Many economists and policy analysts have conducted studies on crop insurance. Three research gaps are identified: i) moral hazard in prevented planting (PP), ii) choice of PP and planting a second crop, and iii) selecting margin protection in the Dairy Margin Protection Program (MPP-Dairy). The first essay analyzes the existence of moral hazard in PP. The PP provision is defined as the “failure to plant an insured crop by the final planting date due to adverse events”. If the farmer decides not to plant a crop, the farmer receives a PP indemnity. Late planting (LP) is an option for the farmer to plant a crop while maintaining crop insurance after the final planting date. Crop insurance may alter farmers’ behavior in selecting PP or LP and could increase the likelihood of PP claims even though farmers can choose LP. This study finds evidence that a farmer with higher insurance coverage tends to choose PP more often (moral hazard). Spatial panel models attest to the existence of moral hazard in PP empirically. If a farmer chooses PP, s/he receives the PP indemnity and may either leave the acreage unplanted or plant a second crop, e.g., soybean for corn. If the farmer plants a second crop after the PP claim, the farmer receives a 35% of PP payment. The current PP provision fails to provide farmers with an incentive to plant a second crop; 99.9% of PP claiming farmers do not plant a second crop. Adjusting PP indemnity payment may encourage farmers to plant a second crop. The second essay explores this question using a stochastic simulation and suggests to increase the PP payment by 10%-15%. The third essay investigates why Wisconsin dairy farmers purchase more supplementary protection than California farmers in a MPP-Dairy introduced in the 2014 Farm Bill. MPP-Dairy provides dairy producers with margin protection when the national dairy margin is below a farmer selected threshold. This study determines whether conditional probabilities regarding regional and national margins have a role in farmer’s decision-making to purchase supplementary coverages using Copula models. Results indicate that Wisconsin farmers have higher conditional probabilities and purchase more buy-up coverages.

Studies of predator-prey and predator-predator interactions are needed to provide information for decision-making processes in land management agencies. Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are opportunistic carnivores that prey on a wide variety of species. In the Sierra National Forest, CA, they have not been studied since 1987 and their current interactions with their prey and other predators are unknown. Forest managers in this region are concerned with declines of fishers (Pekania pennanti) and studies have shown intraguild predation to be a leading cause of fisher mortality in this area. Managers are interested in learning more about mountain lion predation patterns with regard to prey preference, but also how lions traverse and use the landscape and how anthropogenic activities may be increasing lion predation risk on fishers. Using GPS radio-collar technology, we examined mountain lion kill rates and prey composition at 250 kill sites. We found mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) to be their main source of prey (81%) with gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) comprising 13.2% of prey composition. We did not detect any fisher predation during our 2-year study; however, during our study, the Kings River Fisher Project experienced extremely low juvenile fisher survival. To gain a better understanding of seasonal resource selection by mountain lions, we developed resource selection functions (RSF) while they were moving through the landscape and when killing prey. We developed RSF models for all data across the study area, as well as, for a subset of data encompassing an area where LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data had been collected. Within the LiDAR study area, we digitized unmapped roads and skid trails using a Bare Earth data set. We found mountain lion ‘moving’ locations showed selection for close proximity to streams during summer months and selection for ruggedness and steeper slopes during both summer and winter. With 3 of the 4 RSF models at kill sites showing high risk of predation within close proximity to either digitized roads/skid trails or mapped roads, we recommend managers map all anthropogenically created linear landscape features and consider restoring these linear features to pre-treatment landscape conditions following timber harvest.

