This study examines the hedging effectiveness of the Silver Bullet Fund created by AuAg Funds. The Silver Bullet Fund will be examined alongside a financial proxy and an industry proxy, to assess whether to hedge or not during turbulent times.     The study examines the hedging performance of the Silver Bullet fund by utilizing a static model to capture the behavior of a crisis at a specific point in time, alongside a dynamic model to capture the behavior of crises over time. Further research suggests that several other econometric models can be used for analysis with the same purpose. However, the evidence in this study suggests that a hedged portfolio outperforms an unhedged portfolio during crisis for the S&P500 Index, while for the STOXX 600 Europe Automobiles & Parts Index should not be hedged during the crisis under the static assumption. Moreover, there are also occasions where the standardized returns for the three variables lies outside of the confidence intervals. The study also finds that under the dynamic model, the financial proxy Hedge Ratios during all three crises, compared to the industry proxy, sees the highest value of the Hedge Ratios, however, presenting low hedging effectiveness.

A major concern for investors in residential real estate throughout the United States is the decline in value of residential real estate. The high demand for residential real estate bas increased prices significantly. Many analysts believe that the recent price increases have been fueled by speculation and there is currently potential for a decline in prices. This thesis studies various methods by which investors might potentially hedge the decline in residential real estate values that many analysts predict will occur. Three possible methods that could provide investors with a cost-effective way to hedge a decline in residential real estate values are studied in this thesis. These methods are taking a short position in a portfolio of stocks from the PHLX Housing Index, buying Morgan Stanley I 00% Bear Capital Protected Notes, and selling a Hedgelet portfolio, which consists of binary options offered by Hedgestreet. Throughout the analysis of the hedging strategies, the objective was to determine which hedging strategy would provide the best possible hedge at the lowest possible cost to the investor. I concluded that none of the three hedging strategies would provide a cost-effective hedge for the investor.

No / This article presents a new perspective for analysing organizational death through the concept of reanimation. Mobilizing recent discussions of the monstrous in organization theory, we draw on the figure of the reanimated monster to analyse an apparent case of organizational dying in the UK financial services sector. Through this, we explore how organizations may neither live nor die, but instead constitute a continual process of reanimation in which organizational spaces and the materials, bodies and narratives surrounding them are recycled, reintegrated and reused to maintain the appearance of the immortal organization. However, reanimation is not merely the clean and efficient synthesis of old and new. There is an unsettling consequence to living and working within the reanimated organization and it is here that the article considers the value of the monstrous for challenging and rethinking established categories of continuity, change, death, life and loss in contemporary working life.

No / Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore statistical arbitrage opportunities in the CDS spreads of North American companies. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade market-neutral portfolios while controlling for realistic transaction costs. Empirical results show that our arbitrage strategy is of significant economic value, and also cast doubt on the efficiency of the CDS market. The aggregate returns of the trading strategy are positively related to the square of market-wide credit and liquidity risks, indicating that the market is less efficient when it is more volatile.

Yes / Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the CDS spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts. Our empirical results show that the trading strategy exhibits abnormally large returns, confirming the existence and persistence of a mispricing. The aggregate returns of the trading strategy are positively related to the square of market-wide credit and liquidity risks, indicating that the mispricing is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. When implemented on the Markit data, the strategy shows significant economic value even after controlling for realistic transaction costs.

<p>Syftet är att konstruera en handelsstrategi baserad på Contracts-For-Difference (CFD) för att utnyttja de möjliga samband som föreligger mellan oljepris och SEK/USD växlingskurs.</p><p>Uppsatsen baseras på en induktiv ansats med kvantitativ metod. Slutsatser dras från utifrån de data som har bearbetats.</p><p>Korrelationen mellan olja och valutan SEK/USD är starkt negativ. Funktionaliteten hos ”Moving Average” som indikator för trendskiften bedöms som relativt hög. Handelsstrategin som har konstruerats uppvisar positivt resultat efter fem års simulerad handel. Handelsstrategin skulle kunna automatiseras och automatisering av denna bedöms som mindre komplicerat.</p> / <p>The purpose is to construct a trading strategy based on Contracts-For-Difference (CFD) to exploit the possible correlations between oil price and SEK/USD spot rate.</p><p>The thesis is based on an inductive approach with a quantitative methodology. Conclusions are drawn from the data that has been processed.</p><p>The correlation between oil and currency SEK/USD has a strong negative value. The functionality of "Moving Average" as an indicator for showing trend shifts are assessed as relatively high. The constructed trade strategy gave positive results after five years of simulated trading. The trade strategy could be automated and the automation of this is considered less complicated.</p>

