Survivors of natural disaster may suffer from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). In developing nations, such as the Honduras, poverty and limited resources mean that disaster relief from outside the country is needed. Researchers (Crigger, Holcomb, and Weiss, 1999) interviewed survivors of Hurricane Mitch. They reported overwhelming feelings of helplessness/powerlessness among disaster survivors. They also raised the question of whether this was evidence of the presence of PTSD. The purpose of this retrospective analysis of symptoms reported by urban Hondurans in the aftermath of Hurricane Mitch was to examine the possibility that these symptoms were related to PTSD. A sample of 345 clinic health forms was analyzed. The research questions were: 1) What were the chief complaints of urban Hondurans seen in the mission clinics over a 5-day period in March of 1999? 2) Do the urban Hondurans attribute their illness to the effects of Hurricane Mitch? 3) Are reported symptoms consistent with a diagnosis of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder? 4) What are the nursing implications for future post-disaster interventions in developing nations? While the findings of this study are not statistically significant, the clinical significance cannot be ignored. Several symptoms which have been well documented to be associated with PTSD were reported with nearly twice the expected frequency by subjects who also reported being sick as a consequence of Hurricane Mitch. In PTSD, early identification and intervention, is directly related to the reduced rate of comorbidity and chronicity of the disorder.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) Irene and Sandy caused major damages in back to back years to the most densely populated city in the United States stunning the residents with storms linked to seemingly impossible probabilities. Such activity has raised questions about the effect of non-stationary aspects within atmospheric circulation on storm behavior and some assumptions inherent in previous hazard studies of the New York City (NYC) area. This study analyzes statistical aspects of hazard quantification for this area related to this non-stationarity and statistical characterization. In particular this study investigates the presence of multiple populations of storms, it also tests current assumptions inherent in these previous studies which produce surge hazards which differ significantly and it investigates a natural relationship between storm characteristics and large scale climate variations through Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) of the sea surface pressure. The findings of this study show that there is a statistically significant influence of climate variability on storm frequency, intensity and direction within the Battery and vicinity (BAV, Battery Park and surrounding region). Variations in large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns as well as sea surface temperature appear to be significantly affecting the surge hazard for this region. This study also shows there is a statistically significant relationship between storm heading and intensity as well as the presence of multiple populations of storms driven by different atmospheric states that behave with alternate characteristics. These multiple populations appear to be significantly influencing the overall average of storm behavior causing inaccurate assumptions in hazard quantification which leads to misestimation in risks.

Master of Science / Department of Statistics / John E. Boyer Jr / The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the methods used for allocating disaster funds to assist commercial fishery participants as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 and to examine alternative methods to aid in determining an efficient criterion for allocating public funds for fisheries assistance. The trip ticket data managed by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries were used and analyzed using a cluster analysis. Results from the clustering procedures show that commercial fishermen consist of seven clusters, while wholesale/retail seafood dealers consist of six clusters. The three tiers into which commercial fishermen were originally classified can be extended to at least eleven (11) clusters, made up of three (3) clusters in tier 1 and an equal number of clusters (4) clusters in tier 2 and tier 3. Similarly, the original three tiers of wholesale/retail seafood dealers can be reclassified into at least nine (9) clusters with two clusters in tier 1, four (4) clusters in tier 2 and three (3) clusters in tier 3. As a result of the clustering reclassifications, alternative compensation plans were developed for the commercial fishermen and wholesale/retail seafood dealers. These alternative compensation plans suggest a reallocation of disaster assistance funds among individual groups of fishermen and among individual groups of dealers. We finally recommend that alternative classification methods should always be considered in order to select the most efficient criterion for allocating public funds in the future.

