Unreinforced masonry construction is considered to be the most vulnerable forms of construction as demonstrated through recent earthquakes. In Canada, many densely populated cities such as (Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa) have large inventories of seismically vulnerable masonry structures. Although measures have been taken to rehabilitate and increase the seismic resistance of important and historic structures, many existing unreinforced masonry structures have not been retrofitted and remain at risk in the event of a large magnitude earthquake. There is therefore a need to identify buildings at risk and develop tools for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry structures in Canada. This thesis presents results from an ongoing research program which forms part of a multi-disciplinary effort between the University of Ottawa’s Hazard Mitigation and Disaster Management Research Centre and the Geological Survey of Canada (NRCAN) to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings in dense urban areas such as Ottawa, Ontario. A risk-based seismic assessment tool (CanRisk) has been developed to assess the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete structures. The seismic risk assessment tool exploits the use of fuzzy logic, a soft computing technique, to capture the vagueness and uncertainty within the evaluation of the performance of a given building. In order to conduct seismic risk assessments, a general building inventory and its spatial distribution and variability is required for earthquake loss estimations. The Urban Rapid Assessment Tool (Urban RAT) is designed for the rapid collection of building data in urban centres. This Geographic Information System (GIS) based assessment tool allows for intense data collection and revolutionizes the traditional sidewalk survey approach for collecting building data. The application of CanRisk and the Urban RAT tool to the City of Ottawa is discussed in the following thesis. Data collection of over 13,000 buildings has been obtained including the seismic risk assessment of 1,465 unreinforced masonry buildings. A case study of selected URM buildings located in the City of Ottawa was conducted using CanRisk. Data obtained from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake in New Zealand was utilized for verification of the tool.

Unreinforced masonry construction is considered to be the most vulnerable forms of construction as demonstrated through recent earthquakes. In Canada, many densely populated cities such as (Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa) have large inventories of seismically vulnerable masonry structures. Although measures have been taken to rehabilitate and increase the seismic resistance of important and historic structures, many existing unreinforced masonry structures have not been retrofitted and remain at risk in the event of a large magnitude earthquake. There is therefore a need to identify buildings at risk and develop tools for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry structures in Canada. This thesis presents results from an ongoing research program which forms part of a multi-disciplinary effort between the University of Ottawa’s Hazard Mitigation and Disaster Management Research Centre and the Geological Survey of Canada (NRCAN) to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings in dense urban areas such as Ottawa, Ontario. A risk-based seismic assessment tool (CanRisk) has been developed to assess the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete structures. The seismic risk assessment tool exploits the use of fuzzy logic, a soft computing technique, to capture the vagueness and uncertainty within the evaluation of the performance of a given building. In order to conduct seismic risk assessments, a general building inventory and its spatial distribution and variability is required for earthquake loss estimations. The Urban Rapid Assessment Tool (Urban RAT) is designed for the rapid collection of building data in urban centres. This Geographic Information System (GIS) based assessment tool allows for intense data collection and revolutionizes the traditional sidewalk survey approach for collecting building data. The application of CanRisk and the Urban RAT tool to the City of Ottawa is discussed in the following thesis. Data collection of over 13,000 buildings has been obtained including the seismic risk assessment of 1,465 unreinforced masonry buildings. A case study of selected URM buildings located in the City of Ottawa was conducted using CanRisk. Data obtained from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake in New Zealand was utilized for verification of the tool.

Earthquakes in Turkey, among all natural disasters claim the highest losses in terms of human lives, material and economic assets. Most of the lives are lost within the collapsed buildings, and most of the material and economic losses are again directly related to the functional capacities of the building stock. The method of risk assessment in the existing building stock is therefore an essential step in the maintenance of safer urban environments. Analysis of risks in the building stock is usually claimed to demand surveys of engineering studies. Yet risk determination studies by planners could prove not only a more comprehensive approach, but less time consuming and cheaper. As carried out by engineers, most of safety studies in the building stock are directly related with estimating the probability of collapse and damage in individual buildings. It is necessary to recognize the need for analysis of the building stock not only in terms of structural robustness, but as part of a mitigation plan, taking into consideration all sources of hazards and the urban pattern, densities, landuse, forms of ownership, social features, management capacities, and local opportunities. Risky buildings determined by a simple set of criteria within a comprehensive planning context are comparatively explored in this study to observe the level of fit with those determined by engineering surveys. The case of Fatih District in Istanbul provides an opportunity to carry out comparative analyses. It indicates that a &lsquo / perfect fit&rsquo / can not be achieved if for nothing but due to the disregard of multi-hazard areas, hazardous activities and other vulnerabilities like timber buildings other than reinforced concrete in the district by the engineering survey. Several trials indicated that there is a trade-off between ratio of fit and the total volume of relative vulnerability assumed. Ratios like 70% or more could make the planning approach a preferable method owing to its nature of least time-consuming and costly alternative in the determination of what constitutes risk in any urban area. Ultimate assessment could be made with the occurance of the earthquake itself.

