In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, an environment of historically low interest rates and extensive household indebtedness in the OECD countries have triggered a vivid debate on whether central banks should react to house price fluctuations in their pursuit of monetary policy. In Sweden, a period of low policy rates and house price inflation was halted when the central bank increased the interest rates in 2010. This paper studies whether the Riksbank reacted to house prices in 1993-2013. Using Bayesian methods and quarterly data, I estimate a DSGE model with patient and impatient households, where the central bank reacts to house price inflation. The results suggest that the Riksbank did respond to house prices during the sample period. The findings are robust and plausible from an economic point of view.

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This paper has three chapters. In the first chapter, we develop a measure of housing sentiment for 24 cities in China by parsing through newspaper articles from 2006 to 2017.We find that the sentiment index has strong predictive power for future house prices even after controlling for past price changes and macroeconomic fundamentals. The index leads price movements by nearly 9 months, and it is highly correlated with other survey expectations measures that come with a significant time lag. In the second chapter, we show that short term house price movement is predictable by solely using newspaper and historical price change. In the last chapter, using the sentiment index constructed from newspaper, we got empirical results to show that some people are forward-looking when deciding default and a positive sentiment (anticipated house price appreciation) will lower the Z score of probability of default by 0.028. / Doctor of Philosophy / This paper has three chapters. In the first chapter, we develop a measure of housing sentiment for 24 cities in China by parsing through newspaper articles from 2006 to 2017. Two sentiment index were created using text mining method based on keywords matching and machine learning respectively.We find that the sentiment index has strong predictive power for future house prices even after controlling for past price changes and macroeconomic fundamentals. The index leads price movements by nearly 9 months, and it is highly correlated with other survey expectations measures that come with a significant time lag. In contrast, we find much weaker feedback coming from past prices to current sentiment. In the second chapter, we show that short term house price movement is predictable by solely using newspaper and historical price change. The accuracy of the prediction could be up to 0.96 for out of sample prediction. We first use a text mining method to transfer all the text information into numerical vector space, which is able to represent the extracted full information contained in a text. Then by adopting machine learning models of Neural networks, SVM, and random forest, we classified the newspaper into 1 (up) and 0 (down) group and constructed an index as the mean label accordingly. In the last chapter, by merging the Fannie Mae loan performance data with the sentiment index constructed from newspaper as well as the macro variables about local market, we got empirical results to show that some people are forward-looking when deciding default and a positive sentiment ( anticipated house price appreciation) will lower the Z score of probability of default by 0.028. We found that during the recession period, people access more information when they try to default, on top of the traditional econ conditions and historical house price, they also consider the future house price change. Moreover, borrowers with high income, high home value, and high FICO scores tend to pay more attention to future price change. However, for those who are less experienced in this game (first time home buyer), they only pay attention to the historical price change during the recession period.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what relation house prices have with regional migration in Sweden, with the interest of the study being to investigate how regional migration is affected by differentials in house prices and to see how it has affected migration choices for labor, and, to see if this relationship differed in 2007 and 2017. Theories surrounding regional house prices, regional migration, regional labor mobility, commuting, and accessibility are used to lay the foundation and support the empirical method. The regressions are run using cross-sectional data for the years 2007 and 2017. Whilst the literature review suggests that average house prices should have a negative relation towards in-migration, the conducted regression showcases a positive relation towards in-migration. Furthermore, the study concludes that there are many different variables that can affect regional migration. The results show that the effect of house prices has become weaker in the year 2017 compared to 2007, which could showcase that individuals have changed how they approach migration decision.

This thesis explores the relationship between interest rates, house prices and main macroeconomic variables. In particular, I examine how monetary policy affects house prices in the Czech Republic. The hypotheses assume that an increase in the interest rate that tends to decrease house prices also reduces output and inflation simultaneously. Therefore, the latter would imply that the monetary authority faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability. The empirical analysis is based on a vector autoregression model and the monetary policy shock is retrieved by the Cholesky decomposition. As for the results, the findings of the thesis conclude that there is a costly trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability within the Czech economy.