Over the past 40 years, coral cover has reduced by as much as 80%. At the same time, Coral Reefs are coming under increasing threat from hurricanes, as climate change is expected to increase the intensity of hurricanes. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to understand the effect of hurricanes on a coral population. This Thesis focuses on the reef-building coral Montastraea annularis. This species once dominated Caribbean Coral Reefs, but is fast being replaced by faster growing more opportunistic species. It is important that the underlying dynamics of the decline is understood, if managers stand any chance of reversing this decline. The aim of this Thesis is to investigate the effect of hurricane activity on the dynamics of the reef-building coral Montastraea annularis. To achieve this the Integral Projection Model (IPM) method was adopted and the results compared to those produced using the more traditional method of Population Projection Matrix (PPM) method. The models were fitted using census data from June 1998 to January 2003, which described the area of individual coral patches on a sample of ramets on Glovers Reef, Belize. Glovers Reef is a marine reserve that lies 30km off the coast of Belize and 15km east of the main barrier reef. Three hurricanes struck Glovers Reef during the study: Hurricane Mitch (October 1998), Hurricane Keith (September 2000) and Hurricane Iris (October 2001). The data have been divided by two different methods in order to test two research questions, firstly if the initial trauma following a hurricane affects the long term dynamics of a population and, secondly, if the dynamics exhibited during a hurricane varied with hurricane strength. In this Thesis five main results are shown: 1. All models for all divisions of data are in long term decline. 2. As initial trauma increased, the long term growth rates decreased, conversely the short term extremes increased. 3. Fragmentation is more likely as patch size increased and more likely under stronger hurricanes. 4. Integral Projection Modelling painted a similar picture to Population Projection Matrix models and should be a preferred method of analysis.5. Interaction of the IPMs can be used to model the changing occurrence of hurricanes under climate change. It is shown that with increased intensity, the population could become extinct 6.3 years sooner. This research is the first step in modelling coral patch populations by the IPM method. It suggests possible functional forms and compares the results with the PPM method. Further research is required into the biological functions which drive fragmentation, the method by which large patches divide into groups of smaller patches. The conclusions from this Thesis add to the growing body of knowledge concerning the response of coral species to hurricanes, focusing on the importance of understanding patch dynamics, in order to understand colonial dynamics.

A pesquisa teve como objetivo central investigar se os furacões do Oceano Atlântico Tropical Norte são capazes de influenciar a América do Sul (AS), principalmente no que se refere aos padrões de precipitação e circulação atmosférica. No entanto, como os furacões possuem uma gama de variedades de trajetórias, gêneses e decaimento, a pesquisa se restringiu apenas a avaliação dos furacões que poderiam causar maiores impactos na atmosfera da AS, sobretudo no norte do continente. Nesse sentido duas hipóteses foram estabelecidas concernente a trajetória e intensidades dos furacões. Para a trajetória a hipótese era de que quanto mais próximo da AS os furacões transitassem maior seria seu grau de interação com o continente ao passo que os furacões que atingissem a categoria 5 na escala de intensidade Saffir-Simpson também poderiam exercer maiores influências. Assim, através desses critérios, 6 furacões foram selecionados entre os anos de 1988-2017 e estes foram avaliados com base nos dados do CHIRPS e da reanálise ERA Interim, além de simulações numéricas com o modelo dinâmico GCM DREAM. Os resultados mostraram que, de fato, os furacões conseguiam impactar a atmosfera da AS uma vez que nos baixos níveis da troposfera foram observados modificações nos alísios, interferência na posição da Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ZCIT) e influência na nebulosidade, pressão, temperatura e umidade do norte da AS. Além disso, foram constatadas interações entre os furacões e a Alta Subtropical do Atlântico Sul (ASAS), onde essa última canalizava parte dos seus escoamentos para os furacões que, por sua vez, se intensificavam. Já para os altos níveis da troposfera, foram observados o surgimento de um anticiclone no Noroeste (NO) da AS como resposta a existência dos furacões, sendo que após formado esse anticiclone sugere uma possível interação com os furacões uma vez que ele se deslocava segundo o movimento dos mesmos. Além dessas duas abordagens a pesquisa também se utilizou das Funções dos Modos Normais no sentido de reconstituir o campo de vento horizontal através da contribuição individual de cada onda atmosférica excitada a partir de um furacão. Nessa etapa escolheu-se um dos furacões selecionados e os resultados indicaram que as principais ondas envolvidas nas características observadas nos baixos níveis