The thesis covers the investigation of the storm water runoff and artificial recharge components of the Atlantis Water Resource Management Scheme in the Southwestern Cape. The objective of the study was to obtain an in-depth knowledge of the process of artificial recharge of urban storm water runoff, in order to identify the most efficient recharge management strategy for the Atlantis aquifer. To achieve the objective it was necessary to first study the existing knowledge on urban storm water hydrology and artificial recharge by spreading, and to create a conceptual model of what might be expected. The study area was then investigated to examine how closely the actual situation was reflected by the conceptual model, enabling recommendations to be made for the sound management of the system. The stormwater runoff component was found to differ from most urban hydrological studies as a result of its large baseflow component. The sandy nature of the catchment, small percentage area of effective impervious surface, and high groundwater table resulted in the baseflow constituting more than 40% of the total storm water runoff and accounting for over 60% of the pollution load. The "first flush" effect established as a major source of pollution in other studies, was found to be of minor significance in this study area. The overall stormwater quality (excluding the noxious industrial baseflow) was found acceptable for artificial recharge within the study area, although the baseflow from the industrial sub-catchments showed the potential for being a major source of pollution in the future. The treated wastewater used for artificial recharge prior to 1987 was found to be unacceptable for recharge purposes. The treated industrial effluent should under no circumstances be recharged up-gradient of the Witzand well field. The treated domestic effluent although of a poorer quality than the resident Witzand well field groundwater could be recharged in order to boost recharge volumes and form a buffer against further intrusion by the poor quality groundwater from the Brakkefontein area. This would however only be acceptable if strict water quality control is maintained and recharge does not take place west of the present basin. The recharge basin was found to be well situated with respect to influencing the Witzand wellfield and maintaining a groundwater buffer against poor quality groundwater flow from the northeast towards the central area of the wellfield. Unfortunately the surrounding low-lying topography and sandy retaining walls have resulted in return flow and raised groundwater-levels. The raised groundwater mound does not comply with the conceptual model and together with the sandy nature of the unsaturated zone resulted in less effective purification during infiltration. The practice of letting large portions of the basin floor dry-out during summer was shown to be beneficial and the periodic cleaning of the deeper portions of the basin essential. The artificially recharged water was found to have influenced the upper portion of the aquifer well beyond the West Coast Road. The study of groundwater quality being a good method for tracing artificially recharged water. The groundwater quality has improved as a result of artificial recharge since the removal of treated wastewater from the recharge basin. The groundwater was (ii) found to be very responsive to the slightest changes in recharge basin water quality or/and quantity. Management of the recharge basin therefore had to be very much of a compromise between qualitative and quantitative approaches. The present approach of recharging all the stormwater runoff throughout the year providing the most efficient compromise under the present conditions. The study revealed that the most efficient recharge management strategy would be the recharge of treated domestic sewage effluent in the present recharge basin and all residential storm water runoff plus industrial "storm flow" stormwater runoff in a new recharge basin located northwest of the present basin. Strict water quality control must be maintained on the water discharged into the basins and an annual wet/dry cycle implemented within the basins to boost infiltration. The entire system should continue being monitored to safe guard the groundwater resource from pollution and over exploitation.

M.Sc. / The Vaal River is the main source of water supply to the central industrial, mining and metropolitan regions of South Africa, and is, therefore, strictly regulated by small dams and weirs. The Vaal Dam is the main regulator of water to the Vaal River and is of great importance as it supplies water for human consumption and also to the industrial powerhouse of South Africa. Situated at the confluence of its major tributaries, namely the Vaal and Wilge Rivers, and straddling the convergence of the borders of Gauteng, Free State and Mpumalanga provinces, the Vaal Dam is approximately 77 km south of Johannesburg. It is South Africa’s second-largest dam in terms of area, and third-largest in terms of volume, and is a key component in South Africa’s water supply infrastructure. Gauteng, as well as the surrounding provinces are reliant on it for their water supply. Water flow fluctuations are deemed to be important as they could negatively impact upon the water quality. Knowledge of the relationship between fluctuating water flows and water quality is important as strategies can then be devised on this basis to improve the freshwater situation of the country, the associated management systems, and treatment technologies. By establishing the nature of the respective relationships between high water flow and the selected water quality parameters, ways could be found of reducing the costs of water quality problems, such as eutrophication. The various relationships between high water flow and the selected water quality parameters of the Vaal Dam that were established during the course of this study are as follows: In terms of pH, the study found that in the event of a decline in the water flow, the pH value increased and the water body became more alkaline. A decrease in water flow was also found to be associated with an increase in EC. An increase in water flow was found to be associated with a decrease in pH, EC and Chlorophyll-a. An increase in water flow up to a certain level was found to be associated with an increase in nitrates, sulphates and COD.

