I området Ren i Bollnäs kommun ska exploatering av ett nytt bostadsområde ske utifrån detaljplan Ren 30:1. Vanligtvis genomförs hydrologisk modellering med nationella höjdmodellen (NH) som underlag inför exploatering. Med hjälp av metoder som skyfallskartering kan risken för översvämning och dess eventuella konsekvenser förutses. NH tillhandahålls av Lantmäteriet och finns tillgänglig som punktmoln och 2 m raster och kan användas som underlag för hydrologiska modelleringar. NH lämpar sig bäst för nationell och regional planering som ska göras översiktligt på grund av punkttätheten som är förhållandevis låg. Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka olika underlag för hydrologisk modellering genom att jämföra NH mot digitala höjdmodeller från data insamlat med unmanned aerial system (UAS) på flyghöjderna 80 och 120 m. UAS-flygningarna utfördes med en drönare av modellen DJI Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 som samlade in höjddata fotogrammetriskt. Bearbetning, georeferering och skapande av höjdmodell utfördes i programvarorna Agisoft Photoscan och ESRI ArcGIS. GNSS med nätverks-RTK användes för inmätning av flygsignaler och kontrollprofiler. Hydrologisk modellering genomfördes med beräkningar av flödesriktning och flödesackumulation på underlag från NH och flygdata insamlat med UAS i ArcGIS. På alla underlag genomfördes skyfallskarteringar i Caesar Lisflood-FP. Eftersom Caesar Lisflood-FP hade en begränsning för hur stora mängder data som kunde hanteras ändrades cellstorleken på rastren till 1 m istället för 0,5 m, NH utvärderades i originalstorleken 2 m.Med UAS erhölls en högre punkttäthet och utifrån det kunde ett mer högupplöst raster på 0,5 m skapas jämfört med NH med en rasterstorlek på 2 m. Kontroll av höjddata från 120 m och 80 m visade att den lägre flyghöjden genererade en höjdmodell med högre noggrannhet. Utvärdering av överlapp vid skyfallskartering och vattendjup visade att data insamlat med UAS från 120 m och 80 m överensstämde med 96,7 % för vattenutbredning och största vattendjupen var 0,51 m och 0,48 m. Mellan NH och UAS-data fanns större skillnader i både vattendjup och utbredning. Slutsatsen i den här studien blev att olika underlag påverkar den hydrologisk modelleringen genom att t.ex. flödesriktning, vattendjup och utbredning avviker beroende på vilket underlag som används (UAS eller NH) men även upplösning och flyghöjd. / In the area Ren in Bollnäs municipality, development of a new residential area shall take place based on detailed development plan Ren 30: 1. Hydrological modeling with the national height model (NH) is usually carried out as a basis for development. Using methods such as mapping rainfall, the risk of flooding and its possible consequences can be predicted. NH is available at Lantmäteriet as point cloud and 2 m grid and can be used as a basis for hydrological modeling. NH is best suited for national and regional planning to be done briefly, because of the point density that is relatively low. The purpose of this study was to investigate different data sources for hydrological modeling by comparing NH against digital height models collected with unmanned aerial system (UAS) at flight heights of 80 and 120 m. The UAS flights were performed using the model DJI Phantom 4 Pro V2.0 which collected height data photogrammetric. Processing, geo-referencing and creation of height model were performed in the Agisoft Photoscan and ESRI ArcGIS software. GNSS with network RTK was used for surveying flight signals and control profiles. Hydrological modeling was carried out with calculations of flow direction and flow accumulation based on NH and UAS data in ArcGIS. Rainfall modeling were carried out in Caesar Lisflood-FP. Since Caesar Lisflood-FP had a limit on how large amounts of data could be handled, the cell size of the raster was changed to 1 m instead of 0.5 m, NH was evaluated in the original size 2 m. A higher point density was obtained with UAS and due to that, a higher resolution grid of 0.5 m could be created compared to NH with a grid size of 2 m. Control of height data from 120 m and 80 m showed that the lower flight height generated a height model with higher accuracy. The evaluation of rainfall mapping and water depth showed that data collected with UAS from 120 m and 80 m corresponded to 96.7% in water extent, and the largest water depths were 0.51 and 0.48 m. Between NH and the two UAS data, there were greater differences in both water depth and extent. The conclusion in this study was that different basis affect the hydrological modeling by for example flow direction, water depth and water spread differ depending on the data source (UAS or NH) as well on the resolution used, and the flight height.

Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse portent sur la notion de performance environnementale comme cadre analytique pour l’étude des impacts des activités agricoles sur l’environnement. Après avoir mis en évidence un manque de formalisation de cette notion dans la littérature, nous la définissons comme la distance entre l’état environnemental d’un écosystème à un moment donné et un état environnemental à atteindre pour cet écosystème, dit « de haute performance environnementale ». Dans cette étude, l’état environnemental est approché par trois critères liés à la ressource « eau » : les concentrations en nitrates et en matières en suspension, et les débits.Suite à la description de l’état initial, nous proposons une méthode d’optimisation de la performance environnementale des activités agricoles basée sur un couplage entre un modèle agro-hydrologique (SWAT) et un modèle d’optimisation multicritère (Weighted Goal Programming). La démarche d’optimisation considère la réaffectation spatialisée de systèmes de culture sur l’espace considéré comme facteur d’amélioration, les différents critères de l’optimisation étant examinés simultanément.La méthode est implémentée sur le bassin versant de la Boulouze (coteaux de Gascogne). Les résultats montrent une amélioration de la performance environnementale du système étudié. L’analyse de la nouvelle occupation des sols souligne qu’au-delà des évolutions quantitatives des surfaces allouées aux systèmes de culture, la spatialisation des changements d’un système vers un autre influe également sur la performance environnementale à l’échelle du bassin versant. Enfin, nous interrogeons l’applicabilité de cette méthode et mettons en évidence l’intérêt qu’elle présente comme outil à la fois de modélisation de scénarios et de communication. / We introduce in this thesis the notion of environmental performance as an analytical framework aimed at studying the impacts of agricultural activities on the environment. We outline first a need to formalize this notion and then define it as the distance between the “environmental” state of a system at a specific time and a state of “high environmental performance” to achieve. Focus is on water management at the watershed level with three criteria: nitrogen, sediments (water quality) and water flows (water quantity).Our aim is to optimize the environmental performance of agricultural activities at the watershed scale. First the initial status of the watershed is described, then a method is proposed. This method is based on a coupling between an agro-hydrological model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the Weighted Goal Programming optimization method. Our purpose is the reallocation of farming systems within the watershed when considering the optimization criteria simultaneously.We implement this method on the Boulouze watershed (coteaux de Gascogne, in the southwestern part of France). Results outline an improvement of the environmental performance. The analysis of the new land-use plan emphasizes the fact that the changes of farming systems are not only due to evolutions of the surfaces where they are implemented, but that the environmental performance at watershed scale is also affected by their location.Finally we explore the applicability of the method used highlighting its attributes as a relevant tool for modeling scenarios and for communicating.

La gestion des eaux pluviales urbaines connait une évolution majeure depuis les années 1960 : d'une stratégie basée sur l'évacuation rapide et totale des eaux pluviales de la ville, on passe progressivement à une stratégie de contrôle à la source (CS). Ces 10 dernières années ont vu une généralisation du CS, ainsi qu'en témoigne l'augmentation du nombre de réglementations de rejet. Ces dernières imposent, dans les nouvelles parcelles urbanisées, la réalisation d'ouvrages ayant pour fonction de réguler et/ou de retenir les eaux pluviales : les techniques alternatives (TA). Une systématisation de ces réglementations ne va pas manquer de générer dans l'avenir de nombreux bassins versants urbains fortement équipés en TA, et dont le comportement hydrologique sera déterminé par les réglementations appliquées. Il apparaît que le choix d'une réglementation par une collectivité est un choix complexe et, d'une collectivité à l'autre, des logiques différentes sont appliquées, dont la cohérence globale peut être discutée. Cette thèse questionne et analyse les politiques de CS, et en particulier les réglementations de rejet, dans une perspective de compréhension de leurs effets hydrologiques dans le long terme. Elle comprend deux analyses complémentaires : nous étudions d'abord l'évolution des politiques de CS dans six collectivités en France, afin de déterminer les logiques appliquées dans le choix des réglementations. Nous présentons ensuite une analyse hydrologique des conséquences de ces réglementations sur le comportement de bassins versant urbains "modèles". Cette analyse, centrée sur la modélisation hydrologique des bassins, permet de questionner les politiques de CS actuelles, mais aussi de discuter des outils que l'hydrologie urbaine peut fournir pour permettre la mise en place de politiques de CS cohérentes, en phase avec le fonctionnement hydrologique des bassins versants / Urban stormwater management is facing a major evolution since 1960: from a strategy based on the complete and fast conveyance of stormwater outside of the urban area, to a strategy based on source control (SC). Recently, SC is becoming a common practice, in connection with the increasing diffusion of flow regulations. These regulations prescribe, for all new urban development, to