Wood-framed buildings have generally performed well during earthquake events, resulting in low fatality levels. However, various degrees of damage is still observed in these buildings during previous earthquakes. Lessons learned from the performance of wood frame construction in these earthquakes is led to an improvement in the design codes and construction practices over the past decades. But, the existing buildings are still vulnerable, since they were designed based on the older codes or constructed using old construction practices. Wood frame construction is the most common construction type in Canada, especially for single family dwellings. Most of these buildings are old, built prior to any modern seismic requirement, and have not been retrofitted against the damaging effects of earthquakes. Therefore, with a number of Canadians living in areas of high or moderate earthquake risk, there is a need to develop tools to assess the seismic vulnerability of the exiting wood-framed buildings in Canada. In the following thesis, a risk-based visual seismic assessment model and a screening tool (CanRisk) is developed, to assess the seismic vulnerability of existing wood frame construction in Canada. The model is dependent on the seismic hazard, building vulnerability, and building importance/exposure, which are integrated using hierarchical fuzzy rule based modeling. In the proposed seismic assessment model, fuzzy logic is used as a computing technique to capture the vagueness and uncertainty of a seismic vulnerability assessment, caused by subjectivity involved in the evaluation process. The hierarchical fuzzy rule based modeling used in this seismic assessment method is implemented in a prototype Matlab based program (CanRisk), which incorporates the Canadian seismic design practice based on the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) and the Canadian site seismic hazard. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to test and verify the seismic assessment model and investigate the effects of various parameters on the outcome of the assessment. Also, in a case study, selected wood-framed buildings located in the city of Ottawa are evaluated using CanRisk, to demonstrate the applicability of the program.

台灣由於特殊的地理位置，所以地震、颱風等巨災所造成之損失時有所聞。這些巨災除造成交通、農業等經濟損失，更造成人員傷亡、房屋倒塌，也在每個人心中都刻畫難以抹滅的傷痛。為了因應這些巨災帶來的損失，台灣政府撥出許多補助費用予死傷及失蹤人民或其家屬，也提供某些房屋損失的補助。巨災不只危害個人，也同樣衝擊政府財政。 本文以台灣的地震風險為研究對象，並將地震損失劃分為經濟損失與財政損失。經濟損失泛指因地震所造成之一切直接損失，財政損失係指政府因災後所需之賑災與重建經費。因此本文不僅考慮地震所帶來的直接損失，同時也涵蓋政府對於災後的各項補助措施，以完整描述地震全面性的影響範圍。除描述地震整體影響外，本文另設計三種政府預算保險（比例式、自負額、給付最高額度與自負額並行等）作為風險管理機制。模擬說明有無風險管理機制輔助之下對地震損失所帶來之影響及其差異，可從中分析此保險的成本和效益。 本文主要使用國家地震工程研究中心提供之一般建築物損失資料表，輔以中央政府各主管機關對於其下轄業務範圍內之損失統計年報，從中取得因地震所造成之損失統計資料，例如傷亡與失蹤人數、房屋倒塌數、交通損失以及農業損失等，來建立損失模型。損失模型之建立係以模擬出之一般建築物損失為基礎，用迴歸分析評估其與其他損失之相關性，再建立其他損失模型。 本文之分析說明政府若能落實巨災風險管理，將產生極大的利益，在減少社會經濟損失方面尤為顯著。巨災風險管理是正面且必要之事，無論是住宅地震保險基金或政府預算保險，依初始規劃角度來看，政府皆扮演風險管理者的角色。 / Taiwan is usually hit and hurt by some natural catastrophes several times in a year due to its special location. Natural catastrophes brought not only losses of personal properties, agricultural products, and infrastructures but also casualties that brought painful, lasting feelings. In order to deal with the losses caused by natural catastrophes, Taiwan government released significant amount of consolation money for the dead, missing, and injured people. The government also compensate for some house losses. Catastrophes affect not only the private sector economy but also the public finance. This paper focuses on the impacts of the earthquake risk on economic losses and public finance losses of Taiwan. The economic losses include all reported losses while the public finance losses reflect the expenses paid for the post-disaster need, including disaster relief and reconstruction. Considering both the economic losses and public finance losses give us a better-informed picture about the consequences of natural catastrophes. After establishing the models for various types of losses, we analyze how government budget insurances can mitigate the natural catastrophe risks. We employ simulations to display the differences in the loss distributions with and without the insurance. The costs and benefits of the insurance can then be analyzed. Our model of the earthquake risk is based upon the scenario output generated by a model of the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering of Taiwan. We coupled the scenarios and official statistics on the earthquake losses to construct the building loss model. The models for other types of losses are then established using regression analyses. The above analyses demonstrate how the risk management on natural catastrophes taken by the government can benefit Taiwan. The benefits on the economic losses of the society are particularly apparent. Catastrophe risk management is positive and necessary. The Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund and government budget insurance are the measures for the risk manager - the government.

