Hydrology and water quality are affected by land use and climate changes. Mississippi’s diverse agro–ecosystem comprises of a range of land use land cover (LULC) including agriculture, forest, wetlands, urban, and grasslands. The objectives of this study were to investigate the impacts of various factors such as Best Management Practices (BMPs), wetlands, LULC, and climate changes on water quality and quantity. The hydrologic and water quality responses to dynamic LULC input in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated. Results showed that agricultural and forest expansion were major drivers of hydrologic and water quality changes in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), with agricultural expansion increasing runoff, sediments, and nutrients and forest expansion reducing these variables. The results showed that the integration of dynamic LULC and agricultural management operations in SWAT enables a more realistic representation of agricultural watersheds. Similarly, this study investigated the effects of wetland area changes overtime on surface and groundwater. Results demonstrated that 26% increase in wetland areas, reduced streamflow, sediments, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus by 2%, 37%, 13%, and 4% respectively as well as increased groundwater storage by 90 mm in selected sub–watershed. This highlighted the importance of preservation and restoration of wetlands to enhance the agro–ecosystem resilience to LULC change. Likewise, the effectiveness of BMPs in reducing sediment yield from critical areas within BSRW was assessed. Results demonstrated that BMPs reduced sediments by up to 50%, suggesting their usefulness in mitigating high sediment yield from agricultural areas. This study also assessed the impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment loads and the role of waterbodies in mitigating those impacts. Results depicted a significant increase in future streamflow and sediment loads due to potential increase in precipitation and temperature. When waterbodies were simulated, projected change in annual streamflow was < 1%. However, the projected annual sediment loads reduced substantially by 44–46%, highlighting the role of waterbodies on watershed resilience to climate change. Overall, this dissertation study provides insights about the complex interactions between LULC, climate, anthropogenic activities, and water resources that can help to develop watershed management strategies to promote agricultural sustainability.

The Walla Walla basin lies in an arid region of Eastern Washington and Oregon. A large portion of the area is devoted to agricultural production, relying on irrigation water diverted from the Walla Walla River and underlying aquifers occurring within Quaternary and Mio-pliocene era gravel deposits, as well as a supplemental source from the Columbia River Basalt formation. Heavy water demand over summer months has resulted in a fully allocated surface water supply and significant drawdown in groundwater levels. The Walla Walla River also hosts two salmonid species listed as threatened under the endangered species act and entitled to federal protection. Specific questions have emerged regarding regional water supply as stakeholders work towards management strategies that meet water user demands, well also addressing concerns such as groundwater depletion and fish habitat. Currently, there are proposals aimed at increasing water use efficiency such as the lining of permeable canal beds and the expansion of a shallow aquifer recharge program. Effective implementation of such strategies, in part, relies on understanding the interactions between surface water and groundwater within this region. This project used the distributed hydrologic model, Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), for simulating surface and subsurface flows over a portion of the Walla Walla River basin spanning from Milton Freewater, Oregon to west of Touchet, Washington. This application of IWFM uses a grid with an average spacing of 100 x 100 meters over the 230 square kilometer model area. The model was developed and calibrated using data from 2007 through 2009, with 2010 data to be used as a data set for validation. Data collection has been a collaborative effort between a research team from Oregon State University and the Walla Walla Basin Watershed Council (WWBWC). This thesis provides explanation and documentation of model development. This includes details of data collection and processing for groundwater and surface water conditions, estimation of initial and boundary conditions, parameter calibration, model validation, and error analysis. Data sources include federal and state agencies, a gauge network managed by the WWBWC, and geologic research primarily performed by Kevin Lindsey of GSI Water Solutions with support of the WWBWC. Parameters have been independently determined from field measurements whenever possible. Otherwise they were estimated using established methods of hydrologic analysis, values drawn from previous regional studies, or the process of model calibration. Outputs include detailed hydrological budgets and hydrographs for groundwater and surface water gauges. The calibrated model has an overall correlation coefficient of 0.59 for groundwater and 0.63 for surface water. The standard deviation for groundwater is 3.2 meters at 62 well locations and surface water has a mean relative error of 22.3 percent at 34 gauges. This model intended as a tool for formulating water budgets for the basin under present conditions and making predictions of systemic responses to hypothetical water management scenarios. Scenarios of increased inputs into the Locher Road aquifer recharge site and conversion of irrigation district canals into pipelines are presented. / Graduation date: 2012

This research project focuses on the Walla Walla River Basin located on the east side of the states of Oregon and Washington, USA. With the support and collaboration of the Walla Walla Basin Watershed Council, this work embraces four research topics. The first topic includes the feasibility study of artificial aquifer recharge in the Walla Walla Basin. Through development and application of a regional hydrological model, a methodology for evaluating locations of artificial aquifer recharge is presented with a test case. The second research topic evaluates the recharge rates observed from pilot test studies of artificial aquifer recharge. Scale dependence of recharge rates should be considered when excessive induced groundwater mounding forms beneath the infiltrating basins. The third topic utilizes groundwater tracers and simulation models to evaluate the hydraulic connection of springs to infiltrating basins of artificial aquifer recharge. Finally, the fourth topic as a proof of a technique, utilizes distributed temperature sensing technology with a pair of black and white coated fiber optic cables to estimate the effective exposure to solar radiation over the Walla Walla River. / Graduation date: 2013

Le changement climatique dû à l'augmentation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre est considéré comme l'un des principaux défis pour les êtres humains dans 21ème siècle. Il conduira à des changements dans les précipitations, l'humidité atmosphérique, augmentation de l'évaporation et probablement augmenter la fréquence des événements extrêmes. Les conséquences de ces phénomènes auront une influence sur de nombreux aspects de la société humaine. Donc, il y a une nécessité d'avoir une estimation robuste et précise de la variation des facteurs naturels dus au changement climatique, au moins dans les événements de cycle et d'inondation hydrologiques pour fournir une base solide pour atténuer les impacts du changement climatique et s'adapter à ces défis. Le but de cette étude est de présenter une méthodologie pour évaluer les impacts de différents scénarios de changement climatique sur une zone inondable du bassin de la rivière côtière dans la région centrale du Viet Nam - bassin versant de Vu Gia Thu Bon. Les simulations hydrologiques sont basées sur un modèle hydrologique déterministe validé qui intègre la géologie, les sols, la topographie, les systèmes fluviaux et les variables climatiques. Le climat de la journée présente, sur la période de 1991-2010 a été raisonnablement simulée par le modèle hydrologique. Climat futur (2091-2100) information a été obtenue à partir d'une réduction d'échelle dynamique des modèles climatiques mondiaux. L'étude analyse également les changements dans la dynamique des inondations de la région de l'étude, le changement hydrologique et les incertitudes du changement climatique simulation. / Climate change due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions is considered to be one of the major challenges to mankind in the 21st century. It will lead to changes in precipitation, atmospheric moisture, increase in evaporation and probably a higher frequency of extreme events. The consequences of these phenomena will have an influence on many aspects of human society. Particularly at river deltas, coastal regions and developing countries, the impacts of climate change to socio-economic development become more serious. So there is a need for a robust and accurate estimation of the variation of natural factors due to climate change, at least in the hydrological cycle and flooding events to provide a strong basis for mitigating the impacts of climate change and to adapt to these challenges. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to assess the impacts of different climate change scenarios on a flood prone area of a coastal river basin in the central region of Viet Nam – Vu Gia Thu Bon catchment. The hydrological simulations are based on a validated deterministic hydrological model which integrates geology, soil, topography, river systems and climate variables. The present day climate, over the period of 1991-2010 was reasonably simulated by the hydrological model. Future climate (2091-2100) information was obtained from a dynamical downscaling of the global climate models. The study also analyzes the changes in the flood dynamics of the study region, the hydrological shift and the uncertainties of climate change simulation.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(A)(2) 課題番号:11691124 研究代表者:福嶌 義宏 研究期間:1999-2000年度