O objetivo deste trabalho é introduzir um método para a avaliação da viabilidade das exportações focando no crescimento econômico em termos de PIB do resto do mundo. Para isso são utilizados modelos locacionais e modelos de regressão baseados em modelos gravitacionais de comércio, ambos em conjunto. Este trabalho também apresenta de forma matemática e microeconômica a relação existente entre ambos os modelos. O estudo também testa o método introduzido por meio de um exemplo utilizando as exportações do complexo soja brasileiro entre 1996 e 2010. Os resultados obtidos não descartam o uso da metodologia proposta como instrumento de análise da viabilidade das exportações. / The aim of this work is to introduce a method for assessing the viability of exports focusing on economic growth of the rest of the world in terms of GDP. For this purpose, location models and regression models based on gravity models of trade are used together. This research also presents a mathematical explanation and the microeconomic relationship between both models. Also this work uses the example of Brazilian soybean complex exports between 1996 and 2010 to test the introduced method. The results do not rule out the use of the proposed methodology as a tool for analyzing the viability of exports.

The transnational traffic of narcotics has had undeniable impacts on international development, for instance, stagnant economic growth in Myanmar (Chin, 2009), unsustainable agricultural practices in Yemen (Robins, 2016), and human security threats in Columbia (Thoumi, 2013). Furthermore, globalization is a catalyst for the transnational narcotics traffic (Robins, 2016; Aas, 2007; Kelly, Maghan & Serio, 2005). Several qualitative studies exist on the transnational narcotics traffic, yet few quantitative studies examine the issue. There is thus an opportunity for novel quantitative studies on the general question: “what are the main economic factors that influence the transnational traffic of narcotics between countries?” This study looked at the specific question: “are distance and economic size correlated with the volume of narcotics traffic between countries?” This study chose the gravity model as it centres on bilateral trade (Tinbergen, 1962), accounts for trade barriers (Kalirajan, 2008) and is empirically robust (Anderson 2011). This study defined a basic functional gravity model relating a proxy of the narcotics traffic to distance and economic size. Four augmented functional gravity models were also advanced to address omitted variable bias. The research was limited conceptually to cross sectional and pooled time series data. In addition, the data was also limited practically to a convenience sample of secondary data drawn from: the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) (2016a) Individual Drug Seizures (IDS); the World Bank’s (2016) World Development Indicators; and the CEPII’s GeoDist (2016) datasets. This study used a novel “dosage” approach to unit standardization to overcome the challenge posed by the many measures and forms of narcotics. The study used the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator as its estimations of the gravity model are consistent (Gourieroux et al., 1984), allow heteroscedasticity (Silva & Tenreyro, 2006) and avoid back transformation bias (Cox et al., 2008). The evidence analyzed in this study seem to indicate that the gravity model may not be applicable in its current form to the transnational narcotics traffic among countries that report drug seizures to the UNODC. However, the sampling method and the choice of proxy are likely to influence these findings. Moreover, the low explanatory power of the gravity model for the narcotics traffic, reflected in the values of the pseudo-R-squared coefficient of determination, indicates that other factors are at play. For instance, authors such as Asad and Harris (2003) and Thoumi (2003) argue that institutions could be a key factor in the narcotics traffic. Future empirical research into this topic could build on the theses findings to introduce new proxies and to explore alternate theoretical frameworks.

This bachelor thesis examines if a Free Trade Agreement (FTA hereafter) has a positive effect or not on trade flows. There are many FTAs in the world beside World Trade Organization (WTO hereafter) membership. Many empirical studies have been performed by different methods and most of them show a significant influence on trade flows. In this thesis the impact on the FTA between the European Union (EU hereafter) and South Korea is studied by using the Gravity Model in period between 2007 and 2016. Dummy variables which capture the impact on the implementation of the FTA since 2011 are constructed into the standard trade Gravity equation. In addition, several dummy variables, such as the distance between countries and culture characteristic variables are utilized. The results of two different regression models show that both a positive and a negative impact on the EU’s import from South Korea and a negative impact on South Korea’s import from the EU. Overall, all estimated coefficients used in the models show a significant effect on import trade flows between countries.