build facilities (Best Management Practices, BMP) to reduce the flow-rate or the volume of stormwater entering the sewer system. A wide application of flow regulations will determine the future hydrological behaviour of many urban catchments. The choice of a regulation is a complex task for local authorities, involving several logics, whose global coherence can be discussed. This thesis analyses SC policies and regulations and discusses them in terms of their long-term hydrological effects. Two complementary approaches are developed. The first is based on the analysis of the evolution of SC policies in six French authorities, and it aims to define and discuss the logics applied. The second consists in the hydrological modelling of the consequences of SC regulations on the behaviour of two experimental catchments. This hydrological analysis allows (i) to evaluate the pertinence of actual SC policies and (ii) to discuss which tools urban hydrology can provide to support the development of coherent SC policies, according to the hydrological functioning of urban catchments

Os atuais e persistentes cenários de enchentes da Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, e suas consequências em seu espaço e cotidiano, evidenciam a complexidade dessa problemática. A recorrência das enchentes sugere que, mesmo diante da adoção de medidas de controle, combate e mitigação, tais ações demonstraram-se insuficientes, estando associadas a limitações das metodologias e dos modelos a serem abordados. Este estudo relaciona-se a esta última proposição, testando e aplicando formas de integração das abordagens geomorfológicas, às abordagens oriundas da hidrologia e da hidráulica. O objetivo foi analisar as variabilidades temporal e espacial dos resultados de simulações hidrológicas e hidráulicas e compará-los aos mapeamentos obtidos pela Geomorfologia Antropogênica a partir da cartografia geomorfológica evolutiva na bacia hidrográfica do córrego Três Pontes (SP), de modo a identificar potenciais de complementariedade e integração dessas metodologias. Primeiramente, realizou-se a fotointerpretação e reconstituição das morfologias originais (1962) e das formas antropogênicas (2011), gerando cartografias de perturbação que assumiram diferentes graus de susceptibilidades às inundações e ao escoamento superficial concentrado. Em seguida, modelos hidrológicos (Ven Te Chow SCS e Hidrograma Unitário SCS, pelo ABC6) e hidráulico (pelo HECRAS) foram aplicados nos cenários reconstituídos anteriormente, determinando o aumento da vazão de pico e das áreas inundadas entre os anos estudados para tormentas de diferentes tempos de retornos. Os resultados das modelagens hidrológicas e hidráulicas demonstraram aumento significativo da vazão de pico e uma ampliação expressiva da área inundada na BHTP entre 1962 e 2011. Comparados os limites de áreas inundadas obtidos pela modelagem hidráulica à cartografia de vulnerabilidade à inundação, constatou-se uma compatibilidade de resultados. Por um lado, foram identificadas e discutidas limitações relacionadas aos pressupostos, parâmetros e coeficientes de ambas as metodologias; por outro lado, foram assinalados potenciais de integração entre elas. De modo geral, pode-se afirmar que os resultados obtidos contribuem ao conhecimento hidrológico e geomorfológico urbanos, em especial à área de estudo, e constitui um esforço interdisciplinar de aproximar duas especialidades fundamentais ao planejamento territorial urbano. / The current and persistent flooding scenarios in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo, and their consequences on its space and life, point out to the complexity of this issue. The recurrence of flooding suggests that, even though policies of control, ordering and mitigation were adopted, its measures demonstrated not to be enough, associated with limitations of the methodologies and hydrological and hydraulic forecast models. This research is related to this last proposition, testing and applying ways in which the approaches of geomorphology, hydrology and hydraulics, can be integrated. Therefore, the study aims to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of hydrologic and hydraulic simulations results and to compare them with the mappings obtained by Anthropogenic Geomorphology from evolutionary geomorphological mapping at the stream Três Pontes basin, in order to identify the dialogues and potentials of integration between these methodologies. Firstly, airphotos and satellite images were interpreted and the original morphologies (1962) and anthropogenic forms (2011) reconstructed and mapped, from which disturbance maps were produced considering different susceptibilities to flooding and concentration of discharges. Afterwards, hydrological models (Ven Te Chow-SCS and Unit Hydrograph-SCS using ABC6 ) and hydraulic models (using HEC-RAS ) were applied considering the same scenarios previously reconstituted and, as a result, the increase on peak discharge and of flooding areas, between 1962 e 2011, were determined for different recurrence intervals. When compared, the boundaries of flooded areas obtained through the hydraulic modeling and the flood susceptibility cartography, demonstrated the compatibilities between the results. Limitations of some parameters, coefficients and assumptions related to both methodologies were identified and discussed, as well as, the potential of integration between the two. As a whole, the obtained results contribute to the urban hydrological and geomorphological knowledge, especially in the studied area, and constitute an interdisciplinary effort to approximate two fundamental territorial planning fields.

