is fundamental. This PhD thesis focuses on modelling the calving front of outlet glaciers, in order to enhance the representation of physical processes occurring at their margin. To do so, we build up a new framework for calving based on damage mechanics and fracture mechanics. This allows us to represent the slow degradation of the ice rheological properties from a virgin state to the appearance of a crevasse field, as well as the rapid fracture propagation associated with calving events. Our model is then constrained within a 2D flow-line representation of Helheim Glacier, Greenland. We find some parameters sets for which the glacier behaviour is coherent with its past evolution. Sensitivity tests are carried out and they reveal the significance of each model parameter. This new calving law is then employed to study the impact of submarine frontal melting and ice mélange (heterogeneous mixture of sea-ice and icebergs) on glacier dynamics. These two forcings are usually suspected to be responsible for the seasonal variations of the calving margin. Our results show that both forcings impact the front dynamics. The melting, however, only slightly changes the front position, when the ice mélange can force the glacier front to displace up to a few kilometers. Additionally, if the melting at the front is not sufficient to affect the inter-annual mass balance, this is not obvious when forced by ice mélange. At last, our model highlights a feature which is specific to floating glaciers: for the strongest forcings, the glacier equilibrium may be modified, as well as its pluri-annual mass balance.STAR

Ces travaux de thèse se focalisent sur la modélisation numérique de la réponse thermique des glaciers froids aux variations climatiques. La prise en compte du forçage climatique par la modification des conditions de surface des glaciers est l'un des points clefs de cette étude. On montre l'importance des processus de fusion/regel en zone d'accumulation froide ainsi que de l'épaisseur de la couverture de neige et névé autour de la ligne d'équilibre. Les modèles développés dans cette thèse s'appliquent à des cas concrets sur trois glaciers du massif du Mont Blanc (Alpes françaises). Ces études permettent d'analyser des situations à risque et de reconstituer le climat passé à haute altitude. Le jeu de données très complet acquis sur le site du Col du Dôme (4250 m) comprend des mesures profondes de températures et de densités ainsi que des mesures d'accumulation et de vitesses de surface. Il a permis de valider et développer un modèle à trois dimensions de régime thermique couplé à un modèle d'écoulement et forcé par des données climatiques. Ce modèle permet d'étudier en détail la réponse thermique des zones d'accumulation froides aux changements climatiques. Il peut aussi être utilisé pour la prédiction du réchauffement futur des glaciers suspendus présentant un risque comme le glacier de Taconnaz dont une analyse préliminaire est effectuée ici. Le réchauffement basal jusqu'au point de fusion pourrait conduire à la déstabilisation de ce type de glacier. Le site du glacier de Tête Rousse ( environ 3200 m) a permis d'établir clairement l'influence de la couverture de neige et de névé sur le régime thermique des glaciers autour de la ligne d'équilibre. Les résultats obtenus à partir du couplage d'un modèle de neige (CROCUS) avec un modèle de régime thermique sont en excellent accord avec les observations de températures réalisées dans le glacier. On explique ainsi les causes de la structure thermique particulière du glacier de Tête Rousse responsable de la formation d'une poche présentant un risque pour la commune à l'aval. Dans le futur, les simulations indiquent que le glacier va continuer de se refroidir, limitant ainsi le risque de formation de poche d'eau. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous avons développé une nouvelle méthode inverse pour reconstituer les températures du passé à partir de profils de températures observées dans la glace. Elle est basée sur l'inversion simultanée de plusieurs profils de températures provenant de différents sites de forage ayant subi le même forçage climatique. La méthode permet de s'affranchir de l'impact des processus de fonte/regel en surface pour reconstruire les variations passées des températures de l'air. Les résultats obtenus sur le Col du Dôme montrent que le réchauffement climatique sur le site à 4250 m est similaire à celui observé à basse altitude. Ces résultats tendent à montrer que le réchauffement climatique n'est pas amplifié avec l'altitude. / This thesis focuses on the numerical modeling of the thermal response of glaciers to climate changes. The change in surface conditions related to climate forcing is one of the key point of this study. We point out the crucial role of the meltwater refreezing in cold accumulation zone and the thickness of the snow and firn cover around the equilibrium line. The models are developed from the study of specific cases of three glaciers in Mont Blanc range ( French Alps). These studies allow us to analyze the risk related to hanging glaciers and to reconstruct the past temperaures at high altitude from observede nglacial temperatures. The very extensive dataset obtained at the site of the Col du Dôme (4250 m) includes measurements of deep temperatures and