Cette thèse comprend trois études sur l’impact de l’intégration commerciale et de la libéralisation des investissements de l’ASEAN suivant les recherches empiriques de la Nouvelle Économie Géographique (NEG). Les stratégies empiriques consistent à mesurer des coûts de commerce, l’accès au marché ainsi qu’à estimer les modèles de gravité théorique. La première étude examine le progrès de l’intégration commerciale et leur impact sur la performance exportatrice. La deuxième étude voit comment la libéralisation commerciale croissante affecte les inégalités régionales. La troisième étude examine l’impact des accords d’investissement sur l’attractivité des IDE des pays de l’ASEAN. Ces résultats mettent en lumière les avantages et défis de la Communauté Économique de l’ASEAN qui aura lieu à la fin de 2015. / This thesis concerns three studies on the impact of ASEAN trade integration and investment liberalization following empirical research agenda of the new economic geography (NEG). Empirical strategies deal with measuring trade costs, market access and the estimation of modern gravity models. The first study evaluates trade integration progress in ASEAN and its impact on export performance with help of trade costs and market access indicators. The second study examines how improved market access, though deepening trade liberalization, can impact regional inequality. The third study investigates the impact of investment agreement on FDI attractiveness of the ASEAN countries. The results help shed light on potential benefits and challenges ahead of the upcoming ASEAN Economic Community at the end of 2015.

Panel data analysis is the modern approach of statistical and econometric modeling. The aim of the thesis is to estimate the gravity model of international trade in alcoholic beverages in the form of bilateral trade flow depending on the gross domestic product and other associated variables that facilitate trading. The data have a panel structure. Based on the results of panel unit root tests the stationarity of variables in the panel and the expected long-term relationship between the analyzed variables are tested. Gravity model is assuming the existence of long-term relationships built through various methods, such as pooling OLS estimate, fixed and random effects models, cointegrated regression DOLS and FMOLS. Cointegration relationship is verified by Pedroni panel test.

El comercio internacional actualmente es uno de los pilares de la economía mundial brindando ventajas a los países permitiendo que tengan una mayor oferta exportable lo cual se refleja en la mejora de sus ingresos. En el caso Perú y Estados con la implementación y firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio se logro un mayor acceso de productos entre estos lo agrícolas, los que principalmente destacan frente a la competencia. El trabajo de investigación busca determinar el impacto de las medidas no arancelarias en las exportaciones de uvas frescas peruanas hacia Estados Unidos en el marco del APC Perú-EE. UU, durante los años 2008-2020. En los últimos doce años las exportaciones de uvas frescas han crecido de manera constante, por lo cual existen algunos factores que han sido determinantes para este desarrollo. La investigación tiene como fin conocer como las medidas no arancelarias como las MSF, las OTC y los certificados de calidad han influido en estas exportaciones. Para esto se realizará análisis de tipo mixto, estudiando las tres variables mencionadas con dos tipos de enfoque. En primer lugar, el enfoque cualitativo, para el cual se realizaron entrevistas semi estructuradas con expertos en el sector agroexportador, empresas exportadoras de uvas frescas e instituciones gubernamentales. En segundo lugar, para el enfoque cuantitativo se desarrolló un modelo de gravedad utilizando datos obtenidos de BCRP, PROMPERU, entre otros. El resultado de ambos análisis dio como resultado que las medidas no arancelarias en cuestión influyen de manera positiva a las exportaciones de uvas frescas. / International trade is currently one of the pillars of the world economy, providing advantages to countries allowing them to have a greater exportable supply, which is reflected in the improvement of their income. In the case of Peru and the States, with the implementation and signing of the Free Trade Agreement, greater access to products was achieved, including agricultural products, which mainly stand out against the competition. The research work seeks to determine the impact of non-tariff measures on exports of fresh Peruvian grapes to the United States within the framework of the Peru-US APC. UU, during the years 2008-2020. In the last twelve years, exports of fresh grapes have grown steadily, which is why there are some factors that have been determining factors for this development. The purpose of the investigation is to know how non-tariff measures such as SPS, OTC and quality certificates have influenced these exports. For this, a mixed type of analysis will be carried out, studying the three variables mentioned with two types of approach. First, the qualitative approach, for which semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts in the agro-export sector, fresh grape export companies and government institutions. Second, for the quantitative approach, a gravity model was developed using data obtained from BCRP, PROMPERU, among others. The result of both analyzes showed that the non-tariff measures in question positively influence exports of fresh grapes. / Tesis