Vários trabalhos relacionados ao tema produção de água estão sendo realizados, tendo em comum a associação da cobertura florestal com o escoamento em bacias hidrográficas. Entretanto, não existem estudos onde foram verificados os locais onde esta cobertura tem efeito ótimo, pois, este é dependente das condições edafoclimáticas de cada bacia. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar as alterações na produção de água ocasionadas pela posição das áreas com cobertura florestal em relação às de solos rasos em uma bacia hidrográfica. Os estudos foram realizados na Bacia Hidrográfica do Ribeirão dos Marins em Piracicaba, SP, Brasil, por meio da modelagem hidrológica utilizando o modelo distribuído GSSHA. Para a calibração foram utilizados dados meteorológicos, fluviométricos e pluviométricos dos anos de 1999 e 2000, além da obtenção, em laboratório, da condutividade hidráulica e da curva de retenção dos solos da bacia. Foram realizadas sondagens SPT e testes de infiltração de água no solo para determinar a espessura dos solos na bacia e a condutividade hidráulica da zona saturada (lençol freático) desta. A espessura dos solos foi representada por um modelo numérico, elaborado a partir das espessuras medidas e da utilização do modelo HAND. A profundidade do lençol freático foi representada por outro modelo numérico, elaborado a partir da espessura do solo e da profundidade deste lençol medida em campo. Uma nova metodologia que, a partir do coeficiente CN, estima o coeficiente de rugosidade de Manning foi utilizada, apresentando resultados satisfatórios. Nos processos de calibração e validação o modelo apresentou coeficientes de índices de correlação adequados. Foram feitas simulações hidrológicas para 15 anos em três cenários de uso e ocupação do solo, que foram elaborados de modo a comparar uma mesma área de cobertura florestal em diferentes posições da bacia, em função da presença de solos rasos nas proximidades dos cursos d\'água. Foram analisados, entre os cenários para todo o período simulado: o escoamento total e o de base; parâmetros dos hidrogramas (em eventos selecionados da série histórica); posição do lençol freático; umidade do solo; e, curva de permanência. Os resultados permitiram concluir que na área de estudo não há influência da posição da cobertura florestal em relação aos solos rasos para a produção de água. Devido à existência de poucos trabalhos a campo e, também, de modelagem que abordem o efeito da localização da cobertura florestal na produção de água, incentiva-se a realização de novas pesquisas, necessárias, entre outras razões, para a determinação dos locais prioritários a reflorestar ou manter florestado em programas de conservação ambiental. / Several works related to the theme of water production are being made, having in common the association of forest cover with runoff in watersheds. However, no studies were found where the places where this land cover has optimum effect, because it is dependent on climatic and physiographic conditions of each watershed. The objective of this study is to evaluate changes in water yield caused by the spatial distribution of forest cover in relation to the shallow soils in a watershed. The studies were conducted in the watershed \"Ribeirão dos Marins\" in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, through the hydrologic modeling using the distributed model GSSHA. For calibration were used data of meteorological, rainfall and stream flow to the years 1999 and 2000, in addition of the hydraulic conductivity and soil water retention curve obtained in laboratory. SPT tests and water infiltration tests were conducted to determine the thickness of the soils and hydraulic conductivity of the saturated zone (water table) in the watershed. The thickness of the soil was represented by a numerical model, based on those thicknesses measures and the model HAND. The depth of the water table was represented by another numerical model, drawn from the soil thickness and depth of field measured. A new methodology that estimates the Manning coefficient from the CN coefficient was used with satisfactory results. In the processes of calibration and validation of the model, the coefficients showed adequate correlation indexes. Hydrological simulations were made for 15 years in three land cover and land use scenarios, which have been prepared in order to compare the same area of forest cover in different positions of the basin, due to the presence of shallow soils near watercourses. Were analyzed, among the scenarios simulated for the entire period: total flow and baseflow; parameters of hydrographs (in selected events of the series); position of the water table, available water content; and flow duration curves. The results showed that in the study area there is no influence of the position of forest cover in relation to shallow soils to the water yield. Because there are few studies that address the effect of the location of forest cover in water yield is encouraged to conduct further research, among other reasons, for the determination of the priority sites to the reforestation in environmental conservation programs.

