This thesis examines the impact of environmental regulations on trade competitiveness for South Asian countries. The study further investigates whether South Asian countries have become a pollutive haven of industrial exports to OECD countries during 1984-2004. The thesis also analyses whether tariff walls created by the governments to offsets stringent environmental regulations negatively affect pollutive industrial trade flows. This study has identified gaps in the literature after critically reviewing both competing trade theories and empirical literature surrounding the subject. Firstly, most of the empirical literature on the subject has focused on developed countries while ignoring less developed regions like South Asia. Second, several studies concluded trade competitiveness impact of environmental policy following a single estimation method when results are sensitive to the choice of the method used. Hence, for robust results, cross-methods analysis was imperative. Thirdly, the empirical literature on the subject focused on most pollutive industries and ignored the research on somewhat pollutive and least pollutive sectors as well as comparative analysis between those industries. This study has contributed to the literature by filling these gaps. Following the neo-classical theory, the central hypothesis of this thesis is that environmental regulations negatively affect different categories of pollutive industrial export competitiveness. By using the highest dis-aggregated ISIC level trade data and incorporating other socio-economic variables, this study has deployed comparative advantage trade models by Balassa (1965), competitiveness indicator by XU (1999), and bilateral RCA model by Grether and de Melo (2004). The study used the gravity model to control for un-observed effects over time on trade flows while capturing environmental regulations impact on pollutive industrial trade competitiveness. Accordingly, to avert endogeneity/data sensitivity issues and to ascertain robust estimates, the present research has among others computed Random Effect and Newey-West standard error models. The statistical modeling results show that while India gained trade competitiveness in most pollutive industrial trade, Pakistan and Bangladesh lost their trade competitiveness in the same category. The research finds evidence of most pollutive industries of South Asian countries increasing their bilateral RCAs and exports with OECD countries and reset of the world. A comparative analysis between most pollutive to less pollutive industries showed a lack of support for any systematic specialization patterns of trade for South Asia during 1984-2004. Nonetheless, this study findings based on gravity modeling clearly depicted a statistically significant negative impact of environmental regulations on total exports, most pollutive exports, and less pollutive industrial exports for South Asia and OECD countries. This study rejected the pollution haven hypothesis between South Asian pollutive industrial exports with OECD. It further concluded that tariff barriers created by countries to offsets environmental regulation costs would prove counterproductive to competitiveness. At the policy level, instead of lobbing for protectionism to balance out environmental regulatory costs, the governments in both developed and developing countries need to focus on forming better environmental policies fostering both competitiveness and environmental quality. Also, trade-offs between environmental regulations and competitiveness are challenging situations for South Asia and OECD countries. Therefore, sustainable production and trade policies combined with innovative and cost-effective environmental policies are needed to accomplish environmental gains and competitiveness.

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into optimal currency areas. The potential increase in trade is regarded as one of the most important benefits of a currency union. Indirect evidence from studies on the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade does not support this claim. Rose argues that the common currency effect on trade is separate from the effect of the elimination of exchange rate variability and finds a large positive effect of a currency union on trade. Although his methodology has met with criticism, most studies find a positive estimate. A meta-analysis of the studies confirms that a common currency has a statistically and economically significant trade-creating effect. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

