Determining where people are most likely to suffer losses and have difficulty in evacuating from a hurricane is important to developing a hurricane response strategy. This thesis proposes a methodology for modeling and assessing evacuation vulnerability to a specific hurricane and applies this method to study Pinellas County, Florida. The vulnerability of Pinellas County to evacuation problems and the degree of loss that may be suffered from a hurricane is quantified in the Hurricane Evacuation Vulnerability Index. This index is the sum of three indices that represent social, transportation, and geophysical aspects of hazards research. Social vulnerability is assessed with an existing social vulnerability model that uses census data to locate areas where people will have difficulty evacuating based on demographic variables. Areas where people are vulnerable to traffic problems due to the condition of the evacuation routes are identified with a model developed using GIS. The degree of damage these areas may suffer from a specific hurricane is modeled using a tightly coupled GIS program, HAZUS-MH. These loss estimates are used to identify areas where evacuation may be necessary. The Hurricane Evacuation Vulnerability Index is mapped to show the areas that are most vulnerable to evacuation problems and may suffer losses to the built environment and subsequent human displacement. The Hurricane Evacuation Vulnerability Index is a valuable tool for emergency planning. The results are useful in allocating and directing resources to facilitate the evacuation of vulnerable areas. Emergency management officials can prepare evacuation plans based on the modeled results. Traffic management strategies can be implemented to reduce traffic congestion along evacuation routes. Transportation resources, such as buses, can be directed to areas where people do not have the resources to evacuate.

By combining FEMA's HAZUS-MH (Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard) flood-loss estimation software and the HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling package, this study was able to quantify potential beneficial and adverse impacts of flood-control and navigational structures along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR; between Mississippi-Missouri River confluence and Thebes, IL). The goal of this investigation was to assess changes in water-surface elevations and associated flood losses to: 1) quantify the potential exposure of flooding under different flood-control configurations along the Middle Mississippi River (MMR), and 2) assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to potential flood losses. Assessment of the impact of engineering structures was accomplished by modeling five scenarios for the 100- and 500- year floods: 1) current MMR levee configuration (levee protecting for ≤50-year flood); 2) removal of all flood-control structures on the MMR; 3) increasing the height of levees and floodwalls in metropolitan St. Louis to protect urban areas to the 500-year flood level while simultaneously removing all agricultural levees downstream; 4A) a less engineered MMR channel and floodplain with fewer flood control and navigation structures, simulating conditions from 65 years ago (1942-1947) with 1940's levees; and 4B) a less engineered MMR channel and floodplain with fewer flood control and navigation structures, simulating conditions from 65 years ago (1942-1947) with current levee configuration. Comparison of scenarios 2 and 3 relative to scenario 1 allows for quantitative assessment of the flood-control structures on stages and flood losses. Results from scenario 2 revealed that removing all levees along the MMR reduces the average stages from 2.2 m (100-year) to 2.5 m (500-year, but also increased economic and social impacts relative to scenario 1. Scenario 3 revealed that removing agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis on the MMR decreased stages by 1.4 m (100- and 500-year); however, flood losses for the 100-year flood were increased. Flood losses for the 500-year flood were decreased relative to scenario 1. These results suggest that agricultural levees along the MMR protect against medium size floods (50- or 100-year flood) but cause more damage than they prevent during large floods such as the 500-year flood. Comparison of scenarios 4A and 4B relative to scenario 1 allows for a quantitative assessment of river engineering structures and modern buildings constructed over the last 65 years. In scenarios 4A and 4B, a less engineered river decreased stages by 1.2 m (for the 100-year flood) relative to scenario 1. In scenario 4A, the 1940's levees expose modern buildings in the floodplain to flooding, causing economic building losses to increase; however, in scenario 4B, current levee configuration protects modern buildings in the floodplain from flooding causing, economic building losses to decrease. If the current flood-control structures were not built, it is likely that the land in the floodplain for scenarios 4A and 4B would not be developed and the land used would be more flood-tolerant. Sensitivity analyses were run to assess the impact of using the default HAZUS-MH national-level data; this was done by comparing results produced by using aggregate analysis (coarse data) versus results using UDF analysis (detailed data). The aggregate analysis estimated 51% fewer buildings damaged than the UDF analysis. Conversely, the aggregate analysis increased the economic building losses by 51% relative to the UDF analysis. Although collecting local data for a study is not always feasible, the large differences documented here need to be considered when discussing HAZUS-MH results. Overall, this project shows implications for historic and future flood-control and navigational structure projects on the MMR and other rivers. It also emphasizes the importance of studying the impact future engineering structures will have on water-surface elevations and flood losses before implementing them.

No description available.

The purpose of this project is to evaluate the response of coastal community comprehensive plans to the threats posed by sea level rise. The communities evaluated are Chincoteague, VA, Ocean City, MD, and Rehoboth Beach, DE. The results of the evaluations illustrate to what extent these communities are prepared to deal with sea level rise and provide a basis for recommendations to improve plan quality. The level of community risk and the components of the individual comprehensive plans are evaluated using new models created for this project. Risk level is measured using computer disaster simulations, topographic and demographic data. The plan evaluation criteria include standard plan quality benchmarks and hazard mitigation and adaptation elements suggested by numerous agencies and resources. The plan evaluations range in quality from “poor” to “excellent”. These evaluations will be used to create policy strategies and recommendations for addressing the threat of sea level rise.