Approximately 43% of Canada’s population reside in urban centres at most seismic risk.This research creates practical and proactive tools to support decision making in emergency management regarding earthquake risk. This proactive approach evaluates the potential impact of future earthquakes for informed mitigation and preparedness decisions. The overall aims are to evaluate a community’s operational readiness, reveal limitations and resources gaps in the emergency plan, test potential mitigation and preparedness strategies and provide a realistic earthquake scenario for training activities. Two models, the CanRisk injury model and a disaster Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS), were designed and developed to further evaluate seismic risk on a community scale. The injury model is an extension of the engineering-based CanRisk tool and quantifies an individual’s risk to injury, the number of injuries, and provides an injury profile of life-threatening injuries at the building scale. The model implements fuzzy synthetic evaluation to quantify seismic risk, mathematical calculations to estimate number of injuries, and a decision-matrix to generate the injury profile. The SDSS is an evidence-based model that is designed for the planning phase to evaluate post-earthquake emergency response. Loss estimations from Hazus Canada and the CanRisk injury model are combined with community geospatial data to simulate post-earthquake conditions that are important for immediate post-earthquake response. Fire services, search and rescue operations (including urban search and rescue and police services), emergency medical services, and relief operations are all modelled. A case study was applied to 27 neighbourhoods in Ottawa, Canada, using a M6.0 and M7.25 scenarios. The models revealed challenges to all emergency response units. A critical threshold exists between the M6.0 and M7.25 scenarios whereby emergency response moves from partial but manageable functionality to a complete system breakdown. The models developed in this research show great utility to emergency managers in Canada.

The research attempts to resolve which method of estimation is the most consistent for the parameters of the earthquake model, and how these different methods of estimation, as well as other changes, in the earthquake model parameters affect the damage estimates for a specific area. The research also investigates different methods of parameter estimation in the context of the log-linear relationship characterised by the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Traditional methods are compared to those methods that take uncertainty in the underlying data into account. Alternative methods based on Bayesian statistics are investigated briefly. The efficiency of the feasible methods is investigated by comparing the results for a large number of synthetic earthquake catalogues for which the parameters are known and errors have been incorporated into each observation. In the second part of the study, the effects of changes in key parameters of the earthquake model on damage estimates are investigated. This includes an investigation of the different methods of estimation and their effect on the damage estimates. It is found that parameter estimates are affected by observation errors. If errors are not included in the method of estimation, the estimate is subject to bias. The nature of the errors determines the level of bias. It is concluded that uncertainty in the data used in earthquake parameter estimates is largely a function of the quality of the data that is available. The inaccuracy of parameter estimates depends on the nature of the errors that are present in the data. In turn, the nature of the errors in an earthquake catalogue depends on the method of compilation of the catalogue and can vary from being negligible, for single source catalogues for an area with a sophisticated seismograph network, to fairly impactful, for historical earthquake catalogues that predate seismograph networks. Probabilistic seismic risk assessment is used as a catastrophe modelling tool to circumvent the problem of scarce loss data in areas of low seismicity and is applied in this study for the greater Cape Town region in South Africa. The results of the risk assessment demonstrate that seemingly small changes in underlying earthquake parameters as a result of the incorporation of errors can lead to significant changes in loss estimates for buildings in an area of low seismicity. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / Insurance and Actuarial Science / MSc / Unrestricted

