Syftet med studien är att undersöka bitcoins kapacitet som hedge gentemot den svenska aktiemarknaden. För att identifiera om korrelation existerar mellan avkastningen i bitcoin och SIX30RX (OMXS30 med utdelning) och således besvara forskningsfrågan studeras associationen. Tidsperioden som studeras är 2012-01-02 till 2016-10-21. Associationen undersöks med hjälp av regressionsmodeller. Resultatet visar att bitcoin inte är korrelerat med avkastningen för SIX30RX under den studerade tidsperioden. Bitcoin kan således klassificeras som en hedge gentemot den svenska aktiemarknaden. / This paper examines bitcoin’s capacity as a hedge towards the Swedish stock market. To identify if correlation exists between the returns of bitcoin and SIX30RX (OMXS 30 including dividends) and thus respond to the research question the association is investigated. The time period considered is 2012-01-02 to 2016-10-21. Association is analysed using regression models. The results demonstrate that bitcoin is uncorrelated with the return for SIX30RX during this time period. Therefore, bitcoin can be classified as a hedge against the Swedish stock market.

In this paper, the popular fundamental analysis model Economic Value Added is tested for any ability to generate returns above that explained by book-to-market effects on American large cap stocks. A zero net-investment hedge portfolio-test was undertaken where the Economic Value Added® fundamental analysis was applied on a sample of large cap stocks, sorted into quintiles after book to market valuation. The portfolio investing in the extreme quintiles gained positive returns between the years 1999 – 2010 equal to an average yearly total return of 7,32 %. During the test-period, the benchmark portfolio constituent of stocks sorted in the same way but without the Economic Value Added® analysis only managed to score returns equaling 2,3 %, adding evidence in favor of the Economic Value Added® analysis. The Economic Value Added also showed a better risk-profile than the benchmark portfolio, measured as the Modigliani Risk-Adjusted Performance over the entire period, further acknowledging the abnormal returns. However, the Economic Value Added® sample portfolios where unevenly distributed regarding number of stocks, foremost in the short-sold part for some years, mitigating the test as strong evidence in favor of the Economic Value Added® analysis. An independent samples t-test also did not reject the null hypothesis. Despite the mixed results of the test, the strength in the specification of sample and choice of method leads us to conclude that that the Economic Value Added® seems like a moderately effective tool for identifying mispriced stocks.

本研究探討通貨膨脹風險下長期投資人之最適資產配置。由於長年期通貨膨脹之估計誤差於投資決策上容易產生顯著差異，我們延伸 Brennan and Xia (2002)的模型，嘗試以消費者物價指數預估及修正通貨膨脹率，利用貝氏過濾方法預估未來通貨膨脹率。以平賭過程描述基金的限制條件，最適化投資人之效用值求得加入可預測性效果後之最適多期資產組合模型。研究結果顯示，長期投資人之最適策略可表示為固定比例股票指數基金及不同存續期間固定收益基金之組合。以不同存續期間之固定收益債券可以有效建構規避通貨膨脹風險之避險組合。本研究並提供數值計算與分析。 / This paper examines the optimal portfolio selection for a long-term investor. In order to consider the uncertainty of inflation rate, we extend the work in Brennan and Xia (2002) and use the consumer price index (CPI) to estimate and update the inflation rate through the filtering mechanism. The stochastic real interest rate is assumed to follow the Vasicek-type model. The investor’s optimal portfolio selection is solved through the Martingale method. The result is given in a simple closed form solution. We show that the optimal strategy for the fund manager in hedging the inflation uncertainty is to incorporate a dynamic fixed income portfolio with different durations. Numerical illustration is provided to clarify our findings.

Sloan（1996）研究指出，投資人無法完全地分辨出應計項目與現金流量間盈餘持續性的差別，導致對應計項目資訊反應過度，而對現金流量資訊則反應不足，因此公司擁有相對較高（低）的應計項目使用金額，預期會有負（正）的未來股票異常報酬率，此種存在於應計項目與未來來股票異常報酬率間之負向關係，即本文所稱之「應計項目異常現象」。 投資人方面，本研究依資訊取得優勢，區分為內部關係人、機構投資人（外資、投信、自營商）與自然人；投資人持股行為則分別以持股比例與持股比例變動代表。此外，並將應計項目分別以總應計項目與總應計項目組成要素下之個別營運資金應計項目（應收帳款變動數、存貨變動數與應付帳款變動數）作衡量。首先測試應計項目異常現象是否存在於我國，再利用應計項目異常現象建構之套利投資組合，買進最低應計項目金額的投資組合而賣出最高應計項目金額的投資組合，探討應計項目異常現象與投資人持股行為之關聯性。 實證結果顯示，應計項目異常現象存在於我國，亦存在於個別營運資金應計項目。持股比例方面，外資與內部關係人似乎能利用應計項目異常現象形成之套利投資組合；當總應計項目的金額愈低，持股比例會愈高，但在不同應計項目的衡量方法下會有不同的結果。持股比例變動方面，除內部關係人與自然人稍佳之外，本研究設計之迴歸模型並無對應計項目與投資人持股比例變動間之關聯性有足夠的解釋能力。此外，第二年度的內部關係人持股比例變動雖與總應計項目、存貨變動數有負向的關聯性，惟統計結果並不顯著。 關鍵字：應計項目異常現象、投資人、持股行為、應計項目、機構投資人、內 部關係人、自然人、套利投資組合 / Sloan（1996）results indicate investors failing to distinguish fully between the different properties of the accrual and cash flow components of earnings. This leads to overreaction of the information contained in the accrual components of earnings and underreaction of the cash flow components of earnings.Consequently,firms with relatively high (low) levels of accruals experience negative (positive) future abnormal stock returns. The negative relationship between accounting accruals and subsequent stock returns calls the “Accruals anomaly” in this paper. With repect to the investors, I distinguish them from the advantage of obtaining the information into insiders, institution investors (QFII, mutual funds, security dealers), and individual investors; then use the percentage of the investors’ holding and the percentage of the investors’ holding change to represent the investors’ holding behavior. Besides, I use the total accruals and individual working capital accruals（change in accounts receive, change in inventory, and change in minus accounts payable）to measure accruals. Firstly, I test whether the accruals anomaly exists in our country or not, then exploit the hedge portfolio formed by accruals anomaly,by taking a long position in the stock of firms reporting relatively low levels of accruals and a short position in the stock of firms reporting relatively high levels of accruals generates positive abnormal stock returns to probe into the association between accruals anomaly and investors’ holding behavior. The results suggested that accruals anomaly indeed exists in our country and the individual working capital accruals. With regard to the percentage of the investors holding, QFII and insiders seems to capable of exploiting the hedge portfolio formed by accruals anomaly; when firms with relatively low levels of total accruals experience the percentage of the high investors holding,but there have different results of using dissimilar measurement of accruals. For the percentage of the investors holding change, this paper’s regression model doesn’t have enough capability of explaining the association between accruals and percentage of the investors holding change except insiders and individual investors. Furthermore, although the percentage of the insiders’ holding change in the second year is negatively correlated with total accruals and change in inventory, the empirical results are not significant. Key words: accrual anomaly, investors, holding behavior, accruals, institution investors, insiders, individual investors, hedge portfolio