Gully erosion is a significant and widespread feature of southern African wetlands, including the wetlands of the Krom River, Eastern Cape. Gully erosion in wetlands is consistently being viewed as a major contributing factor to wetland degradation and eventual collapse. Many gullies exist in the Krom River and Working for Wetlands has spent large sums of money to stabilise head-cuts with the expectation that further erosion would be halted and possibly avoided altogether. Observations in the Krom River wetlands have revealed that most gullies in the wetland are initiated where the width of the trunk valley has been reduced as a consequence of deposition by tributary alluvial fans that impinge on the trunk valley and reduce its width. The aim of this study was to examine variation in hydrodynamic characteristics for a range of discharges, as flow in the broad Kompanjiesdrif basin (~250 meters wide) is confined in a downstream direction to a width of less than 50 meters by a combination of a large impinging left bank tributary alluvial fan that coincides with a resistant bedrock lithology. The study was done by collecting topographical survey data using a Differential Global Positioning System in order to create a Digital Terrain Model with a suitable resolution. Flow was recorded using a Marsh-McBirney Model 2000 Flo-Mate as well as recording the flood extent for each flow condition; this was used in the calibration process of the model. Vegetation measurements were conducted in order to calculate a roughness value across the valley floor. A two-dimensional raster based flood inundation model, CAESAR-Lisflood and a one-dimensional hydraulic analysis model, HEC-RAS, were then used to simulate different parameters associated with variation in discharge, including flow velocity, water depth and stream power, thereby creating a better understanding of the hydraulic characteristics that may promote the formation of gullies in the wetland. Based on these hydraulic analyses it is evident that the effect of impinging alluvial fans on hydraulic characteristics such as flow velocity, water depth and stream power, may lead to the initiation of gullies within the Krom River wetland. This work improves understanding of the collapse of palmiet wetlands in steep-sided valleys within the Cape Fold Mountains of South Africa, and can aid in wetland management.

PhDENV (Hydrology) / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / This study developed operating rules for groundwater supply from a probabilistic (risk-based) approach. Groundwater supply systems are often operated without relating groundwater yield/availability to demand which makes groundwater resource planning and management challenging and unpredictable. Risk-based approaches for developing groundwater operating rules comprehensively incorporate assurance of supply and also account for uncertainty due to model inputs, model structure and climate variability. A groundwater resource unit (GRU) was delineated and its hydrogeological conceptual model developed. Automatic curve matching was used to identify appropriate aquifer models and test solutions for estimating hydraulic characteristics (storativity, transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity) based on Aquifer Test Solver (AQTESOLV) Pro version 4.5. Limited groundwater levels and rainfall data were infilled and/or extended using Output Error-Nonlinear Hammerstein Weiner (OE-NLHW) and non-parametric regression (NPR), respectively. Performances of these models were based on relative error (RE), correlation coefficient (COR), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE). A program for generation of monthly groundwater levels for the GRU was coded in FORTRAN based on the revised version of the Pitman model (referred to as GW-PITMAN model). The model was calibrated using groundwater levels from a neighbouring borehole due to lack of observed representative data for the GRU. Validation was done by establishing the realistic nature of simulated runoff, recharge and groundwater levels. A Variable Length Block (VLB) bootstrapping model was used for simultaneous generation of stochastic inputs (rainfall, evaporation and groundwater levels) of the groundwater operating rules model. Operating rules were developed from statistical analysis of 100 base yields for the GRU simulated from 5-year long stochastically generated sequences (with length of 34 years) of rainfall, evaporation and groundwater levels. The hydrogeological conceptual model indicated presence of faults and diabase dykes which influence preferential flow paths and storage of water in the aquifer. Identified aquifer test solutions were found to be suitable for estimation of hydraulic characteristics, since they had generally good model fits and low mean residual errors. Heterogeneous aquifer types were identified though leaky aquifer dominated. Storativity, transmissivity and hydraulic conductivity values ranged from 0.0003-0.060, 0.78-12.3 m2/day and 0.074-0.460 m/day, respectively, indicating limited storage with potential for local groundwater supply for private consumption. Graphical fits for observed and estimated rainfall and groundwater levels were mostly comparable, though scatter plots indicated cases of underestimation and overestimation of observed values. R2, COR, NSE, RMSE and RE values were 0.76 and 0.7, 0.87 and 0.84, 0.75 and 0.68, 3.67 and 3.03 mm and 30 and 29% for both calibration and validation