da troposfera como, por exemplo, ciclones ou sistemas frontais, vinham das ondas de Rossby e Gravidade-Inercial (GI). Já para os altos níveis as ondas atmosféricas envolvidas no processo de formação do anticiclone no NO da AS foram as ondas de Rossby, GI e as ondas Mistas de Rossby-Gravidade (MRG), sendo que essa última indicava justamente uma comunicação entre os dois hemisférios. No que se refere as ondas de Rossby elas se sobressaíram em todos nos níveis atmosféricos devido a relação delas com a geostrofia ao passo que as ondas GI ficaram restritas em mostrar apenas processos de divergência, logo elas foram úteis para identificar regiões ligadas a precipitação. Com relação aos resultados para os padrões de precipitação foram observadas durante a passagem dos furacões anomalias positivas no norte da AS e anomalias negativas no Brasil Central, sendo que esse resultado foi interpretado como sendo um reflexo do aumento das concentrações de momento e umidade na região norte da AS por onde os furacões transitavam. Por fim, foi avaliado o caso do furacão Irma que teve uma trajetória distante da AS. Esse furacão foi avaliado no sentindo de testar as hipóteses feitas anteriormente e os resultados mostraram que esse furacão não conseguiu exercer impacto na atmosfera da AS. Desse modo, concluiu-se que os furacões do Oceano Atlântico conseguem impactar a atmosfera da AS como indicou os resultados, porém que isso só ocorrerá se eles descreverem uma trajetória muito próxima ao continente sul-americano. / The main objective of this research is to investigate whether hurricanes from the North Tropical Atlantic Ocean can influence the South Americans atmosphere, especially in terms of circulation and precipitation patterns. However, since hurricanes have a great range of trajectories, genesis and decay this research only focused the study of hurricanes that may impact the South American, particularly in the northern continental region. In this sense, two hypotheses were established about the trajectory and intensities of hurricanes. For the trajectory, the hypothesis is that the closer the hurricanes pass by South America the greater would be their degree of interaction with the South American atmosphere variability. Also, the higher the Hurricanes classification, for instance, category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, the influence could be increased. Following this criteria 6 hurricanes were selected between the years 1988-2017 and they were evaluated based on ERA Interim reanalysis and CHIRPS data, as well as numerical simulations using the dynamic GCM DREAM model. The results showed that these hurricanes really impacted the atmosphere of the South America. At lower levels of the troposphere, the passage of hurricanes caused trade winds deformation, interference in the Intertropical Convergence Zones (ITCZ) position, besides of the influence on the cloudiness, pressure, temperature and moist in the north of the continent. In addition, it was detected interactions between hurricanes and the South Atlantic Subtropical High (SASH), where the SASH sustained the wind flows towards the hurricanes, supporting their intensification. Regarding the results for the upper levels of the troposphere it was observed the development of an anticyclone in the Northwest of South America as a response to the hurricane presence. It was noticed that this anticyclone interacts with the hurricanes once it moves according to their movement. In addition to these two approaches, it was also used the Normal Mode Functions in order to reconstruct the horizontal wind field through the individual contribution of each atmospheric waves excited from a hurricane. One of the selected hurricanes was chosen and the results indicated the main waves related to the characteristics observed at lower levels of the troposphere are the Rossby and Gravity-Inertial (GI) waves. For the upper levels, the atmospheric waves related with the formation of the anticyclone in northwestern South Americas were the Rossby, GI and the Mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) modes, where the MRG waves clearly show the interaction between the two hemispheres. The Rossby waves excelled at all atmospheric levels due to their relationship to the geostrophic approach, while the GI waves only showed divergence processes, being useful to identify regions linked to precipitation. The precipitation patterns during the hurricanes passage generates positive anomalies in the north of the South America and negative anomalies in central Brazil. This result was interpreted as an increase of momentum and moist concentrations in the South Americas northern region due to the interaction with the hurricanes. As a case study the hurricane Irma was investigated. This hurricane was intense but its track was distant of the South America being evaluated in the order to test the hypotheses previously assumed. The results indicated that the hurricane Irma did not have any impact in the South Americans atmosphere, where not interations with SASH, temperature or moist were observed. In summary, it was observed that North Atlantic Ocean hurricanes can influence the South Americas atmosphere when their trajectories are close to the South American continent.