Residential property price premia (‘premia’) have long fascinated investors, particularly in times of euphoria, but their social, climatic and urban ramifications are much wider. A proper understanding of premia is hindered by the variety of exogenous influences determining them. They occur within idiosyncratic, complex, and continuously reconfiguring metropoli, conditioned by topography, history, regime, commerce, and culture. Given imperfectly competitive housing markets, conventional explanations for premia are either restricted to their financial dissection, trawl though metrics or cast around for hedonic coefficients. However, premia illuminate affordability and other problems in the broader planning and social debate. With the general significance of premia clarified, the research question of the project becomes: ‘What drives residential property price premium evolution in a metropolis?’ A complete answer involves dissecting the nature and establishing the location of putative premia and disentangling the influence and interactions of their various price drivers. To provide it, the project conducts a property and urban literature review. Based on theory’s insight that higher order contains lower order systems, it develops and investigates a general systems model of residential premia with two modes. The system is conditioned by ideology but forced by population and capital inflows. Within it, premia mutate, influenced by a nested hierarchy of more or less contaminated information. To investigate the model and its different modes, the project employs tests across system pointers, at the macro, meso (all urban) and micro spatial resolutions. First, the turbulence and permeability of residential property markets to exogenous influences is assessed. The project then looks at the urban mosaic in the growing Sunbelt migration city of Brisbane, Australia, over the boom period from 1998-2004. Locally, it conducts a case study and survey in one micro-location, seeking clues in transaction patterns (output), property system agents (components) and the information they use (feedback mechanisms). Finally, the project draws some relevant policy implications. Its key findings are that urban housing markets are open, complex and polarised. In an exuberant economic climate, migration and debt fuel metropolitan price escalation. Public urban initiatives reinforce central incumbent affluence or spark fresh bouts of speculation. Individual premia are heterogeneous but often feed off local construction projects or iconic refurbishment. Reflecting their demographics and motives, agent risk appetites are diverse although investors are usually less averse to renewal. System feedback involves a congruence of media and local activity signals. Neither local conviviality nor Bohemian influences are, by themselves, significant. Rather, buyer rationality is validated by post-purchase infrastructure completions. The thesis of this project is, hence, that in euphoric capital markets, migration and debt accelerates the endogenous mutation of property from homes within a community towards speculative paper assets. The implication is that the excessive proliferation of premia indicates economic imbalance and urban malaise which requires recognition and treatment. While premia are paid for perceived privilege or prospects, cognitive risk representations and expectations evolve. Sometimes judgment is contaminated by media fantasy but often validated by accommodating government policy and central revitalisation projects. Yet, within a wider social and ecological remit, rampant premia suggest flaws in urban strategy, governance and planning practice. In terms of windfall events or unearned rent, the cumulative effects of ill-considered projects and price distortions can be ugly and wasteful. They alienate and accentuate spatial privilege without generating sustainable jobs. The project has procedural and substantive policy implications. The dynamics of residential premia cannot be disentangled from capital market volatility, urban fragmentation and reconstitution. Enlightened property development requires visionary urban planning beyond electoral cycles. Rather than unregulated markets or disjointed incrementalism, the project points to the advantages of cohesive projects and inclusive hubs. It impels ecological and people-focused development to nurture capable, connected and considerate edge communities. Its first steps are theoretical recognition, policy clarification, government reform, market constraints, price and tax rationalisation and spatial transparency.

Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent. This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time. The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market. / Husköp är för de flesta människor deras livs största investering och det är därför många faktorer som först måste vägas in varav den viktigaste förmodligen är priset. Huspriserna i Sverige har sedan 1981 nästan fyrdubblats, en utveckling som är mycket kraftigare än inflationen samma tid. Den här kandidatuppsatsen avser att undersöka Stockholmregionens småhuspriser åren 1981-2007 och dess relation till makroekonomiska faktorer. Genom att använda en OLS regression med insamlad data för Stockholms alla kommuner och makroekonomiska teorier, visar vi hur utvalda makroekonomiska variabler påverkar småhuspriserna generellt, i hög- samt lågkonjunktur. Resultat och analys visar att om småhuspriserna går upp är tenderar Stockholms befolkning att lägga en större del av deras inkomst på räntekostnader och tvärtom när priserna går ner. En psykologisk aspekt har en viktig del i dessa upp och nedgångar, i en uppgång startar en spekulationsperiod då människor vill vara en del ägandet i den uppåtgående husmarknad medans i en nergång skapas en sorts konvergens och en rad faktorer påverkar varandra i en spiralliknande nedåt trend. Denna trend kan förklaras i DiPasquales och Wheatons assets market model där det positiva förhållandet mellan marknader som hyresmarknaden, kreditmarknaden, byggmarknaden och tillgångsmarknaden står i fokus. Den viktigaste slutsatsen i uppsatsen är att makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar småhuspriserna helt olika beroende på om ekonomin är i en hög eller lågkonjunktur. Slutligen bör nämnas hur viktigt hus- och fastighetsmarknaden är för en ekonomi genom dess påverkan på kreditmarknaden och inflationen.

<p>Comprised of three related chapters, this dissertation evaluates the effects of the North Carolina School Accountability System on agents in different markets using, in most part, school data provided by the North Carolina Education Research Data Center. North Carolina introduced its primary school improvement program, the ABCs of NC, in 1997. The model includes growth and performance composites and recognized/rewarded schools for performing well. In response to the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, the state introduced a second accountability program, AYP, to run in conjunction with the ABC system. The AYP program focuses on closing the achievement gap and its primary goal is for all public school children to perform at grade level in reading and mathematics by the end of the 2013-14 school year. Failure to show improvement toward this goal leads to sanctions and increased accountability pressures at the school level. This dissertation seeks to determine the impact of the school accountability program on two groups of individuals - teachers and homebuyers.</p><p>Chapter 1 examines the influence of school accountability on teacher mobility. I estimate the effect of accountability incentives - teacher bonuses under the ABCs, and accountability pressures - threats and sanctions under AYP, on teacher mobility between schools. I investigate how the state's two accountability systems affect the distribution of teachers to schools, and in particular the willingness of quality teachers to teach in schools where student achievement is low. I provide empirical evidence on the differential effects the two accountability systems have on the ability of low-performing schools to employ quality teachers. It may be that bonus given under the state's ABC system can help to offset high turnover rates in schools that face increased accountability pressure under the AYP system. Or conversely, if schools that face increased accountability pressure are not able to perform well enough to receive bonuses it may lead to even higher turnover rates. These higher turnover rates will undoubtedly place personal burdens on students, administrators, and parents; ultimately undermining the primary goals of performance gains under school accountability.</p><p>In Chapter 2, I examine the affect the labeling of schools under the ABC system has on the housing market. Since the passing of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001, each state is required to publicly report school quality measures and student test performance. Many states, including North Carolina, were already reporting their own quality measure and since 2002 have included an additional quality measure to meet the newer federal requirements. There has been extensive research documenting the relationship between housing prices and test scores at local public schools. Given the research, one may presume additional information about school quality to also influence the housing market.</p><p>This chapter examines whether state reported school quality measures influence household sorting decisions, using a regression discontinuity approach and comprehensive data on real estate transactions over the period 2003-2007. The results suggest that even when taking into account student performance on test scores and other variables the market's response to the release of information related to school quality provided by the state's recognition system is significant.</p><p>Chapter 3 provides a narrative on the extent to which public perceptions of the quality of local schools correspond to actual service quality. The chapter also discusses ways in which the relationship between actual and perceived school quality may vary across different groups of people, specifically parents of school-age children, homeowners, and minority or low-income households. The results in chapter 2 suggest that public accountability systems may have a causal effect on citizen perceptions of service quality.</p><p> However, due to data limitations, very few economics studies have analyzed the relationship between school accountability and public perceptions. With the use of a perceptions survey of North Carolina residents, I propose a study investigating public perceptions of the quality of public schools and the degree to which they freely available information about the level of school quality and student performance at the schools.</p> / Dissertation

