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31	Initialiser et calibrer un modèle de microsimulation dynamique stochastique : application au modèle SimVillages / Initialize and Calibrate a Dynamic Stochastic Microsimulation Model : application to the SimVillages Model Lenormand, Maxime 12 December 2012 (has links) Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l’exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d’une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d’étude, de carrière, d’union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants : 1 / un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d’un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l’emploi. Cette population synthétique est l’état initial du modèle. 2 / un modèle permettant de simuler une table d’origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. 3 / un modèle permettant d’estimer le nombre d’emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d’habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. 4 / une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d’échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation. / The purpose of this thesis is to develop statistical tools to initialize and to calibrate dynamic stochastic microsimulation models, starting from their application to the SimVillages model (developed within the European PRIMA project). This model includes demographic and economic dynamics applied to the population of a set of rural municipalities. Each individual, represented explicitly in a household living in a municipality, possibly working in another, has its own life trajectory. Thus, model includes rules for the choice of study, career, marriage, birth children, divorce, migration, and death. We developed, implemented and tested the following models : • a model to generate a synthetic population from aggregate data, where each individual lives in a household in a municipality and has a status with regard to employment. The synthetic population is the initial state of the model. • a model to simulate a table of origin-destination commuting from aggregate data in order to assign a place of work for each individual working outside his municipality of residence. • a sub-model to estimate the number of jobs in local services in a given municipality in terms of its number of inhabitants and its neighbors in terms of service. • a method to calibrate the unknown SimVillages model parameters in order to satisfy a set of criteria. This method is based on a new Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm using importance sampling. When applied to a toy example and to the SimVillages model, our algorithm is 2 to 8 times faster than the three main sequential ABC algorithms currently available. Microsimulation Modèle Complexe Modèle Individus Centré Modèle Stochastique Calibration Initialisation Population Synthétique Iterative Proportional Updating Modèle de Réseaux de Navettage Modèle de Déplacement Loi de Gravité Mobilité Humaine Réseau Spatial Besoin Minimal Service de Proximité Régression Quantile Municipalité Rurale Calcul Bayésien Approché Population Monte Carlo Sequential Monte Carlo Microsimulation Complex Model Individual Based Models Stochastic Models Calibration Initialisation Synthetic Population Sample-Free Iterative Proportional Updating Network Generation Models Commuting Patterns Commuting Networks Gravity Law Human Mobility Spatial Networks Minimum Requirement Proximity Service Jobs Quantile Regression Rural Municipality Approximate Bayesian Computation Population Monte Carlo Sequential Monte Carlo
32	Methodological investigations on vegetation typology and phytogeography of rain forests of tropical Africa Senterre, Bruno B.M.L. 17 June 2005 (has links) I. An original methodological discussion is proposed on the problem of the typology of tropical rain forest’s plant communities, based on the study of forest types across gradients of continentality and elevation, within Atlantic central Africa. These investigations were based on the statement that the main problems in forest typology are related to the non-zonal or zonal character of the different vegetation types and to non considering the relations and differences between forest strata. II. Field data consisted in phytosociological homogeneous sample plots localized within different recognized phytogeographical entities, in a region of tropical Africa where these entities are known to be well conserved. A total of 37 such plots were inventoried in the region extending from the littoral forests of Ndoté, Equatorial Guinea, which are wet evergreen forests, to the continental forests of the Dja, Cameroon, known as evergreen seasonal forests. The studied region also included the oriental Atlantic forests of Equatorial Guinea, known as moist evergreen forests or caesalp forests. In various parts of this continentality gradient, some plots were localized within climax non-zonal formations, namely the submontane rain forests. The emphasis was put on the vegetation of the Monte Alén National Park. The sampling methodology was willing to be as "complete ", including all strata, "quantitative ", enumerating all individuals, and "representative ", within each stratum, as possible. These multi-layers plots were realised using nested sub-plots, with a sampling size of 100 individuals for every ligneous stratum recognized (dominant trees, dominated trees and shrubs) and a sampling size of 200m² for the herbaceous and suffrutex stratum. Forest types were defined independently for each stratum and the differences were analysed. A method was proposed for the simultaneous analysis of all floristic data, converting and standardizing the values from ligneous strata, on the one hand, and from understorey strata, on the other hand. III. Ten forest types were described using IndVal and discussed in the general context of the guineo-congolian region, from a syntaxonomic view point (agglomerative classification) and from a phytogeographical view point (divisive classification). Homologies between these two approaches are described. The proposed phytogeographical system is based on an "open " conception of hierarchical classifications, combining advantages of agglomerative and divisive classifications. In concrete terms, the non-zonal criteria, for example the submontane variants, are categorised separately and in analogy with the zonal criteria, related to the usual phytochoria. Analysis