因台灣全島具有許多地震斷層，各處均有可能發生地震，又大型地震易伴隨之地震變動，常有斷層、山崩、地裂、地盤隆起、陷沒、崩崖、噴沙、噴泥、土壤液化、井水變化之情形發生。地震所造成之損失相當嚴重，若僅賴政府之事後救濟，將造成納稅人及國家沉重之財政負荷，相形之下，使人民事前投保地震保險，共同分散損失，乃較佳選擇。有鑑於位於高地震風險地區之國家，例如，位於「環太平洋地震帶」之日本、紐西蘭、美國加州，及位於「歐亞地震帶」之土耳其等，均陸續發展地震保險制度，故本論文欲藉各國地震保險制度，探討我國目前住宅地震保險制度之完善性。 本論文以此為主題，探討之內容包含地震風險是否具可保性、政府是否應介入地震保險市場、綜合天災保險之可行性、地震保險保費釐定之考量因素、是否應強制投保地震保險、強制承保之必要性、目前之投保方式是否構成違法之搭售行為、及理賠標準之爭議等問題，於論文最後並提出相關條文之修正建議。 / Earthquakes occur frequently in Taiwan, and they always lead to catastrophic losses. If the government invests more taxpayer dollars into ex post compensation, it will be unfair to other taxpayers. For insurance plays an important role in the modern societies. It can successfully distribute the risks ex ante and contribute to make societies more stable. So this paper introduces Earthquake Insurance to solve the problem, discusses the topic from different aspects, and does a comparative research on legislation between America, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey and Taiwan. The outline of this paper discusses the insurability, the ways of risk management, the need of government intervention, whether to introduce mandatory insurance, the coverage extent the insurer can provide, and how to determine the premium. At the last of this paper, the author also raises some suggestions of Insurance Law.

L’interesse a realizzare un approfondimento delle responsabilità penali connesse al fallimento delle attività di protezione civile sorge in connessione all’incremento di procedimenti penali a carico di operatori della Protezione Civile. Collocato l’obiettivo primario nella individuazione delle condizioni di dichiarazione della responsabilità, inquadrato il fenomeno di flessibilizzazione delle categorie penalistiche emerso nella prassi giudiziaria in risposta al bisogno sociale di sicurezza, l’indagine si snoda attraverso due aree tematiche idealmente suddivise, volte alla ricostruzione della disciplina dedicata alla P.C. e alla descrizione dei criteri di affermazione della responsabilità, secondo un approccio per problematiche che segue l’incedere dell’accertamento. Quale trait d’union il rischio, elemento trasversale dell’intera analisi, è oggetto delle attività di protezione civile da un lato, fattore di distorsione delle categorie penalistiche in funzione espansiva della responsabilità dall’altro, manifestazione della necessità di scindere la visuale prospettica della funzione di valutazione e gestione del rischio da quella di giudizio sul fallimento dell’attività previsionale. Le soluzioni prospettate, calate nella realtà giudiziaria attraverso l’analisi critica del procedimento sul terremoto dell’Aquila, si muovono in un’ottica di equilibrio tra opposti valori di sicurezza e libertà, in vista di una tutela penale che, se non può a priori essere esclusa, deve situarsi entro confini imposti dalle garanzie penalistiche. / The interest in realizing an in-depth analysis of the criminal responsibilities related to the failure of the activities of civil defence arises from the increase in criminal proceedings against workers of the Civil Defence. Given the phenomenon of versatility of the elements of crime risen from the social need for safety, the main purpose of the investigation is the identification of the conditions of statement of responsibility. The investigation is divided in two thematic areas intended to remodel the legislation of Civil Defence and describe the criteria of statement of responsibility. As a joining link, the risk, cross element of the whole analysis, is both the subject of the activities of civil defence and a factor of distorsion of the elements of crime and expression of the necessity to distinguish the perspectival view of the management of risk from that of judgement on the failure of previsional activity. The proposed solutions, placed in the legal reality of the criminal procedure of Aquila earthquake, have a perfect balance between the opposite values of safety and freedom, in order to grant a legal protection which cannot be excluded and must be placed within the borders of the guarantees of the criminal procedure.

The process of modeling earthquake hazard risk and vulnerability is a prime component of mitigation planning, but is rife with epistemic, aleatory and factual uncertainty. Reducing uncertainty in such models yields significant benefits, both in terms of extending knowledge and increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of mitigation planning. An accurate description of the built environment as an input into loss estimation would reduce factual uncertainty in the modeling process. Building attributes for earthquake loss estimation and risk assessment modeling were identified. Three modules for developing the building attributes were proposed, including structure classification, building footprint recognition and building valuation. Data from primary sources and field surveys were collected from Shelby County, Tennessee, for calibration and validation of the structure type models and for estimation of various components of building value. Building footprint libraries were generated for implementation of algorithms to programmatically recognize two-dimensional building configurations. The modules were implemented to produce a building inventory for Shelby County, Tennessee that may be used effectively in loss estimation modeling. Validation of the building inventory demonstrates effectively that advanced technologies and methods may be effectively and innovatively applied on combinations of primary and derived data and replicated in order to produce a bottom-up, reliable, accurate and cost-effective building inventory.