density profiles as well as measurements of snow accumulation and surface velocities. These observations allow us to develop and validate a three-dimensional thermal regime model coupled with a flow model and forced by meteorological data. This model is used to perform a thorough study of the thermal response of cold accumulation zone to climate change. It can also be used for the prediction of future glacial hazard related to hanging glaciers warming. A preliminary analysis has been carried out on the hanging glacier of Taconnaz. The warming could have a major impact on the stability of this kind of glaciers frozen to their beds if the melting point is reached. The study performed on Tête Rousse glacier (about 3200 m) shows clearly the influence of the snowpack and firn cover on the thermal regime of glaciers around the equilibrium line. The results obtained from coupling of a snow model (CROCUS) with a model of thermal regime reveal a very good agreement with the observed ice temperatures. This study provides insights into the thermal processes responsible for water storage inside a small almost static glacier, which can lead to catastrophic outburst floods. In the future, according to atmospheric temperature increase scenarios for the coming century, most of the glacier will become cold which will reduce the risk of water filled cavity formation. Finally, a new inverse method has been developed to reconstruct temperatures in the past from observed englacial temperatures. The method is based on the simultaneous inversion of several temperature profiles coming from different drilling sites with the same climate forcing. The method overcomes the impact of refreezing meltwater to reconstruct past air temperatures variations. This is similar to the observed regional low altitude trend. The results obtained on the Col du Dome shows that climate warming on the site at 4250 m is similar to the observed regional low altitude trend in the northwestern Alps, suggesting that air temperature trends are not altitude dependent.

Glacial-interglacial cycles drive changes in the discharge and sediment flux from the headwaters of glaciated basins, which are recorded by proglacial fluvial sediments. Linking braided river stratigraphy to the Quaternary climate record could indicate the control of climate-driven variations in discharge and sediment flux on fluvial processes, and the magnitude and frequency of past climate variations. New Zealand is a key location for investigating terrestrial records of Southern Hemisphere climate change. The Late Quaternary braided river deposits on the Canterbury Plains, South Island, New Zealand have formed over the last 400 ka. The coastal cliff marking the southeastern margin of the Canterbury Plains provides excellent exposure of fluvial sediments deposited during the last glacial period, from ~40 ka until the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~18 ka).Deposition at the modern coastline of the Canterbury Plains is interpreted in the context of the climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand, which requires a precise geochronology. This thesis demonstrates the first successful application of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to glaciofluvial sediments on South Island: a technique that was previously considered unsuitable for this region. Ages produced for the coastal stratigraphy range from 36.7 ± 2.9 to 18.2 ± 1.3 ka, indicating that deposition took place during the last glacial, with little or no postglacial aggradation. Three adjacent catchments on the southern Canterbury Plains - the Rakaia, Ashburton and Rangitata - have undergone glacial-drainage capture during the period represented by the coastal stratigraphy. During glacials, transfluent ice reversed the flow direction in several key tributaries, resulting in dramatic variations in effective drainage area of the Ashburton and Rangitata, and variations in discharge and sediment flux which are recorded in the stratigraphy of these catchments. The magnitude, timing and duration of drainage capture were quantified using the Plummer and Phillips (2003) glacier model. The Ashburton catchment increased to 160% of the modern effective drainage area when temperature change relative to modern conditions exceeded -6°C during the LGM. Meanwhile, the effective drainage area of the Rangitata decreased to 63%, and the Rakaia to 93%, reducing discharge from these catchments. Furthermore, glaciation dramatically affects the seasonality of the annual hydrograph. At four coastal sites, the fluvial stratigraphy was surveyed to investigate possible variations in depositional architecture, due to both climate variations, and glacial-drainage capture in the Ashburton and Rangitata. Unexpectedly, little vertical variation in depositional architecture was found, indicating that the deposits created by the braided rivers represent sediment transport during a similar set of flow (and by inference, climate) conditions. Laterally extensive erosional surfaces separating storeys of one or two flow depths in thickness, in combination with the OSL geochronology, suggest that the gravel-bed braided river stratigraphy primarily records a response to climate variations within glacial maxima, rather than on the scale of the glacial-interglacial cycle.