of ecological relationships for the 10 communities showed that the main variables related to the floristic variability in our mainland rain forests are elevation, rainfall, hygrometry (estimated using bryophytes cover levels) and distance to the ocean. The two extremes on the vertical microclimatic gradient, dominant trees stratum and herbaceous stratum, give similar typologies, however canonical analysis showed that for the herbaceous layer, non-zonal variables (hygrometry and elevation) were gaining more importance when the influence of the two zonal variables was attenuated. In every case, spatial autocorrelation was less important than the environment in explaining floristic variability but its role increased in the spatial arrangement of understorey species, whose dispersal capacity is generally lower than canopy trees. The phytosociological, phytogeographical and ecological description of forest types is accompanied by a physiognomical description using biological types spectrum, as well as architectural models, leaf sizes, etc. With regard to diversity, we have demonstrated that species richness was higher from upper to lower strata because of the accumulation in lower strata of species from various strata. On the other hand, the proper stratum diversity, i.e. the structural set, decreased from dominant trees to shrubs. The proper diversity of the herb layer showed relatively high figures mainly due to the higher individual density in relation to the existence of microstrata. Within the 37 sample plots, 1,050 taxa have been identified to species or morpho-species levels, for a total of 25,750 individuals. These taxa represent 442 genus among 104 families. The richest forest type is found on the foothills of the Niefang range, on the windward side. This forest type is also characterised by a high number of oligotypic genus and by species belonging to functional types indicators of glacial refuges. These functional types are defined on the basis of the dispersal capacity and on kind of stand needed for effective germination. We formulated the hypothesis that this kind of "foothills refuge ", characterised by his zonal nature, could have been one of the rare refuges for species from mainland rain forests, while montane and fluvial refuges would mainly have preserved species from non-zonal forest types: (sub)montane and riverine. Based on indicator species of submontane forests, a potential distribution map of this forest type has been realised at the Atlantic central African scale. More than 400 submontane forest localities have been mapped. These forests begin at 400m of altitude near the ocean, and progressively at higher altitude for increasing distance to the ocean. Many lowland localities also comprised submontane species, which could indicate the existence of ecological transgressions. These transgressions would allow migratory tracks for submontane species between isolated mountain ranges, not only during glacial periods, through heights at the northern and southern borders of the congo basin, but also contemporarily through the lowland riverine forest network, in the centre of this basin. Finally, a special attention has been attributed to littoral forests and to some cases of choroecological transgressions, coupled to the ecological equalization phenomenon. plant diversity foothills refuge glacial refuge environmental stability conservation rarefaction curves individuals-area curves species-area curves compensations écologiques Guinée Equatoriale Monte Alén Monts de Cristal Réserve de Ndoté rainforest transgression Monte Alén Cristal mountains strate forestière sous-bois ensemble structural groupe écologique modèles architecturaux guilde types fonctionnels synusie genres monotypiques genres paucispecifiques diversité végétale courbes aire-espèces courbes individus-espèces courbes de raréfaction courbes aire-constance aire minimale morpho-espèces pléistocène constancy-area curves minimal area structural ensemble understorey ecological group synusia oligotypic genus Réserve de Biosphère du Dja Cameroun Quaternaire glaciation refuge glaciaire refuge de pied de massifs montagneux stabilité environnementale conservation transgression forestière phytosociology plant community phytogeography open classification non-zonal nested plots forest types IndVal morphospecies pleistocene littoral forest rain forest afromontane submontane altitudinal belt glaciation Quaternary Equatorial Guinea ecological equalization continentality continentalité étage d’altitude forêt littorale forêt dense humide afromontagnard submontagnard IndVal types forestiers phytosociologie phytogéographie classification ouverte azonal relevés emboîtés multistrates monotypic genus architectural model guild plant functional type Ndoté Reserve Cameroon Dja Biosphere Reserve forest stratum forest layer understory
33	Recherches méthodologiques pour la typologie de la végétation et la phytogéographie des forêts denses d'Afrique tropicale Senterre, Bruno 17 June 2005 (has links) I. An original methodological discussion is proposed on the problem of the typology of tropical rain forest’s plant communities, based on the study of forest types across gradients of continentality and elevation, within Atlantic central Africa. These investigations were based on the statement that the main problems in forest typology are related to the non-zonal or zonal character of the different vegetation types and to non considering the relations and differences between forest strata.<p><p>II. Field data consisted in phytosociological homogeneous sample plots localized within different recognized phytogeographical entities, in a region of tropical Africa where these entities are known to be well conserved. A total of 37 such plots were inventoried in the region extending from the littoral forests of Ndoté, Equatorial Guinea, which are wet evergreen forests, to the continental forests of the Dja, Cameroon, known as evergreen seasonal forests. The studied region also included the oriental Atlantic forests of Equatorial Guinea, known as moist evergreen forests or caesalp forests. In various parts of this continentality gradient, some plots were localized within climax non-zonal formations, namely the submontane rain forests. The emphasis was put on the vegetation of the Monte Alén National Park.