In response to the rising costs of floods, the United States has adopted sophisticated programs to mitigate the loss of life and property. However, the efficient implementation of certain aspects of flood policy has taken precedence over effective communication. The scope of the National Flood Insurance Program and the efficient coding of "the 100 year flood" have led to a pervasive use of the term in both formal and informal risk communication. When officials began consciously communicating flood policy to the public, they assumed a narrow "engineering" model and did not fully anticipate the influence of informal communication on the perception of flood risk. The effectiveness of the "100 year flood" as a means to change attitudes or motivate behaviors was not assessed. Nor was its utility in increasing public understanding of flood risk. New explanatory methods have been introduced, but they, too, have yet to be tested. This project evaluated the effectiveness of four methods commonly used to communicate the risk associated with policy's benchmark flood. These include: a 100 year flood; a flood with a 1 percent chance of occurring in any year; a flood with a 26 percent chance of occurring in 30 years; and a flood risk map available through Project Impact. Data were collected using a structured face to face questionnaire survey of residents living in Wimberley, Texas. Respondents included individuals who lived inside the boundaries of official flood plains, as well as those who did not. Comparable questions regarding uncertainty, perceived need for protection, and levels of concern were asked using each of the four methods of description. Qualitative observations were made during both the interviews and the collection of secondary data. Results showed a significant disjuncture of understanding and persuasion with each method; potentially serious problems with the 26 percent chance method; and a preference for concrete references in describing risk. It is recommended that use of the 26 percent chance method be discontinued. Both the 100 year flood and the map performed better than expected; these descriptions are recommended with reservations in lieu of more contextually appropriate methods of communication and policy formation.

Detailed mapping and granulometric analyses of the 1992 Cerro Negro tephra blanket reveal remarkable departures from the expected distribution of tephra. Isomass maps show that the major axis of dispersion for the eruption was to the SW of the cone and that the coarser-grained particles, ranging from -4.0 -- 1.0 f, were deposited primarily along the major axis of dispersion with deposits thinning off of the axis. Comparable isomass maps for finer-grained particles, 1.5 - 3.5 f, show that these particles were primarily deposited along the edges of the deposit, off of the major axis of dispersion. Advection-diffusion models for tephra fallout currently widely used in volcanology do not account for this deposition pattern. Rather, it appears that interaction between the wind field, which developed a strong cross flow during the eruption, and the ascending tephra plume resulted in the formation of turbulent structure in the plume. Particles with a settling velocity greater than ~1-2m/s (diameter >0.5 mm) were able to overcome the turbulent structure and settled in a manner predicted by the advection-diffusion equation. Those with lower settling velocities were caught up in turbulent structure and deposited off of the major axis of dispersion, near the edges of the overall tephra blanket. Thus, this data set provides the first estimate of the strength of such turbulent structures in advecting plumes, and illustrates the limitations of the typical advection-diffusion models in describing some transport processes.

The aim of this research is to investigate characteristics of accident denominators across age groups in mining and associated process industries in the Port Hedland region of Western Australia. Emphasis has been focussed on comparing young, inexperienced groups with older, more experienced groups. A literature review revealed some key contributors to accidents among younger workers, in particular, those who had only recently entered the workforce. The review also revealed contributors impacting accidents regarding other age groups over a wide range of industry types. From these findings an accident construct model and questionnaire were designed to identify contributing and mitigating denominators which input to accidents occurring across the defined age groups.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to provide a detailed description of recent methods and scientific basis for characterizing earthquake sources within a certain region with distinct tectonic environments. The focus will be on those characteristics that are most significant to the ground-shaking hazard and on how we can incorporate our current knowledge into hazard analyses for engineering design purposes. I treat two particular geographical areas where I think current hazard analysis methods are in need of significant improvement, and suggest some approaches that have proven to be effective in past applications elsewhere. A combined hazard procedure is used to estimate seismicity in <i>northern Central America</i>, where there appear to be four tectonic environments for modeling the seismogenic sources and in <i>Iran</i>, where the large earthquakes usually occur on known faults. A preferred seismic hazard model for northern Central America and the western Caribbean plate based on earthquake catalogs, geodetic measurements, and geological information is presented. I used the widely practiced method of relating seismicity data to geological data to assess the various seismic hazard parameters and test parameter sensitivities. </p><p>The sensitivity and overall uncertainty in peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimates are calculated for northwestern Iran by using a <i>specific randomized blocks design</i>. A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years, is presented for the area of relevance. <i>Disaggregation of seismic hazard</i> is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions. </p><p>In conclusion, consideration of the effect of parameters such as seismic moment, fault rupture, rupture directivity and stress drop are strongly recommended in estimating the near field ground motions. The rupture process of the 2002 Changureh earthquake (<i>M</i><i>w</i> = 6.5), Iran, was analyzed by using the<i> empirical Green’s function (EGF) method</i>. This method simulates strong ground motions for future large earthquakes at particular sites where no empirical data are available.</p>