The spatial and temporal complexity of tropical cyclones (TCs) raises a number of scientific questions regarding their genesis, movement, intensification, and variability. In this dissertation, the principal goal is to determine the current state of predictability for each of these processes. To quantify the current extent of tropical cyclone predictability, we assess probabilistic forecasts from the most advanced global numerical weather prediction system to date, the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS). Using a new false alarm clustering technique to maximize the utility of the VarEPS, the ensemble system is shown to provide well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for TC genesis through a lead-time of one week, and pregenesis track forecasts with similar skill compared to the VarEPS's postgenesis track forecasts. To quantify the predictability of TCs on intraseasonal time scales, forecasts from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System (ECMFS) are examined for the North Atlantic Ocean. From this assessment, dynamically based forecasts from the ECMFS provide forecast skill exceeding climatology out to weeks three and four for portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean and the Main Development Region. Forecast skill in these regions is traced to the model's ability to capture correctly the variability in deep-layer vertical wind shear, the relative frequency of easterly waves moving through these regions, and the intraseasonal modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. On interannual time scales, the predictability of TCs is examined by considering their relationship with tropical Atlantic easterly waves. First, a set of easterly wave climatologies for the CFS-R, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis are developed using a new easterly wave-tracking algorithm. From the reanalysis-derived climatologies, a moderately positive and statistically significant relationship is seen with tropical Atlantic TCs. In relation to large-scale climate modes, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) exhibit the strongest positive covariability with Atlantic easterly wave frequency. Besides changes in the number of easterly waves, the intensification efficiency of easterly waves has also been evaluated. These findings offer a plausible physical explanation for the recent increase in the number of NATL TCs, as it has been concomitant with an increasing trend in both the number of tropical Atlantic easterly waves and intensification efficiency. The last component of this dissertation examines how the historical variability in U.S. landfalling TCs has impacted the annual TC tornado record. To reconcile the inhomogeneous, historical tornado record, two statistical tornado models, developed from a set of a priori predictors for TC tornado formation, are used to reconstruct the TC tornado climatology. While the synthetic TC tornado record reflects decadal scale variations in association with the AMO, a comparison of the current warm phase of the AMO with the previous warm phase period shows that the median number of tornadoes per Gulf TC landfall has significantly increased. This change likely reflects the increase in median TC size (by 35%) of Gulf landfalling TCs along with an increased frequency of large TCs at landfall.

Towards advancing the indices of hurricane energetics that are associated with potential damage, we develop a new methodology for calculating integrated kinetic energy (IKE) climatology. A simple, observation and dynamical - based radial wind speed model is used with the Extended Best Track Data Set to calculate IKE for North Atlantic Hurricanes from 1988 to 2008. The method is evaluated against previous methods of tropical cyclone intensity analysis, and the results are compared to traditional indices in terms of characterizing storm energetics and relating to storm surge. It is shown that the traditional indices are inaccurate measurements of hurricane energetics, and the assumptions that they are based on are not valid. Furthermore, in analyzing storm surge, it is possible that tropical cyclone damage is more strongly correlated with IKE rather than maximum wind speed.

Notre thèse présente une approche sociale et environnementale de l'histoire des cyclones dans la société réunionnaise : il s'agit d'évaluer l'impact d'un événement destructeur, le cyclone, dans la mémoire collective et individuelle, dans l'évolution des sciences, des techniques, des alertes, de la gestion de la crise, de l'organisation des secours et de l'aménagement du territoire. Le cyclone peut donc être un objet d'Histoire à part entière. Parallèlement, notre recherche consiste à comprendre les conséquences des cyclones d'un point de vue géographique et humain. L'impact des cyclones est différent selon le lieu frappé et l'habitat ainsi que de leur évolution dans le temps. Par ailleurs, l'histoire des comportements humains apporte d'autres éléments à l'enquête avancée : la solidarité intègre cette région du monde dans un contexte national et international par l'aide sollicitée auprès de la métropole et d'autres pays. Les autorités et les services compétents entrent en compte pour l'administration de l'île et les choix à faire tant en terme de prévention, que d'information et de mobilisation. Parmi les cyclones marquants du XXème siècle, le cyclone des 26 et 27 janvier 1948 est communément appelé « le cyclone du siècle ». Cependant, le cyclone Jenny (28 février 1962), par ses apports, semble être le point de départ d'un demi-siècle de mutations. Et de fait, une césure dans l'histoire de la société réunionnaise. L'objectif final de notre recherche est de contribuer au progrès d'une prise de conscience collective des cyclones afin de mieux limiter les dégâts humains et matériels lors de leurs passages. / Our thesis presents a social and environmental analysis of cyclones history into Reunion Island society: Our purpose is to estimate the impact of a destructive event, the cyclone, on the collective and individual memory, upon sciences and technology evolution, crisis management, emergency services organisation and area development. Then, cyclone can entirely be an object of History. At the same time, we aim to understand cyclones consequences from a geographical and human point of view. Cyclones impact can be different, depending on the place or housing conditions and the way that they evolve in the time. Moreover, history of human behaviour bring other elements to our enquiry: mutual assistance integrate this world area in a national and international context, with help request to French metropolis and others countries. We must take administration and civil services into account in the island management and in the choices to be made, as far as prevention, information or mobilization are concerned. Among outstanding cyclones of the XXth century, January the 26th and 27th of 1948 cyclonic system is usually considered as “the cyclone of the century”. However, the cyclone “Jenny” (February the 28th of 1962), by its contributions, could be considered as a starting point of a half century of mutations. And then a cut into history of Reunion Island society. The final aim of our research is to contribute to a progress of a collective consciousness of cyclones in order to limit human and material damages.