The high frequency and cost of flooding in Canada has demonstrated the need for effective risk assessment (Public Safety Canada (PSC), 2010). In response to this need, the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed HAZUS, a hazard risk assessment tool which relies on a geographic information system (GIS) (FEMA, 2015). Unfortunately, in many rural communities in Canada, only aggregate population data may be available. In those cases, the ability to further partition aggregated data may prove essential in generating robust and accurate risk assessments. The results of this study show that HAZUS can be adapted for use in Canada and provides a new methodology for conducting hazard estimations in areas where available data is coarsely aggregated. There was a strong relationship between nighttime light and population density. High populations were associated with developed land cover classification. These relationships can be used to increase the accuracy of HAZUS predictions. / October 2016

Approximately 43% of Canada’s population reside in urban centres at most seismic risk.This research creates practical and proactive tools to support decision making in emergency management regarding earthquake risk. This proactive approach evaluates the potential impact of future earthquakes for informed mitigation and preparedness decisions. The overall aims are to evaluate a community’s operational readiness, reveal limitations and resources gaps in the emergency plan, test potential mitigation and preparedness strategies and provide a realistic earthquake scenario for training activities. Two models, the CanRisk injury model and a disaster Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS), were designed and developed to further evaluate seismic risk on a community scale. The injury model is an extension of the engineering-based CanRisk tool and quantifies an individual’s risk to injury, the number of injuries, and provides an injury profile of life-threatening injuries at the building scale. The model implements fuzzy synthetic evaluation to quantify seismic risk, mathematical calculations to estimate number of injuries, and a decision-matrix to generate the injury profile. The SDSS is an evidence-based model that is designed for the planning phase to evaluate post-earthquake emergency response. Loss estimations from Hazus Canada and the CanRisk injury model are combined with community geospatial data to simulate post-earthquake conditions that are important for immediate post-earthquake response. Fire services, search and rescue operations (including urban search and rescue and police services), emergency medical services, and relief operations are all modelled. A case study was applied to 27 neighbourhoods in Ottawa, Canada, using a M6.0 and M7.25 scenarios. The models revealed challenges to all emergency response units. A critical threshold exists between the M6.0 and M7.25 scenarios whereby emergency response moves from partial but manageable functionality to a complete system breakdown. The models developed in this research show great utility to emergency managers in Canada.

Les sujets que nous présentons abordent la question de la modélisation de dommages consécutifs aux séismes, avant et après l'événement. Cette approche a un caractère pluridisciplinaire, se situant entre les techniques propres au génie civil, à travers le calcul des structures, à la géographie, à travers l'analyse spatiale et à la télédétection, à travers l'utilisation de l'imagerie satellitaire. Le premier chapitre présente d'une part les objectifs, le fonctionnement et les principaux paramètres des modèles d'estimation de dommages consécutifs aux séismes, ainsi que leur limites d'applications. Le contexte français de gestion du risque sismique est analysé brièvement par la suite. D'autres part, nous réalisons un état de l'art des modélisations existantes, à travers la présentation des principaux travaux tels que HAZUSTM, RADIUS ou encore GEMITIS. Le chapitre conclut par une analyse de l'ensemble de ces modèles et par les perspectives d'améliorations envisageables. Le deuxième chapitre introduit une nouvelle méthode d'analyse des structures basée sur la prise en compte du déplacement. Puis, nous présentons la démarche utilisée pour le développement des courbes de capacité par type de bâtiments ainsi que les résultats obtenus. Pour conclure, nous réalisons une analyse comparative des résultats obtenus par différentes méthodes. Dans le troisième chapitre nous utilisons les courbes de capacité développées au préalable pour l'estimation a priori de dommages potentiels suite à un scénario de séisme. Nous avons considéré pour cette application les villes de Barcelone et Nice. Les résultats obtenus sont comparés à d' autres travaux d'évaluation de dégâts réalisés antérieurement. Le quatrième chapitre aborde l'utilisation de l'imagerie satellitaire dans le génie parasismique. Nous réalisons dans un premier temps une présentation des principales recherches existantes dans ce domaine. Nous utilisons dans un deuxième temps des images à très haute résolution pour la détection, la cartographie et la quantification de dommages suite aux séismes de Bhuj, en Inde, survenu en 2001 et de Boumerdes, en Algérie, survenu en 2003. En dernière partie, nous présentons les perspectives de l'application de la télédétection dans la gestion du risque sismique. Dans le dernier chapitre nous réalisons une approche préliminaire en vue d'une extension du modèle sismique aux autres risques, à travers le développement d'une échelle d'intensité pour tous les aléas naturels, réalisée dans le cadre d'une étude financée par le Ministère de l'Écologie et du Développement Durable. Nous terminons ce chapitre par la des perspectives de développement envisageables pour la généralisation d'une approche « multi-risques », notamment d'une perspective financière de gestion des risques naturels.