The dependence on oil has increased in many nations as a result of increasing industrialization and oil has been the factor of many crises as well as many wars. This paper examines how the price of oil affects the unemployment in Sweden. The case of Sweden is interesting since its politics are very different compared to other industrialized countries when it comes to unemployment and benefits. Our main objective is to see whether a change in the oil price will cause a change in unemployment at a later stage. We perform linear regression analysis relating current changes in the variables and Granger causality tests to conclude if there exists a direct relationship. The result we received from our linear regression test on current changes and our Granger causality test showed a relationship between the price of oil and unemployment in Sweden. In the linear regression relating current changes in these variables, a positive relationship was indicated. Due to the fact that some of the coefficient estimates are positive and some are negative in the Granger causality regressions, we can not conclude whether an increase in the price of oil will cause a positive or negative effect on unemployment.

Purpose – The aim of this study is to explore how outsourcing affects developing countries. The effects are examined for Ghana and Vietnam, which have recently become attractive outsourcing locations. They are compared with China and India, both well known for their outsourcing sectors and their attractiveness as outsourcing locations.   Design/methodology/approach – In this research paper an exploratory method is applied. During the examination economic data provided by supranational organizations is used to measure the effects of outsourcing. Data is collected to match the requirements of the applied triangular model for measuring. Background for the data collection is the triangular model by Granger. Key figures for observation are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), exports, and their correlations. Validity and reliability is ensured through cross examination of the model.   Findings – The effects of outsourcing vary a lot. All key figures rose in general during the observed 30 years, from 1981 till 2010. The correlations show that there are eventual relations of the figures, although direct relations each by each year are not found. The most remarkable finding is that FDI might indeed push the exports. Export rates are rising in the years after the investment is done. The relation of FDI and GDP show that there can be interrelations as well, but if the GDP is increased in higher rates than the FDI is done. An overall result of the examination is that Vietnam seems to rely heavily on outsourcing as they export almost ¾ of the fabrications whereas it is assumed that Ghana tries more on development and improvement of the whole economy.   Originality/value – This research paper looks at the often discussed phenomenon outsourcing by focussing on its economic effects by focussing on the effects for the developing countries Vietnam and Ghana. It provides the reader with new aspects to be considered in the surrounding of outsourcing. Further investigations are necessary to explore if the found can be generalised.

This thesis examines the linkages between macroeconomic variables and the number of domestic Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) in Sweden during 1998-2011 (in terms of changes). This study treats stationary times series data, from which multiple regression models are assembled. These models include gross domestic product, OMX Stockholm price index, lending rate, money supply, debt rate, consumer confidence, the unemployment rate and capacity utilization as explanatory variables. Aggregate number of M&As is set to the dependent variable. The outcome was that gross domestic product, money supply, unemployment rate and stock prices can help explain fluctuations in M&A activity during different time frames. However, the majority of the explanation for fluctuations in M&A activity lies within factors beyond ourestimation model. Through a Granger-causality test, we establish if the significant variables can help to predict M&A activity and vice versa. During different time periods gross domestic product and unemployment helps in predicting M&A activity. M&A activity also improves the prediction of gross domestic product in some time periods.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.

The aim of this thesis is to examine performance and relationship between the US and Asian REITs indices. We find two-year (2005/3/10~2007/3/12) return of T-REITs is 15.87%, which is much lower than the return of US, Japan and Singapore. However, T-REITs has the lowest risk in selected sample countries because the lowest VaRs is found. We estimate one-day horizon holding periods VaRs and find T-REITs¡¦ performance is better than other country by the Sharpe Ratio of VaRs. The Granger causality approach indicates some lead-lag relationships between these REITs. The NAREIT EQUITY index is leading the Hong-Kong and Singapore REITs indices; Singapore REITs index is leading the J-REITs index; J-REITs index is leading the NAREIT EQUITY index. However, Causality tests show no significant lead-lag relationships between Taiwan REITs market and other REITs markets.