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall retrieval algorithms are evaluated in tropical cyclones (TCs). Differences between the Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals are found to be related to the storm region (inner core vs. rainbands) and the convective nature of the precipitation as measured by radar reflectivity and ice scattering signature. In landfalling TCs, the algorithms perform differently depending on whether the rainfall is located over ocean, land, or coastal surfaces. Various statistical techniques are applied to quantify these differences and identify the discrepancies in rainfall detection and intensity. Ground validation is accomplished by comparing the landfalling storms over the Southeast US to the NEXRAD Multisensor Precipitation Estimates (MPE) Stage-IV product. Numerous recommendations are given to algorithm users and developers for applying and interpreting these algorithms in areas of heavy and widespread tropical rainfall such as tropical cyclones.

Tropical forests represent major uncertainties in climate models and have the potential to act as both net carbon sources and sinks in the future. Projections that hurricanes will be an increasingly powerful disturbance in many tropical forests further complicate our ability to predict how these ecosystems will respond to climate change. By understanding how environmental variation at small spatial scales affects ecosystem processes shaping present-day forests, it may be possible to improve our predictions for how these forests will change in the future. This dissertation consists of three chapters examining the spatial patterns of tree species and soil greenhouse gas fluxes in a tropical forest in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. Disentangling the forces that drive the spatial distribution of tree species has been a foundational question in ecology and determining the relative importance of these forces is central to understanding spatial variation in soil biogeochemistry. In chapter 1, I use percolation threshold analysis to examine the clustering patterns of simulated and real tree spatial point patterns to understand the role that environmental filtering and density dependent processes play in shaping tree species distributions. I demonstrate that percolation threshold analysis successfully distinguishes thinning by random, environmental filtering, and density dependent processes. Additionally, the relative importance of these thinning processes varies by species’ traits; fast growing species with low LMA and shade intolerance have stronger evidence of density dependent processes compared to species with high LMA and shade tolerance. In chapter 2, I examine the spatial relationships between soil greenhouse gas fluxes and two proximal drivers of soil environmental variation: tree species and topography. I also examine how incorporating small-scale variation in greenhouse fluxes affects our scaled-up estimates of ecosystem greenhouse gas emissions. I show that including species effects improves estimates of soil CO2 fluxes, and including measures of topography improve estimates of CH4 and N2O fluxes. Incorporating spatial variation in GHG fluxes related to tree species and topography into our estimates of ecosystem GHG emissions decreased estimates of the total CO2-equivalent emissions in this forest by 5%. Finally, in chapter 3 I examine how the GHG fluxes in this forest change after an intense hurricane. I demonstrate that GHG emissions shift following a hurricane; this shift is primarily driven by a 176% increase in N2O emissions that represent a significant net loss of gaseous nitrogen from this forest. N2O fluxes accounted for 4.2% of the post-hurricane GHG-induced radiative forcing (compared to 1.8% pre-hurricane) and the combined increase in CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions observed translates to a 25% increase in CO2-equivalent emissions compared to pre-hurricane conditions. This dissertation focuses on the role of small-scale environmental variation in shaping forest communities and spatial patterns of GHG fluxes and aims to highlight how this variation can help us to better understand the role tropical forests play in the biosphere.