La thèse explore l’utilisation de modèles hydrologiques globaux pour estimer la disponibilité en eau agricole dans le contexte des Andes chiliennes semi-arides. Dans cette région, l’approvisionnement en eau des cultures irriguées de fonds de vallée durant l’été dépend de précipitations se produisant sous forme de neige à haute altitude lors de quelques évènements hivernaux. L’influence des phénomènes ENSO et PDO induit par ailleurs une forte variabilité climatique à l’échelle inter-annuelle, marquée par l’occurrence d’années extrêmement sèches ou humides. La région connaît aussi depuis les années 1980 une progression importante de la viticulture irriguée. Afin de prendre en compte les variations saisonnières et inter-annuelles de la disponibilité et de la consommation en eau d’irrigation, une chaîne de modélisation intégrée a été développée et différentes méthodes de quantification/réduction des incertitudes de simulation ont été mises en œuvre. Les écoulements naturels ont été simulés avec un modèle hydrologique global de type empirique/conceptuel prenant en compte les processus d’accumulation et d’ablation de la neige. En parallèle, les besoins en eau d’irrigation ont été estimés à l’échelle du bassin à partir de modèles phénologiques orientés processus et d’une approche simple du bilan hydrique du sol. Dans l’ensemble, une approche holistique et parcimonieuse a été privilégiée afin de maintenir un niveau d’abstraction mathématique et de représentation des processus équivalent à celui des modèles de bassin couramment utilisés. Afin d’améliorer l’utilité et la fiabilité des simulations obtenues en contexte de changement ou de forte variabilité climatique, l’effet des températures extrêmes sur le développement des cultures et l’impact des pertes en eau par sublimation à haute altitude ont fait l’objet d’une attention particulière. Ce cadre de modélisation conceptuel a été testé pour un bassin typique des Andes semi-arides (1512 km2, 820–5500 m a.s.l.) sur une période de 20 ans incluant une large gamme de conditions climatiques et des pratiques agricoles non-stationnaires (évolution des variétés de vigne, des surfaces et modes d’irrigation, etc). L’évaluation des modèles a été réalisée dans un cadre bayésien en faisant l’hypothèse d’erreurs auto-corrélées, hétéroscédastiques et non-gaussiennes. Différents critères et sources de données ont par ailleurs été mobilisés afin de vérifier l’efficacité et la cohérence interne de la chaîne de modélisation ainsi que la fiabilité statistique et la finesse des intervalles de confiance obtenus. De manière alternative, une caractérisation des erreurs de structure et de l’ambiguïté propre au choix du modèle hydrologique a été réalisée de manière non-probabiliste à partir d’une plate-forme de modélisation modulaire. Dans l’ensemble, la prise en compte explicite de la consommation en eau des cultures a mis en valeur certaines interactions entre paramètres hydrologiques et permis d’améliorer la fiabilité des simulations hydrologiques en année sèche. Finalement, une étude de sensibilité à différents seuils d’augmentation de la température et de la concentration en CO2 a été effectuée afin d’évaluer l’impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur le comportement de l’hydrosystème et la capacité à satisfaire la demande en eau d’irrigation dans le futur. / This thesis investigates the use of lumped catchment models to assess water availability for irrigation in the upland areas of northern-central Chile (30°S). Here, most of the annual water supply falls as snow in the high Cordillera during a few winter storms. Seasonal snowpacks serve as natural reservoirs, accumulating water during the winter and sustaining streams and aquifers during the summer, when irrigation demand in the cultivated valleys is at its peak. At the inter-annual timescale, the influence of ENSO and PDO phenomena result in the occurrence of extremely wet and dry years. Also, irrigated areas and grape growing have achieved a dramatic increase since the early 1980s. To evaluate the usefulness of explicitly accounting for changes in irrigation water-use in lumped catchment models, an integrated modeling framework was developed and different ways of quantifying/reducing model uncertainty were explored. Natural streamflow was simulated using an empirical hydrological model and a snowmelt routine. In parallel, seasonal and inter-annual variations in irrigation requirements were estimated using several process-based phenological models and a simple soil-water balance approach. Overall, this resulted in a low-dimensional, holistic approach based on the same level of mathematical abstraction and process representation as in most commonly-used catchment models. To improve model reliability and usefulness under varying or changing climate conditions, particular attention was paid to the effects of extreme temperatures on crop phenology and the contribution of sublimation losses to water balance at high elevations. This conceptual framework was tested in a typical semi-arid Andean catchment (1512 km2, 