runs, respectively, for NPR model. R2, COR, NSE, RMSE and RE were 0.99 and 0.86, 0.97 and 0.93, 0.99 and 0.84, 0.03 and 0.01 m and 0.08 and 0.11% for both calibration and validation runs, respectively, for OE-NLHW model. The models were therefore found to have efficient calibration and validation, and were thus, suitable for data extension. Estimated groundwater levels, streamflow and groundwater recharge for both calibration and validation runs of the GW-PITMAN model, generally fluctuated with changes in rainfall, indicating that they are realistic. Majority (9 out of 10) of the historical statistics were mostly well preserved by VLB, except for skewness. Historic highest groundwater levels were also not well preserved. Superimposing the cumulative demands on the base yield curves and analysis of percentages of water demands that can be supplied indicated that the groundwater system could not meet the water demands at all times. To promote sustainable multipurpose use of water that can enhance rural livelihoods, allocating water using priority classification was found to be essential. Operating rule curves for groundwater supply were derived using a risk-based approach. The operating rule curves indicated that if priority classification is used all water demands are met up to maximum groundwater level of 25 m. The developed operating rule curves are therefore expected to improve water supply to both domestic and productive water uses, if they are adequately implemented and hence improve livelihoods. The procedures followed in developing risk-based groundwater operating rules for Siloam Village were summarised to assist in their application in any delineated groundwater resource unit. Though minimal infrastructure is available to support implementation of the operating rules, additional monitoring boreholes are required to aid in estimation of average groundwater levels for further calibration and validation of the GW-PITMAN model. Detailed geological and geophysical investigation are required to improve on characterisation of the GRU and its hydrogeological conceptual model. Undertaking a study of this nature in other areas including those which are data-scarce could promote wide implementation of risk-based groundwater operating rules. / NRF

In common with other natural systems, aquatic ecosystems provide a wealth of economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. However, growing human populations, coupled with increased aspirations for improved quality of life, have lead to intense pressure on the world's finite freshwater resources. Frequently, particularly in developing countries, there are both perceived and genuine incompatibilities between ecological and societal needs for freshwater. Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA) is essentially a tool for water resources management and its ultimate goal should be the integration of ecological and societal systems. While other ecological components (i.e. biological and geomorphological) are equally important to EFA, this thesis investigates the role of the hydrological cycle and the hydrological regime in providing the ecosystem goods and services upon which society depends. Ecological and societal systems operate at different temporal, spatial and organisational scales and hydronomic zoning or sub-zoning is proposed as an appropriate water resources management technique for matching these different scales. A major component of this thesis is a review of the South African water resources management framework and, in particular, the role of the Reserve (comprising a basic human right to survival water as well as an ecological right of the aquatic resource to maintain ecological functioning) in facilitating ecologically sustainable water resources management. South African water resources management is in the early stages of water allocation reform and the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry has stated that "the water allocation process must allow for the sustainable use of water resources and must promote the efficient and non-wasteful use of water". Thus, new ways of approaching the compromise between ecological and societal needs for freshwater water are required. This thesis argues that this requires that the focus of freshwater ecosystems be extended beyond the aquatic resource, so that societal activities on the catchment are linked to the protection of instream flows. Streamflow variability plays a major role in structuring the habitat templates that sustain aquatic and riparian ecological functioning and has been associated with increased biodiversity. Biodiversity and societal well-being are interlinked. However, there is a need in EFA for knowledge of the most influential components of the streamflow regime in order that stakeholders may anticipate any change in ecosystem goods and services as a result of their disruption to the hydrological cycle. The identification of high information hydrological indicators for characterising highly variable streamflow regimes is useful to water resources management, particularly where thresholds of streamflow regime characteristics have ecological relevance. Several researchers have revisited the choice of hydrological indices in order to ascertain whether some indices explain more of the hydrological variability in different aspects of streamflow regimes than others. However, most of the research relating to hydrological indices has focused primarily