Cette thèse a pour ambition de transposer l'analyse du commerce international au niveau sub-national en examinant la structure et les déterminants du commerce entre états brésiliens, et avec les marchés internationaux. Dans un chapitre introductif, on présente les faits stylisés sur la le commerce brésilien en se concentrant essentiellement sur les caractéristiques des états brésiliens. Dans le premier chapitre, notre modèle de gravité, estime séparément les capacités d'exportation des états vers les marchés domestique et international. Les résultats montrent que les états les mieux classés en termes de capacités d'exportation vers le marché international ne se confondent pas avec les plus orientés vers le marché domestique. Dans le second chapitre, on utilise un modèle de gravité pour mettre en évidence les effets de création et de détournement de commerce ainsi qu’un un effet d’ « érosion des préférences ». Nous montrons que le MERCOSUR a permis d’augmenter le commerce des états avec les pays membres, sans effets significatifs sur le commerce inter-états ou avec les pays tiers. Les organisations internationales, suggèrent que le commerce en valeur ajoutée est une meilleure mesure pour analyser l’impact des échanges internationaux sur l’économie quand le contenu en importations des exportations est important. Dans un dernier chapitre, on calcule ainsi les valeurs ajoutées exportées des états brésiliens à partir d’un tableau Input-Output inter-états (2008) pour analyser et mesurer les spécialisations verticales entre les états. On estime également un modèle de gravité de commerce en valeur ajoutée qu’on élargit à un cadre trilatéral: l’état d’origine, l’état ré-exportateur et le pays importateur. / With the ambition of transposing trade analysis to an intra-national level, we work on the determinants and the structure of trade among Brazilian states, as well as their trade with international markets. In an introductory chapter, we present the stylized facts concerning the Brazilian trade while focusing mainly on the states’ characteristics. In chapter 1, we estimate the states’ domestic and foreign market export capacities by a gravity model of trade. Results show that the states with better foreign export capacities are not necessarily the same as those more oriented to the domestic market. Then in the second chapter, we use a gravity model to shed light on MERCOSUR’s creation and diversion effects as well as its “preference erosion” effect on trade among Brazilian states. We show that MERCOSUR increased Brazilian states’ trade with member countries, but had no significant effect on either interstate trade or Brazilian states’ trade with third countries. International organizations suggest the trade in value-added would be a “better” measure to understand the impact of trade on economy when import content in exports is important. Hence in a last chapter, we calculate the value-added exported by Brazilian states from an inter-state Input-Output table (2008) that we use to analyze and measure the vertical specialization between states. We also estimate a gravity model of trade in exported value-added that we extend to a trilateral frame: origin state, re-exporter state and importer country.

This diploma thesis deals with alternative estimation possibilities of the gravity model in trade. We provide the reader with a synthetic methodological overview of the technical problems with the estimation of gravity equations. Consequently, we test for the heterogeneity of data sets used in gravity models of trade which leads us to a conclusion that behavioural patterns of exporters and importers built in the datasets are very complicated and a single generalized specification of gravity equation can lead to bias in estimates and/or to similarly generalized conclusions that hide important robust idiosyncrasies in behavior present in some subsamples of economic agents. Both the theory of estimation techniques and dataset heterogeneity are applied in the empirical part estimating Austria's export function.

Cette thèse étudie l’impact des institutions, notamment les institutions financières, sur le commerce et les investissements internationaux. Les quatre premiers chapitres étudient les institutions financières et leur impact sur le commerce et la spécialisation internationale. Précisément, le premier chapitre étudie ces institutions et les déterminants de leur niveau de développement. Le deuxième chapitre analyse la façon dont la finance intervient sur le commerce bilatéral. Le troisième chapitre construit un modèle théorique qui vise à expliquer l’impact de la finance sur le commerce sectoriel en fonction du degré d’intensité financière de chaque secteur. Le quatrième chapitre analyse l’impact hétérogène de la finance sur les différents secteurs manufacturiers. Le dernier chapitre de la thèse utilise le terme “institution” dans un sens plus large et étudie théoriquement et empiriquement si les similitudes et différences dans les environnements institutionnels à travers les pays explique la distribution internationale des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). / This thesis examines the impact of institutions, especially the financial institutions, on international trade and foreign direct investments. The first four chapters study the financial institutions and their impact on trade and international specialization. Specifically, the first chapter examines these financial institutions and the determinants of their level of development. The second chapter examines how finance impacts bilateral trade. The third chapter builds a theoretical model and aims to explain the impact of finance on the sectoral trade as a function of the degree of financial intensity of each sector. The fourth chapter analyzes the heterogeneous impact of finance on the different manufacturing sectors. The last chapter of the thesis uses the term "institution" in a broader sense and studies theoretically and empirically whether the similarities and differences in institutional environments across countries explain the international patterns of foreign direct investment (FDI).