<p> </p><p>Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent.</p><p>This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time.</p><p>The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market.</p><p> </p> / <p> </p><p>Husköp är för de flesta människor deras livs största investering och det är därför många faktorer som först måste vägas in varav den viktigaste förmodligen är priset. Huspriserna i Sverige har sedan 1981 nästan fyrdubblats, en utveckling som är mycket kraftigare än inflationen samma tid.</p><p>Den här kandidatuppsatsen avser att undersöka Stockholmregionens småhuspriser åren 1981-2007 och dess relation till makroekonomiska faktorer. Genom att använda en OLS regression med insamlad data för Stockholms alla kommuner och makroekonomiska teorier, visar vi hur utvalda makroekonomiska variabler påverkar småhuspriserna generellt, i hög- samt lågkonjunktur.</p><p>Resultat och analys visar att om småhuspriserna går upp är tenderar Stockholms befolkning att lägga en större del av deras inkomst på räntekostnader och tvärtom när priserna går ner. En psykologisk aspekt har en viktig del i dessa upp och nedgångar, i en uppgång startar en spekulationsperiod då människor vill vara en del ägandet i den uppåtgående husmarknad medans i en nergång skapas en sorts konvergens och en rad faktorer påverkar varandra i en spiralliknande nedåt trend. Denna trend kan förklaras i DiPasquales och Wheatons assets market model där det positiva förhållandet mellan marknader som hyresmarknaden, kreditmarknaden, byggmarknaden och tillgångsmarknaden står i fokus. Den viktigaste slutsatsen i uppsatsen är att makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar småhuspriserna helt olika beroende på om ekonomin är i en hög eller lågkonjunktur. Slutligen bör nämnas hur viktigt hus- och fastighetsmarknaden är för en ekonomi genom dess påverkan på kreditmarknaden och inflationen.</p><p> </p>

Chapter 1 investigates whether physicians' financial incentives influence health care supply, technology diffusion, and resulting patient outcomes. In 1997, Medicare consolidated the geographic regions across which it adjusts payments for physician services, generating area-specific price shocks that are plausibly exogenous with respect to health care demand. Areas with higher payment shocks experience significant increases in health care supply. On average, a 2 percent increase in payment rates leads to a 5 percent increase in care provision per patient. Elective procedures such as cataract surgery respond twice as strongly as less discretionary services like dialysis. Higher reimbursements also increase the pace of technology diffusion, as non-radiologists acquire magnetic resonance imaging scanners more readily when prices increase. The magnitudes of our empirical findings imply that changing provider incentives explain up to one third of recent growth in spending on physician services. The incremental care has no significant impacts on mortality, hospitalizations, or heart attacks. In chapter 2, we analyze bargaining between health care providers and private insurers in the shadow of large public insurance programs. Using several distinct sources of variation in Medicares payment rates, we find robust evidence that private insurers adapt to Medicare pricing. The relationship between private and public prices is both significantly positive and significantly less than one-for-one. The results reject both the strong view that private insurers mimic Medicare and views that emphasize cost-shifting as the predominant feature of these markets. Private responses to Medicare payments are larger in states with more competitive insurance markets. The evidence is consistent with models in which Medicares payment rates serve as a basis for negotiations between insurers and provider networks. Chapter 3 revisits the standard user cost model of housing prices and concludes that the predicted impact of interest rates on prices is much lower once the model is generalized to include mean-reverting interest rates, mobility, prepayment, elastic housing supply, and credit-constrained home buyers. The modest predicted impact of interest rates on prices is in line with empirical estimates, and suggests that lower real rates can explain only one-fifth of the rise in prices from 1996 to 2006. / Economics