820–5500 m a.s.l.) over a 20–year simulation period encompassing a wide range of climate and water-use conditions (changes in grape varieties, irrigated areas, irrigation techniques). Model evaluation was performed from a Bayesian perspective assuming auto-correlated, heteroscedastic and non-gaussian residuals. Different criteria and data sources were used to verify model assumptions in terms of efficiency, internal consistency, statistical reliability and sharpness of the predictive uncertainty bands. Alternatively, a multiple-hypothesis and multi-criteria modeling framework was also developed to quantify the importance of model non-uniqueness and structural inadequacy from a non-probabilistic perspective. On the whole, incorporating the effects of irrigation water-use led to new interactions between the hydrological parameters of the modeling framework and improved reliability of streamflow predictions during low-flow periods. Finally, a sensitivity analysis to changes in climate conditions was conducted to evaluate the potential impacts of increasing temperatures and atmospheric CO2 on the hydrological behavior of the catchment and the capacity to meet future water demands.

Neste estudo, trata-se de avaliar fontes de precipitação baseadas em estimativas por satélite e técnicas de assimilação de dados para previsão de vazões por meio do modelo hidrológico distribuído MGB-IPH. A insuficiente representatividade espacial dos pluviômetros torna difícil a correta representação dos campos de precipitações. Por outro lado, as estimativas de satélite, embora forneçam uma descrição espacial mais consistente, são potencialmente menos acuradas. Sendo assim, procura-se utilizar métodos que combinem os dados de ambas as fontes para gerar um campo de precipitação mais consistente. Neste trabalho, implementaramse dois modelos de combinação pluviômetro-satélite, CHUVSAT e MERGEHQ, através de uma metodologia de interpolação. Por outro lado, as técnicas de assimilação de dados acoplados aos modelos de previsão hidrológica são também de interesse neste estudo, pois minimizam as incertezas associadas ao processo de calibração de parâmetros, às variáveis de estado e dados de entrada do modelo hidrológico. Para esse propósito, escolheu-se a bacia do rio Tocantins e implementou-se particularmente a técnica de assimilação de dados de tipo sequencial chamado na literatura de filtro de partículas, conjuntamente com o método de filtro Kalman por conjunto e o método de assimilação AsMGB atualmente acoplado ao modelo MGB-IPH. O estudo mostra que a precipitação combinada utilizada como dado de entrada na simulação hidrológica permitiu reproduzir adequadamente os hidrogramas observados para o período de calibração e validação. Já para o caso das vazões resultantes, durante a etapa de previsão, a precipitação combinada mostrou-se com melhor desempenho em termos estatísticos que os métodos sem combinar, sobretudo após 24 horas de antecedência. Finalmente, a técnica de assimilação de dados por filtro de partículas conseguiu absorver os erros da simulação melhorando as medidas de desempenho na etapa de previsão sendo superior ao modelo de previsão sem considerar assimilação. / The objective of this study is to evaluate precipitation sources based on satellite estimates and data assimilation techniques for prediction of flows by means of the distributed hydrological model MGB-IPH. The insufficient spatial availability of rain gauges makes difficult to represent precipitation fields appropriately. In contrast, satellite estimates, although providing a more consistent spatial description, are potentially less accurate. Thus, raingauge satellite merging methods that combine data from both sources to generate a more consistent precipitation field are used herein. For this purpose, two models namely CHUVSAT and MERGEHQ were implemented using an interpolation technique. On the other hand, data assimilation techniques coupled with hydrological forecasting models are also assessed in this study. The assimilation process minimizes the uncertainties associated with the parameter calibration procedure, variable state and hydrological input data. In this manner, the sequential data assimilation technique namely particle filter in conjunction with the Kalman filter method and the assimilation method AsMGB, which is currently coupled to the MGBIPH model, were implemented and applied to the Tocantis basin. The obtained results showed that the combined precipitation used as input data in the hydrological simulation allowed reproducing adequately the observed hydrograms for the periods of calibration and validation. In the case of the resulting flows during the forecast stage, the merging precipitation was shown to perform better in statistical terms than the uncombined methods, especially after 24 hours in advance. Finally, the data assimilation technique by particle filter was able to absorb all simulation errors, improving the performance measures in the forecasting stage, thus being superior to the forecasting model without considering assimilation.