<p><p>The sampling methodology was willing to be as "complete ", including all strata, "quantitative ", enumerating all individuals, and "representative ", within each stratum, as possible. These multi-layers plots were realised using nested sub-plots, with a sampling size of 100 individuals for every ligneous stratum recognized (dominant trees, dominated trees and shrubs) and a sampling size of 200m² for the herbaceous and suffrutex stratum.<p><p>Forest types were defined independently for each stratum and the differences were analysed. A method was proposed for the simultaneous analysis of all floristic data, converting and standardizing the values from ligneous strata, on the one hand, and from understorey strata, on the other hand.<p><p>III. Ten forest types were described using IndVal and discussed in the general context of the guineo-congolian region, from a syntaxonomic view point (agglomerative classification) and from a phytogeographical view point (divisive classification). Homologies between these two approaches are described. The proposed phytogeographical system is based on an "open " conception of hierarchical classifications, combining advantages of agglomerative and divisive classifications. In concrete terms, the non-zonal criteria, for example the submontane variants, are categorised separately and in analogy with the zonal criteria, related to the usual phytochoria.<p><p>Analysis of ecological relationships for the 10 communities showed that the main variables related to the floristic variability in our mainland rain forests are elevation, rainfall, hygrometry (estimated using bryophytes cover levels) and distance to the ocean. The two extremes on the vertical microclimatic gradient, dominant trees stratum and herbaceous stratum, give similar typologies, however canonical analysis showed that for the herbaceous layer, non-zonal variables (hygrometry and elevation) were gaining more importance when the influence of the two zonal variables was attenuated. In every case, spatial autocorrelation was less important than the environment in explaining floristic variability but its role increased in the spatial arrangement of understorey species, whose dispersal capacity is generally lower than canopy trees. The phytosociological, phytogeographical and ecological description of forest types is accompanied by a physiognomical description using biological types spectrum, as well as architectural models, leaf sizes, etc.<p><p>With regard to diversity, we have demonstrated that species richness was higher from upper to lower strata because of the accumulation in lower strata of species from various strata. On the other hand, the proper stratum diversity, i.e. the structural set, decreased from dominant trees to shrubs. The proper diversity of the herb layer showed relatively high figures mainly due to the higher individual density in relation to the existence of microstrata. Within the 37 sample plots, 1,050 taxa have been identified to species or morpho-species levels, for a total of 25,750 individuals. These taxa represent 442 genus among 104 families. The richest forest type is found on the foothills of the Niefang range, on the windward side. This forest type is also characterised by a high number of oligotypic genus and by species belonging to functional types indicators of glacial refuges. These functional types are defined on the basis of the dispersal capacity and on kind of stand needed for effective germination. We formulated the hypothesis that this kind of "foothills refuge ", characterised by his zonal nature, could have been one of the rare refuges for species from mainland rain forests, while montane and fluvial refuges would mainly have preserved species from non-zonal forest types: (sub)montane and riverine.<p><p>Based on indicator species of submontane forests, a potential distribution map of this forest type has been realised at the Atlantic central African scale. More than 400 submontane forest localities have been mapped. These forests begin at 400m of altitude near the ocean, and progressively at higher altitude for increasing distance to the ocean. Many lowland localities also comprised submontane species, which could indicate the existence of ecological transgressions. These transgressions would allow migratory tracks for submontane species between isolated mountain ranges, not only during glacial periods, through heights at the northern and southern borders of the congo basin, but also contemporarily through the lowland riverine forest network, in the centre of this basin. Finally, a special attention has been attributed to littoral forests and to some cases of choroecological transgressions, coupled to the ecological equalization phenomenon.<p> / Doctorat en sciences agronomiques et ingénierie biologique / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished Sciences exactes et naturelles Agronomie générale Phytogeography -- Africa, Sub-Saharan Forest surveys -- Africa, Sub-Saharan Phytogéographie -- Afrique noire Inventaires forestiers -- Afrique noire submontane afromontane rain forest littoral forest pleistocene morphospecies IndVal forest types nested plots non-zonal open classification phytogeography plant community phytosociology transgression forestière conservation stabilité environnementale refuge de pied de massifs montagneux refuge glaciaire glaciation Quaternaire Cameroun Réserve de Biosphère du Dja oligotypic genus synusia ecological group understorey structural ensemble minimal area constancy-area curves pléistocène morpho-espèces aire minimale courbes aire-constance courbes de raréfaction courbes individus-espèces courbes aire-espèces diversité végétale genres paucispecifiques genres monotypiques synusie types fonctionnels guilde modèles architecturaux groupe écologique ensemble structural sous-bois strate forestière Cristal mountains Monte Alén rainforest transgression Réserve de Ndoté Monts de Cristal Guinée Equatoriale compensations écologiques species-area curves individuals-area curves rarefaction curves environmental stability glacial refuge foothills refuge plant diversity altitudinal belt Quaternary Equatorial Guinea ecological equalization continentality continentalité étage d’altitude forêt littorale forêt dense humide afromontagnard submontagnard types forestiers phytosociologie phytogéographie classification ouverte azonal relevés emboîtés multistrates monotypic genus architectural model guild plant functional type Ndoté Reserve Cameroon Dja Biosphere Reserve forest stratum forest layer understory

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