Ce travail étudie, théoriquement et empiriquement, l'interaction entre le commerce international et l'investissement direct étranger (IDE), interaction qui a été un des principaux canaux de la mondialisation économique et de l'essor des chaînes de valeur mondiales dans la segmentation des activités de production. Les modèles théoriques montrent que le commerce international et les IDE peuvent se développer dans une relation de substituabilité ou de complémentarité. La nature de cette relation peut être la conséquence de facteurs exogènes, déterminants de la spécialisation des pays, ou le résultat de la stratégie endogène des firmes dans l'organisation de leurs activités à l'international. La validation empirique s'appuie sur une adaptation du modèle de gravité, en appliquant les techniques économétrique sur données de panel sur des données bilatérales pour la France au cours de la période de 1993 à 2012. Les estimations mettent en évidence une relation de complémentarité entre le commerce et l'IDE au niveau le plus agrégé. Cependant, une analyse comparative à un niveau plus désagrégé permet de trouver des indices de substituabilité et de complémentarité selon les groupes de pays partenaires. / This work investigates, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been one of the key channels of economic globalization, and of the development of global value chains in the international segmentation of production. Theoretical models show that international and FDI may be substitutes or complements. The nature of this relationship may be the consequence of exogenous factors, determinants of country specialization, or the result of the endogenous strategy of firms in the organization of their international activities. The empirical validation relies on an adaptation of the gravity model, using panel econometrics with bilateral data for France during the 1993-2012 period. Estimates show a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI at the most aggregated level. However, a comparative analysis at a more disaggregated level reveals some signs of substitutability or complementarity according to the group of partner countries.

O objetivo deste trabalho é introduzir um método para a avaliação da viabilidade das exportações focando no crescimento econômico em termos de PIB do resto do mundo. Para isso são utilizados modelos locacionais e modelos de regressão baseados em modelos gravitacionais de comércio, ambos em conjunto. Este trabalho também apresenta de forma matemática e microeconômica a relação existente entre ambos os modelos. O estudo também testa o método introduzido por meio de um exemplo utilizando as exportações do complexo soja brasileiro entre 1996 e 2010. Os resultados obtidos não descartam o uso da metodologia proposta como instrumento de análise da viabilidade das exportações. / The aim of this work is to introduce a method for assessing the viability of exports focusing on economic growth of the rest of the world in terms of GDP. For this purpose, location models and regression models based on gravity models of trade are used together. This research also presents a mathematical explanation and the microeconomic relationship between both models. Also this work uses the example of Brazilian soybean complex exports between 1996 and 2010 to test the introduced method. The results do not rule out the use of the proposed methodology as a tool for analyzing the viability of exports.