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The reliance on freshwater released by mountain glaciers and ice caps demands that the effects of climate change on these thermally-sensitive systems are evaluated thoroughly. Coupling climate variability to processes of mass and energy exchange at the glacier scale is challenged, however, by a lack of climate data at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. The thesis addresses this challenge through attempting to reconcile this scale mismatch: glacier boundary-layer observations of meteorology and ablation at Vestari Hagafellsjökull, Iceland, and Storglaciären, Sweden, are related to synoptic-scale meteorological variability recorded in gridded, reanalysis data. Specific attention is directed toward synoptic controls on: i) near-surface air temperature lapse rates; ii) stationarity of temperature-index melt model parameters; and iii) glacier-surface ablation. A synoptic weather-typing procedure, which groups days of similar reanalysis meteorology into weather categories , forms the basis of the analytical approach adopted to achieve these aims. Lapse rates at Vestari Hagafellsjökull were found to be shallowest during weather categories characterised by warm, cloud-free weather that encouraged katabatic drainage; steep lapse rates were encountered in weather categories associated with strong synoptic winds. Quantitatively, 26% to 38% of the daily lapse-rate variability could be explained by weather-category and regression-based models utilizing the reanalysis data: a level of skill sufficient to effect appreciable improvements in the accuracy of air temperatures extrapolated vertically over Vestari Hagafellsjökull. Weather categories also highlighted the dynamic nature of the temperature-ablation relationship. Notably, the sensitivity of ablation to changes in air temperature was observed to be non-stationary between weather categories, highlighting vulnerabilities of temperature-index models. An innovative solution to this limitation is suggested: the relationship between temperature and ablation can be varied as a function of weather-category membership. This flexibility leads to an overall improvement in the simulation of daily ablation compared to traditional temperature-index formulations (up to a 14% improvement in the amount of variance explained), without the need for additional meteorological data recorded in-situ. It is concluded that weather categories are highly appropriate for evaluating synoptic controls on glacier meteorology and surface energetics; significant improvements in the parameterization of boundary-layer meteorology and ablation rates are realised through their application.

Glacier National Park, in northwestern Montana, is a unique and awe-inspiring national treasure that is often used by the media and public-at-large as a window into the effects of climate change. An updated inventory of glaciers and perennial snowfields (G&PS) in the Park, along with an assessment of their change over time, is essential to understanding the role that glaciers are playing in the environment of this Park. Nine inventories between 1966 and 2015 were compiled to assess area changes of G&PS. Over that 49-year period, total area changed by nearly -34 ± 11% between 1966 and 2015. Volume change, determined from changes in surface topography for nine glaciers, totaling 8.61 km² in area, was +0.142 ± 0.02 km³, a specific volume loss of -16.3 ± 2.5m. Extrapolating to all G&PS in the Park in 1966 yields a park-wide loss of -0.660 ± 0.099 km³. G&PS have been receding in the Park due to warming air temperatures rather than changes in precipitation, which has not changed significantly. Since 1900, air temperatures in Glacier National Park have warmed by +1.3 C°, compared to +0.9 C° globally. Spatially, G&PS at lower elevations and on steeper slopes lost relatively more area than other G&PS.