<p>In October 2000 the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA) was launched. The purpose of the IIRSA is to improve integration of the South American countries and intraregional trade between them. One of the ultimate goals is to promote sustainable growth. The purpose of this paper is to find out if a better quantity and quality of transport infrastructure increases intraregional trade in South America. It is found that the quantity of transport infrastructure increases intraregional trade. On the other hand, there is no evidence for the quality of transport infrastructure increasing intraregional trade in South America. Furthermore, this paper investigates whether economic growth can be obtained through more trade. In other words, this paper examines if trade causes growth. The results do not confirm the trade-growth causality for all countries. The difference between the existence of a trade-growth causal relationship or not could be explained by the core commodities that the different South American countries export.</p>

<p>The purpose of this paper is to investigate if real stock returns are related to real GDP growth for the case of Sweden between 1980 and 2008. By using correlation tests, the paper presents evidence that there is almost no correlation between current real stock returns and current real GDP growth. On the other hand, Granger causality tests show that stock returns are related to future production growth for the period 1980-2008. Stock returns therefore indicate real economic activity in the next quarter. Between 1980 and 1992, there is no evidence of Granger causality from stock returns to GDP growth. However, stock returns Granger-cause production growth between 1993 and 2008, which suggests that the market has become better at predicting future economic activity. The paper also documents that GDP growth does not indicate future stock returns.</p>

This thesis investigates whether or not changes in a country’s government debt could affect its domestic stock market performance. The relationship is investigated by examining three different European countries, Germany, Portugal and Sweden, on the basis of two variables; (1) quarterly government debt changes as a percentage of gross domestic product and (2) the quarterly stock market changes over the time period2000:Q2 – 2011:Q2. The evidence is presented with help of Ordinary Least Square Method and Granger Causality test for each respective country. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, stock market prices should fully reflect all relevant information, e.g. government debt changes, as soon as they occur, without any delay, if the market is efficient. Past information should be insignificant and therefore not affect the stock market prices in an efficient market. In the cases of Sweden and Germany, the results proved to be ambiguous and thus do not allow for either rejection or acceptance of the Efficient Market Hypothesis with respect to government debt changes. However, some support was found in the case of Germany since the government debt changes and the stock market performance were instantaneously correlated. The empirical results presented in this thesis further allowed for the assumption that Portugal was not able to efficiently capture changes in the debt levels without any delay. This indicates that the Efficient Market Hypothesis can be rejected in regards for Portugal with respect to government debt changes. Furthermore, since the Portuguese stock market performance was not able to capture efficiently changes in the government debt level, it hence could possibly mislead the direction of the economy when looking into the stock prices to determine economic conditions. Moreover, the results imply that each country faces different relationships between the variables and that the relationships possibly could depend on the economic health of a country.

This thesis is about the causal relationship between interest rates. In chapter 1, with the help of time-series econometrics and by applying linear Granger causality tests based on the Toda-Yamamoto approach, the linear causality directions between the federal funds rate and five different interest rates during the last seven business cycles in the U.S. are investigated. We also examine the linear Granger causality directions between the overnight rate and five other interest rates during the last three business cycles in Canada. In chapter 2, the Diks and Panchenko Granger causality test is applied to explore the nonlinear causality effects between the short-term and long-term interest rates. By combining nonlinear causality effects with the linear ones which are found in the first chapter, it is seen that during the related periods in the U.S. and Canada, the most common Granger causality direction between short-term and long-term interest rates is a bidirectional one. Moreover, our findings show that during recent periods, the federal funds rate and overnight rate Granger cause other interest rates significantly. In chapter 3, the rolling window strategy is employed to detect the linear and nonlinear Granger causality relationship between the federal funds rate and the 10-year government bond rate, during different time horizons, investigating whether these causalities change with the passing of time. Our findings show that during different time horizons, there is a significant two-way Granger causality relationship between these interest rates. Although we have a different interpretation of the existence of bidirectional causation between short-term and long-term interest rates, this conclusion provides some support to some post-Keynesian structuralists viewpoints like Pollin (2008). However, Pollin's claim indicating that with the passing of time the significant causality effects of the federal funds rate to the market rates becomes insignificant is not supported by the current thesis findings because our results demonstrate that these causality effects have not been diminishing over the most recent business cycles.

This paper examines for the first time the relationship between the net issue values of aggregate bonds, as well as the different bond sectors separately, and economic growth. The other new feature of this study is the usage of quarterly data. Granger causalities are calculated for time series of 15 European countries, the USA, and Japan in order to test if there is a positive relationship between the development of bond markets and economic growth also for shorter time periods. The significant Granger causalities found show the following tendency: Economic growth is causal for net issue values of government bonds, and net issuance of corporate and financial institutions bonds are causal for economic growth. That finding is important for the future architecture of the financial sector, in particular in emerging markets and the new EU member countries. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut