Alors que certains mécanismes pourtant jugés cruciaux pour la transformation de la pluie en débit restent peu ou mal compris, le concept de connectivité hydrologique a récemment été proposé pour expliquer pourquoi certains processus sont déclenchés de manière épisodique en fonction des caractéristiques des événements de pluie et de la teneur en eau des sols avant l’événement. L’adoption de ce nouveau concept en hydrologie reste cependant difficile puisqu’il n’y a pas de consensus sur la définition de la connectivité, sa mesure, son intégration dans les modèles hydrologiques et son comportement lors des transferts d’échelles spatiales et temporelles. Le but de ce travail doctoral est donc de préciser la définition, la mesure, l’agrégation et la prédiction des processus liés à la connectivité hydrologique en s’attardant aux questions suivantes : 1) Quel cadre méthodologique adopter pour une étude sur la connectivité hydrologique ?, 2) Comment évaluer le degré de connectivité hydrologique des bassins versants à partir de données de terrain ?, et 3) Dans quelle mesure nos connaissances sur la connectivité hydrologique doivent-elles conduire à la modification des postulats de modélisation hydrologique ? Trois approches d’étude sont différenciées, soit i) une approche de type « boite noire », basée uniquement sur l’exploitation des données de pluie et de débits sans examiner le fonctionnement interne du bassin versant ; ii) une approche de type « boite grise » reposant sur l’étude de données géochimiques ponctuelles illustrant la dynamique interne du bassin versant ; et iii) une approche de type « boite blanche » axée sur l’analyse de patrons spatiaux exhaustifs de la topographie de surface, la topographie de subsurface et l’humidité du sol. Ces trois approches sont ensuite validées expérimentalement dans le bassin versant de l’Hermine (Basses Laurentides, Québec). Quatre types de réponses hydrologiques sont distingués en fonction de leur magnitude et de leur synchronisme, sachant que leur présence relative dépend des conditions antécédentes. Les forts débits enregistrés à l’exutoire du bassin versant sont associés à une contribution accrue de certaines sources de ruissellement, ce qui témoigne d’un lien hydraulique accru et donc d’un fort degré de connectivité hydrologique entre les sources concernées et le cours d’eau. Les aires saturées couvrant des superficies supérieures à 0,85 ha sont jugées critiques pour la genèse de forts débits de crue. La preuve est aussi faite que les propriétés statistiques des patrons d’humidité du sol en milieu forestier tempéré humide sont nettement différentes de celles observées en milieu de prairie tempéré sec, d’où la nécessité d’utiliser des méthodes de calcul différentes pour dériver des métriques spatiales de connectivité dans les deux types de milieux. Enfin, la double existence de sources contributives « linéaires » et « non linéaires » est mise en évidence à l’Hermine. Ces résultats suggèrent la révision de concepts qui sous-tendent l’élaboration et l’exécution des modèles hydrologiques. L’originalité de cette thèse est le fait même de son sujet. En effet, les objectifs de recherche poursuivis sont conformes à la théorie hydrologique renouvelée qui prône l’arrêt des études de particularismes de petite échelle au profit de l’examen des propriétés émergentes des bassins versants telles que la connectivité hydrologique. La contribution majeure de cette thèse consiste ainsi en la proposition d’une définition unifiée de la connectivité, d’un cadre méthodologique, d’approches de mesure sur le terrain, d’outils techniques et de pistes de solution pour la modélisation des systèmes hydrologiques. / As core processes of the transformation of rainfall into runoff are not fully understood, the concept of hydrologic connectivity has been put forward to explain why some processes occur episodically, in a very discrete short-lived manner, as a response to intermittent atmospheric water input, storm characteristics and soil moisture storage. Even though emerging as a very powerful tool for explaining the growing numbers of nonlinear hydrologic behaviours documented around the world, the hydrologic connectivity concept raises major issues for future research in catchment hydrology in terms of its definition, its measure, its integration into hydrological models and its scaling in the space and the time domains. The aim of this doctoral work is to precise the definition, the measure, the scaling and the prediction of processes underlying hydrologic connectivity while focusing on the following research questions: (1) What methodological framework should guide investigations of hydrologic connectivity?, (2) How to assess hydrologic connectivity from field data?, and (3) To what extent can the ongoing knowledge acquisition on hydrologic connectivity be used to improve success with hydrological modeling? Three study approaches are discriminated, namely: (i) a black box approach that only relies on rainfall and runoff data without examining the internal catchment behaviour; (ii) a grey box approach based on punctual geochemical data illustrating the catchment internal state; and (iii) a white box approach involving exhaustive spatial patterns of surface and subsurface topographic variables and soil moisture. These three approaches are then tested against field data from the Hermine catchment (Lower Laurentians, Quebec). It is possible to classify the Hermine catchment hydrological responses with regards to their magnitude and their timing, the switching from one response type to another depending on antecedent conditions. It is revealed that high discharge values monitored at the catchment outlet are produced by increased contributions from specific runoff sources, thus hinting towards a reinforced hydraulic linkage and an enhanced degree of connectivity between runoff sources and the stream channel. It is established that saturated areas whose spatial extent exceeds 0.85 ha are critical for high runoff generation. Soil moisture spatial patterns in temperate humid forested catchments are shown to have statistical properties that are very different from those encountered in temperate rangelands; hence the necessity of using different spatial connectivity metrics in these contrasted environments. The co-existence of “linear” and “nonlinear” contributing sources is also illustrated in the Hermine catchment. These results suggest that some concepts should be revised for hydrological modeling purposes. The originality of the present thesis is mainly inherited from its prime focus. The pursued research objectives are in accordance with the future trend in catchment hydrology, especially as hydrologists are urged to move from site-specific experiments and results to more easily generalizable concepts that favour the study of emergent catchment properties such as connectivity. Thus, the major contribution of this thesis is the proposal of a unified definition of connectivity, a comprehensive methodological framework, technical tools and operational ideas for the better performance of hydrological models.

COSTA, Alexandre Gomes da. Umidade do solo e disponibilidade hídrica na zona das raízes em condições naturais de caatinga preservada. 2012. 182 f. : Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Ceará, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Agrícola, 2012. Fortaleza-CE, 2012. / Submitted by demia Maia (demiamlm@gmail.com) on 2016-08-02T16:07:05Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_tese_cagcosta.pdf: 15315410 bytes, checksum: 38127bb5784afef6034c271f1422f7b4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by demia Maia (demiamlm@gmail.com) on 2016-08-02T16:07:38Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_tese_cagcosta.pdf: 15315410 bytes, checksum: 38127bb5784afef6034c271f1422f7b4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T16:07:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2012_tese_cagcosta.pdf: 15315410 bytes, checksum: 38127bb5784afef6034c271f1422f7b4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Regarding ecohydrology, the catchment water is distributed over several important compartments. Many studies in semiarid re gions indicate the surface reservoirs as the main water compartments. However, the watershed has greater scope than the water reservoirs contained therein, and water resources in compartments distributed in the watershed (like in soil) should be analyzed not only with regard to ecological uses, but also as spaces of water availability. Therefore, the object ive of this work was to analyze, based on measurements and modeling, the water dynamics in th e soils of a semi-arid basin in preserved Caatinga, and its impact on water availability. Wit h this in mind, it was measured, among others, the soil moisture, every hour, from 2003 to 2010 (2923 days) in the Aiuaba Experimental Basin (AEB, 12 km ²), fully preserved and with average annual rainfall of 560 mm. Monitoring was carried out through three TDR se nsors, one installed in each of the three soil and vegetation associations (SVA) identified in the basin. The research method considered six main steps: i) assessment of the eff ective root depth of preserved Caatinga ii) calibration of humidity TDR sensors iii) space-time representation of soil moisture in each SVA unit iv) analysis of soil water availability in the root zone, v) parameterization of the WASA-SED hydrological model, and vi) parameterizati on of the DiCaSM hydrological model. The results of this research indicate the importance of addressing the temporal analysis of soil moisture and soil water availability in the root zone to maintain the Caatinga biome. More specifically, it was observed that the effecti ve depth of the root system on AEB ranged between 70 and 80 cm in areas with deep soils, but in areas with shallow soils, it was observed that the effective depth of the roots had adapted to the constraints, having been reduced to less than 40 cm. Furthermore, the season al analysis showed that in the dry season, the roots have lengths up to 11 cm smaller, openin g, therefore, secondary pores that facilitate the penetration of what little rain water falls in the dry months (June-December), as well as in the first rains of the wet season. In the two SVAs whose soils are deep and the vegetation is dense, the soil water is 'not available' (ie below the permanent wilting point - WP) during nearly nine months a year (72% of the time), and on ly during three months of the year (25% of the time) the soil water is available. In the re maining 3% of the year (about 10 days) there is gravitational water in these SVAs. In the SVAs whose soil is shallow and whose vegetation is sparse, the dynamics of soil water are different : the time when there is gravitational water, available and unavailable, is practically the same (four months a year). This is due to, among other things, the low soil moisture at the permanen t wilting point of the Udorthent, and to its limited thickness, generating saturation much more frequently than in others that - unlike this one - have deep drainage. The depletion of soil wat er under conditions of moisture below the wilting point was another important result of this research. In the two associations with deep soils and thick vegetation, it was observed – throu ghout the observation period – continuous fall of moisture level until it approached asymptot ically the residual moisture. More detailed analysis showed that the reduction of soil moisture between the WP and the residual moisture level always followed the exponential decay. It was observed, in the association of shallow soil and sparse vegetation, that the moisture did not fall to below the WP, even subjected to the same rigorous climate of the other associations . Considering: (i) that in such a dry soil, the drainage is unlikely, and (ii) that the associated processes of percolation and evaporation should not be responsible for the removal of soil w ater either (since the phenomenon is not observed in SVAs whose soil is shallow and therefor e warmer) , it is raised the hypothesis that the soil drying under these conditions must be caused by water extraction by vegetation. This would strengthen the argument that the Caating a has adapted to survive under water stress. The hydrological models WASA-SED and DiCaSM failed to adequately represent the temporal dynamics of soil water in the AEB. However , the models did satisfactorily reproduce the retention curves of soil moisture, al lowing the representation of the water availability in the root zone for planning purposes . Finally, we managed to evaluate - quantitatively, spatially and temporally – the soil water availability. This availability is of the same order of magnitude of the availability of an o ptimal surface reservoir. The availability in the soil, in quantitative terms, can be almost five times higher than that of the surface reservoir. However, the security associated with su rface water (90%) is much higher than the water permanence available in the AEB: just 28% in areas with deep soils and 65% in areas with shallow soils. / A água na bacia hidrográfica está distribuída em diversos compartimentos importantes no que se refere à ecohidrologia. Muitos estudos em regiões semiáridas apontam os reservatórios superficiais como principais compartimentos de água. Entretanto, a bacia hidrográfica tem maior abrangência que as bacias hidráulicas nela contida, e os recursos hídricos nos compartimentos distribuídos na bacia hidrográfica (como no solo) devem ser analisados não somente no que se refere aos usos ecológicos, mas também como espaço de disponibilidade hídrica. Portanto, o objetivo do trabalho foi analisar, com base em medidas e modelagem, a dinâmica da água nos solos de uma bacia semiárida de Caatinga preservada e seu impacto sobre a disponibilidade hídrica. Para isso foi medida, entre outros, a umidade do solo a cada hora, de 2003 a 2010 (2923 dias) na Bacia Experimental de Aiuaba (BEA, 12 km²), totalmente preservada e com precipitação média anual de 560 mm. O monitoramento foi realizado através de três sensores TDR, um instalado em cada uma das três associações entre solo e vegetação (SVA) identificadas na bacia. O método de investigação considerou seis etapas principais: i) determinação da profundidade efetiva das raízes da Caatinga preservada; ii) calibração dos sensores de umidade tipo TDR; iii) representação espaço-temporal da umidade do solo em cada unidade de SVA; iv) análise da disponibilidade hídrica do solo na zona das raízes; v) parametrização do modelo hidrológico WASA-SED; e vi) parametrização do modelo hidrológico DiCaSM. Os resultados obtidos nesta pesquisa indicam a importância da abordagem da análise temporal da umidade do solo e da disponibilidade hídrica do solo na zona das raízes para a manutenção do bioma Caatinga. Mais especificamente, foi observado que a profundidade efetiva do sistema radicular na BEA oscilou entre 70 e 80 cm nas regiões com solos profundos, porém, em regiões com solos rasos, observou-se que a profundidade efetiva das raízes adaptou-se às restrições, ficando reduzida a menos de 40 cm. Além disso, a análise sazonal demonstrou que, na estação de estio, as raízes têm comprimentos até 11 cm menores, abrindo, portanto, poros secundários que facilitarão a penetração da água nas eventuais chuvas dos meses secos (junho a dezembro), assim como nas primeiras chuvas da estação úmida. Nas duas SVAs cujos solos são profundos e cuja vegetação é densa, a água no solo encontra-se ‘não-disponível’ (isto é, abaixo do ponto de murcha permanente – WP) em quase nove meses ao ano (72% do tempo); e somente durante três meses ao ano (25%) a água no solo encontra-se disponível. Nos 3% restantes do ano (cerca de 10 dias) há água gravitacional nessas SVAs. Na SVA cujo solo é raso e cuja vegetação é esparsa, a dinâmica da água no solo é diferente: o tempo em que há água gravitacional, disponível e não disponível é praticamente o mesmo (quatro meses ao ano). Isso se deve, entre outros, à baixa umidade do solo no ponto de murcha permanente do neossolo litólico; e à sua restrita espessura, gerando saturação muito mais frequentemente que nos demais solos que – ao contrário deste – dispõem de drenagem profunda. A depleção da água no solo sob condições de umidade abaixo do ponto de murcha foi outro resultado importante desta pesquisa. Nas duas associações com solos profundos e vegetação densa, observou-se – ao longo de todo o período investigado – decaimento contínuo da umidade até que a mesma se aproximasse assintoticamente da umidade residual. Análise mais detalhada demonstrou que a redução da umidade do solo entre o WP e a umidade residual sempre obedecia ao decaimento exponencial. Na associação com solo raso e vegetação esparsa observou-se que a umidade não caía para valores inferiores ao WP, mesmo sujeita ao mesmo rigor climático das demais associações. Considerando-se: (i) que em solo tão seco, a drenagem é improvável; e (ii) que os processos associados de percolação e evaporação tampouco devam ser os responsáveis pela retirada de água do solo (posto que o fenômeno não se observa na SVA cujo solo é raso e, portanto, mais quente); levanta-se a hipótese que o secamento do solo nessas condições deva ser causado por extração de água pela vegetação. Isso reforçaria a tese de que a Caatinga dispõe de adaptação para sobreviver mesmo em condições de estresse hídrico. Os modelos hidrológicos WASA-SED e DiCaSM não conseguiram representar adequadamente a dinâmica temporal da água nos solos da BEA. No entanto, os modelos reproduziram satisfatoriamente as curvas de permanência da umidade dos solos, permitindo representar a disponibilidade hídrica na zona das raízes para fins de planejamento. Por fim, logrou-se avaliar – quantitativa, espacial e temporalmente – a disponibilidade hídrica do solo. Esta é da mesma ordem de grandeza da disponibilidade de um reservatório superficial ótimo. Em termos quantitativos, a disponibilidade no solo chega a ser quase cinco vezes superior à do reservatório superficial, entretanto, a garantia associada da água superficial (90%) é bem superior à permanência da água disponível na BEA: apenas 28% nas áreas com solos profundos e 65% nas áreas com solos rasos.

Population growth and economic development has led to the unsustainable use of natural resources. The occupation of land often occurs preferentially in areas close to water sources, and frequently proceeds without any a priori planning, resulting in harm to both the availability and quality of water supplies. Hydrological models are widely used to study and predict the hydrosedimentological processes that occur in hydrographic basins, aiding the understanding of changes in water quality and quantity resulting from the use and management of the soil, and enabling prediction of possible alterations in ecosystems. The overall aim of this work was to study the hydrosedimentological dynamics of the hydrographic basin of the Poxim-Açu River, using qualitative and quantitative water monitoring, together with a mathematical model to simulate different scenarios according to the type of land use. The study region comprised the hydrographic basin of the Poxim-Açu River, located in the eastern region of Sergipe State. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate the production of water, sediments, and nutrients. Water quality monitoring campaigns were conducted on a monthly basis, between February 2010 and March 2011, at 7 stations distributed along the basin. The parameters analyzed were: conductivity, turbidity, color, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity and hardness, nutrients (total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphate, nitrite, nitrate, ammoniacal nitrogen, and total nitrogen), chlorophyll-a, and thermotolerant and total coliforms. Soil samples were collected for the determination of physico-hydric properties: density, humidity, percentages of clay, silt, and sand, macro- and microporosity, total porosity, and infiltration rate. Monitoring of the flow rate and water column height of the Poxim-Açu River was undertaken between July 13 2011 and September 26 2011, using bathymetry and a winch. The water quality in the basin was found to be degraded in terms of the levels of dissolved oxygen and total and thermotolerant coliforms. The soils presented densities in the range 1.07-1.88 g.cm-3 and humidities below 35%. The greatest infiltration rates were obtained for Quartzarenic Neosols, followed by Litholic Neosols, Gleysols, and Red-Yellow Argisols, respectively. The depth-availability curve obtained using polynomial regression showed a high coefficient of determination (R² = 0.9376). After sensitivity analysis and calibration, the model provided satisfactory performance, with values: NSE = 0.77, R² = 0.65, PBIAS = 5.05, RMSE = 0.48, and RSR = 0.49. The validation statistics were poorer than obtained during the calibration procedure, probably due to the small sample size of the flow data. It was found that 30% of the hydrographic basin produced 65% of the sediment, 84% of total nitrogen, 93% of phosphate, and 86% of total phosphorus. These sub-basins were characterized by the presence of Red-Yellow Argisols and Gleysols, with the area occupied by pasture exceeding 40% in all cases, and being greater than 90% in one case (sub-basin 21). The scenario in which the hydrographic basin was occupied by forest showed the lowest values for the production of water, sediments, and nutrients. This was in contrast to the implementation of annual cultivations, such as sugar cane, which greatly increased the production of sediments and nutrients. / O crescimento populacional e desenvolvimento econômico têm levado à exploração não sustentável dos recursos naturais. A ocupação dos espaços ocorre quase sempre em áreas situadas próximas aos mananciais, muitas vezes sem planejamento, gerando situações de escassez dos recursos hídricos, tanto em qualidade, como em quantidade. Os modelos hidrológicos são amplamente utilizados para o estudo e previsão dos processos hidrossedimentológicos que ocorrem em uma bacia hidrográfica, colaborando para a compreensão dos impactos das alterações ocasionadas pelo uso e manejo do solo, na qualidade e quantidade de água, como também prever possíveis alterações que poderão ocorrer nos ecossistemas. Este trabalho teve como objetivo geral estudar a dinâmica hidrossedimentológica da bacia hidrográfica do rio Poxim-Açu, a partir do monitoramento quantitativo e qualitativo da água, com a utilização de um modelo matemático para simulação de cenários em função do uso do solo. A área de estudo compreende a bacia hidrográfica do rio Poxim-Açu, localizada na porção leste do estado de Sergipe. Neste sentido, foi aplicado o modelo SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) para simular a produção de água e sedimentos, além dos nutrientes. Para alcançar os objetivos foram realizadas campanhas mensais de monitoramento da qualidade da água de fevereiro de 2010 a março de 2011 em 7 estações distribuídas ao longo da bacia hidrográfica do rio Poxim-Açu. Os parâmetros analisados foram condutividade, turbidez, cor, sólidos totais dissolvidos, oxigênio dissolvido, alcalinidade e dureza, nutrientes fósforo total, ortofosfato dissolvido, nitrito, nitrato, nitrogênio amoniacal, nitrogênio total além da clorofila-a, coliformes termotolerantes e totais. Foram realizadas coletas de amostras de solo para a determinação de propriedades físico-hídricas do solo: densidade, umidade, porcentagens de argila, silte e areia, macro e microporosidade, porosidade total, além da velocidade de infiltração. O monitoramento referente a vazão e lâminas d água (cota) foram efetuadas no período de 13 de julho a 26 de setembro de 2011, no rio Poxim-Açu, por meio da técnica de batimetria e determinação da vazão por molinete. A qualidade da água da bacia hidrográfica do rio Poxim encontra-se comprometida principalmente no que se refere ao oxigênio dissolvido e coliformes totais e termotolerantes. De acordo com os métodos para análise do solo os valores de densidade obtidos foram no intervalo de 1,07 a 1,88 g.cm-3, a umidade, apresentou-se abaixo de 35%. Os solos que apresentam maiores velocidades de infiltração foram os Neossolos Quartzarênicos, seguidos pelos Neossolos Litólicos, Gleissolos e Argissolos Vermelho Amarelo, respectivamente. A curva-chave determinada a partir da regressão polinomial apresentou elevado coeficiente de determinação (R² = 0,9376). Após a análise de sensibilidade e calibração do modelo foram obtidos valores satisfatórios para o desempenho do modelo, NSE = 0,77, R² = 0.65, PBIAS = 5,05, RMSE = 0,48, RSR = 0,49. As estatísticas da validação ficaram piores que no período de calibração, o que pode ter contribuído para este fato é o pequeno tamanho da amostra de dados observados de vazão. Observa-se ainda que em 30% da bacia hidrográfica estudada foram produzidos 65% dos sedimentos, 84 % do nitrogênio total, 93 % do fosfato e 86% do fósforo total. Essas subbacias são caracterizadas pelos solos Argissolo Vermelho Amarelo e Gleissolo. Nestas subbacias o percentual de área ocupado pela pastagem é sempre superior a 40 %, em algumas subbacias, como a 21, o percentual é superior a 90 %. O cenário de ocupação da bacia hidrográfica por floresta apresentou os menores valores de produção de água, sedimentos e nutrientes, em contrapartida a implantação de culturas anuais, como a cana de açúcar em substituição ao cenário atual, promoveu aumento considerável na produção de sedimentos e nutrientes.

A comprehensive assessment of water security incorporates a range of water-related concepts, since water policy issues to specific technical aspects of hydrological conditions and their interactions with societal needs and ecosystem functioning. This doctoral thesis is organized into three chapters that address such range of water security-related topics, aiming to establish a conceptual baseline and propose deterministic and stochastic accounting frameworks for a river basin water security evaluation. Specific assumptions and research questions are defined in each chapter, and are related to the management of \'Cantareira water supply system\' (located in Southeastern Brazil), focusing on different scales and on its political and hydrological aspects as well. The first chapter acts as a conceptual baseline for water security assessment, by examining general aspects of the Brazilian water policy and water allocation system. This study contrasts Brazilian and American water management systems applied to water transfer projects, discussing experiences from the \'Cantareira system\' and Colorado river basin. A deterministic accounting framework is presented in the second chapter, which is based on management of blue and green water kinds (defined in accordance with hydrological processes and storage types), and demonstrates how a quantitative analysis of provisioning and use (abstraction and consumption) of both water kinds can be conducted. An agricultural basin (291 km²) within the Cantareira water supply system (located upstream of the Cachoeira reservoir) was used to illustrate this approach. The impact of blue and green water use on median water resources conditions is accounted by the scarcity indicator, while the vulnerability indicator considers the probability of low availability of water resources. In the third chapter quantifies and discusses the impacts of uncertainties on water security indicators (proposed in the chapter 2), based on a multi-model and resampling framework, that considers several uncertainty sources including those related to: i) observed streamflow data; ii) hydrological model structure; iii) residual analysis; iv) Environmental Flow Requirement methods; v) the definition of critical conditions for water provision; and vi) the critical demand imposed by human activities. Then, the uncertainty is propagated through different methodological arrangements applied to the same study basin of chapter 2. In brief, the first chapter indicates that both Brazilian and American water management system can potentially contribute to each other. In the second chapter, the Blue/Green water-based accounting framework reveal clear spatial and temporal patterns of water scarcity and vulnerability levels within the basin, thereby improving our understanding of how and where water-related threats to human and aquatic ecosystem security can arise (so called hot-spots). The third chapter provide a general method that can form basis for meaningful support to end-users facing water resource challenges by enabling them to incorporate a viable uncertainty analysis into a robust decision making process. Further investigation are proposed in each research step of this doctoral thesis. / A avaliação da segurança hídrica pode incorporar vários conceitos relacionados à água, desde aspectos da política de recursos hídricos até questões hidrológicas específicas e suas interações com a sociedade e ecossistemas. Esta tese de doutorado busca estabelecer uma base conceitual e propor esquemas metodológicos com base determinística e estocástica para avaliação da segurança hídrica de bacias hidrográficas. Objetivos específicos são definidos em cada capítulo e relacionam-se à gestão do \'Sistema Cantareira de abastecimento de água\' (localizado no Sudeste do Brasil), com foco em diferentes escalas, bem como aspectos políticos e hidrológicos. O primeiro capítulo é apresentado como baseline conceitual, examinando aspectos gerais da política de recursos hídricos e sistemas alocação de água. Este estudo compara sistemas de gestão aplicados a projetos de transposição de água inter/intra-bacias no Brasil e Estados Unidos, discutindo experiências do Sistema Cantareira e da bacia do rio Colorado. O segundo capítulo, por sua vez, propõe e analisa um esquema metodológico determinístico baseado na gestão das águas azul e verde (definidas de acordo com processos hidrológicos e unidades de armazenamento). Este estudo demonstra como uma análise quantitativa da provisão e utilização de ambos os tipos de água pode ser conduzida, propondo indicadores de escassez e vulnerabilidade hídrica. Esta abordagem foi aplicada em uma bacia agrícola (291 km²), localizada a montante do reservatório Cachoeira, que é integrante do Sistema Cantareira. O terceiro capítulo quantifica e analisa os impactos das incertezas sobre os indicadores de segurança hídrica propostos no capítulo 2, utilizando um esquema metodológico estocástico baseado em múltiplos modelos e reamostragem, que incorpora variadas fontes de incerteza, tais como: i) dados observados de vazão; ii) estrutura do modelo hidrológico; iii) análise de resíduos do modelo hidrológico; iv) estimativa de vazão ambiental; v) definição de condições críticas de provisão e vi) demanda hídrica. Em seguida, as incertezas são propagadas através de diferentes arranjos metodológicos aplicados na mesma bacia estudo do capítulo 2. Em conclusão, o primeiro capítulo sugere uma potencial troca de contribuições provenientes de ambos os sistemas de gestão brasileiro e americano. O segundo capítulo revela padrões espaciais e temporais dos resultados dos indicadores de escassez e vulnerabilidade, melhorando assim a compreensão de como e onde ameaças à segurança hídrica podem surgir. Por sua vez, a análise de incertezas desenvolvida no terceiro capítulo é capaz de gerar suporte a gestores de recursos hídricos e processo de tomada de decisões robustas. Recomendações específicas são geradas em cada capítulo da presente tese de doutorado.

Uncertainties with a modeling framework consisting of a weather generator, two precipitation disaggregation models and the hydrological HBV model was assessed with respect to hydrometeorological extremes in Tyrol, Austria. Extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency in the Alps during a warmer climate. The Alpine regions may be particularly vulnerable to such changes in climate where many floods in Europe occurred during recent years and caused major damage and loss of life. Weather generators typically provide time series at daily resolution. Different disaggregation methods have therefore been proposed and successfully tested to increase temporal resolution in precipitation. This is essential since flood peaks may be maintained for as little as minutes. Here, the non-parametric method of fragments was tested and compared with the multiplicative microcanonical cascade model with uniform splitting on the reproduction of precipitation extremes. It is also demonstrated that the method of fragments model can be transformed to disaggregate temperature with slight changes in the model structure. Preliminary test results show that the simulation of discharge peaks can be improved by disaggregating temperature in comparison with using daily averages as input in the HBV model.  Test results show that precipitation extremes were simulated within confidence bounds for Kelchsauer and Gurglbach when using historical observations as input. These two catchments had longer records of data available in comparison with Ruetz where the majority of simulated precipitation extremes were found outside confidence ranges. This indicates that the model is data driven. Synthetic data series were constructed with the weather generator from historical data and disaggregated with the two disaggregation models. The differences between the models were bigger for Ruetz where less observed data was available. The method of fragments simulates extremes with the closest resemblance to extremes. This is also true for the reproduction of wet spells and simulated variance. To account for parameter uncertainty in the HBV model, it is highly motivated to simulate discharge with different but suitable parameter sets to account for equifinality. However, the large amount of data produced when disaggregating the weather generated time series transcended the data capacity of the HBV model and made it crash. Other uncertainties related to the framework are the use of theoretical probability distributions in the weather generator and the dependence of high-resolution data for the disaggregation model. Despite these uncertainties, the framework is closer to a physical understanding of the causes of floods than the uncertain frequency analysis method. The framework is also applicable to land-use and climate change studies.

Abstract Although flow regime is a key element in determining the structure and function of lotic ecosystems, little is known about the variation of natural flow regimes and its relation to biological communities in highly seasonal northern boreal rivers. Temperature and precipitation patterns at northern latitudes are predicted to change drastically in the future causing severe effects on stream ecosystems. Interactions between climate change impacts and land use might further create unpredictable environmental stress. In this thesis, I first assessed the relationship of natural flow regimes of northern boreal rivers with taxonomic and functional structure of stream macroinvertebrates. Second, I combined hydrological, climate and biological models to study how climate change will alter northern flow and thermal regimes, how macroinvertebrates will respond to these changes and where these changes are going to be most pronounced. Third, I experimentally studied how different stream organisms are responding to flow change, sedimentation and their possible interaction. The role of hydrology in structuring macroinvertebrate assemblages was evident. Streams were predicted to lose much of the flow seasonality in the future, causing drastic changes that even exceeded the effect of future warming on macroinvertebrates. Especially communities within small seasonal streams were predicted to change, highlighting the importance of focusing conservation actions on these systems. Different organism groups exhibited highly variable responses to different stressors. For instance, aquatic fungi, which have been used less in climate change research, responded more strongly to flow change than traditionally used macroinvertebrates. The interactive effects of flow and sand were all antagonistic (i.e. less than the sum of the individual effects), which could be reassuring for management, although it means that both stressors may need to be removed to produce true ecological recovery. The results support the use of hydrological models in ecological studies for predicting current and future hydrological conditions at a site. However, as extreme events have been predicted to become more frequent, instead of modeling change in average conditions, future predictive models should be able to capture extreme fluctuations to gain more realistic view of climate change effects on stream ecosystems. / Tiivistelmä Joen virtaamaolosuhteet ja niiden vaihtelu ovat tärkeimpiä jokiekosysteemien rakenteeseen ja toimintaan vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tästä huolimatta pohjoisen havumetsävyöhykkeen jokien luonnollisia virtaamaolosuhteita ja niiden yhteyttä virtavesieliöihin on tutkittu vähän. Ilmastonmuutoksen on ennustettu aiheuttavan voimakkaita muutoksia pohjoisten alueiden ilman lämpötilassa ja sadannassa, ja nämä muutokset tulevat mitä todennäköisimmin aiheuttamaan vakavia seurauksia myös jokiekosysteemeissä. Ilmastonmuutoksen ympäristövaikutukset voivat lisäksi aiheuttaa jo olemassa olevien ihmistoiminnasta aiheutuvien ympäristövaikutusten kanssa haitallisia ja vaikeasti ennustettavia yhdysvaikutuksia. Väitöskirjassani arvioin ensin pohjoisten virtavesien luonnollisten virtaamaolosuhteiden suhdetta pohjaeläinyhteisöjen taksonomiseen ja toiminnalliseen rakenteeseen. Tämän jälkeen tarkastelin yhdistämällä erilaisia ilmastonmuutoksen skenaarioita hydrologisen ja biologisen mallin kanssa, miten ilmastonmuutos saattaa tulevaisuudessa vaikuttaa jokien virtaamaolosuhteisiin ja niissä eläviin pohjaeläinyhteisöihin. Lisäksi arvioin missä ja minkälaisissa jokityypeissä ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset tulevat esiin kaikkein voimakkaimmin. Lopuksi tutkin kokeellisesti, miten virtaamavaihtelu ja hienojakoinen sedimentti ja näiden mahdolliset yhdysvaikutukset vaikuttavat eri virtavesieliöihin. Tulokset osoittivat, että vuodenajasta riippuvat virtaamavaihtelut vähenevät ilmastonmuutoksen myötä, minkä seurauksena pohjaeläinyhteisöissä tapahtuu voimakkaita muutoksia. Erityisesti pienten jokien pohjaeläinyhteisöjen monimuotoisuus ja koostumus muuttuivat verrattaessa tämän päivän lajistoa tulevaisuuden ennustettuun lajistoon. Eri virtavesieliöryhmät vastasivat hyvin eri tavalla virtaamavaihtelun ja hiekoittumisen aiheuttamaan elinympäristön muutokseen. Esimerkiksi akvaattiset sienet, joita on aikaisemmin harvoin käytetty ilmastonmuutostutkimuksissa, vastasivat voimakkaammin virtaamamuutoksiin kuin tutkimuksissa perinteisesti käytetyt pohjaeläimet. Kaikki kokeessa havaitut yhdysvaikutukset olivat kuitenkin pienempiä kuin yksittäisten vaikutusten summa. Tulos on huojentava vesiensuojelun kannalta, mutta tarkoittaa toisaalta myös sitä, ettei yksittäisten ihmisvaikutusten poistaminen välttämättä takaa vesistön ekologisen tilan parantumista, jos elinympäristöön vaikuttaa yhtaikaisesti useampi tekijä. Väitöskirjani tulokset tukevat hydrologisten mallien hyödyntämistä ekologisessa tutkimuksessa. Ilmastonmuutoksen myötä eri ääri-ilmiöiden, kuten rankkasateiden, on ennustettu tulevan entistä yleisimmiksi. Ääri-ilmiöiden vaikutukset ekologisiin vasteisiin tunnetaan kuitenkin heikosti. Mallien kehittämisessä olisi tämän vuoksi jatkossa tärkeää keskittyä ääri-ilmiöihin ja niiden aiheuttamiin biologisiin muutoksiin, jotta voisimme nykyistä realistisemmin arvioida ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksia sisävesiekosysteemeissä.

Hydrology and water quality are affected by land use and climate changes. Mississippi’s diverse agro–ecosystem comprises of a range of land use land cover (LULC) including agriculture, forest, wetlands, urban, and grasslands. The objectives of this study were to investigate the impacts of various factors such as Best Management Practices (BMPs), wetlands, LULC, and climate changes on water quality and quantity. The hydrologic and water quality responses to dynamic LULC input in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were evaluated. Results showed that agricultural and forest expansion were major drivers of hydrologic and water quality changes in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), with agricultural expansion increasing runoff, sediments, and nutrients and forest expansion reducing these variables. The results showed that the integration of dynamic LULC and agricultural management operations in SWAT enables a more realistic representation of agricultural watersheds. Similarly, this study investigated the effects of wetland area changes overtime on surface and groundwater. Results demonstrated that 26% increase in wetland areas, reduced streamflow, sediments, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus by 2%, 37%, 13%, and 4% respectively as well as increased groundwater storage by 90 mm in selected sub–watershed. This highlighted the importance of preservation and restoration of wetlands to enhance the agro–ecosystem resilience to LULC change. Likewise, the effectiveness of BMPs in reducing sediment yield from critical areas within BSRW was assessed. Results demonstrated that BMPs reduced sediments by up to 50%, suggesting their usefulness in mitigating high sediment yield from agricultural areas. This study also assessed the impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment loads and the role of waterbodies in mitigating those impacts. Results depicted a significant increase in future streamflow and sediment loads due to potential increase in precipitation and temperature. When waterbodies were simulated, projected change in annual streamflow was < 1%. However, the projected annual sediment loads reduced substantially by 44–46%, highlighting the role of waterbodies on watershed resilience to climate change. Overall, this dissertation study provides insights about the complex interactions between LULC, climate, anthropogenic activities, and water resources that can help to develop watershed management strategies to promote agricultural sustainability.

The Walla Walla basin lies in an arid region of Eastern Washington and Oregon. A large portion of the area is devoted to agricultural production, relying on irrigation water diverted from the Walla Walla River and underlying aquifers occurring within Quaternary and Mio-pliocene era gravel deposits, as well as a supplemental source from the Columbia River Basalt formation. Heavy water demand over summer months has resulted in a fully allocated surface water supply and significant drawdown in groundwater levels. The Walla Walla River also hosts two salmonid species listed as threatened under the endangered species act and entitled to federal protection. Specific questions have emerged regarding regional water supply as stakeholders work towards management strategies that meet water user demands, well also addressing concerns such as groundwater depletion and fish habitat. Currently, there are proposals aimed at increasing water use efficiency such as the lining of permeable canal beds and the expansion of a shallow aquifer recharge program. Effective implementation of such strategies, in part, relies on understanding the interactions between surface water and groundwater within this region. This project used the distributed hydrologic model, Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), for simulating surface and subsurface flows over a portion of the Walla Walla River basin spanning from Milton Freewater, Oregon to west of Touchet, Washington. This application of IWFM uses a grid with an average spacing of 100 x 100 meters over the 230 square kilometer model area. The model was developed and calibrated using data from 2007 through 2009, with 2010 data to be used as a data set for validation. Data collection has been a collaborative effort between a research team from Oregon State University and the Walla Walla Basin Watershed Council (WWBWC). This thesis provides explanation and documentation of model development. This includes details of data collection and processing for groundwater and surface water conditions, estimation of initial and boundary conditions, parameter calibration, model validation, and error analysis. Data sources include federal and state agencies, a gauge network managed by the WWBWC, and geologic research primarily performed by Kevin Lindsey of GSI Water Solutions with support of the WWBWC. Parameters have been independently determined from field measurements whenever possible. Otherwise they were estimated using established methods of hydrologic analysis, values drawn from previous regional studies, or the process of model calibration. Outputs include detailed hydrological budgets and hydrographs for groundwater and surface water gauges. The calibrated model has an overall correlation coefficient of 0.59 for groundwater and 0.63 for surface water. The standard deviation for groundwater is 3.2 meters at 62 well locations and surface water has a mean relative error of 22.3 percent at 34 gauges. This model intended as a tool for formulating water budgets for the basin under present conditions and making predictions of systemic responses to hypothetical water management scenarios. Scenarios of increased inputs into the Locher Road aquifer recharge site and conversion of irrigation district canals into pipelines are presented. / Graduation date: 2012

This research project focuses on the Walla Walla River Basin located on the east side of the states of Oregon and Washington, USA. With the support and collaboration of the Walla Walla Basin Watershed Council, this work embraces four research topics. The first topic includes the feasibility study of artificial aquifer recharge in the Walla Walla Basin. Through development and application of a regional hydrological model, a methodology for evaluating locations of artificial aquifer recharge is presented with a test case. The second research topic evaluates the recharge rates observed from pilot test studies of artificial aquifer recharge. Scale dependence of recharge rates should be considered when excessive induced groundwater mounding forms beneath the infiltrating basins. The third topic utilizes groundwater tracers and simulation models to evaluate the hydraulic connection of springs to infiltrating basins of artificial aquifer recharge. Finally, the fourth topic as a proof of a technique, utilizes distributed temperature sensing technology with a pair of black and white coated fiber optic cables to estimate the effective exposure to solar radiation over the Walla Walla River. / Graduation date: 2013

Le changement climatique dû à l'augmentation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre est considéré comme l'un des principaux défis pour les êtres humains dans 21ème siècle. Il conduira à des changements dans les précipitations, l'humidité atmosphérique, augmentation de l'évaporation et probablement augmenter la fréquence des événements extrêmes. Les conséquences de ces phénomènes auront une influence sur de nombreux aspects de la société humaine. Donc, il y a une nécessité d'avoir une estimation robuste et précise de la variation des facteurs naturels dus au changement climatique, au moins dans les événements de cycle et d'inondation hydrologiques pour fournir une base solide pour atténuer les impacts du changement climatique et s'adapter à ces défis. Le but de cette étude est de présenter une méthodologie pour évaluer les impacts de différents scénarios de changement climatique sur une zone inondable du bassin de la rivière côtière dans la région centrale du Viet Nam - bassin versant de Vu Gia Thu Bon. Les simulations hydrologiques sont basées sur un modèle hydrologique déterministe validé qui intègre la géologie, les sols, la topographie, les systèmes fluviaux et les variables climatiques. Le climat de la journée présente, sur la période de 1991-2010 a été raisonnablement simulée par le modèle hydrologique. Climat futur (2091-2100) information a été obtenue à partir d'une réduction d'échelle dynamique des modèles climatiques mondiaux. L'étude analyse également les changements dans la dynamique des inondations de la région de l'étude, le changement hydrologique et les incertitudes du changement climatique simulation. / Climate change due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions is considered to be one of the major challenges to mankind in the 21st century. It will lead to changes in precipitation, atmospheric moisture, increase in evaporation and probably a higher frequency of extreme events. The consequences of these phenomena will have an influence on many aspects of human society. Particularly at river deltas, coastal regions and developing countries, the impacts of climate change to socio-economic development become more serious. So there is a need for a robust and accurate estimation of the variation of natural factors due to climate change, at least in the hydrological cycle and flooding events to provide a strong basis for mitigating the impacts of climate change and to adapt to these challenges. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to assess the impacts of different climate change scenarios on a flood prone area of a coastal river basin in the central region of Viet Nam – Vu Gia Thu Bon catchment. The hydrological simulations are based on a validated deterministic hydrological model which integrates geology, soil, topography, river systems and climate variables. The present day climate, over the period of 1991-2010 was reasonably simulated by the hydrological model. Future climate (2091-2100) information was obtained from a dynamical downscaling of the global climate models. The study also analyzes the changes in the flood dynamics of the study region, the hydrological shift and the uncertainties of climate change simulation.