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte de prolifération des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) et traite des effets des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous visons à mieux comprendre et à apporter des points de vue nouveaux sur le rôle des ACR et du régionalisme en général en tant qu’élément important de la politique commerciale international aujourd’hui. Dans le premier chapitre, nous revisitons les effets ex post des ACR sur le commerce des pays membres et le commerce extrabloc en adoptant une approche empirique. Nous cherchons à déterminer la manière dont les blocs commerciaux régionaux affectent le commerce non seulement entre pays membres mais aussi entre pays membres et pays extérieurs à l’accord. Notre analyse confirme que les ACR augmentent de manière significative le commerce intra-bloc ; néanmoins, dans de nombreux cas, les ACR impliquent des effets de détournement d’échanges qui sont préjudiciables au reste du monde. Le chapitre deux examine de quelle manière la période de mise en œuvre de l’accord et les niveaux de développement des pays membres déterminent, en dynamique, l’effet des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous obtenons des tendances distinctes des effets ex post de l’ACR sur le commerce entre les accords Nord-Nord, Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud. Nous vérifions empiriquement que les ACR conclus par des partenaires commerciaux ayant un statut de développement économique analogue (les accords Nord-Nord ou Sud-Sud) sont susceptibles d’engendrer une augmentation plus forte du commerce des membres pendant une période de mise en œuvre plus courte. Le chapitre trois porte sur la manière dont les interactions entre ACR et développement financier influencent les flux d'échanges entre partenaires commerciaux. Dans ce travail conjoint avec Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, nous montrons que le développement financier (particulièrement sous sa forme intermédiée) encourage les échanges commerciaux mais que cet effet est atténué dès lors que les partenaires commerciaux ont signé un ACR. / The subject of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of different aspects of the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. We aim to provide a fresh understanding and views of the role of RTAs and regionalism in general as an important feature of international trade policy today. In chapter one we revisit the ex post effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade and extrabloc trade by adopting an empirical approach. We explore how regional trading blocs have influenced trade among members as well as trade with nonmembers. Our analysis confirms the widespread trade-enhancing effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade; however, in many cases, they lead to trade diversion effects that are detrimental to the rest of the world. Chapter two takes a closer look at how the implementation period of trade liberalization and partners’ levels of development affect the RTA dynamic effects on trade over time. We obtain distinct patterns of ex post RTA effects on trade across North-North RTAs, South-South RTAs and North-South RTAs. We empirically validate that RTAs formed by trading partners experiencing similar economic development status (North-North RTAs or South-South RTAs) are likely to lead to a larger increase in members’ trade during a shorter implementation period. Chapter three studies the mechanism through which RTAs impact the effect of financial development on trade flows between exporting and importing countries. In this joint work with Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, we show that the trade-enhancing role of financial development in the exporting country—especially through intermediated finance—is mitigated when there is an RTA between this country and its trading partner.

The main objective of this thesis was to examine the determinants of Russian export directed to its 36 main trading partners. Employing the Gravity model, the standard gravity variables, such as economic masses of the trading partners and their distance, were estimated as having significant impacts on the volume of export from Russia. However, a special attention was paid to the role of FDI, studying whether FDI flows or FDI stock act as complements or substitutes of the export. Unfortunately, with the help of the Fixed-effects and the Random-effects estimation methods we came to statistically insignificant conclusions, which might have been caused by the prevalence of missing observations in the FDI variables.

This master's thesis investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic during 2005-2016. The analysis is performed on the constructed panel dataset for 53 trading partners of the Czech Republic by estimating the trade gravity models. The realized volatility values are obtained for 43 Czech koruna pairs against the local currencies. The variables included into the empirical analysis are the GDP and population of the Czech Republic and its trading partners, realized volatility, weighted distance, contiguity, direct access to the sea and information on EU and OECD membership. The methodological approaches in the analysis are calculations of realized exchange rate volatility and for gravity models panel data estimation techniques: pooled OLS, fixed effects and random effects. The gravity models are compared by the formal tests, and the most efficient among them is the fixed effects. The results of the estimated augmented model reveal significant positive impact of exchange rate volatility on trade balance of the Czech Republic. The key variables that have the expected significant positive impact on trade balance are GDP of the Czech Republic and its trading partners in the basic model, population of the Czech Republic and EU membership in the augmented model....

People are emotional about places. I study the effect of regional identity (“at home”) on internal migration flows in Germany between 1995 and 2017. Regional identity is proxied by measuring how NUTS3 regions were historically affiliated in the former patchwork of Germany. When controlling for the influence of distance, culture (measured by dialects) and regional characteristics, I confirm that regional identity drives migration patterns additionally. Employing the separation effect by the German wall affirms that not only earlier migration or family bonds determine movements instead of regional identity.