Land ice is losing mass to the worlds oceans at an accelerated rate. The worlds glaciers contain much less ice than the ice sheets but contribute equally to eustatic sea level rise and are expected to continue to do so over the coming centuries if global temperatures continue to rise. It is therefore important to characterize the mass balance of these glaciers and its relationship to climate trends and variability. In the Canadian High Arctic, analysis of long-term surface mass balance records shows a shift to more negative mass balances after 1987 and is coincident with a change in the mean location of the July circumpolar vortex, a mid-troposphere cyclonic feature known to have a strong influence on Arctic summer climate. Since 1987 the occurrence of July vortices centered in the Eastern Hemisphere have increased significantly. This change is associated with an increased frequency of tropospheric ridging over the Canadian High Arctic, higher surface air temperatures, and more negative glacier mass balance. However, regional scale mass balance modeling is needed to determine whether or not the long-term mass balance measurements in this region accurately reflect the mass balance of the entire Canadian High Arctic. The Canadian High Arctic is characterized by high relief and complex terrain that result in steep horizontal gradients in surface mass balance, which can only be resolved if models are run at high spatial resolutions. For such runs, models often require input fields such as air temperature that are derived by downscaling of output from climate models or reanalyses. Downscaling is often performed using a specified relationship between temperature and elevation (a lapse rate). Although a constant lapse rate is often assumed, this is not well justified by observations. To improve upon this assumption, near-surface temperature lapse rates during the summer ablation season were derived from surface measurements on 4 Arctic glaciers. Near-surface lapse rates vary systematically with free-air temperatures and are less steep than the free-air lapse rates that have often been used in mass balance modeling. Available observations were used to derive a new variable temperature downscaling method based on temperature dependent daily lapse rates. This method was implemented in a temperature index mass balance model, and results were compared with those derived from a constant linear lapse rate. Compared with other approaches, model estimates of surface mass balance fit observations much better when variable, temperature dependent lapse rates are used. To better account for glacier-climate feedbacks within mass balance models, more physically explicit representations of snow and ice processes must be used. Since absorption of shortwave radiation is often the single largest source of energy for melt, one of the most important parameters to model correctly is surface albedo. To move beyond the limitations of empirical snow and ice albedo parameterizations often used in surface mass balance models, a computationally simple, theoretically-based parameterization for snow and ice albedo was developed. Unlike previous parameterizations, it provides a single set of equations for the estimation of both snow and ice albedo. The parameterization also produces accurate results for a much wider range of snow, ice, and atmospheric conditions.

Le manteau neigeux de quatre glaciers de haute altitude (3000-3500 m) des Alpes francaises a été échantillonné pendant 3 saisons consécutives. En complément, un carottage de 13 m couvrant 3,5 années sur un glacier froid a permis de retracer la chimie de la précipitation annuelle. L'analyse des ions majeurs et des acides organiques par chromatographie ionique et par titration acide a permis d'équilibrer la balance ionique de la précipitation alpine. La neige alpine a un caractère légérement acide du essentiellement à l'ion nitrate et à la fraction d'acide sulfurique non neutralisée par l'ammoniac et les aérosols minéraux basiques. Les précipitations les plus acides reflètent l'influence des émissions de polluants des régions européennes les plus industrialisées. Les ions majeurs présentent des variations saisonnières avec un maximum d'été. Les arrivées de poussières sahariennes affectent de façon ponctuelle les hautes régions alpines, la neige étant alors alcaline. Ces poussières favorisent des réactions de neutralisation avec les composés atmosphériques acides augmentant ainsi leur dépôt. Les concentrations des acides organiques sont généralement faibles dans la neige alpine. La reprise de ces composés par les cristaux de neige est trés peu efficace du fait de leur réémission en phase gazeuse. Leurs sources sont principalement naturelles. L'ion fluoruré est présent dans la neige alpine au niveau du ppb. Au printemps et en été, les émissions de HF d'origine anthropique permettent vraisemblablement d'expliquer le bruit de fond de fluor observé hors événements sahariens