Neste trabalho foi proposta uma estratégia de modelagem hidrológica para a transformação chuva vazão da Bacia do Ribeirão da Onça (B.R.O) utilizando-se técnicas de auto calibração com análise de incertezas e de ponderação de modelos. Foi utilizado o modelo hidrológico Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), por ser um modelo que possui uma descrição física e de maneira distribuída dos processos hidrológicos da bacia. Foram propostas cinco diferentes séries de precipitação e esquemas de interpolação espacial a serem utilizados como dados de entrada para o modelo SWAT. Em seguida, utilizou-se o método semiautomático Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver.-2 (SUFI-2) para a auto calibração e análise de incertezas dos parâmetros do modelo e produção de respostas com intervalos de incerteza para cada uma das séries de precipitação utilizadas. Por fim, foi utilizado o método de ponderação bayesiana de modelos (BMA) para o pós-processamento estocástico das respostas. Os resultados da análise de incerteza dos parâmetros do modelo SWAT indicam uma não adequação do método Soil Conservation Service (SCS) para simulação da geração do escoamento superficial, juntamente com uma necessidade de maior investigação das propriedades físicas do solo da bacia. A análise da precisão e acurácia dos resultados das séries de precipitação em comparação com a resposta combinada pelo método BMA sugerem a última como a mais adequada para a simulação chuva-vazão na B.R.O. / This study proposed an approach to the hydrological modeling of the Ribeirão da Onças Basin (B.R.O) based on automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis methods, together with model averaging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used due to its distributed nature and physical description of hydrologic processes. An ensemble, composed by five different precipitation schemes, based on different sources and spatial interpolation methods was used. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver-2 (SUFI-2) procedure was used for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis of the SWAT model parameters, together with generation of streamflow simulations with uncertainty intervals. Following, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was used to merge the different responses into a single probabilistic forecast. The results of the uncertainty analysis for the SWAT parameters show that the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model for surface runoff prediction may not be suitable for the B.R.O, and that more investigations about the soil physical properties at the Basin are recommended. An analysis of the accuracy and precision of the simulations produced by the precipitation ensemble members against the BMA simulation supports the use of the latter as a suitable framework for streamflow simulations at the B.R.O.

The spatial patterns of land surface and subsurface characteristics determine the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Soil depth is one of these characteristics and an important input parameter required by distributed hydrological models that explicitly represent spatial heterogeneity. Soil is related to topography and land cover due to the role played by topography and vegetation in affecting soil-forming processes. The research described in this dissertation addressed the development of statistical models that predict the soil depth pattern over the landscape; derivation of new topographic variables evaluated using both serial and parallel algorithms; and evaluation of the impacts of detailed soil depth representation on simulations of stream flow and soil moisture. The dissertation is comprised of three papers. In paper 1, statistical models were developed to predict soil depth pattern over the watershed based on topographic and land cover variables. Soil depth was surveyed at locations selected to represent the topographic and land cover variation at the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise, Idaho. Explanatory variables were derived from a digital elevation model and remote sensing imagery for regression to the field data. Generalized Additive and Random Forests models were developed to predict soil depth over the watershed. The models were able to explain about 50% of the soil depth spatial variation, which is an important improvement over the soil depth extracted from the SSURGO national soil database. In paper 2, definitions of the new topographic variables derived in the effort to model soil depth, and serial and Message Passing Interface parallel implementations of the algorithms for their evaluation are presented. The parallel algorithms enhanced the processing speed of large digital elevation models as compared to the serial recursive algorithms initially developed. In paper 3, the impact of spatially explicit soil depth information on simulations of stream flow and soil moisture as compared to soil depth derived from the SSURGO soil database has been evaluated. The Distributed Hydrology Vegetation Soil Model was applied using automated parameter optimization technique with all input parameters the same except soil depth. Stream flow was less impacted by the detailed soil depth information, while simulation of soil moisture was slightly improved due to the detailed representation of soil depth.