on regions with temperate climates. In this thesis multivariate analysis is applied to a relatively large dataset of readily computed ecologically relevant hydrological indices (including the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration and the South African Desktop Reserve Model indices) extracted from long-term records of daily flows at 83 sites across South Africa. Principal Component Analysis is applied in order to highlight general patterns of intercorrelation, or redundancy, among the indices and to identify a minimum subset of hydrological indices which explain the majority of the variation among the indices of different components of the streamflow regimes found in South Africa. The results indicate the value of including several of the IHA indices in EFAs for South African rivers. Statistical analysis is meaningful only when calculated for a sufficiently long hydrological record, and in this thesis the length of record necessary to obtain consistent hydrological indices, with minimal influence of climatic variation, is investigated. The results provide a guide to the length of record required for analysis of the high information hydrological indices representing the main components of the streamflow regime, for different streamflow types. An ecosystem-based approach which recognises the hydrological connectivity of the catchment landscape in linking aquatic and terrestrial systems is proposed as a framework for ecologically sustainable water resources management. While this framework is intended to be generic, its potential for application in the South African Water Allocation Reform is illustrated with a case study for the Mkomazi Catchment in KwaZulu-Natal. Hydronomic sub-zoning, based on the way in which societal activities disrupt the natural hydrological processes, both off-stream and instream, is applied to assess the incompatibilities between societal and ecological freshwater needs. Reference hydrological, or pre-development, conditions in the Mkomazi Catchment are simulated using the ACRU agrohydrological model. Management targets, based on the statistical analysis of pre-development streamflow regimes, are defined to assess the degree of hydrological alteration in the high information hydrological indices of the Mkomazi Catchment as a result of different societal activities. Hydrological alteration from predevelopment conditions is assessed using the Range of Variability Approach. The results indicate that the proposed framework is useful to the formulation of stakeholder-based catchment management plans. Applying hydrological records (either observed or simulated) as an ecological resource is highly appropriate for assessing the variability that ecosystems need to maintain the biodiversity, ecological functioning and resilience that people and society desire. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2006.

The plantation forestry is economically a very important industry in South Africa because it promotes the upliftment of many rural South African communities. However, afforestation has significant impacts on water use and biodiversity in a catchment. Thus, understanding the effects of afforestation on water resources at the catchment level is fundamental for optimal water resource allocation, long-term sustainable use, development and conservation. Much of the Limpopo Province is climatically and physiographically suitable for plantation forestry but it only contains approximately 4.7 % of the total existing plantation area in South Africa. For example, the size of the Letaba Catchment of the Limpopo Province is 13 669 km² but only approximately 484 km² of it is currently afforested. This study aims to identify potential areas for further afforestation in the Letaba Catchment using the Water Resources Modelling Platform (WReMP) model to determine if afforestation can be expanded here to promote development in South Africa‟s poorest Province. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa's system of socio-economic development planning is complex and ine ective. There are many regulatory authorities involved, often with unclear responsibilities and inadequate procedures of implementing objectives. Planning for development in South Africa needs to take various factors into account. Economic growth is pursued, while social imbalances are addressed and the environment is protected against unreasonable damage. The term Sustainable Development is an important concept in the vision of many of the regulating authorities, however, the implementation of sustainability is di cult. This study considers an approach which aligns activities in a specifi ed region to the vision and objectives of the applicable regulatory authorities, as an alternative to achieving objectives strictly through enforcing regulations. This thesis developed an integrated evaluation model which can be used to evaluate the alignment of a small-scale farm to the visions and objectives of certain regulatory authorities. Four small-scale farms in the Letaba catchment of the Limpopo Province were used as a case study to be evaluated against national and regional development visions. On a national level the National Development Plan (NDP), the National Framework for Sustainable Development (NFSD), the Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Strategy (ISRDS) and the principles of Water Allocation Reform (WAR) were regarded. For regional categorisation, the relevant municipal