Syftet är att konstruera en handelsstrategi baserad på Contracts-For-Difference (CFD) för att utnyttja de möjliga samband som föreligger mellan oljepris och SEK/USD växlingskurs. Uppsatsen baseras på en induktiv ansats med kvantitativ metod. Slutsatser dras från utifrån de data som har bearbetats. Korrelationen mellan olja och valutan SEK/USD är starkt negativ. Funktionaliteten hos ”Moving Average” som indikator för trendskiften bedöms som relativt hög. Handelsstrategin som har konstruerats uppvisar positivt resultat efter fem års simulerad handel. Handelsstrategin skulle kunna automatiseras och automatisering av denna bedöms som mindre komplicerat. / The purpose is to construct a trading strategy based on Contracts-For-Difference (CFD) to exploit the possible correlations between oil price and SEK/USD spot rate. The thesis is based on an inductive approach with a quantitative methodology. Conclusions are drawn from the data that has been processed. The correlation between oil and currency SEK/USD has a strong negative value. The functionality of "Moving Average" as an indicator for showing trend shifts are assessed as relatively high. The constructed trade strategy gave positive results after five years of simulated trading. The trade strategy could be automated and the automation of this is considered less complicated.

In questa tesi, l’analisi verte su risk-adjusted performance, proprietà statistiche e caratteristiche dei fondi hedge (FH). Nel primo articolo, i risultati relativi al survivorship bias e backfill bias indicano che l’impatto delle distorsioni è diverso a seconda delle strategie. Utilizzando il modello multifattoriale di Fung and Hsieh (2004), l’analisi della performance indica che il 42% dei FH ha ottenuto un rendimento superiore al mercato. Infine, utilizzando dei metodi parametrici e non parametrici, l’analisi della persistenza indica differenti livelli di persistenza a seconda della strategia. Nel secondo articolo, vengono analizzati i fondi di fondi hedge (FOHFs). I risultati sono particolarmente interessanti. In primo luogo, i FOHFs e le sotto strategie hanno generato un excess return positivo; inoltre l’alfa ottenuto attraverso il modello a 7 fattori di Fung and Hsieh (2004) risulta elevato. In secondo luogo, i FOHFs e le sotto strategie hanno un rendimento inferiore a quello dell’indice dei FH. In terzo luogo, le correlazioni tra gli indici dei FOHFs e l’indice azionario sono inferiori rispetto alle correlazioni tra l’indice dei FH e gli indici azionari. Infine, l’indice dei FH e quelli dei FOHFs sono positivamente correlati con l’indice azionario quando il mercato tende al ribasso, ma risultano non correlati con l’indice azionario quando il mercato tende al rialzo. Rispetto all’indice dei FH, gli indici dei FOHFs hanno una correlazione minore con gli indici azionari in entrambe le fasi del mercato, suggerendo che i FOHFs forniscono benefici maggiori in termini di diversificazione rispetto ai fondi hedge puri. / In this thesis, I examine the risk-adjusted performance, statistical properties and fund characteristics of hedge fund investments. In Essay One, results of survivorship bias and backfill bias by investment styles indicate that biases are different across styles. Using a multi-factor model of Fung and Hsieh (2004), the analysis of performance indicates that 42% of the hedge funds significantly outperformed the market. Finally, using parametric and non-parametric methods, the analysis of persistence indicates different degree of persistence depending on the hedge fund strategy. In Essay Two, I analyse fund of hedge funds (FOHFs). I find several interesting results. First, FOHFs and the sub-strategies earn positive excess returns and a high Fung and Hsieh 7-factor alpha. Second, FOHFs and the sub-strategies underperform the hedge fund index (HFI). Third, the correlations between FOHF indices and equity index are lower than correlations between HFI and equity indices. Finally, hedge funds and FOHFs are positively correlated with the equity index in the bear markets but uncorrelated with the equity index in the bull markets. Compared to HFI, FOHF indices have lower correlation with equity index in both bull and bear markets, indicating that FOHFs provide better diversification benefits than individual hedge funds.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:20:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 163071.pdf: 1020919 bytes, checksum: d38f60057e12ca6dfdc83ce2fe0fcca9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-01-31T00:00:00Z / Making business in a globalized world implies in increasing the exposure of nonfinancial companies to several financial risks as foreign exchange rates, commodities and interests rates; depending on the evolution of these variables, companies results may be affected significantly. There are plenty of academic theories which focus on benefits generated by risk management programs in non-financial companies as reduction of costs of financial distress and agency costs as well as the use of hedging strategies for tax purposes. These initiatives may contribute to the value creation for the business and may offer a better forecastability of future cash flows, reducing companies vulnerability to adverse market conditions. This study presents two business cases with Brazilian non-financial companies which had exposure on foreign currency and transactions with foreign currency derivatives were not identified from 1999 up to 2005, a period with high volatility of foreign currency rates. By the use of simulation models, some hedge strategies were proposed for the identified exposures for each company aiming at evaluating the effects of derivatives utilization on companies results for both value creation and volatility reduction for expected cash flows perspectives. This study does not recommend hedge strategies for a specific market situation but only demonstrates, empirically, which results would be achieved if specific strategies were implemented, considering that several others could be created for the same market situation. Results suggest some insights on derivatives utilization by non-financial companies – a brand new theme for Brazilian companies. / A realização de negócios em um mundo globalizado implica em aumentar a exposição das empresas não-financeiras a diversos riscos de origem financeira como câmbio, commodities e taxas de juros e que, dependendo da evolução destas variáveis macroeconômicas, podem afetar significativamente os resultados destas empresas. Existem diversas teorias acadêmicas que abordam sobre os benefícios gerados por programas de gestão de riscos em empresas não-financeiras como redução dos custos de financial distress e custos de agência bem como o uso de estratégias de hedge para fins fiscais. Tais iniciativas contribuiriam, em última instância, para a criação de valor para o negócio e poderiam garantir uma melhor previsibilidade dos fluxos de caixa futuros, tornando as empresas menos vulneráveis a condições adversas de mercado. Este trabalho apresenta dois estudos de caso com empresas não-financeiras brasileiras que possuíam exposições em moeda estrangeira e que não foram identificadas operações com derivativos cambiais durante o período de 1999 a 2005 que foi caracterizado pela alta volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Através de modelos de simulação, algumas estratégias com o uso de derivativos foram propostas para as exposições cambiais identificadas para cada empresa com o objetivo de avaliar os efeitos da utilização destes derivativos cambiais sobre os resultados das empresas no que se refere à agregação de valor para o negócio e redução de volatilidade dos fluxos de caixa esperados. O trabalho não visa recomendar estratégias de hedge para determinada situação de mercado mas apenas demonstra, de forma empírica, quais os resultados seriam obtidos caso certas estratégias fossem adotadas, sabendo-se que inúmeras outras poderiam ser criadas para a mesma situação de mercado. Os resultados sugerem alguns insights sobre a utilização de derivativos por empresas não-financeiras sendo um tema relativamente novo para empresas brasileiras.