<p>The present thesis collects results of research applying theory and methods of statistical seismology to the seismicity of Central America, a region with a complex tectonic setting controlled by the interaction of four major plates, namely the Caribbean, Cocos, Nazca and North American plates.</p><p>Three different earthquake catalogues were used for studies focused on stress in a tectonic volume, seismic hazard maps and seismicity patterns (precursors), covering the region 94ºW to 81ºW and 5ºN to 20ºN.</p><p>Variations in the <i>b</i>-value, the parameter in Gutenberg & Richter’s equation Log<i>N</i>=<i>a</i>-<i>bM</i>, as a function of depth in the subduction zone were investigated. High <i>b</i>-values were identified in the upper part of the slab at depths of 80-110km beneath Guatemala-El Salvador and at depths 130-170km beneath Nicaragua. These anomalies may be related to the generation of volcanism occurring above them. Time dependence of the <i>b</i>-value was also studied. Five case studies were selected (events with <i>M</i><i>S</i> ≥7.2) for a detailed analysis. In three out of five cases, it was possible to link <i>b</i>-value minima to the time of occurrence of corresponding large events. </p><p>Seismic quiescence was mapped as a function of time and space by a griding technique. The characteristics of the quiescence were calculated using the statistics <i>Z</i> and <i>ß</i> and for Time Window lengths between 1 and 5 years. Five positive anomalies were found, which can be associated with large earthquakes (<i>M</i><i>S</i>≥7.2).</p><p>Finally, a Monte Carlo approach was utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala.</p>

The purpose of this two phased study was to determine the challenges to implementing food safety and hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) in school foodservice and the adherence to food safety procedures in 15 schools. In phase one, food safety and HACCP procedures were studied utilizing a focus group and a national mailing of a three part survey instrument to school foodservice directors. The instrument examined the challenges and attitudes of directors toward the use of HACCP programs and food safety practices in their operations. Phase two examined the food safety procedures used in school kitchens. The researcher and two trained observers audited 15 middle school kitchens using an audit form developed by the researcher. Practices audited included temperature monitoring, personal hygiene, cold storage procedures, cleanliness of facility and other observable food safety practices. The survey yielded a response rate of 58% and the challenge and attitude statements were tested for reliability and analyzed using factor analysis and multiple regression. The responses indicated that the school foodservice directors did not perceive the same challenges to food safety as those revealed by the focus group participants. In general, the directors were positive about the use of HACCP programs and food safety practices. However, they did perceive the time and money necessary to maintain these programs to be a challenge. Results from the food safety audits revealed that food safety practices could be improved among the audited operations. Poor food safety practices were observed in the areas of hand washing, temperature monitoring, hair restraints, and sanitizing of equipment. This study suggests that school foodservice directors need to be committed to food safety programs if they are to be effective. Directors need to continually train and monitor employees and maintain a positive attitude about the necessity of food safety in order to assure safe food handling practices. / Graduation date: 2002

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file viewed on (February 23, 2006) Includes bibliographical references.

During the past two decades, community-based hazard mitigation (CBHM) has been newly proposed and implemented as an alternative conceptual model for emergency management to deal with disasters comprehensively in order to curtail skyrocketing disaster losses. Local community members have been growingly required to share information and responsibilities for reducing community vulnerabilities to natural and technological hazards and building a safer community. Consequently they are encouraged to join local mitigation programs and volunteer for collective mitigation action, but their contributions vary. This research examined factors associated with Tulsa Project Impact partners?? contributions to collective mitigation action. In the literature review, self-interest and social norms were identified and briefly discussed as two determinants to guide partners?? behavior by reviewing game theoretic frameworks and individual decision-making models. Partners?? collective interest in building a safer community and feelings of obligation to participate in collective mitigation action were also considered for this study. Thus, the major factors considered are: (1) collective interests, (2) selective benefits, (3) participation costs, (4) norms of cooperation, and (5) internalized norms of participation. Research findings showed that selective benefits and internalized norms of participation were the two best predictors for partners?? contributions to collective mitigation action. However, collective interests, participation costs, and norms of cooperation did not significantly influence partners?? contributions.