Integrated Development Plan (IDP), Spatial Development Framework (SDF), Local Economic Development (LED) plan and the applicable Catchment Management Strategy (CMS) were considered. The Letaba catchment area has speci c development constraints regarding water. For this reason, the impact the four farms have on the water of the region was evaluated in addition to their alignment with regional development visions. The hydrological evaluations were performed through the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Hereby it was determined whether objectives of development planning were realistic in terms of water availability. It was established that the location of a farm is a determining factor of the impact it has on the catchment area's water supply. The developed Integrated Evaluation Model combined all the visions and objectives of the mentioned strategic documents to speci cally assess the contribution a small-scale farm makes. The evaluation results provide insight into the alignment of activities to the ideals of a region and can be useful when formulating actions to reach a common vision. Small-scale farms are well-aligned to the objectives of WAR, the CMS and ISRDS. The farms have a limited contribution to the ideals of the NDP and NFSD and results against the IDP, the SDF and the LED di er considerably for each farm. Furthermore, the results of the farms' alignment with regional objectives do not correspond to the hydrologically ideal locations. Therefore, the development of small-scale farming should take hydrological information into consideration. The Integrated Evaluation Model proves to be valuable, understandable and applicable to evaluate the alignment of small-scale farms to the visions of regulatory authorities. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika se sisteem van beplanning vir sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling is ingewikkeld en one ektief. Daar is verskillende regulatoriese owerhede betrokke wat maklik aanleiding gee tot onsekerheid ten opsigte van verantwoordelikhede asook tot onvoldoende benaderings tot implementering. Om ontwikkeling in Suid-Afrika suksesvol te laat geskied, moet verskeie faktore inaggeneem word. Behalwe vir die strewe na ekonomiese groei, moet sosiale agterstande gelyktydig aangespreek word en moet hierdie ontwikkeling van so 'n aard wees dat die omgewing nie onnodige skade lei nie. Volhoubaarheid is 'n gemeenskaplike ideaal van die meeste partye betrokke by die beplanning van Suid-Afrika se ontwikkeling. Die implementering van hierdie oogmerk is egter onduidelik. Hierdie studie oorweeg 'n benadering wat alle handelinge in 'n bepaalde gebied in ooreenstemming bring met die visie en doelwitte van die toepaslike regulatoriese owerhede. Hierdie benadering word as 'n alternatief gestel teenoor 'n benadering om doelwitte slegs deur regulasies te bereik. Hierdie tesis het 'n Geïntegreerde Evalueringsmodel ontwikkel wat die mate waartoe 'n klein plaas 'n bydrae maak tot die visie en doelwitte van regulatoriese owerhede meet. Vier kleinskaalse boerderye in die Letaba Opvangsgebied in Limpopo was ondersoek as 'n gevallestudie. Hierdie plase is geëvalueer teen nasionale- en streeksontwikkelingsvisies. Op 'n nasionale vlak is die Nasionale Ontwikkelings Plan (NOP), die Nasionale Raamwerk vir Volhoubare Ontwikkeling (NRVO), die Geïntegreerde Volhoubare Landelike Ontwikkelings Strategie (GVLOS) en die waardes van die Water Toekenning Hervorming (WTH) beskou. Ten opsigte van streeksontwikkeling, is die betrokke munisipale Geïntegreerde Ontwikkelings Plan (GOP), die Ruimtelike Ontwikkelings Raamwerk (ROR), Plaaslike Ekonomiese Ontwikkeling (PEO) plan en die gepaste Opvangsgebied Bestuurs Plan (OBP) inaggeneem. Water is 'n beperkende faktor tot ontwikkeling in die Letaba opvangsgebied. Omrede, word die vier plase se impak op die watertoestand van die gebied bepaal, sowel as die bydrae tot die visie van die regulatoriese owerhede. 'n Opstelling van die studie-area is gemaak met die Soil and Water Assessment Tool ten einde hidrologiese a eidings te maak. Hierdeur is bepaal of die visies en doelwitte soos gestel deur die beplanningsdokumente vir ontwikkeling, realisties is ten opsigte van die waterbeskikbaarheid. Die studie het bevestig dat die ligging van 'n plaas 'n bepalende faktor is tot die plaas se uitwerking op die gebied se water. Die ontwikkelde Geïntegreerde Evalueringsmodel kombineer die visies en doelwitte van die bogenoemde strategiese dokumente om die bydrae van 'n klein plaas te meet. Die evalueringsresultate verskaf insigte rondom die ooreenstemming van plase teenoor die visie van 'n streek en kan nuttig gepas kom wanneer spesi eke aksies beplan word om 'n gemeenskaplike doelwit te bereik. Kleinskaalse boerdery is in lyn met die doelwitte soos bepaal deur die OBP, GVLOS en WTH. Die bydrae wat die plase ten opsigte van die NOP en NRVO se ideale maak is egter beperk. Verder verskil die resultate grootliks vir elke plaas ten opsigte van die bydrae gelewer tot die visies van die GOP, ROR en PEO. Gewensde resultate ten opsigte van bydrae tot ontwikkelingsvisies het nie ooreengestem met die liggings wat aanbeveel is deur die hidrologiese studie nie. Dus moet hidrologiese inligting inaggeneem word tydens besluitneming vir die ontwikkeling van kleinskaalse boerdery. Die Geïntegreerde Evalueringsmodel bied waarde, is toeganklik en is toepaslik om kleinskaalse boerdery te meet tenoor die visies van regulatoriese owerhede.