Submitted by Alice Singer (lilicasinger@gmail.com) on 2013-02-27T16:25:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Alice.pdf: 1210322 bytes, checksum: a587136246bce1145c8096d499e28342 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Eliene Soares da Silva (eliene.silva@fgv.br) on 2013-02-27T16:28:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Alice.pdf: 1210322 bytes, checksum: a587136246bce1145c8096d499e28342 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-02-27T16:33:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Alice.pdf: 1210322 bytes, checksum: a587136246bce1145c8096d499e28342 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-31 / Esse estudo foi motivado pela falta de bons fundos de investimento multimercado abertos para captação no Brasil e tem como objetivo analisar a viabilidade de utilizar a análise de estilo baseada em retorno para clonar retornos e comportamento de determinados fundos de investimento multimercado do mercado brasileiro. Modelos já testados no exterior e no Brasil foram pesquisados e optou-se por adaptar o modelo linear proposto por LIMA e VICENTE (2007). Verificou-se que o modelo de espaço de estados é mais adequado para clonar retornos de determinados fundos de investimento do que o modelo de regressão com parâmetros fixos. Resultados animadores foram obtidos para quatro dos cinco fundos analisados nesse estudo. / This work was motivated by the lack of hedge funds opened for new investments in Brazil and it aims to analyze the feasibility of using the style analyses to clone returns and behavior of certain Brazilian hedge funds. Models already tested abroad and in Brazil were investigated and it was decided to adapt the linear model proposed by LIMA and VICENTE (2007). It was found that the state space model is more suitable for cloning returns of certain hedge funds than fixed parameters regression models. Encouraging results were obtained for four of the five funds analyzed in this study.