Submitted by CAIO VINICIUS FERREIRA MARMONTEL (caioomarmontel@gmail.com) on 2018-05-30T19:16:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_caiovfmarmontel.pdf: 3393744 bytes, checksum: c80daca7ae4e8871496c00cb8b548ba6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Lucia Martins Frederico null (mlucia@fca.unesp.br) on 2018-06-04T13:57:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marmontel_cvf_dr_botfca.pdf: 3241299 bytes, checksum: 194185ca33e9c13c6ba04b1dabe49aae (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-04T13:57:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marmontel_cvf_dr_botfca.pdf: 3241299 bytes, checksum: 194185ca33e9c13c6ba04b1dabe49aae (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-03 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A água disponível para o consumo humano vem se tornando cada vez mais escassa, um exemplo, foi a crise hídrica iniciada em 2014 na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Diante desse problema, uma possibilidade de melhorar a compreensão do comportamento hidrológico, é a utilização de tecnologias, ou seja, as bases computacionais, em especial a integração do SIG com a modelagem hidrológica, por possuir um grande potencial de estimar quantitativamente a vazão. O presente estudo teve como objetivo testar a aplicabilidade do modelo hidrológico SWAT para estimação de vazões em um trecho da bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna - Vale do Paraíba, região da Mata Atlântica, no estado de São Paulo. O rio Paraibuna utiliza suas águas para gerar energia elétrica e é um dos formadores do rio Paraíba do Sul, importante corpo d’água da região sudeste do Brasil. Os dados climáticos e fluviométricos foram coletados no LHFWE/PESM-NC com uma série histórica de 22 anos. O trecho da bacia hidrográfica estudada tem elevação de 974 a 1662 metros, cinco tipos de solos e três tipos de usos da terra. As avaliações dos dados observados e simulados na calibração e validação foram feitas por meio da avaliação dos gráficos-visuais de dispersão, hidrogramas e índices estatísticos pelo SWAT-CUP. Os dados gerados do balanço hídrico pelo SWAT, após a calibração foram valores próximos com a realidade. Na calibração e validação foi verificado boa aderência entre os dados simulados e observados, ou seja, os valores simulados reconheceram os picos e recessões dos valores observados. Os índices estatísticos (NS, PBIAS, RSR e R²) calculados para a calibração e validação do SWAT foram qualificados como “muito bom” para a estimação das vazões. Os resultados confirmaram a aplicabilidade do modelo, dessa forma, pode servir como ferramenta para planejamento e gestão de políticas públicas dos recursos hídricos em bacias hidrográficas, na região da Mata Atlântica. O modelo hidrológico SWAT mostrou-se muito bom e apto para estimação de vazões e do balanço hídrico no trecho da bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna. / The water available for human consumption is becoming increasingly scarce, an example was the water crisis started in 2014 in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. Faced with this problem, one possibility to improve the understanding of hydrological behavior, is the use of technologies, that is, the computational bases, especially the integration of GIS with hydrological modeling, because it has a great potential of quantitatively estimate the flow rate. The present study had as objective to test the applicability of the SWAT hydrological model for flow estimation in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin - Paraiba Valley, in the Atlantic Forest region, in the state of São Paulo. The Paraibuna River uses its waters to generate electricity and is one of the creators of the river South Paraiba, an important body of water in the southeastern region of Brazil. Climatic and fluviometric data were collected at the LHFWE/PESM-NC with a historical series of 22 years. The stretch of the studied basin has elevation of 974 to 1662 meters, five types of soils and three types of land use. The evaluations of the data observed and simulated in the calibration and validation were done by means of the evaluation of the visual graphics of dispersion, hydrograms and statistical indexes by SWAT-CUP. The data generated from the SWAT water balance after calibration, were close to reality. In the calibration and validation, in good adherence was observed between the simulated and observed data, that is, the simulated values recognized the peaks and recessions of the observed values. The statistical indices (NS, PBIAS, RSR and R²) calculated for SWAT calibration and validation were qualified as "very good" for the estimation of flows. The results confirmed the applicability of the model, so it can serve as a tool for planning and management of water resources public policies in watersheds, in the Atlantic Forest region. The SWAT hydrological model was very good and suitable for estimation of flow and water balance in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin. / 1513206