The plantation forestry is economically a very important industry in South Africa because it promotes the upliftment of many rural South African communities. However, afforestation has significant impacts on water use and biodiversity in a catchment. Thus, understanding the effects of afforestation on water resources at the catchment level is fundamental for optimal water resource allocation, long-term sustainable use, development and conservation. Much of the Limpopo Province is climatically and physiographically suitable for plantation forestry but it only contains approximately 4.7 % of the total existing plantation area in South Africa. For example, the size of the Letaba Catchment of the Limpopo Province is 13 669 km² but only approximately 484 km² of it is currently afforested. This study aims to identify potential areas for further afforestation in the Letaba Catchment using the Water Resources Modelling Platform (WReMP) model to determine if afforestation can be expanded here to promote development in South Africa‟s poorest Province. / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)

Hydrological models are widely used tools in water resources estimation, but they are simple representations of reality and are frequently based on inadequate input data and uncertainties in parameter values. Data observation networks are expensive to establish and maintain and often beyond the resources of most developing countries. Consequently, measurements are difficult to obtain and observation networks in many countries are shrinking, hence obtaining representative observations in space and time remains a challenge. This study presents some guidelines on the identification, quantification and reduction of sources of uncertainty in water resources estimation in southern Africa, a data scarce region. The analyses are based on example sub-basins drawn from South Africa and the application of the Pitman hydrological model. While it has always been recognised that estimates of water resources availability for the region are subject to possible errors, the quantification of these uncertainties has never been explicitly incorporated into the methods used in the region. The motivation for this study was therefore to contribute to the future development of a revised framework for water resources estimation that does include uncertainty. The focus was on uncertainties associated with climate input data, parameter estimation (and recognizing the uncertainty due model structure deficiencies) methods and water use data. In addition to variance based measures of uncertainty, this study also used a reservoir yield based statistic to evaluate model output uncertainty, which represents an integrated measure of flow regime variations and one that can be more easily understood by water resources managers. Through a sensitivity analysis approach, the results of the individual contribution of each source of uncertainty suggest regional differences and that clear statements about which source of uncertainty is likely to dominate are not generally possible. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used in identifying parameters which are important withinspecific sub-basins and therefore those to focus on in uncertainty analysis. The study used a simple framework for evaluating the combined contribution of uncertainty sources to model outputs that is consistent with the model limitations and data available, and that allows direct quantitative comparison between model outputs obtained by using different sources of information and methods within Spatial and Time Series Information Modelling (SPATSIM) software. The results from combining the sources of uncertainties showed that parameter uncertainty dominates the contribution to model output uncertainty. However, in some parts of the country especially those with complex topography, which tend to experience high rainfall spatial variability, rainfall uncertainty is equally dominant, while the contributions of evaporation and water use data uncertainty are relatively small. While the results of this study are encouraging, the weaknesses of the methods used to quantify uncertainty (especially subjectivity involved in evaluating parameter uncertainty) should not be neglected and require further evaluations. An effort to reduce data and parameter uncertainty shows that this can only be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality improves. Perhaps the focus should be on maintaining existing networks and concentrating research efforts on making the most out of the emerging data products derived from remote sensing platforms. While this study presents some initial guidelines for evaluating uncertainty in South Africa, there is need to overcome several constraints which are related to data availability and accuracy, the models used and the capacity or willingness to adopt new methods that incorporate uncertainty. The study has provided a starting point for the development of new approaches to modelling water resources in the region that include uncertain estimates.

MESHWR / Department of Hydrology and Water Resources / See the attached abstract below