En dépit du renforcement de leur ouverture commerciale, le commerce extérieur des pays du Mashrek a presque toujours affiché des chiffres plutôt négatifs. Selon la littérature, l'ouverture commerciale est une des conditions permettant une croissance vigoureuse d'un pays. Néanmoins, la tendance constatée à la lumière des données du commerce de ces pays, traduirait une réalité alarmante. L'ouverture ne s'est pas traduite par une accélération des niveaux des investissements, ni par une création d'emplois. Est-ce que les politiques commerciales et de change menées par les pays du Mashrek sont responsables de cette persistance des déficits commerciaux ? Motivée par l’aggravation remarquable du solde de la balance commerciale libanaise survenue dans le profil global des échanges extérieurs du Liban, la présente recherche examine le comportement dynamique des exportations et importations libanaises en comparaison avec ses pays voisins (la Syrie, l’Egypte et la Jordanie) dans un contexte économique régional et international en mutation, en proposant une analyse empirique des déterminants des flux commerciaux ayant pour objet d’établir dans quelle mesure la politique commerciale et de change seraient responsables des faits stylisés observés. / Despite the strengthening of their commercial openness, the Mashreq countries trade has rather always displayed negative results. According to the literature, opening up trade is one of the conditions leading to any country’s vigorous growth. Nevertheless, the trend found in the light of these countries’ trade data, indicates an alarming reality. The openness was neither translated into accelerated levels of investments nor created new job opportunities. Are the trade and exchange rate policies pursued by the Mashreq countries responsible for this persistence in trade deficits ? Motivated by outstanding worsening deflection of the trade balance in the overall Lebanese external trade profile, the current research examines the dynamic behavior of the Lebanese exports and imports compared to its neighboring countries (Syria, Egypt, and Jordan) in a regional and international changing economic context. An empirical analysis of the trade flows determinants was adopted in order to establish to what extent the trade and Exchange policies would be responsible for the observed stylized facts.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T18:57:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 25 / Nenhuma / Esta dissertação analisa o efeito fronteira do Brasil e de suas regiões para o ano de 1999. O efeito fronteira indica o viés do comércio doméstico em comparação com o comércio internacional. Esse efeito foi estimado empiricamente, utilizando-se dados de corte seccional, em um modelo gravitacional com os 26 estados brasileiros, mais o Distrito Federal e 40 países. Apesar de o Brasil ter se engajado em um processo de abertura comercial, como o ocorrido durante a década de 90, e ter participado de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio importantes como o Mercosul, constatou-se que o país e algumas de suas regiões apresentam elevados custos de fronteira. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o comércio entre estados brasileiros é 33 vezes superior ao comércio internacional desses estados. Para as regiões brasileiras, o efeito fronteira das regiões Norte e Nordeste, é significativamente maior daquele observado nas regiões Sul e Sudeste / This paper analyzes the border effect for Brazilian goods market and its regions in 1999. The border effect indicates the bias for domestic trade compared with international trade. This effect was quantified empirically by using cross-sectional data in a gravitational model for twenty-six Brazilian states plus the Federal District and forty other countries. Despite Brazil's involvement in commercial opening in the 90's, as well as important regional trade agreements such as Mercosul, we noticed that Brazil and some of its regions have high crossborder costs. The finding results of this equation suggest a trade 33 times higher between Brazilian states than the international trade of these states. Regarding each Brazilian region, the border effect found for intra-national trade among Northeast and North regions is significantly higher than the border effect for Southeast and Southern regions.

Thailand has been one of significant recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI) among developing countries over the last 30 years, and has recorded rapid and sustained growth rates in a number of different industrial categories. Thailand has shown a clear policy transition for foreign investment over time from an import-substitution regime to an export-oriented regime. Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis (1985-1996), Thailand had the fastest growing level of exports in manufactured goods among Asian economies. FDI plays a significant role in the Thai economy. Thailand has been pursuing different foreign investment policies at different times depending on the development objectives and economic situation in the country. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the determinants of FDI and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Thailand using the extended Gravity Model. Panel data is used to estimate and evaluate the empirical results based on the data for the years 1980 to 2004. It also examines the FDI flows between different locations and their geographical distances in Thailand. The primary research question addresses what factors motivate, attract, and sustain the FDI and FPI in Thailand. In addition, this study also examines the effects of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis on the inflows of FDI and FPI into Thailand. The results show that the inflows of FDI in Thailand, which are supply-driven, are significantly influenced by its 21 largest investing partners. The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis has no impact on the determinants of the inflows of FDI into Thailand, but positively influences the inflows of FPI into Thailand. Our results also show that increases in GDP and trade between investing partners and Thailand potentially attract more FDI and FPI into Thailand. Investing partners closer to Thailand draw more portfolio investment into Thailand than distant partners – emphasising that distance has a negative impact on the portfolio investment but a negligible impact on the FDI.