This study examines the fundamental determinants of bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries. This is done by exploring the magnitude of exports among these countries. The Gravity model approach is used as the preferred theoretical framework in explaining and evaluating successfully the bilateral trade flows between South Africa and BRIC countries The empirical part of this study uses panel data methodology covering the time period 2000-2012 and incorporates the five BRICS economies in the sample. The results of the regressions are subject to panel diagnostic test procedures. The study reveals that, on the one hand, there are positive and significant relationships between South African export flows with the BRICs and distance, language dummy, the BRICs’ GDP, the BRICs’ openness and population in South Africa. On the other hand, GDP in South Africa, real exchange rate and time dummy are found to be negatively related to export flows. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous avons mis en place un métamodèle de transmission du paludisme basé sur la modélisation compartimentale susceptible-infecté-résistant (SIR) et prenant en compte les flux de mobilité humaine entre différents villages du Centre Sénégal. Les stratégies d’intervention géographiquement ciblées, s’étaient avérées efficaces pour réduire l’incidence du paludisme aussi bien dans les zones d’intervention qu’à l’extérieur de ces zones. Cependant, des actions combinées ciblant à la fois le vecteur et l’hôte, coordonnées à large échelle sont nécessaires dans les régions et pays visant l’élimination du paludisme à court/moyen terme.Dans la deuxième partie nous avons évalué différentes méthodes d’estimation de la mobilité humaine en l’absence de données individuelles. Ces méthodes incluaient la traçabilité spatio-temporelle des téléphones mobiles ainsi que les modèles mathématiques de gravité et de radiation. Le transport de l’agent pathogène dans l’espace géographique, par la mobilité d’un sujet infecté est un déterminant majeur de la vitesse de propagation d’une épidémie. Nous avons introduit le modèle d’impédance qui minimise l’erreur quadratique moyen sur les estimations de mobilité, en particulier dans les contextes où les ensembles de population sont caractérisés par leurs tailles hétérogènes.Nous avons enfin élargi le cadre des hypothèses sous-jacentes à la calibration des modèles de gravité de la mobilité humaine. L’hypothèse d’une distribution avec excès de zéros a fourni un meilleur ajustement et une meilleure prédictibilité, comparée aux hypothèses classiques n’assumant pas un excès de zéros : Poisson, Quasipoisson. / In the first part of this thesis, we have developed a malaria transmission metamodel based on the susceptible-infected-resistant compartmental modeling framework (SIR) and taking into consideration human mobility flows between different villages in the Center of Senegal. Geographically targeted intervention strategies had been shown to be effective in reducing the incidence of malaria both within and outside of intervention areas. However, combined interventions targeting both vector and host, coordinated on a large scale are needed in regions and countries aiming to achieve malaria elimination in the short/medium term.In the second part we have evaluated different methods of estimating human mobility in the absence of real data. These methods included spatio-temporal traceability of mobile phones, mathematical models of gravity and radiation. The transport of the pathogen through the geographical space via the mobility of an infected subject is a major determinant of the spread of an epidemic. We introduced the impedance model that minimized the mean square error on mobility estimates, especially in contexts where population sets are characterized by their heterogeneous sizes.Finally, we have expanded the framework of assumptions underlying the calibration of the gravity models of human mobility. The hypothesis of a zero inflated distribution provided a better fit and a better predictability, compared to the classical approach not assuming an excess of zeros: Poisson, Quasipoisson.

This study analysed the intricacies of trade flows imbibed in the EU-SA TDCA. It assessed the trade creation and trade diversion effects of this bilateral trade agreement – using the top 10 selected commodity exports. This follows the report on the Harmonised System (HS) at the 2-digit codes. A Gravity Model Approach on bilateral trade flows is grounded on panel data models for the period 2000-2017 between South Africa as exporter country and the twenty EU countries (EU-20) as importer country-block out of the twenty-eight countries (EU-28). The study reports that the EU-SA TDCA enhanced significant trade expansion and trade creation effects. Mixed results for GDPs and GDPPKs for both South Africa and the EU countries were reported, but the overall results showed that the bilateral agreement do affect South African commodity exports more negatively, albeit with few positive effects from the EU countries in particular. Besides, ICTSA does have a negative effect on commodity exports, while the South African REER has the positive effect on export models. Lastly, the distance as a proxy of transportation costs negatively affects South Africa’s exports, while common colonial relationship and English as common official language have both a positive effect on exports. The findings imply that trade policies should focus on adequate telecommunication tools, alongside fair trade practices allowing South Africa to integrate with the global market, promote economic growth as well as enhance competitive advantage in most sectoral trades. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management (International Business and Finance))